Rising gas prices could end up as a boon for sellers of electric vehicles, including Tesla and Rivian Automotive.
"Affordability was already the EV theme of 2026, so recent events only amplify that," Andrew Garberson, head of growth and research at Recurrent, which tracks EV data, told MarketWatch over email.
Retail gasoline prices climbed to $3.36 per gallon in the U.S., up almost 38 cents compared with a week ago, according to AAA. The last time a similar jump happened was four years ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine, AAA said.
Several industry experts have already placed their bets, with estimates ranging from $5 to $5.50 if the price of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, hits $150 a barrel. For gas, that’s an increase of around 50% from the current national average of $3.36, according to Gas Buddy.
Meanwhile, AAA said the cost to fuel up an EV at a public charging station remained unchanged at 39 cents per kilowatt hour of electricity. The average EV can drive about 33 miles per kilowatt hour, according to Electric Choice, an energy marketplace run by a consulting firm.
After a relatively strong year in 2025, electric-vehicle sales are predicted to slow overall in 2026, undercut by the expiration of tax credits in September. Several automakers also pulled back on planned EV investments.
The price of a new EV fell to $55,715 on average in January, down slightly from a year earlier, even as automakers offered fewer incentives, according to Kelley Blue Book data. Gas-powered cars sold for $49,191 on average, up 1.9% from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, Garberson noted that the market for used EVs grew 35% in 2025 compared with a year earlier as prices fell. The average listing price for a used EV was $35,442 in January, down 5.1% from a year earlier.
That trend could continue. Up to 500,000 EVs are expected to come onto the used market in 2026, potentially driving prices even lower, according to Recurrent.
Garberson also expects new EVs - like Rivian Automotive's (RIVN) upcoming R2 SUV and Kia's (KR:000270) EV3 compact SUV - to draw more attention than comparable gas-powered cars. Tesla $(TSLA)$ could also win over customers with its cheaper Model Y and Model 3 cars. And the Nissan (JP:7201) Leaf starts at under $32,000, making it one of the cheapest EVs on the market.
"Every signal that I see from the market reinforces that rising gas prices will only continue to make affordable EV models more attractive," Garberson told MarketWatch.
See: Trump professes no concern about gasoline prices despite jump over past week
However, it's unclear exactly how much of a difference the cost to power a car will make for consumers. While that has been a major selling point of electric cars and hybrids for years, some consumers have been reluctant to ditch their gas guzzlers.
In a AAA survey of U.S. adults last year, only 16% said they were either "very likely" or "likely" to buy an EV as their next car, the lowest percentage in six years. Meanwhile, 63% of respondents said they were "unlikely" or "very unlikely" to purchase an electric car.
"Even though 77% of the 16% who are interested cited gas savings as their top motivation to purchase, AAA believes there may be a near-term ceiling on consumer adoption of battery electric vehicles due to their costs, charging accessibility, and range anxiety," AAA told MarketWatch over email.
Automakers are working on each of those areas, but there is more to be done.
Most major companies have signed deals for their EVs to charge on Tesla's network, which operates the largest U.S. network of fast chargers. Many carmakers, including Ford $(F)$ and General Motors $(GM)$, also have plans to sell more affordable EVs.
