At a press conference, Chan Ka-long, General Manager of FSMOne (Hong Kong), pointed out that based on an 11-fold target P/E, the target prices for the Hang Seng Index at the end of this year, 27, and 28 are close to 25,000 points, about 27,000 points, and 29,000 points, respectively. Based on a target P/E of 12 times, the MSCI China Index has target prices of 79.2 and 96 for this year and 2028, respectively.
Li Xu, an analyst in the Portfolio Management and Research Department of FSMOne (Hong Kong), pointed out that with the rise of high-quality stocks, such as the AI model stock MiniMax (00100), which has seen strong price increases,Zhipu(02513) may be included in the index, which could regain its upward momentum. In addition, we are optimistic about the continued enthusiasm of the Hong Kong IPO market and the continuous inflow of northbound capital, which has led to a target price of 29,000 points for 2028.
Chen Jialang also believes that the AI hardware craze will continue, and strong semiconductor and memory manufacturers will continue to lead the stock market. As for Hong Kong stocks, with supporting factors such as the accelerated commercialization of AI models, there is still room for revaluation in the valuations of technology companies. In addition, with the expected price war in the food delivery industry and clear regulatory signals, the performance of major internet platforms may improve, supporting the profit recovery of the technology sector.
In the United States, he believes the current interest rate cut cycle has ended. Fluctuating energy prices have a significant impact on inflation, and the real concern is the gradually recovering housing CPI. New Federal Reserve Chairman Wash's stance is clearly dovish, and he expects the conflict among Fed officials to become even more serious.
Chen Jialang believes that inflationary pressures will keep long-term bond yields high, while short-term bond yields will also rise due to unexpected rate hike expectations. With the yield curve now largely normalized, investors can prioritize short-term bonds, extend the duration to 5 to 10 years in the US Treasury Bond, and remain optimistic about investment-grade corporate bonds.
