Ameren (AEE) may have a potential additional capex opportunity of $3.5 billion to $5 billion as rising electricity demand creates a capacity shortfall in Missouri in the 2030s, RBC Capital Markets said Friday in a preview of the utility's 2026 integrated resource plan.
Citing the company's load forecasts provided in testimony supporting Ameren's proposed West Alton gas plant, the investment firm said average capacity shortfall is estimated at 900 megawatts in the summer and about 1,700 megawatts in winter from 2030 through 2039. Fuel cells and solar power with storage could help fill the gap, the firm said.
If the full $4.3 billion midpoint of the estimated spending opportunity were included in Ameren's next five-year capital plan, the firm calculated that its rate base could grow about 12.5% annually and earnings per share about 9% annually, while some of the spending may fall outside that plan, according to the note.
The firm raised its 2030 earnings estimate by 3% to reflect potential higher spending, with the revised figure about 2% above Wall Street's consensus estimate.
RBC Capital Markets reiterated a sector perform rating on Ameren and lowered the price target to $107 from $114.
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