To The Moon

The S&P 500's nine-day rally - its longest winning streak in nearly 20 years - came to an abrupt end on Monday, marking a stark reversal after the index had nearly recovered losses triggered by early April's "reciprocal tariffs" rhetoric. This rally had been fueled by the Trump administration's decision to suspend additional tariffs and positive signals from trade negotiations.Tariff Policy Uncertainty ResurfacesWhile the S&P 500 closed May 2 with a 1.5% gain to secure its ninth consecutive daily advance, markets remained under the cloud of tariff policy risks. Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson and his team emphasized that maintaining this upward trajectory would require concrete progress on trade agreements.The anticipated trade deal optimism evaporated abruptly on May 5 wh

Last week, easing tariff tensions between the US and China boosted market risk appetite, while Fed Chair Powell’s continued hawkishness had little impact on metals. Gold prices hit new highs and copper stabilized, both benefiting from inflationary pressures and improved tariff expectations.Market Performance OverviewPrecious metals saw strong gains: COMEX gold rose 2.65% and silver 1.09%. Industrial metals also performed well, with COMEX copper up 3.35% and SHFE copper up 1.33%. Notably, the domestic Chinese gold market outpaced global gains, highlighting robust local investment demand.Copper Market InsightsAfter sharp previous swings, copper prices steadied last week. Easing US-China tariff rhetoric supported market sentiment, even though substantial action is pending. Interestingly, Powe

I. How did @666 Dazi make $1.55 million?Last week, the US stock market experienced a sharp decline followed by a significant rebound. This historic market movement caused panic among many investors.A futures trader named 666 Dazi posted a screenshot early on Friday, April 12, showing a profit of $1.55 million. He is likely another mysterious big shot.From his brief sharing, it appears that he made a profit of $1.55 million by shorting one contract of $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2506(NQmain)$ .It is worth noting that on April 10, the Nasdaq fell by 852 points, rose by 2,121 points on April 9, and fell by 1,165 points on April 4. The historic volatility of the market last week was evident to all.In the futures market, such volatility can indeed le

As global markets react to mounting uncertainties, gold has emerged as the standout performer in the financial landscape. This analysis examines the recent surge in gold prices, the underlying factors driving this movement, and what experts predict for the precious metal's future trajectory amid evolving economic policies and market sentiment.Gold Reaches Historic Heights Amid Global UncertaintyOn Wednesday (April 16), COMEX gold broke through the $3,300 per ounce threshold, setting a new historical high. Since the beginning of 2025, international gold prices have cumulatively risen by more than 25%, a performance significantly outpacing other assets1. This remarkable rally comes against a backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty and shifting investor sentiment.With Trump's frequ

The US stock market is undergoing significant turmoil, with concerns over the economy intensifying. President Trump’s announcement of large-scale tariffs has triggered a wave of panic selling in global markets. Further complicating the market outlook, several economic indicators point toward the possibility of a recession. Experts believe that whether the market will experience another massive sell-off depends largely on whether fears of an imminent economic recession are debunked.Growing Recession Risk in the US EconomyEconomic Data Signals Trouble AheadRecent economic predictions paint a grim picture. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting model has downgraded its outlook for first-quarter 2025 US real GDP growth from 2.3% to a contraction of 2.825%, marking the worst quarter for the US ec

Since mid-March, international crude oil prices have experienced a rebound. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures rose from $65.6 per barrel on March 10 to $69.37 per barrel by March 25, an increase of about 5.7%. Similarly, ICE Brent crude oil futures rose from $68.65 per barrel to $72.54 per barrel during the same period.This price rally is driven by supply-side disruptions, including geopolitical crises and U.S. sanctions, which have led to downward revisions in crude oil production forecasts for 2025. OPEC+'s implementation of compensatory production cuts has eased concerns about oversupply. However, factors such as China’s shift to new energy vehicles and reduced oil demand in the U.S. due to tariffs and fiscal tightening make it unlikely that crude oil will break away from its oversupply trend

U.S. Economy Facing Rising Risks of RecessionSince January, recession risks in the U.S. economy have become increasingly salient. Optimistic market sentiment has subsided, and policy shifts under the Trump administration—including tariff hikes, federal budget cuts, and layoffs at Doge Corporation—have significantly dampened economic momentum.Key indicators show evident deterioration:On March 11, the U.S. 10-year treasury yield fell to 4.28%, down from January's optimistic peak of 4.79%. The U.S. Dollar Index also sharply declined from 110.17 (January 13) to 103.39 (March 11).The Atlanta Fed drastically cut its Q1 2025 GDP growth forecast from 3.9% to -2.4%, citing weak consumer spending and net exports.Recent retail sales figures notably missed expectations, consumption growth slowed sharp

Recently, the market has been volatile. Futures for $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2503(NQmain)$ , $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ , $China A50 Index - main 2503(CNmain)$ , $Hang Seng Index - main 2503(HSImain)$ , $WTI Crude Oil - main 2504(CLmain)$ , $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2503(ESmain)$ have been observed to rise significantly and trade actively in Tiger Trade community.In particular, the inquiry for $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2503(NQmain)$ has reached a new high.At the s

In January and February 2025, copper prices both domestically and internationally have shown signs of strengthening. This trend is driven by two key factors: expectations of copper supply shortages and a recovery in copper demand, both domestically and abroad. Reflecting on the surge in copper prices from February to May 2024, it was primarily fueled by market optimism about increased copper consumption due to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI). However, weaker-than-expected domestic copper consumption subsequently limited the price rally.Looking ahead, we anticipate a renewed upward trend in copper prices. The primary drivers include a tightening copper supply worldwide, which has led to negative spot market treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) for copper concentrates. Additio

As the COMEX gold futures price edges closer to the $3,000/oz threshold, the current gold market demonstrates a price rally driven by strengthened technical patterns and underlying spot arbitrage dynamics. This momentum is further characterized by two prominent features. With market-wide concerns that Trump’s tariff policies might impose duties on physical gold imported into the U.S., this speculation could push gold prices towards a short squeeze above 3,000 points. Thus, this issue warrants a closer examination.Two Unusual Features in the Gold Futures Market1. Expanding Cross-Market Price SpreadThe price spread between London spot gold and COMEX futures has widened to exceed 2.5 times the historical standard deviation. At present, this arbitrage creates a risk-free profit margin of over