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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-26
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-24
Like and comment thanks
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-20
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-19
haiz
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-19
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OPEC + agrees to increase oil production, ending current stalemate
7月18日，在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后，欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示，该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日，直到所有闲置的产能都恢复，根据协议，阿联酋、伊拉克和
OPEC + agrees to increase oil production, ending current stalemate
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-18
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-16
Ok
Foreign media headlines: The Fed ignores hot inflation! The market contains unexpected risks
全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有： 1、鲍威尔再次被追问通胀问题 称美联储正关注风险 2、El-Erian：美联储无视通胀火爆 将面临政策失误或市场意外风险 3、央行数字货币或对
Foreign media headlines: The Fed ignores hot inflation! The market contains unexpected risks
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-15
Hi
The window of the bull market is about to close
且行且珍惜
The window of the bull market is about to close
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-14
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U.S. inflation continues to fever, and it's time to test the Fed
美国6月物价再度爆表，美联储的“通胀暂时论”还能否站得住脚，以及货币政策将如何作出应对，成为市场关注的焦点。北京时间周二晚间公布的数据显示，美国6月CPI及核心CPI环比、同比均高于预期及前值，多项数据创新高。今年以来，美国通胀节节走高，但美联储一直坚称物价上涨只是“暂时的”，随着疫情封锁进一步放松、供应赶上被压抑的需求，通胀将消退。当地时间周三和周四，美联储主席鲍威尔将接受国会议员的质询。
U.S. inflation continues to fever, and it's time to test the Fed
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-13
Ok
Pre-market: U.S. stock Q2 earnings season opens! U.S. CPI data hits
7月13日（周二），高盛、摩根大通今日盘前公布财报，拉开美股第二季度财报期帷幕，美国公布6月CPI数据。 美国6月季调后CPI月率0.9%，前值0.60%，预期0.50%，创2008年6月以来新高；美
Pre-market: U.S. stock Q2 earnings season opens! U.S. CPI data hits
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It also capped a stalemate that had rattled traders.</p><p>OPEC + agreed to a new baseline for the UAE's crude oil production cuts of 3.5 million barrels per day, which will take effect in May 2022.</p><p>In addition to the United Arab Emirates, other OPEC + members are also expected to obtain new production reduction benchmarks, with Iraq and Kuwait increasing their production baselines by 150,000 barrels per day each.</p><p>OPEC + agreed to adjust the benchmark oil production of Saudi Arabia and Russia to 11.5 million barrels per day from the previous 11 million barrels per day starting in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + also agreed to further relax production cuts from August, with a new crude oil production reduction baseline taking effect in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + has reached an agreement on crude oil production. The next OPEC + meeting will be held on September 21, agreeing to extend the production reduction agreement until the end of 2022.</p><p>The OPEC draft statement shows that OPEC + plans to completely cancel the 5.8 million barrels per day production cut before September 2022, when market conditions permit.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC + agrees to increase oil production, ending current stalemate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC + agrees to increase oil production, ending current stalemate\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-18 19:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 18, OPEC and its allies agreed to gradually increase oil supplies to the market after Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates settled a dispute that blocked the agreement. Delegates at the meeting said that the organization will increase production by up to 400,000 barrels per day per month until all idle production capacity is restored. Under the agreement, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait will receive higher production quotas from May 2022. The deal will ease the looming supply tightness and reduce the risk of higher oil prices. It also capped a stalemate that had rattled traders.</p><p>OPEC + agreed to a new baseline for the UAE's crude oil production cuts of 3.5 million barrels per day, which will take effect in May 2022.</p><p>In addition to the United Arab Emirates, other OPEC + members are also expected to obtain new production reduction benchmarks, with Iraq and Kuwait increasing their production baselines by 150,000 barrels per day each.</p><p>OPEC + agreed to adjust the benchmark oil production of Saudi Arabia and Russia to 11.5 million barrels per day from the previous 11 million barrels per day starting in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + also agreed to further relax production cuts from August, with a new crude oil production reduction baseline taking effect in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC + has reached an agreement on crude oil production. The next OPEC + meeting will be held on September 21, agreeing to extend the production reduction agreement until the end of 2022.</p><p>The OPEC draft statement shows that OPEC + plans to completely cancel the 5.8 million barrels per day production cut before September 2022, when market conditions permit.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba0e918dfd4ec815c4f78fc4cfc3ea3e","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160796593","content_text":"7月18日，在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后，欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示，该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日，直到所有闲置的产能都恢复，根据协议，阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特从2022年5月起将获得更高的产量配额。协议将缓解迫在眉睫的供应紧张，并降低油价上涨的风险。这也为一场令交易员不安的僵局画上了句号。\nOPEC+同意阿联酋的原油减产新基线为350万桶/日，将于2022年5月开始生效。\n除了阿联酋，其他OPEC+成员也有望获得新的减产基准，伊拉克和科威特的产量基线分别提高15万桶/天。\n欧佩克+同意从2022年5月开始，将沙特和俄罗斯的基准石油产量从之前的1100万桶/日调整为1150万桶/日。\nOPEC+还同意从8月起进一步放宽减产，新的原油减产基准线将于2022年5月生效。\n欧佩克+已经就原油生产问题达成协议，下一次欧佩克+会议将在9月21日举行，同意将减产协议延长至2022年底。\n欧佩克草案声明显示，欧佩克+计划在2022年9月之前，在市场条件允许的情况下，全面取消580万桶/日的减产。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179244800,"gmtCreate":1626540410500,"gmtModify":1703761588666,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179244800","repostId":"1130243635","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170187109,"gmtCreate":1626412770401,"gmtModify":1703759678064,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170187109","repostId":"2151575910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151575910","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626384989,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151575910?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-16 05:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines: The Fed ignores hot inflation! The market contains unexpected risks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151575910","media":"新浪财经","summary":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、鲍威尔再次被追问通胀问题 称美联储正关注风险\n\n\n2、El-Erian：美联储无视通胀火爆 将面临政策失误或市场意外风险\n\n\n3、央行数字货币或对","content":"<p><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Powell was once again questioned about inflation, saying the Fed is paying attention to risks</b><b>2. El-Erian: The Fed will face policy mistakes or market surprise risks if it ignores hot inflation</b><b>3. Central bank digital currencies may compete with cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin accelerates its decline amid such concerns</b><b>4. U.S. residential sales decline, buyers' competition leads to scarce market stock</b><b>5. Fed Evans: More progress needs to be made on employment before tapering</b><b>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists warn of Ark Fund repeating'bull trap 'from dot-com era</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839101c234b07aa0606aef304368acf7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Powell asked again about inflation, saying Fed is watching risks</b></p><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell defended the stance of keeping policy accommodative for the second day in a row, despite inflation reaching troubling levels.</p><p>He told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday: \"This shock that the system has experienced is related to the restart of the economy and has pushed the inflation rate well above 2%, and of course we are uneasy about this.\"</p><p>Powell called the current price rise a \"unique\" phenomenon in history and said the Fed is closely observing whether its expectations of temporarily high inflation are correct and whether inflation may last longer.</p><p>\"So we're trying to understand the basics and the risks,\" he said.</p><p>Powell said that the price surge so far has largely been in limited segments such as used cars, reiterating that he expects these increases to be temporary.</p><p>\"This is temporary, and from this perspective, it doesn't make sense to react to it,\" he said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034fc45bd0cb53c1c7b4b56d452cc8a7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>El-Erian: The Fed will face the risk of policy mistakes or market surprises if it ignores hot inflation</b></p><p>El-Erian, chief economic adviser of Allianz, published a column saying that it is a serious fact that both CPI and PPI in the United States have risen. It shows that the inflation rate that actually happens is being accompanied by additional inflation rates in the making. This goes against the Fed's repeated view that inflation is transitory, especially as the base effect has largely faded out.</p><p>A big event this week was Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's congressional hearing on Wednesday, when he acknowledged that inflation has been higher than the Fed's expectations and has lasted longer. When it comes to policy implications, however, he immediately reverts to the oft-repeated \"temporary\" mantra in favor of unchanged policy stance. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of new york, delivered a similar message on Monday, confirming that two of the three most influential Fed officials--who are also the policymakers that the market is most concerned about--still prefer to maintain ultra-stimulating policies, despite the repeated underestimation of economic growth and inflation.</p><p>El-Erian believes that the longer the Fed's current policy allocation lasts, the greater the risk of monetary policy mistakes. And the longer the economy-policy disconnect lasts, the more risk-taking behaviors in the market will be, and the greater the risk of unexpected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0aeb4f41704121f0f395f77be2e94e0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Central bank digital currencies may compete with cryptocurrencies Bitcoin accelerates its decline amid such concerns</b></p><p>The outlook for cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) has once again become the focus of attention. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized at a hearing this week that it needs to be done the right way. At the same time, the European Central Bank has taken a major step towards digital currency, approving the digital euro project to enter the \"investigation phase\", which may eventually lead to the implementation of the digital euro around the middle of 2021-2030.</p><p>\"With the world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Exploring the idea of digital currencies, investors realize that there is a lot of competition in the space. This could dilute the valuation of some digital assets currently in use, \"said Brian Vendig, president of MJP Wealth Advisors. \"Investors are weighing a lot of things, and digital assets may lose some of their shine due to their instability.\"</p><p>The prospect of central banks developing digital currencies may put pressure on cryptocurrencies, a view shared by others. Susannah Streeter, senior investment and market analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: \"The loss of cryptocurrency edge comes amid growing speculation about the impact of digital currency rollout by various central banks.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ae005dad5c04b425766f93266c60b9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. residential sales fall, buyer scramble leads to scarce market stock</b></p><p>In the most competitive real estate market in U.S. history, sales are beginning to stall.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDFN\">Redfin Corp</a>Seasonally adjusted data showed that the transaction volume of real estate in the United States fell by 1.2% month-on-month in June, the largest monthly decline in the same period since records began in 2012. Inventory has reached the lowest level in history, and it is sold within 14 days of listing on average, which is the fastest speed ever.</p><p>Remote work, coupled with extremely low mortgage rates, has sent buyers flocking to American suburbs and affordable cities. The median home price in June rose 25% from a year earlier to a record $386,888.</p><p>\"We are entering a new phase in the housing market,\" Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said in an announcement. \"Price increases are beyond the reach of many buyers.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d5a82b4786c64628f5a7379187ad40\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fed Evans: More progress on jobs needed before tapering</b></p><p>Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said on Thursday that U.S. employment growth was lower than he expected and that the job market needed more improvement before the Federal Reserve began to reduce support for the economy.</p><p>Evans said: \"Given that job growth has been lower than I expected in recent months, I would say that we still need to do more to reach the threshold of'substantial further progress' in adjusting the monetary policy stance.\"</p><p>Evans said it will take \"more than a few months\" to determine the right time to reduce the weight.</p><p>On the issue of inflation, Evans said he is confident enough that high inflation will be temporary. If inflation looks more persistent, then the Fed may need to adjust its stance earlier.</p><p>Evans believes that the United States will see substantial further progress before the end of the year, and still believes that the Fed will make a rate hike in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deb2be8133054345917ff3f2e7aca29e\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists warn of Ark Fund repeating'bull trap 'from dot-com era</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Shawn Quigg believes that Cathie Wood's flagship ETF is showing a lot of bubbly nature, similar to the growth stock fund in 2000, and investors should consider shorting it through options.</p><p>The derivatives strategist believes a second-half rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields could trigger<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>(symbol ARKK) fell. The fund has gained about 19% since mid-May.</p><p>\"Entering a bull trap reversal,\" Quigg wrote in a client note Thursday. \"Potential rising yields could be a catalyst to accelerate ARKK's decline, coupled with large conventional tech stocks continuing to outperform disruptive tech stocks, prompting ARKK to enter a sell-off phase.\"</p><p>The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield has fallen more than 40 basis points from its recent high in late March to around 1.32%, helping to fuel ARKK's rally. Quigg believes this is a technical trend that will reverse as the economy reopens trading and regains its foothold for the rest of the year.</p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines: The Fed ignores hot inflation! The market contains unexpected risks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines: The Fed ignores hot inflation! The market contains unexpected risks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-16 05:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Powell was once again questioned about inflation, saying the Fed is paying attention to risks</b><b>2. El-Erian: The Fed will face policy mistakes or market surprise risks if it ignores hot inflation</b><b>3. Central bank digital currencies may compete with cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin accelerates its decline amid such concerns</b><b>4. U.S. residential sales decline, buyers' competition leads to scarce market stock</b><b>5. Fed Evans: More progress needs to be made on employment before tapering</b><b>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists warn of Ark Fund repeating'bull trap 'from dot-com era</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839101c234b07aa0606aef304368acf7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Powell asked again about inflation, saying Fed is watching risks</b></p><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell defended the stance of keeping policy accommodative for the second day in a row, despite inflation reaching troubling levels.</p><p>He told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday: \"This shock that the system has experienced is related to the restart of the economy and has pushed the inflation rate well above 2%, and of course we are uneasy about this.\"</p><p>Powell called the current price rise a \"unique\" phenomenon in history and said the Fed is closely observing whether its expectations of temporarily high inflation are correct and whether inflation may last longer.</p><p>\"So we're trying to understand the basics and the risks,\" he said.</p><p>Powell said that the price surge so far has largely been in limited segments such as used cars, reiterating that he expects these increases to be temporary.</p><p>\"This is temporary, and from this perspective, it doesn't make sense to react to it,\" he said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034fc45bd0cb53c1c7b4b56d452cc8a7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>El-Erian: The Fed will face the risk of policy mistakes or market surprises if it ignores hot inflation</b></p><p>El-Erian, chief economic adviser of Allianz, published a column saying that it is a serious fact that both CPI and PPI in the United States have risen. It shows that the inflation rate that actually happens is being accompanied by additional inflation rates in the making. This goes against the Fed's repeated view that inflation is transitory, especially as the base effect has largely faded out.</p><p>A big event this week was Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's congressional hearing on Wednesday, when he acknowledged that inflation has been higher than the Fed's expectations and has lasted longer. When it comes to policy implications, however, he immediately reverts to the oft-repeated \"temporary\" mantra in favor of unchanged policy stance. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of new york, delivered a similar message on Monday, confirming that two of the three most influential Fed officials--who are also the policymakers that the market is most concerned about--still prefer to maintain ultra-stimulating policies, despite the repeated underestimation of economic growth and inflation.</p><p>El-Erian believes that the longer the Fed's current policy allocation lasts, the greater the risk of monetary policy mistakes. And the longer the economy-policy disconnect lasts, the more risk-taking behaviors in the market will be, and the greater the risk of unexpected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0aeb4f41704121f0f395f77be2e94e0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Central bank digital currencies may compete with cryptocurrencies Bitcoin accelerates its decline amid such concerns</b></p><p>The outlook for cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) has once again become the focus of attention. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized at a hearing this week that it needs to be done the right way. At the same time, the European Central Bank has taken a major step towards digital currency, approving the digital euro project to enter the \"investigation phase\", which may eventually lead to the implementation of the digital euro around the middle of 2021-2030.</p><p>\"With the world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Exploring the idea of digital currencies, investors realize that there is a lot of competition in the space. This could dilute the valuation of some digital assets currently in use, \"said Brian Vendig, president of MJP Wealth Advisors. \"Investors are weighing a lot of things, and digital assets may lose some of their shine due to their instability.\"</p><p>The prospect of central banks developing digital currencies may put pressure on cryptocurrencies, a view shared by others. Susannah Streeter, senior investment and market analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: \"The loss of cryptocurrency edge comes amid growing speculation about the impact of digital currency rollout by various central banks.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ae005dad5c04b425766f93266c60b9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. residential sales fall, buyer scramble leads to scarce market stock</b></p><p>In the most competitive real estate market in U.S. history, sales are beginning to stall.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDFN\">Redfin Corp</a>Seasonally adjusted data showed that the transaction volume of real estate in the United States fell by 1.2% month-on-month in June, the largest monthly decline in the same period since records began in 2012. Inventory has reached the lowest level in history, and it is sold within 14 days of listing on average, which is the fastest speed ever.</p><p>Remote work, coupled with extremely low mortgage rates, has sent buyers flocking to American suburbs and affordable cities. The median home price in June rose 25% from a year earlier to a record $386,888.</p><p>\"We are entering a new phase in the housing market,\" Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said in an announcement. \"Price increases are beyond the reach of many buyers.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d5a82b4786c64628f5a7379187ad40\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fed Evans: More progress on jobs needed before tapering</b></p><p>Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said on Thursday that U.S. employment growth was lower than he expected and that the job market needed more improvement before the Federal Reserve began to reduce support for the economy.</p><p>Evans said: \"Given that job growth has been lower than I expected in recent months, I would say that we still need to do more to reach the threshold of'substantial further progress' in adjusting the monetary policy stance.\"</p><p>Evans said it will take \"more than a few months\" to determine the right time to reduce the weight.</p><p>On the issue of inflation, Evans said he is confident enough that high inflation will be temporary. If inflation looks more persistent, then the Fed may need to adjust its stance earlier.</p><p>Evans believes that the United States will see substantial further progress before the end of the year, and still believes that the Fed will make a rate hike in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deb2be8133054345917ff3f2e7aca29e\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists warn of Ark Fund repeating'bull trap 'from dot-com era</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Shawn Quigg believes that Cathie Wood's flagship ETF is showing a lot of bubbly nature, similar to the growth stock fund in 2000, and investors should consider shorting it through options.</p><p>The derivatives strategist believes a second-half rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields could trigger<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>(symbol ARKK) fell. The fund has gained about 19% since mid-May.</p><p>\"Entering a bull trap reversal,\" Quigg wrote in a client note Thursday. \"Potential rising yields could be a catalyst to accelerate ARKK's decline, coupled with large conventional tech stocks continuing to outperform disruptive tech stocks, prompting ARKK to enter a sell-off phase.\"</p><p>The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield has fallen more than 40 basis points from its recent high in late March to around 1.32%, helping to fuel ARKK's rally. Quigg believes this is a technical trend that will reverse as the economy reopens trading and regains its foothold for the rest of the year.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-07-16/doc-ikqciyzk5721733.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-07-16/doc-ikqciyzk5721733.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151575910","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、鲍威尔再次被追问通胀问题 称美联储正关注风险\n\n\n2、El-Erian：美联储无视通胀火爆 将面临政策失误或市场意外风险\n\n\n3、央行数字货币或对加密货币构成竞争 比特币在这种担忧中加速下跌\n\n\n4、美国住宅销量下滑 买家争抢导致市场存量稀缺\n\n\n5、美联储埃文斯：在减码之前需在就业方面取得更多进展\n\n\n6、摩根大通策略师警告Ark Fund重蹈网络泡沫时代的“牛市陷阱”\n\n\n鲍威尔再次被追问通胀问题 称美联储正关注风险\n尽管通胀达到令人不安的水平，美联储主席鲍威尔还是连续第二天为保持政策宽松的立场辩护。\n他于周四对参议院银行业委员会表示：“系统经受的这个冲击与经济重启有关，并使通胀率远超2%，当然我们对此感到不安。”\n鲍威尔将当前价格上涨称为史上“独特”现象，并表示美联储正密切观察其关于通胀暂时高企的预期是否正确，通胀是否可能持续更久。\n“所以我们正努力了解基本情形及风险，”他表示。\n鲍威尔表示，迄今为止价格飙升的主要是二手车等有限领域，重申他预计这些上涨是暂时的。\n“这是暂时的，就这个角度而言，对此作出反应没有意义，”他说道。\n\nEl-Erian：美联储无视通胀火爆 将面临政策失误或市场意外风险\n安联首席经济顾问El-Erian发表专栏文章称，美国CPI和PPI双双走高是严重的事实。它表明，实际发生的通胀率正伴随着酝酿中的额外通胀率。这有悖于美联储一再认为通胀是暂时的观点，尤其是在基数效应已经基本淡出的情况下。\n本周的一个重要事件是美联储主席鲍威尔周三的国会听证会，当时他承认通胀一直高于美联储预期，并且持续时间更长。然而，在谈到政策影响时，他立即回到了经常重复的“暂时性”口头禅，以支持政策立场不变。纽约联邦储备银行行长John Williams周一传递了类似的信息，证实了三位最有影响力美联储官员中的两位--这也是市场最为关注的决策者--仍然倾向于维持超刺激性政策，尽管经济增速和通胀一再被低估。\nEl-Erian认为，美联储当前政策配置持续的时间越长，货币政策出现失误的风险就越大。而经济-政策脱节持续的时间越长，市场中的冒险行为就会越多，出现意外的风险也就越大。\n\n央行数字货币或对加密货币构成竞争 比特币在这种担忧中加速下跌\n加密货币和央行数字货币（CBDC）前景再度成为关注焦点。美联储主席鲍威尔在本周听证会上强调，需要以正确方式做这件事。与此同时，欧洲央行向数字货币迈出重大一步，批准数字欧元项目进入“调查阶段”，这可能最终使数字欧元在2021-2030年中期左右落地。\n“随着世界各地中央银行探讨数字货币的想法，投资者意识到该领域存在很多竞争。这可能会稀释目前使用的一些数字资产的估值，”MJP Wealth Advisors总裁 Brian Vendig表示。“投资者正在权衡很多因素，数字资产可能因其不稳定性而失去一些光芒。”\n央行开发数字货币的前景可能给加密货币带来压力，这个观点得到了其他人赞同。Hargreaves Lansdown高级投资和市场分析师 Susannah Streeter表示：“加密货币失去优势正值人们对各央行推出数字货币的影响抱有越来越多猜测。”\n\n美国住宅销量下滑 买家争抢导致市场存量稀缺\n在美国历史上竞争最激烈的房地产市场，销售开始停滞。\nRedfin Corp．的季节性因素调整后数据显示，美国6月份房产交易量环比下降1.2%，是2012年有记录以来最大同期月度降幅。库存达到历史最低，平均挂牌14天即售出，是有史以来最快速度。\n远程工作加上极低的抵押贷款利率，令大量买家涌向美国郊区和房价实惠的城市。6月房价中值较上年同期上涨25%，达到创纪录的386，888美元。\n“我们进入了房地产市场的新阶段，”Redfin首席经济学家Daryl Fairweather在一份公告中说。“价格上涨超出了许多买家的承受能力。”\n\n美联储埃文斯：在减码之前需在就业方面取得更多进展\n芝加哥联邦储备银行行长查尔斯-埃文斯（Charles Evans）周四表示，美国就业增长低于他的预期，在美联储开始减少对经济的支持之前，就业市场还需要更多的改善。\n埃文斯称：“鉴于最近几个月就业增长低于我的预期，我要说的是，我们还需要做更多的事情，才能达到调整货币政策立场的‘实质性的进一步进展’的门槛。”\n埃文斯表示，需要“几个月多”的时间来确定减码的合适时机。\n在通胀问题上，埃文斯表示，他有足够的信心，认为高通胀将是暂时的。如果通胀看起来更持久，那么美联储可能需要早些调整立场。\n埃文斯认为，美国将在年底前看到实质性的进一步进展，仍认为美联储将于2024年加息。\n\n摩根大通策略师警告Ark Fund重蹈网络泡沫时代的“牛市陷阱”\n摩根大通的Shawn Quigg认为，Cathie Wood的旗舰ETF正在显示出很多泡沫性质，类似于2000年的增长股基金，投资者应考虑通过期权做空它。\n这位衍生品策略师认为，美国国债收益率下半年的上升可能会触发ARK Innovation ETF（代码ARKK）下跌。该基金自5月中旬以来已上涨约19%。\n“进入牛市陷阱逆转，”Quigg在周四的客户报告中写道。“潜在的收益率上升可能是加速ARKK下跌的催化剂，加上大型常规性科技股继续跑赢破坏性科技股，促使ARKK进入抛售阶段。”\n美国10年期国债收益率已经从3月底的近期高点下跌逾40个基点，至1.32%左右，帮助推动了ARKK的反弹。Quigg认为这是一个技术性行情，随着经济重开交易在今年余下时间里重新立足，上述行情将逆转。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147870589,"gmtCreate":1626353164641,"gmtModify":1703758460728,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147870589","repostId":"2151217519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151217519","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626315521,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151217519?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 10:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The window of the bull market is about to close","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151217519","media":"格隆汇","summary":"且行且珍惜","content":"<p>The Fed chairman has told the world more than once that inflation is temporary.</p><p>Economic data is keeping betting on the other side, though.</p><p>On July 13, local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month in June, both significantly exceeding market expectations of 5% and 0.5%, and also setting a record high in 1991. The highest record since November.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888eb42e4db3b0c5c87cb722b4696fea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Even taking into account the low base caused by the epidemic last year, the deterioration of inflation data is still visible to the naked eye. After excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose by as much as 4.5% year-on-year. However, through the previous foreshadowing, the reaction of the capital market has become more and more dull. Last night, the three major U.S. stock indexes only fell slightly by about 0.3%, and there was little change in U.S. debt and gold.</p><p>Whether the market continues to believe Powell's argument or not, for the Fed, the contradiction between inflationary pressures and monetary easing to stimulate the economy is becoming increasingly fierce.</p><p>As Fed official Daly said,<b>While it is too early to talk about rate hike, it is appropriate to start talking about tapering bond purchases.</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1</h3><h3><b>Taper, who has been shouting for several months, when will he come?</b></h3></p><p>The Federal Reserve is very good at doing \"expectation adjustment\", releasing signals to the market from time to time. If it is hawkish and dovish, it can be released for a full year, giving investors enough time to take precautions and hedge. After several repetitions, more than half of the people bet on the policy, and the Fed's turn is much smoother.</p><p>Since the U.S. CPI crossed the 2% safety margin in March, more and more investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will reduce its bond purchases (Taper) and even rate hike within the year. Although Powell's monetary policy framework is anchored to the economy and employment, short-term inflation can be tolerated before these two goals are achieved, but it does not rule out that persistent excessive inflation will change the attitude of the FED.</p><p>However, it is obviously unrealistic to change the Fed's monetary policy immediately in the short term. After all, the situation is already like this. Whether immediate action is needed no longer depends on how much inflationary pressure is, but how the Fed judges it.</p><p>According to the monetary policy report released by the Federal Reserve on July 9, the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but there are structural problems in the labor market, and the surge in labor demand exceeds the recovery in labor supply; Supply chain bottlenecks have eased, but historically high order backlogs and historically low customer inventories indicate that supply chain pressure is still considerable.</p><p>Regardless of the statement of Fed officials, the market's expectations are nothing more than the following four. Four consecutive months of inflation data have continuously moved the market's expected inflection point forward. If the PPI data released next also exceeds expectations, the pressure on the production side will continue to be transmitted to the consumer side, which will further deepen the market's concerns, and the expectation of exit action will continue to advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faac576652e8615d3304495446b7b963\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, the more accepted view is that the Federal Reserve will signal to reduce bond purchases at its annual symposium in Jackson Hole in August. It is expected that it will focus on hints and releases first, and when it will be implemented? The forecasts of Fed officials and institutions are focused on the end of this year and early next year. Before that, the FOMC meeting at the end of July may reveal some key information.</p><p>There may still be many uncertainties in the short term, but in the long term, everyone is convinced that the inflection point of global liquidity will eventually come.</p><p><b>At this juncture, the domestic central bank unexpectedly lowered the reserve requirement ratio again, releasing about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity. However, looking at the current economic data trend, the reason is very reasonable.</b></p><p>Due to the large recovery gap in various countries during last year's epidemic, China's rapid recovery and its huge and complete manufacturing supply capacity have received a wave of foreign trade dividends. The rapid economic growth is due to a large number of overseas export orders. But now, with the epidemic control and the increase in vaccination rates in developed countries in the United States and Europe, the economy and society have returned to normal, orders have begun to return, and the demand for China's foreign trade will decline significantly. Economic data in recent months show that the global manufacturing While the PMI boom has strengthened, China's new export orders have dropped significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27915c35665b835d06bac810fc988107\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In this context, it has become the consensus of all parties that the downward pressure on China's economy is increasing, and the currency is biased towards loosening again, precisely to hedge this impact in advance.</p><p>But in the past 10 years, the average interest rate spread between China and the United States was 133BP. In September last year, the interest rate spread between China and the United States was 235BP, but now it is only 155 BP. From this perspective, the room for easing has been greatly reduced. Once the United States starts to collect water, the flexibility of monetary policy The space will become much narrower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34f62f4dead8f935be9c3003e61ec66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nowadays, the mismatch between the monetary policies of China and the United States has caused new concerns in the market. How much room do we have for maneuvering and deploying?</p><p>However, yesterday Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, expressed his views,<b>He believes that the discussion on the shift of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has little impact on China's monetary policy and financial markets.</b></p><p>Where does this confidence come from?</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>Has the ten-year pursuit of monetary independence come true?</b></h3>We might as well look back at what has happened in the past 20 years.</p><p>After China's accession to the WTO in 2001, the economic interdependence of China and the United States deepened, and everything seemed to be developing in a beautiful direction. China's GDP growth rate exceeded 10% year after year, and it became a veritable factory of the world. The United States was able to continue to play finance and real estate.</p><p>However, in 2008, everything came to an abrupt end.</p><p>A serious financial crisis broke out in the United States, which quickly swept the world. China also suffered greatly from it, and rushed to launch the \"4 trillion\" rescue plan. This has caused a \"rift\" in the cooperative relationship between China and the United States. In fact, both sides are reflecting on what has gone wrong in the past eight years.</p><p>It is believed that after China's accession to the WTO, the United States has removed its own manufacturing industry more unscrupulously, and the emptiness of the real economy has led to the excessive expansion of the virtual economy, especially finance, which is the root of the crisis, so Obama shouted the banner of the return of the manufacturing industry.</p><p>China, on the other hand, has a more subtle attitude. The United States relies too much on the status of the US dollar and debt expansion to develop its economy, which determines that the cyclical fluctuations of the US dollar will be more violent. However, the United States can use the world to hedge the fluctuations of the US dollar, while other countries do not have this strength, especially those that are deeply bound to the United States. Monetary policy can only follow passively. When the US dollar expands, it has a good life, but when the US dollar contracts, it is often accompanied by a sharp economic downturn. Before the financial crisis, China enjoyed the WTO dividend for many years, and evolved into a proud \"export-oriented economy\". With the advent of the economic crisis, the demand in Europe and America declined rapidly, and foreign trade plummeted. Accompanied by the closure of a large number of export manufacturing industries and the rapid expansion of unemployed population, this is the manifestation.</p><p><b>In a country with a large size and a large population like China, stability is more important than anything else.</b></p><p>Therefore, after stabilizing the economic situation, China has also begun a series of adjustments, the most important of which is to follow its own path. To put it more bluntly, it is to find a way to get out of the lessons learned from over-binding the United States.</p><p>As for the specific practices, the Belt and Road Initiative is one, infrastructure + real estate is one, the shift from export dependence to stimulating domestic demand is also one, and<b>The adjustment of monetary policy.</b></p><p>In 2009, China began to try to do foreign trade with some neighboring countries, directly using people's settlement, which promoted the rapid increase of the international use of RMB. In 2009, the foreign trade settlement volume of RMB was only a few billion yuan. In 2015, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time.</p><p>In 2015, under the \"811 Exchange Rate Reform\", the RMB was changed from a single peg to the US dollar to selecting several major currencies, giving corresponding weights to form a currency basket. At the same time, based on market supply and demand, the changes of the RMB multilateral exchange rate index were calculated with reference to a basket of currencies, so as to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level and form a managed floating exchange rate system.</p><p><b>In short, it has shifted from \"single anchor\" to \"multi-anchor\".</b></p><p>In this process, China paid a lot of prices. For example, after the \"811 exchange rate reform\", the RMB exchange rate depreciated rapidly, coupled with loopholes in foreign exchange control, countless enterprises took advantage of this loophole to constantly arbitrage foreign exchange and export overseas, and China lost 900 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3a271c3dc1fe350866d5bcc7957488\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the whole, the results are still great. At least, China has gradually shown its independence in the choice of monetary policy. This may be the confidence that Director Sun said.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>What does the mismatch between Chinese and American currencies bring?</b></h3>In the second half of 2015, the Federal Reserve entered a rate hike cycle, and almost all emerging economies were wiped out. Some countries were particularly tragic. The currencies of Brazil, South Africa and Turkey all fell to record lows, and Brazil's GDP hit the largest drop in history.</p><p><b>As the \"811\" exchange rate reform seized the opportunity and took the initiative to defend itself, the depreciation rate of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was at a low level in emerging markets, avoiding the outbreak of systemic risks. In monetary policy, China has also shown more independence than ever before. Before 2008, the monetary policies of China, the United States and Europe tended to be synchronized; After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the pace of the People's Bank of China deviated from the pace of the United States and Europe, and it was one step ahead in collecting and releasing water.</b></p><p>For example, from December 2015 to December 2018, the Federal Reserve held 9 joint rate hike, and the Federal Funds rate increased to 2.25%-2.50%. At this time, China is cutting interest rates. On March 1, May 11, June 28, and August 26, 2015, the one-year loan benchmark interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.6% to 4.6%, and the one-year deposit benchmark interest rate was also lowered by 0.25 percentage points several times to 1.75%; The benchmark interest rates of other grades of loans and deposits, and the interest rates of personal housing provident fund deposits and loans will be adjusted accordingly.</p><p>In the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve once again released a lot of water, but the economic cycles and monetary policies of China and the United States once again mismatched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f86c69384ada404e06c2c0346b5823\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two mismatches were not deliberately pursued, but more decisions made by China based on its own actual situation. For example, in 2015, it needed to solve the problem of local debt maturity and high real estate inventory. In 2020, it was through rapid epidemic prevention and control, replacing the old path of relying purely on monetary stimulus with export dividends. This RRR cut is also quite similar to that of 2015.</p><p><b>However, this independence does not mean completely ignoring the Federal Reserve. After all, the locomotive of the global economy is still the United States. It is precisely because we want to strike a balance between the Federal Reserve and our own national conditions. Of course, what China needs to face next is how to deal with issues such as RMB depreciation pressure and capital outflow if the Federal Reserve tightens the pace of liquidity significantly ahead of schedule due to inflationary pressure.</b></p><p>The second half of the year may be much more difficult than we expected. Externally, we face the risk of export reduction, and the currency needs to worry about the pressure brought by the Fed's monetary inflection point. The window for relatively loose liquidity is limited; Internally, the investment motivation is insufficient, and the effect of the internal circular economy driven by consumption with high hopes is not significant enough. Once the funds are tightened, many small, medium and micro enterprises will face the shortage of demand and funds like last year.</p><p>Under the combined action of internal and external pressures, the central bank's next more likely actions on monetary policy may not be to relax liquidity or join the ranks of obvious tightening, but more likely to be total volume control, structural adjustment, directional guidance, and strict control of the idling of regulatory funds. Truly guide liquidity to where it really should go, such as small, medium and micro enterprises, people's livelihood economy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">Innovation and Technology</a>, green economy, etc.</p><p>The country now has a clear goal of boosting the vitality of domestic enterprises and people's consumption economy, and its kinetic energy is also very strong. From this, we can also imagine that any obstacles that affect the realization of this goal will continue to be suppressed and cleaned up, such as real estate speculation, anti-monopoly, education, medical care and so on.</p><p>But in either case, it may not be a very optimistic situation for the capital market.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3><b>The stock price depends on the industry in the long term, fundamentals in the medium term, and liquidity in the short term.</b></p><p>From March last year to the present, we have experienced a typical process from \"economic improvement, monetary easing\" to \"economic improvement, monetary tightening\", and Big A has also changed from general growth to differentiation and grouping.</p><p>What happened in the third quadrant of the figure below-differentiation is happening. If the next currency is really tight, then the fourth quadrant-the mourning capital market will probably repeat itself, but it's just a matter of how much.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07795caec6befd3c17e9d5e3dab7b3ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When investing, we must not hesitate to decide whether to stay or not with the worst expectations, and listen to the thunder in silent places.</p><p>As for those investors who failed to make money in the first half of the year, time and opportunities may not be much.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The window of the bull market is about to close</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe window of the bull market is about to close\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 10:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Fed chairman has told the world more than once that inflation is temporary.</p><p>Economic data is keeping betting on the other side, though.</p><p>On July 13, local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month in June, both significantly exceeding market expectations of 5% and 0.5%, and also setting a record high in 1991. The highest record since November.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888eb42e4db3b0c5c87cb722b4696fea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Even taking into account the low base caused by the epidemic last year, the deterioration of inflation data is still visible to the naked eye. After excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose by as much as 4.5% year-on-year. However, through the previous foreshadowing, the reaction of the capital market has become more and more dull. Last night, the three major U.S. stock indexes only fell slightly by about 0.3%, and there was little change in U.S. debt and gold.</p><p>Whether the market continues to believe Powell's argument or not, for the Fed, the contradiction between inflationary pressures and monetary easing to stimulate the economy is becoming increasingly fierce.</p><p>As Fed official Daly said,<b>While it is too early to talk about rate hike, it is appropriate to start talking about tapering bond purchases.</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1</h3><h3><b>Taper, who has been shouting for several months, when will he come?</b></h3></p><p>The Federal Reserve is very good at doing \"expectation adjustment\", releasing signals to the market from time to time. If it is hawkish and dovish, it can be released for a full year, giving investors enough time to take precautions and hedge. After several repetitions, more than half of the people bet on the policy, and the Fed's turn is much smoother.</p><p>Since the U.S. CPI crossed the 2% safety margin in March, more and more investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will reduce its bond purchases (Taper) and even rate hike within the year. Although Powell's monetary policy framework is anchored to the economy and employment, short-term inflation can be tolerated before these two goals are achieved, but it does not rule out that persistent excessive inflation will change the attitude of the FED.</p><p>However, it is obviously unrealistic to change the Fed's monetary policy immediately in the short term. After all, the situation is already like this. Whether immediate action is needed no longer depends on how much inflationary pressure is, but how the Fed judges it.</p><p>According to the monetary policy report released by the Federal Reserve on July 9, the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but there are structural problems in the labor market, and the surge in labor demand exceeds the recovery in labor supply; Supply chain bottlenecks have eased, but historically high order backlogs and historically low customer inventories indicate that supply chain pressure is still considerable.</p><p>Regardless of the statement of Fed officials, the market's expectations are nothing more than the following four. Four consecutive months of inflation data have continuously moved the market's expected inflection point forward. If the PPI data released next also exceeds expectations, the pressure on the production side will continue to be transmitted to the consumer side, which will further deepen the market's concerns, and the expectation of exit action will continue to advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faac576652e8615d3304495446b7b963\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, the more accepted view is that the Federal Reserve will signal to reduce bond purchases at its annual symposium in Jackson Hole in August. It is expected that it will focus on hints and releases first, and when it will be implemented? The forecasts of Fed officials and institutions are focused on the end of this year and early next year. Before that, the FOMC meeting at the end of July may reveal some key information.</p><p>There may still be many uncertainties in the short term, but in the long term, everyone is convinced that the inflection point of global liquidity will eventually come.</p><p><b>At this juncture, the domestic central bank unexpectedly lowered the reserve requirement ratio again, releasing about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity. However, looking at the current economic data trend, the reason is very reasonable.</b></p><p>Due to the large recovery gap in various countries during last year's epidemic, China's rapid recovery and its huge and complete manufacturing supply capacity have received a wave of foreign trade dividends. The rapid economic growth is due to a large number of overseas export orders. But now, with the epidemic control and the increase in vaccination rates in developed countries in the United States and Europe, the economy and society have returned to normal, orders have begun to return, and the demand for China's foreign trade will decline significantly. Economic data in recent months show that the global manufacturing While the PMI boom has strengthened, China's new export orders have dropped significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27915c35665b835d06bac810fc988107\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In this context, it has become the consensus of all parties that the downward pressure on China's economy is increasing, and the currency is biased towards loosening again, precisely to hedge this impact in advance.</p><p>But in the past 10 years, the average interest rate spread between China and the United States was 133BP. In September last year, the interest rate spread between China and the United States was 235BP, but now it is only 155 BP. From this perspective, the room for easing has been greatly reduced. Once the United States starts to collect water, the flexibility of monetary policy The space will become much narrower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34f62f4dead8f935be9c3003e61ec66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nowadays, the mismatch between the monetary policies of China and the United States has caused new concerns in the market. How much room do we have for maneuvering and deploying?</p><p>However, yesterday Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, expressed his views,<b>He believes that the discussion on the shift of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has little impact on China's monetary policy and financial markets.</b></p><p>Where does this confidence come from?</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>Has the ten-year pursuit of monetary independence come true?</b></h3>We might as well look back at what has happened in the past 20 years.</p><p>After China's accession to the WTO in 2001, the economic interdependence of China and the United States deepened, and everything seemed to be developing in a beautiful direction. China's GDP growth rate exceeded 10% year after year, and it became a veritable factory of the world. The United States was able to continue to play finance and real estate.</p><p>However, in 2008, everything came to an abrupt end.</p><p>A serious financial crisis broke out in the United States, which quickly swept the world. China also suffered greatly from it, and rushed to launch the \"4 trillion\" rescue plan. This has caused a \"rift\" in the cooperative relationship between China and the United States. In fact, both sides are reflecting on what has gone wrong in the past eight years.</p><p>It is believed that after China's accession to the WTO, the United States has removed its own manufacturing industry more unscrupulously, and the emptiness of the real economy has led to the excessive expansion of the virtual economy, especially finance, which is the root of the crisis, so Obama shouted the banner of the return of the manufacturing industry.</p><p>China, on the other hand, has a more subtle attitude. The United States relies too much on the status of the US dollar and debt expansion to develop its economy, which determines that the cyclical fluctuations of the US dollar will be more violent. However, the United States can use the world to hedge the fluctuations of the US dollar, while other countries do not have this strength, especially those that are deeply bound to the United States. Monetary policy can only follow passively. When the US dollar expands, it has a good life, but when the US dollar contracts, it is often accompanied by a sharp economic downturn. Before the financial crisis, China enjoyed the WTO dividend for many years, and evolved into a proud \"export-oriented economy\". With the advent of the economic crisis, the demand in Europe and America declined rapidly, and foreign trade plummeted. Accompanied by the closure of a large number of export manufacturing industries and the rapid expansion of unemployed population, this is the manifestation.</p><p><b>In a country with a large size and a large population like China, stability is more important than anything else.</b></p><p>Therefore, after stabilizing the economic situation, China has also begun a series of adjustments, the most important of which is to follow its own path. To put it more bluntly, it is to find a way to get out of the lessons learned from over-binding the United States.</p><p>As for the specific practices, the Belt and Road Initiative is one, infrastructure + real estate is one, the shift from export dependence to stimulating domestic demand is also one, and<b>The adjustment of monetary policy.</b></p><p>In 2009, China began to try to do foreign trade with some neighboring countries, directly using people's settlement, which promoted the rapid increase of the international use of RMB. In 2009, the foreign trade settlement volume of RMB was only a few billion yuan. In 2015, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time.</p><p>In 2015, under the \"811 Exchange Rate Reform\", the RMB was changed from a single peg to the US dollar to selecting several major currencies, giving corresponding weights to form a currency basket. At the same time, based on market supply and demand, the changes of the RMB multilateral exchange rate index were calculated with reference to a basket of currencies, so as to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level and form a managed floating exchange rate system.</p><p><b>In short, it has shifted from \"single anchor\" to \"multi-anchor\".</b></p><p>In this process, China paid a lot of prices. For example, after the \"811 exchange rate reform\", the RMB exchange rate depreciated rapidly, coupled with loopholes in foreign exchange control, countless enterprises took advantage of this loophole to constantly arbitrage foreign exchange and export overseas, and China lost 900 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3a271c3dc1fe350866d5bcc7957488\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But on the whole, the results are still great. At least, China has gradually shown its independence in the choice of monetary policy. This may be the confidence that Director Sun said.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>What does the mismatch between Chinese and American currencies bring?</b></h3>In the second half of 2015, the Federal Reserve entered a rate hike cycle, and almost all emerging economies were wiped out. Some countries were particularly tragic. The currencies of Brazil, South Africa and Turkey all fell to record lows, and Brazil's GDP hit the largest drop in history.</p><p><b>As the \"811\" exchange rate reform seized the opportunity and took the initiative to defend itself, the depreciation rate of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was at a low level in emerging markets, avoiding the outbreak of systemic risks. In monetary policy, China has also shown more independence than ever before. Before 2008, the monetary policies of China, the United States and Europe tended to be synchronized; After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the pace of the People's Bank of China deviated from the pace of the United States and Europe, and it was one step ahead in collecting and releasing water.</b></p><p>For example, from December 2015 to December 2018, the Federal Reserve held 9 joint rate hike, and the Federal Funds rate increased to 2.25%-2.50%. At this time, China is cutting interest rates. On March 1, May 11, June 28, and August 26, 2015, the one-year loan benchmark interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.6% to 4.6%, and the one-year deposit benchmark interest rate was also lowered by 0.25 percentage points several times to 1.75%; The benchmark interest rates of other grades of loans and deposits, and the interest rates of personal housing provident fund deposits and loans will be adjusted accordingly.</p><p>In the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve once again released a lot of water, but the economic cycles and monetary policies of China and the United States once again mismatched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f86c69384ada404e06c2c0346b5823\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two mismatches were not deliberately pursued, but more decisions made by China based on its own actual situation. For example, in 2015, it needed to solve the problem of local debt maturity and high real estate inventory. In 2020, it was through rapid epidemic prevention and control, replacing the old path of relying purely on monetary stimulus with export dividends. This RRR cut is also quite similar to that of 2015.</p><p><b>However, this independence does not mean completely ignoring the Federal Reserve. After all, the locomotive of the global economy is still the United States. It is precisely because we want to strike a balance between the Federal Reserve and our own national conditions. Of course, what China needs to face next is how to deal with issues such as RMB depreciation pressure and capital outflow if the Federal Reserve tightens the pace of liquidity significantly ahead of schedule due to inflationary pressure.</b></p><p>The second half of the year may be much more difficult than we expected. Externally, we face the risk of export reduction, and the currency needs to worry about the pressure brought by the Fed's monetary inflection point. The window for relatively loose liquidity is limited; Internally, the investment motivation is insufficient, and the effect of the internal circular economy driven by consumption with high hopes is not significant enough. Once the funds are tightened, many small, medium and micro enterprises will face the shortage of demand and funds like last year.</p><p>Under the combined action of internal and external pressures, the central bank's next more likely actions on monetary policy may not be to relax liquidity or join the ranks of obvious tightening, but more likely to be total volume control, structural adjustment, directional guidance, and strict control of the idling of regulatory funds. Truly guide liquidity to where it really should go, such as small, medium and micro enterprises, people's livelihood economy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">Innovation and Technology</a>, green economy, etc.</p><p>The country now has a clear goal of boosting the vitality of domestic enterprises and people's consumption economy, and its kinetic energy is also very strong. From this, we can also imagine that any obstacles that affect the realization of this goal will continue to be suppressed and cleaned up, such as real estate speculation, anti-monopoly, education, medical care and so on.</p><p>But in either case, it may not be a very optimistic situation for the capital market.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3><b>The stock price depends on the industry in the long term, fundamentals in the medium term, and liquidity in the short term.</b></p><p>From March last year to the present, we have experienced a typical process from \"economic improvement, monetary easing\" to \"economic improvement, monetary tightening\", and Big A has also changed from general growth to differentiation and grouping.</p><p>What happened in the third quadrant of the figure below-differentiation is happening. If the next currency is really tight, then the fourth quadrant-the mourning capital market will probably repeat itself, but it's just a matter of how much.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07795caec6befd3c17e9d5e3dab7b3ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When investing, we must not hesitate to decide whether to stay or not with the worst expectations, and listen to the thunder in silent places.</p><p>As for those investors who failed to make money in the first half of the year, time and opportunities may not be much.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/475503\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a97a16afe8e75d415a74db18ceb0a4c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/475503","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2151217519","content_text":"美联储主席不止一次地告诉世界，通胀是暂时的。\n不过，经济数据正在不断押注另一边。\n当地时间7月13日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，6月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增长5.4%，环比上涨0.9%，均大幅超出市场预期的5%、0.5%，同时创下1991年11月以来最高记录。\n\n即便考虑到去年疫情导致的低基数，通胀数据的恶化依然肉眼可见，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI同比涨幅高达4.5%。但是，通过前几次的铺垫，资本市场的反应越来越平淡，昨晚美股三大指数只微跌0.3%左右，美债、黄金异动都不大。\n无论市场是否继续相信鲍威尔的论调，对美联储来说，通胀压力和货币宽松刺激经济的矛盾日益激烈。\n正如联储官员戴利所说，虽然现在谈论加息还为时过早，但开始谈论缩减购债是合适的。\n\n\n1\n喊了几个月的Taper，啥时候来？\n\n\n美联储很擅长做“预期调节”这件事，不定时地向市场释放信号，鹰派的、鸽派的，放风可以放足一年，给投资者充足的时间做预防和对冲。反复几次下来，和政策对赌的人少了一大半，美联储的拐弯就平滑了许多。\n从3月份美国CPI跨过2%的安全边界之后，押注美联储在年内将缩减购债规模（Taper）甚至加息的投资者越来越多。虽然鲍威尔的货币政策框架锚定的是经济和就业，这两个目标未完成前，短期通胀是可以被容忍的，但不排除持续过高的通胀改变FED的态度。\n不过，短期内马上改变美联储货币政策显然不太现实，毕竟事态已经这样了，需不需要立即采取行动就不再取决于通胀压力有多大，而是美联储如何判断。\n根据7月9日美联储发布的货币政策报告，美国经济正在强劲复苏，但是劳动力市场存在结构性问题，劳动力需求的激增超过了劳动力供应的复苏；供应链瓶颈有所缓解，但历史高位的订单积压和历史低位的客户库存表明供应链压力依然不小。\n无论美联储官员的表态如何，市场的预期不外乎以下4种。连续4个月的通胀数据，不断将市场的预期拐点向前移。如果接下来公布的PPI数据同样大超预期，生产端的压力继续向消费端传导，将会进一步加深市场的担忧，退出动作的预期也会继续提前。\n\n当前，比较受认可的观点是，美联储将在8月的杰克逊霍尔年度专题研讨会上抛出缩减购债信号。预期会先以暗示、放风为主，具体何时落地，联储官员和机构的预测集中在今年年底和明年年初。在此之前，7月底的FOMC会议或许会透露出一些关键信息。\n短期上或许还存在诸多不确定性，但远期上，所有人都确信，全球流动性拐点终将到来。\n在这个节骨眼上，国内央行却意外地再度降准，释放出约1万亿的流动性，但再看看目前的经济数据趋势，理由是很能说得通的。\n由于去年的疫情中各国存在较大的恢复差，中国的快速恢复，且庞大而完善的制造业供应能力，吃到一波外贸红利，经济快速增长正是得益于大量的海外出口订单。但如今，随着美欧发达国家疫情控制、疫苗接种率的提升，经济社会恢复正常，订单开始回流，对中国的外贸需求将出现明显的下降，近几个月的经济数据显示，全球制造业PMI景气走强的同时，中国新出口订单明显回落。\n\n在这个背景下，中国经济下行压力加大已成各方共识，货币重新偏向宽松，正是为了提前对冲这种影响。\n但过去10年，中美平均利差为133BP，去年9月中美利差为235BP，而现在只有155个BP，从这个角度看，宽松的空间已经大大缩减，一旦美国开始收水，货币政策的弹性空间就会变得狭窄很多。\n\n如今，中美货币政策的错配，又引发市场新的担忧，我们还有多大腾挪调配的空间？\n不过，昨日央行货币政策司司长孙国峰发表观点，他认为关于美联储货币政策转向的讨论对中国货币政策、金融市场的影响较小。\n这个底气从何而来？\n2\n十年货币独立性追求，成真了吗？\n我们不妨回顾一下过去20年发生的事情。\n2001加入世贸之后，中国和美国经济相互依存度加深，一切貌似都朝着美好的方向发展，中国GDP增速连年超过10%，成了名副其实的世界工厂，美国也得以继续玩金融，玩地产。\n但是，2008年，一切戛然而止。\n美国爆发了严重的金融危机，并且迅速席卷全球，中国也深受其害，急冲冲启动“四万亿”的救市计划。由此引发的，是中美双方合作关系的“裂痕”，其实双方都在反思，过去8年到底出了什么问题。\n美国认为中国加入世贸后，自己因为更肆无忌惮地移走自家的制造业，实体经济的空虚，导致虚拟经济，尤其是金融的过度膨胀，是危机的根源，所以奥巴马才喊出制造业回归的旗号。\n而中国，态度则更加微妙。美国过分依赖美元地位、债务扩张等方式发展经济，决定了美元的周期波动会比较剧烈，但美国能够利用全球去对冲美元的波动，其他国家则没有这个实力，尤其是深度跟美国绑定的国家，货币政策只能被动跟随，在美元扩张时日子过得不错，但是美元收缩时，常常伴随着剧烈的经济下行。金融危机前，中国享受了多年的世贸红利，并演变为引以为傲的“出口导向型经济”，经济危机来临，欧美需求快速下滑，外贸重挫，伴随而来的是大量出口制造业倒闭，失业人口迅速膨胀，正是这种体现。\n中国这样体型庞大、人口众多的国家，稳定比什么都重要。\n所以，在稳住经济形势之后，中国也开始了一系列的调整，其中最重要的一条，就是走自己的路，说得再直白一点，就是想办法从过度绑定美国的前车之鉴中抽身。\n至于具体的做法，一带一路算一个，基建+地产算一个，由出口依赖转向刺激内需也算一个，还有货币政策的调整。\n2009年，中国开始尝试跟周边一些国家做对外贸易上，直接使用人民结算，推动人民币的国际使用量迅速增加。2009年，人民币的外贸结算量只有几十亿元，2015年，首次突破10万亿元。\n2015年，“811汇改”，人民币从单一盯住美元，改为选择若干种主要货币，赋予相应的权重，组成一个货币篮子，同时，以市场供求为基础，参考一篮子货币计算人民币多边汇率指数的变化，维护人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基础稳定，形成有管理的浮动汇率制。\n简而言之，就是从“单锚”转向了“多锚”。\n在这个过程中，中国付出了不少代价，如“811汇改”后，人民币汇率快速贬值，加上外汇管制上的漏洞，无数企业利用这种漏洞，不断地套汇输出海外，中国损失了9000亿美元外汇储备。\n\n但总体上，收效还是很大的，起码，中国在货币政策的选择上，逐渐体现出了自主的独立性。这可能就是孙司长所言的底气。\n3\n中美货币的错配，带来什么？\n2015年下半年，美联储进入加息周期，新兴经济体几乎全军覆没，部分国家更是格外惨烈，巴西、南非和土耳其货币均贬至纪录低位，巴西 GDP 创史上最大降幅。\n由于“811”汇改抢占先机、主动防御，人民币兑美元汇率的贬值幅度在新兴市场中居于低位，避免了系统性风险的爆发。在货币政策上，中国也表现出了比以往更多的独立性。2008年之前，中美欧货币政策趋于同步；金融危机爆发后，中国央行的节奏脱离美欧的步伐，收放水都领先一步。\n如美联储从2015年12月到2018年12月，美联储共同加息9次，联邦基金利率加至2.25%-2.50%。而此时的中国，却在降息，2015年3月1日、5月11日、6月28日、8月26日，一年期贷款基准利率下调均下调0.25个百分点，由5.6%将至4.6%，一年期存款基准利率也多次下调0.25个百分点，至1.75%；其他各档次贷款及存款基准利率、个人住房公积金存贷款利率相应调整。\n2020年的新冠疫情，美联储再次大放水，但中美两国的经济周期和货币政策再次出现错配。\n\n两次的配错，并非刻意追求，更多的是中国出于自身的实际情况做出的决策，如2015年需要解决地方债务到期问题、房地产高库存问题，2020年则是通过快速的疫情防控，用出口红利代替了纯粹依靠货币刺激的老路。这次降准，也颇有2015年时的意思。\n不过，这种独立性并不等于完全不顾美联储，毕竟全球经济的火车头还是美国，恰恰是我们想在美联储和自身国情中取平衡。当然，中国接下来需要面对的是，如果美联储因为通胀压力大幅提前收紧流动性的节奏，人民币贬值压力和资本外流等问题上，该如何应对。\n下半年或许比我们预期要艰难许多，对外，面临出口缩减风险，货币方面又需要担心美联储货币拐点带来的压力，流动性相对宽松的窗口有限；对内，投资动力不足，寄与厚望的消费拉动的内循环经济成效还不够显著，一旦资金面收紧，很多中小微企业又会面临去年那样需求与资金面紧缺的局面。\n内外压力联合作用下，接下来央行对货币政策比较可能采取的操作可能不是放松流动性，或加入明显收紧行列，而更可能是总量控制，结构调整，定向引导，严控监管资金空转，真正把流动性引导至真正应该去的地方，比如中小微，民生经济，创新科技、绿色经济等方面。\n国家现在对提振国内企业活力、民众消费经济的目标很明确，动能也很强烈。由此，我们也可以想象得到，但凡对这个目标实现构成影响的阻碍，都会继续被压制和清理，比如炒房、反垄断、教育、医疗等等。\n但无论哪一种情况，对于资本市场面来说，可能都不会是一个很乐观的局面。\n4\n结语\n股价这个东西，长期看行业，中期看基本面，短期看流动性。\n去年3月到现在，我们经历了一波典型的从“经济向好，货币宽松”到“经济向好，货币收紧”的过程，大A也从普涨转变为分化抱团。\n下图第三象限所发生的事情--分化正在发生，如果接下来的货币真的向紧，那么第四象限--哀鸿遍野的资本市场也大概率会重演，只是程度有多大的问题。\n\n做投资，我们要不吝以最差的预期决定去留，于无声处听惊雷。\n至于那些上半年没能赚到钱的投资者，时间和机会可能并不多了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"UCmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"CNHmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"CYB":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144339062,"gmtCreate":1626266815256,"gmtModify":1703756653274,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144339062","repostId":"2151593458","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151593458","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626228999,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151593458?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-14 10:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. inflation continues to fever, and it's time to test the Fed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151593458","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国6月物价再度爆表，美联储的“通胀暂时论”还能否站得住脚，以及货币政策将如何作出应对，成为市场关注的焦点。北京时间周二晚间公布的数据显示，美国6月CPI及核心CPI环比、同比均高于预期及前值，多项数据创新高。今年以来，美国通胀节节走高，但美联储一直坚称物价上涨只是“暂时的”，随着疫情封锁进一步放松、供应赶上被压抑的需求，通胀将消退。当地时间周三和周四，美联储主席鲍威尔将接受国会议员的质询。","content":"<p>Prices in the United States exploded again in June. Whether the Federal Reserve's \"temporary inflation theory\" can still be tenable and how monetary policy will respond has become the focus of market attention.</p><p>Data released on Tuesday evening, Beijing time, showed that the U.S. CPI and core CPI in June were both higher than expected and previous values month-on-month and year-on-year, and many data hit new highs. Among them, CPI rose by 5.4% year-on-year, the highest increase since August 2008, much higher than the 5% increase in May and the 4.9% increase previously predicted by economists.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1c1b19fafe4fccf8df811ab9531e0be\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p>Industries directly affected by the pandemic saw the biggest price increases, with travel-related expenses such as air tickets soaring, and semiconductor shortages also sending used car prices soaring. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, used car prices rose 10.5% month-on-month in June, contributing one-third of last month's CPI increase.</p><p>After the data was released, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate hike rose sharply, U.S. bond yields jumped intraday, and the yield curve flattened. Under the threat of inflation, the dollar strengthened further, approaching a three-month high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e83a31c11d1be5a229daf643f2d3ae\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p><h2>Challenges for the Fed</h2>U.S. inflation has been rising steadily this year, but the Federal Reserve has insisted that price increases are only \"temporary\" and will subside as epidemic lockdowns are further eased and supply catches up with pent-up demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce1f249aafa91beb78c3bda811d915d\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed predicted that its favored gauge of core inflation would rise 3% this year and fall back to 2.1% in 2022.</p><p>In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals that surprised the market last month, suggesting that there will be two rate hike in 2023. The minutes of the meeting showed that the Fed has begun to discuss the Taper matter within, but no consensus can be reached, and the discussion will continue in the future.</p><p>But Tuesday's unexpectedly high inflation data could put pressure on the Fed to consider reducing asset purchases at a faster pace than previously expected, slowing monetary stimulus.</p><p>St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard said on Tuesday that as the U.S. economy grows at a rate of 7% and the epidemic is getting better and better under control, it is now time to lift the Fed's stimulus measures. Bullard has always been known as a \"dove\", and his hawkish remarks have aroused great concern in the market.</p><p>But the New York Fed president<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>On Monday, the U.S. economy has not yet reached the conditions for the Federal Reserve to reduce the scale of asset purchases. San Francisco Fed President Daly also warned on Friday that premature withdrawal from the stimulus plan would pose great risks as the Delta variant strain continues to spread.</p><p>On Wednesday and Thursday local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be questioned by members of Congress. Investors will pay close attention to whether Powell will signal that he will start discussing tapering asset purchases at the July Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Dutch International</a>James Knightley, chief international economist at the Group (ING), said that there seems to be no reason for the Fed to continue its quantitative easing plan of buying $120 billion in assets per month, and we will look for hints about impending tapering from Powell's testimony and the August Jackson Hole meeting.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>Analysts wrote in a note on Tuesday that if the Fed sticks to its average inflation target, putting the rate hike ahead of market expectations, it could mean increased interest rate volatility in the future.</p><p>Wells Fargo analysts pointed out that the Fed will face more challenges in communication in the future. On the one hand, it hopes to continue to be patient; on the other hand, the market does not seem to \"buy\" the Fed's new strategy to deal with inflation. These contradictions should aggravate the future volatility of macro markets.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. inflation continues to fever, and it's time to test the Fed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. inflation continues to fever, and it's time to test the Fed\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-14 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Prices in the United States exploded again in June. Whether the Federal Reserve's \"temporary inflation theory\" can still be tenable and how monetary policy will respond has become the focus of market attention.</p><p>Data released on Tuesday evening, Beijing time, showed that the U.S. CPI and core CPI in June were both higher than expected and previous values month-on-month and year-on-year, and many data hit new highs. Among them, CPI rose by 5.4% year-on-year, the highest increase since August 2008, much higher than the 5% increase in May and the 4.9% increase previously predicted by economists.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1c1b19fafe4fccf8df811ab9531e0be\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p>Industries directly affected by the pandemic saw the biggest price increases, with travel-related expenses such as air tickets soaring, and semiconductor shortages also sending used car prices soaring. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, used car prices rose 10.5% month-on-month in June, contributing one-third of last month's CPI increase.</p><p>After the data was released, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate hike rose sharply, U.S. bond yields jumped intraday, and the yield curve flattened. Under the threat of inflation, the dollar strengthened further, approaching a three-month high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e83a31c11d1be5a229daf643f2d3ae\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p><h2>Challenges for the Fed</h2>U.S. inflation has been rising steadily this year, but the Federal Reserve has insisted that price increases are only \"temporary\" and will subside as epidemic lockdowns are further eased and supply catches up with pent-up demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce1f249aafa91beb78c3bda811d915d\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed predicted that its favored gauge of core inflation would rise 3% this year and fall back to 2.1% in 2022.</p><p>In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals that surprised the market last month, suggesting that there will be two rate hike in 2023. The minutes of the meeting showed that the Fed has begun to discuss the Taper matter within, but no consensus can be reached, and the discussion will continue in the future.</p><p>But Tuesday's unexpectedly high inflation data could put pressure on the Fed to consider reducing asset purchases at a faster pace than previously expected, slowing monetary stimulus.</p><p>St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard said on Tuesday that as the U.S. economy grows at a rate of 7% and the epidemic is getting better and better under control, it is now time to lift the Fed's stimulus measures. Bullard has always been known as a \"dove\", and his hawkish remarks have aroused great concern in the market.</p><p>But the New York Fed president<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>On Monday, the U.S. economy has not yet reached the conditions for the Federal Reserve to reduce the scale of asset purchases. San Francisco Fed President Daly also warned on Friday that premature withdrawal from the stimulus plan would pose great risks as the Delta variant strain continues to spread.</p><p>On Wednesday and Thursday local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be questioned by members of Congress. Investors will pay close attention to whether Powell will signal that he will start discussing tapering asset purchases at the July Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Dutch International</a>James Knightley, chief international economist at the Group (ING), said that there seems to be no reason for the Fed to continue its quantitative easing plan of buying $120 billion in assets per month, and we will look for hints about impending tapering from Powell's testimony and the August Jackson Hole meeting.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>Analysts wrote in a note on Tuesday that if the Fed sticks to its average inflation target, putting the rate hike ahead of market expectations, it could mean increased interest rate volatility in the future.</p><p>Wells Fargo analysts pointed out that the Fed will face more challenges in communication in the future. On the one hand, it hopes to continue to be patient; on the other hand, the market does not seem to \"buy\" the Fed's new strategy to deal with inflation. These contradictions should aggravate the future volatility of macro markets.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635336\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd1549a90968778a7afdc56cd660b1b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635336","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151593458","content_text":"美国6月物价再度爆表，美联储的“通胀暂时论”还能否站得住脚，以及货币政策将如何作出应对，成为市场关注的焦点。\n北京时间周二晚间公布的数据显示，美国6月CPI及核心CPI环比、同比均高于预期及前值，多项数据创新高。其中CPI同比上涨5.4%，创下2008年8月以来的最高涨幅，远高于5月份的5%和经济学家此前预测的4.9%的涨幅。\n\n（图片来源：Zerohedge）\n受疫情直接影响的行业的价格涨幅最大，机票等差旅相关费用飙升，半导体短缺也导致二手车价格飙升。美国劳工统计局的数据显示，6月二手车价格环比上涨了10.5%，贡献了上个月CPI上涨的三分之一涨幅。\n数据公布后，市场对美联储加息预期陡升，美债收益率盘中跃升，收益率曲线趋平。通胀威胁下，美元进一步走强，逼近三个月来高位。\n\n（图片来源：Zerohedge）\n美联储面临的挑战\n今年以来，美国通胀节节走高，但美联储一直坚称物价上涨只是“暂时的”，随着疫情封锁进一步放松、供应赶上被压抑的需求，通胀将消退。\n\n在6月的FOMC会议上，美联储预测，其青睐的核心通胀指标今年将上升3%，2022年将回落至2.1%。\n货币政策方面，美联储上月释放出令市场意外的鹰派信号，暗示2023年会有两次加息。会议纪要显示，美联储内部已经开始讨论Taper事宜，不过无法达成共识，未来将继续讨论。\n但周二意外高企的通胀数据可能会给美联储带来压力，迫使其考虑以比此前预期更快的速度减少资产购买，从而放缓货币刺激。\n美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德周二表示，随着美国经济以7%的速度增长，以及疫情得到越来越好的控制，现在是取消美联储的刺激措施了。布拉德一直以来以“鸽派”著称，他的鹰派言论引发了市场高度关注。\n但纽约联储行长威廉姆斯周一称，美国经济尚未达到美联储减少资产购买规模的条件。旧金山联储总裁戴利也在上周五警告，由于Delta变种毒株持续蔓延，过早退出刺激计划将造成极大的风险。\n当地时间周三和周四，美联储主席鲍威尔将接受国会议员的质询。投资者将密切关注鲍威尔会否释放在7月美联储会议上开始讨论缩减资产购买规模的信号。\n荷兰国际集团(ING)首席国际经济学家James Knightley表示，美联储似乎没有理由继续每月购买1200亿美元资产的量化宽松计划，我们将从鲍威尔的证词以及8月杰克逊霍尔会议上寻找有关即将缩减规模的暗示。\n富国银行分析们在周二的一份报告中写道，如果美联储坚守平均通胀目标，使得加息的时点超过市场预期，那么这可能意味着未来利率波动将加剧。\n富国分析师们指出，未来美联储在沟通方面将面临更多挑战，一方面它希望能够继续保持耐心，另一方面市场对美联储对待通胀的新策略似乎并不“买账”，这些矛盾应该会加剧宏观市场未来的波动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142725901,"gmtCreate":1626179065903,"gmtModify":1703754875255,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570854159723648","idStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142725901","repostId":"1170101093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170101093","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626179528,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170101093?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 20:32","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market: U.S. stock Q2 earnings season opens! U.S. CPI data hits","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170101093","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月13日（周二），高盛、摩根大通今日盘前公布财报，拉开美股第二季度财报期帷幕，美国公布6月CPI数据。\n美国6月季调后CPI月率0.9%，前值0.60%，预期0.50%，创2008年6月以来新高；美","content":"<p>On July 13 (Tuesday), Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase announced their financial reports before the market today, kicking off the second-quarter financial report period of U.S. stocks. The United States announced June CPI data.</p><p>The seasonally adjusted monthly CPI rate in the United States in June was 0.9%, the previous value was 0.60%, and the expected 0.50% was 0.50%, a new high since June 2008; The seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in the United States at the end of June was 5.4%, the previous value was 5.00%, and the expected 4.90% were expected, continuing to hit a new high since August 2008. The seasonally adjusted core CPI in the United States recorded an annual rate of 4.5% at the end of June, higher than expected and the highest level since 1991.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4a0b973545a04268cc7c45f092abd4b\" tg-width=\"1243\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Jinshi Data</span></p><p>U.S. stock index futures fell after the release of U.S. CPI data. Dow futures fell 0.13%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.21%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3689757f997fa9953a85267baa42bd0a\" tg-width=\"355\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Agency comments on U.S. CPI data in June: U.S. Department of Labor data showed that the seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.9% on a monthly basis in June, and the seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate at the end of June was 5.4%, of which used cars accounted for one-third of the CPI increase. The CPI data rose more than expected as higher commodity and labor costs related to economic restarts continued to fuel inflationary pressures.</p><p><b>Premarket earnings</b></p><p>Pepsi extended its premarket gains to 1.46%, after the previously announced<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1129606632\" target=\"_blank\">Q2 Results Beat Market Estimates and Raises FY21 Guidance</a>。 The financial report shows that PepsiCo's Q2 revenue was US $19.22 billion, market expectations were US $17.959 billion, and US $15.945 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was US $2.358 billion, market expectations were US $2.112 billion, and US $1.646 billion in the same period last year; Earnings per share were US $1.7, market expectations were US $1.52, and US $1.18 in the same period last year; Organic revenue is expected to grow 6% in fiscal 2021.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase fell 0.61% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1137544001\" target=\"_blank\">Q2 revenue fell 7% year-on-year to US $31.4 billion, miss the market expectation</a>。 The financial report shows: JPMorgan Chase's adjusted revenue in the second quarter was US $31.4 billion, estimated at US $30.06 billion, and US $33.817 billion in the same period last year; Net profit in the second quarter was US $11.496 billion, compared with market expectations of US $9.326 billion, and US $4.265 billion in the same period last year; Earnings per share in the second quarter were US $3.78, compared with market expectations of US $3.16 and US $1.38 in the same period last year.</p><p>Goldman Sachs turned higher before the market and is now up about 0.5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1174880315\" target=\"_blank\">Q2 revenue and net income both beat market expectations</a>。 The financial report shows that Goldman Sachs' Q2 revenue was US $15.39 billion, market expectations were US $121.74, and US $13.295 billion in the same period last year; Net profit of US $5.347 billion; Earnings per share were US $15.02, compared with market expectations of US $10.07, and US $6.26 in the same period last year.</p><p><b>Individual stock quotes</b></p><p>Sohu and Sogou rose 12.3% and 2.6% respectively before the market opened. The State Administration for Market Regulation unconditionally approved Tencent's acquisition of Sogou's equity;</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks rose before the market, RLX Technology, Bilibili, New Oriental rose more than 3%, Alibaba, Tencent Music rose more than 2%, Pinduoduo, JD.com, Baidu, Didi, iQiyi, Ctrip, Keike, etc. rose more than 1%; The prices of Nio, XPeng Automobile, and Li Auto exceeded and narrowed to less than 1%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the \"Catalogue of New Energy Vehicle Models Exempted from Vehicle Purchase Tax\" (the 44th batch), including Ideal ONE, XPeng P5, etc.;</p><p>Virgin Galactic's pre-market decline narrowed to 1.3%, and closed down 17.3% yesterday. The company announced yesterday that it would raise US $500 million by placing shares;</p><p>Daqo New Energy rose nearly 4% before the market, and its subsidiary Xinjiang Daqo will be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board;</p><p>Modeling and simulation software company Simulations Plus fell 14.3% before the market. The company's quarterly revenue fell 10% year-on-year, and no quarterly guidance was given;</p><p>Exela Technologies rose 7.2% before the market and closed up 19.2% yesterday after the company launched a new document processing system; According to other statistics, the recent short-selling ratio of the stock has increased significantly.</p><p><b>Commodities</b></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil prices rose slightly, with U.S. stocks rising 0.26% to $74.34; Brent oil rose 0.36% to $75.5. The move comes after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that global energy markets would \"tighten significantly\" if OPEC + fails to resolve the current dispute.</p><p>The agency said the OPEC + stalemate would exacerbate the \"increasingly severe supply deficit\" while \"high oil prices could exacerbate inflation and hurt economic recovery.\"</p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Spot gold rose 0.46% during the day to $1,813.7 an ounce.</p><p>International gold prices rose slightly, but the US Dollar Index maintained a rebound pattern, limiting the increase in gold prices. Investors are eyeing upcoming U.S. inflation data, which may provide more information on the cadence chart of the Fed's tightening policy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market: U.S. stock Q2 earnings season opens! U.S. CPI data hits</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market: U.S. stock Q2 earnings season opens! U.S. CPI data hits\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-13 20:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 13 (Tuesday), Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase announced their financial reports before the market today, kicking off the second-quarter financial report period of U.S. stocks. The United States announced June CPI data.</p><p>The seasonally adjusted monthly CPI rate in the United States in June was 0.9%, the previous value was 0.60%, and the expected 0.50% was 0.50%, a new high since June 2008; The seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in the United States at the end of June was 5.4%, the previous value was 5.00%, and the expected 4.90% were expected, continuing to hit a new high since August 2008. The seasonally adjusted core CPI in the United States recorded an annual rate of 4.5% at the end of June, higher than expected and the highest level since 1991.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4a0b973545a04268cc7c45f092abd4b\" tg-width=\"1243\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Jinshi Data</span></p><p>U.S. stock index futures fell after the release of U.S. CPI data. Dow futures fell 0.13%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.21%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.18%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3689757f997fa9953a85267baa42bd0a\" tg-width=\"355\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Agency comments on U.S. CPI data in June: U.S. Department of Labor data showed that the seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.9% on a monthly basis in June, and the seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate at the end of June was 5.4%, of which used cars accounted for one-third of the CPI increase. The CPI data rose more than expected as higher commodity and labor costs related to economic restarts continued to fuel inflationary pressures.</p><p><b>Premarket earnings</b></p><p>Pepsi extended its premarket gains to 1.46%, after the previously announced<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1129606632\" target=\"_blank\">Q2 Results Beat Market Estimates and Raises FY21 Guidance</a>。 The financial report shows that PepsiCo's Q2 revenue was US $19.22 billion, market expectations were US $17.959 billion, and US $15.945 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was US $2.358 billion, market expectations were US $2.112 billion, and US $1.646 billion in the same period last year; Earnings per share were US $1.7, market expectations were US $1.52, and US $1.18 in the same period last year; Organic revenue is expected to grow 6% in fiscal 2021.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase fell 0.61% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1137544001\" target=\"_blank\">Q2 revenue fell 7% year-on-year to US $31.4 billion, miss the market expectation</a>。 The financial report shows: JPMorgan Chase's adjusted revenue in the second quarter was US $31.4 billion, estimated at US $30.06 billion, and US $33.817 billion in the same period last year; Net profit in the second quarter was US $11.496 billion, compared with market expectations of US $9.326 billion, and US $4.265 billion in the same period last year; Earnings per share in the second quarter were US $3.78, compared with market expectations of US $3.16 and US $1.38 in the same period last year.</p><p>Goldman Sachs turned higher before the market and is now up about 0.5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1174880315\" target=\"_blank\">Q2 revenue and net income both beat market expectations</a>。 The financial report shows that Goldman Sachs' Q2 revenue was US $15.39 billion, market expectations were US $121.74, and US $13.295 billion in the same period last year; Net profit of US $5.347 billion; Earnings per share were US $15.02, compared with market expectations of US $10.07, and US $6.26 in the same period last year.</p><p><b>Individual stock quotes</b></p><p>Sohu and Sogou rose 12.3% and 2.6% respectively before the market opened. The State Administration for Market Regulation unconditionally approved Tencent's acquisition of Sogou's equity;</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks rose before the market, RLX Technology, Bilibili, New Oriental rose more than 3%, Alibaba, Tencent Music rose more than 2%, Pinduoduo, JD.com, Baidu, Didi, iQiyi, Ctrip, Keike, etc. rose more than 1%; The prices of Nio, XPeng Automobile, and Li Auto exceeded and narrowed to less than 1%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the \"Catalogue of New Energy Vehicle Models Exempted from Vehicle Purchase Tax\" (the 44th batch), including Ideal ONE, XPeng P5, etc.;</p><p>Virgin Galactic's pre-market decline narrowed to 1.3%, and closed down 17.3% yesterday. The company announced yesterday that it would raise US $500 million by placing shares;</p><p>Daqo New Energy rose nearly 4% before the market, and its subsidiary Xinjiang Daqo will be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board;</p><p>Modeling and simulation software company Simulations Plus fell 14.3% before the market. The company's quarterly revenue fell 10% year-on-year, and no quarterly guidance was given;</p><p>Exela Technologies rose 7.2% before the market and closed up 19.2% yesterday after the company launched a new document processing system; According to other statistics, the recent short-selling ratio of the stock has increased significantly.</p><p><b>Commodities</b></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil prices rose slightly, with U.S. stocks rising 0.26% to $74.34; Brent oil rose 0.36% to $75.5. The move comes after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that global energy markets would \"tighten significantly\" if OPEC + fails to resolve the current dispute.</p><p>The agency said the OPEC + stalemate would exacerbate the \"increasingly severe supply deficit\" while \"high oil prices could exacerbate inflation and hurt economic recovery.\"</p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Spot gold rose 0.46% during the day to $1,813.7 an ounce.</p><p>International gold prices rose slightly, but the US Dollar Index maintained a rebound pattern, limiting the increase in gold prices. Investors are eyeing upcoming U.S. inflation data, which may provide more information on the cadence chart of the Fed's tightening policy.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{"SOHU":"搜狐",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPCE":"维珍银河","SOGO":"搜狗",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170101093","content_text":"7月13日（周二），高盛、摩根大通今日盘前公布财报，拉开美股第二季度财报期帷幕，美国公布6月CPI数据。\n美国6月季调后CPI月率0.9%，前值0.60%，预期0.50%，创2008年6月以来新高；美国6月末季调CPI年率5.4%，前值5.00%，预期4.90%，续创2008年8月以来新高。美国6月末季调核心CPI年率录得4.5%，高于预期并创1991年来的最高水平。\n来源：金十数据\n美国CPI数据公布后，美股股指期货下挫。道指期货跌0.13%，标普500指数期货跌0.21%，纳指期货跌0.18%。\n\n机构评美国6月CPI数据：美国劳工部数据显示，6月季调后CPI月率上涨0.9%，6月末季调CPI年率录得5.4%，其中二手车占CPI增幅的三分之一。CPI数据涨幅超过预期，因与经济重启相关的大宗商品和劳动力成本上涨继续加剧通胀压力。\n盘前财报\n百事可乐盘前涨幅扩大至1.46%，此前公布的第二季度业绩好于市场预期，并上调2021财年指引。财报显示，百事可乐Q2营收192.2亿美元，市场预期179.59亿美元，去年同期159.45亿美元；净利润23.58亿美元，市场预期21.12亿美元，去年同期16.46亿美元；每股盈利1.7美元，市场预期1.52美元，去年同期1.18美元；预计2021财年有机营收将增长6%。\n摩根大通盘前跌0.61%，Q2营收同比下滑7%至314亿美元，不及市场预期。财报显示：摩根大通二季度经调整后营收314亿美元，预估300.6亿美元，去年同期338.17亿美元；第二季度净利润114.96亿美元，市场预期93.26亿美元，去年同期42.65亿美元；第二季度每股盈利3.78美元，市场预期3.16美元，去年同期1.38美元。\n高盛盘前转涨，现涨约0.5%，第二季度营收和净利润均好于市场预期。财报显示，高盛Q2营收153.9亿美元，市场预期121.74美元，去年同期132.95亿美元；净利润53.47亿美元；每股盈利15.02美元，市场预期10.07美元，去年同期6.26美元。\n个股行情\n搜狐、搜狗盘前分别涨12.3%及2.6%，市场监管总局无条件批准腾讯收购搜狗公司股权；\n热门中概股盘前上涨，RLX科技、哔哩哔哩、新东方涨超3%，阿里巴巴、腾讯音乐涨超2%，拼多多、京东、百度、滴滴、爱奇艺、携程网、贝壳等涨超1%；蔚来、小鹏汽车、理想汽车涨超缩窄至1%以内，工信部发布《免征车辆购置税的新能源汽车车型目录》（第四十四批），理想ONE、小鹏P5等在列；\n维珍银河盘前跌幅缩窄至1.3%，昨日收跌17.3%，公司昨日宣布将配售股份筹资5亿美元；\n大全新能源盘前涨近4%，子公司新疆大全将登陆科创板；\n建模和模拟软件公司Simulations Plus盘前跌14.3%，公司季度营收同比下滑10%，没有给出季度指引；\nExela Technologies盘前涨7.2%，昨日收涨19.2%，此前公司推出新的文档处理系统；另据统计，该股最近的做空比例明显提升。\n大宗商品\n原油\n原油价格小幅上涨，美股涨0.26%，报74.34美元；布油涨0.36%，报75.5美元。此前国际能源署(IEA)警告称，如果欧佩克+未能解决目前的争端，全球能源市场将“大幅收紧”。\n该机构表示，欧佩克+的僵局将加剧“日趋严峻的供应赤字”，而“高油价可能加剧通胀，损害经济复苏。”\n黄金\n现货黄金日内涨0.46%，报1813.7美元/盎司。\n国际金价小幅走高，但美元指数维持反弹格局，限制了金价升幅。投资者关注即将公布的美国通胀数据，可能会为美联储收紧政策的节奏表提供更多信息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"GOLDmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"SOGO":0.9,"SPCE":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SOHU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}