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- LEE JIA SHENGLEE JIA SHENG
  ·2022-11-08
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  Where has the U.S. stock semiconductor cycle gone?
  2022Q3大概率是本轮半导体周期的库存高点
  Where has the U.S. stock semiconductor cycle gone?
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The semiconductor industry has typical cyclical attributes. Each cycle lasts about 3 to 4 years. Inventory levels are the core variable to judge the inflection point of the industry's stock price. In previous cycles, corporate EPS, valuation adjustment range, etc. can also provide a good benchmark reference. The global semiconductor industry is currently in a cyclical downward channel. We judge that the industry's inventory level has most likely peaked in the third quarter and started to fall. The stock price is also expected to bottom out and rebound following the inventory level. The SOX index (Philadelphia Semiconductor) has fallen by 44% since its high point at the beginning of the year, and the adjustment range is close to the historical average level (45%). The SOX index and the dynamic valuations of major representative companies are also close to the bottom level of the 2018/19 downward cycle. The bottom characteristics of the market are obvious. Considering that this downward cycle is accompanied by oversupply and shrinking demand, although we firmly believe in the judgment that the stock price of the U.S. semiconductor sector has bottomed out and rebounded, the sector performance expectations may still face continued disturbances on the demand side in the short term, and the stock price recovery slope is also likely to be weaker than Historically comparable cycles such as 2018/19. Comply with the \"first-in, first-out\" cycle rule, and combine the certainty of individual stock performance and the rationality of valuation.</p><p><b>▍ Semiconductor: It has typical cyclical attributes, and inventory level is the core influencing variable of stock price.</b></p><p>For a long time in the past, the global semiconductor industry has basically maintained an average annual compound growth rate slightly higher than GDP, reflecting the strong correlation between the semiconductor industry and the macro economy, as well as the continuous increase in the \"silicon content\" of the whole society. From a short-to medium-term perspective, the inherent \"production capacity-inventory\" attribute of the semiconductor industry will bring about a phased mismatch between industry supply and demand, resulting in the industry having typical cycle attributes, and each complete cycle lasts about 3 to 4 years. Stock prices are more of a reaction to expectations than facts. Retrospective historical data shows that year-on-year changes in SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) stock prices have a significant negative correlation with year-on-year changes in industry inventory levels (changes in absolute inventory days). Simply put, The high point of inventory levels generally corresponds to the low point of SOX index stock prices, which is also consistent with the main price formation mechanism of the semiconductor industry. Our report is dedicated to judging the running position of the global semiconductor cycle. The scope of discussion mainly focuses on the two categories of logic chips and memory chips, and is dedicated to answering: the high point of the inventory level of the semiconductor industry in this cycle, and the market's expectations for the downward cycle. Degree, similarities and differences between this semiconductor cycle compared with history, etc.</p><p><b>▍ Inventory level: Q3 is likely to be the high point of this cycle.</b></p><p>According to SIA data, in 2022Q2, the number of global semiconductor inventory days is about 108 days. Combined with the third quarterly report data of relevant manufacturers, we judge that the industry inventory level is still rising further in the third quarter. combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>According to the latest statements from companies such as MediaTek, Intel, etc., we judge that Q3 is most likely to be the high inventory point of this round of semiconductor cycle. The sector is expected to return to normal inventory levels around 2023Q2 after two quarters of inventory destocking in 2022Q4 and 2023Q1. The current weakness of consumer electronics (smartphones, PCs) has been fully recognized by the market, but the market is also worried about the future<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The weakening demand for mobile phones and servers has pushed up global semiconductor inventory levels.</p><p>According to our analysis:</p><p>1) Sales data at the initial stage of launch show that the proportion of iPhone 14Pro/Pro max in iPhone 14 series sales is expected to increase from about 50% of previous generations to 60% to 65%. The ideal product mix, the purchasing power of high-end consumer groups, and the favorable competitive landscape of the high-end mobile phone market are expected to continue to support the short-term performance of Apple mobile phones;</p><p>2) Looking forward to 2023, the North American cloud computing market demand is still strong, and next year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>, the replacement demand brought by AMD's new generation server CPU chips is expected to drive the capital expenditure of North American cloud vendors to continue to maintain a growth of about 10%, thereby supporting the global server market demand.</p><p><b>▍ Market adjustment: The stock price decline since the high point, the valuation contraction, and the expected adjustment of EPS are closer to the bottom of the historical downward cycle.</b></p><p>The stock price at the bottom of previous cycles of the semiconductor industry, the adjustment range of EPS, and the valuation level at the bottom stage of the market are important reference benchmarks for the market to be at the bottom. Since the high point at the beginning of the year, the SOX index has fallen by 44%, which is significantly higher than the recent downward cycles, and only better than the dot-com bubble period (-84%) and the 2008 financial crisis period (-69%); At the valuation level, the current SOX PE (NTM) has fallen to around 14X, which is approaching the bottom level of the 2018/2019 cycle. At the same time, from the perspective of representative companies in each link, TSMC (wafer manufacturing), Qualcomm (IC design)) The PE (NTM) is 10 and 11X respectively, while the lows of the 2018/19 cycle are 12 and 15X respectively. At the same time, the current PB of memory chip manufacturers is 1.2 X, which is also close to the lows of the 2018/19 cycle (1.0 X); At the EPS level, since Q2 this year, the unanimous performance expectations of major U.S. semiconductor companies have begun to enter a downward adjustment channel. Micron in the field of memory chips has undergone the most drastic adjustment. At the same time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Intel,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>Other companies have also made significant downward adjustments, and basically all of them have made significant adjustments after the third quarterly report.</p><p><b>▍ This cycle: oversupply and shrinking demand coexist, and the slope of stock price recovery is likely to be weaker than history.</b></p><p>In the latest comparable 2018/19 cycle, the downward trend of the sector was more due to the periodic imbalance of supply and demand structure caused by oversupply. There is also an oversupply situation in this downward cycle. The capital expenditure and capacity expansion situation in the past two years are similar to those in 2017/18, but the capital expenditure density is higher. The most obvious feature of this cycle is that at the same time, oversupply is accompanied by a rapid decline in demand. Taking PC as an example, it is expected that global PC sales will decline by nearly 20% this year, and it is expected that it will still decline by 5% to 10% next year. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening cycle has also brought global macroeconomic and demand uncertainty to continue to rise.. We judge that the current round of U.S. stock semiconductor cycle inventory has basically peaked, but considering the continued shrinkage of the demand side in this downward cycle, the U.S. stock semiconductor sector may still face more disturbances from the demand side during the stock price recovery stage, and the stock price recovery slope The probability is weaker than historically comparable cycles such as 2018/19.</p><p><b>▍ Risk Factors:</b></p><p>The risk of global economic unexpected recession; The slow decline in inflation in Europe and the United States leads to the risk of unexpected tightening of monetary policy; Global geopolitical conflicts lead to difficulties and risks in cross-border flow of technology and talents; The slow reduction of capital expenditure of some enterprises leads to the risk of slow supply clearing; The downside risk of consumer electronics and data center hardware demand exceeding expectations; Intensified market competition, risk of loss of core technical personnel in enterprises, etc.</p><p><b>▍ Investment strategy:</b></p><p>The semiconductor industry has typical cyclical attributes, and the trend change of industry inventory level is the core variable that determines the stock price trend. We judge that 2022Q3 is most likely to be the inventory high point of this round of semiconductor cycle. At the same time, combined with the industry index, the cumulative stock price decline of individual stocks since the high point, and valuation. Value contraction, EPS consensus expected adjustment range, etc., the bottom characteristics of the current sector are more obvious. Considering that this global semiconductor downturn is also accompanied by a shrinking demand side, although the stock price is bottoming out and rebounding, we expect that the recovery slope of the sector's stock price is likely to be weaker than that of historical comparable cycles such as 2018/19.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zxzqyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where has the U.S. stock semiconductor cycle gone?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere has the U.S. stock semiconductor cycle gone?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中信证券研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-08 08:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>2022Q3 is most likely to be the inventory high point of this round of semiconductor cycle from a short-to medium-term perspective. The semiconductor industry has typical cyclical attributes. Each cycle lasts about 3 to 4 years. Inventory levels are the core variable to judge the inflection point of the industry's stock price. In previous cycles, corporate EPS, valuation adjustment range, etc. can also provide a good benchmark reference. The global semiconductor industry is currently in a cyclical downward channel. We judge that the industry's inventory level has most likely peaked in the third quarter and started to fall. The stock price is also expected to bottom out and rebound following the inventory level. The SOX index (Philadelphia Semiconductor) has fallen by 44% since its high point at the beginning of the year, and the adjustment range is close to the historical average level (45%). The SOX index and the dynamic valuations of major representative companies are also close to the bottom level of the 2018/19 downward cycle. The bottom characteristics of the market are obvious. Considering that this downward cycle is accompanied by oversupply and shrinking demand, although we firmly believe in the judgment that the stock price of the U.S. semiconductor sector has bottomed out and rebounded, the sector performance expectations may still face continued disturbances on the demand side in the short term, and the stock price recovery slope is also likely to be weaker than Historically comparable cycles such as 2018/19. Comply with the \"first-in, first-out\" cycle rule, and combine the certainty of individual stock performance and the rationality of valuation.</p><p><b>▍ Semiconductor: It has typical cyclical attributes, and inventory level is the core influencing variable of stock price.</b></p><p>For a long time in the past, the global semiconductor industry has basically maintained an average annual compound growth rate slightly higher than GDP, reflecting the strong correlation between the semiconductor industry and the macro economy, as well as the continuous increase in the \"silicon content\" of the whole society. From a short-to medium-term perspective, the inherent \"production capacity-inventory\" attribute of the semiconductor industry will bring about a phased mismatch between industry supply and demand, resulting in the industry having typical cycle attributes, and each complete cycle lasts about 3 to 4 years. Stock prices are more of a reaction to expectations than facts. Retrospective historical data shows that year-on-year changes in SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) stock prices have a significant negative correlation with year-on-year changes in industry inventory levels (changes in absolute inventory days). Simply put, The high point of inventory levels generally corresponds to the low point of SOX index stock prices, which is also consistent with the main price formation mechanism of the semiconductor industry. Our report is dedicated to judging the running position of the global semiconductor cycle. The scope of discussion mainly focuses on the two categories of logic chips and memory chips, and is dedicated to answering: the high point of the inventory level of the semiconductor industry in this cycle, and the market's expectations for the downward cycle. Degree, similarities and differences between this semiconductor cycle compared with history, etc.</p><p><b>▍ Inventory level: Q3 is likely to be the high point of this cycle.</b></p><p>According to SIA data, in 2022Q2, the number of global semiconductor inventory days is about 108 days. Combined with the third quarterly report data of relevant manufacturers, we judge that the industry inventory level is still rising further in the third quarter. combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>According to the latest statements from companies such as MediaTek, Intel, etc., we judge that Q3 is most likely to be the high inventory point of this round of semiconductor cycle. The sector is expected to return to normal inventory levels around 2023Q2 after two quarters of inventory destocking in 2022Q4 and 2023Q1. The current weakness of consumer electronics (smartphones, PCs) has been fully recognized by the market, but the market is also worried about the future<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The weakening demand for mobile phones and servers has pushed up global semiconductor inventory levels.</p><p>According to our analysis:</p><p>1) Sales data at the initial stage of launch show that the proportion of iPhone 14Pro/Pro max in iPhone 14 series sales is expected to increase from about 50% of previous generations to 60% to 65%. The ideal product mix, the purchasing power of high-end consumer groups, and the favorable competitive landscape of the high-end mobile phone market are expected to continue to support the short-term performance of Apple mobile phones;</p><p>2) Looking forward to 2023, the North American cloud computing market demand is still strong, and next year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>, the replacement demand brought by AMD's new generation server CPU chips is expected to drive the capital expenditure of North American cloud vendors to continue to maintain a growth of about 10%, thereby supporting the global server market demand.</p><p><b>▍ Market adjustment: The stock price decline since the high point, the valuation contraction, and the expected adjustment of EPS are closer to the bottom of the historical downward cycle.</b></p><p>The stock price at the bottom of previous cycles of the semiconductor industry, the adjustment range of EPS, and the valuation level at the bottom stage of the market are important reference benchmarks for the market to be at the bottom. Since the high point at the beginning of the year, the SOX index has fallen by 44%, which is significantly higher than the recent downward cycles, and only better than the dot-com bubble period (-84%) and the 2008 financial crisis period (-69%); At the valuation level, the current SOX PE (NTM) has fallen to around 14X, which is approaching the bottom level of the 2018/2019 cycle. At the same time, from the perspective of representative companies in each link, TSMC (wafer manufacturing), Qualcomm (IC design)) The PE (NTM) is 10 and 11X respectively, while the lows of the 2018/19 cycle are 12 and 15X respectively. At the same time, the current PB of memory chip manufacturers is 1.2 X, which is also close to the lows of the 2018/19 cycle (1.0 X); At the EPS level, since Q2 this year, the unanimous performance expectations of major U.S. semiconductor companies have begun to enter a downward adjustment channel. Micron in the field of memory chips has undergone the most drastic adjustment. At the same time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Intel,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>Other companies have also made significant downward adjustments, and basically all of them have made significant adjustments after the third quarterly report.</p><p><b>▍ This cycle: oversupply and shrinking demand coexist, and the slope of stock price recovery is likely to be weaker than history.</b></p><p>In the latest comparable 2018/19 cycle, the downward trend of the sector was more due to the periodic imbalance of supply and demand structure caused by oversupply. There is also an oversupply situation in this downward cycle. The capital expenditure and capacity expansion situation in the past two years are similar to those in 2017/18, but the capital expenditure density is higher. The most obvious feature of this cycle is that at the same time, oversupply is accompanied by a rapid decline in demand. Taking PC as an example, it is expected that global PC sales will decline by nearly 20% this year, and it is expected that it will still decline by 5% to 10% next year. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening cycle has also brought global macroeconomic and demand uncertainty to continue to rise.. We judge that the current round of U.S. stock semiconductor cycle inventory has basically peaked, but considering the continued shrinkage of the demand side in this downward cycle, the U.S. stock semiconductor sector may still face more disturbances from the demand side during the stock price recovery stage, and the stock price recovery slope The probability is weaker than historically comparable cycles such as 2018/19.</p><p><b>▍ Risk Factors:</b></p><p>The risk of global economic unexpected recession; The slow decline in inflation in Europe and the United States leads to the risk of unexpected tightening of monetary policy; Global geopolitical conflicts lead to difficulties and risks in cross-border flow of technology and talents; The slow reduction of capital expenditure of some enterprises leads to the risk of slow supply clearing; The downside risk of consumer electronics and data center hardware demand exceeding expectations; Intensified market competition, risk of loss of core technical personnel in enterprises, etc.</p><p><b>▍ Investment strategy:</b></p><p>The semiconductor industry has typical cyclical attributes, and the trend change of industry inventory level is the core variable that determines the stock price trend. We judge that 2022Q3 is most likely to be the inventory high point of this round of semiconductor cycle. At the same time, combined with the industry index, the cumulative stock price decline of individual stocks since the high point, and valuation. Value contraction, EPS consensus expected adjustment range, etc., the bottom characteristics of the current sector are more obvious. Considering that this global semiconductor downturn is also accompanied by a shrinking demand side, although the stock price is bottoming out and rebounding, we expect that the recovery slope of the sector's stock price is likely to be weaker than that of historical comparable cycles such as 2018/19.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/quNsLX2eNqGCkCrT0AVjdQ\">中信证券研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95fa9542004799a41389274d58f4daa2","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0321505439.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Acc SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4515":"5G概念"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/quNsLX2eNqGCkCrT0AVjdQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2281214937","content_text":"2022Q3大概率是本轮半导体周期的库存高点中短期视角，半导体行业具有典型周期属性，每次周期持续约3~4年，库存水平是判断行业股价拐点的最核心变量，历次周期中企业EPS、估值调整幅度等，亦能提供良好的基准参考。全球半导体行业当前正处于周期下行通道，我们判断行业库存水平大概率已在三季度见顶，并开始回落，股价亦有望跟随库存水平触底回升。SOX指数（费城半导体）自年初高点已累计下跌44%，调整幅度和历史平均水平（45%）接近，SOX指数、主要代表性企业动态估值亦接近2018/19年下行周期底部水平，市场底部特征明显。考虑到本次下行周期同时伴随供给过剩和需求萎缩，我们虽坚信美股半导体板块股价触底回升的判断，但板块业绩预期短期仍可能面临需求端的持续扰动，股价回升斜率亦大概率弱于2018/19年等历史可比周期。遵从“先进先出”周期法则，并结合个股业绩确定性、估值合理性。▍半导体：具有典型周期属性，库存水平为股价核心影响变量。过去较长时间，全球半导体行业基本保持略高于GDP的年均复合增速，反应半导体产业和宏观经济的较强相关性，以及全社会“含硅量”的持续提升。中短期视角，半导体行业固有的“产能-库存”属性，会带来的阶段性产业供需错配，导致产业具有典型周期属性，每个完整周期持续约3~4年。股价更多是对预期、而非事实的反应，历史数据回溯显示，SOX（费城半导体指数）股价同比变化，和行业库存水平同比变化（库存天数绝对额变化）具有明显负相关性，简单来说，库存水平的高点，一般对应SOX指数股价低点，这亦和半导体行业的主要价格形成机制相一致。我们本篇报告致力于全球半导体周期运行位置的判断，讨论范畴主要聚焦于逻辑芯片、存储芯片两大类，并致力于回答：半导体行业本轮周期库存水平高点、市场对下行周期预期计入程度、本次半导体周期相较于历史的异同之处等。▍库存水平：Q3大概率为本轮周期高点。据SIA数据，2022Q2，全球半导体库存天数约为108天左右，结合相关厂商三季报数据，我们判断行业库存水平在三季度仍在进一步上升。结合台积电、高通、联发科、Intel等企业最新表述，我们判断Q3大概率是本轮半导体周期的库存高点，板块有望经历2022Q4、2023Q1两个季度的库存去化之后，在2023Q2左右恢复到正常库存水平。当前消费电子（智能手机、PC）的疲弱已经被市场所充分认知，但市场亦担忧后续苹果手机、服务器需求的走弱，推动全球半导体库存水平的上行。我们分析认为：1）上市初期销售数据显示，iPhone 14Pro/Pro max占iPhone 14系列销量比重有望从上几代产品的50%左右，提升至60%~65%的水平。理想产品组合、高端消费人群购买力，以及有利的高端手机市场竞争格局等，料将持续支撑苹果手机的短期表现；2）展望2023年，依然强劲的北美云计算市场需求，以及明年英特尔、AMD新一代服务器CPU芯片带来的换机需求，有望推动北美云厂商资本开支继续维持10%左右的增长，进而支撑全球服务器市场需求。▍市场调整：自高点股价跌幅、估值收缩、EPS预期调整，较历史下行周期底部已较为接近。半导体行业历次周期底部的股价、EPS调整幅度，以及市场触底阶段的估值水平等，是市场在底部位置的重要参考基准。自年初高点至今，SOX指数已经累计下跌44%，跌幅明显高于最近数次下行周期，仅好于科网泡沫时期（-84%），以及2008年金融危机时期（-69%）；估值层面，目前SOX PE(NTM)已跌至14X附近，正在接近2018/2019年周期底部的水平，同时从各环节代表性的企业来看，台积电（晶圆制造）、高通（IC设计）的PE（NTM）分别为10、11X，而2018年/19年周期低点分别为12、15X，同时存储芯片厂商当前PB为1.2X，亦和2018年/19年周期低点（1.0X）接近；EPS层面，今年Q2以来，美股主要半导体企业业绩一致预期开始进入向下调整通道，存储芯片领域的美光调整最为剧烈，同时英伟达、英特尔、应用材料等企业亦有明显向下调整，且三季报之后基本均有显著调整。▍本次周期：供给过剩、需求萎缩并存，股价回升斜率大概率弱于历史。最近一次具有可比性的2018/19年周期，板块下行更多源于供给过剩带来的阶段性供需结构失衡。本次下行周期亦存在供给过剩的情形，过去两年的资本开支、产能扩张情形和2017/18年较为相似，但资本开支密度更高。本次周期最明显特征在于：供给过剩同时，亦伴随需求端的快速下滑。以PC为例，预计今年全球PC销量将有接近20%的下滑，预计明年仍将是5%~10%的下滑，同时美联储货币紧缩周期，亦带来全球宏观经济、需求不确定性持续攀升。我们判断，本轮美股半导体周期库存基本筑顶，但考虑到本次下行周期中需求端的持续萎缩，美股半导体板块在股价回升阶段仍可能面临较多来自需求侧的扰动，且股价回升斜率大概率弱于2018/19年等历史可比周期。▍风险因素：全球经济超预期衰退风险；欧美通胀回落速度缓慢导致货币政策超预期收紧风险；全球地缘政治冲突导致技术、人才跨境流动困难风险；部分企业资本开支缩减缓慢导致供给出清缓慢风险；消费电子、数据中心硬件需求超预期下行风险；市场竞争加剧、企业核心技术人员流失风险等。▍投资策略：半导体行业具有典型周期属性，行业库存水平趋势变化是决定股价走势的核心变量，我们判断2022Q3大概率是本轮半导体周期的库存高点，同时结合行业指数、个股自高点的股价累计跌幅、估值收缩、EPS一致预期调整幅度等，当前板块底部特征较为明显。考虑到本次全球半导体下行周期中亦伴随需求端萎缩，虽股价正在触底回升，但我们预计板块股价回升斜率大概率弱于2018/19年等历史可比周期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.76}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918864714,"gmtCreate":1664361308938,"gmtModify":1676537440551,"author":{"id":"3574114530832439","authorId":"3574114530832439","name":"LEE 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