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zh2021
zh2021
·
2022-12-11
[笑哭]
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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zh2021
·
2022-12-10
[惊讶]
Fed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm
有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油
Fed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm
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zh2021
zh2021
·
2022-12-08
[捂脸]
The wave of layoffs on Wall Street is accelerating! Morgan Stanley cuts 1600 jobs
高盛、花旗、巴克莱均在裁员投行的名单上，美银正在放缓招聘速度。美国经济凛冬即将降临，华尔街的裁员“寒气”愈发逼人。当地时间周二，媒体援引知情人士报道，摩根士丹利预计将在全球范围内裁员2%，涉及1600
The wave of layoffs on Wall Street is accelerating! Morgan Stanley cuts 1600 jobs
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zh2021
zh2021
·
2022-12-06
[捂脸]
U.S. stock profits continue to decline under the pressure of recession, and the market may need to suppress if it wants to rise
美股2022年三季度业绩进一步放缓，基本接近零增长。持续加大的增长压力下美股盈利前景如何，对美股后续走势有何影响，本文中我们将重点分析。增长趋势：盈利继续放缓，逼近零增长；能源和交运是主要贡献，金融与
U.S. stock profits continue to decline under the pressure of recession, and the market may need to suppress if it wants to rise
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zh2021
zh2021
·
2022-12-04
[微笑]
Report: U.S. court officially drops Meng Wanzhou's "bank fraud" and other charges
书面裁决表示：“兹命令撤销上述对被告孟晚舟提出的第三次替代起诉，且不能重新提起诉讼。”路透社称，美国方面正式结束了这一导致中美关系紧张的案件。
Report: U.S. court officially drops Meng Wanzhou's "bank fraud" and other charges
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zh2021
zh2021
·
2022-12-04
[惊讶]
What's the situation? Billionaire dies in plane crash! Three currency bosses have died mysteriously
全球“币圈”的离奇事件不断。报道称，塔兰是机上唯一一名乘客，他与机上35岁的法国飞行员均遇难。目前，事故原因仍在调查中。更为神秘的是，原本有一名旅客计划搭乘这架直升机前往摩纳哥，但其在起飞前的最后一刻取消了这趟行程，目前暂不清楚该名旅客的具体信息。近一个多月来，死亡阴影似乎笼罩在加密货币市场，在塔兰之前，已有2位币圈大佬意外离世。
What's the situation? Billionaire dies in plane crash! Three currency bosses have died mysteriously
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zh2021
zh2021
·
2022-12-02
[微笑]
Trillions of apples, "high in debt"
除了iPhone，库克精准的“刀法”很大程度也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。于是一边对iPh
Trillions of apples, "high in debt"
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zh2021
zh2021
·
2022-12-01
[微笑]
"Survived"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue
身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅
"Survived"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue
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zh2021
zh2021
·
2022-12-01
[微笑]
"Survived"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue
身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅
"Survived"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue
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zh2021
zh2021
·
2022-11-10
[微笑]
SMIC's Q3 revenue was US $1.907 billion, net profit was US $470 million
11月10日，中芯国际发布2022年第三季度业绩。财报显示，第三季度营收19.07亿美元，市场预期19.35亿美元，去年同期14.15亿美元；净利润4.7亿美元，市场预期4.93亿美元，去年同期3.2
SMIC's Q3 revenue was US $1.907 billion, net profit was US $470 million
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","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929245153","repostId":"1135427428","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135427428","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670641879,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135427428?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-10 11:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135427428","media":"智通财经网","summary":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. In the past two months, investors have ignored all kinds of warnings-from the worst U.S. bond yield curve inversion in 40 years to the collapse of a sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now appear to be betting that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks sent the S&P 500 down 3.4% this week after it failed to stay above its average price over the past 200 days. Although optimism that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of rate hike has pushed U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now become gloomy. They are worried that if the Federal Reserve really slows down the pace of rate hike, it will signal that the U.S. economy is in a downturn.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing amid aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. service sector shrank last month; While the labor market remains strong, there has been some weakness, with a recent increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked, but is still high enough to keep the Fed on its toes, raising the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, said: \"We will move from'bad data is good news' to'bad data is bad news' because it is a signal that the economy is moving faster and worse than most people expect. speed weakening.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to see a stream of dismal economic news as bad news rather than as reason for upside from the prospect of Fed policy easing. At the same time, inflation in the United States remains high-as evidenced by the higher-than-expected growth rate of PPI in the United States in November. Taken together, this is enough to suppress the rally since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks have led the decline since stocks peaked on the last day of November, unlike the previous three sell-offs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred share prices for raw material producers. More economically sensitive companies, such as financial firms and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged in December.</p><p>The shift is also evident in the fixed income space. Earlier in 2022, when inflation scares raged, bonds plunged in all three instances when the S&P 500 fell at least 10% from its peak. Now, bonds have begun to regain their position as a recession hedge. Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose on Wednesday, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield falling below 3.5%, its lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20 + Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has gained 9% in the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you're buying stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut sometime in the future, unfortunately that means economic weakness will also come sometime in the future. So when you make a wish, be careful.\"</p><p>In recent days, this message has been backed by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs have been unanimously pessimistic about the outlook for U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. Even sell-side analysts, who tend to tout the assets they sell, have been predicting a declining 2023 in a decidedly pessimistic manner. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close at 4,009 next year, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also show that investors are moving away from risky assets. Investors pulled out of global stocks at the fastest pace in five months, selling $35 billion in the past three weeks after they had hoarded $23 billion a week ago, according to EPFR data. The signal of volatility amplitude also reinforces the transient nature of the recent rally, reflecting the situation before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>The level of technical indicators that stimulated buying in November fell back this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average before falling below pullback/retracement levels that helped bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Further complicating matters, November's stock market rally triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to an indicator from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., casting doubt on the Fed's ability to pivot accommodative policy starting next year.</p><p>After being trapped by the intensity and staying power of inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers appear determined to peak rate hike to around 5%. That's bad news for an economy that will contract sometime next year.</p><p>Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial, said: \"There is still a lot of pain to go through. We hardly see the lag effect of this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-10 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. In the past two months, investors have ignored all kinds of warnings-from the worst U.S. bond yield curve inversion in 40 years to the collapse of a sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now appear to be betting that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks sent the S&P 500 down 3.4% this week after it failed to stay above its average price over the past 200 days. Although optimism that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of rate hike has pushed U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now become gloomy. They are worried that if the Federal Reserve really slows down the pace of rate hike, it will signal that the U.S. economy is in a downturn.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing amid aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. service sector shrank last month; While the labor market remains strong, there has been some weakness, with a recent increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked, but is still high enough to keep the Fed on its toes, raising the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, said: \"We will move from'bad data is good news' to'bad data is bad news' because it is a signal that the economy is moving faster and worse than most people expect. speed weakening.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to see a stream of dismal economic news as bad news rather than as reason for upside from the prospect of Fed policy easing. At the same time, inflation in the United States remains high-as evidenced by the higher-than-expected growth rate of PPI in the United States in November. Taken together, this is enough to suppress the rally since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks have led the decline since stocks peaked on the last day of November, unlike the previous three sell-offs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred share prices for raw material producers. More economically sensitive companies, such as financial firms and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged in December.</p><p>The shift is also evident in the fixed income space. Earlier in 2022, when inflation scares raged, bonds plunged in all three instances when the S&P 500 fell at least 10% from its peak. Now, bonds have begun to regain their position as a recession hedge. Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose on Wednesday, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield falling below 3.5%, its lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20 + Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has gained 9% in the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you're buying stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut sometime in the future, unfortunately that means economic weakness will also come sometime in the future. So when you make a wish, be careful.\"</p><p>In recent days, this message has been backed by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs have been unanimously pessimistic about the outlook for U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. Even sell-side analysts, who tend to tout the assets they sell, have been predicting a declining 2023 in a decidedly pessimistic manner. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close at 4,009 next year, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also show that investors are moving away from risky assets. Investors pulled out of global stocks at the fastest pace in five months, selling $35 billion in the past three weeks after they had hoarded $23 billion a week ago, according to EPFR data. The signal of volatility amplitude also reinforces the transient nature of the recent rally, reflecting the situation before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>The level of technical indicators that stimulated buying in November fell back this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average before falling below pullback/retracement levels that helped bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Further complicating matters, November's stock market rally triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to an indicator from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., casting doubt on the Fed's ability to pivot accommodative policy starting next year.</p><p>After being trapped by the intensity and staying power of inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers appear determined to peak rate hike to around 5%. That's bad news for an economy that will contract sometime next year.</p><p>Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial, said: \"There is still a lot of pain to go through. We hardly see the lag effect of this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1135427428","content_text":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油价大幅上涨的破灭;但投资者现在似乎开始押注风险资产面临的最大威胁是经济增长即将放缓。周期性股票导致标普500指数本周下跌3.4%，此前该指数未能维持在过去200天的平均价格之上。尽管自10月中旬以来，对美联储将放慢加息步伐的乐观情绪曾推动美国股市上涨14%，但投资者的情绪现在已经变得阴沉起来，他们担心美联储果真放慢加息步伐，将标志着美国经济陷入低迷。已经有迹象表明，在美联储激进的紧缩政策下，美国经济增长正在放缓。美国服务业上月出现萎缩;尽管劳动力市场依然强劲，但也出现了一些疲软，最近首续请失业金人数增加。与此同时，通胀可能已经见顶，但仍高到足以让美联储保持警惕，增加了过度紧缩的风险。Academy Securities宏观策略主管Peter Tchir表示:“我们将从‘坏数据就是好消息’转变成‘坏数据就是坏消息’，因为这是一个信号，表明经济正在以比大多数人预期的更快、更糟的速度走弱。”市场已经开始将一连串令人沮丧的经济消息视为坏消息，而不是将其视为美联储放宽政策前景带来的上涨理由。与此同时，美国通胀依然居高不下——美国11月PPI增速超预期就是明证。综合来看，这足以打压秋季以来的涨势。自股市在11月最后一天见顶以来，能源股领跌，这与2022年的前三次抛售不同，当时通胀加剧刺激了对原材料生产商的股价。对经济更为敏感的公司，如金融公司和消费品制造商，在12月份的表现较为滞后。这种转变在固定收益领域也很明显。在2022年早些时候，当通胀恐慌肆虐时，标普500指数从峰值下跌至少10%的三次情况中，债券都出现了暴跌。现在，债券已经开始恢复其作为经济衰退对冲的地位。周三，长期美国国债价格上涨，30年期美国国债收益率跌至3.5%以下，这是去年9月以来的最低水平。iShares 20年期以上美国国债ETF在过去三周上涨了9%。Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示:“如果你是基于未来某个时候会降息的想法来购买股票，不幸的是，这意味着经济疲软也会在未来某个时候到来。所以你许愿的时候一定要小心。”最近几天，这一信息得到了华尔街大行高管的支持，华尔街大行的首席执行官们一致对美国经济增长和企业盈利前景持悲观态度。即使是倾向于吹捧自己销售的资产的卖方分析师，也一直在明显悲观地预测，2023年将出现下跌。媒体追踪的策略师的平均预测是，标普500指数明年将收于4009点，这是他们至少自1999年以来最悲观的预测。仓位和交易模式也显示出投资者正在远离风险资产。EPFR的数据显示，投资者以五个月来最快的速度撤出全球股市，在过去三周抛售了350亿美元，而一周前他们还囤积了230亿美元。波动幅度的信号也强化了近期涨势的短暂性，反映了如3月和8月涨势结束前的情况。11月曾刺激买盘的技术指标水平本周出现回落。标普500指数未能守住200日移动均线上方，随后跌穿为多头提供帮助的回撤水平。让事情进一步复杂化的是，根据高盛集团的一项指标，11月的股市上涨引发了自2020年3月以来金融状况最快的宽松，这让人们对美联储从明年开始转向宽松政策的能力产生了怀疑。在被通胀压力的强度和持久力所困后，美联储政策制定者似乎决心将加息到5%左右的峰值。这对于明年某个时候将出现收缩的经济来说是个坏消息。Ameriprise Financial股票研究主管Justin Burgin表示:“还有很多痛苦要经历。我们几乎没有看到这次历史上最快加息的滞后效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920330820,"gmtCreate":1670429138960,"gmtModify":1676538366441,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸] ","listText":"[捂脸] ","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920330820","repostId":"1166364006","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166364006","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1670420490,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166364006?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-07 21:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The wave of layoffs on Wall Street is accelerating! Morgan Stanley cuts 1600 jobs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166364006","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛、花旗、巴克莱均在裁员投行的名单上，美银正在放缓招聘速度。美国经济凛冬即将降临，华尔街的裁员“寒气”愈发逼人。当地时间周二，媒体援引知情人士报道，摩根士丹利预计将在全球范围内裁员2%，涉及1600","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>, Barclays are on the list of investment banks to lay off employees, and Bank of America is slowing down hiring. The winter of the U.S. economy is coming, and the \"chill\" of layoffs on Wall Street is becoming more and more pressing.</p><p>On Tuesday local time, the media quoted people familiar with the matter as reporting,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is expected to cut 2% worldwide, involving 1,600 employees.</b></p><p>The news of mass layoffs is not groundless. Morgan Stanley Chairman and CEO James Gorman said on the third-quarter earnings call that \"(reducing) the number of employees is being considered,\" but did not provide specific details. At the beginning of last month, some media also broke the news that Morgan Stanley was about to lay off employees.</p><p>During the outbreak of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve opened the floodgates and released water wantonly, which indirectly created the prosperity of investment banking trading business. At the same time, it also led to a shortage of manpower in investment banks, which caused them to change the practice of laying off employees before the bonus season. Not only did they suspend layoffs, but they carried out large-scale recruitment, do everything possible to recruit talents.</p><p>Morgan Stanley did the same. As of the end of the third quarter of this year,<b>Morgan Stanley has nearly 82,000 employees, a 34% surge from the first quarter of 2020 before the epidemic broke out in Europe and the United States.</b></p><p>However, since the beginning of this year, due to the Federal Reserve's continued aggressive rate hike, the financial environment has tightened rapidly, and the risk of recession has increased day by day, the transaction growth of the investment industry has shrunk sharply.</p><p>Ernst & Young said that in the third quarter of this year,<b>The trading volume of investment banks was 2,273 transactions, a year-on-year decrease of 36%, and the transaction value was US $289 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 64%.</b></p><p>Compared with Morgan Stanley, other investment banks have obviously moved faster in layoffs. Goldman Sachs started the largest round of layoffs since the epidemic in September, and Citigroup, Barclays and others all joined the latest list of layoffs earlier this month.</p><p>Also in the face of the impending recession, Bank of America's attitude seems to be more calm.<b>Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan sees no need for layoffs.</b>Moynihan told a finance conference Tuesday:</p><p><b>We won't cut staff, but we have the ability to quickly adjust headcount based on staff turnover.</b>Moynihan said that the number of employees at Bank of America in the past two years has fluctuated between 205,000 and 215,000. As of September 30, the bank employed a total of 213,000 employees, about 3,900 more than the same period last year.</p><p>However, he added:</p><p>We have a total of approximately 215,000 employees,<b>We need a pullback on that number.</b>Moynihan also said the bank was slowing hiring as fewer employees decided to leave in a bid to rein in headcount ahead of a recession.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The wave of layoffs on Wall Street is accelerating! Morgan Stanley cuts 1600 jobs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe wave of layoffs on Wall Street is accelerating! Morgan Stanley cuts 1600 jobs\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-07 21:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>, Barclays are on the list of investment banks to lay off employees, and Bank of America is slowing down hiring. The winter of the U.S. economy is coming, and the \"chill\" of layoffs on Wall Street is becoming more and more pressing.</p><p>On Tuesday local time, the media quoted people familiar with the matter as reporting,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is expected to cut 2% worldwide, involving 1,600 employees.</b></p><p>The news of mass layoffs is not groundless. Morgan Stanley Chairman and CEO James Gorman said on the third-quarter earnings call that \"(reducing) the number of employees is being considered,\" but did not provide specific details. At the beginning of last month, some media also broke the news that Morgan Stanley was about to lay off employees.</p><p>During the outbreak of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve opened the floodgates and released water wantonly, which indirectly created the prosperity of investment banking trading business. At the same time, it also led to a shortage of manpower in investment banks, which caused them to change the practice of laying off employees before the bonus season. Not only did they suspend layoffs, but they carried out large-scale recruitment, do everything possible to recruit talents.</p><p>Morgan Stanley did the same. As of the end of the third quarter of this year,<b>Morgan Stanley has nearly 82,000 employees, a 34% surge from the first quarter of 2020 before the epidemic broke out in Europe and the United States.</b></p><p>However, since the beginning of this year, due to the Federal Reserve's continued aggressive rate hike, the financial environment has tightened rapidly, and the risk of recession has increased day by day, the transaction growth of the investment industry has shrunk sharply.</p><p>Ernst & Young said that in the third quarter of this year,<b>The trading volume of investment banks was 2,273 transactions, a year-on-year decrease of 36%, and the transaction value was US $289 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 64%.</b></p><p>Compared with Morgan Stanley, other investment banks have obviously moved faster in layoffs. Goldman Sachs started the largest round of layoffs since the epidemic in September, and Citigroup, Barclays and others all joined the latest list of layoffs earlier this month.</p><p>Also in the face of the impending recession, Bank of America's attitude seems to be more calm.<b>Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan sees no need for layoffs.</b>Moynihan told a finance conference Tuesday:</p><p><b>We won't cut staff, but we have the ability to quickly adjust headcount based on staff turnover.</b>Moynihan said that the number of employees at Bank of America in the past two years has fluctuated between 205,000 and 215,000. As of September 30, the bank employed a total of 213,000 employees, about 3,900 more than the same period last year.</p><p>However, he added:</p><p>We have a total of approximately 215,000 employees,<b>We need a pullback on that number.</b>Moynihan also said the bank was slowing hiring as fewer employees decided to leave in a bid to rein in headcount ahead of a recession.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fa8350588843d92f819ac12ab5ce16","relate_stocks":{"BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","MS":"摩根士丹利","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166364006","content_text":"高盛、花旗、巴克莱均在裁员投行的名单上，美银正在放缓招聘速度。美国经济凛冬即将降临，华尔街的裁员“寒气”愈发逼人。当地时间周二，媒体援引知情人士报道，摩根士丹利预计将在全球范围内裁员2%，涉及1600名员工。大规模裁员的消息并非空穴来风。大摩董事长兼首席执行官James Gorman在三季度财报电话会上表示，“正在考虑（减少）员工人数”，但没有提供具体细节。上月初，也有媒体爆出大摩即将裁员的消息。疫情爆发期间，美联储打开闸门肆意放水，间接造就了投行交易业务的繁荣，同时也导致投行出现人手不足的局面，令其一改在奖金季来临之前裁员的做法，不仅暂停裁员，反而进行大规模招聘，出尽手段招揽人才。大摩也是这样做的。截至今年第三季度末，摩根士丹利的员工人数接近8.2万名，比2020年第一季度疫情在欧美爆发之前飙升了34%。然而今年以来，由于美联储持续激进加息，金融环境快速收紧，衰退风险与日俱增，投行业的交易增长大幅萎缩。安永会计师事务所表示，美国今年第三季度，投行的交易量为2273笔交易，同比下降36%，交易金额为2890亿美元，同比下降64%。与大摩相比，其他投行在裁员方面的行动显然更加迅速。高盛从9月就开启了疫情以来最大的一轮裁员，花旗、巴克莱等本月初都加入了最新裁员企业名单中。同样面对即将到来的衰退，美银的态度似乎更加从容。美银首席执行官Brian Moynihan认为没有裁员的必要。Moynihan周二在一次财务会议上表示：我们不会裁员，但我们有能力根据员工流动情况迅速调整员工数量。Moynihan表示，美银这两年的员工数量在20.5万-21.5万之间浮动。截至9月30日，该行共雇用了21.3万名员工，比去年同期增加约3900人。不过，他补充说：我们的员工总数约为21.5万人，我们需要对这一数字进行回调。Moynihan还表示，由于决定离职的员工越来越少，该行正在放缓招聘速度，以期在经济衰退到来之前控制员工数量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967246370,"gmtCreate":1670340256390,"gmtModify":1676538347883,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸] ","listText":"[捂脸] ","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967246370","repostId":"1195902581","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195902581","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"图文并茂讲解中金深度研究报告","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中金点睛","id":"1012212489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16ed39660b4e0c835afdaf1c94aa75"},"pubTimestamp":1670305215,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195902581?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-06 13:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stock profits continue to decline under the pressure of recession, and the market may need to suppress if it wants to rise","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195902581","media":"中金点睛","summary":"美股2022年三季度业绩进一步放缓，基本接近零增长。持续加大的增长压力下美股盈利前景如何，对美股后续走势有何影响，本文中我们将重点分析。增长趋势：盈利继续放缓，逼近零增长；能源和交运是主要贡献，金融与","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The performance of U.S. stocks in the third quarter of 2022 slowed down further, basically close to zero growth. In this article, we will focus on the analysis of the profit prospects of U.S. stocks under the increasing growth pressure, and what impact it will have on the subsequent trend of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Growth Trend: Earnings continue to slow, approaching zero growth; Energy and transportation are the main contributions, while finance and technology are a greater drag</b></p><p><b>U.S. stock earnings continued to weaken in the third quarter, approaching zero growth.</b>On a comparable basis, the EPS of the S&P 500 in the third quarter only increased by 0.6% year-on-year (non-financial 4.9%), and continued to fall from 2.9% in the second quarter (non-financial 10.5%). Nasdaq 100's third quarter EPS was-1% year-on-year, an improvement from-5.1% in the second quarter. The exceeding rate of the S&P 500 dropped from 2.9% in the second quarter to 1.9% (the pre-epidemic average was 5.4%), and the proportion of exceeding expectations also dropped from 76% in the second quarter to 70% (the pre-epidemic average was 71%). Overall, under high costs and low demand, a further slowdown in U.S. stock earnings is also expected.</p><p><b>Chart: On a comparable basis, the EPS of the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, continuing to fall from 2.9% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd88bce6d3c21dc090a566cd06e96c1e\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 Index EPS-1% year-on-year, up from the previous quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76e860775855f037c4f392e7abe7ed28\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The profit exceeding expectations of the S&P 500 Index in the third quarter continued to fall compared with the previous quarter (1.9% in the third quarter vs. 2.9% in the second quarter), but the number of companies that exceeded expectations still accounted for 70%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d955c32bfc57b2d6af5ae17ebc5aa90\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: More than 75% of companies in information technology, industry, consumer staples, and healthcare still exceed expectations; In terms of exceeding expectations, energy, healthcare, and staple consumption are the highest</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1db520d3f2e5fee56fe6ed927d652f17\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Energy and transportation are the main contributors; Finance is under pressure, and medicine, semiconductors and the Internet are also slowing down.</b>Driven by the low base and the rebound in oil prices (the average price of Brent oil in the third quarter was US $98/barrel vs. US $73/barrel in the third quarter of last year), the year-on-year growth rates of energy, consumer services, and transportation EPS reached 152%, 149%, and 68% respectively.%, the growth rates of automobiles and parts, real estate, etc. are also in the forefront (40%, 39%). In contrast, financials were under pressure, with EPS of-19% year-on-year in the third quarter (vs.-26% in the second quarter). Big Four Banks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>, Citibank,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>) Loan losses rose to US $4.6 billion in the third quarter, and slowing loan demand combined with weak investment banking business also dragged down profits. In addition, the growth rates of raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, durable goods and clothing, semiconductors and media entertainment also dropped significantly. In terms of contribution, energy (4.1 ppt), optional consumption (1.2 ppt), and transportation (1.1 ppt) are the main contributors, with communication services, diversified finance, and insurance dragging down significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: Energy, consumer services, and transportation profits in the third quarter were still significantly ahead year-on-year, while insurance, media and entertainment lagged behind</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6b9a12c96ae1ad8c5b396f648e6b00\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the second quarter, the profit growth rate of retail, real estate, and banks increased, but raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, etc. fell</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee05357e8cc7325932a5aecd947160d\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Among the S&P 500's 0.6% year-on-year EPS growth rate in the third quarter, energy and optional consumption contributed 4.1 and 1.2 ppt, and communication services, diversified finance, and insurance dragged down 2.5, 1.3, and 1.2 ppt</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4288d85b87147287c52f73ba90d721\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Among the Nasdaq 100 Index's-1% year-on-year EPS growth rate, healthcare, information technology, and communication services dragged down significantly, reaching-1.2,-1.1, and-0.9 ppt respectively.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cd4234876e0a3e9215c7e26a9362bf\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the profits of technology companies, as the leading U.S. stock market, have fallen for five consecutive quarters and have turned negative, mainly due to the \"triple pressure\" of weak demand, strong U.S. dollar, and high inflation. Management stated that it will control costs by slowing down recruitment and layoffs.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>, the performance of META technology leaders in the third quarter was lower than expected, and the net profit in the third quarter fell by 89%, 72%, and 52% year-on-year respectively. In addition, due to the relatively high proportion of overseas revenue of technology leaders (FAAMNG average 53% vs. S&P 500 39%), the strong US dollar also has a negative impact. FAAMNG's net profit also fell from 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter as a non-financial proportion of the S&P 500. Many companies have said they will slow down hiring or lay off employees to control costs, and Intel has proposed a cost-cutting plan of tens of billions of dollars.</p><p><b>Chart: Overview of the third quarter performance of leading U.S. technology stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8fcaec4cdf748e5e8d15beb3481067\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department (the proportion of overseas revenue is the proportion of overseas revenue of each company except the United States as of the end of 2021)</p><p><b>Chart: The market value share of US technology leaders (FAAMNG) has dropped from a high of 24.2% in September 2020 to 18.6%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2db5282d9e3ed156330a41bc1fbc9e3d\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG S&P 500 Index performance has a significant negative correlation with U.S. financial conditions</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940ed71b15067e6eaa4e0cd899c1012\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue as a proportion of S&P 500 non-financial fell from a high of 10.7% in September 2021 to 10.4% in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87ba825dc35c2684114291fcf786bf3\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG's net profit as a proportion of S&P 500 non-financial fell from a high of 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e8c72dfd741f0cbb13e1db0dafb270\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue in the third quarter was 10.2% year-on-year, lower than the average of 20% since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef7cd447a8018d85927a9d6cc477d22b\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG net profit in the third quarter was-12.6% year-on-year, lower than the average of 23% since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8eb3628d57210eb18550bfb95869413\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Demand and cost analysis: High costs continue to squeeze profit margins, and industries with low inventories have stronger bargaining power as demand falls</b></p><p><b>Revenue continues to fall amid cooling demand, and high costs continue to squeeze profit margins.</b>The revenue of the S&P 500 in the third quarter increased by 9.3% year-on-year (non-financial 9.6%), which continued to fall from 10.5% (non-financial 11.7%) in the second quarter. In terms of sectors, compared with the second quarter, automobiles and parts rose significantly, but biopharmaceuticals and semiconductors fell significantly. At the same time, high costs continue to squeeze the net profit margin. The net profit margin of the S&P 500 in the third quarter was 11.3%, which continued to fall from 11.7% in the second quarter; The non-financial net profit margin also dropped from 11.3% in the second quarter to 11% in the third quarter. After deducting the energy sector, the net profit margin in the third quarter has fallen back to 10.3% (vs. 10.6% in the second quarter). In terms of sectors, consumer services, household personal products, and public utilities sectors rose significantly, but software and services, raw materials, and media entertainment declined significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: The non-financial income of the S&P 500 Index fell to 9.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, basically consistent with the downward trend of nominal GDP growth</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e37a4547b48a207f6b14f9304e7bf58a\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the second quarter, the growth rate of energy, transportation, and raw material revenue dropped significantly in the third quarter, while capital goods and public utilities rose</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f93c5dae4bd0e9479ebb02394151ebe3\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the net profit margin of the non-financial sector of the S&P 500 Index fell to 11%, and the net profit margin of non-financial and non-energy index fell to 10.3%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432617bcc8b24361e71308483993e643\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The net profit margins of consumer services, household personal products, and public utilities increased significantly, but software and services, media entertainment, and raw materials fell significantly</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07dc321f1823fcf09628835379db8204\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Industries with low inventories can still rely on price increases to ease the pressure on profits.</b>For example, due to high inventory of semiconductors and insufficient bargaining power due to weakening demand, sales revenue has declined significantly, and interest rates have also continued to be under pressure (gross profit margin in the third quarter was 49.9% vs. 51% in the second quarter, and the average since 2013 was 52.5%; net profit margin continued to fall back to 21.7% from 22.3% in the second quarter). On the other hand, for automobiles and parts, as inventories are still insufficient, companies can still maintain profits by raising prices (gross profit margin rose to 14.6% in the third quarter, an average of 12.3% since 2013; net profit margin rose to 5.9%, an average since 2013 4.1%). However, we expect that the weakening of overall demand will gradually erode its profitability after the real recession pressure gradually amplifies next year.</p><p><b>Chart: The sales revenue of the semiconductor sector, whose inventory is still high in the third quarter, has declined, and the gross profit margin continues to fall</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed34a98561525abf0b66269ecd7fad88\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the sales revenue of the auto and parts segment, which was still insufficient in inventory, continued to rise, and the gross profit margin remained stable</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d1a9beea12b9afb5b4b88f9b3bac48\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Growth quality: bond issuance slowed down, cash flow and cash on hand fell; Repurchases decreased; Leverage flat but solvency declines</b></p><p>In terms of growth quality, the non-financial ROE of the S&P 500 fell to 24.3% in the third quarter from 24.9% in the second quarter (dragged down by the decline in net profit margin), and the non-financial and non-energy ROE continued to decline (22.7% vs. 23% in the second quarter). On the cash flow statement, the issuance of credit bonds slowed down in the third quarter, and operating cash flow and cash in hand decreased; Buybacks fell and capital expenditures rose. From the perspective of leverage, financial leverage remained basically unchanged in the third quarter, but solvency declined. Specifically:</p><p><b>Chart: The ROE of the S&P 500 non-financial sector fell back to 24.3% in the third quarter; Net profit margin fell, asset turnover rate and leverage ratio remained basically unchanged</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eb583f51ae503018abb7f8e2e29f45f\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: After deducting energy, ROE fell back to 22.7% in the third quarter; Net profit margin fell, asset turnover rate and leverage ratio increased slightly</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483b8f5974cdc60e81fb5a28b3ab4e6f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Operating cash flow weakened, the issuance of credit bonds slowed down, and cash in hand decreased.</b>In the past 12 months, the non-financial and non-energy operating cash flow of the S&P 500 continued to fall year-on-year in the third quarter (3.8% in the third quarter vs. 8.3% in the second quarter). The rising financing costs amid the continued tightening of the Federal Reserve further slowed down the issuance of corporate credit bonds in the third quarter (US $296.1 billion, down 33% year-on-year). Affected by this, the S&P 500 non-financial and non-energy cash in hand fell from US $1.51 trillion in the second quarter to US $1.48 trillion in the third quarter, accounting for 3.8% of total assets in the third quarter (vs. 3.9% in the second quarter). In terms of sectors, the proportion of cash in hand in total assets for optional consumption, communication services and information technology all dropped significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: Operating cash flow (TTM) of the non-financial sector continued to fall year-on-year in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8310746c9db520a529a467ba5b3a763\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Operating cash flow of energy, utilities, and transportation sectors led year-on-year, but optional consumption and capital goods lagged behind year-on-year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa956efa6c9a6b5c81c3cc8108160b99\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: According to SIFMA statistics, the issuance scale of corporate credit bonds in the third quarter was US $296.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.9%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320880f44c9a20dbceef3fc36061e3b2\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: SIFMA, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 non-financial cash in hand in the third quarter fell to US $1.59 trillion from the previous quarter, of which information technology and optional consumption still accounted for a relatively high proportion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0030b955b4da06b41a7070ed87c2726f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Energy and information technology have the highest proportion of cash in hand in total assets, but only energy, raw materials, and medical care have increased significantly from the previous quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5338234b2fa7464fff89420858f9cb96\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► The scale of repurchases continued to fall.</b>S&P 500 buybacks fell from US $225.7 billion in the second quarter to US $196 billion in the third quarter, accounting for 2.8% of market value from 3% in the second quarter. However, buybacks in the energy sector are still strong (their proportion of market value rose from 6.1% in the second quarter to 6.4% in the third quarter), but information technology fell from 3.8% in the second quarter to 3% in the third quarter. In terms of contribution to EPS, repurchases in the third quarter contributed 5.6% to the growth rate of recurring EPS, which was significantly higher than the 3.3% in the second quarter; The contribution of Nasdaq 100 repurchases to recurring EPS growth increased slightly (2.4% in the third quarter vs. 2.2% in the second quarter).</p><p><b>Chart: The disclosed repurchase amount continued to fall from the previous quarter, approximately US $196 billion, accounting for 2.8% of the market value</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e2aea5a4feeab0897b00a48e7798bf\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Information technology accounts for 30%, optional consumption accounts for 16.4%, finance accounts for 12.8%, and public utilities and real estate account for the lowest proportion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3948111a95f3a55a8d40558fdf8bbece\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Repurchases contributed 5.6% to recurring EPS growth, which continued to rise from 3.3% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c3db1cb34f6bf0e1ab874252212942\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 repurchases contributed about 2.4% to recurring EPS growth, which continued to rise from 2.2% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f294fb4c3d747c910ed8b2d5298d4d59\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Leverage is flat, but solvency is down.</b>In the third quarter, the overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) of the S&P 500 basically remained at 77% in the second quarter, as did the median net leverage ratio of individual stocks (maintained at 60% in the second quarter); However, the overall non-financial interest rate provision ratio (EBIT/(interest expense + capitalized interest)) dropped from 11.3 in the second quarter to 10.1 in the third quarter (the median interest provision ratio of individual stocks dropped from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter). In terms of sectors, the net leverage ratio of energy, healthcare and real estate fell in the third quarter, but information technology rose.</p><p><b>Chart: The median net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks in the third quarter remained at 60% in the second quarter; The same goes for overall net leverage ratios</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae5b91960777c7e6475072b898eeb1e\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The median interest rate provision ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks in the third quarter fell from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter, as did the overall net leverage ratio</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a0d40f107f0f30a48f0bd04498a7707\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Inventory and investment cycle: enter the active destocking cycle; Investment increases but it is difficult to hide the slowdown</b></p><p><b>Enterprises have entered the stage of active destocking, and the inventory of finished products has dropped.</b>In \"The Asset Meaning of Active Destocking in the United States\", we pointed out that the United States has entered the stage of active destocking. In the third quarter, the total non-financial inventory of the S&P 500 continued to rise, but the inventory of raw materials, especially finished products, has gradually declined; The year-on-year growth rate of inventories has also peaked and declined (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter). The average profit reduction (12-month dynamic EPS) during the active destocking stage is 7%, and the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 epidemic is even greater.</p><p><b>Chart: The total non-financial inventory scale of the S&P 500 continued to rise in the third quarter, while the inventory of raw materials and finished products fell</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e815e3a3a6c3d31d6aae3022e143e9d\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of total inventory peaked and fell (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter), as did raw materials, semi-finished products and finished products</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d727ec32cb652c020927614463ee897c\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Looking back at historical experience, the average profit reduction in the active destocking stage (12-month dynamic EPS of the S&P 500 index) is around 7%, and the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 epidemic is even greater</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d44ed7d96d76f27ef4dce0e9def4d5b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Capital expenditure has risen, but it may be difficult to hide the overall slowdown.</b>In the third quarter, the non-financial capital expenditure of the S&P 500 was 21% year-on-year, up from 17% in the second quarter; Capital expenditure after deducting energy was 16.4% year-on-year (vs. 14.7% in the second quarter). The absolute scale has also increased, with energy, telecommunications services, public utilities, technology hardware, semiconductors, etc. being more obvious. From the perspective of macro indicators, U.S. non-residential fixed asset investment actually increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the third quarter (vs. 2.4% in the second quarter), and the scale was also higher than that in the second quarter. 5.3% vs. 2.0% in the second quarter), especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment increased significantly, which may be related to the promotion of the Biden administration's passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chip and Science Act respectively in August 2022 (\"Policy and Market Implications of the U.S. Mid-term Elections\"). However, considering the increasing downward pressure on U.S. growth, the willingness of enterprises to spend capital may also be further suppressed (several local Fed surveys show that corporate asset expenditures in the next six months are expected to fall again since August this year, \"review's Historical Experience of Previous Recessions in the United States\").</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditure increased year-on-year in the second quarter (21% in the third quarter vs. 16.6% in the second quarter)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dce0cc997ed9d3978e28c33f9175e91\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Non-financial and non-energy capital expenditures increased year-on-year (16.4% in the third quarter vs. 14.7% in the second quarter)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd6874bffc97ad18c1533a281be512c\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditures on retail, semiconductors, and telecommunications services in the third quarter exceeded pre-epidemic levels, but there are still gaps in energy, capital goods, and consumer services</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bd00ac75b28b765f2453b4eca27039c\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The growth rate of equipment investment in the third quarter, especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, increased significantly compared with the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0768ed59c5b234392551df0075d91f\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Corporate asset expenditure expectations for the next six months surveyed by multiple local Fed surveys have fallen again since August this year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685326eddb4fb4d6c5a3708058d923d8\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind, CICC Research</p><p>Scoring comprehensive demand, capacity utilization, inventory, capital expenditure and leverage, we found<b>Semiconductor</b>(weak demand, high inventory and investment, high leverage),<b>Media Entertainment</b>(weak demand, high inventory and investment, low production capacity),<b>Telecommunications services</b>(Weak demand, high inventory and leverage) greater pressure;<b>Retail</b>(weak demand, high inventory) and<b>Transportation</b>(Demand is acceptable, but inventory, investment and leverage are higher, and production capacity is low) is also worthy of attention.</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue of telecommunications services, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, media and entertainment in the third quarter was significantly lower than the average since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44169e5de6ab02299336490c4ca9df5b\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the average since 2006, the year-on-year growth rate of semiconductor, media entertainment, consumer services and other inventories is still relatively high</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d81c6065d3b836a99e10c2fb92f14bfb\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of capital expenditures such as energy, transportation, and semiconductors in the third quarter is still relatively high</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b35a9dabb8cab3bf261d670a24871a\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The turnover rate of fixed assets such as software and services, durable consumer goods and clothing, and retail in the third quarter was significantly lower than the average since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff63c2cf442209c225630980152f64d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The leverage ratios of consumer services, technology hardware, transportation, semiconductors, etc. are higher than the 2006 average</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fa5ad9af8268936b20c8786a584a032\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: We found that semiconductors, media entertainment, and telecommunications services are under greater pressure; Retail and transportation are also worth watching</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/281255e89c006f144c82054bb0a57a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research (red indicates higher pressure)</p><p><b>Outlook: U.S. stock profits may continue to decline under the pressure of recession, and are expected to be-5% in 2023; If the market wants to rise, it may need to be suppressed first, and it will bear molecular pressure in the second quarter</b></p><p>Considering that the current financing costs across the board in the United States have exceeded the return on investment (for example, the real yield of investment-grade bonds exceeded the real GDP growth rate by 342bp year-on-year in November; the 3m10s spread is currently inverted by 75bp; the interest rate of high-yield bonds once approached 10%, only lower than the S&P 500 ROIC 265bp; the 30-year mortgage rate was once close to 7%),<b>Therefore, gradually moving towards recession may be a high probability event.</b>According to the historical experience of 3m10s spread inversion, the recessionary pressure may be in the first and second quarters of next year. However, according to the experience of review's 18 rounds of recessions since 1920, deep recessions are generally caused by three reasons: high leverage, too tight monetary policy, or external shocks (\"review's Historical Experience of Previous Recessions in the United States\"). Therefore, as long as the Federal Reserve can stop rate hike in the first quarter, the squeeze of financing costs on return on investment will not be obvious.<b>It will not cause a very deep recession</b>(Looking back at historical experience, the average inversion range of 3m10s is 150bp). Against this background, U.S. stock profits are likely to continue to fall, but the adjustment will not be very large. Currently, we expect that the profit growth rate in 2023 may drop to-5.5%, which still has room for downside from the current market expectation of 5.3%.</p><p><b>Chart: Investment grade bond real yield-real GDP year-on-year growth rate The spread exceeded the threshold in October, reaching 342bp at the end of November</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0eaf8b19cf31e502ee35492e1e49ee\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The 3m10s spread began to invert in early November and is currently inverted by ~ 75bp</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4663493b53707ff32b55df93456a58e\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current U.S. high-yield bond yield is 8.4%, and the spread with the U.S. stock ROIC is about 265bp</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7194ae3b39a04ab2edf5c1f584671d\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Current 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates are 6.5% and 5.8% respectively</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b62d165bb0a8a0ad57ddd08517b423\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current market consensus expects the S&P 500 Index to grow earnings by 5.7% in 2023 and 9.5% in 2024</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72291e9ae52e65e84e4514b787b5207c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>The still not cheap valuation combined with the increased recessionary pressure in the first and second quarters of next year may make U.S. stocks want to rise first.</b>The current 12-month dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 is 17.7 x, higher than the historical average of 16.2 x since 1990. The current tightening decline and the elimination of upside risks in the US Treasury yields have provided interest rate and risk appetite support for U.S. stocks. However, under the increasing pressure of recession in the second quarter of next year, it may not be possible to get compensation from the denominator immediately. After market fluctuations may force out easing expectations, the rapid decline of US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks (\"Deduction of Federal Reserve Policy and Three Stages of Asset Rotation\"). Assuming that the equity risk premium rises to a 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.7% and ~ 3.8% corresponding to the low point at the end of September, the reasonable valuation of the S&P 500 is ~ 15 times. Our reasonable valuations based on growth and liquidity calculations are also roughly the same (48% ISM manufacturing PMI and ~ 3.8% 10-year US Treasury yields correspond to a reasonable valuation of 14.5 ~ 15 times), and the implied support level is 10 ~ 15% lower than the current level. 15%. However, we expect the end of the year to be ~ 5% higher than the current point (\"Outlook for Overseas Markets in 2023: If you want to rise, you may need to suppress it first\".)</p><p><b>Chart: The 12-month dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index is 17.7 times, higher than the average since 1990</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e919e36f5057d48920d53f3e12032741\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The S&P 500's implied equity risk premium has fallen back to a relatively low of 2.2%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c52c6a82a20cef03f58e038ead2090\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 index profit adjustment sentiment continues to fall since turning negative in mid-June this year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9dba718fdc93dd15b49376d1054d05\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: After market volatility in the second quarter of next year may force easing expectations, the rapid decline in US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78374f5487af7a39f1cc2b32d46b82da\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current implied support level of the S&P 500 index is 10 ~ 15% lower than the current level. But we expect the year-end point to be ~ 5% higher than the current point</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2abe0bef81f5c05679b06f9a48ed55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research (red indicates higher pressure)</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stock profits continue to decline under the pressure of recession, and the market may need to suppress if it wants to rise</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stock profits continue to decline under the pressure of recession, and the market may need to suppress if it wants to rise\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012212489\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16ed39660b4e0c835afdaf1c94aa75);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中金点睛 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-06 13:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The performance of U.S. stocks in the third quarter of 2022 slowed down further, basically close to zero growth. In this article, we will focus on the analysis of the profit prospects of U.S. stocks under the increasing growth pressure, and what impact it will have on the subsequent trend of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Growth Trend: Earnings continue to slow, approaching zero growth; Energy and transportation are the main contributions, while finance and technology are a greater drag</b></p><p><b>U.S. stock earnings continued to weaken in the third quarter, approaching zero growth.</b>On a comparable basis, the EPS of the S&P 500 in the third quarter only increased by 0.6% year-on-year (non-financial 4.9%), and continued to fall from 2.9% in the second quarter (non-financial 10.5%). Nasdaq 100's third quarter EPS was-1% year-on-year, an improvement from-5.1% in the second quarter. The exceeding rate of the S&P 500 dropped from 2.9% in the second quarter to 1.9% (the pre-epidemic average was 5.4%), and the proportion of exceeding expectations also dropped from 76% in the second quarter to 70% (the pre-epidemic average was 71%). Overall, under high costs and low demand, a further slowdown in U.S. stock earnings is also expected.</p><p><b>Chart: On a comparable basis, the EPS of the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, continuing to fall from 2.9% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd88bce6d3c21dc090a566cd06e96c1e\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 Index EPS-1% year-on-year, up from the previous quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76e860775855f037c4f392e7abe7ed28\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The profit exceeding expectations of the S&P 500 Index in the third quarter continued to fall compared with the previous quarter (1.9% in the third quarter vs. 2.9% in the second quarter), but the number of companies that exceeded expectations still accounted for 70%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d955c32bfc57b2d6af5ae17ebc5aa90\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: More than 75% of companies in information technology, industry, consumer staples, and healthcare still exceed expectations; In terms of exceeding expectations, energy, healthcare, and staple consumption are the highest</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1db520d3f2e5fee56fe6ed927d652f17\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Energy and transportation are the main contributors; Finance is under pressure, and medicine, semiconductors and the Internet are also slowing down.</b>Driven by the low base and the rebound in oil prices (the average price of Brent oil in the third quarter was US $98/barrel vs. US $73/barrel in the third quarter of last year), the year-on-year growth rates of energy, consumer services, and transportation EPS reached 152%, 149%, and 68% respectively.%, the growth rates of automobiles and parts, real estate, etc. are also in the forefront (40%, 39%). In contrast, financials were under pressure, with EPS of-19% year-on-year in the third quarter (vs.-26% in the second quarter). Big Four Banks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>, Citibank,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>) Loan losses rose to US $4.6 billion in the third quarter, and slowing loan demand combined with weak investment banking business also dragged down profits. In addition, the growth rates of raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, durable goods and clothing, semiconductors and media entertainment also dropped significantly. In terms of contribution, energy (4.1 ppt), optional consumption (1.2 ppt), and transportation (1.1 ppt) are the main contributors, with communication services, diversified finance, and insurance dragging down significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: Energy, consumer services, and transportation profits in the third quarter were still significantly ahead year-on-year, while insurance, media and entertainment lagged behind</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6b9a12c96ae1ad8c5b396f648e6b00\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the second quarter, the profit growth rate of retail, real estate, and banks increased, but raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, etc. fell</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee05357e8cc7325932a5aecd947160d\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Among the S&P 500's 0.6% year-on-year EPS growth rate in the third quarter, energy and optional consumption contributed 4.1 and 1.2 ppt, and communication services, diversified finance, and insurance dragged down 2.5, 1.3, and 1.2 ppt</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4288d85b87147287c52f73ba90d721\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Among the Nasdaq 100 Index's-1% year-on-year EPS growth rate, healthcare, information technology, and communication services dragged down significantly, reaching-1.2,-1.1, and-0.9 ppt respectively.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cd4234876e0a3e9215c7e26a9362bf\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the profits of technology companies, as the leading U.S. stock market, have fallen for five consecutive quarters and have turned negative, mainly due to the \"triple pressure\" of weak demand, strong U.S. dollar, and high inflation. Management stated that it will control costs by slowing down recruitment and layoffs.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>, the performance of META technology leaders in the third quarter was lower than expected, and the net profit in the third quarter fell by 89%, 72%, and 52% year-on-year respectively. In addition, due to the relatively high proportion of overseas revenue of technology leaders (FAAMNG average 53% vs. S&P 500 39%), the strong US dollar also has a negative impact. FAAMNG's net profit also fell from 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter as a non-financial proportion of the S&P 500. Many companies have said they will slow down hiring or lay off employees to control costs, and Intel has proposed a cost-cutting plan of tens of billions of dollars.</p><p><b>Chart: Overview of the third quarter performance of leading U.S. technology stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8fcaec4cdf748e5e8d15beb3481067\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department (the proportion of overseas revenue is the proportion of overseas revenue of each company except the United States as of the end of 2021)</p><p><b>Chart: The market value share of US technology leaders (FAAMNG) has dropped from a high of 24.2% in September 2020 to 18.6%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2db5282d9e3ed156330a41bc1fbc9e3d\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG S&P 500 Index performance has a significant negative correlation with U.S. financial conditions</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940ed71b15067e6eaa4e0cd899c1012\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue as a proportion of S&P 500 non-financial fell from a high of 10.7% in September 2021 to 10.4% in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87ba825dc35c2684114291fcf786bf3\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG's net profit as a proportion of S&P 500 non-financial fell from a high of 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e8c72dfd741f0cbb13e1db0dafb270\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue in the third quarter was 10.2% year-on-year, lower than the average of 20% since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef7cd447a8018d85927a9d6cc477d22b\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG net profit in the third quarter was-12.6% year-on-year, lower than the average of 23% since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8eb3628d57210eb18550bfb95869413\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Demand and cost analysis: High costs continue to squeeze profit margins, and industries with low inventories have stronger bargaining power as demand falls</b></p><p><b>Revenue continues to fall amid cooling demand, and high costs continue to squeeze profit margins.</b>The revenue of the S&P 500 in the third quarter increased by 9.3% year-on-year (non-financial 9.6%), which continued to fall from 10.5% (non-financial 11.7%) in the second quarter. In terms of sectors, compared with the second quarter, automobiles and parts rose significantly, but biopharmaceuticals and semiconductors fell significantly. At the same time, high costs continue to squeeze the net profit margin. The net profit margin of the S&P 500 in the third quarter was 11.3%, which continued to fall from 11.7% in the second quarter; The non-financial net profit margin also dropped from 11.3% in the second quarter to 11% in the third quarter. After deducting the energy sector, the net profit margin in the third quarter has fallen back to 10.3% (vs. 10.6% in the second quarter). In terms of sectors, consumer services, household personal products, and public utilities sectors rose significantly, but software and services, raw materials, and media entertainment declined significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: The non-financial income of the S&P 500 Index fell to 9.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, basically consistent with the downward trend of nominal GDP growth</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e37a4547b48a207f6b14f9304e7bf58a\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the second quarter, the growth rate of energy, transportation, and raw material revenue dropped significantly in the third quarter, while capital goods and public utilities rose</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f93c5dae4bd0e9479ebb02394151ebe3\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the net profit margin of the non-financial sector of the S&P 500 Index fell to 11%, and the net profit margin of non-financial and non-energy index fell to 10.3%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432617bcc8b24361e71308483993e643\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The net profit margins of consumer services, household personal products, and public utilities increased significantly, but software and services, media entertainment, and raw materials fell significantly</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07dc321f1823fcf09628835379db8204\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Industries with low inventories can still rely on price increases to ease the pressure on profits.</b>For example, due to high inventory of semiconductors and insufficient bargaining power due to weakening demand, sales revenue has declined significantly, and interest rates have also continued to be under pressure (gross profit margin in the third quarter was 49.9% vs. 51% in the second quarter, and the average since 2013 was 52.5%; net profit margin continued to fall back to 21.7% from 22.3% in the second quarter). On the other hand, for automobiles and parts, as inventories are still insufficient, companies can still maintain profits by raising prices (gross profit margin rose to 14.6% in the third quarter, an average of 12.3% since 2013; net profit margin rose to 5.9%, an average since 2013 4.1%). However, we expect that the weakening of overall demand will gradually erode its profitability after the real recession pressure gradually amplifies next year.</p><p><b>Chart: The sales revenue of the semiconductor sector, whose inventory is still high in the third quarter, has declined, and the gross profit margin continues to fall</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed34a98561525abf0b66269ecd7fad88\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the sales revenue of the auto and parts segment, which was still insufficient in inventory, continued to rise, and the gross profit margin remained stable</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d1a9beea12b9afb5b4b88f9b3bac48\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Growth quality: bond issuance slowed down, cash flow and cash on hand fell; Repurchases decreased; Leverage flat but solvency declines</b></p><p>In terms of growth quality, the non-financial ROE of the S&P 500 fell to 24.3% in the third quarter from 24.9% in the second quarter (dragged down by the decline in net profit margin), and the non-financial and non-energy ROE continued to decline (22.7% vs. 23% in the second quarter). On the cash flow statement, the issuance of credit bonds slowed down in the third quarter, and operating cash flow and cash in hand decreased; Buybacks fell and capital expenditures rose. From the perspective of leverage, financial leverage remained basically unchanged in the third quarter, but solvency declined. Specifically:</p><p><b>Chart: The ROE of the S&P 500 non-financial sector fell back to 24.3% in the third quarter; Net profit margin fell, asset turnover rate and leverage ratio remained basically unchanged</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eb583f51ae503018abb7f8e2e29f45f\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: After deducting energy, ROE fell back to 22.7% in the third quarter; Net profit margin fell, asset turnover rate and leverage ratio increased slightly</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483b8f5974cdc60e81fb5a28b3ab4e6f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Operating cash flow weakened, the issuance of credit bonds slowed down, and cash in hand decreased.</b>In the past 12 months, the non-financial and non-energy operating cash flow of the S&P 500 continued to fall year-on-year in the third quarter (3.8% in the third quarter vs. 8.3% in the second quarter). The rising financing costs amid the continued tightening of the Federal Reserve further slowed down the issuance of corporate credit bonds in the third quarter (US $296.1 billion, down 33% year-on-year). Affected by this, the S&P 500 non-financial and non-energy cash in hand fell from US $1.51 trillion in the second quarter to US $1.48 trillion in the third quarter, accounting for 3.8% of total assets in the third quarter (vs. 3.9% in the second quarter). In terms of sectors, the proportion of cash in hand in total assets for optional consumption, communication services and information technology all dropped significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: Operating cash flow (TTM) of the non-financial sector continued to fall year-on-year in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8310746c9db520a529a467ba5b3a763\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Operating cash flow of energy, utilities, and transportation sectors led year-on-year, but optional consumption and capital goods lagged behind year-on-year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa956efa6c9a6b5c81c3cc8108160b99\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: According to SIFMA statistics, the issuance scale of corporate credit bonds in the third quarter was US $296.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.9%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320880f44c9a20dbceef3fc36061e3b2\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: SIFMA, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 non-financial cash in hand in the third quarter fell to US $1.59 trillion from the previous quarter, of which information technology and optional consumption still accounted for a relatively high proportion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0030b955b4da06b41a7070ed87c2726f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Energy and information technology have the highest proportion of cash in hand in total assets, but only energy, raw materials, and medical care have increased significantly from the previous quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5338234b2fa7464fff89420858f9cb96\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► The scale of repurchases continued to fall.</b>S&P 500 buybacks fell from US $225.7 billion in the second quarter to US $196 billion in the third quarter, accounting for 2.8% of market value from 3% in the second quarter. However, buybacks in the energy sector are still strong (their proportion of market value rose from 6.1% in the second quarter to 6.4% in the third quarter), but information technology fell from 3.8% in the second quarter to 3% in the third quarter. In terms of contribution to EPS, repurchases in the third quarter contributed 5.6% to the growth rate of recurring EPS, which was significantly higher than the 3.3% in the second quarter; The contribution of Nasdaq 100 repurchases to recurring EPS growth increased slightly (2.4% in the third quarter vs. 2.2% in the second quarter).</p><p><b>Chart: The disclosed repurchase amount continued to fall from the previous quarter, approximately US $196 billion, accounting for 2.8% of the market value</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e2aea5a4feeab0897b00a48e7798bf\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Information technology accounts for 30%, optional consumption accounts for 16.4%, finance accounts for 12.8%, and public utilities and real estate account for the lowest proportion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3948111a95f3a55a8d40558fdf8bbece\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Repurchases contributed 5.6% to recurring EPS growth, which continued to rise from 3.3% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c3db1cb34f6bf0e1ab874252212942\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 repurchases contributed about 2.4% to recurring EPS growth, which continued to rise from 2.2% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f294fb4c3d747c910ed8b2d5298d4d59\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Leverage is flat, but solvency is down.</b>In the third quarter, the overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) of the S&P 500 basically remained at 77% in the second quarter, as did the median net leverage ratio of individual stocks (maintained at 60% in the second quarter); However, the overall non-financial interest rate provision ratio (EBIT/(interest expense + capitalized interest)) dropped from 11.3 in the second quarter to 10.1 in the third quarter (the median interest provision ratio of individual stocks dropped from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter). In terms of sectors, the net leverage ratio of energy, healthcare and real estate fell in the third quarter, but information technology rose.</p><p><b>Chart: The median net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks in the third quarter remained at 60% in the second quarter; The same goes for overall net leverage ratios</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae5b91960777c7e6475072b898eeb1e\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The median interest rate provision ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks in the third quarter fell from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter, as did the overall net leverage ratio</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a0d40f107f0f30a48f0bd04498a7707\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Inventory and investment cycle: enter the active destocking cycle; Investment increases but it is difficult to hide the slowdown</b></p><p><b>Enterprises have entered the stage of active destocking, and the inventory of finished products has dropped.</b>In \"The Asset Meaning of Active Destocking in the United States\", we pointed out that the United States has entered the stage of active destocking. In the third quarter, the total non-financial inventory of the S&P 500 continued to rise, but the inventory of raw materials, especially finished products, has gradually declined; The year-on-year growth rate of inventories has also peaked and declined (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter). The average profit reduction (12-month dynamic EPS) during the active destocking stage is 7%, and the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 epidemic is even greater.</p><p><b>Chart: The total non-financial inventory scale of the S&P 500 continued to rise in the third quarter, while the inventory of raw materials and finished products fell</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e815e3a3a6c3d31d6aae3022e143e9d\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of total inventory peaked and fell (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter), as did raw materials, semi-finished products and finished products</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d727ec32cb652c020927614463ee897c\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Looking back at historical experience, the average profit reduction in the active destocking stage (12-month dynamic EPS of the S&P 500 index) is around 7%, and the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 epidemic is even greater</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d44ed7d96d76f27ef4dce0e9def4d5b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Capital expenditure has risen, but it may be difficult to hide the overall slowdown.</b>In the third quarter, the non-financial capital expenditure of the S&P 500 was 21% year-on-year, up from 17% in the second quarter; Capital expenditure after deducting energy was 16.4% year-on-year (vs. 14.7% in the second quarter). The absolute scale has also increased, with energy, telecommunications services, public utilities, technology hardware, semiconductors, etc. being more obvious. From the perspective of macro indicators, U.S. non-residential fixed asset investment actually increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the third quarter (vs. 2.4% in the second quarter), and the scale was also higher than that in the second quarter. 5.3% vs. 2.0% in the second quarter), especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment increased significantly, which may be related to the promotion of the Biden administration's passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chip and Science Act respectively in August 2022 (\"Policy and Market Implications of the U.S. Mid-term Elections\"). However, considering the increasing downward pressure on U.S. growth, the willingness of enterprises to spend capital may also be further suppressed (several local Fed surveys show that corporate asset expenditures in the next six months are expected to fall again since August this year, \"review's Historical Experience of Previous Recessions in the United States\").</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditure increased year-on-year in the second quarter (21% in the third quarter vs. 16.6% in the second quarter)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dce0cc997ed9d3978e28c33f9175e91\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Non-financial and non-energy capital expenditures increased year-on-year (16.4% in the third quarter vs. 14.7% in the second quarter)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd6874bffc97ad18c1533a281be512c\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditures on retail, semiconductors, and telecommunications services in the third quarter exceeded pre-epidemic levels, but there are still gaps in energy, capital goods, and consumer services</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bd00ac75b28b765f2453b4eca27039c\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The growth rate of equipment investment in the third quarter, especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, increased significantly compared with the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0768ed59c5b234392551df0075d91f\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Corporate asset expenditure expectations for the next six months surveyed by multiple local Fed surveys have fallen again since August this year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685326eddb4fb4d6c5a3708058d923d8\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind, CICC Research</p><p>Scoring comprehensive demand, capacity utilization, inventory, capital expenditure and leverage, we found<b>Semiconductor</b>(weak demand, high inventory and investment, high leverage),<b>Media Entertainment</b>(weak demand, high inventory and investment, low production capacity),<b>Telecommunications services</b>(Weak demand, high inventory and leverage) greater pressure;<b>Retail</b>(weak demand, high inventory) and<b>Transportation</b>(Demand is acceptable, but inventory, investment and leverage are higher, and production capacity is low) is also worthy of attention.</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue of telecommunications services, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, media and entertainment in the third quarter was significantly lower than the average since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44169e5de6ab02299336490c4ca9df5b\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the average since 2006, the year-on-year growth rate of semiconductor, media entertainment, consumer services and other inventories is still relatively high</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d81c6065d3b836a99e10c2fb92f14bfb\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of capital expenditures such as energy, transportation, and semiconductors in the third quarter is still relatively high</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b35a9dabb8cab3bf261d670a24871a\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The turnover rate of fixed assets such as software and services, durable consumer goods and clothing, and retail in the third quarter was significantly lower than the average since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff63c2cf442209c225630980152f64d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The leverage ratios of consumer services, technology hardware, transportation, semiconductors, etc. are higher than the 2006 average</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fa5ad9af8268936b20c8786a584a032\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: We found that semiconductors, media entertainment, and telecommunications services are under greater pressure; Retail and transportation are also worth watching</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/281255e89c006f144c82054bb0a57a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research (red indicates higher pressure)</p><p><b>Outlook: U.S. stock profits may continue to decline under the pressure of recession, and are expected to be-5% in 2023; If the market wants to rise, it may need to be suppressed first, and it will bear molecular pressure in the second quarter</b></p><p>Considering that the current financing costs across the board in the United States have exceeded the return on investment (for example, the real yield of investment-grade bonds exceeded the real GDP growth rate by 342bp year-on-year in November; the 3m10s spread is currently inverted by 75bp; the interest rate of high-yield bonds once approached 10%, only lower than the S&P 500 ROIC 265bp; the 30-year mortgage rate was once close to 7%),<b>Therefore, gradually moving towards recession may be a high probability event.</b>According to the historical experience of 3m10s spread inversion, the recessionary pressure may be in the first and second quarters of next year. However, according to the experience of review's 18 rounds of recessions since 1920, deep recessions are generally caused by three reasons: high leverage, too tight monetary policy, or external shocks (\"review's Historical Experience of Previous Recessions in the United States\"). Therefore, as long as the Federal Reserve can stop rate hike in the first quarter, the squeeze of financing costs on return on investment will not be obvious.<b>It will not cause a very deep recession</b>(Looking back at historical experience, the average inversion range of 3m10s is 150bp). Against this background, U.S. stock profits are likely to continue to fall, but the adjustment will not be very large. Currently, we expect that the profit growth rate in 2023 may drop to-5.5%, which still has room for downside from the current market expectation of 5.3%.</p><p><b>Chart: Investment grade bond real yield-real GDP year-on-year growth rate The spread exceeded the threshold in October, reaching 342bp at the end of November</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0eaf8b19cf31e502ee35492e1e49ee\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The 3m10s spread began to invert in early November and is currently inverted by ~ 75bp</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4663493b53707ff32b55df93456a58e\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current U.S. high-yield bond yield is 8.4%, and the spread with the U.S. stock ROIC is about 265bp</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7194ae3b39a04ab2edf5c1f584671d\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Current 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates are 6.5% and 5.8% respectively</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b62d165bb0a8a0ad57ddd08517b423\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current market consensus expects the S&P 500 Index to grow earnings by 5.7% in 2023 and 9.5% in 2024</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72291e9ae52e65e84e4514b787b5207c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>The still not cheap valuation combined with the increased recessionary pressure in the first and second quarters of next year may make U.S. stocks want to rise first.</b>The current 12-month dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 is 17.7 x, higher than the historical average of 16.2 x since 1990. The current tightening decline and the elimination of upside risks in the US Treasury yields have provided interest rate and risk appetite support for U.S. stocks. However, under the increasing pressure of recession in the second quarter of next year, it may not be possible to get compensation from the denominator immediately. After market fluctuations may force out easing expectations, the rapid decline of US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks (\"Deduction of Federal Reserve Policy and Three Stages of Asset Rotation\"). Assuming that the equity risk premium rises to a 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.7% and ~ 3.8% corresponding to the low point at the end of September, the reasonable valuation of the S&P 500 is ~ 15 times. Our reasonable valuations based on growth and liquidity calculations are also roughly the same (48% ISM manufacturing PMI and ~ 3.8% 10-year US Treasury yields correspond to a reasonable valuation of 14.5 ~ 15 times), and the implied support level is 10 ~ 15% lower than the current level. 15%. However, we expect the end of the year to be ~ 5% higher than the current point (\"Outlook for Overseas Markets in 2023: If you want to rise, you may need to suppress it first\".)</p><p><b>Chart: The 12-month dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index is 17.7 times, higher than the average since 1990</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e919e36f5057d48920d53f3e12032741\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The S&P 500's implied equity risk premium has fallen back to a relatively low of 2.2%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c52c6a82a20cef03f58e038ead2090\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 index profit adjustment sentiment continues to fall since turning negative in mid-June this year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9dba718fdc93dd15b49376d1054d05\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: After market volatility in the second quarter of next year may force easing expectations, the rapid decline in US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78374f5487af7a39f1cc2b32d46b82da\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current implied support level of the S&P 500 index is 10 ~ 15% lower than the current level. But we expect the year-end point to be ~ 5% higher than the current point</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2abe0bef81f5c05679b06f9a48ed55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research (red indicates higher pressure)</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195902581","content_text":"美股2022年三季度业绩进一步放缓，基本接近零增长。持续加大的增长压力下美股盈利前景如何，对美股后续走势有何影响，本文中我们将重点分析。增长趋势：盈利继续放缓，逼近零增长；能源和交运是主要贡献，金融与科技拖累较大三季度美股盈利继续趋弱，逼近零增长。可比口径下，标普500三季度EPS同比仅增长0.6%（非金融4.9%），较二季度2.9%继续回落（非金融10.5%）。纳斯达克100三季度EPS同比-1%，较二季度-5.1%改善。标普500超预期幅度较二季度2.9%回落至1.9%（疫情前均值为5.4%），超预期占比也从二季度76%降至70%（疫情前均值71%）。整体看，高成本和低需求下，美股盈利进一步放缓也在预期之中。图表：可比口径下，三季度标普500指数EPS同比增长0.6%，较二季度2.9%继续回落资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：纳斯达克100指数EPS同比-1%，较上季度抬升资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500指数盈利超预期幅度较上季度继续回落（三季度1.9% vs. 二季度2.9%），但超预期公司数占比仍达70%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：信息科技、工业、必需消费、医疗保健仍有超过75%公司超预期；超预期幅度上，能源、医疗保健、必需消费最高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部能源和交运是主要贡献；金融承压，医药、半导体及互联网同样放缓。受低基数和油价反弹驱动（布油三季度均价 98美元/桶 vs. 去年三季度73美元/桶），能源、消费者服务、交通运输EPS同比增速分别达152%、149%和68%，汽车与零部件、房地产等增速也位居前列（40%、39%）。相比之下，金融承压，三季度EPS同比-19%（vs. 二季度-26%）。四大银行（美国银行、花旗银行、摩根大通、富国银行）贷款损失三季度升至46亿美元，贷款需求放缓叠加投行业务疲软也拖累利润。此外，原材料、保险、生物制药、耐用品及服装、半导体及媒体娱乐增速也回落明显。从贡献程度看，能源（4.1ppt）、可选消费（1.2ppt）、交通运输（1.1ppt）是主要贡献，通讯服务、多元金融、保险拖累明显。图表：三季度能源、消费者服务、交通运输盈利同比依然大幅领先，保险、媒体与娱乐等落后资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：相比二季度，零售、房地产、银行盈利增速抬升，但原材料、保险、生物制药等回落资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500 0.6%的EPS同比增速中，能源及可选消费贡献4.1和1.2ppt，通讯服务、多元金融、保险拖累2.5、1.3、1.2ppt资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：纳斯达克100指数-1%的EPS同比增速中，医疗保健、信息科技、通讯服务拖累明显，分别达-1.2、-1.1和-0.9ppt资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部值得一提的是，作为美股龙头的科技企业盈利连续五个季度回落并已转负，主要受弱需求、强美元、高通胀“三重压力”，管理层表示通过放缓招聘和裁员控制成本。英特尔、英伟达、META科技龙头三季度业绩表现均不及预期，三季度净利润同比分别下滑89%、72%、52%。此外，由于科技龙头海外收入占比较高（FAAMNG平均53% vs. 标普500 39%），强美元也造成负面影响。FAAMNG净利润占标普500非金融比例也从2020年末的27%降至三季度的17.7%。许多公司表示将放缓招聘或裁员以控制成本，英特尔提出了百亿美元的成本削减方案。图表：美股科技龙头三季度业绩情况一览资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部（海外收入占比为截至2021年末各公司除美国外海外收入占比）图表：美股科技龙头（FAAMNG）市值占比已从2020年9月24.2%的高位回落至18.6%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：FAAMNG标普500指数表现与美国金融条件有明显负相关性资料来源：Bloomberg，FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：FAAMNG收入占标普500非金融比例从2021年9月10.7%高位回落至三季度10.4%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：FAAMNG净利润占标普500非金融比例从2020年末27%的高位回落至三季度的17.7%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度FAAMNG收入同比10.2%，低于2006年以来20%的均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度FAAMNG净利润同比-12.6%，低于2006年以来23%的均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部需求与成本分析：高成本继续挤压利润率，需求回落下库存偏低行业议价能力更强需求降温下收入继续回落，高成本继续挤压利润率。标普500三季收入同比增长9.3%（非金融9.6%），较二季度10.5%（非金融11.7%）继续回落。分板块看，相比二季度，汽车与零部件抬升明显，但生物制药及半导体显著回落。与此同时，高成本继续挤压净利润率，标普500三季度净利润率11.3%，较二季度11.7%继续回落；非金融净利润率同样从二季度的11.3%回落至三季度的11%。扣除能源板块后，三季度净利润率已回落至10.3%（vs. 二季度的10.6%）。分板块看，消费者服务、家庭个人用品、公用事业板块抬升明显，但软件与服务、原材料、媒体娱乐显著回落。图表：三季度标普500指数非金融收入同比回落至9.6%，与名义GDP增速回落趋势基本一致资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：相比二季度，三季度能源、交通运输、原材料收入增速回落明显，资本品、公用事业抬升资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500指数非金融板块净利润率回落至11%，非金融非能源净利润率回落至10.3%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：消费者服务、家庭个人用品、公用事业净利润率抬升明显，但软件与服务、媒体娱乐、原材料显著回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部库存偏低行业仍能依靠涨价来缓解利润端压力。例如，半导体由于库存偏高，需求趋弱下议价能力不足，销售收入明显下滑，利率端同样持续承压（三季度毛利率49.9% vs. 二季度51%，2013年以来均值52.5%；净利润率较二季度的22.3%继续回落至21.7%）。反观汽车与零部件，由于库存依然不足，企业仍可通过提价来维持利润（三季度毛利率升至14.6%，2013年以来均值12.3%；净利润率抬升至5.9%，2013年以来均值4.1%）。但我们预计明年真实衰退压力逐步放大后整体需求的趋弱也会逐渐侵蚀其盈利能力。图表：三季度库存依然偏高的半导体板块销售收入已经下滑，且毛利率继续回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度库存依然不足的汽车与零部件板块销售收入继续抬升，毛利率维持稳定资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部增长质量：发债放缓、现金流与在手现金回落；回购减少；杠杆持平但偿付能力下降增长质量看，三季度标普500非金融ROE从二季度的24.9%降至24.3%（受净利润率下滑拖累），非金融非能源ROE继续走低（22.7% vs. 二季度23%）。现金流量表上，三季度信用债发行趋缓，经营现金流与在手现金减少；回购回落，资本开支抬升。杠杆角度，三季度财务杠杆基本维持不变，但偿付能力下降。具体来看：图表：三季度标普500非金融板块ROE回落至24.3%；净利润率回落、资产周转率及杠杆率基本不变资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：扣除能源后，三季度ROE回落至22.7%；净利润率回落，资产周转率及杠杆率略有抬升资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部► 经营性现金流趋弱，信用债发行趋缓，在手现金减少。过去12个月口径，三季度标普500非金融非能源经营性现金流同比继续回落（三季度3.8% vs. 二季度8.3%）。美联储持续紧缩下融资成本抬升使得三季度企业信用债发行进一步放缓（2961亿美元，同比回落33%）。受此影响，标普500非金融非能源在手现金规模从二季度的1.51万亿美元回落至三季度的1.48万亿美元，占总资产比例降至三季度3.8%（vs. 二季度3.9%）。分板块看，可选消费、通讯服务及信息科技在手现金占总资产比例均回落明显。图表：三季度非金融板块经营性现金流同比（TTM）继续回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：能源、公用事业、交通运输板块经营性现金流同比领先，但可选消费、资本品同比落后资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：根据SIFMA统计，三季度企业信用债发行规模2961亿美元，同比回落32.9%，环比回落3.9%资料来源：SIFMA，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500非金融在手现金较上季度回落至1.59万亿美元，其中信息科技、可选消费仍占比较高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：能源、信息科技在手现金占总资产比例最高，但仅能源、原材料、医疗保健较上季度抬升明显资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部► 回购规模继续回落。标普500回购从二季度的2257亿美元降至三季度1960亿美元，占市值比例从二季度3%降至2.8%。不过，能源板块回购依然较强（占市值比例从二季度的6.1%升至三季度的6.4%），但信息科技则从二季度3.8%降至三季度的3%。对EPS贡献上，三季度回购对经常性EPS增速贡献5.6%，较二季度3.3%抬升明显；纳斯达克100回购对经常性EPS增速贡献略有抬升（三季度2.4% vs. 二季度2.2%）。图表：已披露的回购金额较上季度继续回落，约1960亿美元，占市值比例降至2.8%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：信息技术占30%、可选消费占16.4%、金融占12.8%，公用事业及房地产占比最低资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：回购对经常性EPS增速贡献5.6%，较二季度的3.3%继续抬升资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：纳斯达克100回购对经常性EPS增速贡献约2.4%，较二季度的2.2%继续抬升资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部► 杠杆持平，但偿付能力下降。三季度标普500非金融整体净杠杆率（净债务/净资产）基本维持在二季度的77%，个股净杠杆率中值亦是如此（维持在二季度的60%）；但非金融整体利率备付率（EBIT/（利息费用+资本化利息））从二季度11.3降至三季度10.1（个股利息备付率中值从二季度的9.6降至三季度的8.9）。分板块看，能源、医疗保健及房地产三季度净杠杆率有所回落，但信息科技有所抬升。图表：三季度标普500非金融个股净杠杆率中位数维持在二季度的60%；整体净杠杆率亦是如此资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500非金融个股利率备付率中值从二季度的9.6降至三季度的8.9，整体净杠杆率亦是如此资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部库存与投资周期：进入主动去库周期；投资增加但难掩放缓格局企业进入主动去库阶段，产成品库存回落。我们在《美国主动去库存的资产含义》中指出美国已进入主动去库存阶段。三季度标普500非金融总库存继续抬升，但原材料尤其是产成品库存已逐步回落；库存同比增速也已见顶下行（三季度17.5% vs. 二季度21.3%）。主动去库存阶段盈利下调幅度（12个月动态EPS）平均为7%，2008年金融危机和2020年疫情造成的影响更大。图表：三季度标普500非金融总库存规模继续抬升，原材料和产成品库存回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：总库存同比增速见顶回落（三季度17.5% vs. 二季度21.3%），原材料、半成品及产成品亦是如此资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：回顾历史经验，主动去库存阶段盈利下调幅度（标普500指数12个月动态EPS）平均在7%左右，2008年金融危机和2020年疫情造成的影响更大资料来源：FactSet，Haver，中金公司研究部资本开支抬升，但或难掩整体放缓格局。三季度标普500非金融资本开支同比21%，较二季度17%抬升；扣除能源后资本开支同比16.4%（vs.二季度14.7%）。绝对规模同样抬升，能源、电信服务、公用事业、科技硬件、半导体等较为明显。从宏观指标看，三季度美国非住宅固定资产投资实际同比增长3.2%（vs.二季度2.4%），规模较二季度同样走高，其中无形资产和设施投资同比回落，但设备投资（三季度同比5.3%vs.二季度2.0%），尤其是信息处理设备与运输设备抬升明显，这可能与2022年8月拜登政府分别通过通胀削减法案及芯片与科学法案的促进有关（《美国中期选举的政策与市场含义》）。不过，考虑到美国增长下滑压力加大，企业资本开支意愿也可能进一步受到抑制（多个地方联储调查未来6个月企业资产开支预期自今年8月以来再度回落，《复盘美国历次衰退的历史经验》）。图表：资本开支同比较二季度抬升（三季度21% vs. 二季度16.6%）资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：非金融非能源资本开支同比抬升（三季度16.4% vs. 二季度14.7%）资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度零售、半导体、电信服务资本开支规模超过疫情前水平，但能源、资本品、消费者服务等仍有差距资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度设备投资，尤其是信息处理设备以及运输设备增速较二季度抬升明显资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部图表：多个地方联储调查的未来6个月企业资产开支预期自今年8月以来再度回落资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部综合需求、产能利用率，库存、资本开支以及杠杆情况进行打分，我们发现半导体（需求弱、库存与投资高、杠杆高）、媒体娱乐（需求弱、库存及投资高、产能低）、电信服务（需求弱、库存及杠杆高）压力更大；零售（需求弱、库存高）和交通运输（需求尚可、但库存、投资及杠杆更高，且产能较低）同样值得关注。图表：三季度电信服务、生物科技与制药、媒体与娱乐销售收入同比增速显著低于2006年以来均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：相比2006年以来均值，半导体、媒体娱乐、消费者服务等库存同比增速依然较高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度能源、交通运输、半导体等资本开支同比增速依然较高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度软件与服务、耐用消费品与服装、零售等固定资产周转率显著低于2006年以来均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：消费者服务、科技硬件、运输、半导体等杠杆率较2006年均值更高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：我们发现半导体、媒体娱乐、电信服务压力更大；零售和交通运输也值得关注资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部（偏红则表示压力更高）前景展望：衰退压力下美股盈利或继续下调，预计2023年-5%；市场欲扬或需先抑，二季度承受分子端压力考虑到当前美国全线的融资成本都已经超过投资回报率（例如投资级债券实际收益率11月超过实际GDP同比增速342bp；3m10s利差当前倒挂75bp；高收益债利率一度逼近10%，仅低于标普500 ROIC 265bp；30年期房贷利率一度接近7%），因此逐步走向衰退可能是大概率事件。根据3m10s利差倒挂历史经验，衰退压力可能在明年一二季度。不过，通过复盘1920年以来18轮衰退经验，深度衰退一般是由高杠杆、过紧的货币政策、或者外部冲击这三个原因造成（《复盘美国历次衰退的历史经验》），因此只要美联储能够在一季度停止加息，融资成本对投资回报率的挤压就不至于很明显，也就不至于造成非常深度的衰退（回顾历史经验，3m10s平均倒挂幅度150bp）。这一背景下，美股盈利大概率继续回落，但调整幅度不至于很大。当前我们预计2023年盈利增速或降至-5.5%，较当前市场预期的5.3%仍有下行空间。图表：投资级债券实际收益率 – 实际GDP同比增速利差10月突破阈值，11月末达342bp资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：3m10s利差于11月初开始倒挂，当前已倒挂~75bp资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：当前美国高收益债收益率8.4%，与美股ROIC利差约265bp资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：当前30年期及15年期抵押贷款利率分别达6.5%和5.8%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：当前市场一致预期标普500指数2023年盈利增速5.7%，2024年9.5%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部现在仍不便宜的估值叠加明年一二季度衰退压力增加，可能使美股欲扬先抑。当前标普500 12个月动态P/E为17.7倍，高于1990年以来16.2倍的历史均值。当前紧缩退坡和美债利率上行风险消除给美股提供了利率和风险偏好支撑。但明年二季度衰退压力增加下可能无法立刻得到分母端的补偿，市场波动可能倒逼出宽松预期后，美债利率的快速回落可能逐步给成长股带来更大配置时机（《推演美联储政策与资产轮动的三个阶段》）。假设股权风险溢价升至9月末低点对应的2.7%和~3.8%的10年美债利率，标普500合理估值为~15倍。我们基于增长和流动性测算的合理估值也大体相当（48%的ISM制造业PMI与~3.8%的10年美债利率对应合理估值14.5~15倍），隐含支撑位较当前低10~15%。但我们预计年底点位比当前高~5%（《海外市场2023年展望：欲扬或需先抑》。）图表：标普500指数12个月动态估值17.7倍，高于1990年以来均值资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：标普500指数隐含股权风险溢价已回落至2.2%的相对低位资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：标普500指数盈利调情绪自今年6月中旬转负后持续回落资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：明年二季度市场波动可能倒逼出宽松预期后，美债利率的快速回落可能逐步给成长股带来更大配置时机资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：当前标普500指数隐含支撑位较当前低10~15%。但我们预计年底点位比当前高~5%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部（偏红则表示压力更高）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964327074,"gmtCreate":1670083783698,"gmtModify":1676538300126,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964327074","repostId":"2288911500","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288911500","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670038838,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288911500?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-03 11:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Report: U.S. court officially drops Meng Wanzhou's \"bank fraud\" and other charges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288911500","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"书面裁决表示：“兹命令撤销上述对被告孟晚舟提出的第三次替代起诉，且不能重新提起诉讼。”路透社称，美国方面正式结束了这一导致中美关系紧张的案件。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The written ruling said: \"It is hereby ordered that the aforementioned third alternative indictment against the defendant Meng Wanzhou be dropped and that the lawsuit cannot be refiled.\" Reuters said that the United States officially ended the case that caused tensions between China and the United States. According to Reuters, after the request of the US prosecutor, the US court officially dropped the charges of \"bank fraud\" against Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Huawei, on the 2nd local time, and could not file a new lawsuit.</p><p>According to reports, U.S. District Judge Ann Donnelly dropped the charges of \"bank fraud\" against Meng Wanzhou on the 2nd local time. Reuters said that the United States officially ended this case that caused tension between China and the United States.</p><p>According to the Canadian News Agency, Ann Donnelly said in a written ruling: \"The above-mentioned third alternative prosecution against the defendant Meng Wanzhou is hereby ordered to be withdrawn, and the lawsuit cannot be re-filed.\"</p><p>According to Agence France-Presse, the U.S. Department of Justice also said on the 2nd that Meng Wanzhou had completed the \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA) and had not violated it within the term of the agreement. Therefore, the charges have been completely dropped and the lawsuit cannot be re-filed.</p><p>In September 2021, Meng Wanzhou reached a \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA) with the US Department of Justice. According to the agreement, the United States agreed to drop the charges against Meng Wanzhou on December 1, 2022, four years after the date she was arrested in Canada because of a US arrest warrant.</p><p>December 1, local time, new york<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRKR\">Brooke</a>Lin District Attorney Carolyn Pokorny sent a letter to Ann Donnelly, saying that since there is no information that Meng Wanzhou violated the \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA), \"I would like to ask (the court) to withdraw the defendant Meng Wanzhou's third alternative prosecution in this case.\"</p><p>According to previous reports, on December 1, 2018, when Meng Wanzhou was transiting through Vancouver Airport in Canada, she was detained by the Canadian government for no reason on the grounds of \"at the request of the United States\". The United States accused her of misleading HSBC about Huawei's Iranian business, which started a long judicial and diplomatic game between China and the United States and Canada. Meng Wanzhou was also illegally detained by Canada for 1,028 days.</p><p>Thanks to the unremitting efforts of all parties, Meng Wanzhou left Canada by chartered flight on September 25, 2021 and successfully returned to her motherland.</p><p>Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying emphasized in September 2021 that China's position on the Meng Wanzhou incident is consistent and clear. Facts have already fully proved that this is a political persecution against Chinese citizens, with the purpose of suppressing Chinese high-tech enterprises. The allegations of so-called \"fraud\" against Ms. Meng Wanzhou are purely fabricated. What the United States and Canada have done is typical arbitrary detention.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Report: U.S. court officially drops Meng Wanzhou's \"bank fraud\" and other charges</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReport: U.S. court officially drops Meng Wanzhou's \"bank fraud\" and other charges\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-03 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The written ruling said: \"It is hereby ordered that the aforementioned third alternative indictment against the defendant Meng Wanzhou be dropped and that the lawsuit cannot be refiled.\" Reuters said that the United States officially ended the case that caused tensions between China and the United States. According to Reuters, after the request of the US prosecutor, the US court officially dropped the charges of \"bank fraud\" against Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Huawei, on the 2nd local time, and could not file a new lawsuit.</p><p>According to reports, U.S. District Judge Ann Donnelly dropped the charges of \"bank fraud\" against Meng Wanzhou on the 2nd local time. Reuters said that the United States officially ended this case that caused tension between China and the United States.</p><p>According to the Canadian News Agency, Ann Donnelly said in a written ruling: \"The above-mentioned third alternative prosecution against the defendant Meng Wanzhou is hereby ordered to be withdrawn, and the lawsuit cannot be re-filed.\"</p><p>According to Agence France-Presse, the U.S. Department of Justice also said on the 2nd that Meng Wanzhou had completed the \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA) and had not violated it within the term of the agreement. Therefore, the charges have been completely dropped and the lawsuit cannot be re-filed.</p><p>In September 2021, Meng Wanzhou reached a \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA) with the US Department of Justice. According to the agreement, the United States agreed to drop the charges against Meng Wanzhou on December 1, 2022, four years after the date she was arrested in Canada because of a US arrest warrant.</p><p>December 1, local time, new york<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRKR\">Brooke</a>Lin District Attorney Carolyn Pokorny sent a letter to Ann Donnelly, saying that since there is no information that Meng Wanzhou violated the \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA), \"I would like to ask (the court) to withdraw the defendant Meng Wanzhou's third alternative prosecution in this case.\"</p><p>According to previous reports, on December 1, 2018, when Meng Wanzhou was transiting through Vancouver Airport in Canada, she was detained by the Canadian government for no reason on the grounds of \"at the request of the United States\". The United States accused her of misleading HSBC about Huawei's Iranian business, which started a long judicial and diplomatic game between China and the United States and Canada. Meng Wanzhou was also illegally detained by Canada for 1,028 days.</p><p>Thanks to the unremitting efforts of all parties, Meng Wanzhou left Canada by chartered flight on September 25, 2021 and successfully returned to her motherland.</p><p>Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying emphasized in September 2021 that China's position on the Meng Wanzhou incident is consistent and clear. Facts have already fully proved that this is a political persecution against Chinese citizens, with the purpose of suppressing Chinese high-tech enterprises. The allegations of so-called \"fraud\" against Ms. Meng Wanzhou are purely fabricated. What the United States and Canada have done is typical arbitrary detention.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676565\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e0b6d1912791f75d7ff43e981e7e05","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676565","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288911500","content_text":"书面裁决表示：“兹命令撤销上述对被告孟晚舟提出的第三次替代起诉，且不能重新提起诉讼。”路透社称，美国方面正式结束了这一导致中美关系紧张的案件。据路透社报道，在美国检方提出请求后，美国法院当地时间2日正式撤销对华为公司首席财务官孟晚舟的“银行欺诈”等罪名的指控，且不能重新提起诉讼。据报道，美国地区法官安·唐纳利当地时间2日撤销了对孟晚舟的“银行欺诈”等罪名的指控。路透社称，美国方面正式结束了这一导致中美关系紧张的案件。另据加拿大通讯社报道，安·唐纳利在一份书面裁决中表示：“兹命令撤销上述对被告孟晚舟提出的第三次替代起诉，且不能重新提起诉讼。”据法新社报道，美国司法部2日也表示，孟晚舟已完成“暂缓起诉协议”(DPA)且在协议期限内未有违反行为，因此指控已完全撤销，且不能重新提起诉讼。2021年9月，孟晚舟与美国司法部达成“暂缓起诉协议”(DPA)。根据该协议，美方同意在2022年12月1日，也就是孟晚舟因为美国的逮捕令而在加拿大被捕之日的4年后，撤销对她的指控。当地时间12月1日，纽约布鲁克林地区联邦检察官卡洛琳·波科尔尼致信安·唐纳利，称由于没有孟晚舟违反“暂缓起诉协议”(DPA)的信息，“谨提请(法院)撤销本案中对被告孟晚舟的第三次替代起诉”。据此前报道，2018年12月1日，孟晚舟途经加拿大温哥华机场转机时，被加拿大政府以“应美方要求”为由无端拘押，美国指控她在华为的伊朗业务问题上误导汇丰银行，由此开启了中国与美加两国漫长的司法与外交博弈，孟晚舟也被加拿大非法拘押长达1028天。经各方不懈努力，2021年9月25日，孟晚舟乘坐包机离开加拿大，顺利回到祖国。中国外交部发言人华春莹2021年9月曾强调：中方在孟晚舟事件上立场是一贯的、明确的。事实早已充分证明，这是一起针对中国公民的政治迫害事件，目的是打压中国的高技术企业。对孟晚舟女士所谓“欺诈”的指控纯属捏造。美国、加拿大所作所为是典型的任意拘押。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964324236,"gmtCreate":1670083732325,"gmtModify":1676538300117,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶] ","listText":"[惊讶] ","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964324236","repostId":"2288916102","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288916102","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1670046777,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288916102?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-03 13:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"What's the situation? Billionaire dies in plane crash! Three currency bosses have died mysteriously","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288916102","media":"券商中国","summary":"全球“币圈”的离奇事件不断。报道称，塔兰是机上唯一一名乘客，他与机上35岁的法国飞行员均遇难。目前，事故原因仍在调查中。更为神秘的是，原本有一名旅客计划搭乘这架直升机前往摩纳哥，但其在起飞前的最后一刻取消了这趟行程，目前暂不清楚该名旅客的具体信息。近一个多月来，死亡阴影似乎笼罩在加密货币市场，在塔兰之前，已有2位币圈大佬意外离世。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Bizarre events in the global \"currency circle\" continue.</p><p>Recently, the helicopter carrying Vyacheslav Taran, a Russian currency magnate and billionaire, crashed on the border between France and Italy, and Taran died unfortunately. Before Taran, two bigwigs in the currency circle had died mysteriously. Kurland, the co-founder of Amber Group, a global virtual asset service provider, died in his sleep on November 23, local time, at the age of 30; Musegian, co-founder of MakerDAO, an American cryptocurrency lending platform, drowned on October 28, local time, at the age of 29.</p><p><b>At the same time, the cryptocurrency market is not quiet. Following the explosion of FTX, the world's second largest cryptocurrency investment platform, the virtual currency lending platform BlockFi also suddenly filed for bankruptcy. Affected by this news, the price of Bitcoin once fell to US $16,000, and the latest price (US $17,100) fell by 75% compared with the historical high. On December 1, the \"godfather of emerging markets\" Mark Mobius warned that Bitcoin will continue to plummet in 2023, or fall below $10,000.</b></p><p>A super storm is also brewing in the global energy market. From December 5, the ban on Russian crude oil by the European Union and the United States will officially take effect, and traders have already felt the tense atmosphere. Shipbrokers said price negotiations currently underway show tanker charges from the Baltic Sea to India will reach $15 million after the sanctions order comes into effect, compared with the previous rate of $9 million, a potential increase of up to 66.7%.</p><p>Russian billionaire died in plane crash</p><p>According to the British \"Daily Mail\" and other foreign media reports, recently, the helicopter of 53-year-old Russian billionaire Vyacheslav Taran crashed at the border between France and Italy after taking off from Switzerland, and Taran died unfortunately.</p><p><b>According to the report, Taran was the only passenger on board, and he and the 35-year-old French pilot on board were both killed. At present, the cause of the accident is still under investigation. It is understood that the Russian Embassy in France has confirmed Taran's death.</b></p><p>At the same time, Libertex Group also issued a statement saying that founder Taran died when his helicopter crashed on his way to Monaco.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that when the plane crashed, the local weather was good, the pilots were experienced, and the authorities did not point out the problem of improper operation of the helicopter.</b></p><p>What's even more mysterious is that a passenger originally planned to take this helicopter to Monaco, but he canceled the trip at the last moment before takeoff. At present, the specific information of this passenger is unclear.</p><p>According to the report, Taran is the latest entrepreneur in the cryptocurrency field to die unexpectedly, and another Russian super-rich man who died mysteriously this year.</p><p>According to public information, Taran was born in Russia. In the past few years, he has been living in Monaco and enjoys a high reputation in the local financial industry. He founded the Forex foreign exchange trading platform \"Forex Club\" in Russia in 1997. In 2018, the platform was acquired by Russia<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>After the license was removed, it continued to operate in more than 100 other countries. The Libertex trading platform is part of the Forex Club Group, which offers a wide range of financial products, including cryptocurrency trading.</p><p>It is reported that Taran once made millions of dollars by involving Russian citizens in currency speculation and assuring them that they could earn the maximum return with the lowest investment, causing a large number of Russian investors to lose their money.</p><p>Therefore, some analysts believe that this may lead to many Russians being dissatisfied with it. The Russian central bank reportedly revoked the Forex Club's license in 2018 because Taran's subsidiary led customers to offshore companies.</p><p>In the past month or so, the shadow of death seems to be hanging over the cryptocurrency market. Before Taran, two currency bosses had passed away unexpectedly.</p><p>Recently, Amber Group, a global virtual asset service provider, announced that the company's co-founder Tiantian Kullander died in his sleep on November 23, local time, at the age of 30.</p><p>In addition, according to local police confirmation, Nikolai Mushegian, co-founder of MakerDAO, an American cryptocurrency lending platform, was found drowned on October 28, local time, at the age of 29 at the beach of Condado, Puerto Rico, USA. MakerDAO was launched on the Ethereum blockchain in 2017 and issued the first decentralized stablecoin DAI on Ethereum.</p><p>The collapsing currency circle</p><p>At the same time, the cryptocurrency market is not quiet.</p><p>At present, the crisis in the \"currency circle\" continues to ferment. Following the explosion of FTX, the world's second largest cryptocurrency investment platform, the virtual currency lending platform BlockFi also suddenly filed for bankruptcy. Affected by this news, Bitcoin prices fell sharply, once falling to around US $16,000, and then rebounded slightly. The latest price was US $17,113, a cumulative drop of as much as 75% compared with the historical high of US $69,000 in November 2021. The total market value of global cryptocurrencies has shrunk from US $3 trillion in November last year to approximately US $900 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2564642f574f0ab352fa11ce378111\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"888\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As the \"belief in the currency circle\", Bitcoin also suffered a crash, which undoubtedly severely damaged the confidence of the cryptocurrency market. The \"godfather of emerging markets\" even issued a warning that Bitcoin will continue to plummet in 2023.</p><p>On December 1, Mark Mobius, co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners, said in an interview with the media that the price of Bitcoin once fell below the technical support level of $17,000. He predicted that Bitcoin will plummet by 40% in 2023 and will fall below 10,000 dollars.</p><p>According to public information, Mark Mobius established Mobius Capital Partners in 2018. Prior to that, he served as the executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, was known as the \"godfather of emerging markets\", and successfully predicted that Bitcoin would fall below this year. $20,000.</p><p>Mobius said in a media interview that although he expects the Bitcoin to fluctuate around $17,000 in the short term, interest rates will continue to rise with further rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and he predicts that by 2023, the Bitcoin may fall below $10,000.</p><p>The reason given is that the Federal Reserve's continued tightening monetary policy and rising interest rates make it less attractive to buy Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies as interest rates rise, because holding these cryptocurrencies does not generate interest.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy sharply and rate hike, which makes the number of dollars circulating in the market decreasing, making it more difficult for investors to participate in cryptocurrency transactions.</p><p>Mobius has warned that many crypto companies are headed for bankruptcy as crypto prices plummet and liquidity dries up.</p><p>Among them, Celsius, a lending platform that provides high interest rates for cryptocurrency investors, filed for bankruptcy protection in July this year. In addition, BlockFi also recently filed for bankruptcy due to its large exposure to FTX.</p><p>A super storm</p><p>A super storm is brewing in global energy markets.</p><p>From December 5, the ban on Russian crude oil by the European Union and the United States will officially take effect, and traders have already felt the tense atmosphere.</p><p><b>According to shipbrokers, ongoing price negotiations show that tanker charges from the Baltic Sea to India will reach US $15 million, or US $20 per barrel, after the sanctions order takes effect. The previous freight rate was US $9 million, with a potential increase of 66.7%.</b></p><p>The surge in transportation costs reflects the severe challenges faced by Russian crude oil suppliers before the deadline, when top tanker owners from European countries such as Greece will stop providing shipping and other services for crude oil produced in Russia.</p><p>Another focus of current market attention is the price ceiling set by the G7 and the European Union on Russian oil. According to the sanctions policy, as long as the trading price of Russian oil is lower than the upper limit, it will not be affected by EU sanctions. According to the latest reports from multiple media, the European Commission, the executive body of the European Union, has proposed to 27 member states to set the price limit of Russian oil at US $60/barrel.</p><p>If the EU and G7 member states can reach an agreement, this price restriction measure will also be implemented together when the latest EU sanctions on Rosneft take effect on December 5.</p><p>However, it is worth mentioning that Russia has a very tough attitude towards this. It has already announced that it will not sell any oil and natural gas to countries involved in imposing price caps on Russian oil.</p><p>Prior to this, the EU was frantically importing Russian LNG. According to the British \"Financial Times\" report, in the first 10 months of 2022, Russia's LNG supply to European countries reached a record 17.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 42%; The cost is as high as 12.5 billion euros (about 92.5 billion yuan), five times that of the same period last year and a record high.</p><p>As the embargo takes effect approaches, some buyers and sellers of Russian crude oil have set their sights on the \"dark fleet\".</p><p>The \"dark fleet\" refers to oil tankers held by unidentified shipowners who are willing to continue transporting Russian oil despite the threat of sanctions. The \"dark fleet\" is mostly composed of older ships, many of which have a track record of dealing with Western sanctioned countries such as Iran.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's the situation? Billionaire dies in plane crash! Three currency bosses have died mysteriously</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's the situation? Billionaire dies in plane crash! Three currency bosses have died mysteriously\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-03 13:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Bizarre events in the global \"currency circle\" continue.</p><p>Recently, the helicopter carrying Vyacheslav Taran, a Russian currency magnate and billionaire, crashed on the border between France and Italy, and Taran died unfortunately. Before Taran, two bigwigs in the currency circle had died mysteriously. Kurland, the co-founder of Amber Group, a global virtual asset service provider, died in his sleep on November 23, local time, at the age of 30; Musegian, co-founder of MakerDAO, an American cryptocurrency lending platform, drowned on October 28, local time, at the age of 29.</p><p><b>At the same time, the cryptocurrency market is not quiet. Following the explosion of FTX, the world's second largest cryptocurrency investment platform, the virtual currency lending platform BlockFi also suddenly filed for bankruptcy. Affected by this news, the price of Bitcoin once fell to US $16,000, and the latest price (US $17,100) fell by 75% compared with the historical high. On December 1, the \"godfather of emerging markets\" Mark Mobius warned that Bitcoin will continue to plummet in 2023, or fall below $10,000.</b></p><p>A super storm is also brewing in the global energy market. From December 5, the ban on Russian crude oil by the European Union and the United States will officially take effect, and traders have already felt the tense atmosphere. Shipbrokers said price negotiations currently underway show tanker charges from the Baltic Sea to India will reach $15 million after the sanctions order comes into effect, compared with the previous rate of $9 million, a potential increase of up to 66.7%.</p><p>Russian billionaire died in plane crash</p><p>According to the British \"Daily Mail\" and other foreign media reports, recently, the helicopter of 53-year-old Russian billionaire Vyacheslav Taran crashed at the border between France and Italy after taking off from Switzerland, and Taran died unfortunately.</p><p><b>According to the report, Taran was the only passenger on board, and he and the 35-year-old French pilot on board were both killed. At present, the cause of the accident is still under investigation. It is understood that the Russian Embassy in France has confirmed Taran's death.</b></p><p>At the same time, Libertex Group also issued a statement saying that founder Taran died when his helicopter crashed on his way to Monaco.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that when the plane crashed, the local weather was good, the pilots were experienced, and the authorities did not point out the problem of improper operation of the helicopter.</b></p><p>What's even more mysterious is that a passenger originally planned to take this helicopter to Monaco, but he canceled the trip at the last moment before takeoff. At present, the specific information of this passenger is unclear.</p><p>According to the report, Taran is the latest entrepreneur in the cryptocurrency field to die unexpectedly, and another Russian super-rich man who died mysteriously this year.</p><p>According to public information, Taran was born in Russia. In the past few years, he has been living in Monaco and enjoys a high reputation in the local financial industry. He founded the Forex foreign exchange trading platform \"Forex Club\" in Russia in 1997. In 2018, the platform was acquired by Russia<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>After the license was removed, it continued to operate in more than 100 other countries. The Libertex trading platform is part of the Forex Club Group, which offers a wide range of financial products, including cryptocurrency trading.</p><p>It is reported that Taran once made millions of dollars by involving Russian citizens in currency speculation and assuring them that they could earn the maximum return with the lowest investment, causing a large number of Russian investors to lose their money.</p><p>Therefore, some analysts believe that this may lead to many Russians being dissatisfied with it. The Russian central bank reportedly revoked the Forex Club's license in 2018 because Taran's subsidiary led customers to offshore companies.</p><p>In the past month or so, the shadow of death seems to be hanging over the cryptocurrency market. Before Taran, two currency bosses had passed away unexpectedly.</p><p>Recently, Amber Group, a global virtual asset service provider, announced that the company's co-founder Tiantian Kullander died in his sleep on November 23, local time, at the age of 30.</p><p>In addition, according to local police confirmation, Nikolai Mushegian, co-founder of MakerDAO, an American cryptocurrency lending platform, was found drowned on October 28, local time, at the age of 29 at the beach of Condado, Puerto Rico, USA. MakerDAO was launched on the Ethereum blockchain in 2017 and issued the first decentralized stablecoin DAI on Ethereum.</p><p>The collapsing currency circle</p><p>At the same time, the cryptocurrency market is not quiet.</p><p>At present, the crisis in the \"currency circle\" continues to ferment. Following the explosion of FTX, the world's second largest cryptocurrency investment platform, the virtual currency lending platform BlockFi also suddenly filed for bankruptcy. Affected by this news, Bitcoin prices fell sharply, once falling to around US $16,000, and then rebounded slightly. The latest price was US $17,113, a cumulative drop of as much as 75% compared with the historical high of US $69,000 in November 2021. The total market value of global cryptocurrencies has shrunk from US $3 trillion in November last year to approximately US $900 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2564642f574f0ab352fa11ce378111\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"888\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As the \"belief in the currency circle\", Bitcoin also suffered a crash, which undoubtedly severely damaged the confidence of the cryptocurrency market. The \"godfather of emerging markets\" even issued a warning that Bitcoin will continue to plummet in 2023.</p><p>On December 1, Mark Mobius, co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners, said in an interview with the media that the price of Bitcoin once fell below the technical support level of $17,000. He predicted that Bitcoin will plummet by 40% in 2023 and will fall below 10,000 dollars.</p><p>According to public information, Mark Mobius established Mobius Capital Partners in 2018. Prior to that, he served as the executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, was known as the \"godfather of emerging markets\", and successfully predicted that Bitcoin would fall below this year. $20,000.</p><p>Mobius said in a media interview that although he expects the Bitcoin to fluctuate around $17,000 in the short term, interest rates will continue to rise with further rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and he predicts that by 2023, the Bitcoin may fall below $10,000.</p><p>The reason given is that the Federal Reserve's continued tightening monetary policy and rising interest rates make it less attractive to buy Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies as interest rates rise, because holding these cryptocurrencies does not generate interest.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy sharply and rate hike, which makes the number of dollars circulating in the market decreasing, making it more difficult for investors to participate in cryptocurrency transactions.</p><p>Mobius has warned that many crypto companies are headed for bankruptcy as crypto prices plummet and liquidity dries up.</p><p>Among them, Celsius, a lending platform that provides high interest rates for cryptocurrency investors, filed for bankruptcy protection in July this year. In addition, BlockFi also recently filed for bankruptcy due to its large exposure to FTX.</p><p>A super storm</p><p>A super storm is brewing in global energy markets.</p><p>From December 5, the ban on Russian crude oil by the European Union and the United States will officially take effect, and traders have already felt the tense atmosphere.</p><p><b>According to shipbrokers, ongoing price negotiations show that tanker charges from the Baltic Sea to India will reach US $15 million, or US $20 per barrel, after the sanctions order takes effect. The previous freight rate was US $9 million, with a potential increase of 66.7%.</b></p><p>The surge in transportation costs reflects the severe challenges faced by Russian crude oil suppliers before the deadline, when top tanker owners from European countries such as Greece will stop providing shipping and other services for crude oil produced in Russia.</p><p>Another focus of current market attention is the price ceiling set by the G7 and the European Union on Russian oil. According to the sanctions policy, as long as the trading price of Russian oil is lower than the upper limit, it will not be affected by EU sanctions. According to the latest reports from multiple media, the European Commission, the executive body of the European Union, has proposed to 27 member states to set the price limit of Russian oil at US $60/barrel.</p><p>If the EU and G7 member states can reach an agreement, this price restriction measure will also be implemented together when the latest EU sanctions on Rosneft take effect on December 5.</p><p>However, it is worth mentioning that Russia has a very tough attitude towards this. It has already announced that it will not sell any oil and natural gas to countries involved in imposing price caps on Russian oil.</p><p>Prior to this, the EU was frantically importing Russian LNG. According to the British \"Financial Times\" report, in the first 10 months of 2022, Russia's LNG supply to European countries reached a record 17.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 42%; The cost is as high as 12.5 billion euros (about 92.5 billion yuan), five times that of the same period last year and a record high.</p><p>As the embargo takes effect approaches, some buyers and sellers of Russian crude oil have set their sights on the \"dark fleet\".</p><p>The \"dark fleet\" refers to oil tankers held by unidentified shipowners who are willing to continue transporting Russian oil despite the threat of sanctions. The \"dark fleet\" is mostly composed of older ships, many of which have a track record of dealing with Western sanctioned countries such as Iran.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962be253ee7459c393769e9105cb1429","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288916102","content_text":"全球“币圈”的离奇事件不断。近日，俄罗斯币圈大佬、亿万富翁维亚切斯拉夫·塔兰 (Vyacheslav Taran)乘坐的直升机在法国和意大利边境处坠毁，塔兰不幸身亡。而在塔兰之前，已有2位币圈大佬离奇去世，分别是全球虚拟资产服务提供商Amber Group联合创始人库兰德于当地时间11月23日在睡梦中去世，年仅30岁；美国加密货币借贷平台MakerDAO联合创始人穆谢吉安于当地时间10月28日溺水身亡，年仅29岁。与此同时，加密货币市场也不平静。继全球第二大加密货币投资平台FTX爆雷后，虚拟货币贷款平台BlockFi也突然申请破产。受此消息影响，比特币价格一度跌至1.6万美元，最新价格（1.71万美元）相较于历史高位累计跌幅达75%。12月1日，“新兴市场教父”Mark Mobius警告称，2023年比特币将继续暴跌，或将跌破1万美元。全球能源市场的一场超级风暴也正在酝酿。12月5日起，欧盟、美国对俄罗斯原油的禁令将正式生效，贸易商已经感受到了紧张氛围。船舶经纪商表示，目前正在进行的价格谈判显示，在制裁令生效后，从波罗的海至印度的油轮费用将达到1500万美元，而之前的运价为900万美元，潜在涨幅高达66.7%。俄罗斯亿万富翁，坠机身亡据英国《每日邮报》等多家外媒报道，近日，53岁的俄罗斯亿万富翁维亚切斯拉夫·塔兰 (Vyacheslav Taran)乘坐的直升机从瑞士起飞后在法国和意大利边境处坠毁，塔兰不幸身亡。报道称，塔兰是机上唯一一名乘客，他与机上35岁的法国飞行员均遇难。目前，事故原因仍在调查中。据了解，俄罗斯驻法国大使馆已经证实了塔兰的死讯。同时，Libertex集团也发布声明称，创始人塔兰在前往摩纳哥的途中，因搭乘的直升机坠毁而身亡。值得一提的是，飞机失事时，当地天气良好、飞行员经验丰富、当局亦未指出直升机存在操作不当的问题。更为神秘的是，原本有一名旅客计划搭乘这架直升机前往摩纳哥，但其在起飞前的最后一刻取消了这趟行程，目前暂不清楚该名旅客的具体信息。报道称，塔兰是最新一位意外去世的加密货币领域企业家，也是今年以来又一位神秘离世的俄罗斯超级富豪。据公开资料显示，塔兰出生于俄罗斯，过去几年，其一直居住在摩纳哥，且在当地金融行业享有盛誉。他于1997年在俄罗斯创立了福瑞斯外汇交易平台“Forex Club”，2018年该平台被俄罗斯中央银行取消许可证后，继续在其他100多个国家开展业务。Libertex交易平台隶属于Forex Club Group，该平台提供广泛的金融产品，包括加密货币交易。有报道称，塔兰曾通过让俄罗斯公民参与货币投机活动，并向其保证能以最低投入赚取最大回报，大赚了数百万美元，令大量俄罗斯投资者血本无归。因此，有分析认为，这可能导致有很多俄罗斯人对其不满。据报道，因塔兰旗下子公司将客户引至离岸公司，俄罗斯央行已于2018年撤销了Forex Club的执照。近一个多月来，死亡阴影似乎笼罩在加密货币市场，在塔兰之前，已有2位币圈大佬意外离世。近日，全球虚拟资产服务提供商Amber Group发布公告称，公司联合创始人库兰德（Tiantian Kullander）于当地时间11月23日在睡梦中去世，年仅30岁。另外，据当地警方确认，美国加密货币借贷平台MakerDAO联合创始人穆谢吉安（Nikolai Mushegian）于当地时间10月28日在美国波多黎各Condado海滩边被发现溺水身亡，年仅29岁。MakerDAO于2017年在以太坊(Ethereum)区块链上推出，并在以太坊发行了首个去中心化稳定币DAI。崩盘的币圈与此同时，加密货币市场也不平静。当前，“币圈”危机仍在继续发酵。继全球第二大加密货币投资平台FTX爆雷后，虚拟货币贷款平台BlockFi也突然申请破产。受此消息影响，比特币价格应声大跌，一度跌至1.6万美元左右，随后稍有回升，最新价格为17113美元，相较于2021年11月的历史高位6.9万美元，累计跌幅高达75%。全球加密货币总市值由去年11月的3万亿美元缩水至大约9000亿美元。作为“币圈信仰”的比特币也遭遇崩盘，这无疑重创加密货币市场信心，“新兴市场教父”甚至发出警告，2023年比特币将继续暴跌。12月1日，Mobius Capital Partners的联合创始人Mark Mobius在接受媒体采访时称，比特币的价格一度跌破17000美元的技术支撑位，他预测2023年比特币还将暴跌40%，将跌破1万美元。公开资料显示，Mark Mobius于2018年成立了Mobius Capital Partners，在此之前，他曾担任邓普顿新兴市场集团的执行主席，被誉为“新兴市场教父”，并在今年成功预测比特币将跌破2万美元。Mobius在媒体采访中表示，虽然他预计比特币短期内将在17000美元附近上下波动，但随着美联储的进一步加息，利率将不断上涨，他预测到2023年，比特币可能会跌破1万美元。其给出的理由是，美联储的持续紧缩的货币政策和不断上涨的利率，随着利率上升，购买比特币或其他加密货币的吸引力会降低，因为持有这些加密货币并不会产生利息。另外，美联储持续大幅加息收紧货币政策，使得市场流通的美元正在减少，投资者变得更难参与加密货币的交易。Mobius警告称，随着加密货币价格暴跌和流动性枯竭，许多加密货币公司将走向破产。其中，Celsius是为加密货币投资者提供高利率的借贷平台，其于今年7月份申请了破产保护。另外，BlockFi因持有FTX很大的风险敞口，也于最近申请了破产。一场超级风暴全球能源市场的一场超级风暴正在酝酿。12月5日起，欧盟、美国对俄罗斯原油的禁令将正式生效，贸易商已经感受到了紧张氛围。据船舶经纪商表示，目前正在进行的价格谈判显示，在制裁令生效后，从波罗的海至印度的油轮费用将达到1500万美元，即20美元/桶。而之前的运价为900万美元，潜在涨幅高达66.7%。运输成本飙升反映出，俄罗斯原油供应商在最后截止日前所面临的严峻挑战，届时来自希腊等欧洲国家的顶级油轮所有者，将停止为俄罗斯生产的原油提供航运和其他服务。目前市场关注的另一个焦点是，G7和欧盟对俄油制定的价格上限。据制裁政策显示，只要俄油的交易价格低于上限，就可以不受欧盟制裁影响。据多家媒体的最新报道，欧盟执行机构欧盟委员会已经向27个成员国提议，将俄油限价定在60美元/桶。如果欧盟和G7成员国能够达成一致，这项价格限制措施，也将在12月5日欧盟俄油最新制裁生效时一同落地。但值得一提的是，俄罗斯方面对此态度非常强硬，其早已宣布，不会向参与对俄油实施价格上限的国家出售任何石油和天然气。而在此之前，欧盟正在疯狂进口俄罗斯的液化天然气，据英国《金融时报》报道，2022年前10个月，俄罗斯对欧洲国家的液化天然气供应量达到创纪录的178亿立方米，同比增长42%；耗资高达125亿欧元(约合人民币925亿元)，是去年同期的五倍，亦创出历史最高纪录。随着禁运生效时点临近，部分俄罗斯原油的买卖双方，将目光投向了“黑暗船队”。“黑暗船队”是指，由未透露身份的船东持有的油轮，尽管面临制裁威胁，船东仍愿意继续运输俄油。而“黑暗船队”大多由较老的船只组成，其中许多有着与伊朗等受西方制裁国家打交道的记录。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"835174":1,"835184":1,"835185":1,"835305":1,"835368":1,"835508":1,"835640":1,"835670":1,"870436":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2057,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965216858,"gmtCreate":1669957690275,"gmtModify":1676538278430,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965216858","repostId":"1125738659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125738659","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"博闻雅识，非凡之客。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"市界","id":"1019100707","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa5576660d42f195013ced4567a7f3"},"pubTimestamp":1669950272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125738659?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 11:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Trillions of apples, \"high in debt\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125738659","media":"市界","summary":"除了iPhone，库克精准的“刀法”很大程度也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。于是一边对iPh","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In addition to the iPhone, Cook's precise \"knife skills\" are also largely reflected in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>In the balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy at the same time. As a result, while steadily pushing up the market value, it also needs to face an increasingly higher debt ratio. Therefore, while applying a more precise \"knife technique\" to the iPhone, looking for the \"iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands. Apple can be said to be in constant trouble recently.</p><p>On November 29, after bombarding Apple, Musk sent out a poll on his personal social media about \"Apple should announce all censorship measures that affect other customers.\" 85% of the nearly 2.23 million votes chose \"Yes\".</p><p>Prior to this, Musk questioned Apple's up to 30% commission on the App Store, and said that Apple had threatened to remove the social media app it just acquired from the App Store.</p><p>The short-lived farce ended with Cook taking Musk to visit Apple headquarters and reaching a settlement. But soon Facebook founder Zuckerberg and streaming music service Spotify CEO Daniel Eck took over the baton of Musk's bombardment of Apple, publicly stating that Apple's App Store deprives consumers of choice and unreasonably obtains most of the ecosystem's profits.</p><p>But this is obviously not the first time Apple has faced similar accusations. Back to the present, Apple's more real and close \"anxiety\" comes from the underappreciated iPhone 14 series, while the more far-reaching \"anxiety\" is hidden in the secret. Between financial report data.</p><p><b>High debt ratio</b></p><p>As a global technology giant with a total market value of more than 2 trillion US dollars, total assets of 352.8 billion US dollars, annual revenue of 394.3 billion US dollars, and net profit of 99.8 billion US dollars, Apple's debt ratio is deviating from the general perception of the public, and behind this is actually a problem related to \"tax avoidance\" and business strategy.</p><p>As of the end of September 2022, Apple's asset-liability ratio reached 85.64%, the highest level in its history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee42adcc88f7ef5b59199bd59ec576ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, on Nasdaq, where Apple is located, the average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market capitalization in fiscal year 2021 is 52.92%, of which Apple ranks second with a debt ratio of 82.03%, second only to Pepsi's 82.52%; the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYSE\">NYSE</a>The average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market value is 55.71%, of which the debt ratio reaches 92.14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It belongs to the banking sector and is not comparable to Apple, followed by a debt ratio of 65.33%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>。</p><p>Regardless of vertical or horizontal comparison, Apple's debt ratio is not low, and this indicator alone is even more radical than many domestic real estate enterprises with high leverage.</p><p>Behind the extremely high debt ratio, Apple's interest-bearing debt as of the end of September 2022 is US $120.069 billion, of which long-term term debt is US $98.959 billion and short-term term debt is US $11.128 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Apple's pockets are also quite bulging-at the same time, its book cash, equivalents, and securities totaled US $169.109 billion, of which cash was US $23.646 billion, and long-term and short-term securities were US $120.805 billion and US $24.658 billion respectively.</p><p>Specifically, the securities held by Apple include US $23.409 billion in US Treasury Bond, US $15.749 billion in non-US government bonds, and US $79.45 billion in corporate bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fca08b4a81d498dc914b55975c571e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Announcement)</p><p>So the question arises, why is Apple globally<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The shipment volume of mobile phones is the second largest, and you have a lot of cash and bonds in your account, but you still have to borrow so much money?</p><p>In fact, Apple has been trapped in the problem of \"tax avoidance\", because the U.S. tax law stipulates that if Apple's overseas income is to be repatriated to the United States, it needs to pay a 35% tax to the U.S. government (before the tax reform), but Apple has always resisted this, thinking that the excessively high tax rate is unreasonable.</p><p>The outside world's doubts about Apple's \"tax avoidance\" have existed for a long time. Apple CEO Cook once \"fought with the senator\" at the hearing, fighting back at what he thought was unreasonable in the US tax law.</p><p>But the problem has not been solved. Apple's overseas income still cannot be returned to the United States smoothly, but is collected in Ireland through a series of tax avoidance operations, and then through a series of special agreements between Apple and the Irish government, ultra-low tax rate is achieved.</p><p>Overseas money cannot be returned to the U.S. account, but after Cook took over, Apple needs to spend huge sums of money to repurchase the company's stock every year in order to manage its market value. At the same time, it has also changed from no dividends in the Jobs era to a high proportion of dividends, all of which require large sums of cash.</p><p>According to market statistics, from 2013 to 2022, Apple spent a total of US $553.1 billion on stock repurchases, and the total Dividend expenditure shown in the cash flow statement since 2011 has reached US $131.9 billion.</p><p>This has led Apple to keep a large amount of cash and securities on its books, while constantly borrowing money for repurchases and dividends. Its interest-bearing debt increased significantly from 2013 to 2017, eventually forming the current situation of \"big deposits and big loans\".</p><p>But this is not the root cause of Apple's rising debt ratio. Logically, the asset-liability ratio = total liabilities/total assets, and the asset-liability ratio will only rise when the growth rate of total liabilities is greater than the increase of total assets, so when will this happen? Simply put, it is when you spend more than you earn.</p><p>Specifically, when the debt remains at a relatively stable level, as long as Apple makes more money every year than it spends, the net assets will increase and the overall debt ratio will be controlled or even decreased.</p><p>However, comparing Apple's dividend and repurchase expenditures with the sum of annual net operating activities and investment activities, it will be found that in most years, Apple's expenditures on dividends and repurchases are greater than the net cash generated from operating activities and investment activities. This means that Apple often doesn't make enough money to spend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b304f2fe46f8c5e46b402b342684c74\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>With the continuous accumulation of this state, the growth rate of Apple's assets is far slower than the growth rate of its liabilities, and the debt ratio finally climbed to a high level of 85.5%.</p><p>In 2011, Cook officially took over the position of CEO of Apple. From 2013 to 2022, Apple's total assets have increased by US $145.755 billion, an increase of 70.41%, but its liabilities have increased by US $218.632 billion, an increase of 261.99%.</p><p>From this perspective, in addition to fully tapping the commercial value brought by the iPhone to Apple, Cook's precise \"knife skill\" is also largely reflected in Apple's balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy. As a result, while steadily pushing up its market value, it also needs to face higher and higher debt ratios.</p><p>The more urgent problem is that if you want to return to the security limit of \"earning more than spending\", Apple's current killer is still the iPhone, so while applying more precise \"knife skills\" to the iPhone, it is looking for \"The iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands.</p><p><b>The last wave of dividends for the iPhone?</b></p><p>Since the launch of the first-generation iPhone in 2007, as of the end of September 2022, global iPhone shipments have exceeded 2.3 billion units, generating approximately 10.84 trillion yuan in revenue for Apple.</p><p>According to the data released by market research organization Strategy Analytics, although the total sales of smartphones fell by 35% year-on-year during Double Eleven, the iPhone won the crown with sales of 3.5 million units. The latest data shows that in October 2022, Apple's monthly domestic market share reached a record high of 25%, and it has been the largest mobile phone brand manufacturer in China for two consecutive months.</p><p>Prior to this, the iPhone 14 series was not optimistic, and there were even a lot of complaints.</p><p>Since its release in October, reports related to the iPhone 14 have included \"iPhone 14 makes Huaqiangbei miserable\", \"iPhone 14\" harvests \"scalpers\", \"Squeezing toothpaste makes iPhone 14 suffer?\"... The fancy title almost overwhelmingly reveals the sentiment of bad-mouthing Apple's new machine, which is considered to have obvious pain points from configuration to design.</p><p>Luo Yonghao, an \"old fruit powder\", also quipped after starting a new machine: \"Apple used to be a real machine that looked better than the rendering, but in recent years, my 'American subsidiary'didn't work very well. This time is a good example. The so-called design of Dynamic Island is not as beautiful as in the promotional video. The Android camp has all come up with small and medium black spot front shots, lifting front shots, and visually perfect hidden front shots under the screen. Why do you want to do this?\"</p><p>But whether it is Dynamic Island, who is not optimistic, or Cook's \"knife skills\", although the standard version of the iPhone 14 has been broken, Cook has indeed succeeded in attracting more demand to Pro models with higher configurations and prices--In October, the iPhone 14 Pro Max and iPhone 14 Pro ranked first and second among the best-selling models in China respectively, but the standard versions of the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series have been selling higher before.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24eeada69a9d99a74544ffeee60fd8b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">Vision china</a>）</p><p>In addition, Apple is also gradually expanding its revenue territory in the ecosystem in addition to hardware products such as iPhone and Mac-its revenue from iTunes, software and services has increased from 76 billion yuan in fiscal year 2012 to 546.3 billion yuan in fiscal year 2022. billion yuan, accounting for a proportion of total revenue also increased from 7.66% to 19.81%. Referring to the gross profit margin of more than 70% of Xiaomi's Internet service business, this part of Apple's business theoretically also has a higher profit margin than hardware.</p><p>These are Apple's \"open source\" ways.</p><p>Under this line of thinking, whether it is the aversion of technology giants such as Musk and Zuckerberg to Apple's tax, or the exhaustion of the halo of the first-generation iPhone under Cook's commercial knife technique, it is actually the price that Apple needs to bear.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In a mobile phone advertisement released recently, Apple once again became the object of ridicule-a man was sitting on a wall with a shop that looked like an Apple retail store behind him. When the employee in the store asked him what he was doing, the man insinuated, \"On Samsung's side, there are foldable mobile phones and epic cameras.\" The clerk responded with \"We wait\", secretly mocking Apple for its delay in launching folding screen mobile phones.</p><p>This is not the first time that the two sides have \"confronted each other\" in advertisements. In past advertisements, Samsung has also flirted with Apple's abrupt notch screen, buried Apple's defects such as lag, frequent bugs, and non-waterproofing. It has also used plot comparisons to highlight the old generation of Apple that cannot charge and use headphones at the same time. Basically, Apple's historical defects have been criticized.</p><p>Fortunately, if you look back, most of these bugs have become history, and the innuendo in Samsung's advertisements has become a dramatic force to urge Apple to improve to some extent.</p><p>In the next few years, how to use more accurate \"knife skills\" and relatively limited micro-innovations to make the iPhone and its ecology eat the last wave of dividends in the shrinking industry of smartphones may be Cook's current consideration. One of the important issues, but at the same time, finding the \"iPhone of the next era\" outside the iPhone is also the top priority for the continuation of Apple's business empire.</p><p>The most anticipated presentations by the outside world mainly include Apple smart cars and Apple AR/VR glasses. The former has experienced 8 years of \"dystocia\" and is still far from landing, while the latter has ushered in more and more intensive reports in the near future, which is ready to come out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c0195994f3458221ed1282924f5284\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: vision china)</p><p>In fact, Apple's layout in the AR field is far-reaching than most people think-it launched the AR development platform ARKit at WWDC in 2017. Developers can use this set of tools to create augmented reality applications for iPhone and iPad, and Apple Once AR/VR is launched, most of ARKit's capabilities and corresponding applications can also be presented on new carriers.</p><p>For example, LiDAR LiDAR used in iPad and iPhone Pro has depth-of-field perception capabilities, so in addition to improving camera focusing capabilities for existing products, it is more like laying a solid foundation for the spatial ranging capabilities necessary for future AR/VR devices. For example, the iPhone currently has the function of camera recognition and search for text. If it is applied to future AR/VR devices, the space that can be displayed will be greatly released.</p><p>After WWDC in 2022, Cook once stated in an interview that the AR field is the focus of Apple's daily attention. There are already more than 1,400 ARKit apps in the App Store. He also said, \"Please continue to pay attention, you will see what we bring. product\".</p><p>Judging from the existing news, Apple's AR team has a high probability of holding two sets of solutions, one is a helmet aimed at VR, which corresponds to an immersive virtual experience, and the price may reach $2,000; The other is highly likely to be AR glasses that look closer to ordinary glasses, corresponding to a virtual experience with enhanced reality, but the launch time should be after the VR helmet product.</p><p>Against the background that the smartphone market is no longer growing, whether Apple's brewing AR/VR glasses can catch the baton that the iPhone is about to hand over may be Apple's anxiety in the next few years.</p><p>The question worth thinking about is, with Apple's debt ratio approaching 90%, how much room is left for Cook to maneuver in the future?</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Trillions of apples, \"high in debt\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTrillions of apples, \"high in debt\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1019100707\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa5576660d42f195013ced4567a7f3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">市界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-02 11:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In addition to the iPhone, Cook's precise \"knife skills\" are also largely reflected in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>In the balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy at the same time. As a result, while steadily pushing up the market value, it also needs to face an increasingly higher debt ratio. Therefore, while applying a more precise \"knife technique\" to the iPhone, looking for the \"iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands. Apple can be said to be in constant trouble recently.</p><p>On November 29, after bombarding Apple, Musk sent out a poll on his personal social media about \"Apple should announce all censorship measures that affect other customers.\" 85% of the nearly 2.23 million votes chose \"Yes\".</p><p>Prior to this, Musk questioned Apple's up to 30% commission on the App Store, and said that Apple had threatened to remove the social media app it just acquired from the App Store.</p><p>The short-lived farce ended with Cook taking Musk to visit Apple headquarters and reaching a settlement. But soon Facebook founder Zuckerberg and streaming music service Spotify CEO Daniel Eck took over the baton of Musk's bombardment of Apple, publicly stating that Apple's App Store deprives consumers of choice and unreasonably obtains most of the ecosystem's profits.</p><p>But this is obviously not the first time Apple has faced similar accusations. Back to the present, Apple's more real and close \"anxiety\" comes from the underappreciated iPhone 14 series, while the more far-reaching \"anxiety\" is hidden in the secret. Between financial report data.</p><p><b>High debt ratio</b></p><p>As a global technology giant with a total market value of more than 2 trillion US dollars, total assets of 352.8 billion US dollars, annual revenue of 394.3 billion US dollars, and net profit of 99.8 billion US dollars, Apple's debt ratio is deviating from the general perception of the public, and behind this is actually a problem related to \"tax avoidance\" and business strategy.</p><p>As of the end of September 2022, Apple's asset-liability ratio reached 85.64%, the highest level in its history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee42adcc88f7ef5b59199bd59ec576ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, on Nasdaq, where Apple is located, the average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market capitalization in fiscal year 2021 is 52.92%, of which Apple ranks second with a debt ratio of 82.03%, second only to Pepsi's 82.52%; the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYSE\">NYSE</a>The average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market value is 55.71%, of which the debt ratio reaches 92.14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It belongs to the banking sector and is not comparable to Apple, followed by a debt ratio of 65.33%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>。</p><p>Regardless of vertical or horizontal comparison, Apple's debt ratio is not low, and this indicator alone is even more radical than many domestic real estate enterprises with high leverage.</p><p>Behind the extremely high debt ratio, Apple's interest-bearing debt as of the end of September 2022 is US $120.069 billion, of which long-term term debt is US $98.959 billion and short-term term debt is US $11.128 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Apple's pockets are also quite bulging-at the same time, its book cash, equivalents, and securities totaled US $169.109 billion, of which cash was US $23.646 billion, and long-term and short-term securities were US $120.805 billion and US $24.658 billion respectively.</p><p>Specifically, the securities held by Apple include US $23.409 billion in US Treasury Bond, US $15.749 billion in non-US government bonds, and US $79.45 billion in corporate bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fca08b4a81d498dc914b55975c571e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Announcement)</p><p>So the question arises, why is Apple globally<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The shipment volume of mobile phones is the second largest, and you have a lot of cash and bonds in your account, but you still have to borrow so much money?</p><p>In fact, Apple has been trapped in the problem of \"tax avoidance\", because the U.S. tax law stipulates that if Apple's overseas income is to be repatriated to the United States, it needs to pay a 35% tax to the U.S. government (before the tax reform), but Apple has always resisted this, thinking that the excessively high tax rate is unreasonable.</p><p>The outside world's doubts about Apple's \"tax avoidance\" have existed for a long time. Apple CEO Cook once \"fought with the senator\" at the hearing, fighting back at what he thought was unreasonable in the US tax law.</p><p>But the problem has not been solved. Apple's overseas income still cannot be returned to the United States smoothly, but is collected in Ireland through a series of tax avoidance operations, and then through a series of special agreements between Apple and the Irish government, ultra-low tax rate is achieved.</p><p>Overseas money cannot be returned to the U.S. account, but after Cook took over, Apple needs to spend huge sums of money to repurchase the company's stock every year in order to manage its market value. At the same time, it has also changed from no dividends in the Jobs era to a high proportion of dividends, all of which require large sums of cash.</p><p>According to market statistics, from 2013 to 2022, Apple spent a total of US $553.1 billion on stock repurchases, and the total Dividend expenditure shown in the cash flow statement since 2011 has reached US $131.9 billion.</p><p>This has led Apple to keep a large amount of cash and securities on its books, while constantly borrowing money for repurchases and dividends. Its interest-bearing debt increased significantly from 2013 to 2017, eventually forming the current situation of \"big deposits and big loans\".</p><p>But this is not the root cause of Apple's rising debt ratio. Logically, the asset-liability ratio = total liabilities/total assets, and the asset-liability ratio will only rise when the growth rate of total liabilities is greater than the increase of total assets, so when will this happen? Simply put, it is when you spend more than you earn.</p><p>Specifically, when the debt remains at a relatively stable level, as long as Apple makes more money every year than it spends, the net assets will increase and the overall debt ratio will be controlled or even decreased.</p><p>However, comparing Apple's dividend and repurchase expenditures with the sum of annual net operating activities and investment activities, it will be found that in most years, Apple's expenditures on dividends and repurchases are greater than the net cash generated from operating activities and investment activities. This means that Apple often doesn't make enough money to spend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b304f2fe46f8c5e46b402b342684c74\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>With the continuous accumulation of this state, the growth rate of Apple's assets is far slower than the growth rate of its liabilities, and the debt ratio finally climbed to a high level of 85.5%.</p><p>In 2011, Cook officially took over the position of CEO of Apple. From 2013 to 2022, Apple's total assets have increased by US $145.755 billion, an increase of 70.41%, but its liabilities have increased by US $218.632 billion, an increase of 261.99%.</p><p>From this perspective, in addition to fully tapping the commercial value brought by the iPhone to Apple, Cook's precise \"knife skill\" is also largely reflected in Apple's balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy. As a result, while steadily pushing up its market value, it also needs to face higher and higher debt ratios.</p><p>The more urgent problem is that if you want to return to the security limit of \"earning more than spending\", Apple's current killer is still the iPhone, so while applying more precise \"knife skills\" to the iPhone, it is looking for \"The iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands.</p><p><b>The last wave of dividends for the iPhone?</b></p><p>Since the launch of the first-generation iPhone in 2007, as of the end of September 2022, global iPhone shipments have exceeded 2.3 billion units, generating approximately 10.84 trillion yuan in revenue for Apple.</p><p>According to the data released by market research organization Strategy Analytics, although the total sales of smartphones fell by 35% year-on-year during Double Eleven, the iPhone won the crown with sales of 3.5 million units. The latest data shows that in October 2022, Apple's monthly domestic market share reached a record high of 25%, and it has been the largest mobile phone brand manufacturer in China for two consecutive months.</p><p>Prior to this, the iPhone 14 series was not optimistic, and there were even a lot of complaints.</p><p>Since its release in October, reports related to the iPhone 14 have included \"iPhone 14 makes Huaqiangbei miserable\", \"iPhone 14\" harvests \"scalpers\", \"Squeezing toothpaste makes iPhone 14 suffer?\"... The fancy title almost overwhelmingly reveals the sentiment of bad-mouthing Apple's new machine, which is considered to have obvious pain points from configuration to design.</p><p>Luo Yonghao, an \"old fruit powder\", also quipped after starting a new machine: \"Apple used to be a real machine that looked better than the rendering, but in recent years, my 'American subsidiary'didn't work very well. This time is a good example. The so-called design of Dynamic Island is not as beautiful as in the promotional video. The Android camp has all come up with small and medium black spot front shots, lifting front shots, and visually perfect hidden front shots under the screen. Why do you want to do this?\"</p><p>But whether it is Dynamic Island, who is not optimistic, or Cook's \"knife skills\", although the standard version of the iPhone 14 has been broken, Cook has indeed succeeded in attracting more demand to Pro models with higher configurations and prices--In October, the iPhone 14 Pro Max and iPhone 14 Pro ranked first and second among the best-selling models in China respectively, but the standard versions of the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series have been selling higher before.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24eeada69a9d99a74544ffeee60fd8b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">Vision china</a>）</p><p>In addition, Apple is also gradually expanding its revenue territory in the ecosystem in addition to hardware products such as iPhone and Mac-its revenue from iTunes, software and services has increased from 76 billion yuan in fiscal year 2012 to 546.3 billion yuan in fiscal year 2022. billion yuan, accounting for a proportion of total revenue also increased from 7.66% to 19.81%. Referring to the gross profit margin of more than 70% of Xiaomi's Internet service business, this part of Apple's business theoretically also has a higher profit margin than hardware.</p><p>These are Apple's \"open source\" ways.</p><p>Under this line of thinking, whether it is the aversion of technology giants such as Musk and Zuckerberg to Apple's tax, or the exhaustion of the halo of the first-generation iPhone under Cook's commercial knife technique, it is actually the price that Apple needs to bear.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In a mobile phone advertisement released recently, Apple once again became the object of ridicule-a man was sitting on a wall with a shop that looked like an Apple retail store behind him. When the employee in the store asked him what he was doing, the man insinuated, \"On Samsung's side, there are foldable mobile phones and epic cameras.\" The clerk responded with \"We wait\", secretly mocking Apple for its delay in launching folding screen mobile phones.</p><p>This is not the first time that the two sides have \"confronted each other\" in advertisements. In past advertisements, Samsung has also flirted with Apple's abrupt notch screen, buried Apple's defects such as lag, frequent bugs, and non-waterproofing. It has also used plot comparisons to highlight the old generation of Apple that cannot charge and use headphones at the same time. Basically, Apple's historical defects have been criticized.</p><p>Fortunately, if you look back, most of these bugs have become history, and the innuendo in Samsung's advertisements has become a dramatic force to urge Apple to improve to some extent.</p><p>In the next few years, how to use more accurate \"knife skills\" and relatively limited micro-innovations to make the iPhone and its ecology eat the last wave of dividends in the shrinking industry of smartphones may be Cook's current consideration. One of the important issues, but at the same time, finding the \"iPhone of the next era\" outside the iPhone is also the top priority for the continuation of Apple's business empire.</p><p>The most anticipated presentations by the outside world mainly include Apple smart cars and Apple AR/VR glasses. The former has experienced 8 years of \"dystocia\" and is still far from landing, while the latter has ushered in more and more intensive reports in the near future, which is ready to come out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c0195994f3458221ed1282924f5284\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: vision china)</p><p>In fact, Apple's layout in the AR field is far-reaching than most people think-it launched the AR development platform ARKit at WWDC in 2017. Developers can use this set of tools to create augmented reality applications for iPhone and iPad, and Apple Once AR/VR is launched, most of ARKit's capabilities and corresponding applications can also be presented on new carriers.</p><p>For example, LiDAR LiDAR used in iPad and iPhone Pro has depth-of-field perception capabilities, so in addition to improving camera focusing capabilities for existing products, it is more like laying a solid foundation for the spatial ranging capabilities necessary for future AR/VR devices. For example, the iPhone currently has the function of camera recognition and search for text. If it is applied to future AR/VR devices, the space that can be displayed will be greatly released.</p><p>After WWDC in 2022, Cook once stated in an interview that the AR field is the focus of Apple's daily attention. There are already more than 1,400 ARKit apps in the App Store. He also said, \"Please continue to pay attention, you will see what we bring. product\".</p><p>Judging from the existing news, Apple's AR team has a high probability of holding two sets of solutions, one is a helmet aimed at VR, which corresponds to an immersive virtual experience, and the price may reach $2,000; The other is highly likely to be AR glasses that look closer to ordinary glasses, corresponding to a virtual experience with enhanced reality, but the launch time should be after the VR helmet product.</p><p>Against the background that the smartphone market is no longer growing, whether Apple's brewing AR/VR glasses can catch the baton that the iPhone is about to hand over may be Apple's anxiety in the next few years.</p><p>The question worth thinking about is, with Apple's debt ratio approaching 90%, how much room is left for Cook to maneuver in the future?</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd73a3a7ee0028660eb13b44cbd5058","relate_stocks":{"LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4575":"芯片概念","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4574":"无人驾驶","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","AAPL":"苹果","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4512":"苹果概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125738659","content_text":"除了iPhone，库克精准的“刀法”很大程度也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。于是一边对iPhone施以更精准的“刀法”，一边寻找“下一个时代的iPhone”，成为库克需要两手抓的问题。苹果最近可以说是麻烦不断。11月29日，马斯克在炮轰苹果后，于个人社交媒体上发出一项关于“苹果应该公布所有影响其他客户的审查措施”的投票，近223万人次投票中有85%选择了“Yes”。在此之前，马斯克对苹果App Store高达30%的抽成提出了质疑，并表示苹果曾发出威胁，称可能将自己刚刚收购的社交媒体应用从App Store下架。短暂的闹剧，最终以库克带着马斯克参观苹果总部且达成和解落下帷幕。但很快脸书创始人扎克伯克和流媒体音乐服务Spotify CEO丹尼尔·埃克就接过了马斯克炮轰苹果的接力棒，公开表示苹果App Store剥夺了消费者的选择，不合理地获得生态系统的大多数利润。但类似的指控显然不是苹果第一次面对，回到当下，苹果更为真切和近距离的“焦虑”来自不被看好的iPhone 14系列，而更为深远的“焦虑”，则藏于隐秘的财报数据之间。高企的负债率作为一家总市值超过2万亿美元，总资产规模3528亿美元，年收入3943亿美元，净利润998亿美元的全球科技巨头，苹果的负债率正在偏离大众的普遍认知，而这背后其实是与“避税”和经营策略相关的难题。截至2022年9月末，苹果资产负债率达到85.64%，是其历史上最高水平。相比较而言，苹果所在的纳斯达克，市值前十的上市公司2021财年资产负债率平均值为52.92%，其中苹果以82.03%的负债率位列第二，仅次于百事的82.52%；同期纽交所市值前十的上市公司资产负债率平均值为55.71%，其中负债率达到92.14%的摩根大通属于银行板块，与苹果并无可比性，其次就是负债率达到65.33%的沃尔玛。不论纵向比较还是横向比较，苹果的负债率都不算低，单看这一指标甚至比国内许多高杠杆发展的房地产企业更为激进。极高的负债率背后，苹果截至2022年9月末的带息债务为1200.69亿美元，其中长期定期债务989.59亿美元，短期定期债务111.28亿美元。与此同时，苹果的腰包也是相当鼓——同一时间点其账面现金及等价物、有价证券合计1691.09亿美元，其中现金236.46亿美元，长期和短期有价证券分别为1208.05亿美元和246.58亿美元。具体来看，苹果持有的有价证券中，包括234.09亿美元的美国国债，157.49亿美元的非美国政府债券，以及794.5亿美元的公司债券。（来源：公告）那么问题来了，为什么苹果在全球范围内智能手机出货量第二，且有大把现金和债券放在账上，却还要借那么多钱呢？事实上苹果一直受困于“避税”的难题，因为美国税法规定，苹果的境外所得如果要汇回美国，需要向美国政府缴纳35%的税（税改前），但苹果方面对此一直是抗拒的，认为过高的税率并不合理。外界对于苹果“避税”的质疑长久地存在着，苹果CEO库克还曾在听证会上“舌战参议员”，回击在其看来美国税法的不合理之处。但问题并未得到解决。苹果在海外的收益还是不能顺畅地回到美国，而是经过一系列避税操作被汇集到爱尔兰，再通过苹果和爱尔兰政府的一系列特殊协议，实现超低税率的纳税。海外的钱回不到美国账户，但库克接任后苹果为了进行市值管理，每年都需要斥巨资回购公司股票，同时也从乔布斯时代的不分红转变为高比例分红，这些都需要大笔的现金。市界统计，2013年到2022年，苹果在股票回购上共花费了5531亿美元，2011年以来现金流量表显示的股息支出合计达到1319亿美元。这就导致苹果在账面保有大量现金和证券的同时，需要不断借钱用于回购和分红，其带息债务在2013至2017年间大幅提升，最终形成如今“大存大贷”的局面。但这还不是苹果负债率升高的根本原因。从逻辑上看，资产负债率=总负债/总资产，只有当总负债增长幅度大于总资产增幅时，资产负债率才会上升，那么什么时候会出现这种情况？简单来说就是花的比赚的多的时候。具体来说，在负债保持在一个相对稳定水平时，只要苹果每年赚的钱比花的钱多，那么净资产就会增长，整体负债率也会得到控制甚至有所下降。但比较苹果分红和回购支出与每年经营活动和投资活动净额之和，会发现大多数年份苹果用于分红和回购的支出，都大于经营活动和投资活动产生的现金净额。这就意味着苹果赚的钱常常不够花。这种状态的不断积累下，苹果的资产增长速度远不及负债的增长速度，负债率也最终爬升至85.5%的高水平。2011年库克正式接过苹果CEO之位，2013年以来一直到2022年，苹果总资产增加了1457.55亿美元，增幅70.41%，但负债增加了2186.32亿美元，增幅达到261.99%。从这个角度看，除了充分挖掘iPhone给苹果带来的商业价值，库克的精准“刀法”很大程度上也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是其在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。更为急迫的问题在于，想要回到“赚的比花的多”这样的安全界限内，苹果当前的杀手锏依然是iPhone，于是一边对iPhone施以更精准的“刀法”，一边寻找“下一个时代的iPhone”，成为库克需要两手抓的问题。iPhone的最后一波红利？自2007年第一代iPhone面市以来，截至2022年9月末iPhone在全球的出货量已累计超过23亿台，为苹果创收约10.84万亿元。市场调研机构Strategy Analytics 公布的数据显示，双十一期间智能手机总销量虽然同比下降35%，但iPhone却以350万台的销量摘下桂冠。最新数据显示，2022年10月苹果在国内的月度市场份额达到25%的历史最高水平，且连续两个月是国内第一大手机品牌厂商。在此之前，iPhone 14系列并不被看好，甚至吐槽颇多。自10月份发布以来，与iPhone 14相关的报道包括《iPhone 14 把华强北坑惨了》《iPhone 14“收割”黄牛》《挤牙膏让iPhone 14吃到苦头？》……花式标题几乎一边倒地透露唱衰苹果新机的情绪，从配置到设计都被认为有着明显的痛点。“老果粉”罗永浩也在入手新机后调侃道：“苹果过去一直是真机比渲染图好看，但这些年我那个‘美国子公司’也不太灵了，这次就是很好的一个例子，所谓灵动岛的设计并不像宣传视频里那么漂亮。安卓阵营把不影响美感的居中小黑点前摄，升降式前摄，以及视觉完美的屏下隐藏式前摄全都搞出来了，为什么要做这种先在脸上涂屎，再把屎的颜色调整得跟粉底差不多的事儿？”但不管是不被看好的灵动岛，还是库克的“刀法”，虽然玩坏了iPhone 14标准版，但库克确实成功将更多需求吸引至配置和售价更高的Pro机型上——10月份iPhone 14 Pro Max和iPhone 14 Pro分别是国内畅销机型中的第一和第二，但此前iPhone 12和iPhone 13系列标准版一直销量更高。（图片来源：视觉中国）除此之外，苹果也在iPhone、Mac等硬件产品外逐渐扩大自己在生态中的收入版图——其来自于iTunes、软件和服务的收入从2012财年的760亿元增至2022财年5463亿元，占总收入比重也从7.66%提高至19.81%，参照小米互联网服务业务70%以上的毛利率，苹果这部分业务理论上也有着相比硬件更高的利润空间。这些都是苹果“开源”的方式。在这一思路下，不管是马斯克、扎克伯格等科技巨头对苹果税的反感，还是在库克商业刀法下初代iPhone光环的消磨殆尽，事实上都是苹果需要承受的代价。在三星近日发布的一则手机广告里，苹果再次成为被嘲讽的对象——一个男人坐在一堵墙头，背后是一个长得像苹果零售店的铺面，店里员工问他在做什么，男人含沙射影地说道，“在三星那边，有可折叠的手机和史诗般的相机”，店员则回应以“我们等待”，暗嘲苹果迟迟未推出折叠屏手机。这并非双方第一次在广告里“侧面交锋”。过往的广告中，三星还调戏过苹果突兀的刘海屏，埋汰过苹果的卡顿、bug频发和不防水等缺陷，还用情节对比凸显无法同时充电和使用耳机的旧代苹果，基本上把苹果历来的缺陷都数落了一遍。好在如果回头看，其中大部分bug都成了历史，三星广告中的暗讽某种程度上也成为督促苹果改进的一种戏剧性力量。在接下来几年内，如何以更加精准的“刀法”和相对有限的微创新，让iPhone 及其生态在智能手机这个逐渐萎缩的行业里吃尽最后一波红利，或许是库克眼下考虑的重要问题之一，但与此同时在iPhone之外找到“下一个时代的iPhone”，也是苹果商业帝国得以延续的重中之重。外界最期待的呈现主要包括苹果智能汽车和苹果AR/VR眼镜，前者经历8年的“难产”目前依然距离落地遥遥无期，后者则在近期迎来越来越密集的报道，在万众瞩目中呼之欲出。（图片来源：视觉中国）事实上苹果在AR领域的布局比大多数人想象的都要深远——其于2017年WWDC推出了AR开发平台ARKit，开发人员可以使用这套工具为iPhone和iPad创建增强现实应用程序，而苹果的AR/VR一旦面市，ARKit具备的能力和对应的应用程序，大部分也都可以呈现在新的载体上。比如应用于iPad、iPhone Pro的LiDAR激光雷达，因为具备景深感知能力，所以除了为现有产品提高摄像对焦能力外，更像是在为未来AR/VR设备所必需的空间测距能力打好基础。也比如iPhone目前具备的摄像头识别文字并搜索的功能，如果应用于未来的AR/VR设备，能够施展的空间也会大大得到释放。2022年WWDC之后，库克曾在采访中表述，AR领域是苹果每天关注的重点，App Store中已经有超过1400个ARKit APP，还表示“请继续关注，你将会看到我们所带来的产品”。从已有消息来看，苹果的AR团队大概率手握两套方案，一个是瞄准VR的头盔，对应的是沉浸式的虚拟体验，售价可能达到2000美元；另一个则大概率是外观更贴近普通眼镜的AR眼镜，对应的是现实加强的虚拟体验，但推出的时间点应该会在VR头盔产品之后。在智能手机市场增长不再的背景下，苹果酝酿中的AR/VR眼镜能否接住iPhone即将交出的接力棒，或许就是苹果未来几年的焦虑所在。值得思考的问题是，在苹果的负债率逼近90%的当下，未来可供库克腾挪的空间还剩多少？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962422039,"gmtCreate":1669825906721,"gmtModify":1676538252042,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962422039","repostId":"1133786233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133786233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669822029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133786233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133786233","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon who is trapped in financial difficulties can survive.</p><p>In 2019, the white knight Sun Hongbin, who was in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the quagmire at that time, for a total price of 14.9 billion. The existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white knights of the past also needed to save them. These two luxury residential projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring, which has been in danger for six months.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarongben Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the aforementioned two luxury housing projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects with a value of tens of billions will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person analyzed to Wall Street News that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks from the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, acquiring a controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to sources, this time CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan in funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll up, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets. Similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion, they acquired project equity and injected funds to allow the project company to gradually resume normal operations and restore hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that these two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin's hard negotiations and mediation for several months have also been settled. And at once it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. From the second half of 2021 to the present, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan in funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the market's unexpected downturn this year still caused him to fall in May.</p><p>A person close to Sun Hongbin said that in the last six months or so, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and he has been traveling around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for half a year, has finally welcomed the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street News also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also express support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually getting out of the current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan. It is one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longfor. At the same time, Sunac ranks third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if it wants to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors have withdrawn their liquidation petition. With CITIC's involvement in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>There are indications that Sun Hongbin, a big man in the real estate industry who is famous for his boldness and speech, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project, a number of projects will be promoted to \"come alive\". At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a boss who once fell and was reborn in the Sunco stage, will perform another miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" on Sunac. He and this company will be able to rejuvenate after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon who is trapped in financial difficulties can survive.</p><p>In 2019, the white knight Sun Hongbin, who was in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the quagmire at that time, for a total price of 14.9 billion. The existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white knights of the past also needed to save them. These two luxury residential projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring, which has been in danger for six months.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarongben Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the aforementioned two luxury housing projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects with a value of tens of billions will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person analyzed to Wall Street News that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks from the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, acquiring a controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to sources, this time CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan in funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll up, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets. Similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion, they acquired project equity and injected funds to allow the project company to gradually resume normal operations and restore hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that these two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin's hard negotiations and mediation for several months have also been settled. And at once it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. From the second half of 2021 to the present, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan in funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the market's unexpected downturn this year still caused him to fall in May.</p><p>A person close to Sun Hongbin said that in the last six months or so, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and he has been traveling around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for half a year, has finally welcomed the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street News also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also express support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually getting out of the current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan. It is one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longfor. At the same time, Sunac ranks third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if it wants to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors have withdrawn their liquidation petition. With CITIC's involvement in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>There are indications that Sun Hongbin, a big man in the real estate industry who is famous for his boldness and speech, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project, a number of projects will be promoted to \"come alive\". At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a boss who once fell and was reborn in the Sunco stage, will perform another miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" on Sunac. He and this company will be able to rejuvenate after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f161e88fa8de9ce4f4457224c02fa6","relate_stocks":{"01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133786233","content_text":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅的存在。转眼，当年的白衣骑士如今也需要白衣骑士来救了。而这两个豪宅项目，成了出险6个月的融创债务重组的突破口。11月28日，工商信息显示，融创中国将其持有的泛海国际建设89.7%股权，转让给了中信信托及芜湖华融资本创誉投资中心，持股比例分别为64.7%、25%，融创的持股则降到了10.3%。泛海国际建设便是前述两个豪宅项目的主体。随着中信和华融的介入，这两个货值数百亿的项目，也将在外部资金的注入下得以盘活。一名国有AMC人士向华尔街见闻分析称，这就是要在项目层面对融创的资产进行盘活。通过获取项目的控股权，能和集团做风险隔离，保障项目持续开发。这也符合近期出台的“金融十六条”里的相关精神，比如鼓励金融机构区分项目和集团风险、鼓励信托等资管产品支持房地产合理融资需求。不过，获取控股权，不是为了掌控这家公司，而只是提供融资，项目仍由融创的团队操盘。有消息人士称，此次中信系将会带来80亿元资金，给予流动性支持。随着增量资金进入，项目就能滚动起来，对于融创的债务偿还也有好处。在偿还完相应债务后，多余的钱也会回流到集团。中信信托和华融接手融创资产，和之前中信银行协同中信集团盘活佳兆业超500亿货值资产类似，收购项目股权，注入资金，让项目公司逐步恢复正常经营，恢复造血能力。而选择这两个项目，也是因为其资产优质。前述AMC人士说，融创的这两个项目质地不错，当时信达等AMC机构也想和融创进行百亿级规模的合作。自此，5月份在公开市场违约的融创，终于有了重大的债务重组进展。孙宏斌苦苦谈判、斡旋了几个月的事宜，也有了着落。并且一下就是数百亿资产的盘活。孙宏斌是地产大佬当中努力自救的一个代表。从2021年下半年至今，孙宏斌已经陆续通过出售贝壳股权、配股、大股东无息借款以及处置资产等形式，回笼了近400亿元资金。然而今年以来市场超预期的下行，还是让他倒在了5月。有接近孙宏斌的人士表示，最近半年多里老孙几乎不在办公室，都是在各地奔波，就是为了找金融机构，寻求支持。如今，奔波了大半年的孙宏斌，终是迎来了白衣骑士的驰援。金融机构也是愿意支持孙宏斌的，融创的产品在市场上依旧还是有着不错的口碑。华尔街见闻也了解到，目前融创和债权人小组在沟通初步重组方案，大部分债权人也对融创通过债务重组表示支持。预计会在今年年内对外公布重组方案。就在前一天（11月29日）晚上，融创还公布了2021年业绩预告。这是融创股票要复牌的一个基本要素，也是孙宏斌和融创逐渐走出眼下困境的信号。克而瑞数据显示，今年前11个月，融创以1530.5 亿元的销售额排在全国第十，是碧桂园、龙湖之外，前十里少有的民营房企。同时，融创在上海销售额排在第三位。当然，想要复牌，融创还需要解决境外的清盘诉讼的问题。不过近期旭辉已和债权人达成了和解，债权人撤回了清盘呈请。随着这次中信系介入融创资产盘活，相信投资者也能够和融创方面寻找到合适的解决方案。种种迹象表明，孙宏斌这位地产界里以豪爽、敢言著称的大佬，在沉寂数月后，逐渐恢复了活力。接下来，便是通过对董家渡项目等的盘活，推动一批项目“活过来”。同时则是进一步获取债权人的支持，达成债务重组方案，以时间换空间。很多地产界、金融界人士都密切关注着融创和孙宏斌。他们期望在不久后，孙宏斌这位曾经在顺驰阶段摔倒重生的大佬，在融创身上又能上演一出“死而复生”的奇迹，他和这家公司在行业调整结束后，还能重新焕发生机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01918":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962426439,"gmtCreate":1669825888022,"gmtModify":1676538252034,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962426439","repostId":"1133786233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133786233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669822029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133786233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133786233","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon who is trapped in financial difficulties can survive.</p><p>In 2019, the white knight Sun Hongbin, who was in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the quagmire at that time, for a total price of 14.9 billion. The existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white knights of the past also needed to save them. These two luxury residential projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring, which has been in danger for six months.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarongben Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the aforementioned two luxury housing projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects with a value of tens of billions will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person analyzed to Wall Street News that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks from the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, acquiring a controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to sources, this time CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan in funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll up, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets. Similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion, they acquired project equity and injected funds to allow the project company to gradually resume normal operations and restore hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that these two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin's hard negotiations and mediation for several months have also been settled. And at once it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. From the second half of 2021 to the present, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan in funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the market's unexpected downturn this year still caused him to fall in May.</p><p>A person close to Sun Hongbin said that in the last six months or so, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and he has been traveling around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for half a year, has finally welcomed the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street News also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also express support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually getting out of the current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan. It is one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longfor. At the same time, Sunac ranks third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if it wants to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors have withdrawn their liquidation petition. With CITIC's involvement in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>There are indications that Sun Hongbin, a big man in the real estate industry who is famous for his boldness and speech, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project, a number of projects will be promoted to \"come alive\". At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a boss who once fell and was reborn in the Sunco stage, will perform another miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" on Sunac. He and this company will be able to rejuvenate after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon who is trapped in financial difficulties can survive.</p><p>In 2019, the white knight Sun Hongbin, who was in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the quagmire at that time, for a total price of 14.9 billion. The existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white knights of the past also needed to save them. These two luxury residential projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring, which has been in danger for six months.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarongben Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the aforementioned two luxury housing projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects with a value of tens of billions will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person analyzed to Wall Street News that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks from the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, acquiring a controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to sources, this time CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan in funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll up, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets. Similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion, they acquired project equity and injected funds to allow the project company to gradually resume normal operations and restore hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that these two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin's hard negotiations and mediation for several months have also been settled. And at once it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. From the second half of 2021 to the present, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan in funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the market's unexpected downturn this year still caused him to fall in May.</p><p>A person close to Sun Hongbin said that in the last six months or so, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and he has been traveling around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for half a year, has finally welcomed the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street News also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also express support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually getting out of the current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan. It is one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longfor. At the same time, Sunac ranks third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if it wants to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors have withdrawn their liquidation petition. With CITIC's involvement in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>There are indications that Sun Hongbin, a big man in the real estate industry who is famous for his boldness and speech, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project, a number of projects will be promoted to \"come alive\". At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a boss who once fell and was reborn in the Sunco stage, will perform another miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" on Sunac. He and this company will be able to rejuvenate after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f161e88fa8de9ce4f4457224c02fa6","relate_stocks":{"01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133786233","content_text":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅的存在。转眼，当年的白衣骑士如今也需要白衣骑士来救了。而这两个豪宅项目，成了出险6个月的融创债务重组的突破口。11月28日，工商信息显示，融创中国将其持有的泛海国际建设89.7%股权，转让给了中信信托及芜湖华融资本创誉投资中心，持股比例分别为64.7%、25%，融创的持股则降到了10.3%。泛海国际建设便是前述两个豪宅项目的主体。随着中信和华融的介入，这两个货值数百亿的项目，也将在外部资金的注入下得以盘活。一名国有AMC人士向华尔街见闻分析称，这就是要在项目层面对融创的资产进行盘活。通过获取项目的控股权，能和集团做风险隔离，保障项目持续开发。这也符合近期出台的“金融十六条”里的相关精神，比如鼓励金融机构区分项目和集团风险、鼓励信托等资管产品支持房地产合理融资需求。不过，获取控股权，不是为了掌控这家公司，而只是提供融资，项目仍由融创的团队操盘。有消息人士称，此次中信系将会带来80亿元资金，给予流动性支持。随着增量资金进入，项目就能滚动起来，对于融创的债务偿还也有好处。在偿还完相应债务后，多余的钱也会回流到集团。中信信托和华融接手融创资产，和之前中信银行协同中信集团盘活佳兆业超500亿货值资产类似，收购项目股权，注入资金，让项目公司逐步恢复正常经营，恢复造血能力。而选择这两个项目，也是因为其资产优质。前述AMC人士说，融创的这两个项目质地不错，当时信达等AMC机构也想和融创进行百亿级规模的合作。自此，5月份在公开市场违约的融创，终于有了重大的债务重组进展。孙宏斌苦苦谈判、斡旋了几个月的事宜，也有了着落。并且一下就是数百亿资产的盘活。孙宏斌是地产大佬当中努力自救的一个代表。从2021年下半年至今，孙宏斌已经陆续通过出售贝壳股权、配股、大股东无息借款以及处置资产等形式，回笼了近400亿元资金。然而今年以来市场超预期的下行，还是让他倒在了5月。有接近孙宏斌的人士表示，最近半年多里老孙几乎不在办公室，都是在各地奔波，就是为了找金融机构，寻求支持。如今，奔波了大半年的孙宏斌，终是迎来了白衣骑士的驰援。金融机构也是愿意支持孙宏斌的，融创的产品在市场上依旧还是有着不错的口碑。华尔街见闻也了解到，目前融创和债权人小组在沟通初步重组方案，大部分债权人也对融创通过债务重组表示支持。预计会在今年年内对外公布重组方案。就在前一天（11月29日）晚上，融创还公布了2021年业绩预告。这是融创股票要复牌的一个基本要素，也是孙宏斌和融创逐渐走出眼下困境的信号。克而瑞数据显示，今年前11个月，融创以1530.5 亿元的销售额排在全国第十，是碧桂园、龙湖之外，前十里少有的民营房企。同时，融创在上海销售额排在第三位。当然，想要复牌，融创还需要解决境外的清盘诉讼的问题。不过近期旭辉已和债权人达成了和解，债权人撤回了清盘呈请。随着这次中信系介入融创资产盘活，相信投资者也能够和融创方面寻找到合适的解决方案。种种迹象表明，孙宏斌这位地产界里以豪爽、敢言著称的大佬，在沉寂数月后，逐渐恢复了活力。接下来，便是通过对董家渡项目等的盘活，推动一批项目“活过来”。同时则是进一步获取债权人的支持，达成债务重组方案，以时间换空间。很多地产界、金融界人士都密切关注着融创和孙宏斌。他们期望在不久后，孙宏斌这位曾经在顺驰阶段摔倒重生的大佬，在融创身上又能上演一出“死而复生”的奇迹，他和这家公司在行业调整结束后，还能重新焕发生机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01918":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960343825,"gmtCreate":1668082789268,"gmtModify":1676538009681,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960343825","repostId":"1117158204","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117158204","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668079921,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117158204?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-10 19:32","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"SMIC's Q3 revenue was US $1.907 billion, net profit was US $470 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117158204","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月10日，中芯国际发布2022年第三季度业绩。财报显示，第三季度营收19.07亿美元，市场预期19.35亿美元，去年同期14.15亿美元；净利润4.7亿美元，市场预期4.93亿美元，去年同期3.2","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>November 10th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Release Third Quarter 2022 Results. The financial report shows that revenue in the third quarter was US $1.907 billion, market expectations were US $1.935 billion, and US $1.415 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was US $470 million, market expectations were US $493 million, and US $321 million in the same period last year; Earnings per share were $0.06, market expectations of $0.06, and $0.04 in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a51299e34136be730166625f07828bc\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"709\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gross profit in the third quarter was US $742 million, compared with US $750 million in the second quarter of 2022, an increase of 58.6% compared with US $468 million in the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>Cost of sales in the third quarter was US $1.165 billion, compared to US $1.153 billion in the second quarter of 2022.</p><p>It is estimated that in the fourth quarter, due to the weak demand in the mobile phone and consumer fields, and the need for some customers to buffer time to interpret the new U.S. export control regulations, sales revenue is expected to drop by 13% to 15% month-on-month, and gross profit margins will be between 30% and 32%. between. According to the results of the first three quarters and the median guidance for the fourth quarter, the company's full-year revenue is expected to be around US $7.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 34%, and the gross profit margin is expected to be around 38%. The full-year capital expenditure plan was raised from $5 billion to $6.6 billion.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SMIC's Q3 revenue was US $1.907 billion, net profit was US $470 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSMIC's Q3 revenue was US $1.907 billion, net profit was US $470 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-10 19:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>November 10th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Release Third Quarter 2022 Results. The financial report shows that revenue in the third quarter was US $1.907 billion, market expectations were US $1.935 billion, and US $1.415 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was US $470 million, market expectations were US $493 million, and US $321 million in the same period last year; Earnings per share were $0.06, market expectations of $0.06, and $0.04 in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a51299e34136be730166625f07828bc\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"709\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gross profit in the third quarter was US $742 million, compared with US $750 million in the second quarter of 2022, an increase of 58.6% compared with US $468 million in the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>Cost of sales in the third quarter was US $1.165 billion, compared to US $1.153 billion in the second quarter of 2022.</p><p>It is estimated that in the fourth quarter, due to the weak demand in the mobile phone and consumer fields, and the need for some customers to buffer time to interpret the new U.S. export control regulations, sales revenue is expected to drop by 13% to 15% month-on-month, and gross profit margins will be between 30% and 32%. between. According to the results of the first three quarters and the median guidance for the fourth quarter, the company's full-year revenue is expected to be around US $7.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 34%, and the gross profit margin is expected to be around 38%. The full-year capital expenditure plan was raised from $5 billion to $6.6 billion.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ecaf7b843618667282559909e22a1fb","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","BK1526":"科网股","BK1163":"半导体产品","BK0214":"IT设备","BK1607":"新IT概念","00981":"中芯国际"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117158204","content_text":"11月10日，中芯国际发布2022年第三季度业绩。财报显示，第三季度营收19.07亿美元，市场预期19.35亿美元，去年同期14.15亿美元；净利润4.7亿美元，市场预期4.93亿美元，去年同期3.21亿美元；每股收益0.06美元，市场预期0.06美元，去年同期0.04美元。第三季毛利为7.42亿美元，相比2022年第二季为7.5亿美元，相较于2021年第三季的4.68亿美元增长58.6%。第三季的销售成本为11.65亿美元，相较于2022年第二季为11.53亿美元。预计第四季度，受手机、消费领域需求疲弱，叠加部分客户需要缓冲时间解读美国出口管制新规而带来的影响，销售收入预计环比下降13%到15%，毛利率在30%到32%之间。根据前三季度业绩和四季度指引中值，公司全年收入预计在73亿美元左右，同比增长约34%，毛利率预计在38%左右。全年资本支出计画从50亿美元上调为66亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":0.9,"00981":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}