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ephramz
ephramz
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2023-02-05
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Tesla: Pricing Power At A Fair Value
SummaryThe current Tesla, Inc. share price is trading near the intrinsic value of the company.Existi
Tesla: Pricing Power At A Fair Value
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ephramz
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2023-01-31
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ephramz
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2022-12-24
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
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2021-03-16
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Why Sundial Growers Stock Surged Monday
The popular cannabis stock announced a new strategic partnership. What happened Shares of Sundial Gr
Why Sundial Growers Stock Surged Monday
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ephramz
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2021-03-16
Soar tmrw?
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ephramz
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2021-03-16
$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$
hold?
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ephramz
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2021-03-15
$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$
Ctrm to the moon
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ephramz
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2021-03-07
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
Holding till 40$
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pricing power.Core technologies are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4575203-tesla-pricing-power-at-a-fair-value\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL 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(NASDAQ:TSLA) is not just a car company; it is a technology company. This has been a hot topic of debate, especially since it makes 95% of revenue from selling cars. We need to pull Tesla's revenue streams apart a little bit to understand why its core offering is software. The Tesla motor's carbon fiber wrap impresses the mechanical engineer in me, but the software in the Tesla is the game changer.I am lucky enough to be a beta tester for Full Self Driving (\"FSD\"). My Model 3 received FSD Beta in September of 2022, and it is amazing. A few days after I got the upgrade, I let it take me and my son from his soccer game all the way home with no input from me. Although a necessary 3 lane change in 100 meters was less than comfortable, stop lights, signs, and almost everything else was handled well by the system. My background in machine learning and data science gives me a deep appreciation of what the team has accomplished. Still, this is Seeking Alpha, and we should focus on the numbers, more specifically the numbers with dollar signs in front of them.Tesla has increased the cost of its Full Self Driving capability from $6,000 in 2019 to $15,000; not bad pricing power for software in beta that isn't really fully self-driving yet. The take rate on the FSD add-on is now around 14%, however, I believe that shows a purposeful reversion caused by Tesla pricing policies. The chart below shows the FSD take rate since late 2016.Teslike Order TrackerThe company began raising prices on the FSD option in Quarter 3 of 2019 and continued until the most recent price increase to $15k at the end of 2022. The take rate is now back down to the level it started at. I don't believe the increase in price is Tesla giving up, as other authors have argued. I have experienced a massive increase in capabilities and functionality moving from Enhanced Autopilot to FSD. Tesla also has multiple options for leveraging this technology in other products, as can be seen from the application of the FSD algorithms to their humanoid robot, Optimus. The team applied the same Artificial Intelligence techniques used in FSD to create the bot in under a year.Tesla products are cool for sure, however, cool products do not make a successful company. Only solid business fundamentals can do that.Long-Term Growth ProspectsThe following chart shows Tesla compared with the rest of the companies in the S&P 500 (SP500) for context regarding earnings on unleveraged net tangible assets. The blue shaded area here shows the distribution of all other companies in the S&P 500 since 2013. Tesla is way up at the top, above the 85th percentile.Authors Image from Financial Modeling Prep DataWarren Buffett uses unleveraged net tangible assets to decide what he calls the long-term economic prospects of a business. His logic is simple, increasing earnings without major capital requirements is a better business to be in. It takes money to make money, but you want it to take as little money as possible.At a Return on Unleveraged Net Tangible Assets of 14.7% Tesla is well above the rest of the S&P 500, which is centered around 6.1%. The recent massive increase shown in the chart above demonstrated pricing power during an economic shock. Other SA authors have pointed out the Tesla has the ability to capitalize on more segments of the value chain than other car companies such as Ford (F) or General Motors (GM). I see this as a positive for the overall business model and demonstrates the pricing power of the product lines rather than a negative on margins. GM and Ford were left watching the dealerships soak up most of the increased margins.The chart below shows that Tesla does forecast a decrease in margins until at least February of 2024. The decrease in margins expected reaches a level that normalizes back to long-term trends and still maintains a very healthy 14%.Authors Image from Financial Modeling Prep DataIt is important to understand that this margin prediction is not based on my opinion. It is the result of analyst forecasts from major brokerage houses for both earnings and revenue.Risk Reward ForecastHere we explore risk and reward for TSLA stock over the next two annual earnings cycles.The below chart is a prediction of value at risk and potential return of holding Tesla stock. As shown by the blue intrinsic value region in the chart below, Tesla is in the center of its intrinsic value region. The large drop at the end of the 3erd Quarter of 2022 is the result of the decrease in margins shown in the chart above.Authors Image from Financial Modeling Prep DataTesla now has a value at risk of 52%, while potential returns are only 8%. This 8% is based on the long-term intrinsic value that Tesla has traded at. Long term, the company has solid fundamentals, so as a buy and hold you can do well. The range of predicted values in 2024 is very large, so over the near term Tesla is a momentum and sentiment play. I can't predict how well a near-term trade will turn out, but the odds are in favor of the long momentum position.For an explanation of the risk return forecast, look at this article on Visa (V). It also provides a link to a video of the long-term performance of that estimate.The algorithms do a pretty good job of predicting long-term price movement, but price will go outside the blue bands. Those bands are only there to show you where the price should be 90% of the time. This forecast, and forecasts for other stocks as well, tend to lag price when it goes down and lead when it goes up. This makes it useful to figure out risk in a stock, but it is less reliable for market timing. I am unaware of any market timing schemes that stand up to robust analysis.ConclusionTesla, Inc. offers amazing products that have the potential to change the world. The potential and existing value of these products were only briefly explored in this article. The company is using core technologies to explore new markets which may lead to exceptional returns for shareholders. Tesla, Inc. is currently fairly valued based on long-term trading trends and high trading ranges around intrinsic company value. However, Tesla stock is only suitable for those willing to hold on through extreme share price volatility.This article is written by Alpha Investment Research for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955043336,"gmtCreate":1675109550325,"gmtModify":1676538976241,"author":{"id":"3574929228967912","authorId":"3574929228967912","name":"ephramz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574929228967912","idStr":"3574929228967912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955043336","repostId":"1107730647","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9922463349,"gmtCreate":1671819072782,"gmtModify":1676538599530,"author":{"id":"3574929228967912","authorId":"3574929228967912","name":"ephramz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574929228967912","idStr":"3574929228967912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922463349","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325928449,"gmtCreate":1615858552981,"gmtModify":1704787542099,"author":{"id":"3574929228967912","authorId":"3574929228967912","name":"ephramz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574929228967912","idStr":"3574929228967912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325928449","repostId":"1155320238","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155320238","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615858164,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155320238?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-16 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Sundial Growers Stock Surged Monday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155320238","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The popular cannabis stock announced a new strategic partnership.\nWhat happened\nShares of Sundial Gr","content":"<p>The popular cannabis stock announced a new strategic partnership.</p>\n<p><b>What happened</b></p>\n<p>Shares of <b>Sundial Growers</b> (NASDAQ:SNDL) popped on Monday after the marijuana producer said it would create a joint venture with SAF Group. Sundial's stock's price was up more than 14%.</p>\n<p><b>So what</b></p>\n<p>The two companies will work together to build SunStream Bancorp. The joint venture will focus on making cannabis-related debt and equity investments in Canada and international markets. Sundial and SAF Group will each own half of SunStream.</p>\n<p>SunStream will create a special opportunities fund that will accept contributions from third-party investors, along with $100 million in initial funding from Sundial. SunStream also intends to create a Canadian special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in the future.</p>\n<p>\"Following early success with our internal capital investment program, we are pleased to announce this new partnership with SAF, as we continue to identify innovative ways to deliver on our commitment to shareholder value creation,\" Sundial CEO Zach George said in a press release. \"SunStream will enable Sundial to remain focused on our core operations, while leveraging the strength of SAF's private equity and credit investment expertise on a global scale.\"</p>\n<p><b>Now what</b></p>\n<p>Sundial has raised hundreds of millions of dollars in recent months via a series of share and warrant offerings. These stock sales have diluted its shareholders' ownership stakes, but they've also given the cannabis producer a lot of cash to invest.</p>\n<p>Ultimately, the long-term performance of Sundial's stock will be determined by its ability to generate strong returns on its shareholders' capital. For today at least, investors appear to be signaling their approval of how Sundial's leadership team is deploying their cash.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Sundial Growers Stock Surged Monday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Sundial Growers Stock Surged Monday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-16 09:29 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/15/why-sundial-growers-stock-surged-today/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The popular cannabis stock announced a new strategic partnership.\nWhat happened\nShares of Sundial Growers (NASDAQ:SNDL) popped on Monday after the marijuana producer said it would create a joint ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/15/why-sundial-growers-stock-surged-today/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNDL":"SNDL Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/15/why-sundial-growers-stock-surged-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155320238","content_text":"The popular cannabis stock announced a new strategic partnership.\nWhat happened\nShares of Sundial Growers (NASDAQ:SNDL) popped on Monday after the marijuana producer said it would create a joint venture with SAF Group. Sundial's stock's price was up more than 14%.\nSo what\nThe two companies will work together to build SunStream Bancorp. The joint venture will focus on making cannabis-related debt and equity investments in Canada and international markets. Sundial and SAF Group will each own half of SunStream.\nSunStream will create a special opportunities fund that will accept contributions from third-party investors, along with $100 million in initial funding from Sundial. SunStream also intends to create a Canadian special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in the future.\n\"Following early success with our internal capital investment program, we are pleased to announce this new partnership with SAF, as we continue to identify innovative ways to deliver on our commitment to shareholder value creation,\" Sundial CEO Zach George said in a press release. \"SunStream will enable Sundial to remain focused on our core operations, while leveraging the strength of SAF's private equity and credit investment expertise on a global scale.\"\nNow what\nSundial has raised hundreds of millions of dollars in recent months via a series of share and warrant offerings. These stock sales have diluted its shareholders' ownership stakes, but they've also given the cannabis producer a lot of cash to invest.\nUltimately, the long-term performance of Sundial's stock will be determined by its ability to generate strong returns on its shareholders' capital. For today at least, investors appear to be signaling their approval of how Sundial's leadership team is deploying their cash.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322763461,"gmtCreate":1615829551953,"gmtModify":1704787262342,"author":{"id":"3574929228967912","authorId":"3574929228967912","name":"ephramz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574929228967912","idStr":"3574929228967912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Soar tmrw?","listText":"Soar tmrw?","text":"Soar tmrw?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3fdd5407c61830d2a2f45f9693f962","width":"1080","height":"2651"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322763461","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322763894,"gmtCreate":1615829517018,"gmtModify":1704787261695,"author":{"id":"3574929228967912","authorId":"3574929228967912","name":"ephramz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574929228967912","idStr":"3574929228967912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRCH\">$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$</a>hold?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRCH\">$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$</a>hold?","text":"$Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)$hold?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30ab46f38650335b2eceb16a45f9527","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322763894","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322669128,"gmtCreate":1615803328164,"gmtModify":1704786714266,"author":{"id":"3574929228967912","authorId":"3574929228967912","name":"ephramz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574929228967912","idStr":"3574929228967912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>Ctrm to the moon","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CTRM\">$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$</a>Ctrm to the moon","text":"$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$Ctrm to the moon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b827ba69f65875951a66ac7f884349","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322669128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320670035,"gmtCreate":1615102140327,"gmtModify":1704778678846,"author":{"id":"3574929228967912","authorId":"3574929228967912","name":"ephramz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574929228967912","idStr":"3574929228967912"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Holding till 40$","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Holding till 40$","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Holding till 40$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c3f30b96b7d2ecfb5810fdea1212604","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320670035","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}