Today is NFP day, and the VIX index is hovering near its lowest level since Trump's election victory. A stronger-than-expected NFP print could be bearish, while a significantly weaker report might also trigger a selloff due to recession fears, as seen last quarter. Given the current optimism despite geopolitical tensions, only a narrow range of NFP results is likely to sustain bullish sentiment and drive markets to new highs.
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Buying the dip, will DCA if it goes lower. Recent price drop is just a speculative play, nothing fundamental. Indeed, Deepseek has sparked a wide controversy on current valuation of AI, but we all know AI is not Microsoft's main revenue. Softwares like - Excel, PPT and teams that are (in my opinion) irreplaceable in the corporate world. Like Trump, I would see Deepseek as a wake up call for AI costs rather than doomsday.
$NVDA 20250207 110.0 PUT$ Looking to sell nvidia put to earn some premium once market opens. Reasons: 1. Willing to take delivery if it is exercised 2. No earnings report the next 11 days, only fomc and other magnificent 7 stocks earnings to watch out for 3. Deepseek has triggered a massive selloff, looking temporary given rumours about how its low cost excludes prior research/setup cost - I expect more cracks/reviews from critics
$PLTR 20250207 75.0 PUT$ Earnings coming, many investors will take profit and stay out given the extreme overvaluation. I will be taking profit if PLTR reaches below 70 and exit before expiry.
Longing $Micron Technology(MU)$ Entry: Trump investing up to $500bn in AI infrastructure but MU as part of the production seems to have lagging effects. Catalysts: 1. Good analysts rating 2. Forward guidance for 2025Q2 has already been revised downwards in December earnings report => hence potential disappointments have already been priced in 3. P/E below industry average Risk: 1. Insiders have been selling the past 1 year, which may indicate the lack of confidence; But they only make up 0.3% whereas financial institutions make up 70% of it. Good analyst ratings should therefore hold more weightage.
$AAPL 20250124 215.0 PUT$ IV higher than HV, selling to earn premium Next 3 days not many data release and APPL has already been impacted by consecutive disappointments.