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CJoe独孤求胜

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- CJoe独孤求胜CJoe独孤求胜
  ·2022-08-26
  $KNOT Offshore Partners LP(KNOP)$go
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- CJoe独孤求胜CJoe独孤求胜
  ·2022-08-26
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- CJoe独孤求胜CJoe独孤求胜
  ·2022-08-26
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  Want $1,000 in Passive Income? Invest $4,626 in These 3 Stocks and Wait 5 Years
  These three companies are conservative and have a history of dividend increases.
  Want $1,000 in Passive Income? Invest $4,626 in These 3 Stocks and Wait 5 Years
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- CJoe独孤求胜CJoe独孤求胜
  ·2022-08-25
  $Ocugen(OCGN)$go
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- CJoe独孤求胜CJoe独孤求胜
  ·2022-08-25
  $Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$go
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- CJoe独孤求胜CJoe独孤求胜
  ·2022-08-25
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  VTI: Passive Investors Face A Lost Decade
  SummaryThe VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better of
  VTI: Passive Investors Face A Lost Decade
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- CJoe独孤求胜CJoe独孤求胜
  ·2022-08-24
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- CJoe独孤求胜CJoe独孤求胜
  ·2022-08-24
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- CJoe独孤求胜CJoe独孤求胜
  ·2022-08-24
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- CJoe独孤求胜CJoe独孤求胜
  ·2022-08-24
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11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Want $1,000 in Passive Income? Invest $4,626 in These 3 Stocks and Wait 5 Years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2262812935","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These three companies are conservative and have a history of dividend increases.","content":"<div>\n<p>Building an income portfolio is a function of a couple of things. First, look at your financial goal and then work backward. In this case, let's say an investor wants to generate $1,000 in passive ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/25/want-1000-in-passive-income-invest-21700-in-these/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Want $1,000 in Passive Income? Invest $4,626 in These 3 Stocks and Wait 5 Years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWant $1,000 in Passive Income? Invest $4,626 in These 3 Stocks and Wait 5 Years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-26 11:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/25/want-1000-in-passive-income-invest-21700-in-these/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Building an income portfolio is a function of a couple of things. First, look at your financial goal and then work backward. In this case, let's say an investor wants to generate $1,000 in passive ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/25/want-1000-in-passive-income-invest-21700-in-these/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"O":"Realty Income Corp","DUK":"杜克能源"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/25/want-1000-in-passive-income-invest-21700-in-these/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2262812935","content_text":"Building an income portfolio is a function of a couple of things. First, look at your financial goal and then work backward. In this case, let's say an investor wants to generate $1,000 in passive income from three stocks in five years. The next step is to find three good stocks and then calculate how many shares to buy to generate that income. Theoretically it would take a smaller investment if we used a dividend reinvestment plan, but that complicates the math.The three stocks are Realty Income, STORE Capital and Duke Energy. I'll work through the math when discussing each one. Note that I am also choosing conservative names, which would be appropriate for an income investor.Triple-net lease REITs are highly stable income-generating businessesRealty Income is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on single-tenant real estate properties. It is a Dividend Aristocrat, and has been a stalwart performer through thick and thin. It leases properties to tenants under long-term triple-net lease contracts. These contracts generally last a long time and push most of the operational costs on to the tenant. The stock is currently trading at about $70.60 and pays an annual dividend of $2.97. Over five years, the stock should pay a total of $14.85 in dividends, assuming no cuts or increases. To generate $333 in income you would need 22.5 shares, which would cost $1,589.As a Dividend Aristocrat, the company has a long history of dividend increases, so chances are that the stock will generate more than $14.85 in dividends over the next five years.   During the COVID-19 pandemic, most REITs cut their dividends. Realty Income hiked its dividend three times in 2020. It should be a core holding in an income investor's portfolio.STORE Capital has a similar business model to Realty Income. It is a major holding of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. Like Realty Income, it largely focuses on tenants that are somewhat more insulated from the business cycle than most. STORE's typical tenants include fast-food and casual dining restaurants, child education centers, supermarkets, retail, and some manufacturing. Like Realty Income, the company was able to raise its dividend during the COVID-19 pandemic. Its business model is highly conservative, and it does a deep dive into the financials of its tenants. The stock is trading at about $27.50 and pays $1.54 in annual dividends. Assuming no cuts or increases, that should build to $7.70 in dividends over the next five years. To get $333 in income you would need 43.3 shares at a cost of $1,195.Regulated utilities are protected by the governmentDuke Energy is a regulated utility, which is another favorite for income investors. Duke provides electricity and natural gas service to the Southeast and parts of the Midwest. Regulated utilities are often granted monopoly rights for a territory in exchange for letting the regulators determine what they are permitted to charge. This prevents the utility from price gouging, and it also ensures that it can earn a return without getting into financial distress. Utilities have historically been considered some of the safest stocks given that demand is pretty constant and they face little competition. Duke is currently trading at about $110.50 per share. Duke pays an annual dividend of $4.02, which would amount to $20.10 over five years. To generate $333 in income you would need 16.6 shares which would cost about $1,843So, overall if you bought these three stocks, it would cost $4,626 to buy enough shares to generate $1,000 in income over the next five years. Given that these stocks have a history of dividend increases even during tough times, chances are the income would be more than $1,000.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"O":0.9,"DUK":0.9,"STOR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995322231,"gmtCreate":1661414084626,"gmtModify":1676536514443,"author":{"id":"3582446967606185","authorId":"3582446967606185","name":"CJoe独孤求胜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66412f507a36e05f200e03f927366f8a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582446967606185","idStr":"3582446967606185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OCGN\">$Ocugen(OCGN)$</a>go","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OCGN\">$Ocugen(OCGN)$</a>go","text":"$Ocugen(OCGN)$go","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62792249f9a89abff0399768a8f887c5","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995322231","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995322676,"gmtCreate":1661414060597,"gmtModify":1676536514439,"author":{"id":"3582446967606185","authorId":"3582446967606185","name":"CJoe独孤求胜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66412f507a36e05f200e03f927366f8a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582446967606185","idStr":"3582446967606185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CHWY\">$Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$</a>go","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CHWY\">$Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$</a>go","text":"$Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$go","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6aebd9c273ce7afe40906e3eb1b5e10c","width":"1080","height":"2511"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995322676","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995322166,"gmtCreate":1661413986357,"gmtModify":1676536514434,"author":{"id":"3582446967606185","authorId":"3582446967606185","name":"CJoe独孤求胜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66412f507a36e05f200e03f927366f8a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582446967606185","idStr":"3582446967606185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995322166","repostId":"1175427057","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175427057","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661410598,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175427057?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-25 14:56","market":"other","language":"en","title":"VTI: Passive Investors Face A Lost Decade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175427057","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better of","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better off in real terms by the year 2032.</li><li>Historically, investors who bought U.S. stocks at similar PE valuations as the VTI currently could expect to see long-term real returns of around 2-3% annually.</li><li>However, profit margin mean reversion and weaker real GDP growth suggest that future returns will be far lower than this.</li><li>The good news is that passive investors do not have to settle for such meager returns as there are several overseas markets that offer much stronger prospects.</li></ul><p>I last wrote about the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA:VTI) back in May 2021 when I argued that the market was in a &#39;3-sigma&#39; bubble and that rising inflation threatened to be the pin to burst it (<i>see ‘VTI: Rising Inflation May Burst This 3-Sigma Bubble’)</i>. While the VTI went on to rise a further 13% to its December peak, it has since given back all its gains, including the impact of dividend payments. It may pain passive investors to learn that even after the recent decline the VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better off in real terms by the year 2032 and subjecting them to significant volatility in the coming years.</p><p><b>The VTI ETF</b></p><p>The VTI tracks the performance of the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index which measures the total investable U.S. equities market. While the ETF has a similar composition as the SPY, it also included small- and mid-cap companies, and the underlying index has a larger market capitalization of USD44trn versus the S&amp;P500’s USD36trn. The VTI trades at even more extreme valuations relative to the S&amp;P500, while paying an even lower dividend yield.</p><p>The VTI is a popular ETF among buy-and-hold investors as it captures the entire U.S. market and charges an expense ratio of just 0.03% per year. The VTI is a favored market for followers of the Jack Bogle philosophy that &#39;time in the market beats timing the market&#39;. While this is a good rule of thumb to invest by for most people most of the time, it does not tell the full story. There appears to be a large gap between the returns that passive investors expect to achieve over the long term and the returns that are likely based on current valuations. For those disciplined investors who are committed to dollar cost averaging as stock valuations fall, this may not be a problem, but this is easier said than done. There is an overwhelming urge to sell during bear markets as the red ink piles up, and this is particularly the case if stock weakness occurs amid economic weakness and job security declines.</p><p><b>Valuations Are Still Extreme</b></p><p>The VTI&#39;s valuations have fallen somewhat since last year&#39;s peak, driven by a fall in equity prices and a rise in earnings. The trailing PE ratio now sits at 22x. The forward PE ratio (based on expectations of earnings over the next 12 months) sits at 18.9x, which may seem reasonable, particularly relative to the 2020 peak of 29.9x. Historically, investors who bought U.S. stocks at similar PE valuations could expect to see long-term real returns of around 2-3% annually. Considering the long-term average is around 6%, this is already low, but there are two reasons that suggests future returns are likely to be much lower than this, and quite likely negative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3ab64632e1f5546b71c5bf8e134e5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US Stocks: PE Ratio Vs Future 10-Year Annual Returns(Robert Shiller)</p><p><b>Profit Margins Are Unsustainably High:</b> I have written a number of articles about how unsustainably high U.S. profit margins are and how structural economic forces are likely to drive them lower over the long term (<i>see ‘SPX: Expect A Bear Market In Profit Margins’</i>). The current profit margin on the VTI is 10.2% which is significantly above its 10-year average of 8.5%. While data for the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index only goes back 10 years, data for the economy as a whole goes back to the 1940s and shows that profit margins are 60% above their long-term average. I fully expect to see profit margins revert to their long-term mean of 7% over the next decade, which would act as a 4-5% annual drag on equity prices assuming no change in the PE ratio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e0762399bd27a508aa286b12931511f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US Corporate Earnings, % of GDP(Bloomberg)</p><p><b>Real GDP Growth Will Be Much Lower:</b> Additionally, the 2-3% real returns that have been historically associated with current valuations have been supported by strong real GDP growth, which has averaged over 3%. Such growth rates will be extremely difficult to achieve going forward simply based on slowing population growth, with the working-age population no longer growing at all. When we add in the impact of weaker productivity growth as explained in ‘Brace For Sub-1% Long-Term Growth’, we will be lucky to achieve 1% growth over the next decade.</p><p>Taken together, an elevated PE ratio, unsustainably high profit margins, and a weak real GDP growth outlook suggest that the VTI should be expected to post negative returns over the next decade after taking into account inflation.</p><p><b>There Are Many Alternatives With Higher Return Prospects</b></p><p>The good news is that passive investors do not have to settle for such meagre returns as there are several overseas markets that offer much stronger prospects. As value investors GMO noted in their recent 7-year Asset Class Forecast, emerging market value stocks are now prices to return over 8% in real terms over the next 7 years. If emerging market stocks seem too risky, a long position here can be combined with U.S. Treasuries, which would help to reduce volatility and the risk of a large drawdown, while still providing returns far higher than the VTI. The U.S 10-year Treasury not only offers a higher yield than investors can expect to receive in the VTI, but it also comes with a track record of performing well during equity market weakness. This is likely to come in handy in preventing the urge to panic during any major equity market selloff.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9328cf20ef5b79bb94b886f0312a71d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>7-Year Real Asset Class Forecasts(GMO)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>VTI: Passive Investors Face A Lost Decade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVTI: Passive Investors Face A Lost Decade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-25 14:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536581-vti-etf-likely-underperform-inflation-over-next-decade><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better off in real terms by the year 2032.Historically, investors who bought U.S. stocks at similar PE ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536581-vti-etf-likely-underperform-inflation-over-next-decade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536581-vti-etf-likely-underperform-inflation-over-next-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175427057","content_text":"SummaryThe VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better off in real terms by the year 2032.Historically, investors who bought U.S. stocks at similar PE valuations as the VTI currently could expect to see long-term real returns of around 2-3% annually.However, profit margin mean reversion and weaker real GDP growth suggest that future returns will be far lower than this.The good news is that passive investors do not have to settle for such meager returns as there are several overseas markets that offer much stronger prospects.I last wrote about the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA:VTI) back in May 2021 when I argued that the market was in a '3-sigma' bubble and that rising inflation threatened to be the pin to burst it (see ‘VTI: Rising Inflation May Burst This 3-Sigma Bubble’). While the VTI went on to rise a further 13% to its December peak, it has since given back all its gains, including the impact of dividend payments. It may pain passive investors to learn that even after the recent decline the VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better off in real terms by the year 2032 and subjecting them to significant volatility in the coming years.The VTI ETFThe VTI tracks the performance of the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index which measures the total investable U.S. equities market. While the ETF has a similar composition as the SPY, it also included small- and mid-cap companies, and the underlying index has a larger market capitalization of USD44trn versus the S&P500’s USD36trn. The VTI trades at even more extreme valuations relative to the S&P500, while paying an even lower dividend yield.The VTI is a popular ETF among buy-and-hold investors as it captures the entire U.S. market and charges an expense ratio of just 0.03% per year. The VTI is a favored market for followers of the Jack Bogle philosophy that 'time in the market beats timing the market'. While this is a good rule of thumb to invest by for most people most of the time, it does not tell the full story. There appears to be a large gap between the returns that passive investors expect to achieve over the long term and the returns that are likely based on current valuations. For those disciplined investors who are committed to dollar cost averaging as stock valuations fall, this may not be a problem, but this is easier said than done. There is an overwhelming urge to sell during bear markets as the red ink piles up, and this is particularly the case if stock weakness occurs amid economic weakness and job security declines.Valuations Are Still ExtremeThe VTI's valuations have fallen somewhat since last year's peak, driven by a fall in equity prices and a rise in earnings. The trailing PE ratio now sits at 22x. The forward PE ratio (based on expectations of earnings over the next 12 months) sits at 18.9x, which may seem reasonable, particularly relative to the 2020 peak of 29.9x. Historically, investors who bought U.S. stocks at similar PE valuations could expect to see long-term real returns of around 2-3% annually. Considering the long-term average is around 6%, this is already low, but there are two reasons that suggests future returns are likely to be much lower than this, and quite likely negative.US Stocks: PE Ratio Vs Future 10-Year Annual Returns(Robert Shiller)Profit Margins Are Unsustainably High: I have written a number of articles about how unsustainably high U.S. profit margins are and how structural economic forces are likely to drive them lower over the long term (see ‘SPX: Expect A Bear Market In Profit Margins’). The current profit margin on the VTI is 10.2% which is significantly above its 10-year average of 8.5%. While data for the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index only goes back 10 years, data for the economy as a whole goes back to the 1940s and shows that profit margins are 60% above their long-term average. I fully expect to see profit margins revert to their long-term mean of 7% over the next decade, which would act as a 4-5% annual drag on equity prices assuming no change in the PE ratio.US Corporate Earnings, % of GDP(Bloomberg)Real GDP Growth Will Be Much Lower: Additionally, the 2-3% real returns that have been historically associated with current valuations have been supported by strong real GDP growth, which has averaged over 3%. Such growth rates will be extremely difficult to achieve going forward simply based on slowing population growth, with the working-age population no longer growing at all. When we add in the impact of weaker productivity growth as explained in ‘Brace For Sub-1% Long-Term Growth’, we will be lucky to achieve 1% growth over the next decade.Taken together, an elevated PE ratio, unsustainably high profit margins, and a weak real GDP growth outlook suggest that the VTI should be expected to post negative returns over the next decade after taking into account inflation.There Are Many Alternatives With Higher Return ProspectsThe good news is that passive investors do not have to settle for such meagre returns as there are several overseas markets that offer much stronger prospects. As value investors GMO noted in their recent 7-year Asset Class Forecast, emerging market value stocks are now prices to return over 8% in real terms over the next 7 years. If emerging market stocks seem too risky, a long position here can be combined with U.S. Treasuries, which would help to reduce volatility and the risk of a large drawdown, while still providing returns far higher than the VTI. The U.S 10-year Treasury not only offers a higher yield than investors can expect to receive in the VTI, but it also comes with a track record of performing well during equity market weakness. This is likely to come in handy in preventing the urge to panic during any major equity market selloff.7-Year Real Asset Class Forecasts(GMO)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VTI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992216478,"gmtCreate":1661316570296,"gmtModify":1676536496353,"author":{"id":"3582446967606185","authorId":"3582446967606185","name":"CJoe独孤求胜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66412f507a36e05f200e03f927366f8a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582446967606185","idStr":"3582446967606185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CIH\">$China Index Holdings Ltd(CIH)$</a>go","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CIH\">$China Index Holdings Ltd(CIH)$</a>go","text":"$China Index Holdings Ltd(CIH)$go","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6eb8095a3cf21f22a188d4fe83862f11","width":"1080","height":"2511"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992216478","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992216857,"gmtCreate":1661316497782,"gmtModify":1676536496342,"author":{"id":"3582446967606185","authorId":"3582446967606185","name":"CJoe独孤求胜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66412f507a36e05f200e03f927366f8a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582446967606185","idStr":"3582446967606185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WMT\">$Wal-Mart(WMT)$</a>go","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WMT\">$Wal-Mart(WMT)$</a>go","text":"$Wal-Mart(WMT)$go","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b6d5f1f878059cee9a6ab06ca77c3977","width":"1080","height":"2511"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992216857","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992216344,"gmtCreate":1661316481290,"gmtModify":1676536496337,"author":{"id":"3582446967606185","authorId":"3582446967606185","name":"CJoe独孤求胜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66412f507a36e05f200e03f927366f8a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582446967606185","idStr":"3582446967606185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OCGN\">$Ocugen(OCGN)$</a>go","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OCGN\">$Ocugen(OCGN)$</a>go","text":"$Ocugen(OCGN)$go","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f96e4c1e88983e00e8d6068e0eb7024b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992216344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992218908,"gmtCreate":1661316420206,"gmtModify":1676536496311,"author":{"id":"3582446967606185","authorId":"3582446967606185","name":"CJoe独孤求胜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66412f507a36e05f200e03f927366f8a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582446967606185","idStr":"3582446967606185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992218908","repostId":"1172549736","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}