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- DanielLau16DanielLau16
  ·2021-06-14
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  The Signal of Real Interest Rates: Time to Buy Gold?
  有分析师表示，美国的真实利率为正时，黄金往往表现不佳，尤其是在真实利率向下的时候，黄金往往能走出一波不错的行情。
  The Signal of Real Interest Rates: Time to Buy Gold?
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- DanielLau16DanielLau16
  ·2021-06-14
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  Haitong Strategy: The stock market begins to desensitize to inflation
  核心结论：①中美最新的通胀数据均超预期上升，但A股和美股均不跌反涨，显示股市对通胀开始脱敏，下半年通胀压力下降。②历史上牛市中指数高点略提前于盈利高点，本轮ROE高点预计在21Q4-22Q1，结合年度
  Haitong Strategy: The stock market begins to desensitize to inflation
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- DanielLau16DanielLau16
  ·2021-06-14
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}\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Signal of Real Interest Rates: Time to Buy Gold?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0671078c90aba28be5e242e5b75ca4a0\" tg-width=\"1399\" tg-height=\"752\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Some analysts at Zerohedge believe that when the real interest rate in the United States is positive, gold tends to perform poorly, especially when the real interest rate goes down, gold can often get out of a good market.</p><p>The real interest rate here is the inflation-adjusted yield calculated based on the three-month U.S. Treasury Bond yield minus the year-over-year CPI.</p><p>In addition, the real interest rate can't reflect the magnitude of the change, it can only be said to be a directional indicator.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632838\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c307757575ffe3d6ca9295ced646627f","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632838","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143785481","content_text":"有Zerohedge的分析师认为，美国的实际利率为正时，黄金往往表现不佳，尤其是在真实利率向下的时候，黄金往往能走出一波不错的行情。\n这里的真实利率是根据三个月的美国国债收益率减去同比CPI来计算的通胀调整收益率。\n另外，真实利率并不能反映变动的幅度，它只能说是一个方向性指标。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"DUST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2030,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184362924,"gmtCreate":1623684993768,"gmtModify":1704208728271,"author":{"id":"3586663217774658","authorId":"3586663217774658","name":"DanielLau16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede1462cf07466236d71548b855c6759","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586663217774658","idStr":"3586663217774658"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184362924","repostId":"1100801009","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100801009","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"侃投资/话人生/广交友","home_visible":1,"media_name":"股市荀策","id":"1012219063","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0945e49df9384880a2a850c7de1463be"},"pubTimestamp":1623648594,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100801009?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:29","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Haitong Strategy: The stock market begins to desensitize to inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100801009","media":"股市荀策","summary":"核心结论：①中美最新的通胀数据均超预期上升，但A股和美股均不跌反涨，显示股市对通胀开始脱敏，下半年通胀压力下降。②历史上牛市中指数高点略提前于盈利高点，本轮ROE高点预计在21Q4-22Q1，结合年度","content":"<p><b>Core conclusions:</b>① The latest inflation data in China and the United States both rose more than expected, but both A-shares and US stocks rose instead of falling, indicating that the stock market began to desensitize to inflation, and inflationary pressure declined in the second half of the year. ② In history, the high point of the index in the bull market is slightly ahead of the high point of profit. The high point of this round of ROE is expected to be 21Q4-22Q1. Combined with the annual amplitude law, the index is expected to hit a new high in the year. ③ The leading high-quality companies represented by Mao Index are still well allocated and upright. With rapid profit growth and compliance with policy directions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing is more resilient, surprisingly.</p><p><b>Stocks are beginning to desensitize to inflation</b></p><p>The recently announced year-on-year growth rate of my country's PPI in May exceeded 9%, and the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI exceeded 5%, both of which rose sharply from the previous month and exceeded everyone's expectations. However, the performance of the capital market is quite different from the previous month. This month, A-shares and U.S. stocks rose instead of falling after inflation rose more than expected again. We believe that the time when the stock market was most worried about inflation has passed, and the A-share index is expected to hit a new high this year with the support of fundamentals.</p><p><b>1. Both A-shares and U.S. stocks have begun to desensitize to inflation</b></p><p><b>Stock market concerns about inflation are slowing down at the margin.</b>On June 9, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in May was 9%, which was the third highest reading since the year-on-year growth rate of PPI was born in 1996, second only to 10% in July 2008 and August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI has continued to exceed expectations. We compare the actual released data with the consensus expectation of wind. In January this year, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI was 0.3%, and the consensus expectation of wind was 0.29%, a difference of 0.01 percentage points. The difference rose to 0.24 percentage points, and from March to May it was 1.09/0.59/0.74 percentage points respectively. In the last round of PPI rising cycle (16-17 years), the year-on-year growth rate of PPI also continued to exceed expectations. The largest error between the actual value and the predicted value was at the end of 16 years, which was also 1 percentage point. Although the year-on-year growth rate of PPI is still exceeding expectations, the stock market's concerns about inflation are slowing down marginally. Inflation data for the past three months were released on April 9, May 11 and June 9, all at 9:30 a.m. Observing the time-sharing chart of the Shanghai Composite Index, we can find that the market's reaction to the negative factor of PPI is passivating:</p><p><ul><li>April 9: The March PPI announced that day was 4.4%, exceeding wind's consensus expectation by 1.09 percentage points. The stock market fell unilaterally after the opening, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.5% that day at the close;</p><p></li><li>May 11: The April PPI announced that day was 6.8%, exceeding wind's consensus forecast by 0.59 percentage points. The stock market fell after the opening, and turned from falling to rising after 10:30. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.07% that day.</p><p></li><li>June 9: The May PPI announced that day was 9%, exceeding wind's consensus forecast by 0.74 percentage points. However, the stock market rose at the opening, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% at the close.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d43a1b6f87fc189c51f50edfb57acf9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. stocks, like A-shares, have begun to blunt their response to high inflation. In the past two months, the CPI in the United States has also begun to rise sharply. In March, the CPI growth rate was 2.6% year-on-year, 4.2% in April, and 5% in May, the highest growth rate since August 2008; The year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI excluding food and energy was still 1.6% in March, jumped to 3% in April, and rose 3.8% in May, a new high since 1992. However, the stock market's reaction to inflation data is passivating. On the day the data was released on May 12, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes fell by more than 2%. However, after the CPI was released on June 10, the aforementioned indexes both rose slightly, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% and the Nasdaq up 0.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f2b782e453c8f7333af5d89de462a27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Inflationary pressures declined in the second half of the year</b>In fact, this year's inflationary pressure itself is not as great as it seems. The 9% year-on-year growth rate of PPI in May seems to be very high, but it is largely due to the low base in the same period last year. The two-year annualized growth rate after excluding the base effect is actually only 2.5%. Looking back at the two rounds of inflation cycles in 2006-08 and 2009-11, the year-on-year upward cycle of my country's PPI lasted about two years on average. The upward trend of PPI in the early stage was mainly due to abundant liquidity, while the continued upward trend of inflation in the later period benefited from the improvement of fundamentals. This round of PPI began to rebound year-on-year from the low of-3.7% in May 2020, and it has been going on for about a year. From the perspective of time and space, the first wave of liquidity-driven price increases may come to an end. Wind's unanimous expectation shows that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will gradually decline in the second half of the year, with the two-year annualized growth rate around 1.5%.</p><p>When will the second wave of inflation rise come? We think it may not be until the first half of next year. Drawing lessons from 2009-11, when the recovery of economies around the world from the crisis was strong and basically synchronized, so there was only a rest of more than half a year between the first wave and the second wave of rise in commodities, that is, the first wave of rise started from the end of 2008. It lasted until the beginning of 2010, and the second wave of rise started from 10Q3. The global economy under the impact of this epidemic has also experienced the process of \"crisis → water release → recovery\" as in 2009-11. However, due to different epidemic prevention and control measures and virus mutation in various countries, the economic recovery of various countries in the post-epidemic era is slow and unsynchronized. Therefore, the rest period after the first wave of commodity rises may be longer than in 2009-11. This time, my country has the best epidemic prevention measures and the fastest recovery. In the past 20 years, my country has been the only country in the world that has achieved positive GDP growth. The epidemic prevention policies of developed countries such as the United States are not as effective as my country's, and the pace of recovery is slightly lagging behind. The GDP growth rate in 2020 is negative, but the World Bank predicts that the two-year annualized growth rate of U.S. GDP in 2021 will roughly return to pre-epidemic levels. In most emerging market countries, due to backward epidemic prevention policies and repeated epidemics, the World Bank predicts that the two-year annualized GDP growth rate in 20-21 will only be around 0%, and the economic growth rate may not really start to rise until 2022 and beyond. The current misalignment of the recovery makes the current round of global recovery drag on longer, so the second phase of inflationary pressure may not be reflected until the first half of next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e4aff9cdd327f629ac9684a72efd2db\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b4c14a26cc2f8af3541518dd20b86c6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The key to the future trend of A shares depends on profitability</b></p><p><b>Bull highs are more correlated with earnings highs.</b>Now that the stage of most worry about inflation is about to pass, what is the main contradiction this year? We think it's better to return to fundamentals. Looking back at history, the high point of the bull market has a stronger correlation with the high point of corporate profits. For details, you can look at the year-on-year growth rate of net profit and ROE indicators. Because the year-on-year growth rate of A-share net profit is often disturbed by base period factors, the year-on-year high point of A-share single-quarter net profit is often inconsistent with the high point of the stock market index. The annualized year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit in the past two years is consistent with the high point of the index. In addition, ROE has a strong correlation with the high point of the index. Specifically: During the bull market from 05/6 to 07/10, the high points of the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 were on 07/10, while the year-on-year high of A-share single-quarter net profit was 414% of 06Q4. In the past two years, A-share single-quarter net profit The peak of annualized year-on-year growth rate was 192% in 07Q4, and the peak of all A-share ROE was in 07Q4. During the bull market from 08/10 to 10/11, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3478 points in August 2009, then began to fluctuate at a high level to 10/11, and then began to decline. The year-on-year high of quarterly net profit was 560% of 09Q4, the annualized year-on-year growth rate of A-share single-quarter net profit in the past two years was 207% of 10Q4, the high ROE was in 10Q4, and the high ROE of small and medium-sized board index also appeared in 10Q4. During the bull market from 12/12 to 15/06, the GEM began a structural bull market. The annualized year-on-year growth rate of net profit of the GEM index in a single quarter appeared in 15Q4. However, due to deleveraging factors such as checking capital allocation, the GEM index reached a high point in 15/06. Under the catalysis of good performance, the GEM index rebounded significantly in 15Q4.</p><p><b>The high point of this profit cycle is expected to be 21Q4-22Q1.</b>First of all, from the perspective of the time and space law of the historical profit cycle, this profit cycle has not yet been completed. In terms of time, described by the cumulative year-on-year growth rate or ROE of A-share net profit attributable to the parent company, A-shares have experienced five complete profit cycles since 2002, each cycle lasting for an average of 39 months, of which the upward cycle lasts for an average of 6-7 quarters. In this round of profit cycle, if we look at the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of A-share net profit attributable to the parent company, 20Q1 bottomed out, 20Q2 began to rebound, and only rebounded for 4 quarters by 21Q1; If you look at ROE (TTM), 20Q2 bottomed out and Q3 began to rebound. It has only lasted for 3 quarters so far, and the time has not yet passed. Based on time calculations, we expect the high point of this profit cycle to be 21Q4-22Q1. In terms of space, the two-year annualized growth rate of all A net profit attributable to the parent company in 21Q1 is only 8%, which is equivalent to the level of 17Q2. Compared with the compound growth rate of 16% in 18Q2, there is still a lot of room. The ROE of all A shares in 21Q1 is 9.2%, which is equivalent to the level of 2019 and 17Q1, and there is still a lot of room.</p><p>In terms of specific forecasts, our forecasting method is to estimate the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company and the corresponding ROE of A shares this year based on the proportion of profits in the first quarter to the whole year. First of all, since asset impairment losses including goodwill are mainly reflected in the statements of the fourth quarter of each year, we need to make up for this part of the losses to analyze the proportion of profits before impairment losses in each quarter. This new caliber profit is similar to the concept of EBIT. The profit before impairment loss accounted for about 20%, 25%, 25%, and 30% in the four quarters of the whole year. This proportion was very stable except for 2008/2009/2020. Therefore, we can roughly predict the growth rate for the whole year by dividing the profit before impairment loss in 21Q1 by the proportion of the first quarter. On this basis, we need to further predict the impact of asset impairment losses on single-quarter profits in the fourth quarter. Looking back at history, we can find that the scale of asset impairment losses has been very large since 2018, with 300 + billion yuan in 2018, nearly 500 billion yuan in 2019, and falling back to 400 + billion yuan in 2020, which is basically equivalent to the profit in a single quarter. In 18 years, due to domestic deleveraging and Sino-US trade friction, many enterprises accrued a large amount of goodwill impairment losses in that year, that is, at the micro level, due to the poor performance in that year, listed companies had the motivation to further lower the performance of that year to increase the performance of the following year. The same logic should appear in 2020. After all, many companies suffered losses last year, and companies can take advantage of the impact of the epidemic to release negative factors in their statements. However, we saw that the overall impairment losses last year were not as good as in 2019, which may mean that potential impairment losses can be used There may not be so many assets that are impaired (such as goodwill). Therefore, for this year's impairment loss forecast, we conservatively predict that this year's amount will be equal to last year's amount. It is estimated that this year's net profit attributable to the parent company will grow by more than 30%, corresponding to the two-year annualized growth rate of 17 +%; After excluding the financial two oils, the net profit of all A-shares attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by more than 45% year-on-year, and the two-year annualized growth rate is 30 +%. The actual growth rate announced in the future may exceed expectations due to the error term of asset impairment losses. Based on this, we estimate that the ROE (TTM) of all A shares corresponding to the three quarters of 21Q2-Q4 will be 8.8-9.0%, 9.0-9.2% and 9.5-9.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bada807b63fd2b6fbecd9e29e18bcb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef2b3b099ac8377c86ca2a384acf06f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Coping strategies: follow the trend</b></p><p><b>A-shares are expected to hit new highs during the year.</b>As the most worrying phase of inflation passes, earnings will become the main driving force of the market, and we judge that corporate earnings will continue to rise this year. At the beginning of 2019, we proposed that the Shanghai Composite Index 2440 points on January 4, 2019 was the starting point of this bull market, and this bull market is expected to last for three years. At the same time, we proposed that the bull market has three stages, with different driving forces and characteristics. This round of bull market has been a bull market gestation period driven by funds in 19 years. In 20 years, the market has entered a bull market outbreak period driven by fundamentals and funds. In 21 years, the market is expected to enter a bubble period driven by fundamentals and emotions. At present, we judge that the profit is still on the rise; In terms of sentiment, we track sentiment from three dimensions: PE/PB, price comparison of major assets and trading indicators. The current market sentiment is about 60-65 degrees; In terms of liquidity, we believe that this year's monetary policy is likely to remain reasonably sufficient and liquidity neutral. Therefore, on the whole, the overall pattern of the bull market has not changed and the bull market has not yet finished. Statistics on the amplitude of the major A-share stock indexes in each year from 2000 to 2020 (the increase of the highest price relative to the lowest price during the year). Taking the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 as examples, the annual amplitude is basically around 25%-30%. In a bull market or bear market, the amplitude will be slightly higher than 60%. So far this year (as of 20210614, the same below), the amplitude of the Shanghai Composite Index/CSI 300 is only 12%/21%. The low point of the Shanghai Composite Index this year is 3,328 points on March 9, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is 4,883 points on March 25, and the Wind All A is 5,071 points on March 9. If the previous low point is valid, then refer to the volatility range of historical stock indexes, and the market is expected to hit a new high this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/977d2db1af801ea34b7b77b1f0797f0a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The market value structure is surprisingly upright, and the industry structure is deployed with intelligent manufacturing.</b>Since 2016, individual stocks and funds in A-shares have shown Matthew effect. In terms of individual stocks, we use the absolute value of the standard deviation/mean of the annual rise and fall of individual stocks to measure the dispersion of the rise and fall of individual stocks. From 2000 to 15, the average dispersion of the rise and fall of A-share stocks was 1.9, and since 2016 (as of 21/06/14, the same below) rapidly expanded to 3.9. In terms of funds, the average dispersion of changes in fund net value has increased from 0.68 in 2006-2015 to 0.98 since 2016. Moreover, the trend of fund size concentrating to the head is very significant. At present, the top 10% of funds account for 60% of the total fund size. The reason behind it is that the registration system of A shares and the institutionalization + internationalization of A shares are accelerating, and this Matthew effect will continue to strengthen in the future, similar to the US stock market after the 1990s. This is an important factor that cannot be ignored when carrying out the market value structure and industry structure layout.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b8377aa8411262d7bb3e0aa5ba2674\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of market value structure, it is surprisingly upright. According to the total market value, we divide A shares into three echelons of \"more than 80 billion/20-80 billion/less than 20 billion\". The number of stocks in the three echelons accounts for 4%/13%/83% respectively, and the market value accounts for 44%/27%/29%. The first echelon, the super-large market capitalization group represented by the Mao Index, is a high-quality leader in various industries and still has allocation value, that is, \"keeping integrity\". From the perspective of profit valuation ratio and new fund allocation preference, this year's second echelon of mid-to-large markets has better cost performance, which is so-called \"surprising\". We think the sharp decline in the Mao Index after the Spring Festival is just a self-correction of the price/performance ratio. At present, the Mao Index has a trend of US stocks. Among the northbound capital positions, the constituent stocks of the Mao Index also account for 47.7%. Drawing lessons from the characteristics of the US stock trend, this year may be in a wide range of shocks. With the epidemic under control and the economy gradually getting on the right track in the post-epidemic era, the relative advantages of ultra-large-cap stocks represented by the Mao Index in fundamentals will not be as extreme as last year. The annualized growth rate is 15%, the current PE (TTM, overall method, the same below) is 30 times, the market value of medium and large stocks (total market value 20-80 billion) is 19% and 28 times respectively, and the small market value (below 20 billion) is 6% and 50 times. For details, see \"The Way Out for Mao Index Worries-20210426\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5b8e653ec1477016e48ffb83db9cac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the industry, intelligent manufacturing is expected to become the new main line. From an industry perspective, the most prominent of the aforementioned second echelon (20-80 billion) is intelligent manufacturing-related industries. There are three logics for attaching importance to intelligent manufacturing: First, the fundamentals of intelligent manufacturing are stronger. Technologies such as 5G and new energy are gradually applied to promote the growth of intelligent manufacturing performance; The epidemic has led to the restructuring of the global manufacturing industry chain, and Chinese manufacturing has taken advantage of the situation to upgrade; During the stage of moderate inflation, manufacturing profits expand. Second, policies support the rapid rise of intelligent manufacturing. The 14th Five-Year Plan focuses on building a modern industrial system. Third, institutions represented by funds do not have a high allocation of intelligent manufacturing. In 21Q1, the intelligent manufacturing industry accounted for only 26.6% of the fund's heavyweight stocks, while the high point in 20Q2 was 32.3%, which is still slightly underweighted. For details, please refer to the previous reports \"The Epidemic Accelerates the Upgrading of China's Manufacturing-China's Intelligent Manufacturing Series 1-20210319\", \"China's Intelligent Manufacturing Series 2-20210402\", \"Looking at the Prospects of Intelligent Manufacturing from the Technology Clock-China's Intelligent Manufacturing Series 3-20210414\", \"Moderate Inflation Conducts Manufacturing Profit Expansion-China's Intelligent Manufacturing Series 4-20210429\", \"China's Intelligent Manufacturing Series: Both Wisdom and Courage, Creating the Future-20210511\", \"Key Sub-Areas of Intelligent Manufacturing Series 5-20210528\". Along the main line of \"China's Intelligent Manufacturing\", Haitong Strategy and the industry have sorted out investment opportunities in related fields of intelligent manufacturing. See Table 2 for specific targets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8b2519eefe59f94c4525d08fbeb40b3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff79edef1d8e1b39efffeb27c1b0163\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Inflation continues to rise sharply, and the investment clock enters a period of stagflation ahead of schedule.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Haitong Strategy: The stock market begins to desensitize to inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHaitong Strategy: The stock market begins to desensitize to inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012219063\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/0945e49df9384880a2a850c7de1463be);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">股市荀策 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Core conclusions:</b>① The latest inflation data in China and the United States both rose more than expected, but both A-shares and US stocks rose instead of falling, indicating that the stock market began to desensitize to inflation, and inflationary pressure declined in the second half of the year. ② In history, the high point of the index in the bull market is slightly ahead of the high point of profit. The high point of this round of ROE is expected to be 21Q4-22Q1. Combined with the annual amplitude law, the index is expected to hit a new high in the year. ③ The leading high-quality companies represented by Mao Index are still well allocated and upright. With rapid profit growth and compliance with policy directions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing is more resilient, surprisingly.</p><p><b>Stocks are beginning to desensitize to inflation</b></p><p>The recently announced year-on-year growth rate of my country's PPI in May exceeded 9%, and the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI exceeded 5%, both of which rose sharply from the previous month and exceeded everyone's expectations. However, the performance of the capital market is quite different from the previous month. This month, A-shares and U.S. stocks rose instead of falling after inflation rose more than expected again. We believe that the time when the stock market was most worried about inflation has passed, and the A-share index is expected to hit a new high this year with the support of fundamentals.</p><p><b>1. Both A-shares and U.S. stocks have begun to desensitize to inflation</b></p><p><b>Stock market concerns about inflation are slowing down at the margin.</b>On June 9, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in May was 9%, which was the third highest reading since the year-on-year growth rate of PPI was born in 1996, second only to 10% in July 2008 and August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI has continued to exceed expectations. We compare the actual released data with the consensus expectation of wind. In January this year, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI was 0.3%, and the consensus expectation of wind was 0.29%, a difference of 0.01 percentage points. The difference rose to 0.24 percentage points, and from March to May it was 1.09/0.59/0.74 percentage points respectively. In the last round of PPI rising cycle (16-17 years), the year-on-year growth rate of PPI also continued to exceed expectations. The largest error between the actual value and the predicted value was at the end of 16 years, which was also 1 percentage point. Although the year-on-year growth rate of PPI is still exceeding expectations, the stock market's concerns about inflation are slowing down marginally. Inflation data for the past three months were released on April 9, May 11 and June 9, all at 9:30 a.m. Observing the time-sharing chart of the Shanghai Composite Index, we can find that the market's reaction to the negative factor of PPI is passivating:</p><p><ul><li>April 9: The March PPI announced that day was 4.4%, exceeding wind's consensus expectation by 1.09 percentage points. The stock market fell unilaterally after the opening, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.5% that day at the close;</p><p></li><li>May 11: The April PPI announced that day was 6.8%, exceeding wind's consensus forecast by 0.59 percentage points. The stock market fell after the opening, and turned from falling to rising after 10:30. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.07% that day.</p><p></li><li>June 9: The May PPI announced that day was 9%, exceeding wind's consensus forecast by 0.74 percentage points. However, the stock market rose at the opening, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% at the close.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d43a1b6f87fc189c51f50edfb57acf9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. stocks, like A-shares, have begun to blunt their response to high inflation. In the past two months, the CPI in the United States has also begun to rise sharply. In March, the CPI growth rate was 2.6% year-on-year, 4.2% in April, and 5% in May, the highest growth rate since August 2008; The year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI excluding food and energy was still 1.6% in March, jumped to 3% in April, and rose 3.8% in May, a new high since 1992. However, the stock market's reaction to inflation data is passivating. On the day the data was released on May 12, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes fell by more than 2%. However, after the CPI was released on June 10, the aforementioned indexes both rose slightly, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% and the Nasdaq up 0.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f2b782e453c8f7333af5d89de462a27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Inflationary pressures declined in the second half of the year</b>In fact, this year's inflationary pressure itself is not as great as it seems. The 9% year-on-year growth rate of PPI in May seems to be very high, but it is largely due to the low base in the same period last year. The two-year annualized growth rate after excluding the base effect is actually only 2.5%. Looking back at the two rounds of inflation cycles in 2006-08 and 2009-11, the year-on-year upward cycle of my country's PPI lasted about two years on average. The upward trend of PPI in the early stage was mainly due to abundant liquidity, while the continued upward trend of inflation in the later period benefited from the improvement of fundamentals. This round of PPI began to rebound year-on-year from the low of-3.7% in May 2020, and it has been going on for about a year. From the perspective of time and space, the first wave of liquidity-driven price increases may come to an end. Wind's unanimous expectation shows that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will gradually decline in the second half of the year, with the two-year annualized growth rate around 1.5%.</p><p>When will the second wave of inflation rise come? We think it may not be until the first half of next year. Drawing lessons from 2009-11, when the recovery of economies around the world from the crisis was strong and basically synchronized, so there was only a rest of more than half a year between the first wave and the second wave of rise in commodities, that is, the first wave of rise started from the end of 2008. It lasted until the beginning of 2010, and the second wave of rise started from 10Q3. The global economy under the impact of this epidemic has also experienced the process of \"crisis → water release → recovery\" as in 2009-11. However, due to different epidemic prevention and control measures and virus mutation in various countries, the economic recovery of various countries in the post-epidemic era is slow and unsynchronized. Therefore, the rest period after the first wave of commodity rises may be longer than in 2009-11. This time, my country has the best epidemic prevention measures and the fastest recovery. In the past 20 years, my country has been the only country in the world that has achieved positive GDP growth. The epidemic prevention policies of developed countries such as the United States are not as effective as my country's, and the pace of recovery is slightly lagging behind. The GDP growth rate in 2020 is negative, but the World Bank predicts that the two-year annualized growth rate of U.S. GDP in 2021 will roughly return to pre-epidemic levels. In most emerging market countries, due to backward epidemic prevention policies and repeated epidemics, the World Bank predicts that the two-year annualized GDP growth rate in 20-21 will only be around 0%, and the economic growth rate may not really start to rise until 2022 and beyond. The current misalignment of the recovery makes the current round of global recovery drag on longer, so the second phase of inflationary pressure may not be reflected until the first half of next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e4aff9cdd327f629ac9684a72efd2db\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b4c14a26cc2f8af3541518dd20b86c6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The key to the future trend of A shares depends on profitability</b></p><p><b>Bull highs are more correlated with earnings highs.</b>Now that the stage of most worry about inflation is about to pass, what is the main contradiction this year? We think it's better to return to fundamentals. Looking back at history, the high point of the bull market has a stronger correlation with the high point of corporate profits. For details, you can look at the year-on-year growth rate of net profit and ROE indicators. Because the year-on-year growth rate of A-share net profit is often disturbed by base period factors, the year-on-year high point of A-share single-quarter net profit is often inconsistent with the high point of the stock market index. The annualized year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit in the past two years is consistent with the high point of the index. In addition, ROE has a strong correlation with the high point of the index. Specifically: During the bull market from 05/6 to 07/10, the high points of the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 were on 07/10, while the year-on-year high of A-share single-quarter net profit was 414% of 06Q4. In the past two years, A-share single-quarter net profit The peak of annualized year-on-year growth rate was 192% in 07Q4, and the peak of all A-share ROE was in 07Q4. During the bull market from 08/10 to 10/11, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3478 points in August 2009, then began to fluctuate at a high level to 10/11, and then began to decline. The year-on-year high of quarterly net profit was 560% of 09Q4, the annualized year-on-year growth rate of A-share single-quarter net profit in the past two years was 207% of 10Q4, the high ROE was in 10Q4, and the high ROE of small and medium-sized board index also appeared in 10Q4. During the bull market from 12/12 to 15/06, the GEM began a structural bull market. The annualized year-on-year growth rate of net profit of the GEM index in a single quarter appeared in 15Q4. However, due to deleveraging factors such as checking capital allocation, the GEM index reached a high point in 15/06. Under the catalysis of good performance, the GEM index rebounded significantly in 15Q4.</p><p><b>The high point of this profit cycle is expected to be 21Q4-22Q1.</b>First of all, from the perspective of the time and space law of the historical profit cycle, this profit cycle has not yet been completed. In terms of time, described by the cumulative year-on-year growth rate or ROE of A-share net profit attributable to the parent company, A-shares have experienced five complete profit cycles since 2002, each cycle lasting for an average of 39 months, of which the upward cycle lasts for an average of 6-7 quarters. In this round of profit cycle, if we look at the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of A-share net profit attributable to the parent company, 20Q1 bottomed out, 20Q2 began to rebound, and only rebounded for 4 quarters by 21Q1; If you look at ROE (TTM), 20Q2 bottomed out and Q3 began to rebound. It has only lasted for 3 quarters so far, and the time has not yet passed. Based on time calculations, we expect the high point of this profit cycle to be 21Q4-22Q1. In terms of space, the two-year annualized growth rate of all A net profit attributable to the parent company in 21Q1 is only 8%, which is equivalent to the level of 17Q2. Compared with the compound growth rate of 16% in 18Q2, there is still a lot of room. The ROE of all A shares in 21Q1 is 9.2%, which is equivalent to the level of 2019 and 17Q1, and there is still a lot of room.</p><p>In terms of specific forecasts, our forecasting method is to estimate the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company and the corresponding ROE of A shares this year based on the proportion of profits in the first quarter to the whole year. First of all, since asset impairment losses including goodwill are mainly reflected in the statements of the fourth quarter of each year, we need to make up for this part of the losses to analyze the proportion of profits before impairment losses in each quarter. This new caliber profit is similar to the concept of EBIT. The profit before impairment loss accounted for about 20%, 25%, 25%, and 30% in the four quarters of the whole year. This proportion was very stable except for 2008/2009/2020. Therefore, we can roughly predict the growth rate for the whole year by dividing the profit before impairment loss in 21Q1 by the proportion of the first quarter. On this basis, we need to further predict the impact of asset impairment losses on single-quarter profits in the fourth quarter. Looking back at history, we can find that the scale of asset impairment losses has been very large since 2018, with 300 + billion yuan in 2018, nearly 500 billion yuan in 2019, and falling back to 400 + billion yuan in 2020, which is basically equivalent to the profit in a single quarter. In 18 years, due to domestic deleveraging and Sino-US trade friction, many enterprises accrued a large amount of goodwill impairment losses in that year, that is, at the micro level, due to the poor performance in that year, listed companies had the motivation to further lower the performance of that year to increase the performance of the following year. The same logic should appear in 2020. After all, many companies suffered losses last year, and companies can take advantage of the impact of the epidemic to release negative factors in their statements. However, we saw that the overall impairment losses last year were not as good as in 2019, which may mean that potential impairment losses can be used There may not be so many assets that are impaired (such as goodwill). Therefore, for this year's impairment loss forecast, we conservatively predict that this year's amount will be equal to last year's amount. It is estimated that this year's net profit attributable to the parent company will grow by more than 30%, corresponding to the two-year annualized growth rate of 17 +%; After excluding the financial two oils, the net profit of all A-shares attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by more than 45% year-on-year, and the two-year annualized growth rate is 30 +%. The actual growth rate announced in the future may exceed expectations due to the error term of asset impairment losses. Based on this, we estimate that the ROE (TTM) of all A shares corresponding to the three quarters of 21Q2-Q4 will be 8.8-9.0%, 9.0-9.2% and 9.5-9.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bada807b63fd2b6fbecd9e29e18bcb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef2b3b099ac8377c86ca2a384acf06f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Coping strategies: follow the trend</b></p><p><b>A-shares are expected to hit new highs during the year.</b>As the most worrying phase of inflation passes, earnings will become the main driving force of the market, and we judge that corporate earnings will continue to rise this year. At the beginning of 2019, we proposed that the Shanghai Composite Index 2440 points on January 4, 2019 was the starting point of this bull market, and this bull market is expected to last for three years. At the same time, we proposed that the bull market has three stages, with different driving forces and characteristics. This round of bull market has been a bull market gestation period driven by funds in 19 years. In 20 years, the market has entered a bull market outbreak period driven by fundamentals and funds. In 21 years, the market is expected to enter a bubble period driven by fundamentals and emotions. At present, we judge that the profit is still on the rise; In terms of sentiment, we track sentiment from three dimensions: PE/PB, price comparison of major assets and trading indicators. The current market sentiment is about 60-65 degrees; In terms of liquidity, we believe that this year's monetary policy is likely to remain reasonably sufficient and liquidity neutral. Therefore, on the whole, the overall pattern of the bull market has not changed and the bull market has not yet finished. Statistics on the amplitude of the major A-share stock indexes in each year from 2000 to 2020 (the increase of the highest price relative to the lowest price during the year). Taking the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 as examples, the annual amplitude is basically around 25%-30%. In a bull market or bear market, the amplitude will be slightly higher than 60%. So far this year (as of 20210614, the same below), the amplitude of the Shanghai Composite Index/CSI 300 is only 12%/21%. The low point of the Shanghai Composite Index this year is 3,328 points on March 9, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is 4,883 points on March 25, and the Wind All A is 5,071 points on March 9. If the previous low point is valid, then refer to the volatility range of historical stock indexes, and the market is expected to hit a new high this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/977d2db1af801ea34b7b77b1f0797f0a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The market value structure is surprisingly upright, and the industry structure is deployed with intelligent manufacturing.</b>Since 2016, individual stocks and funds in A-shares have shown Matthew effect. In terms of individual stocks, we use the absolute value of the standard deviation/mean of the annual rise and fall of individual stocks to measure the dispersion of the rise and fall of individual stocks. From 2000 to 15, the average dispersion of the rise and fall of A-share stocks was 1.9, and since 2016 (as of 21/06/14, the same below) rapidly expanded to 3.9. In terms of funds, the average dispersion of changes in fund net value has increased from 0.68 in 2006-2015 to 0.98 since 2016. Moreover, the trend of fund size concentrating to the head is very significant. At present, the top 10% of funds account for 60% of the total fund size. The reason behind it is that the registration system of A shares and the institutionalization + internationalization of A shares are accelerating, and this Matthew effect will continue to strengthen in the future, similar to the US stock market after the 1990s. This is an important factor that cannot be ignored when carrying out the market value structure and industry structure layout.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b8377aa8411262d7bb3e0aa5ba2674\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of market value structure, it is surprisingly upright. According to the total market value, we divide A shares into three echelons of \"more than 80 billion/20-80 billion/less than 20 billion\". The number of stocks in the three echelons accounts for 4%/13%/83% respectively, and the market value accounts for 44%/27%/29%. The first echelon, the super-large market capitalization group represented by the Mao Index, is a high-quality leader in various industries and still has allocation value, that is, \"keeping integrity\". From the perspective of profit valuation ratio and new fund allocation preference, this year's second echelon of mid-to-large markets has better cost performance, which is so-called \"surprising\". We think the sharp decline in the Mao Index after the Spring Festival is just a self-correction of the price/performance ratio. At present, the Mao Index has a trend of US stocks. Among the northbound capital positions, the constituent stocks of the Mao Index also account for 47.7%. Drawing lessons from the characteristics of the US stock trend, this year may be in a wide range of shocks. With the epidemic under control and the economy gradually getting on the right track in the post-epidemic era, the relative advantages of ultra-large-cap stocks represented by the Mao Index in fundamentals will not be as extreme as last year. The annualized growth rate is 15%, the current PE (TTM, overall method, the same below) is 30 times, the market value of medium and large stocks (total market value 20-80 billion) is 19% and 28 times respectively, and the small market value (below 20 billion) is 6% and 50 times. For details, see \"The Way Out for Mao Index Worries-20210426\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f5b8e653ec1477016e48ffb83db9cac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the industry, intelligent manufacturing is expected to become the new main line. From an industry perspective, the most prominent of the aforementioned second echelon (20-80 billion) is intelligent manufacturing-related industries. There are three logics for attaching importance to intelligent manufacturing: First, the fundamentals of intelligent manufacturing are stronger. Technologies such as 5G and new energy are gradually applied to promote the growth of intelligent manufacturing performance; The epidemic has led to the restructuring of the global manufacturing industry chain, and Chinese manufacturing has taken advantage of the situation to upgrade; During the stage of moderate inflation, manufacturing profits expand. Second, policies support the rapid rise of intelligent manufacturing. The 14th Five-Year Plan focuses on building a modern industrial system. Third, institutions represented by funds do not have a high allocation of intelligent manufacturing. In 21Q1, the intelligent manufacturing industry accounted for only 26.6% of the fund's heavyweight stocks, while the high point in 20Q2 was 32.3%, which is still slightly underweighted. For details, please refer to the previous reports \"The Epidemic Accelerates the Upgrading of China's Manufacturing-China's Intelligent Manufacturing Series 1-20210319\", \"China's Intelligent Manufacturing Series 2-20210402\", \"Looking at the Prospects of Intelligent Manufacturing from the Technology Clock-China's Intelligent Manufacturing Series 3-20210414\", \"Moderate Inflation Conducts Manufacturing Profit Expansion-China's Intelligent Manufacturing Series 4-20210429\", \"China's Intelligent Manufacturing Series: Both Wisdom and Courage, Creating the Future-20210511\", \"Key Sub-Areas of Intelligent Manufacturing Series 5-20210528\". Along the main line of \"China's Intelligent Manufacturing\", Haitong Strategy and the industry have sorted out investment opportunities in related fields of intelligent manufacturing. See Table 2 for specific targets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8b2519eefe59f94c4525d08fbeb40b3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff79edef1d8e1b39efffeb27c1b0163\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Inflation continues to rise sharply, and the investment clock enters a period of stagflation ahead of schedule.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100801009","content_text":"核心结论：①中美最新的通胀数据均超预期上升，但A股和美股均不跌反涨，显示股市对通胀开始脱敏，下半年通胀压力下降。②历史上牛市中指数高点略提前于盈利高点，本轮ROE高点预计在21Q4-22Q1，结合年度振幅规律，指数有望创年内新高。③以茅指数为代表的龙头优质公司仍是较好配置，守正。盈利增长较快、顺应政策方向的智能制造更有弹性，出奇。\n股市对通胀开始脱敏\n近期公布的我国5月PPI同比增速破9%，美国CPI同比增速破5%，均较前一个月大幅上升且超出大家的预期。但是资本市场的表现却和前一个月大相径庭，这个月A股和美股在通胀再次超预期上升后不跌反涨。我们认为股市对通胀最担忧的时间已经过去，基本面支持下A股指数年内有望创新高。\n1.A股和美股均对通胀开始脱敏\n股市对通胀的担忧正边际减缓。6月9日，国家统计局公布的5月PPI同比增速为9%，为PPI同比增速数据1996年诞生以来第三高的读数，仅次于08年7月和08年8月的10%。今年以来，PPI同比增速不断超预期，我们以实际公布的数据与wind一致预期相比，今年1月PPI同比增速为0.3%，wind一致预期为0.29%，相差0.01个百分点，而2月这一差值就上升至0.24个百分点，3-5月分别为1.09/0.59/0.74个百分点。在上一轮PPI上升周期（16-17年）中，PPI同比增速也是不断超预期，实际值与预测值最大的误差在16年底，也是1个百分点。虽然PPI的同比增速依旧在不断超预期，但是股市对通胀的担忧正边际减缓。过去三个月通胀数据公布的日期分别为4月9日、5月11日和6月9日，时间均为早上9点半。观察上证综指的分时图，可以发现市场对PPI这一负面因素的反应正在钝化：\n\n4月9日：当日公布的3月PPI为4.4%，大超wind一致预期1.09个百分点，股市在开盘后便单边下跌，收盘时上证综指当日下跌0.5%；\n5月11日：当日公布的4月PPI为6.8%，超过wind一致预期0.59个百分点，股市在开盘后下跌，10点半之后由跌转涨，收盘时上证综指当日上涨1.07%\n6月9日：当日公布的5月PPI为9%，超过wind一致预期0.74个百分点，然而股市在开盘反而上涨，至收盘时上证综指当日涨幅为0.37%。\n\n\n美股和A股一样，对高通胀的反应也开始钝化。过去两个月，美国的CPI也开始大幅上升，3月CPI同比增速为2.6%，4月为4.2%，5月已经上升到了5%，增速创2008年8月以来最高；扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增速3月时还是1.6%，4月就跳升到了3%，5月则大涨3.8%，增速创1992年以来新高。但股市对通胀数据的反应则在钝化，5月12日公布数据当天，标普500和纳斯达克指数均大跌超过2%，但是这次6月10日公布CPI后，前述指数均小幅上涨，标普500涨0.5%，纳斯达克指数涨0.8%。\n\n下半年通胀压力下降。其实今年通胀压力本身并没有看上去那么大，5月PPI同比9%的增速看似很高，但是很大程度上源自去年同期的低基数，剔除基数效应后的两年年化增速实际只有2.5%。回顾2006-08年和2009-11年两轮通胀周期，我国PPI当月同比上行周期平均持续两年左右，前期PPI上行主要源于流动性充裕，而后期通胀继续上行得益于基本面改善。本轮PPI当月同比从20年5月低点-3.7%见底开始回升，至今已经持续了1年左右。从时间和空间上看，流动性驱动第一波涨价潮可能告一段落，Wind一致预期显示，下半年PPI同比增速将逐渐回落，两年年化增速大约在1.5%附近。\n那第二波通胀上涨何时来临？我们认为可能要到明年上半年。借鉴09-11年，当时全球各经济体从危机中的复苏强劲且基本同步，因此大宗商品的第一波和第二波上涨之间只休息了半年多，即第一波上涨从08年底开始持续到10年初，第二波上涨则是从10Q3开始。这次疫情冲击下的全球经济和09-11年一样同样经历了“危机→放水→复苏”的过程，但由于各国疫情防控措施不同以及病毒变异，后疫情时代各国经济复苏缓慢且不同步，因此大宗商品第一波上涨之后的休息时间可能会比09-11年更长。这一次我国防疫措施最好、复苏最快，20年我国是全球唯一实现GDP正增长的国家。美国等发达国家防疫政策有效性不及我国，复苏节奏略落后，2020年GDP增速是负数，但世界银行预计2021年美国GDP的两年年化增速大致能回到疫情前的水平。而大部分新兴市场国家由于防疫政策落后和疫情反复，世界银行预计20-21年GDP两年年化增速仅在0%左右，经济增速真正开始上升可能要等到2022年及之后。当前这种复苏的错位使得本轮全球复苏时间拖得更长，因此第二阶段的通胀压力可能要等明年上半年才体现出来。\n\n2.A股未来走势关键看盈利\n牛市高点与盈利高点更加相关。既然对通胀最担忧的阶段即将过去，那今年的主要矛盾是什么？我们认为还是回归基本面。回顾历史，牛市高点与企业盈利的高点相关性更强，具体可以看净利润同比增速和ROE指标。因为A股净利润同比增速常受到基期因素扰动，所以A股单季度净利同比高点和股市指数高点往往不一致，这源于低基数导致同比增速波动大，如果平滑到两年发现，近两年单季度净利润年化同比增速与指数高点较一致，此外，ROE跟指数高点相关性强。具体而言：05/6-07/10牛市期间，上证指数和沪深300高点在07/10，而A股单季度净利同比高点为06Q4的414%，近两年A股单季度净利年化同比增速高点为07Q4的192%，全部A股ROE高点在07Q4。08/10-10/11牛市期间，上证指数在09年8月达到高点3478点，此后开始高位震荡至10/11，随后开始下行，中小板指在10/11达到高点，而A股单季度净利同比高点为09Q4的560%，近两年A股单季度净利年化同比增速高点为10Q4的207%，ROE高点在10Q4，中小板指ROE高点也出现于10Q4。12/12-15/06牛市期间，创业板开始结构性牛市，创业板指单季度净利润年化同比增速ROE高点出现在15Q4，但由于清查配资等去杠杆因素，创业板指在15/06出现高点，在业绩向好的催化下，15Q4创业板指反弹幅度显著。\n预计本轮盈利周期高点在21Q4-22Q1。首先，从历史盈利周期的时空规律上看，本轮盈利周期尚未走完。时间上，以A股归母净利润累计同比增速或ROE刻画，2002年以来A股已经经历了五轮完整的盈利周期，每轮周期平均持续39个月，其中上行周期平均持续6-7个季度，本轮盈利周期若看A股归母净利累计同比增速，20Q1见底，20Q2开始回升，至21Q1只回升了4个季度；若看ROE（TTM），20Q2见底、Q3开始回升，至今只持续了3个季度，时间都没走完，按照时间推算，本轮盈利周期高点我们预计在21Q4-22Q1。空间上，21Q1全A归母净利润两年年化增速只有8%，相当于17Q2的水平，相比18Q2的16%复合增速还有很大空间，21Q1全部A股ROE为9.2%，相当于2019年和17Q1的水平，也还有很大的空间。\n具体预测上，我们的预测方法是按照一季度的利润占全年的比重来推测A股今年全年的归母净利润增速和对应的ROE。首先，由于包括商誉在内的资产减值损失主要体现在每年四季度的报表中，我们需要把这部分的损失补回去来分析减值损失前的利润在各个季度的占比，这个新口径的利润类似EBIT的概念。这个减值损失前的利润在全年四个季度的占比大约是20%、25%、25%、30%，这一占比在除了2008/2009/2020年之外均非常稳定，因此以21Q1的减值损失前利润除以一季度的占比我们可以大概预测出全年的增速。在这一基础上，我们需要进一步预测资产减值损失对四季度单季度利润的影响。回顾历史，我们可以发现18年起资产减值损失的规模非常大，18年3000+亿元，19年近5000亿，20年回落至4000+亿，与单季度的利润量基本相当。18年由于国内去杠杆叠加中美贸易摩擦，当年许多企业大量计提商誉减值损失，即在微观层面上，由于当年业绩过差，上市公司有动力进一步做低当年的业绩来拉高次年的业绩。同样的逻辑理应出现在2020年，毕竟去年许多企业亏损，企业可以借疫情冲击释放报表中的负面因素，然而我们看到去年整体的减值损失还不及2019年，或许意味着潜在的可以用来减值的资产可能没有那么多了（比如商誉）。因此对于今年的减值损失预测，我们保守地预计今年的量等于去年的量，测算得今年全A归母净利润增速30%以上，对应两年年化增速17+%；剔除金融两油后，全部A股归母净利润同比增速预计45%以上，两年年化增速30+%，未来公布的实际增速可能因资产减值损失这一误差项而向上超预期。以此为基础，我们预计21Q2-Q4三个季度对应的全部A股ROE（TTM）分别为8.8-9.0%、9.0-9.2%和9.5-9.7%。\n\n3.应对策略：顺势而为\nA股年内有望创新高。随着通胀最担忧的阶段过去，盈利将成为市场主要的驱动力，而我们判断今年企业盈利还将向上。我们在19年初就提出，19年1月4日上证综指2440点为本轮牛市起点，本轮牛市有望持续三年，同时我们提出牛市有三个阶段，驱动力、特征各不相同。本轮牛市19年为由资金面驱动的牛市孕育期，20年市场进入了基本面和资金面双轮驱动的牛市爆发期，21年市场有望进入由基本面和情绪面驱动的泡沫期。目前我们判断盈利还在上升周期；情绪方面，我们从PE/PB、大类资产比价和交易指标三个维度跟踪情绪，目前市场情绪大约60-65度；流动性方面我们认为今年货币政策大概率保持合理充裕，流动性中性，因此综合来看，牛市大格局未变，牛市尚未走完。统计A股各主要股指在2000-2020年间每一年的振幅（年内最高价相对最低价的涨幅），以上证综指、沪深300为例，年振幅基本都在25%-30%附近，牛市或熊市时振幅会略高于60%，今年至今（截至20210614，下同）上证综指/沪深300振幅仅12%/21%。今年上证综指的低点是3月9日的3328点，沪深300在3月25日的4883点，万得全A在3月9日的5071点，如果前期低点有效，那参考历史股指的波动幅度，今年市场有望创新高。\n\n市值结构上守正出奇，行业结构上布局智能制造。2016年起A股中个股和基金均呈现出马太效应。个股上，我们以每年个股涨跌幅的标准差/均值的绝对值来度量个股涨跌幅离散度，2000-15年A股个股涨跌幅离散度均值为1.9，而2016年至今（截至21/06/14，下同）快速扩大至3.9。基金上，基金净值变化离散度均值从2006-2015年的0.68上升至2016年至今的0.98。并且基金规模向头部集中的趋势非常显著，目前规模前10%的基金占全部基金规模的比重达到了60%。背后的原因是A股实行注册制以及A股机构化+国际化不断加速，而未来这种马太效应将继续强化，类似1990年代后的美股，这是在进行市值结构和行业结构布局时不可忽视的重要因素。\n\n市值结构上，守正出奇。我们根据总市值将A股分为“800亿以上/200-800亿/200亿以下”三个梯队，三个梯队个股数量占比分别为4%/13%/83%，市值占比为44%/27%/29%。第一梯队以茅指数为代表的超大市值组，是各个行业的优质龙头，仍然具有配置价值，即“守正”。从盈利估值比、新基金配置偏好看，今年第二梯队的中大盘性价比更优，所谓“出奇”。春节后茅指数大幅下跌我们认为只是性价比的自我修正，当前茅指数已有美股化趋势，在北上资金持仓中，茅指数成分股占比也达47.7%，借鉴美股走势形态特征，今年或处在宽幅震荡之中。随着疫情得到控制，后疫情时代经济逐渐步入正轨，以茅指数为代表的超大盘股在基本面上的相对优势不会像去年那么极致，我们测算超大市值公司21Q1归母净利润两年年化增速为15%，当前PE（TTM，整体法，下同）为30倍，中大市值（总市值200-800亿）分别为19%、28倍，小市值（200亿以下）为6%、50倍，中大市值个股业绩改善较为明显。详见《茅指数忧虑的出路-20210426》。\n\n行业上，智能制造有望成为新主线。从行业层面来看，前述第二梯队（200-800亿）中最为凸显就是智能制造相关行业。重视智能制造逻辑有三：第一，智能制造基本面更强。5G和新能源等技术逐渐应用，推动智能制造业绩增长；疫情导致全球制造业产业链重构，中国制造乘势升级；温和通胀阶段，制造业盈利扩张。第二，政策支持智能制造快速崛起。十四五规划重在构建现代产业体系。第三，基金为代表的机构对智能制造配置不高。21Q1基金重仓股中智能制造类行业占比仅26.6%，而20Q2的高点为32.3%，目前仍略微低配。详见前期报告《疫情加快中国制造升级——中国智造系列1-20210319》、《中国智造正走向世界前列——中国智造系列2-20210402》、《从科技时钟看智能制造前景——中国智造系列3-20210414》、《温和通胀利于制造业盈利扩张——中国智造系列4-20210429》、《中国智造：智勇兼备，造就未来-20210511》、《智能制造的重点子领域——中国智造系列5-20210528》。沿着“中国智能制造”的主线，海通策略联合行业梳理了智能制造相关领域投资机会，具体标的详见表2。\n\n风险提示：通胀继续大幅上行，投资时钟提前进入滞胀期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184368544,"gmtCreate":1623684928588,"gmtModify":1704208726010,"author":{"id":"3586663217774658","authorId":"3586663217774658","name":"DanielLau16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede1462cf07466236d71548b855c6759","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586663217774658","idStr":"3586663217774658"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184368544","repostId":"1141192934","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}