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in_deep_red

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- in_deep_redin_deep_red
  ·2024-02-14
  Its a normal pullback. Market has been running hot for 5 straight weeks with added AI frenzy. This had to stop.
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- in_deep_redin_deep_red
  ·2024-02-14
  Its a normal pullback. Market has been running hot for 5 straight weeks with added AI frenzy. This had to stop.
  2.02K Comment
  2
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- in_deep_redin_deep_red
  ·2022-12-05
  Awesome!
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  1.79K Comment
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- in_deep_redin_deep_red
  ·2022-12-05
  Vgood!
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- in_deep_redin_deep_red
  ·2022-11-29
  Awesome!!
  Stock Market Could See "Fireworks" Through the End of the Year As Headwinds Have "Flipped"
  Several headwinds that pummeled the stock market in 2022 have turned into tailwinds, setting the sta
  Stock Market Could See "Fireworks" Through the End of the Year As Headwinds Have "Flipped"
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- in_deep_redin_deep_red
  ·2022-11-28
  Thanks
  The Road To 4300+ For S&P Has Some Bumps Ahead, Get Ready
  SummaryIf we can navigate these obstacles, we should end the year strongly positive. It all comes do
  The Road To 4300+ For S&P Has Some Bumps Ahead, Get Ready
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- in_deep_redin_deep_red
  ·2022-11-25
  Too bad!!
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- in_deep_redin_deep_red
  ·2022-11-18
  Good news... at last!
  U.S. Stock Futures Rise With Yields as Fed Messages Digested
  European stocks rose and US index futures pointed to a stronger open on Wall Street after two days o
  U.S. Stock Futures Rise With Yields as Fed Messages Digested
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- in_deep_redin_deep_red
  ·2022-11-09
  I see
  Amazon: Buying Opportunity In The Making
  SummaryAmazon reported quarterly results a few days ago, and especially due to the weak guidance for
  Amazon: Buying Opportunity In The Making
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- in_deep_redin_deep_red
  ·2022-11-09
  Nice
  History Points to a Post-Midterm Rally: Oppenheimer Suggests 3 Stocks to Ride the Momentum
  America goes to the only poll that counts, and tomorrow morning we’ll have a better picture of the n
  History Points to a Post-Midterm Rally: Oppenheimer Suggests 3 Stocks to Ride the Momentum
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Market has been running hot for 5 straight weeks with added AI frenzy. 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Here are the 2022 headwinds that Lee sees becoming tailwinds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c29b9d2a4ebedf7f9405f7f2b75e4b25\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Lee said that softer inflation seen in October appears “repeatable” and that the easing of price pressures should be “sufficient” for the Fed to slow its rapid pace of rate hikes, with December potentially being the last increase. Also, “if inflation is ‘as bad as 1980s’ I would have thought midterms would have been an incumbent massacre,” Lee said of the recent U.S. elections.</p><p>He said that other recent signals point to “a far different path forward for markets,” including “collapsing” volatility in the bond market and a relatively large decline in the U.S. dollar.  Lee pointed to the plunge in the CBOE 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Volatility Index, saying he anticipated that a further decline would support the S&amp;P 500 soaring to 4,400 to 4,500 by year-end.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 ended Friday down 15.5% for the year, but up more than 12% from its 2022 closing low on Oct. 12, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>U.S. stocks traded lower on Monday, with the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -1.54% down 0.8% at around 3,995, according to FactSet data. In the bond market, 10-year Treasury yields TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.684% were flat at 3.69% around midday Monday, while two-year yields TMUBMUSD02Y, 4.442% fell about five basis points to 4.43%.</p><p>U.S. yields have recently seen a “massive decline ranking in the bottom 1% largest downside moves in the past 50-years,” said Lee. The odds are rising that 10-year and 2-year yields may be past their peaks, potentially supporting an expansion in price-to-earnings multiples in stocks, according to his note.</p><p>“Skeptics will say “growth is the problem now” and point to downside” in the S&amp;P 500’s earnings per share, or EPS, said Lee.  But the index historically has “bottomed 11-12 months before EPS troughs,” he said. “So EPS is lagging.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Market Could See \"Fireworks\" Through the End of the Year As Headwinds Have \"Flipped\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Market Could See \"Fireworks\" Through the End of the Year As Headwinds Have \"Flipped\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-29 07:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-could-see-fireworks-through-the-end-of-the-year-as-headwinds-have-flipped-fundstrats-tom-lee-says-11669656362?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Several headwinds that pummeled the stock market in 2022 have turned into tailwinds, setting the stage for a rally in U.S. equities heading into year-end, according to Tom Lee, head of research at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-could-see-fireworks-through-the-end-of-the-year-as-headwinds-have-flipped-fundstrats-tom-lee-says-11669656362?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-could-see-fireworks-through-the-end-of-the-year-as-headwinds-have-flipped-fundstrats-tom-lee-says-11669656362?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111834536","content_text":"Several headwinds that pummeled the stock market in 2022 have turned into tailwinds, setting the stage for a rally in U.S. equities heading into year-end, according to Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors.“The Thanksgiving holiday has ended and now markets are entering the final key weeks of 2022,” said Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, in a note Monday. “While many may be tempted to ‘close the books’ for the year, we think the final 5 weeks will be ‘fireworks.’”In Lee’s view, 11 headwinds that this year helped drive the S&P 500 index to a 2022 low in October, including surging oil prices and the Federal Reserve’s hurry to lift interest rates higher to battle soaring inflation, “have all flipped.” On Monday morning, U.S. oil was trading at the lowest price of 2022 amid protests in China over the country’s strict rules aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19, restrictions that investors fear will hurt consumption and economic growth.Lee said he saw the easing of inflation in October, as measured by the consumer price index, as a “game changer” for markets, with the case for “a sustainable rally in equities” being the strongest that it’s been so far this year. Here are the 2022 headwinds that Lee sees becoming tailwinds.Lee said that softer inflation seen in October appears “repeatable” and that the easing of price pressures should be “sufficient” for the Fed to slow its rapid pace of rate hikes, with December potentially being the last increase. Also, “if inflation is ‘as bad as 1980s’ I would have thought midterms would have been an incumbent massacre,” Lee said of the recent U.S. elections.He said that other recent signals point to “a far different path forward for markets,” including “collapsing” volatility in the bond market and a relatively large decline in the U.S. dollar.  Lee pointed to the plunge in the CBOE 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Volatility Index, saying he anticipated that a further decline would support the S&P 500 soaring to 4,400 to 4,500 by year-end.The S&P 500 ended Friday down 15.5% for the year, but up more than 12% from its 2022 closing low on Oct. 12, according to Dow Jones Market Data.U.S. stocks traded lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 SPX, -1.54% down 0.8% at around 3,995, according to FactSet data. In the bond market, 10-year Treasury yields TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.684% were flat at 3.69% around midday Monday, while two-year yields TMUBMUSD02Y, 4.442% fell about five basis points to 4.43%.U.S. yields have recently seen a “massive decline ranking in the bottom 1% largest downside moves in the past 50-years,” said Lee. The odds are rising that 10-year and 2-year yields may be past their peaks, potentially supporting an expansion in price-to-earnings multiples in stocks, according to his note.“Skeptics will say “growth is the problem now” and point to downside” in the S&P 500’s earnings per share, or EPS, said Lee.  But the index historically has “bottomed 11-12 months before EPS troughs,” he said. “So EPS is lagging.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966705625,"gmtCreate":1669635238367,"gmtModify":1676538216490,"author":{"id":"3586741802190308","authorId":"3586741802190308","name":"in_deep_red","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b428b6bee1937061822da4d8a206e8cb","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586741802190308","idStr":"3586741802190308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966705625","repostId":"1137126678","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137126678","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669650249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137126678?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-28 23:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Road To 4300+ For S&P Has Some Bumps Ahead, Get Ready","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137126678","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryIf we can navigate these obstacles, we should end the year strongly positive. It all comes do","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>If we can navigate these obstacles, we should end the year strongly positive. It all comes down once again to inflation receding. The big unknown is the potential Railroad strike.</li><li>December 1 PCE, Market Participants are going to lower inflation news.</li><li>December 2 Employment numbers for the month of November.</li><li>December 9 Railroad strike looming and chances are decent it could happen.</li><li>December 13 CPI, Depending on how the PCE performs, the expectation is that the data will be favorable. December 14 FOMC rate rise of .50% is expected. If all goes well, we should have a strong year-end rally.</li></ul><h3>First hurdle; The PCE - has to show lower inflation</h3><p>As I write my weekly analysis, the futures late Sunday night down with the SPX down .62% and the NDX down .81%. The 10-year treasury has fallen the steepest since 2020. One can interpret this data as somewhat alarming, however with the unrest in China, one can discount at least some of the negativity influenced by Asian traders. WTI has also fallen to a yearly low at about $74 per barrel. I would note that last week started similarly and the indexes ended up to positive later in the week. I suspect a similar start to this week, but that doesn&#39;t mean I expect smooth sailing for the first half of December.</p><p>There are a number of hurdles for stock market participants to navigate. The first hurdle is Thursday’s economic data reveal PCE - Personal Consumption Expenditure for October. This is reputed to be the favorite measure of inflation for the Fed; however, the data is nearly 2 months old. Odds are, or at least I would assume that market participants expect the numbers would follow the previous CPI reveal and show inflation growth slowing.</p><p>Another reason I expect the week to start out positively in spite of the negative futures right now. Probably Wednesday could see some selling going into Thursday’s reveal. What if the PCE does not show improvement or even acceleration in inflation, I suspect that the selling would be muted specifically because the number is old. If pressed I would say the likelihood of the PCE coming in and showing improvement is about 65/35. I have no quantitative formula to back up that assertion just that with so much higher frequency data pointing to lower inflation that the PCE should be reflecting that even back to October.</p><h3>Second Hurdle; November employment and the unemployment rate</h3><p>The November employment number and percentage of unemployment could disappoint the orthodoxy of the Fed. The Fed believes higher employment means higher inflation. We know that inflation is a monetary phenomenon, with too much money chasing fewer goods and services. Higher employment means that more goods and services are being produced. Raising interest rates is in fact lowering consumption, and causing layoffs, though not because business is bad but because of fear that business will be bad. Right now most of the layoffs are centered in the tech sector. Strangely this will actually release more productivity not less.</p><p>We have seen that these successful tech companies where the market only cared about revenue growth now want to see profits. Against that background is the notion that companies like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms </a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon </a> were hoarding technology talent. So what is going to happen is that these companies will produce the same services with fewer people. The excess technology workers are going to go to other smaller firms that are desperate for tech talent. This will perturb the Fed, thinking that only having workers become idle will lower consumption and inflation. I think that perhaps the unemployment rate might tick up to 3.8% or may not move at all.</p><p>Raising rates in my view to perhaps 4.50% makes for a more rational distribution of investment. So I don’t object to raising rates at all. I just think that pushing rates higher to destroy jobs will not suppress inflation directly. I am optimistic that the Fed is going to level off on rate rises, and wait for the economy to adjust to what really is the level it should have been at all along somewhere at the 4.5% level or thereabouts. I know that this is below the current expected FFR of +5%, but I don’t think it will need to get there. In any case, a high employment number and perhaps an unemployment percentage that may hold 3.7%, could cause tongues wagging about the Fed needing to raise another .75% and not the .50% that is expected.</p><p>Once again, I think market participants will get over this scenario. Why? I believe the seasonal pattern will assert itself, we are in fact coming to the Santa Claus Rally. I believe corporate stock buybacks are being doled out before year-end. Also interestingly “Insider Selling” is falling, meaning that the people who know their companies best have determined that their stocks are too cheap to sell right now. That’s good enough for me.</p><h3>Hurdle three; An impending railroad strike</h3><p>This hurdle is one that I can’t blithely brush off. Most market participants are only just now learning about the possibility of the first national strike in decades. This is going to cost the economy $2B per day, I believe freight trains account for 40% of products being moved each day. Nearly every manufacturing process needs what railway freight provides. We are also talking about supplies as well as consumables that we need every day. There aren’t enough trucks to take up the slack either.</p><p>The following Monday, December 5th will open up more discussion about the downside of what a railroad strike could do. This is a long-simmering dispute between the railroad companies and the unions. As it stands right now 4 unions have rejected the deal that was being negotiated, the other 8 unions will not cross the picket line. The only recourse is an act of congress to force them back to work. I am not totally assured that will happen as quickly as we need it to. I am hoping that someone blinks and the strike will be avoided. As we all know hope is not a strategy. Our subscription service Dual Mind Research has prepared our community by building up cash and putting on hedges in order to prepare. We are also moving back into the Oil and Gas names, that is because if there is a strike, that means coal will not be delivered to coal power plants, pushing up the price of natural gas.</p><p>I hope that cooler heads prevail and the strike will be averted. Just in case, we prepared for the worst and celebrate the best if we can avoid this disruptive strike.</p><h3>Hurdles four and five, then we have a clean shot to 4300</h3><p>If the strike can be averted or it ends up being shortened due to legislative action, we have a clear shot at a powerful year-end rally. My assumption is that the CPI reveal on December 13 will once again show a deceleration of inflation growth. Then December 14 is the Fed Open Market Committee announced a rate rise of .50%. This will give great relief to market participants. A strong rally is possible as evidence of inflation rolling over mounts. I suspect that by year-end there will be less talk about a terminal rate of 5%.</p><h3>So how are we going to confront these hurdles?</h3><p>We use Oil and Gas frackers as a form of hedging. I expect as I said that losing coal as a fuel source both for export and domestic power production will boost the prices of Natural Gas, and Fuel Oil to take up the slack. We also set up some options that benefit as the VIX rises. It has been my observation that whenever the VIX falls below 21, it tends to reverse direction and starts to rise. I also have some puts on AAPL. I know that WTI is falling to the lowest level since 2021. I am clearly favoring the opposite result.</p><p>China is the biggest consumer of oil in the world. However on the other hand Europe is banning Russian oil next week. I think it will all balance out. In fact, oil-related equities are outperforming the price of WTI by a large margin. I will try my best to trade around the various hurdles. If the futures do end up pressuring stocks, I will look to close out at least some of my hedging. I won’t be averse to doing some fast money trades if the situation presents itself. I will look to put hedges back on going into the week of the 5th as the Railroad strike looms. I hope that for all our sakes the strike can be averted. If not, I will be hedged up as much as I can without overleveraging against the downside. If we can navigate around the strike, I think reaching above 4300 on the S&amp;P 500 is quite possible. Not only do I have put options, I also have triple inverse ETFs that I can close out in premarket trading giving me further flexibility in managing my risk. Also having a nice slug of cash to pick up shares on the cheap as the situation presents itself.</p><p>Perhaps I am sounding more bearish than usual. It is only because there is a huge unknown here. Perhaps, I am misreading the situation and there is an easy solution that I am not aware of, but a nationwide strike, the first one in decades just has too many unknowns. If we can get beyond that then we can start thinking of a bull market rally. The more inflation recedes the more valuable stock becomes, they can gain back higher PE levels in anticipation of the higher future value of future profits. If you haven’t hedged, or put aside cash, I still believe the indexes will turn around tomorrow giving you the opportunity to put on hedges and add that cash. Just please don’t go to extremes. I am not 50% cash right now or anything close to that. Use your best judgment, look at each of your positions and ask yourself if the stocks you have are going to be higher in 6 months. They likely will just remember that insiders are selling less of their company’s stocks. They are telling us that stocks are well-priced.</p><p>Good luck everyone!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Road To 4300+ For S&P Has Some Bumps Ahead, Get Ready</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Road To 4300+ For S&P Has Some Bumps Ahead, Get Ready\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-28 23:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560759-road-to-4300-plus-s-p-some-bumps-ahead-get-ready><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIf we can navigate these obstacles, we should end the year strongly positive. It all comes down once again to inflation receding. The big unknown is the potential Railroad strike.December 1 PCE...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560759-road-to-4300-plus-s-p-some-bumps-ahead-get-ready\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560759-road-to-4300-plus-s-p-some-bumps-ahead-get-ready","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137126678","content_text":"SummaryIf we can navigate these obstacles, we should end the year strongly positive. It all comes down once again to inflation receding. The big unknown is the potential Railroad strike.December 1 PCE, Market Participants are going to lower inflation news.December 2 Employment numbers for the month of November.December 9 Railroad strike looming and chances are decent it could happen.December 13 CPI, Depending on how the PCE performs, the expectation is that the data will be favorable. December 14 FOMC rate rise of .50% is expected. If all goes well, we should have a strong year-end rally.First hurdle; The PCE - has to show lower inflationAs I write my weekly analysis, the futures late Sunday night down with the SPX down .62% and the NDX down .81%. The 10-year treasury has fallen the steepest since 2020. One can interpret this data as somewhat alarming, however with the unrest in China, one can discount at least some of the negativity influenced by Asian traders. WTI has also fallen to a yearly low at about $74 per barrel. I would note that last week started similarly and the indexes ended up to positive later in the week. I suspect a similar start to this week, but that doesn't mean I expect smooth sailing for the first half of December.There are a number of hurdles for stock market participants to navigate. The first hurdle is Thursday’s economic data reveal PCE - Personal Consumption Expenditure for October. This is reputed to be the favorite measure of inflation for the Fed; however, the data is nearly 2 months old. Odds are, or at least I would assume that market participants expect the numbers would follow the previous CPI reveal and show inflation growth slowing.Another reason I expect the week to start out positively in spite of the negative futures right now. Probably Wednesday could see some selling going into Thursday’s reveal. What if the PCE does not show improvement or even acceleration in inflation, I suspect that the selling would be muted specifically because the number is old. If pressed I would say the likelihood of the PCE coming in and showing improvement is about 65/35. I have no quantitative formula to back up that assertion just that with so much higher frequency data pointing to lower inflation that the PCE should be reflecting that even back to October.Second Hurdle; November employment and the unemployment rateThe November employment number and percentage of unemployment could disappoint the orthodoxy of the Fed. The Fed believes higher employment means higher inflation. We know that inflation is a monetary phenomenon, with too much money chasing fewer goods and services. Higher employment means that more goods and services are being produced. Raising interest rates is in fact lowering consumption, and causing layoffs, though not because business is bad but because of fear that business will be bad. Right now most of the layoffs are centered in the tech sector. Strangely this will actually release more productivity not less.We have seen that these successful tech companies where the market only cared about revenue growth now want to see profits. Against that background is the notion that companies like Meta Platforms , and Amazon  were hoarding technology talent. So what is going to happen is that these companies will produce the same services with fewer people. The excess technology workers are going to go to other smaller firms that are desperate for tech talent. This will perturb the Fed, thinking that only having workers become idle will lower consumption and inflation. I think that perhaps the unemployment rate might tick up to 3.8% or may not move at all.Raising rates in my view to perhaps 4.50% makes for a more rational distribution of investment. So I don’t object to raising rates at all. I just think that pushing rates higher to destroy jobs will not suppress inflation directly. I am optimistic that the Fed is going to level off on rate rises, and wait for the economy to adjust to what really is the level it should have been at all along somewhere at the 4.5% level or thereabouts. I know that this is below the current expected FFR of +5%, but I don’t think it will need to get there. In any case, a high employment number and perhaps an unemployment percentage that may hold 3.7%, could cause tongues wagging about the Fed needing to raise another .75% and not the .50% that is expected.Once again, I think market participants will get over this scenario. Why? I believe the seasonal pattern will assert itself, we are in fact coming to the Santa Claus Rally. I believe corporate stock buybacks are being doled out before year-end. Also interestingly “Insider Selling” is falling, meaning that the people who know their companies best have determined that their stocks are too cheap to sell right now. That’s good enough for me.Hurdle three; An impending railroad strikeThis hurdle is one that I can’t blithely brush off. Most market participants are only just now learning about the possibility of the first national strike in decades. This is going to cost the economy $2B per day, I believe freight trains account for 40% of products being moved each day. Nearly every manufacturing process needs what railway freight provides. We are also talking about supplies as well as consumables that we need every day. There aren’t enough trucks to take up the slack either.The following Monday, December 5th will open up more discussion about the downside of what a railroad strike could do. This is a long-simmering dispute between the railroad companies and the unions. As it stands right now 4 unions have rejected the deal that was being negotiated, the other 8 unions will not cross the picket line. The only recourse is an act of congress to force them back to work. I am not totally assured that will happen as quickly as we need it to. I am hoping that someone blinks and the strike will be avoided. As we all know hope is not a strategy. Our subscription service Dual Mind Research has prepared our community by building up cash and putting on hedges in order to prepare. We are also moving back into the Oil and Gas names, that is because if there is a strike, that means coal will not be delivered to coal power plants, pushing up the price of natural gas.I hope that cooler heads prevail and the strike will be averted. Just in case, we prepared for the worst and celebrate the best if we can avoid this disruptive strike.Hurdles four and five, then we have a clean shot to 4300If the strike can be averted or it ends up being shortened due to legislative action, we have a clear shot at a powerful year-end rally. My assumption is that the CPI reveal on December 13 will once again show a deceleration of inflation growth. Then December 14 is the Fed Open Market Committee announced a rate rise of .50%. This will give great relief to market participants. A strong rally is possible as evidence of inflation rolling over mounts. I suspect that by year-end there will be less talk about a terminal rate of 5%.So how are we going to confront these hurdles?We use Oil and Gas frackers as a form of hedging. I expect as I said that losing coal as a fuel source both for export and domestic power production will boost the prices of Natural Gas, and Fuel Oil to take up the slack. We also set up some options that benefit as the VIX rises. It has been my observation that whenever the VIX falls below 21, it tends to reverse direction and starts to rise. I also have some puts on AAPL. I know that WTI is falling to the lowest level since 2021. I am clearly favoring the opposite result.China is the biggest consumer of oil in the world. However on the other hand Europe is banning Russian oil next week. I think it will all balance out. In fact, oil-related equities are outperforming the price of WTI by a large margin. I will try my best to trade around the various hurdles. If the futures do end up pressuring stocks, I will look to close out at least some of my hedging. I won’t be averse to doing some fast money trades if the situation presents itself. I will look to put hedges back on going into the week of the 5th as the Railroad strike looms. I hope that for all our sakes the strike can be averted. If not, I will be hedged up as much as I can without overleveraging against the downside. If we can navigate around the strike, I think reaching above 4300 on the S&P 500 is quite possible. Not only do I have put options, I also have triple inverse ETFs that I can close out in premarket trading giving me further flexibility in managing my risk. Also having a nice slug of cash to pick up shares on the cheap as the situation presents itself.Perhaps I am sounding more bearish than usual. It is only because there is a huge unknown here. Perhaps, I am misreading the situation and there is an easy solution that I am not aware of, but a nationwide strike, the first one in decades just has too many unknowns. If we can get beyond that then we can start thinking of a bull market rally. The more inflation recedes the more valuable stock becomes, they can gain back higher PE levels in anticipation of the higher future value of future profits. If you haven’t hedged, or put aside cash, I still believe the indexes will turn around tomorrow giving you the opportunity to put on hedges and add that cash. Just please don’t go to extremes. I am not 50% cash right now or anything close to that. Use your best judgment, look at each of your positions and ask yourself if the stocks you have are going to be higher in 6 months. They likely will just remember that insiders are selling less of their company’s stocks. They are telling us that stocks are well-priced.Good luck everyone!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966041975,"gmtCreate":1669357788298,"gmtModify":1676538188521,"author":{"id":"3586741802190308","authorId":"3586741802190308","name":"in_deep_red","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b428b6bee1937061822da4d8a206e8cb","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586741802190308","idStr":"3586741802190308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Too bad!!","listText":"Too bad!!","text":"Too bad!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966041975","repostId":"1102414813","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963754015,"gmtCreate":1668770708437,"gmtModify":1676538111078,"author":{"id":"3586741802190308","authorId":"3586741802190308","name":"in_deep_red","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b428b6bee1937061822da4d8a206e8cb","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586741802190308","idStr":"3586741802190308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news... at last!","listText":"Good news... at last!","text":"Good news... at last!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963754015","repostId":"1191206867","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191206867","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668768553,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191206867?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 18:49","market":"other","language":"en","title":"U.S. Stock Futures Rise With Yields as Fed Messages Digested","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191206867","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"European stocks rose and US index futures pointed to a stronger open on Wall Street after two days o","content":"<div>\n<p>European stocks rose and US index futures pointed to a stronger open on Wall Street after two days of losses triggered by Federal Reserve signals that interest rates would continue to rise for a while...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/asian-stocks-set-for-cautious-open-on-hawkish-fed-markets-wrap?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stock Futures Rise With Yields as Fed Messages Digested</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stock Futures Rise With Yields as Fed Messages Digested\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-18 18:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/asian-stocks-set-for-cautious-open-on-hawkish-fed-markets-wrap?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>European stocks rose and US index futures pointed to a stronger open on Wall Street after two days of losses triggered by Federal Reserve signals that interest rates would continue to rise for a while...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/asian-stocks-set-for-cautious-open-on-hawkish-fed-markets-wrap?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VIX":"标普500波动率指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/asian-stocks-set-for-cautious-open-on-hawkish-fed-markets-wrap?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191206867","content_text":"European stocks rose and US index futures pointed to a stronger open on Wall Street after two days of losses triggered by Federal Reserve signals that interest rates would continue to rise for a while yet.Europe’s Stoxx index rose 0.8%, led by energy, banking and utilities, though shares stayed on track to snap a four-week rising streak. While the US S&P 500 index is down 1% so far this week, index futures on the benchmark gained 0.3%. Nasdaq contracts also advanced, while in New York premarket trading, chip equipment maker Applied Materialsrose4.1% after issuing a forecast-topping sales forecast. A host of tech names, including Nvidia Corp., Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc., also gained.The moves come a day after shares were knocked sharply lower by hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who said interest rates needed to rise at least to 5%-5.25% to curb inflation. His comments prompted markets to dial up their expectations for how high US rates might go.The dollar retreated while Treasury yields extended their surge in the wake of Bullard’s comments. But Bullard is only the latest policymaker to warn markets that while inflation appears to be easing off multi-decade highs, policy needs to be tightened further to tame price pressures.However, some investors said hawkish commentary did not necessarily mean rates would peak at higher levels than previously thought.“The Fed wants to ensure their job is not getting undone, the language is still robust and that there’s still a coordinated effort from board members to push on the hawkish button,” James Athey, investment director at Abrdn Investment Management Ltd. told Bloomberg Television. “That doesn’t mean the destination is necessarily a higher rate than where markets thought a week or two ago. I think they’re just trying to downplay investor’s spirits a bit.”Fears are mounting though, that relentlessly rising rates will hit economic growth, with a critical segment of the Treasury yield curve at the most steeply inverted in four decades -- historically such an inversion has flagged recession in the world’s largest economy. Growth-sensitive copper and oil prices were poised for weekly losses, pressured by concerns over a worsening demand outlook.Ellen Hazen, chief market strategist at F.L.Putnam Investment Management, said that if the Fed kept increasing rates at the current pace, “by the time they get the information that they’ve been successful in slowing the economy and slowing inflation, it might be too late.”“It’s just too soon to know exactly how this is going to play through the economy and that’s the biggest risk,” she told Bloomberg Television.Still, the dollar’s retreat allowed other major currencies to strengthen, with the Japanese yen getting some additional impetus from data showing inflation at 40-year highs. The pound attempted to recoup Thursday’s losses as investors assessed the fallout from the government budget on an economy that’s already in recession.Earlier, Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index enjoyed a third straight week of gains, thanks to China’s steps to support the property sector and ease Covid restrictions. On Friday, the benchmark’s tech gauge touched a two-month high, led by Alibaba, which missed second-quarter revenues but upsized share buybacks.Bitcoin was on course for a weekly gain even as the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire continues to rattle the crypto market.Key events this week:US Conference Board leading index, existing home sales, FridaySome of the main moves in markets:StocksThe Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.8% as of 10:08 a.m. London timeFutures on the S&P 500 rose 0.3%Futures on the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was little changedCurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%The euro was little changed at $1.0372The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 139.93 per dollarThe offshore yuan rose 0.3% to 7.1268 per dollarThe British pound rose 0.5% to $1.1922CryptocurrenciesBitcoin rose 0.5% to $16,764.29Ether rose 1% to $1,217.45BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.80%Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.07%Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 3.26%CommoditiesBrent crude rose 0.1% to $89.87 a barrelSpot gold rose 0.2% to $1,764.83 an ounceVolatilityVIX slid 0.59% to 23.79VIXmain slid 0.24% to 24.70","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VIX":0.9,"VIXmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987761821,"gmtCreate":1667998598164,"gmtModify":1676537996316,"author":{"id":"3586741802190308","authorId":"3586741802190308","name":"in_deep_red","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b428b6bee1937061822da4d8a206e8cb","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586741802190308","idStr":"3586741802190308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987761821","repostId":"1147357388","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147357388","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667996790,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147357388?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-09 20:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Buying Opportunity In The Making","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147357388","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon reported quarterly results a few days ago, and especially due to the weak guidance for","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Amazon reported quarterly results a few days ago, and especially due to the weak guidance for Q4/22, the stock declined about 20% the following trading days.</li><li>While AWS will continue to perform quite well, the other two segments will probably suffer in an upcoming recession.</li><li>Amazon is investing heavily again, which has had a negative effect on the bottom line and, with decreased spending in the future, higher operating income is possible.</li><li>In my opinion, Amazon stock will go lower in the coming months and quarters, and $65 seems like a first good entry point, with a high risk of Amazon stock declining even lower.</li></ul><p>In my last article about Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) in March 2022, I asked the question if Amazon is finally a buy (at that point, the stock was trading for $142). In my conclusion I wrote:</p><blockquote>I am rather neutral on Amazon right now and I think it is possible that the support level will hold, and the stock might move higher again. However, I don&#39;t know if Amazon can set new all-time highs in the foreseeable future. And I also don&#39;t think that Amazon is a bargain right now or a great investment. The company is without any doubt a great business and will be able to grow with a high pace for several years to come - but at current valuation multiples, it has to be.</blockquote><p>We now know the support level did not hold and the stock declined to the next support level around $100 (back then it was about $2,000 in the not split-adjusted chart). In the meantime, Amazon stock already bounced back to the previous support level around $145 and then declined again – and the last quarterly earnings really accelerated that decline and pushed the stock down to only $90.</p><p><b>Quarterly Results</b></p><p>At a first glance, the result doesn’t seem so bad, and one won’t necessary expect a 20% decline that followed in the days since earnings were reported on October 27, 2022. While the company beat on earnings per share expectations, it missed revenue expectations, but only by $370 million. This seems neglectable when considering total net sales of $127,101 million in Q3/22. Compared to the same quarter last year ($110,812 million in net sales), the top line increased 14.7% year-over-year. While net product sales increased from $54,876 million to $59,340 million (resulting in 8.1% year-over-year growth), net service sales increased from $55,936 million to $67,761 million (resulting in 21.1% growth).</p><p>But while the top line increased, operating income declined 48.0% YoY from $4,852 million in Q3/21 to $2,525 million in Q3/22. And diluted earnings per share also declined from $0.31 in the same quarter last year to $0.28 this quarter.</p><p>The biggest disappointment for investors was probably the company’s guidance for the fourth quarter. Amazon is expecting net sales to be between $140.0 billion and $148.0 billion, reflecting only between 2% and 8% growth compared to Q4/22 (the guidance anticipates an unfavorable impact from foreign exchange rates of 460 basis point). Operating income is expected to be between $0 and $4.0 billion, compared to $3.5 billion in the same quarter last year. And any growth rate below 7% would be the lowest quarterly growth rate for a long time (probably the lowest growth rate ever).</p><p><b>AWS: Cash Cow</b></p><p>When looking at the different segments, the picture is quite similar as in the last few quarters and years. Amazon Web Services, which was already launched in 2002, continues to be the cash cow for Amazon, and it is the segment which is generating almost all the operating income. In the third quarter of fiscal 2022, AWS generated $20,538 million in net sales. Compared to the same quarter last year, this resulted in 27% year-over-year growth (28% in FX adjusted numbers). Operating income in Q3/22 was $5,403 million, resulting in 11% year-over-year growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c08a86cc28fd43259538ed285bfeedab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Amazon Q3/22 Presentation</p><p>And as we can see in the chart below, Amazon is the clear market leader in a fast-growing market. In Q4/21, Amazon AWS had a market share of 33% and was clearly ahead of its two main competitors – Microsoft (MSFT) with Microsoft Azure and Alphabet (GOOG,GOOGL) with Google Cloud.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c532163ed8f8adfb54d4dde7cbc7b9b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>VisualCapitalist</p><p>In my previous article about Alphabet, I already mentioned the fast-growing cloud market. Alphabet stated in a recent presentation that the cloud market is still in its early stage. According to this presentation, the public cloud services spendings are expected to double between 2022 and 2026, and not only Alphabet will profit from this trend but Amazon as well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc96088bc988e019855031a01a7b5890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Alphabet Q3/22 Presentation</p><p>And this is backed up by several different studies (seehereandhere) andforecaststhat also expect high growth rates for the cloud business in the years to come.</p><p><b>Retail: Struggling</b></p><p>While AWS is continuing to grow at a high pace and is very profitable for Amazon, the retail business of Amazon – which is responsible for the biggest part of revenue – seems to struggle once again. The North America segment could still grow the top line at a solid pace, with increased revenue 20% year-over-year, from $65,557 million in the same quarter last year to $78,743 million this quarter. But while the segment could generate an operating profit of $880 million in the same quarter last year, it is now reporting an operating loss of $142 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5885e588ec6a05ae5e5a931755fa4637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Amazon Q3/22 Presentation</p><p>And not only its North America segment was unprofitable this quarter. Its international segment was also unprofitable once again and reported an operating loss of $2,466 million (compared to an operating loss of $911 million in the same quarter last year). Additionally, the segment also had to report declining sales. Compared to $29,145 million in Q3/21, sales in Q3/22 were only $27,720 resulting in 5% year-over-year decline. However, this was in large parts due to currency effects – FX adjusted, sales increased 12% year-over-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08bc6732afc9fa31f5c46aafc37a26a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Amazon Q3/22 Presentation</p><p>So, to be honest, results are not so bad. Both segments are not profitable (we will get to this later) but the mediocre top line results are also due to the strong dollar which affected Amazon’s business – like it affected many other U.S. businesses.</p><p>And when looking at the expectations for the holiday sales, analysts and the NRF, the National Retail Federation, are quite optimistic. For the months of November and December 2022,holiday sales are expectedto be between $942.6 million and $960.4 million– resulting in 6% to 8% year-over-year growth, which is quite an optimistic forecast. Compared to the last two years (with growth rates of 9.3% in 2020 and 13.5% in 2021), this seems moderate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d45157a1039b7db14e9525fd87245fe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>NRF</p><p>And when looking at longer timeframes, growth expectations are also high – not only for the holiday sales. While retail sales are expected to grow only with a CAGR of 3.70% between 2021 and 2026 (according to Statista), ecommerce sales are expected to grow with a much higher pace (and Amazon is generating most of its sales online). For the years from 2023 till 2026, analysts are expecting ecommerce sales to growabout 12% annually.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/381ce5c4ddb35163699973ad633b2892\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"897\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>eMarketer // InsiderIntelligence</p><p>Now we must question if these growth expectations are realistic – especially as we are seeing strong signs for the economy crumbling and not only in the United States of America. Aside from the stock market declining about 20% (which is an early warning indicator), theyield curve inverted recently(one of the best warning signs for a recession) anddisposable income per capitais also declining for several months in a row now.</p><p>In a recession, we usually see spendings decline and here we must take a closer look at Amazon’s revenue streams. About 16% stem from AWS (see section above), and companies might cut back on spendings here – although these are fundamental services for a business. An additional 7% of revenue is stemming from subscription services, and due to switching costs we can be confident to see numbers be at least stable (many people rely on Amazon Prime for free shipping as well as the video and music content).</p><p>But about 42% of revenue stems from online stores, and about 23% stems from third-party sellers. And in both cases, we must assume consumers spending is less, which could lead to declining revenue for Amazon (or at least lower growth rates). An additional 8% of revenue is stemming from advertising and these are classical examples for businesses to cut spendings.</p><p>All in all, we should be rather cautious about Amazon’s top line growth in the next few quarters. And we should even think about the possibility of declining revenue in some quarters – depending on how extreme the recession gets.</p><p><b>Investing in the future</b></p><p>And while declining revenue (or slower growth rates) could be an issue in the coming quarters, the bottom-line results already are a reason for concern right now. Since the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021, free cash flow is negative again (when looking at the TTM numbers). And while Amazon has done a pretty good job of convincing investors to focus on top line growth and ignore profitability (something Meta Platforms (META) is failing horrible right now), investors also seem to be concerned about Amazon as well.</p><p>And I must be honest: I am also a bit irritated that Amazon, a business which is almost 30 years old and one of the major corporations in the world, is failing once again to be profitable. On the other hand, it is good to invest in the future, and we should be confident these investments will pay off.</p><p>We will especially focus on the operating expenses, as these amounts will mostly driver future growth – they include sales, marketing, research, and development. And while Amazon spent about 35% of its revenue on operating expenses in the years 2019 till 2021, it spent over 40% in the last four quarters. And when comparing Amazon to other retail companies, the difference is huge. Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Kroger (KR), for example, are spending about 20% of revenue on operating expenses (Target is spending a little more than the other two). Amazon is spending twice as much of its revenue, and when this spending pays off, Amazon will probably profit in the future by higher growth rates and higher sales.</p><table><tbody><tr><th><p>Total Operating Expenses % of revenue</p></th><th><p>2019</p></th><th><p>2021</p></th><th><p>2021</p></th><th><p>TTM</p></th></tr><tr><td><p>Amazon</p></td><td><p>35.81%</p></td><td><p>33.64%</p></td><td><p>36.74%</p></td><td><p>40.46%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Walmart</p></td><td><p>20.59%</p></td><td><p>20.01%</p></td><td><p>20.57%</p></td><td><p>20.54%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Target</p></td><td><p>23.71%</p></td><td><p>22.21%</p></td><td><p>20.73%</p></td><td><p>20.79%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Kroger</p></td><td><p>20.59%</p></td><td><p>21.59%</p></td><td><p>20.03%</p></td><td><p>19.24%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Of course, the long-term goal should be to spend only as much as necessary and cut cost of revenue as well as operating expenses as this will increase profitability. In case of Amazon, we can see that the company was able to lower its costs of revenue (as percentage of revenue) constantly during the last decade, while operating expenses increased over time.</p><p>But if Amazon can lower its operating expenses over time – and therefore increase operating margin it can be extremely profitable. And it doesn’t even have to lower its operating expenses to 20% of revenue like Walmart or Target – 30% to 35% is enough to multiply its operating income.</p><p><b>Intrinsic Value Calculation</b></p><p>And these increased spendings led to Amazon trading for extremely high valuation multiples once again. As free cash flow is negative, we can’t calculate a reasonable P/FCF ratio at this point. The P/E ratio however is 83 right now and although this is below the 5-year average (which is 105), we can’t really argue that a P/E ratio of almost 100 is cheap in any way. Such a high P/E ratio is even difficult to justify with high growth rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b80c5c9861c0f88a7c05281785e27a38\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>However, it can be justified – at least in parts – by extraordinary high operating expenses, which might not only result in higher revenue growth but also in higher operating income once the high expenditures are reduced again. If we assume only about 35% of revenue spent as operating expenses in addition to 57% of revenue for costs of revenue, we will get an operating margin around 8% and an operating income of $40,000 right now. This would result in earnings per share around $3.50 in my opinion (considering taxes and interest expenses) and Amazon would therefore trade for a P/E ratio of 26.</p><p>This is a much more reasonable P/E ratio, but still a bit high in current market conditions – and we are calculating with hypothetical assumptions. I have mentioned several times that we must probably adapt to a new reality of lower P/E ratios and lower CAPE ratios. We got so used to these extremely high valuation multiples for several years now that we assume they are the norm. But the last few years have been an extreme outlier – stocks are not trading for a CAPE ratio of 30.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36fea4051eb380f769451c28a6ec244f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"930\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Advisor Perspectives</p><p>Usually, I offer an intrinsic value by using a discount cash flow calculation. For such a calculation we must make several assumptions and in case of Amazon it is extremely difficult to make these assumptions as the company is lacking consistency. We could assume operating margin to improve again in the coming quarters and Amazon still growing its top line in the mid-to-high teens and we get an extremely undervalued stock. But we could also argue that growth rates will slow down, the recession will hit Amazon hard, and profitability will decline even further in a challenging macroeconomic environment and the stock remains overvalued.</p><p><b>Technical Picture</b></p><p>Instead of trying to calculate an intrinsic value for the stock I will rather focus on the chart and the sentiment surrounding stocks – especially high-growth companies (which are close to being unprofitable).</p><p>I already started writing parts of this article about two weeks ago before earnings were reported. At that point I theorized that the stock could go up to $145 again. But I didn’t consider that scenario to be very realistic. Instead, I rather assumed the stock to decline to $100 again. And while I expected the stock to break below $100 at some point in the next few months, I didn’t think it would happen so quickly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f71c53acbba04e624687d34078dd49\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TradingView</p><p>When looking at the chart, we can identify two strong support levels for Amazon. And a first reasonable mid-term target for the stock over the next few months is between $65 and $72. At that level we find not only the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the last upward wave, but also the lows of the late 2018 correction. Additionally, we have a long-term trendline connecting the lows of the Dotcom bubble crash and the Great Financial Crisis. At $65, we are already looking at a 65% decline, but I don’t want to bet on Amazon already finding its cyclical bottom there.</p><p>A next potential support level would be around $45 where we find the 23% Fibonacci retracement as well as the 200-months moving average. And especially the latter is often the target for stocks in steep corrections. At that point we are looking at a 76% decline, which might seem extreme right now but is possible. And I would also not be surprised if Amazon goes even lower – depending on how the next recession and bear market play out.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Amazon is not extremely expensive anymore. However, I don’t see Amazon as the extreme bargain many other contributors are seeing (when scrolling through the articles, I only see bullish and extremely bullish views about Amazon).</p><p>I avoided Amazon as an investment for a long time, as I considered the stock as being just too expensive. Now, Amazon is certainly getting to price regions where the stock is starting to get interesting, but I won’t pull the trigger yet, as Amazon is still above the cycle bottom in my opinion. Investors have not priced in what is about to come for the economy as well as the stock market. And when comparing Amazon to other big tech companies – like Alphabet or Meta Platforms – the stock is still trading for rather high valuation multiples making it vulnerable to downside risk. I personally will get interested in Amazon when it is trading for $65 to $70.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Buying Opportunity In The Making</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Buying Opportunity In The Making\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-09 20:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4554856-amazon-buying-opportunity-in-the-making><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAmazon reported quarterly results a few days ago, and especially due to the weak guidance for Q4/22, the stock declined about 20% the following trading days.While AWS will continue to perform ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4554856-amazon-buying-opportunity-in-the-making\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4554856-amazon-buying-opportunity-in-the-making","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147357388","content_text":"SummaryAmazon reported quarterly results a few days ago, and especially due to the weak guidance for Q4/22, the stock declined about 20% the following trading days.While AWS will continue to perform quite well, the other two segments will probably suffer in an upcoming recession.Amazon is investing heavily again, which has had a negative effect on the bottom line and, with decreased spending in the future, higher operating income is possible.In my opinion, Amazon stock will go lower in the coming months and quarters, and $65 seems like a first good entry point, with a high risk of Amazon stock declining even lower.In my last article about Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) in March 2022, I asked the question if Amazon is finally a buy (at that point, the stock was trading for $142). In my conclusion I wrote:I am rather neutral on Amazon right now and I think it is possible that the support level will hold, and the stock might move higher again. However, I don't know if Amazon can set new all-time highs in the foreseeable future. And I also don't think that Amazon is a bargain right now or a great investment. The company is without any doubt a great business and will be able to grow with a high pace for several years to come - but at current valuation multiples, it has to be.We now know the support level did not hold and the stock declined to the next support level around $100 (back then it was about $2,000 in the not split-adjusted chart). In the meantime, Amazon stock already bounced back to the previous support level around $145 and then declined again – and the last quarterly earnings really accelerated that decline and pushed the stock down to only $90.Quarterly ResultsAt a first glance, the result doesn’t seem so bad, and one won’t necessary expect a 20% decline that followed in the days since earnings were reported on October 27, 2022. While the company beat on earnings per share expectations, it missed revenue expectations, but only by $370 million. This seems neglectable when considering total net sales of $127,101 million in Q3/22. Compared to the same quarter last year ($110,812 million in net sales), the top line increased 14.7% year-over-year. While net product sales increased from $54,876 million to $59,340 million (resulting in 8.1% year-over-year growth), net service sales increased from $55,936 million to $67,761 million (resulting in 21.1% growth).But while the top line increased, operating income declined 48.0% YoY from $4,852 million in Q3/21 to $2,525 million in Q3/22. And diluted earnings per share also declined from $0.31 in the same quarter last year to $0.28 this quarter.The biggest disappointment for investors was probably the company’s guidance for the fourth quarter. Amazon is expecting net sales to be between $140.0 billion and $148.0 billion, reflecting only between 2% and 8% growth compared to Q4/22 (the guidance anticipates an unfavorable impact from foreign exchange rates of 460 basis point). Operating income is expected to be between $0 and $4.0 billion, compared to $3.5 billion in the same quarter last year. And any growth rate below 7% would be the lowest quarterly growth rate for a long time (probably the lowest growth rate ever).AWS: Cash CowWhen looking at the different segments, the picture is quite similar as in the last few quarters and years. Amazon Web Services, which was already launched in 2002, continues to be the cash cow for Amazon, and it is the segment which is generating almost all the operating income. In the third quarter of fiscal 2022, AWS generated $20,538 million in net sales. Compared to the same quarter last year, this resulted in 27% year-over-year growth (28% in FX adjusted numbers). Operating income in Q3/22 was $5,403 million, resulting in 11% year-over-year growth.Amazon Q3/22 PresentationAnd as we can see in the chart below, Amazon is the clear market leader in a fast-growing market. In Q4/21, Amazon AWS had a market share of 33% and was clearly ahead of its two main competitors – Microsoft (MSFT) with Microsoft Azure and Alphabet (GOOG,GOOGL) with Google Cloud.VisualCapitalistIn my previous article about Alphabet, I already mentioned the fast-growing cloud market. Alphabet stated in a recent presentation that the cloud market is still in its early stage. According to this presentation, the public cloud services spendings are expected to double between 2022 and 2026, and not only Alphabet will profit from this trend but Amazon as well.Alphabet Q3/22 PresentationAnd this is backed up by several different studies (seehereandhere) andforecaststhat also expect high growth rates for the cloud business in the years to come.Retail: StrugglingWhile AWS is continuing to grow at a high pace and is very profitable for Amazon, the retail business of Amazon – which is responsible for the biggest part of revenue – seems to struggle once again. The North America segment could still grow the top line at a solid pace, with increased revenue 20% year-over-year, from $65,557 million in the same quarter last year to $78,743 million this quarter. But while the segment could generate an operating profit of $880 million in the same quarter last year, it is now reporting an operating loss of $142 million.Amazon Q3/22 PresentationAnd not only its North America segment was unprofitable this quarter. Its international segment was also unprofitable once again and reported an operating loss of $2,466 million (compared to an operating loss of $911 million in the same quarter last year). Additionally, the segment also had to report declining sales. Compared to $29,145 million in Q3/21, sales in Q3/22 were only $27,720 resulting in 5% year-over-year decline. However, this was in large parts due to currency effects – FX adjusted, sales increased 12% year-over-year.Amazon Q3/22 PresentationSo, to be honest, results are not so bad. Both segments are not profitable (we will get to this later) but the mediocre top line results are also due to the strong dollar which affected Amazon’s business – like it affected many other U.S. businesses.And when looking at the expectations for the holiday sales, analysts and the NRF, the National Retail Federation, are quite optimistic. For the months of November and December 2022,holiday sales are expectedto be between $942.6 million and $960.4 million– resulting in 6% to 8% year-over-year growth, which is quite an optimistic forecast. Compared to the last two years (with growth rates of 9.3% in 2020 and 13.5% in 2021), this seems moderate.NRFAnd when looking at longer timeframes, growth expectations are also high – not only for the holiday sales. While retail sales are expected to grow only with a CAGR of 3.70% between 2021 and 2026 (according to Statista), ecommerce sales are expected to grow with a much higher pace (and Amazon is generating most of its sales online). For the years from 2023 till 2026, analysts are expecting ecommerce sales to growabout 12% annually.eMarketer // InsiderIntelligenceNow we must question if these growth expectations are realistic – especially as we are seeing strong signs for the economy crumbling and not only in the United States of America. Aside from the stock market declining about 20% (which is an early warning indicator), theyield curve inverted recently(one of the best warning signs for a recession) anddisposable income per capitais also declining for several months in a row now.In a recession, we usually see spendings decline and here we must take a closer look at Amazon’s revenue streams. About 16% stem from AWS (see section above), and companies might cut back on spendings here – although these are fundamental services for a business. An additional 7% of revenue is stemming from subscription services, and due to switching costs we can be confident to see numbers be at least stable (many people rely on Amazon Prime for free shipping as well as the video and music content).But about 42% of revenue stems from online stores, and about 23% stems from third-party sellers. And in both cases, we must assume consumers spending is less, which could lead to declining revenue for Amazon (or at least lower growth rates). An additional 8% of revenue is stemming from advertising and these are classical examples for businesses to cut spendings.All in all, we should be rather cautious about Amazon’s top line growth in the next few quarters. And we should even think about the possibility of declining revenue in some quarters – depending on how extreme the recession gets.Investing in the futureAnd while declining revenue (or slower growth rates) could be an issue in the coming quarters, the bottom-line results already are a reason for concern right now. Since the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021, free cash flow is negative again (when looking at the TTM numbers). And while Amazon has done a pretty good job of convincing investors to focus on top line growth and ignore profitability (something Meta Platforms (META) is failing horrible right now), investors also seem to be concerned about Amazon as well.And I must be honest: I am also a bit irritated that Amazon, a business which is almost 30 years old and one of the major corporations in the world, is failing once again to be profitable. On the other hand, it is good to invest in the future, and we should be confident these investments will pay off.We will especially focus on the operating expenses, as these amounts will mostly driver future growth – they include sales, marketing, research, and development. And while Amazon spent about 35% of its revenue on operating expenses in the years 2019 till 2021, it spent over 40% in the last four quarters. And when comparing Amazon to other retail companies, the difference is huge. Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Kroger (KR), for example, are spending about 20% of revenue on operating expenses (Target is spending a little more than the other two). Amazon is spending twice as much of its revenue, and when this spending pays off, Amazon will probably profit in the future by higher growth rates and higher sales.Total Operating Expenses % of revenue201920212021TTMAmazon35.81%33.64%36.74%40.46%Walmart20.59%20.01%20.57%20.54%Target23.71%22.21%20.73%20.79%Kroger20.59%21.59%20.03%19.24%Of course, the long-term goal should be to spend only as much as necessary and cut cost of revenue as well as operating expenses as this will increase profitability. In case of Amazon, we can see that the company was able to lower its costs of revenue (as percentage of revenue) constantly during the last decade, while operating expenses increased over time.But if Amazon can lower its operating expenses over time – and therefore increase operating margin it can be extremely profitable. And it doesn’t even have to lower its operating expenses to 20% of revenue like Walmart or Target – 30% to 35% is enough to multiply its operating income.Intrinsic Value CalculationAnd these increased spendings led to Amazon trading for extremely high valuation multiples once again. As free cash flow is negative, we can’t calculate a reasonable P/FCF ratio at this point. The P/E ratio however is 83 right now and although this is below the 5-year average (which is 105), we can’t really argue that a P/E ratio of almost 100 is cheap in any way. Such a high P/E ratio is even difficult to justify with high growth rates.Data by YChartsHowever, it can be justified – at least in parts – by extraordinary high operating expenses, which might not only result in higher revenue growth but also in higher operating income once the high expenditures are reduced again. If we assume only about 35% of revenue spent as operating expenses in addition to 57% of revenue for costs of revenue, we will get an operating margin around 8% and an operating income of $40,000 right now. This would result in earnings per share around $3.50 in my opinion (considering taxes and interest expenses) and Amazon would therefore trade for a P/E ratio of 26.This is a much more reasonable P/E ratio, but still a bit high in current market conditions – and we are calculating with hypothetical assumptions. I have mentioned several times that we must probably adapt to a new reality of lower P/E ratios and lower CAPE ratios. We got so used to these extremely high valuation multiples for several years now that we assume they are the norm. But the last few years have been an extreme outlier – stocks are not trading for a CAPE ratio of 30.Advisor PerspectivesUsually, I offer an intrinsic value by using a discount cash flow calculation. For such a calculation we must make several assumptions and in case of Amazon it is extremely difficult to make these assumptions as the company is lacking consistency. We could assume operating margin to improve again in the coming quarters and Amazon still growing its top line in the mid-to-high teens and we get an extremely undervalued stock. But we could also argue that growth rates will slow down, the recession will hit Amazon hard, and profitability will decline even further in a challenging macroeconomic environment and the stock remains overvalued.Technical PictureInstead of trying to calculate an intrinsic value for the stock I will rather focus on the chart and the sentiment surrounding stocks – especially high-growth companies (which are close to being unprofitable).I already started writing parts of this article about two weeks ago before earnings were reported. At that point I theorized that the stock could go up to $145 again. But I didn’t consider that scenario to be very realistic. Instead, I rather assumed the stock to decline to $100 again. And while I expected the stock to break below $100 at some point in the next few months, I didn’t think it would happen so quickly.TradingViewWhen looking at the chart, we can identify two strong support levels for Amazon. And a first reasonable mid-term target for the stock over the next few months is between $65 and $72. At that level we find not only the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the last upward wave, but also the lows of the late 2018 correction. Additionally, we have a long-term trendline connecting the lows of the Dotcom bubble crash and the Great Financial Crisis. At $65, we are already looking at a 65% decline, but I don’t want to bet on Amazon already finding its cyclical bottom there.A next potential support level would be around $45 where we find the 23% Fibonacci retracement as well as the 200-months moving average. And especially the latter is often the target for stocks in steep corrections. At that point we are looking at a 76% decline, which might seem extreme right now but is possible. And I would also not be surprised if Amazon goes even lower – depending on how the next recession and bear market play out.ConclusionAmazon is not extremely expensive anymore. However, I don’t see Amazon as the extreme bargain many other contributors are seeing (when scrolling through the articles, I only see bullish and extremely bullish views about Amazon).I avoided Amazon as an investment for a long time, as I considered the stock as being just too expensive. Now, Amazon is certainly getting to price regions where the stock is starting to get interesting, but I won’t pull the trigger yet, as Amazon is still above the cycle bottom in my opinion. Investors have not priced in what is about to come for the economy as well as the stock market. And when comparing Amazon to other big tech companies – like Alphabet or Meta Platforms – the stock is still trading for rather high valuation multiples making it vulnerable to downside risk. I personally will get interested in Amazon when it is trading for $65 to $70.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987738638,"gmtCreate":1667988609424,"gmtModify":1676537995182,"author":{"id":"3586741802190308","authorId":"3586741802190308","name":"in_deep_red","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b428b6bee1937061822da4d8a206e8cb","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586741802190308","idStr":"3586741802190308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987738638","repostId":"1174844507","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174844507","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668008304,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174844507?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-09 23:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"History Points to a Post-Midterm Rally: Oppenheimer Suggests 3 Stocks to Ride the Momentum","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174844507","media":"TipRanks","summary":"America goes to the only poll that counts, and tomorrow morning we’ll have a better picture of the n","content":"<div>\n<p>America goes to the only poll that counts, and tomorrow morning we’ll have a better picture of the next Congress. All indications point toward a hefty GOP win, and a consequent legislative check on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/history-points-to-a-post-midterm-rally-oppenheimer-suggests-3-stocks-to-ride-the-momentum\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>History Points to a Post-Midterm Rally: Oppenheimer Suggests 3 Stocks to Ride the Momentum</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHistory Points to a Post-Midterm Rally: Oppenheimer Suggests 3 Stocks to Ride the Momentum\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-09 23:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/history-points-to-a-post-midterm-rally-oppenheimer-suggests-3-stocks-to-ride-the-momentum><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>America goes to the only poll that counts, and tomorrow morning we’ll have a better picture of the next Congress. All indications point toward a hefty GOP win, and a consequent legislative check on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/history-points-to-a-post-midterm-rally-oppenheimer-suggests-3-stocks-to-ride-the-momentum\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BMRN":"拜玛林制药","DASH":"DoorDash, Inc.","PLYA":"Playa Hotels & Resorts NV"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/history-points-to-a-post-midterm-rally-oppenheimer-suggests-3-stocks-to-ride-the-momentum","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174844507","content_text":"America goes to the only poll that counts, and tomorrow morning we’ll have a better picture of the next Congress. All indications point toward a hefty GOP win, and a consequent legislative check on the Democratic Administration.As for the stock market, if we look back at the past 70 years or so, we find reason for hope no matter the results of the vote. That’s because stocks have rallied after every single mid-term election since the Second World War. It’s no flash-in-the-pan effect either. According to the data, the S&P 500 shows gains for up to a year after a mid-term vote. And with the markets going into election day after 10 months of losses, there’s plenty of room for them to climb back up.In the words of Oppenheimer’s chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus, “Market history suggests to us that regardless of which party is considered the victor in the mid-term elections a rally of some kind is likely in the equity markets near term.”While Stoltzfus acknowledges that there are multiple issues which will drive markets into next year, the immediate post-election period should see a rally in stocks. Chalk it up to clarity; investors never like uncertain situations, and putting the elections behind us will add a degree of predictability to the next few months.So let’s assume that we’re in for a short-term rally in stocks. The question then become, which stocks to pick? And that’s where the stock analysts at Oppenheimer can help us. They’ve followed Stoltzfus’ lead, and picked out three equities that are likely to gain as the markets pick up some upward momentum. We’ve used the TipRanks platform to find out what makes them tick. Let’s take a closer look.DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)The first Oppenheimer pick is DoorDash, a Silicon Valley company in the world of online food ordering and food delivery services. The company boasts a market share of approximately 56%, making it the undisputed leader in the on-demand delivery niche. The service is accessed through a mobile app, and operates in 27 countries around the world, and from the beginning of 2020 through to 3Q22, the company has generated over $70 billion in sales for affiliated merchants along with more than $25 billion in cumulative earnings for its drivers.Taking a look at the 3Q numbers, we find that DoorDash has reported rising revenue in each of the last five quarters. The current top line is $1.7 billion, up 33% year-over-year. This was supported by 27% y/y growth in total orders, to 439 million for the quarter, and a 30% gain in marketplace gross order volume, which hit $13.5 billion.The total order number was the key for the company, as it exceeded Wall Street’s forecast of 433 million. Investors and analysts were also pleased by the revenue number, which came in above the $1.63 billion expectation.These beats compensated for a deeper-than-expected earnings loss. The net EPS loss of 77 cents was significantly higher than the 60-cent forecast.Oppenheimer’s 5-star analystJason Helfsteinlooks at the half-full glass and upgrades DoorDash shares from Neutral to Outperform (i.e. Buy). Helfstein also sets a $70 price target to indicate room for ~35% upside in the coming year.Backing his stance, Helfstein wrote, “Increased disclosure shows improving US restaurant margins… As such, we forecast ’25 EBITDA of $1.5B, with GOV margins of 1.8%, up from 0.7% in ’22E. We forecast US restaurant contribution margins improving from 5.7% in ’22E to 6.1% in ’25E, with Int’l. & US non-restaurant contribution margins improving from -13.4% in ’22E to -2.4% in ’25E—based on 4–5% incremental margins. 3Q showed continued strength, despite uncertain macro.”“We believe DoorDash can leverage its early focus on suburban markets to gain traction in Tier-1 markets and continue expanding its current market leader position,” the analyst summed up.Overall, there are 14 recent analyst reviews on file for DoorDash and they break down to 8 Buys against 6 Holds, for a Moderate Buy consensus rating. The stock is currently trading for $52.27 and has an $84.07 average price target; this implies ~61% potential gain in the next 12 months.Playa Hotels & Resorts(PLYA)The leisure industry was hit hard by the COVID lockdowns, but it has been enjoying a renaissance since last year, when economies began opening up and travel restrictions were loosened. The second stock our list, Playa Hotels, is owner, operator, and developer of hotel and resort locations in Mexico and the Caribbean. The company has 25 locations, at prime beachfronts, in Mexico, Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic, with a total of 9,352 rooms.The company reported its 3Q22 numbers earlier this week, and key figure to focus on was the occupancy rate. Playa reported that 73.8% of its rooms were occupied during the third quarter, a huge increase from the 59.3% reported in the year-ago period. The company’s total revenue, of $204.6 million, was up 35% year-over-year, and the adjusted net income came to $5.9 million – which compared favorably to the $13.7 million adjusted net loss in 3Q21. The company has been benefiting from high consumer demand for leisure travel and activities, post-COVID.Covering PLYA for Oppenheimer, analyst Tyler Batory takes an upbeat view of the company, noting: “We continue to think PLYA is well positioned to take advantage of leisure travel demand and should benefit from increased recognition of the all-inclusive business model by consumers. We also think it’s a positive that the company has not seen an increase in cancellation activity or a slowdown in booking demand outside of hurricane-related activity.”Following from this optimistic outlook, Batory gives the stock an Outperform (i.e. Buy) rating, and his $13 price target suggests it has a robust one-year gain of 121% ahead of it.This international resort operator has picked up 3 recent reviews on Wall Street – and those reviews are all positive, making for a unanimous Strong Buy consensus rating on the stock. Shares in PLYA are trading for $5.88 and the $12.33 average price target implies a 110% gain in the year ahead.BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN)We’ll now shift to the biotech sector, where BioMarin Pharmaceutical is a pioneer in the treatment of rare genetic diseases. The company is working on the development and commercialization of new therapeutic agents for genetic-based diseases that cause debilitating or life-threatening conditions, and that currently lack any effective treatments.In addition to an active research pipeline, BioMarin also has a line-up of seven approved drugs currently on the market. These products generated over $464 million in revenues in 3Q22, out of $505 million total at the top line. The product revenues were up 26% year-over-year, and drove a total y/y revenue gain of 24%.The company’s lead revenue generator is Vimizim, a treatment for the genetic enzyme disorder Morquio A, which causes severe damage to bone, cartilage, and ligament tissues. BioMarin realized $155.5 million in Q3 revenue from Vimizim, up 14% from the year-ago period. The company’s drug Naglazyme showed the largest y/y revenue gain among the product line. This medication, a treatment for the progressive wasting condition Maroteaux-Lamy syndrome, saw revenues grow 40% y/y to reach $99.5 million.Turning to the company’s pipeline, the leading drug candidate is valoctocogene roxaparvovec, branded as roctavian. This is a new AAV gene therapy treatment for adult sufferers of hemophilia A. The drug has completed clinical trials and received approval for use in the European Union, and the approval process with the FDA, following the Biologics License Application, is progressing. The current PDUFA is March 31, 2023 – although there is a possibility of extending that by 3 months should the FDA require additional information.This is another stock that got a recent upgrade from Oppenheimer. AnalystLeland Gershellbumped the shares up from Neutral to Outperform (i.e. Buy), while setting a $110 price target that implies an upside of ~35% by the end of next year.Gershell believes BMRN is set for outperformance, noting: “Roctavian is in review for potential late March FDA approval for severe hemophilia A, tangible signs of reimbursement progress are being made as it enters European markets, Voxzogo is enjoying a strong global launch in achondroplasia, and BMRN is turning toward consistent profitability and positive cash flow generation—yet share shave only modestly risen above indices in 2022 (-8% vs. NBI -12% YTD). As we enter 2023, we believe the market’s increasing recognition of improving fundamentals and greater comfort around near- (and potentially longer) term revenue opportunities will translate into more pronounced outperformance.”Overall, it’s clear from the 13 recent analyst reviews that Wall Street likes this stock. The reviews include 11 Buys to 2 Holds for a Strong Buy consensus rating, and the $103.77 average price target suggests a 27% one-year upside from the trading price of $81.33.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BMRN":0.9,"PLYA":0.9,"DASH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}