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pkl
pkl
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2022-05-23
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Financial report preview | Whether Nvidia can return as the king, the Q1 financial report is crucial!
英伟达计划于美东时间5月25日美股收盘后公布截至4月30日的2023财年Q1业绩。在上一季度财报中，英伟达预估本季度（2023财年Q1）营收为81.0亿美元（上下波动2%），高于预期72.2亿美元；预
Financial report preview | Whether Nvidia can return as the king, the Q1 financial report is crucial!
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pkl
pkl
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2022-05-23
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How much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?
在刚刚对新增的首套房贷利率下限下调了20个基点后，存量房贷也迎来重大利好。5月20日，央行公布LPR报价，一年期LPR维持不变仍为3.7%。但对于房贷人群影响重大的5年期以上LPR，从4.6%大幅下调
How much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?
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pkl
pkl
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2022-05-23
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The revenue is stable, the premium still exists, Zoom continues to cut meat with a blunt knife?
概括：ZM股票从2020年10月的高点急剧下跌，但其仍具有显著的增长溢价。尽管溢价需要消化，但市场并未给Zoom投资者任何喘息的机会。我们将评级从买入调整为卖出，估计在达到显著底部之前可能存在27%的
The revenue is stable, the premium still exists, Zoom continues to cut meat with a blunt knife?
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pkl
pkl
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2022-05-23
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pkl
pkl
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2022-05-23
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pkl
pkl
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2022-05-17
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pkl
pkl
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2022-05-17
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Who is the second Tesla? Soros is betting heavily on this
现在说起电动车，全球投资者头脑中浮现的第一个品牌基本都是特斯拉。随着电动车产业的发展，除特斯拉之外还有400多个大大小小的品牌，这其中一定会出现一家或几家可以和特斯拉相抗衡的企业，索罗斯就重金押注其中
Who is the second Tesla? Soros is betting heavily on this
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pkl
pkl
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2022-05-06
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Are 30,000 shareholders high? This A-share was once on the verge of delisting, but now it wants to "pick the stars"?
昨晚多家ST股宣布退市，今晚（6日），一度濒临退市的*ST澄星发布公告称，将申请撤销股票退市风险警示及实施其他风险警示。6日盘间，一直在跌停板上趴着的*ST澄星在13：30分时，突然翘板，直线拉升，一
Are 30,000 shareholders high? This A-share was once on the verge of delisting, but now it wants to "pick the stars"?
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pkl
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2022-04-28
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2022-04-28
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18:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Financial report preview | Whether Nvidia can return as the king, the Q1 financial report is crucial!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237286827","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"英伟达计划于美东时间5月25日美股收盘后公布截至4月30日的2023财年Q1业绩。在上一季度财报中，英伟达预估本季度（2023财年Q1）营收为81.0亿美元（上下波动2%），高于预期72.2亿美元；预","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>It is planned to announce the Q1 results of fiscal year 2023 ending April 30 after the U.S. stock market closes on May 25, Eastern Time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcf0217d1952bf8213351c45058c163\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>In the last quarter's financial report,<b>Nvidia estimates this quarter (</b>Q1 FY 2023<b>) Revenue of $8.10 billion (fluctuating 2% up and down), higher than expectations of $7.22 billion; It is estimated that the adjusted gross profit margin in the first quarter is 67.0% (fluctuating 0.5% up and down); Adjusted operating expenses are expected to be $1.60 billion, higher than the expected value of $1.46 billion.</b></p><p>The current market consensus estimate is that the company's Q1 total revenue will be US $8.09 billion and earnings per share (EPS) will be US $1.29, compared with total revenue of US $5.66 billion and earnings per share of US $0.92 in the same period last year.<b>Judging from historical data, Nvidia's total revenue and EPS have exceeded market expectations for 12 consecutive quarters.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72b8471534ea7cbf42bf3e0014e3a9ad\" tg-width=\"1524\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4501b7b3af70f7391780ecbb8d2a4be\" tg-width=\"1507\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>The market value has been halved, can Nvidia \"buy the bottom\"?</b></p><p>Nvidia hit an all-time high of $346.47 in November last year as strong demand and a global chip shortage sparked interest in the stock. Since then, concerns about a slowing economy and the outlook for rate hike have weighed on the stock, which is now down nearly 50% from its all-time high set late last year and 40% this year alone.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/497d3d251c9e30cdcc2f07e12a9e32f4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>From</b><b><b>From the perspective of valuation, it is gradually reasonable</b></b></p><p>In terms of valuation, Nvidia still has a \"best-in-class\" premium to its relatively smaller competitors. From the perspective of expected P/E, Nvidia's value is still 30x, compared with its competitor AMD's 22x expected P/E, and other competitors' expectations for P/E are also relatively low.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Is 19x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Is 12x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Is 10x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Is 6x.</p><p>At present, the 1-year valuation of Nvidia's stock has been significantly lower than the average level and is at the lowest level of the 1-year period. Some analysts believe that this shows that,<span style=\"color:rgba(236,31,15,1);\"><b>If the latest results and guidance can match or even exceed market expectations, then this will be an excellent time for long-term investors to buy the company's stock at a reasonable valuation.</b></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/207b753f81610ea29fae2accce1ef43d\" tg-width=\"443\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Wall Street is bullish, Q1 is stable?</b></p><p>The market's expectations for Nvidia's first fiscal quarter are still high. Analysts expect revenue and profit to increase by more than 40% year-on-year. However, the global chip shortage may affect Nvidia. After all, Nvidia is an upstream Fab (chip designer) and is very dependent on foundry capacity. Last month, Nvidia noted that it was stepping up efforts to replenish its inventory of graphics processing products (GPU products), suggesting that the worst of the company's chip shortages may have passed.</p><p>Some analysts pointed out that although this bodes well for sales growth, the average selling price (ASP) of the company's products may be reduced due to the decline in demand, and may damage the company's profit margin value that has continued to amaze the market in the past. Analysts generally said that,<b>Will be watching closely for signals in the latest quarterly results report regarding any change in the balance of supply and demand for chips.</b></p><p><b>Agency Oppenheimer said that due to strong demand, Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report may be better than expected, and its data center business is expected to grow 75% year-on-year.</b></p><p>Oppenheimer analysts expect that,<span style=\"color:rgba(235,34,19,1);\">Fiscal first-quarter earnings per share and sales will beat Wall Street estimates of $1.30 and $8.1 billion, respectively.</span>The company expects that,<span style=\"color:rgba(242,34,18,1);\">Fiscal second-quarter EPS and sales will beat consensus estimates of $1.36 and $8.4 billion, respectively.</span></p><p>Oppenheimer said supply chain constraints should ease in the second half of the year, which is expected to drive results upside. \"Our long-term thesis remains unchanged as Nvidia's core leading gaming and AI strengths will remain poised for oversized structural growth,\" the analyst said. \"We remain long-term bullish on Nvidia.\"</p><p>Oppenheimer lowered his price target on Nvidia to $300 from $350, while reiterating its Outperform rating. The new target price shows that,<b>Nvidia's stock has a 77% upside.</b></p><p>Of the 44 analysts surveyed by Seeking Alpha, 27 have a \"strong buy\" rating. Another 8 companies marked it as \"buy\". Meanwhile, only one analyst listed Nvidia as a \"sell,\" while another eight listed it as a \"hold.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095d79d9ef83e42e91f4456852ad50b\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"214\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>At the end of the article, \"pouring cold water\" on investors who are optimistic about Nvidia,<b>If the market risk appetite continues to decline, coupled with the latest earnings report disappointing the market, it may lead to the breaking of the stock's $165 support level and the possibility of falling further towards $150 or even further towards the May 2021 low.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Financial report preview | Whether Nvidia can return as the king, the Q1 financial report is crucial!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFinancial report preview | Whether Nvidia can return as the king, the Q1 financial report is crucial!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-23 18:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>It is planned to announce the Q1 results of fiscal year 2023 ending April 30 after the U.S. stock market closes on May 25, Eastern Time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcf0217d1952bf8213351c45058c163\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>In the last quarter's financial report,<b>Nvidia estimates this quarter (</b>Q1 FY 2023<b>) Revenue of $8.10 billion (fluctuating 2% up and down), higher than expectations of $7.22 billion; It is estimated that the adjusted gross profit margin in the first quarter is 67.0% (fluctuating 0.5% up and down); Adjusted operating expenses are expected to be $1.60 billion, higher than the expected value of $1.46 billion.</b></p><p>The current market consensus estimate is that the company's Q1 total revenue will be US $8.09 billion and earnings per share (EPS) will be US $1.29, compared with total revenue of US $5.66 billion and earnings per share of US $0.92 in the same period last year.<b>Judging from historical data, Nvidia's total revenue and EPS have exceeded market expectations for 12 consecutive quarters.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72b8471534ea7cbf42bf3e0014e3a9ad\" tg-width=\"1524\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4501b7b3af70f7391780ecbb8d2a4be\" tg-width=\"1507\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>The market value has been halved, can Nvidia \"buy the bottom\"?</b></p><p>Nvidia hit an all-time high of $346.47 in November last year as strong demand and a global chip shortage sparked interest in the stock. Since then, concerns about a slowing economy and the outlook for rate hike have weighed on the stock, which is now down nearly 50% from its all-time high set late last year and 40% this year alone.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/497d3d251c9e30cdcc2f07e12a9e32f4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>From</b><b><b>From the perspective of valuation, it is gradually reasonable</b></b></p><p>In terms of valuation, Nvidia still has a \"best-in-class\" premium to its relatively smaller competitors. From the perspective of expected P/E, Nvidia's value is still 30x, compared with its competitor AMD's 22x expected P/E, and other competitors' expectations for P/E are also relatively low.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Is 19x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Is 12x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Is 10x,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Is 6x.</p><p>At present, the 1-year valuation of Nvidia's stock has been significantly lower than the average level and is at the lowest level of the 1-year period. Some analysts believe that this shows that,<span style=\"color:rgba(236,31,15,1);\"><b>If the latest results and guidance can match or even exceed market expectations, then this will be an excellent time for long-term investors to buy the company's stock at a reasonable valuation.</b></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/207b753f81610ea29fae2accce1ef43d\" tg-width=\"443\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Wall Street is bullish, Q1 is stable?</b></p><p>The market's expectations for Nvidia's first fiscal quarter are still high. Analysts expect revenue and profit to increase by more than 40% year-on-year. However, the global chip shortage may affect Nvidia. After all, Nvidia is an upstream Fab (chip designer) and is very dependent on foundry capacity. Last month, Nvidia noted that it was stepping up efforts to replenish its inventory of graphics processing products (GPU products), suggesting that the worst of the company's chip shortages may have passed.</p><p>Some analysts pointed out that although this bodes well for sales growth, the average selling price (ASP) of the company's products may be reduced due to the decline in demand, and may damage the company's profit margin value that has continued to amaze the market in the past. Analysts generally said that,<b>Will be watching closely for signals in the latest quarterly results report regarding any change in the balance of supply and demand for chips.</b></p><p><b>Agency Oppenheimer said that due to strong demand, Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report may be better than expected, and its data center business is expected to grow 75% year-on-year.</b></p><p>Oppenheimer analysts expect that,<span style=\"color:rgba(235,34,19,1);\">Fiscal first-quarter earnings per share and sales will beat Wall Street estimates of $1.30 and $8.1 billion, respectively.</span>The company expects that,<span style=\"color:rgba(242,34,18,1);\">Fiscal second-quarter EPS and sales will beat consensus estimates of $1.36 and $8.4 billion, respectively.</span></p><p>Oppenheimer said supply chain constraints should ease in the second half of the year, which is expected to drive results upside. \"Our long-term thesis remains unchanged as Nvidia's core leading gaming and AI strengths will remain poised for oversized structural growth,\" the analyst said. \"We remain long-term bullish on Nvidia.\"</p><p>Oppenheimer lowered his price target on Nvidia to $300 from $350, while reiterating its Outperform rating. The new target price shows that,<b>Nvidia's stock has a 77% upside.</b></p><p>Of the 44 analysts surveyed by Seeking Alpha, 27 have a \"strong buy\" rating. Another 8 companies marked it as \"buy\". Meanwhile, only one analyst listed Nvidia as a \"sell,\" while another eight listed it as a \"hold.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7095d79d9ef83e42e91f4456852ad50b\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"214\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>At the end of the article, \"pouring cold water\" on investors who are optimistic about Nvidia,<b>If the market risk appetite continues to decline, coupled with the latest earnings report disappointing the market, it may lead to the breaking of the stock's $165 support level and the possibility of falling further towards $150 or even further towards the May 2021 low.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a41d20711c9fa4b2aa3cc62ea62948","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2237286827","content_text":"英伟达计划于美东时间5月25日美股收盘后公布截至4月30日的2023财年Q1业绩。在上一季度财报中，英伟达预估本季度（2023财年Q1）营收为81.0亿美元（上下波动2%），高于预期72.2亿美元；预估第一季度调整后的毛利率为67.0%（上下波动0.5%）；预计调整后的运营支出为16.0亿美元，高于预期值14.6亿美元。目前市场普遍预计，该公司Q1总营收为80.9亿美元，每股收益(EPS)为1.29美元，相比之下，上年同期总营收为56.6亿美元，每股收益为0.92美元。从历史数据来看，英伟达总营收与EPS已连续12个季度超出市场预期。市值腰斩，英伟达能“抄底”吗？英伟达去年11月曾触及346.47美元的历史高位，因需求旺盛和全球芯片短缺引发市场对该股的兴趣。自那以来，对经济放缓和加息前景的担忧一直令股价承压，与去年年底创下的历史高点相比，目前该股已下跌近50%，仅今年以来就下跌了40%。从估值看，逐渐合理估值方面，英伟达仍比规模相对其较小的竞争对手拥有“同类最佳”溢价。从预期市盈率来看，英伟达该项数值仍为30x，相比之下，其竞争对手AMD为22x预期市盈率，其他竞争对手预期市盈率同样相对较低，德州仪器为19x、英特尔为12x、高通为10x，美光科技为6x。目前，英伟达股票1年期估值已明显低于均值水平，处于1年期的最低水平区域。有分析人士认为，这表明，如果最新业绩和业绩指引能够持平甚至超过市场预期，那么这将是长期投资者以合理估值买入该公司股票的绝佳时机。华尔街看多，Q1稳了？市场对英伟达第一财季的预期仍然较高，分析师们预计营收和利润将同比增长40%以上，但是，全球芯片短缺可能将波及英伟达，毕竟英伟达属于上游Fab(芯片设计商)，非常依赖晶圆代工厂的产能。在上个月，英伟达曾指出，其正在加大力度补充图形处理产品(GPU产品)库存，暗示该公司芯片短缺最严重的时期可能已经过去。有分析师指出，虽然这是销售额增长的好兆头，但公司旗下产品的平均销售价格(ASP)可能因需求有所下滑而降低，并可能损害该公司过去持续令市场惊艳的利润率数值。分析师普遍表示，将密切关注最新季度业绩报告中有关任何芯片供需平衡发生变化的信号。机构奥本海默表示，由于需求强劲，英伟达第一季度财报可能好于预期，其数据中心业务预计同比增长75%。奥本海默分析师预计，第一财季每股收益和销售额将分别超过华尔街预期的1.30美元和81亿美元。该公司预计，第二财季每股收益和销售额将分别超过市场普遍预期的 1.36 美元和 84 亿美元。奥本海默表示，供应链限制应该会在今年下半年缓解，预计这将推动业绩上行。“我们的长期论点保持不变，因为英伟达的核心领先的游戏和 AI 优势仍将为超大的结构性增长做好准备，“分析师表示。” 我们仍长期看多英伟达。“奥本海默将英伟达的目标价从 350 美元下调至 300 美元，同时重申其表现优于大盘的评级。新的目标价显示，英伟达的股价有 77%的上行空间。在Seeking Alpha调查的44位分析师中，有27位给出了“强烈买入”的评级。另有8家公司将其标记为“购买”。与此同时，只有一名分析师将英伟达列为“卖出”，另有八名分析师将其列为“持有”。文末，在给看好英伟达的投资者“泼盆冷水”，如果市场风险偏好继续下行，加上最新财报令市场感到失望，可能导致该股165美元支撑水平被打破，并有可能进一步跌向150美元甚至有可能进一步滑向2021年5月低点附近。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026991736,"gmtCreate":1653310153325,"gmtModify":1676535257559,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026991736","repostId":"1101749478","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101749478","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653304230,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101749478?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 19:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101749478","media":"星图金融研究院","summary":"在刚刚对新增的首套房贷利率下限下调了20个基点后，存量房贷也迎来重大利好。5月20日，央行公布LPR报价，一年期LPR维持不变仍为3.7%。但对于房贷人群影响重大的5年期以上LPR，从4.6%大幅下调","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After just lowering the lower limit of the new first-home loan interest rate by 20 basis points, the existing mortgage loan has also ushered in major benefits. On May 20, the central bank announced the LPR quotation, and the one-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.7%. However, for the LPR of more than 5 years, which has a significant impact on the mortgage crowd, it was significantly reduced by 15 basis points from 4.6% to 4.45%, which greatly exceeded market expectations.</p><p>The real estate market is related to people's livelihood. Whether it is with or without a house, it is very related to every policy of real estate. Under the impact of the epidemic, there are many stimulus policies, but policies related to real estate can always easily make hot search headlines.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, hundreds of prefectures and cities have introduced various measures including but not limited to adjusting purchase restriction policies, reducing down payment ratios, issuing housing subsidies, revising sales restriction policies, encouraging families with multiple children to buy houses, and providing financial support for housing companies. The policy is not small, but from the real estate sales data, the effect is obviously very limited.</p><p>At the moment when it is constantly emphasized that \"housing is for living, not for speculation\", why have all localities relaxed the property market, and the central bank has also issued a heavy policy of \"lowering interest rates\"? What is the follow-up impact on the stock market, real estate market and individuals?</p><p><b>Why should we reduce both new and existing mortgage interest rates?</b></p><p>After the Politburo meeting in April re-emphasized the confirmation of this year's economic goal of \"steady growth\", how to achieve \"steady growth\" has become a concern for the market.</p><p>From the perspective of the troika of investment, consumption, and net exports, although consumption accounts for the largest proportion, residents' expectations have weakened, and coupled with the impact of the epidemic, it is difficult to boost it. In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 11.1% year-on-year. In terms of net exports, the policies of countries such as Europe and the United States have gradually shrunk, representing U.S. consumption expectations. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index has dropped to the lowest level in more than 10 years, and external demand is also difficult to continue to grow. In terms of investment, among the three items of infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing investment, manufacturing investment accounts for a small proportion and is affected by the current epidemic. Infrastructure and real estate have become an important starting point for \"steady growth\".<b>In order to \"stabilize growth\", under the current economic situation, it is necessary to stabilize real estate and develop infrastructure construction, and these two are precisely the main trends of the capital market in the first quarter.</b></p><p>Real estate has become the shortcoming of the current \"steady growth\". Faced with the weakness of the real estate industry, although since April this year, local governments around the world have begun to relax their real estate policies, by reducing the down payment ratio, providing housing subsidies, and canceling sales restrictions. and other policies to boost real estate sales. However, facts show that small regional stimulus policies are difficult to boost real estate market expectations. At the same time, the recent epidemic has further made it more difficult to restore real estate sales, and national stimulus policies are needed to further exert efforts to break the continuous negative feedback from the market. Judging from the fact that the upstream and downstream real estate contributes nearly 20% of GDP, it is necessary to appropriately reduce the mortgage interest rate of new house purchase demand and reverse residents' house purchase expectations, so as to achieve the goal of \"steady growth\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f4d06202d676cd782a5289d856ebe25\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the real estate industry, policy support is also needed to ease the pressure of giving up financing. The thunderstorms of private real estate bonds have put great pressure on financial stability. Although the policy has continuously released good news about private enterprise financing this year, the \"ghost story\" of real estate companies has frightened the capital market, and the path for real estate companies to refinance is almost frozen. By adjusting the mortgage interest rate and guiding residents to buy houses to increase the sales revenue of real estate companies, it can greatly improve the cash flow of real estate companies, and further help improve the financing capabilities of real estate companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94bae5d1a285d153a82286faa69bea6c\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If these are all \"slow factors\", then the cliff-like decline in social financing data in April is the key to trigger the real estate stimulus policy in the national sense. According to the April social financing data released by the central bank on May 13, new credit was \"halved\" year-on-year. In particular, in April, housing loans in the residential sector decreased by 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 402.2 billion yuan, contributing nearly half of the year-on-year credit decrease. This shows that residents are not only reluctant to buy houses, but even prefer to pay off their mortgages rather than add new loans. The hot search \"I feel relaxed to repay the mortgage\" has proved the psychological expectations and status of the current mortgage crowd to a certain extent. If the current expectation of residents' continuous reduction in leverage cannot be reversed, then the real estate sales data may further deteriorate, which is undoubtedly a great challenge for the \"steady growth\" of the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a94cc6e2c31bd183ae74e4256e4c9f\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Therefore, after the social financing data was released on May 13, the central bank quickly introduced this year's first national real estate stimulus policy on May 15, that is, lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate. For those who just need no house, it is a real preferential policy. Without considering other constraints, it can indeed stimulate the just-needed purchase demand. Of course, in real life, the mortgage interest rate is not the core contradiction that restricts consumers to buy houses, nor is it the primary consideration for consumers to buy houses. Lowering the mortgage interest rate has a limited effect on reversing expectations. But this at least represents the attitude of supervision towards the current real estate market, which is of great significance to the real estate financial policy at the national level.</p><p>After adjusting the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate, the market actually generally expects that the 5-year LPR will not be further adjusted on the LPR quotation announcement date on May 20. After all, the impact of the previous policy has not yet appeared, and the current monetary policy is still Affected by the internal and external pressures of the inverted interest rate spread between China and the United States and domestic inflation, the market generally expects the central bank to not further lower the LPR quotation. However, it is precisely for this reason that the 15 basis point reduction of the 5-year LPR greatly exceeded market expectations, and it is also the largest reduction after the LPR reform.</p><p>However, judging from the current market and economic situation, it is necessary to reduce the 5-year LPR. First, it lies in the strength of the policy. As mentioned earlier, the policy of \"lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate\" on May 13th has far greater signal significance than substantive significance. It is more due to the necessity of resolving real estate risks, implementing the easing signal of the Politburo, hedging the \"bad news\" of sluggish financial data, and boosting market expectations. However, the market is generally not optimistic about boosting real estate sales. Since the effectiveness of policies is limited, in order to stabilize real estate and economic growth, stronger policies are bound to be introduced to further reverse expectations.</p><p>The second is that compared with the incremental real estate market, the stock mortgage market is larger and the policy is more leveraged. After the May 3rd policy, many people reported on the Internet that they are now affected by the epidemic, and their income has been greatly reduced. They also need to lower interest rates to ease residents' loan repayment pressure. After the epidemic, more and more people have cut off their loans, and the number of foreclosure houses has increased significantly, all of which to a certain extent indicate the current loan pressure of repayers. At the same time, by lowering the 5-year LPR to alleviate the pressure of residents' interest expenses, it can also stimulate residents' consumption from the side to a certain extent, which is also the proper meaning of steady growth.</p><p><b>What is the follow-up impact?</b></p><p>First, let's talk about the impact on the capital market. Whether it is lowering the lower limit of personal first home loan interest rate by 20BP or lowering the 5-year LPR15BP, these can be said to be heavy real estate stimulus policies in the national sense that are rare after 2016. The signal is of great significance, so it will inevitably cause a huge wave of hype in the capital market. After the policy was released on May 13, the Wind Real Estate Index soared 4.37%, and the narrow trading day opened up 4.3%. However, the capital market has always valued expectations and is most afraid of \"boots landing\". After the LPR was announced on May 20, the real estate index fell by 1.2% instead of rising. For listed real estate companies, the policy goals may have reached an inflection point, but for those listed real estate companies that have already experienced thunderstorms and are about to experience thunderstorms, it is still unknown whether they can persist until the end. Therefore, the value of the current speculation of listed real estate companies does exist. As for the long-term investment value, it needs to be marked with a big question mark. After all, policy is not a panacea, and it is powerless for terminally ill patients.</p><p>The second is the impact on the real estate sales market. At present, real estate sales have experienced negative year-on-year growth for 10 consecutive months since July last year, and the decline is still increasing due to the recent impact of the epidemic. According to CRIC statistics, in April 2022, more than 90% of the TOP50 real estate companies experienced a year-on-year decline in full-scale sales in a single month, and the year-on-year decline was basically more than 30%. If the disturbance factors of the epidemic after May can be taken into account, there is a high probability that the real estate sales data will continue to be repaired in the second half of this year. At the same time, according to the historical experience of real estate regulation and control, the improvement of sales data will lag behind the decline of mortgage interest rates by about half a year. However, considering the impact of the epidemic on sales and the normalization of offline consumption activities, the improvement of real estate sales may It will still take a long time.</p><p>Finally, it is the impact on residents who buy new houses and those who are repaying their loans. First of all, for those who just need to buy a house, according to the policies after May 13 and May 20, the interest rate of the first suite can be as low as 4.25%, and the interest rate of the second suite can be as low as 5.05%. For just needs, it should be a very attractive interest rate. As for the questions that many people are concerned about, \"Do you want to get on the bus now, do you want to wait and see\", no one can buy it at an absolute low point. For those who just need it, the room for short-term follow-up LPR reduction is already very small. There is limited room for mortgage interest rates to fall, and it is already a relatively good time. Of course, when it comes to buying a house, different people have different opinions. There is no absolute correctness, but more personal needs.</p><p>Another type of people who are greatly affected are those who are repaying their loans. Generally speaking, banks use the 5-year LPR as the benchmark, add certain points, agree on the interest rate in the contract with the buyer, and adjust it once a year. If the interest rate adjustment date is after May 20th, the adjusted interest rate will be 0.15% lower than before the adjustment. As for many people who agree to adjust interest rates on January 1st of each year, they can only wait until next year to enjoy preferential interest rates. According to the estimate, if the loan is 500,000 yuan and the equal principal and interest are repaid for 30 years, the interest expense can be reduced by about 16,000 yuan in total.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1653304243615","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">星图金融研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-23 19:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After just lowering the lower limit of the new first-home loan interest rate by 20 basis points, the existing mortgage loan has also ushered in major benefits. On May 20, the central bank announced the LPR quotation, and the one-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.7%. However, for the LPR of more than 5 years, which has a significant impact on the mortgage crowd, it was significantly reduced by 15 basis points from 4.6% to 4.45%, which greatly exceeded market expectations.</p><p>The real estate market is related to people's livelihood. Whether it is with or without a house, it is very related to every policy of real estate. Under the impact of the epidemic, there are many stimulus policies, but policies related to real estate can always easily make hot search headlines.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, hundreds of prefectures and cities have introduced various measures including but not limited to adjusting purchase restriction policies, reducing down payment ratios, issuing housing subsidies, revising sales restriction policies, encouraging families with multiple children to buy houses, and providing financial support for housing companies. The policy is not small, but from the real estate sales data, the effect is obviously very limited.</p><p>At the moment when it is constantly emphasized that \"housing is for living, not for speculation\", why have all localities relaxed the property market, and the central bank has also issued a heavy policy of \"lowering interest rates\"? What is the follow-up impact on the stock market, real estate market and individuals?</p><p><b>Why should we reduce both new and existing mortgage interest rates?</b></p><p>After the Politburo meeting in April re-emphasized the confirmation of this year's economic goal of \"steady growth\", how to achieve \"steady growth\" has become a concern for the market.</p><p>From the perspective of the troika of investment, consumption, and net exports, although consumption accounts for the largest proportion, residents' expectations have weakened, and coupled with the impact of the epidemic, it is difficult to boost it. In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 11.1% year-on-year. In terms of net exports, the policies of countries such as Europe and the United States have gradually shrunk, representing U.S. consumption expectations. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index has dropped to the lowest level in more than 10 years, and external demand is also difficult to continue to grow. In terms of investment, among the three items of infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing investment, manufacturing investment accounts for a small proportion and is affected by the current epidemic. Infrastructure and real estate have become an important starting point for \"steady growth\".<b>In order to \"stabilize growth\", under the current economic situation, it is necessary to stabilize real estate and develop infrastructure construction, and these two are precisely the main trends of the capital market in the first quarter.</b></p><p>Real estate has become the shortcoming of the current \"steady growth\". Faced with the weakness of the real estate industry, although since April this year, local governments around the world have begun to relax their real estate policies, by reducing the down payment ratio, providing housing subsidies, and canceling sales restrictions. and other policies to boost real estate sales. However, facts show that small regional stimulus policies are difficult to boost real estate market expectations. At the same time, the recent epidemic has further made it more difficult to restore real estate sales, and national stimulus policies are needed to further exert efforts to break the continuous negative feedback from the market. Judging from the fact that the upstream and downstream real estate contributes nearly 20% of GDP, it is necessary to appropriately reduce the mortgage interest rate of new house purchase demand and reverse residents' house purchase expectations, so as to achieve the goal of \"steady growth\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f4d06202d676cd782a5289d856ebe25\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the real estate industry, policy support is also needed to ease the pressure of giving up financing. The thunderstorms of private real estate bonds have put great pressure on financial stability. Although the policy has continuously released good news about private enterprise financing this year, the \"ghost story\" of real estate companies has frightened the capital market, and the path for real estate companies to refinance is almost frozen. By adjusting the mortgage interest rate and guiding residents to buy houses to increase the sales revenue of real estate companies, it can greatly improve the cash flow of real estate companies, and further help improve the financing capabilities of real estate companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94bae5d1a285d153a82286faa69bea6c\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If these are all \"slow factors\", then the cliff-like decline in social financing data in April is the key to trigger the real estate stimulus policy in the national sense. According to the April social financing data released by the central bank on May 13, new credit was \"halved\" year-on-year. In particular, in April, housing loans in the residential sector decreased by 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 402.2 billion yuan, contributing nearly half of the year-on-year credit decrease. This shows that residents are not only reluctant to buy houses, but even prefer to pay off their mortgages rather than add new loans. The hot search \"I feel relaxed to repay the mortgage\" has proved the psychological expectations and status of the current mortgage crowd to a certain extent. If the current expectation of residents' continuous reduction in leverage cannot be reversed, then the real estate sales data may further deteriorate, which is undoubtedly a great challenge for the \"steady growth\" of the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a94cc6e2c31bd183ae74e4256e4c9f\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Therefore, after the social financing data was released on May 13, the central bank quickly introduced this year's first national real estate stimulus policy on May 15, that is, lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate. For those who just need no house, it is a real preferential policy. Without considering other constraints, it can indeed stimulate the just-needed purchase demand. Of course, in real life, the mortgage interest rate is not the core contradiction that restricts consumers to buy houses, nor is it the primary consideration for consumers to buy houses. Lowering the mortgage interest rate has a limited effect on reversing expectations. But this at least represents the attitude of supervision towards the current real estate market, which is of great significance to the real estate financial policy at the national level.</p><p>After adjusting the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate, the market actually generally expects that the 5-year LPR will not be further adjusted on the LPR quotation announcement date on May 20. After all, the impact of the previous policy has not yet appeared, and the current monetary policy is still Affected by the internal and external pressures of the inverted interest rate spread between China and the United States and domestic inflation, the market generally expects the central bank to not further lower the LPR quotation. However, it is precisely for this reason that the 15 basis point reduction of the 5-year LPR greatly exceeded market expectations, and it is also the largest reduction after the LPR reform.</p><p>However, judging from the current market and economic situation, it is necessary to reduce the 5-year LPR. First, it lies in the strength of the policy. As mentioned earlier, the policy of \"lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate\" on May 13th has far greater signal significance than substantive significance. It is more due to the necessity of resolving real estate risks, implementing the easing signal of the Politburo, hedging the \"bad news\" of sluggish financial data, and boosting market expectations. However, the market is generally not optimistic about boosting real estate sales. Since the effectiveness of policies is limited, in order to stabilize real estate and economic growth, stronger policies are bound to be introduced to further reverse expectations.</p><p>The second is that compared with the incremental real estate market, the stock mortgage market is larger and the policy is more leveraged. After the May 3rd policy, many people reported on the Internet that they are now affected by the epidemic, and their income has been greatly reduced. They also need to lower interest rates to ease residents' loan repayment pressure. After the epidemic, more and more people have cut off their loans, and the number of foreclosure houses has increased significantly, all of which to a certain extent indicate the current loan pressure of repayers. At the same time, by lowering the 5-year LPR to alleviate the pressure of residents' interest expenses, it can also stimulate residents' consumption from the side to a certain extent, which is also the proper meaning of steady growth.</p><p><b>What is the follow-up impact?</b></p><p>First, let's talk about the impact on the capital market. Whether it is lowering the lower limit of personal first home loan interest rate by 20BP or lowering the 5-year LPR15BP, these can be said to be heavy real estate stimulus policies in the national sense that are rare after 2016. The signal is of great significance, so it will inevitably cause a huge wave of hype in the capital market. After the policy was released on May 13, the Wind Real Estate Index soared 4.37%, and the narrow trading day opened up 4.3%. However, the capital market has always valued expectations and is most afraid of \"boots landing\". After the LPR was announced on May 20, the real estate index fell by 1.2% instead of rising. For listed real estate companies, the policy goals may have reached an inflection point, but for those listed real estate companies that have already experienced thunderstorms and are about to experience thunderstorms, it is still unknown whether they can persist until the end. Therefore, the value of the current speculation of listed real estate companies does exist. As for the long-term investment value, it needs to be marked with a big question mark. After all, policy is not a panacea, and it is powerless for terminally ill patients.</p><p>The second is the impact on the real estate sales market. At present, real estate sales have experienced negative year-on-year growth for 10 consecutive months since July last year, and the decline is still increasing due to the recent impact of the epidemic. According to CRIC statistics, in April 2022, more than 90% of the TOP50 real estate companies experienced a year-on-year decline in full-scale sales in a single month, and the year-on-year decline was basically more than 30%. If the disturbance factors of the epidemic after May can be taken into account, there is a high probability that the real estate sales data will continue to be repaired in the second half of this year. At the same time, according to the historical experience of real estate regulation and control, the improvement of sales data will lag behind the decline of mortgage interest rates by about half a year. However, considering the impact of the epidemic on sales and the normalization of offline consumption activities, the improvement of real estate sales may It will still take a long time.</p><p>Finally, it is the impact on residents who buy new houses and those who are repaying their loans. First of all, for those who just need to buy a house, according to the policies after May 13 and May 20, the interest rate of the first suite can be as low as 4.25%, and the interest rate of the second suite can be as low as 5.05%. For just needs, it should be a very attractive interest rate. As for the questions that many people are concerned about, \"Do you want to get on the bus now, do you want to wait and see\", no one can buy it at an absolute low point. For those who just need it, the room for short-term follow-up LPR reduction is already very small. There is limited room for mortgage interest rates to fall, and it is already a relatively good time. Of course, when it comes to buying a house, different people have different opinions. There is no absolute correctness, but more personal needs.</p><p>Another type of people who are greatly affected are those who are repaying their loans. Generally speaking, banks use the 5-year LPR as the benchmark, add certain points, agree on the interest rate in the contract with the buyer, and adjust it once a year. If the interest rate adjustment date is after May 20th, the adjusted interest rate will be 0.15% lower than before the adjustment. As for many people who agree to adjust interest rates on January 1st of each year, they can only wait until next year to enjoy preferential interest rates. According to the estimate, if the loan is 500,000 yuan and the equal principal and interest are repaid for 30 years, the interest expense can be reduced by about 16,000 yuan in total.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ytImsNQymGtnI0HjrLsPcA\">星图金融研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ytImsNQymGtnI0HjrLsPcA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101749478","content_text":"在刚刚对新增的首套房贷利率下限下调了20个基点后，存量房贷也迎来重大利好。5月20日，央行公布LPR报价，一年期LPR维持不变仍为3.7%。但对于房贷人群影响重大的5年期以上LPR，从4.6%大幅下调15个基点至4.45%，大超市场预期。房地产市场事关民生，无论是有房的还是没房的，都非常关房地产的每一项政策。疫情冲击之下，刺激政策繁多，但事关房地产的政策总是能够轻而易举地冲上热搜头条。今年以来，有上百个地市出台了各种包括但不限于调整限购政策、降低首付比例、发放购房补贴、限售政策修改、鼓励多孩家庭购房、为房企提供资金支持等方面。政策力度不可谓不大，但从房地产销售数据来看，效果显然十分有限。在不断强调“房住不炒”的当下，为何各地纷纷放松楼市，央行也出了“下调利率”这一重磅政策？后续对于股市、房地产市场以及个人来说，又有何影响呢？为何要对新增及存量房贷利率双降？在4月政治局会议再次强调确认今年“稳增长”的经济目标后，怎样才能做到“稳增长”成为市场担忧的问题。分别从投资、消费、净出口这三驾马车来看，消费虽然占比最大，但居民预期转弱，再叠加疫情的影响，难以提振，4月社会消费品零售总额更是同比下降11.1%。净出口方面，欧美等国家政策逐渐收缩，代表美国消费预期密歇根大学消费者信心指数降至10年多来最低水平，外需也同样难以继续增长。而投资方面，在基建、房地产、制造业投资三项中，制造业投资占比小且受当前疫情影响，基建与房地产就成为“稳增长”的重要抓手。要想“稳增长”，在当前的经济形势下，就必须要稳住房地产，发力基建，而这二者，也恰恰是一季度资本市场的主线行情。房地产已经成了当前“稳增长”的短板，面对地产行业的弱势，虽然从今年4月以来，各地的地方政府已纷纷开始放松地产政策，通过降低首付比例、提供购房补贴、取消限售等政策来提振地产销售。但事实表明，区域性小幅度的刺激政策难以提振房地产市场预期。同时，近期的疫情又进一步加大房地产销售修复的难度，需要全国性的刺激政策进一步发力来打破市场不断的负反馈。以房地产上下游贡献近20%的GDP来看，适当地降低新增购房需求的房贷利率，扭转居民购房预期，从而实现“稳增长”的目标，十分有必要。而对于房地产行业而言，缓解放弃融资压力也同样需要政策支持。民营房企债券的纷纷暴雷，给金融稳定带来了极大的压力。虽然今年以来政策不断释放民企融资的利好消息，但房企的“鬼故事”已经吓坏了资本市场，房企再融资的路径几乎冰封。通过调整房贷利率，引导居民购房增长房企销售收入，能够很好地改善房企的现金流，更进一步也有利于房企融资能力的改善。如果说这些都是“慢因素”，那四月社融数据的断崖式下跌，则是触发全国意义上的地产刺激政策的按键。根据央行在5月13日公布的4月社融数据，新增信贷同比“腰斩”，尤其是4月居民部门住房贷款减少了605亿元，同比少增4022亿元，贡献近半的信贷同比降幅。这表明，居民不仅不愿意买房子了，甚至宁愿还掉房贷，也不愿意新增贷款。冲上热搜的“还房贷觉得一身轻松”一定程度上已经证明了当前房贷人群的心理预期和状态。如果不能扭转当前这种居民不断降杠杆的预期，那么房地产销售数据可能会进一步恶化，这对于经济的“稳增长”而言，毫无疑问是极大的挑战。因此，在5月13日公布社融数据后，央行很快的就在5月15日出台了今年首个全国意义的上的房地产刺激政策，即降低首套住房按揭贷款利率下限，这对于刚需无房者而言，是一个确确实实的优惠政策。在不考虑其他约束条件下，也确实能够刺激刚需的购买需求。当然，在现实生活中，房贷利率并非约束消费者购房的核心矛盾，也非消费者购房决策的首要考虑因素，下调房贷利率对扭转预期的作用有限。但这最起码代表了监管对当前房地产市场呵护的态度，对于全国层面对房地产金融政策来说，意义重大。在调整了首套住房按揭贷款利率下限，市场其实普遍预期在5月20日的LPR报价公布日，5年期LPR不会做进一步调整，毕竟前一个政策的影响尚未显现，而且当前货币政策还受到中美利差倒挂与国内通胀的内外部压力，因此市场普遍预计央行不会进一步的下调LPR的报价。不过也正是因此，本次5年期LPR15个基点的下调幅度大超市场预期，同时也是LPR改革后最大降幅。不过如果从当前市场与经济的情况看，5年期LPR的调降又有必要性。其一在于政策力度，如前所述，5月13日“降低首套住房按揭贷款利率下限”的政策，信号意义要远大于实质意义，更多的是出于化解房地产风险的必要性、落实政治局宽松信号、对冲金融数据低迷的“坏消息”、提振市场预期等，但对于提振房地产销售方面，市场普遍并不报以乐观态度，毕竟对于一个真正有能力的刚需购房者而言，并不会因为房贷利率降低或提升了0.2%就因此而决定买或不买。既然政策有效性有限，为了稳房地产、稳经济增长，势必就需要更强力的政策出台，更进一步地扭转预期。其二在于相对于房地产增量市场而言，存量房贷的市场更大，政策的杠杆性更强。很多人在5月3日政策后，在网上反映现在受到疫情的影响，收入大幅度降低，也需要降低利率缓解居民的还贷压力。疫情后断供者越来越多、法拍房数量大幅度增长，这些都一定程度上表明了当前还款人的供贷压力。同时，通过调降5年期LPR缓解居民的利息支出压力，也能一定程度上从侧面刺激居民消费，这也是稳增长中的应有之意。后续有何影响？首先说对于资本市场的影响。无论是下调个人首套住房贷款利率下限20BP，还是下调5年期LPR15BP，这些可以说是在2016年之后鲜有的全国意义上的重磅房地产刺激政策，信号意义巨大，所以必然会引起资本市场一波巨大的炒作。5月13日政策发布后，万得房地产指数暴涨4.37%，狭义交易日又开盘大涨4.3%。但资本市场向来看重预期，最怕“靴子落地”。5月20日公布LPR后，房地产指数不涨反跌1.2%。对于房地产上市公司而言，政策目标或许已经来到了拐点，但对于那些已经暴雷和马上暴雷的房地产上市企业而言，能否坚持到最后，仍然是尚未可知。因此当前上市房企炒作的价值确实有，至于长期投资价值，则需要打上一个大大的问号。毕竟政策不是万能药，对于病入膏肓的病人来说，也是无能为力的。其次是对于房地产销售市场的影响。目前来看，房地产销售自去年7月以来已连续10个月同比负增长，而且近期受到疫情的影响，跌幅仍在加大。根据克而瑞统计，2022年4月，TOP50房企中超9成房企单月全口径销售额同比下滑，同比降幅基本在30%以上。如果可考虑到5月后疫情的扰动因素修复，今年下半年大概率房地产销售数据会持续的修复。同时，根据历史上房地产调控的经验来看，销售数据的改善会滞后于房贷利率下降约半年左右，但同时考虑到疫情对于销售的影响，以及线下消费活动的正常化，房地产销售的改善可能仍需要不短的时日。最后是对于居民新购房以及正在还贷款的人的影响。先说对于刚需购房者，按照5月13日和5月20日之后的政策来看，首套房的利率最低可以到4.25%，二套房利率最低可以达到5.05%。对于刚需来说，应该是一个非常具有吸引力的利率。至于说很多人关心的“现在要不要上车，要不要等等看”这类的问题，没有人能够买在绝对的低点，对于刚需者而言，短期后续LPR调降的空间已经非常小，房贷利率下降的空间有限，已经是一个相对不错的时点。当然，对于买房这件事，仁者见仁智者见智，没有绝对的正确，更多是个人的需求。另一类受到比较大影响的则是正在还贷的人群。一般来说，银行都是以5年期LPR作为基准，并进行一定的加点，与购房者在合同中约定利率，并每年调整一次。如果利率调整日期在5月20日之后的，那调整后的利率将比调整前低0.15%。至于很多约定在每年1月1日调整利率的，就只能等待到明年后才能享受到优惠的利率。而按照估算，如果贷款50万元，等额本息方式还款30年，大约一共能够减少利息支出1.6万元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026991880,"gmtCreate":1653310078140,"gmtModify":1676535257512,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026991880","repostId":"1115112944","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115112944","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653306175,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115112944?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 19:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The revenue is stable, the premium still exists, Zoom continues to cut meat with a blunt knife?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115112944","media":"华尔街大事件","summary":"概括：ZM股票从2020年10月的高点急剧下跌，但其仍具有显著的增长溢价。尽管溢价需要消化，但市场并未给Zoom投资者任何喘息的机会。我们将评级从买入调整为卖出，估计在达到显著底部之前可能存在27%的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b>ZM stock has fallen sharply from its October 2020 high, but it still has a significant growth premium. Although the premium needs to be digested, the market has not given<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>Any respite for investors. We revised our rating from buy to sell, estimating that there could be a potential downside of 27% before reaching a significant bottom. We highlighted in a previous article that the Zoom Video (ZM) bubble has burst. However, what we find interesting is that the market continues to digest its valuation, despite its profitability on a GAAP basis.</p><p>Furthermore, the most conservative price target of $100 does not protect ZM stock from further price declines.</p><p>We revisited our thesis in an attempt to understand why the market is so brutal despite the GAAP profitability of the sell-off in ZM stock. That's when we realized the market was probably pricing below expected EPS growth and the stock was still priced at a premium.</p><p>The market is continuing to digest its growth premium in a slow distribution process, dragging down bargain hunting before falling further.</p><p>Therefore, we believe that the sell-off in ZM stock may continue further. Despite having a massive cash reserve of more than $5.4 billion (roughly 21% of its market cap), ZM investors haven't been given any respite since October 2020.</p><p>Finally, we revised our rating on ZM stock from Buy to Sell. Given the significant normalization of ZM's EPS growth, we suspect that the current allocation process aims to bring ZM stock valuations more in line with the normalization of the overall market.</p><p><b>ZM Stock Remains Priced at Premium</b></p><p>Zoom's median P/E of 15.6 x is significantly lower than its 10-year median of 17.7 x. Therefore, it is clear that the market is pricing in a slowdown in Zoom's growth going forward, exacerbated by aggressive rate hike and rising inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543e27cd21bea297034626ff1a6e9730\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ZM Equity NTM Normalized P/E and NTM FCF Yield</p><p>It is worth noting that ZM stock last traded at 23.67 x NTM normalized P/E.<b>As a result, ZM still has a significant growth premium, although its earnings growth is likely to decline significantly in the coming years.</b></p><p>In our view, the market is pricing FY23 below management's guidance in Q4.</p><p>Zoom's guidance for the most recent quarter was $1.07 billion, and its upcoming FQ1 '23 earnings card rose 11.9% (up 12.3% year over year compared to the consensus estimate of $10.73).</p><p>Additionally, management guided FY23 revenue of $4.54 billion, up 10.7% year-over-year, in line with consensus estimates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a203f730936df773281837cec135f3ba\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zoom Revenue Consensus Estimate (S&P Capital IQ)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc080fbc8680762c511d850c75a4b492\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zoom GAAP EPS Consensus Estimate (S&P Capital IQ)</p><p><b>However, we think management and Wall Street may have underestimated the extent of the recovery in business travel.</b>We believe that Zoom's argument undoubtedly remains relevant. However, being able to accurately predict the growth rate of its reopening remains a major challenge.</p><p>Bloomberg reports that businesses see a stronger than expected recovery in global travel as the economy reopens to travelers. For example, FCM Travel emphasizes: \"Business is growing 80% of what it was in 2019 and in some places has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. It's returning much stronger than anyone expected.\"</p><p>As a result, we are concerned that management may miss its guidance for FY23, which will impact its GAAP EPS.</p><p>Wall Street consensus estimates suggest that Zoom's FY23 EPS could fall 60% year-over-year before rebounding in FY23.</p><p><b>As a result, ZM stock needs to digest its pandemic bubble growth to find a bottom. However, if Zoom lowers its revenue in FY23 or even FY24, its EPS estimates are at risk of further downward revisions.</b></p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>We think the market has been pricing in Zoom's FY23 guidance. It is worth noting that we did not observe market makers urgently throwing their chips.</p><p>Instead, as shown, they are just slow, deliberate distributions that have kept holders in constant losses for the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1ca1aad9c8fa81c8e22880023ace78a\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ZM Stock Price Chart (TradingView)</p><p>ZM stock is trading at a premium despite its sharp decline from its October 2020 high.</p><p>Therefore, we think it may continue to exhibit a downtrend to normalize its valuation afterwards. A more reasonable P/E would be around 17x, meaning Zoom still has a potential downside of 27.4%. So, we adjusted the rating of ZM stock from buy to sell.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1643368503284","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The revenue is stable, the premium still exists, Zoom continues to cut meat with a blunt knife?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe revenue is stable, the premium still exists, Zoom continues to cut meat with a blunt knife?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街大事件</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-23 19:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b>ZM stock has fallen sharply from its October 2020 high, but it still has a significant growth premium. Although the premium needs to be digested, the market has not given<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>Any respite for investors. We revised our rating from buy to sell, estimating that there could be a potential downside of 27% before reaching a significant bottom. We highlighted in a previous article that the Zoom Video (ZM) bubble has burst. However, what we find interesting is that the market continues to digest its valuation, despite its profitability on a GAAP basis.</p><p>Furthermore, the most conservative price target of $100 does not protect ZM stock from further price declines.</p><p>We revisited our thesis in an attempt to understand why the market is so brutal despite the GAAP profitability of the sell-off in ZM stock. That's when we realized the market was probably pricing below expected EPS growth and the stock was still priced at a premium.</p><p>The market is continuing to digest its growth premium in a slow distribution process, dragging down bargain hunting before falling further.</p><p>Therefore, we believe that the sell-off in ZM stock may continue further. Despite having a massive cash reserve of more than $5.4 billion (roughly 21% of its market cap), ZM investors haven't been given any respite since October 2020.</p><p>Finally, we revised our rating on ZM stock from Buy to Sell. Given the significant normalization of ZM's EPS growth, we suspect that the current allocation process aims to bring ZM stock valuations more in line with the normalization of the overall market.</p><p><b>ZM Stock Remains Priced at Premium</b></p><p>Zoom's median P/E of 15.6 x is significantly lower than its 10-year median of 17.7 x. Therefore, it is clear that the market is pricing in a slowdown in Zoom's growth going forward, exacerbated by aggressive rate hike and rising inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543e27cd21bea297034626ff1a6e9730\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ZM Equity NTM Normalized P/E and NTM FCF Yield</p><p>It is worth noting that ZM stock last traded at 23.67 x NTM normalized P/E.<b>As a result, ZM still has a significant growth premium, although its earnings growth is likely to decline significantly in the coming years.</b></p><p>In our view, the market is pricing FY23 below management's guidance in Q4.</p><p>Zoom's guidance for the most recent quarter was $1.07 billion, and its upcoming FQ1 '23 earnings card rose 11.9% (up 12.3% year over year compared to the consensus estimate of $10.73).</p><p>Additionally, management guided FY23 revenue of $4.54 billion, up 10.7% year-over-year, in line with consensus estimates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a203f730936df773281837cec135f3ba\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zoom Revenue Consensus Estimate (S&P Capital IQ)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc080fbc8680762c511d850c75a4b492\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zoom GAAP EPS Consensus Estimate (S&P Capital IQ)</p><p><b>However, we think management and Wall Street may have underestimated the extent of the recovery in business travel.</b>We believe that Zoom's argument undoubtedly remains relevant. However, being able to accurately predict the growth rate of its reopening remains a major challenge.</p><p>Bloomberg reports that businesses see a stronger than expected recovery in global travel as the economy reopens to travelers. For example, FCM Travel emphasizes: \"Business is growing 80% of what it was in 2019 and in some places has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. It's returning much stronger than anyone expected.\"</p><p>As a result, we are concerned that management may miss its guidance for FY23, which will impact its GAAP EPS.</p><p>Wall Street consensus estimates suggest that Zoom's FY23 EPS could fall 60% year-over-year before rebounding in FY23.</p><p><b>As a result, ZM stock needs to digest its pandemic bubble growth to find a bottom. However, if Zoom lowers its revenue in FY23 or even FY24, its EPS estimates are at risk of further downward revisions.</b></p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>We think the market has been pricing in Zoom's FY23 guidance. It is worth noting that we did not observe market makers urgently throwing their chips.</p><p>Instead, as shown, they are just slow, deliberate distributions that have kept holders in constant losses for the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1ca1aad9c8fa81c8e22880023ace78a\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>ZM Stock Price Chart (TradingView)</p><p>ZM stock is trading at a premium despite its sharp decline from its October 2020 high.</p><p>Therefore, we think it may continue to exhibit a downtrend to normalize its valuation afterwards. A more reasonable P/E would be around 17x, meaning Zoom still has a potential downside of 27.4%. So, we adjusted the rating of ZM stock from buy to sell.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bhMOrKwTsJc-v8zTd9WhQg\">华尔街大事件</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68ecabaf0839ef091b4b154187e60fd4","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bhMOrKwTsJc-v8zTd9WhQg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115112944","content_text":"概括：ZM股票从2020年10月的高点急剧下跌，但其仍具有显著的增长溢价。尽管溢价需要消化，但市场并未给Zoom投资者任何喘息的机会。我们将评级从买入调整为卖出，估计在达到显著底部之前可能存在27%的潜在下行空间。我们在之前的文章中强调了Zoom Video（ZM）的泡沫已经破裂。然而，我们发现有趣的是市场继续消化其估值，尽管其按公认会计准则计算是有利可图的。此外，100美元的最保守价格目标并不能保护ZM股票免受进一步价格下跌的影响。我们重新审视了我们的论文，试图了解为什么尽管ZM股票的抛售具有 GAAP盈利能力，但市场仍然如此残酷。那时我们意识到市场的定价可能低于预期的每股收益增长，而该股的定价仍处于溢价状态。市场正在缓慢的分销过程中继续消化其增长溢价，在进一步下跌之前拖累了逢低买盘。因此，我们认为ZM股票的抛售可能会进一步持续。尽管拥有超过54亿美元的巨额现金储备（约占其市值的21%），但自2020年10月以来，ZM投资者一直没有得到任何喘息的机会。最后，我们将 ZM 股票的评级从买入调整为卖出。鉴于ZM的每股收益增长显著正常化，我们怀疑当前的分配过程旨在使ZM股票估值更符合整体市场的正常化。ZM股票仍处于溢价定价Zoom的市盈率中值为15.6倍，明显低于其10年中值17.7倍。因此，很明显，市场正在为Zoom未来的增长放缓定价，激进的加息和通胀加剧加剧了这种情况。ZM股票NTM标准化P/E和NTM FCF收益率值得注意的是，ZM股票的最后交易价格为23.67倍的NTM标准化市盈率。因此，ZM仍有显著的增长溢价，尽管其盈利增长在未来几年可能会显著下降。我们认为，市场对23财年的定价低于管理层在第四季度的指导。Zoom最近一季的指引为 10.7亿美元，其即将推出的FQ1'23收益卡上涨11.9%（与普遍预期的10.73美元相比，同比上涨12.3%）。此外，管理层指导FY23收入为45.4亿美元，同比增长10.7%，符合市场普遍预期。Zoom收入共识估计（S&P Capital IQ）Zoom GAAP EPS共识估计（S&P Capital IQ）然而，我们认为管理层和华尔街可能低估了商务旅行的复苏程度。我们相信，Zoom 的论点毫无疑问仍然具有相关性。但是，能够准确预测其重新开放的增长率仍然是一项重大挑战。彭博社报道称，随着经济重新向旅行者开放，企业认为全球旅行复苏比预期更加强劲。例如，FCM Travel强调：“业务增长速度是 2019 年的 80%，并且在某些地方已经超过了大流行前的水平。它的回归比任何人预期的都要强大得多。”因此，我们担心管理层可能会错过其对 23 财年的指导，这将影响其 GAAP 每股收益。华尔街的共识估计表明，Zoom 的 23 财年每股收益可能会同比下降 60%，然后在 23 财年反弹。因此，ZM 股票需要消化其大流行的泡沫增长才能找到底部。但是，如果 Zoom 将 23 财年甚至 24 财年的收入下调，其每股收益估计将面临进一步下调的风险。结语我们认为市场一直在定价 Zoom 的23 财年的指引。值得注意的是，我们没有观察到做市商迫切地抛出筹码。相反，如图所示，它们只是缓慢的、蓄意的分发，在过去两年中让持有者持续亏损。ZM股价走势图（TradingView）尽管ZM股票从2020年10月的高点大幅下跌，但其交易价格仍处于溢价状态。因此，我们认为随后可能会持续呈现下跌趋势以使其估值正常化。更合理的市盈率将在17倍左右，这意味着Zoom仍有27.4%的潜在下行空间。所以，我们将ZM股票的评级从买入调整为卖出。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026991102,"gmtCreate":1653310058106,"gmtModify":1676535257513,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026991102","repostId":"1126290013","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026991917,"gmtCreate":1653310038939,"gmtModify":1676535257505,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026991917","repostId":"1164195300","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029511380,"gmtCreate":1652797619740,"gmtModify":1676535163590,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029511380","repostId":"1165989215","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029513963,"gmtCreate":1652797531552,"gmtModify":1676535163566,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029513963","repostId":"1105191089","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105191089","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1652758592,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105191089?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-17 11:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Who is the second Tesla? Soros is betting heavily on this","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105191089","media":"Wind万得","summary":"现在说起电动车，全球投资者头脑中浮现的第一个品牌基本都是特斯拉。随着电动车产业的发展，除特斯拉之外还有400多个大大小小的品牌，这其中一定会出现一家或几家可以和特斯拉相抗衡的企业，索罗斯就重金押注其中","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Now when it comes to electric vehicles, the first brands that come to mind of global investors are basically<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>。 With the development of the electric vehicle industry, there are more than 400 large and small brands besides Tesla. Among them, there will definitely be one or several companies that can compete with Tesla. Soros is betting heavily on one of them.</p><p>With the development of the past ten years, the electric vehicle market has become more and more mature, and more and more brands have emerged. Tesla has always occupied the largest sales share in the market with the best sales of Model 3 and Model Y. From 21% in 2017 to 28% in 2020, its market share declined last year, falling to 26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a0af26df2ce148f6c10ecf34f487ac\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter of 2022, a total of 417 electric vehicle models were on sale in the global market, and 264 models were produced in the Chinese market. With so many brands fighting, it is difficult for Tesla to maintain its leading edge all the time, and investment tycoons are also looking for the \"next Tesla\". Soros has always been in love with Rivian, an American electric pickup truck brand.</p><p>According to the 13F position report disclosed last week, the largest holding of Soros's Quantum Fund is still Rivian, holding about 19.84 million shares, with a market value of about 997 million US dollars, accounting for 15.16% of the investment portfolio. Rivian was a newly opened stock by Soros in the fourth quarter of last year. After opening the position, it became the largest position. By the first quarter of this year, the number of positions held has not changed from the previous quarter, but the market value has shrunk significantly because Rivian has fallen by nearly 80% year-to-date.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8570e93d4ecfa96dc6e387203f2bea3d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Soros not only has a heavy position in Rivian stocks, but from the perspective of changes in the position ratio, the highest purchase in Q1 is Rivian's call option.</p><p>Founded in 2009, later than Tesla, Rivian is an electric vehicle and autonomous driving technology manufacturer in the United States. Unlike Tesla, Rivian chose an extremely popular track in the United States from the beginning-electric pickup trucks. Before going public, Rivian was sought after by capital. In 2019 alone, Rivian conducted 4 rounds of financing, raising $2.85 billion in funding. Its investors include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>And other well-known companies and institutions, among which investors such as Amazon and BlackRock have even participated many times. However, before the official launch, Rivian did not have a real production car delivered to ordinary users.</p><p>Although Soros has a heavy position, Rivian's operating data is not good-looking. The Q1 financial report shows that Rivian's revenue was US $95 million, lower than the market consensus expectation of US $131.2 million; Net loss was US $1.593 billion, compared with US $414 million in the same period last year; Adjusted loss per share was $1.43, slightly better than consensus estimates of $1.45. Rivian previously halved its planned production for 2022 to 25,000 vehicles, only half of what the company promised investors during its IPO roadshow last year.</p><p>Rivian has produced 1,015 vehicles and delivered 920 by the end of 2021 since production began in the third quarter of last year. If the production in the first quarter of this year is added, the total production reaches 3,568 vehicles.</p><p>Rivian's Normal, Illinois plant currently has an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles, and the company said it plans to increase its annual production capacity to 200,000 vehicles by 2023. Another Rivian factory is scheduled to start production in 2024 and will eventually produce 400,000 vehicles per year and produce batteries.</p><p>Not only is Soros optimistic,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Also maintains an \"overweight\" rating on Rivian. Analyst Adam Jonas said: \"After taking into account various adverse factors, even though the overall stock market is currently sluggish, we believe that the company's current stock price is still slightly lower. Through estimates, the current stock price is not enough to reflect the company's annual sales forecast of 200,000 electric vehicles in 2030.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who is the second Tesla? Soros is betting heavily on this</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho is the second Tesla? Soros is betting heavily on this\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-17 11:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Now when it comes to electric vehicles, the first brands that come to mind of global investors are basically<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>。 With the development of the electric vehicle industry, there are more than 400 large and small brands besides Tesla. Among them, there will definitely be one or several companies that can compete with Tesla. Soros is betting heavily on one of them.</p><p>With the development of the past ten years, the electric vehicle market has become more and more mature, and more and more brands have emerged. Tesla has always occupied the largest sales share in the market with the best sales of Model 3 and Model Y. From 21% in 2017 to 28% in 2020, its market share declined last year, falling to 26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a0af26df2ce148f6c10ecf34f487ac\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter of 2022, a total of 417 electric vehicle models were on sale in the global market, and 264 models were produced in the Chinese market. With so many brands fighting, it is difficult for Tesla to maintain its leading edge all the time, and investment tycoons are also looking for the \"next Tesla\". Soros has always been in love with Rivian, an American electric pickup truck brand.</p><p>According to the 13F position report disclosed last week, the largest holding of Soros's Quantum Fund is still Rivian, holding about 19.84 million shares, with a market value of about 997 million US dollars, accounting for 15.16% of the investment portfolio. Rivian was a newly opened stock by Soros in the fourth quarter of last year. After opening the position, it became the largest position. By the first quarter of this year, the number of positions held has not changed from the previous quarter, but the market value has shrunk significantly because Rivian has fallen by nearly 80% year-to-date.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8570e93d4ecfa96dc6e387203f2bea3d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Soros not only has a heavy position in Rivian stocks, but from the perspective of changes in the position ratio, the highest purchase in Q1 is Rivian's call option.</p><p>Founded in 2009, later than Tesla, Rivian is an electric vehicle and autonomous driving technology manufacturer in the United States. Unlike Tesla, Rivian chose an extremely popular track in the United States from the beginning-electric pickup trucks. Before going public, Rivian was sought after by capital. In 2019 alone, Rivian conducted 4 rounds of financing, raising $2.85 billion in funding. Its investors include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>And other well-known companies and institutions, among which investors such as Amazon and BlackRock have even participated many times. However, before the official launch, Rivian did not have a real production car delivered to ordinary users.</p><p>Although Soros has a heavy position, Rivian's operating data is not good-looking. The Q1 financial report shows that Rivian's revenue was US $95 million, lower than the market consensus expectation of US $131.2 million; Net loss was US $1.593 billion, compared with US $414 million in the same period last year; Adjusted loss per share was $1.43, slightly better than consensus estimates of $1.45. Rivian previously halved its planned production for 2022 to 25,000 vehicles, only half of what the company promised investors during its IPO roadshow last year.</p><p>Rivian has produced 1,015 vehicles and delivered 920 by the end of 2021 since production began in the third quarter of last year. If the production in the first quarter of this year is added, the total production reaches 3,568 vehicles.</p><p>Rivian's Normal, Illinois plant currently has an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles, and the company said it plans to increase its annual production capacity to 200,000 vehicles by 2023. Another Rivian factory is scheduled to start production in 2024 and will eventually produce 400,000 vehicles per year and produce batteries.</p><p>Not only is Soros optimistic,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Also maintains an \"overweight\" rating on Rivian. Analyst Adam Jonas said: \"After taking into account various adverse factors, even though the overall stock market is currently sluggish, we believe that the company's current stock price is still slightly lower. Through estimates, the current stock price is not enough to reflect the company's annual sales forecast of 200,000 electric vehicles in 2030.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/845e27845a0aca10a09a5e12cdfb276e","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105191089","content_text":"现在说起电动车，全球投资者头脑中浮现的第一个品牌基本都是特斯拉。随着电动车产业的发展，除特斯拉之外还有400多个大大小小的品牌，这其中一定会出现一家或几家可以和特斯拉相抗衡的企业，索罗斯就重金押注其中一个。随着近十几年的发展，电动车市场越来越成熟，涌现出的品牌也越来越多，特斯拉凭借着Model 3和Model Y的畅销一直占据市场最大销售份额。从2017年的21%提升到2020年的28%，去年其市场份额出现下滑，下降至26%。据不完全统计，2022年第一季度，全球市场共417种电动车型号在销售，中国市场产出了264款。这么多品牌厮杀，特斯拉很难一直保持领先优势，投资大佬也在寻找“下一个特斯拉”。索罗斯一直钟情于美国电动皮卡品牌Rivian。根据上周披露的13F持仓报告，索罗斯旗下量子基金第一大重仓股依然是Rivian，持仓约1984万股，持仓市值约9.97亿美元，占投资组合比例为15.16%。Rivian是索罗斯去年第四季度新建仓个股，建仓后即为第一重仓股，到今年一季度持仓数量环比无任何变化，但市值已大幅缩水，因为Rivian年初至今已下跌近80%。索罗斯不仅重仓Rivian个股，从持仓比例变化来看，Q1买入最高的是Rivian的看涨期权。Rivian成立于2009年，较特斯拉要晚，是美国的一家电动汽车和自动驾驶技术厂商。Rivian与特斯拉不同，其从一开始就选择了一条在美国极其讨喜的赛道——电动皮卡车。上市前，Rivian就受到资本追捧。仅在2019年，Rivian就进行了4轮融资，筹集到了28.5亿美元的资金。其投资方包括亚马逊、福特汽车、贝莱德等知名企业及机构，其中亚马逊、贝莱德等投资方甚至多次参与其中。不过，在正式上市前，Rivian没有一款真正意义上的量产车交付给普通用户。虽然索罗斯重仓，但Rivian的经营数据并不好看，Q1财报显示，Rivian营收为9500万美元，低于市场普遍预期的1.312亿美元；净亏损为15.93亿美元，上年同期为4.14亿美元；调整后每股亏损为1.43美元，略好于市场预期的1.45美元。此前Rivian将其2022年的计划产量削减了一半至2.5万辆，仅是该公司去年在IPO路演中向投资者承诺的一半。自去年第三季度开始生产以来，Rivian到2021年底已生产了1015辆汽车，交付了920辆。若加上今年第一季度的产量，总产量达到了3,568辆。Rivian伊利诺伊州Normal工厂目前的年产能为15万辆，公司表示，计划在2023年前将该厂年产能提高到20万辆。Rivian另一家工厂定于2024年投产，最终将年产40万辆汽车，并生产电池。不仅索罗斯看好，摩根士丹利也维持对Rivian的“增持”评级。分析师Adam Jonas表示:“在将各种不良因素考虑进去后，即使目前整体股市低迷，但我们认为该公司目前的股价依然略低。通过估算，目前的股价并不足以反映该公司在2030年的20万辆电车年销量预期”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9066312522,"gmtCreate":1651849466666,"gmtModify":1676534983758,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9066312522","repostId":"1169210876","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169210876","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"1045836040","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1124f95a0404a8e98c2342c3c9c0de5"},"pubTimestamp":1651846587,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169210876?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-06 22:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Are 30,000 shareholders high? This A-share was once on the verge of delisting, but now it wants to \"pick the stars\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169210876","media":"中国基金报","summary":"昨晚多家ST股宣布退市，今晚（6日），一度濒临退市的*ST澄星发布公告称，将申请撤销股票退市风险警示及实施其他风险警示。6日盘间，一直在跌停板上趴着的*ST澄星在13：30分时，突然翘板，直线拉升，一","content":"<p><div>Last night, a number of ST stocks announced their delisting. Tonight (6th), * ST Chengxing, which was once on the verge of delisting, announced that it would apply to cancel the stock delisting risk warning and implement other risk warnings. During the 6th session, * ST Chengxing, which had been lying on the daily limit board, suddenly rocked up in a straight line at 13:30, and once touched the daily limit. At the last close, it was up 3.93%. After experiencing today's roller coaster-like market, the 36,000 shareholders of * ST Chengxing have ushered in this major benefit again, and this weekend will be happy. Once on the verge of delisting * ST Chengxing or \"picking the star\" After the market closed on the 6th, * ST Chengxing issued an announcement saying that,...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are 30,000 shareholders high? This A-share was once on the verge of delisting, but now it wants to \"pick the stars\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre 30,000 shareholders high? This A-share was once on the verge of delisting, but now it wants to \"pick the stars\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1045836040\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1124f95a0404a8e98c2342c3c9c0de5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中国基金报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-06 22:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Last night, a number of ST stocks announced their delisting. Tonight (6th), * ST Chengxing, which was once on the verge of delisting, announced that it would apply to cancel the stock delisting risk warning and implement other risk warnings. During the 6th session, * ST Chengxing, which had been lying on the daily limit board, suddenly rocked up in a straight line at 13:30, and once touched the daily limit. At the last close, it was up 3.93%. After experiencing today's roller coaster-like market, the 36,000 shareholders of * ST Chengxing have ushered in this major benefit again, and this weekend will be happy. Once on the verge of delisting * ST Chengxing or \"picking the star\" After the market closed on the 6th, * ST Chengxing issued an announcement saying that,...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"600078":"澄星股份"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169210876","content_text":"昨晚多家ST股宣布退市，今晚（6日），一度濒临退市的*ST澄星发布公告称，将申请撤销股票退市风险警示及实施其他风险警示。6日盘间，一直在跌停板上趴着的*ST澄星在13：30分时，突然翘板，直线拉升，一度触及涨停。最后收盘时，上涨3.93%。经历了今天过山车般的行情之后，*ST澄星的3.6万股民又迎来这一重大利好，这个周末要乐开花了。一度濒临退市*ST澄星或“摘星”6日盘后，*ST澄星发布公告称，公司已于5月4日收到上交所《关于江苏澄星磷化工股份有限公司2021年年度报告的信息披露监管问询函》。根据《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》(2022年1月修订)相关规定，上市公司申请撤销风险警示的，上交所可以要求上市公司提供补充材料，公司回复《问询函》期间不计入上交所作出相关决定的期限。公司将尽快落实回复，上交所将在公司回复相关公告后，视情况于10个交易日内决定是否撤销对公司股票实施的退市风险警示并实施其他风险警示。公司股票能否被撤销退市风险警示并实施其他风险警示，尚需上海证券交易所的审核确认，敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。此前，4月19日，上交所对*ST 澄星发出问询函。问询函指出，2022 年 4 月 18 日，公司管理人发布公告，收到了债权人江苏资产管理有限公司（江苏资产）所支付的 22.56 亿元款项。该款项系根据和解协议，江苏资产为自身及代其他普通债权人支付的接收被澄星集团及其关联方非经营性占用资金而形成对澄星集团应收款债权的款项。结合前期公告，江阴法院已于 2022 年 3 月 15 日判决确认江苏资产自 2021 年 12 月 31 日起享有对澄星集团的应收款债权 22.39 亿元，公司不再享有该应收款债权。上交所请公司管理人结合江阴法院判决的有关内容，就前期上市公司应收 22.39 亿元款项，说明目前债务人是澄星集团还是江苏资产；本次归还的 22.56 亿元，是否为江苏资产偿还其对上市公司的债务；基于上述问题，明确该款项支付是否不可撤销。一年涨停近70次还被称为“虎年最强妖股”说到*ST 澄星，暂且不表他与控股股东之间的狗血剧情，导致公司濒临退市。单单看看他的股价表现，就让不少A股的股民目瞪口呆。据统计，2021年年内，截至12月16日，公司涨停次数已达到69次之多。2021年12月17日，开盘涨停之后就快速下挫，一度跌停，此后股价变跌跌不休。跌了快2个月，*ST 澄星春节之后，再度迎来了大反转。自2022年2月8日起至2月24日收盘，19个交易日里，*ST澄星累计11个交易日涨停，实现六个连板，股价从每股5.7元到9.7元，期间累计涨幅达70.18%。被称为“虎年最强妖股”。2月7日，上交所对*ST澄星股价异动发出问询函，要求公司结合对恶意炒作，监事、高级管理人员和相关方的股票交易等情况予以说明。2月24日晚间，*ST澄星发布公告称，因公司股票交易异常波动，停牌核查。复牌之后，*ST澄星股价短暂回调之后，再度上涨。截至6日收盘，*ST澄星股价已经较春节前已经翻倍。年报曾被出具“无法表示意见”江苏澄星成立于1994年，1997年在上交所上市，主营业务为精细磷化工产品，拥有全国最大的黄磷产能，一度被认为是A股磷矿的“龙头”。其营业收入从2001年的5.86亿元一路增长至2020年的31.37亿元。然而，2020年江苏澄星的净利润却出现了巨亏，亏损达22.7亿元。因2020年内部控制审计报告被苏亚金诚会计师事务所（普通合伙人）出具了否定意见，以及受控股股东及其关联方资金占用未能解决的影响，江苏澄星股票被实施其他风险警示；因江苏澄星2020年度经审计的期末净资产为负值，且2020年财务会计报告被苏亚金诚会计师事务所出具了无法表示意见，江苏澄星股票被实施退市警示风险，其股票代码也正式由澄星股份变成ST澄星。根据上交所相关规定，若公司2021年年报触及退市相关指标任意情形，公司股票将被终止上市。2021年1月29日，江苏澄星发布业绩预告称，预计2021年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为13.1亿元至19.49亿元。原因是，公司于2021年12月31日收到江苏资产管理有限公司出具的《债权人说明》。江苏资产管理有限公司同意在2022年4月30日前联动江苏澄星全体债权人对澄星集团（江苏澄星第一大股东）及其相关方的应收款约22亿元全额变现或接受江苏澄星以其对澄星集团及其相关方的应收款约22亿元等额替代现金对债权人持有的债权进行清偿。江苏澄星管理层认为，此函履约的可能性非常大，因此按区间中值72.50%对上一年度全额计提的澄星集团及其相关方非经营性占用公司资金本息合计21.78亿元进行了冲回。但*ST澄星会计师出具专项说明表示，根据企业会计准则的规定，江苏澄星凭借《债权人说明》将2021年计提的应收澄星集团及其相关方款项的坏账准备中72.50%的份额予以转回并导致净资产转正，依据不充分。*ST澄星此后多次收到上交所的《问询函》，要求其就依据《债权人说明》导致净资产转正事项进行说明。一边是业绩爆雷，一边是*ST澄星自身面临多起诉讼。根据最新公告，截至目前，公司累计涉案金额为24亿元，其中重大诉讼（仲裁）金额为22亿元。公司及子公司共有34个银行账户冻结，冻结金额为984万元。2021年11月9日，债权人江阴市建筑装璜制品厂以公司不能清偿到期债务为由向法院申请对其破产重整。根据上交所相关规定，如果被宣告破产，公司股票将被终止上市。2022年1月7日江苏澄星申请和解，并与主要债权人等利害关系人进行商业谈判、制作了和解协议草案。2022年3月15日，江苏澄星收到无锡中院的《民事裁定书》和《决定书》，裁定受理了公司的和解申请并同意江阴市建筑装璜制品厂撤回对江苏澄星的重整申请，同时指定江苏谋盛律师事务所、江苏居和信律师事务所联合担任江苏澄星的管理人。值得注意的是，1月份申请和解，3月份提交草案，江苏澄星直至法院裁定和解后才于3月16日正式对外披露申请和解事项。而在此期间，江苏澄星的股价多次涨停。4月30日，*ST澄星正式发布2021年年报，并发布会计师事务所的审计报告。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600078":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060224538,"gmtCreate":1651156692284,"gmtModify":1676534860606,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060224538","repostId":"1159795060","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060224190,"gmtCreate":1651156619442,"gmtModify":1676534860590,"author":{"id":"4090282032864880","authorId":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","idStr":"4090282032864880"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060224190","repostId":"1123914915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}