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BRL2313
BRL2313
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2022-11-30
$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$
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BRL2313
BRL2313
·
2022-09-18
Good advice
This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way
Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless a
This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way
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BRL2313
BRL2313
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2022-09-16
Who to listen to?
JPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy
While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan i
JPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy
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BRL2313
BRL2313
·
2022-09-09
Good read
Here Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia
SummaryNVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long hi
Here Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia
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BRL2313
BRL2313
·
2022-09-07
Good advice
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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BRL2313
BRL2313
·
2022-09-06
Useful info
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BRL2313
BRL2313
·
2022-09-01
Dark clouds ahead
Charlie Munger Predicted "Considerable Trouble" For Markets: SPY Implications
SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face
Charlie Munger Predicted "Considerable Trouble" For Markets: SPY Implications
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BRL2313
BRL2313
·
2022-07-13
I believe
Good News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock
Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patien
Good News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock
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BRL2313
BRL2313
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2022-05-23
Good advice
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BRL2313
BRL2313
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2022-05-20
Ok won't eat the apple now
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They become bored and restless a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most common advice in a bear market: to build positions by averaging into them.</p><p>In theory, this is a great idea. No one can time the market with great precision, so a good way to build a position is to make smaller buys over a more extended period of time and hopefully end up with a pretty good average entry price.</p><p>There is no disputing the wisdom of entering positions incrementally, especially in a poor market, but executing this strategy can be challenging. The most common mistake is to average into a position too big and fast. When positions are too large in a poor market, there is an increased risk of panic selling.</p><p>The problem is that market participants tend to have a very strong tendency toward premature action. They want to act, and they also want to try to time the exact lows, and the combination of the two tendencies is that they act too early.</p><p><b>Buying Later Rather Than Early Is Better</b></p><p>In previous columns, I have discussed my view that buying later rather than early is better. If you buy after a low has occurred, there are precise support levels, and there is more likely to be sustained upside momentum. When you buy into the teeth of a decline, you have to hope that the downside momentum is about to stop and reverse. When the market is oversold, there can be some good countertrend bounces, but it is extremely hard to predict market lows prospectively.</p><p>Averaging into positions in a bear market probably causes more significant damage to accounts than anything else. The big danger is that the timing is wrong, and the position becomes uncomfortably large and refuses to bounce. This evokes strong emotions and causes panic reactions.</p><p>It is also essential to recognize that there is a risk that maybe you are betting on the wrong stock. Not every stock that sinks in a bear market will rebound when conditions improve. If you keep adding as it goes lower, you are setting yourself up for a major loss. This is another reason why it is important to look for some strength before you add to a position.</p><p>I am a big fan of an incremental approach to trading and investing, but far too many people do it wrong. They are too focused on buying weakness and trying to time the bottom. You have to be willing to add into strength and not just on weakness. People tend to want to buy weakness because there is the illusion that they are getting a bargain, but in investing, you make the big money not by buying the low but by buying a sustained uptrend.</p><p>This is a critical point that most market participants overlook. Just because a stock has found a low doesn't mean it will go up very much. Buying low isn't a great strategy if there isn't any significant high to sell in a reasonably short time frame.</p><p>I highly recommend using the 'average in' strategy, but I would amend it in two ways. First, use short-term volatility to trade the position. If you catch a bounce, then reduce the position and look to rebuy as conditions improve. Second, look to build the core position on strength rather than weakness. Don't just endlessly buy as the price goes lower. Make the stock prove that it has some relative strength before you trust it.</p><p>Averaging into a position is standard bear market advice, but it has to be done right to be effective.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1619508253632","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-18 10:30 GMT+8 <a href=https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208><strong>RealMoney</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175700857","content_text":"Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most common advice in a bear market: to build positions by averaging into them.In theory, this is a great idea. No one can time the market with great precision, so a good way to build a position is to make smaller buys over a more extended period of time and hopefully end up with a pretty good average entry price.There is no disputing the wisdom of entering positions incrementally, especially in a poor market, but executing this strategy can be challenging. The most common mistake is to average into a position too big and fast. When positions are too large in a poor market, there is an increased risk of panic selling.The problem is that market participants tend to have a very strong tendency toward premature action. They want to act, and they also want to try to time the exact lows, and the combination of the two tendencies is that they act too early.Buying Later Rather Than Early Is BetterIn previous columns, I have discussed my view that buying later rather than early is better. If you buy after a low has occurred, there are precise support levels, and there is more likely to be sustained upside momentum. When you buy into the teeth of a decline, you have to hope that the downside momentum is about to stop and reverse. When the market is oversold, there can be some good countertrend bounces, but it is extremely hard to predict market lows prospectively.Averaging into positions in a bear market probably causes more significant damage to accounts than anything else. The big danger is that the timing is wrong, and the position becomes uncomfortably large and refuses to bounce. This evokes strong emotions and causes panic reactions.It is also essential to recognize that there is a risk that maybe you are betting on the wrong stock. Not every stock that sinks in a bear market will rebound when conditions improve. If you keep adding as it goes lower, you are setting yourself up for a major loss. This is another reason why it is important to look for some strength before you add to a position.I am a big fan of an incremental approach to trading and investing, but far too many people do it wrong. They are too focused on buying weakness and trying to time the bottom. You have to be willing to add into strength and not just on weakness. People tend to want to buy weakness because there is the illusion that they are getting a bargain, but in investing, you make the big money not by buying the low but by buying a sustained uptrend.This is a critical point that most market participants overlook. Just because a stock has found a low doesn't mean it will go up very much. Buying low isn't a great strategy if there isn't any significant high to sell in a reasonably short time frame.I highly recommend using the 'average in' strategy, but I would amend it in two ways. First, use short-term volatility to trade the position. If you catch a bounce, then reduce the position and look to rebuy as conditions improve. Second, look to build the core position on strength rather than weakness. Don't just endlessly buy as the price goes lower. Make the stock prove that it has some relative strength before you trust it.Averaging into a position is standard bear market advice, but it has to be done right to be effective.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937053532,"gmtCreate":1663329982627,"gmtModify":1676537253339,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Who to listen to?","listText":"Who to listen to?","text":"Who to listen to?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937053532","repostId":"1166890805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166890805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663286370,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166890805?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-16 07:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166890805","media":"The Street","summary":"While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan is sanguine.</p><p>Hawkish comments about interest rates by central banks around the world have some investors scared that economies and financial markets are headed for a downturn.</p><p>But JPMorgan strategists, led by Marko Kolanovic, aren’t so pessimistic.</p><p>“We maintain that economic data and investor positioning are more important factors for risky asset performance than central bank rhetoric,” they wrote in a commentary.</p><p>“And the data appear to be increasingly supportive of a soft landing (rather than global recession), given moderating inflation and wage pressures, rebounding growth indicators, and stabilizing consumer confidence.”</p><p>U.S. consumer prices rose 8.3% in the 12 months through August, decelerating from the 8.5% increase for the 12 months through July.</p><p>And the U.S. government reported Sept. 15 that retail sales climbed 0.3% in August from July.</p><h3>Tailwinds for Stocks</h3><p>“Our expectation that the global economy will stay out of recession, along with increasing fiscal stimulus (e.g., in China, and energy support in Europe) and still very low investor positioning and sentiment, should continue to provide tailwinds for risky assets,” the strategists said.</p><p>That will override the “more hawkish central bank rhetoric recently,” they said. As a result, “we maintain a pro-risk stance in our model portfolio this month.”</p><p>Recent geopolitical developments, such as deteriorating prospects of an Iran nuclear deal and of G-7 progress toward Russian oil price caps, “should be bullish for energy,” the strategists said.</p><p>“But prices have yet to respond.” U.S. oil prices have dropped 28% in the past three months.</p><p>“We advocate buying the dip in energy and keep our aggressive overweight rating in commodities and commodity-sensitive assets, given our super-cycle thesis, and as a hedge for inflation and geopolitical risks,” the strategists said.</p><p>They also remain overweight stocks in general. Among equity areas they like are cyclicals, small caps and emerging markets, including China. They aren’t interested in expensive defensive stocks.</p><h3>Dalio’s Take: Less Enthusiastic</h3><p>Meanwhile, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund manager, isn’t as enthusiastic as the JPMorgan strategists</p><p>Looking at inflation, “my guesstimate is that it will be around 4.5% to 5% long-term, barring shocks (e.g., worsening economic wars in Europe and Asia, or more droughts and floods),” Dalio wrote in a commentary on LinkedIn.</p><p>Dalio forecasts a range between 4.5% and 6% percent for long- and short-term nominal bond yields in coming years. Given the federal government’s hefty debt load, he thinks yields must rise to the higher end of that range.</p><p>The yield increase implies “a significant fall in private credit that will curtail spending,” Dalio said. “This will bring private-sector credit growth down, which will bring private-sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”</p><p>The rate rise will produce a 20% drop in stock prices, Dalio predicted. That too will depress the economy, he said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-16 07:59 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jp-morgan-bullish-stocks-economy><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan is sanguine.Hawkish comments about interest rates by central banks around the world have some ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jp-morgan-bullish-stocks-economy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jp-morgan-bullish-stocks-economy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166890805","content_text":"While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan is sanguine.Hawkish comments about interest rates by central banks around the world have some investors scared that economies and financial markets are headed for a downturn.But JPMorgan strategists, led by Marko Kolanovic, aren’t so pessimistic.“We maintain that economic data and investor positioning are more important factors for risky asset performance than central bank rhetoric,” they wrote in a commentary.“And the data appear to be increasingly supportive of a soft landing (rather than global recession), given moderating inflation and wage pressures, rebounding growth indicators, and stabilizing consumer confidence.”U.S. consumer prices rose 8.3% in the 12 months through August, decelerating from the 8.5% increase for the 12 months through July.And the U.S. government reported Sept. 15 that retail sales climbed 0.3% in August from July.Tailwinds for Stocks“Our expectation that the global economy will stay out of recession, along with increasing fiscal stimulus (e.g., in China, and energy support in Europe) and still very low investor positioning and sentiment, should continue to provide tailwinds for risky assets,” the strategists said.That will override the “more hawkish central bank rhetoric recently,” they said. As a result, “we maintain a pro-risk stance in our model portfolio this month.”Recent geopolitical developments, such as deteriorating prospects of an Iran nuclear deal and of G-7 progress toward Russian oil price caps, “should be bullish for energy,” the strategists said.“But prices have yet to respond.” U.S. oil prices have dropped 28% in the past three months.“We advocate buying the dip in energy and keep our aggressive overweight rating in commodities and commodity-sensitive assets, given our super-cycle thesis, and as a hedge for inflation and geopolitical risks,” the strategists said.They also remain overweight stocks in general. Among equity areas they like are cyclicals, small caps and emerging markets, including China. They aren’t interested in expensive defensive stocks.Dalio’s Take: Less EnthusiasticMeanwhile, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund manager, isn’t as enthusiastic as the JPMorgan strategistsLooking at inflation, “my guesstimate is that it will be around 4.5% to 5% long-term, barring shocks (e.g., worsening economic wars in Europe and Asia, or more droughts and floods),” Dalio wrote in a commentary on LinkedIn.Dalio forecasts a range between 4.5% and 6% percent for long- and short-term nominal bond yields in coming years. Given the federal government’s hefty debt load, he thinks yields must rise to the higher end of that range.The yield increase implies “a significant fall in private credit that will curtail spending,” Dalio said. “This will bring private-sector credit growth down, which will bring private-sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”The rate rise will produce a 20% drop in stock prices, Dalio predicted. That too will depress the economy, he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936325587,"gmtCreate":1662711419849,"gmtModify":1676537124878,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936325587","repostId":"2266975278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266975278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662702575,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266975278?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-09 13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266975278","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long hi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>NVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long history of very deep earnings and price cyclicality.</li><li>A new down cycle has started, and I compare where NVDA stock stands today compared to previous down cycles.</li><li>I also share the two price points I would be willing to buy NVIDIA stock should the price fall that far.</li><li>And I take readers through my process for arriving at these buy prices.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43af2347949d7465e29a052c5644fbab\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>anilakkus/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>1999 was not a great year to be buying initial public offerings in the stock market. The vast majority of stocks that went public that year are no longer around. They either crashed and were bought out at very low prices, orthey went bankrupt. Most of the rest have never recovered the stock prices achieved at their IPOs or soon after. There are two exceptions to this dismal trend that I'm aware of, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is one of them. (BlackRock (BLK) is the other, if you are curious.)</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8df55b577ca5fe7b25afa4ea504d4e42\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA Total Return Price data by YCharts</span></p><p>It's difficult to find a stock from the late 1990s that has returned over 35K%. NVIDIA has without a doubt made a lot of investors rich. That is unless they bought the stock during the past two years. Most of those folks are severely underwater right now.</p><p>I've never written on NVIDIA before, mostly because I didn't start writing full-time about investing until 2018, I like to buy stocks when they are very cheap, and NVIDIA has never been very cheap during the past five years. But I have successfully invested in other semiconductor stocks like Micron (MU) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) and written about them publicly. I also happen to think this particular downturn we are headed into is probably going to offer a very good buying opportunity for semiconductor-related stocks generally, and now is the time to develop a plan for when to buy them if you haven't already.</p><p>I have an atypical investing approach when it comes to stocks like NVIDIA, and while I do occasionally write warning articles when these stocks get really overvalued (as NVIDIA was last year) I find that readers are more receptive to my investing style after the stock price has fallen a bit off its highs. Readers seem less likely to pay any attention to my warnings and expectations until the start of a decline. Now that NVIDIA is trading down a little bit, my hope is I'll have a more receptive audience.</p><p><b>NVIDIA's Historical Earnings Cyclicality</b></p><p>The first thing I check for every stock I analyze is to see what its historical earnings cyclicality looks like. The reason I do this is because I want to know if this is a stock that fits the profile of a stock I would consider investing in, and also I want to know which strategy and techniques are the most appropriate to analyze the stock in question.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35dbfbc9574d9792299940ce8ea40772\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>FAST Graphs</span></p><p>The dark green shaded area in the FAST Graph above represents NVIDIA's historical earnings per share. Earnings were very deeply cyclical in 2009, falling -82% off their highs, but they did stay positive. During the other three declining periods after 2009, EPS growth declines were modest-to-moderately deep. It is possible that without massive government stimulus and the unusual nature of the pandemic decline in 2020, NVIDIA would have experienced a deeper earnings decline during this period, but we will never know for sure. As it stands, NVIDIA's earnings exploded to record highs during fiscal years 2021 and 2022. The current year is expected to be NVIDIA's first really deep decline in EPS since the last true recession in 2009, and I think it's likely the earnings decline will continue into next year as well. Given that the Fed is still raising rates at this time and there probably will not be any more government stimulus, combined with the huge upcycle over the past two years, I think investors should be prepared for earnings growth to fall around -70% from peak to trough. It may or may not happen, but investors really need to understand that the risk of this sort of earnings decline over the short-to-medium-term is very real.</p><p>The primary reason I check earnings cyclicality is so that I can determine what sort of strategy is appropriate to use for a stock. My basic guideline is that if EPS has fallen more than -50% in the past, then I do not use an earnings and earnings-growth based analysis because earnings fluctuate too much to be a reliable guide for when to buy. In fact, earnings metrics like P/E ratios can often send the exact wrong signal for when to buy and sell cyclical stocks. Since NVIDIA saw EPS fall -82% in 2009, and I certainly expect EPS from peak to trough to fall at least -50% during the current downturn, I will be treating NVIDIA as a deeply cyclical stock.</p><p>So, instead of using an earnings-based valuation system, I use historical price cyclicality to help guide me when it comes to the prices I am willing to buy. Also, because these stocks can be extremely volatile, each position I take is only weighted approximately 1% of my portfolio.</p><p><b>Versus NVIDIA Stock's Historical Price</b><b>Cyclicality</b></p><p>Next, I'm going to examine NVIDIA's historical price cyclicality in order to help guide a potential purchase price of the stock. While patterns don't offer a perfect map to the future, they at least offer pretty good guideposts that have a high probability of producing good medium-term returns over the course of 2-5 years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24bf78d94b27582d4a9e7a0650e3dd42\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA data by YCharts</span></p><p>As we can see in the historical drawdown chart above, NVIDIA stock has historically been subject to some very deep price drawdowns. During "normal" recessions, the stock price has fallen deeper than -75% off its highs every time. Below I have put these drawdowns in table form so we can get a clearer picture. I have excluded the drawdown that immediately occurred after their IPO in 1999 since it's pretty normal for an IPO to fall more than -75% off its highs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b56bde6e74ae15bca9ec655f8ea23769\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>First, as I noted earlier, despite NVIDIA's fantastic historical returns, the stock's price drawdowns have been extremely deep. During the 2002 recession the price fell a full -90% off its highs, and during the GFC it fell -85%. These sorts of declines can be brutal for investors to hold through. Additionally, we have seen big price declines during non-recessionary times, like in 2018, when the price fell more than -50%. Already during the current downcycle, the price is down about -60% off its peak.</p><p>One of the more interesting things that I think is worth paying attention to in this case, is how long it has taken historically for the stock to bottom during recessions (which is probably where we are headed in the near future in the US). Typically, NVIDIA stock takes roughly 12-15 months before it bottoms (which is actually very fast for declines of -85% and deeper). But right now we are only about 9 months into the current decline. Interestingly, -60% is about what we would expect to see at this point if the stock were to bottom -85% off its highs over the course of about 12-15 months. So far, NVIDIA's stock price is having a typical drawdown that we should expect during a recessionary period. From what we are seeing right now, absolutely nothing about the stock price behavior seems "different this time".</p><p>Of course, we all know, that things really are a little different (maybe even more than a little different) than they were in 2008. But the truth of the matter is that often the stock market does not care all that much about those potential differences. So, in order to get the best prices (and therefore the best returns) sometimes we need forget the narratives and stories and pay close attention to market behavior. Humans, including investors, are basically identical to what they were in 2001 and 2008, and ultimately it is humans who are investing in the market.</p><p>I will frame my thoughts within the framework that my expectation is for a recession in the near future. Unlike 2018 and 2020 when economic growth slowed and the Federal Reserve and Federal Government came to the rescue with economic stimulus, we basically have the opposite happening right now. In an effort to fight inflation, the Fed is determined to raise interest rates, and if after the US elections in November we have a split government, I think we shouldn't count on anymore stimulus after that, even if the economy falls off a cliff, because there is no incentive for Republicans to help the Biden Administration avoid a bad recession. Putting all this together, my base-case is for a recession to start around Q1 2023 unless something changes between now and then. So, we need to probably take the idea of a shallower NVIDIA stock price dip off the table. (And since the stock price is already down -60%, that seems reasonable.)</p><p>Usually, if we have a recession, NVIDIA stock drops -85% off its highs, so I certainly feel comfortable being a buyer of the stock at that point. The more difficult question is whether to have an additional shallower buy price because NVIDIA appears to be in a strong secular growth trend over the past 7 or 8 years. Often (as was the case with my Micron article earlier this week) if a cyclical stock is also in a strong secular growth trend, I will have both a shallow and a deep buy price. One, based on the strength of the secular growth, and one based on the deep cyclicality of the stock. (I will share more detailed thoughts on this a little later in the article.)</p><p>My investing approach for deep cyclicals attempts to find historical patterns and then assume they will roughly repeat. However, I do check several things in order to see if there are obvious signs that this cycle really might be different this time and not repeat. I call these checks "impairment tests" and usually they take the form of questions. In the next section, I will run through this list of tests with NVIDIA stock.</p><p><b>Impairment Tests</b></p><p><b>Are revenues this cyclical peak higher than the last one?</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/019ded39c44c5f82baece6549d82195d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</span></p><p>This is a pretty easy one. Revenues this cycle are about triple what they were in 2018. And we have pretty good overall strength since 2006. The post-2008 recovery was a little slow, but NVIDIA eventually got there even before the blast-off after 2016.</p><p><b>Could the business have a hidden fatal flaw?</b></p><p>Since, by definition, the fatal flaw in the business model is "hidden" and cannot be easily seen, my test for this is whether the cyclical business in question has experienced two full business cycles because, typically, recessions are where the flaws are exposed, and sometimes businesses can get lucky and avoid trouble in one recession but have the flaw eventually catch up to them during the next. I typically pre-screen for this before I write an article, and we can see that NVIDIA has survived a couple of decades and been a proven winner and survivor, so I think we are generally safe in this regard.</p><p>That said, if we just take the recent years, and the growth associated with it, I do think it's possible that the rise of Crypto during this time, could potentially be a sort of a fatal flaw, at least with regard to the recent level of growth. I am generally bearish on the usefulness and legality of Crypto in the US, and I don't think we have seen the end of the Crypto bear market. If NVIDIA's recent success has had a lot to do with the popularity of Crypto, that's something to keep in mind. It often takes a big downcycle to expose the truth of the situation, and, in my opinion, Crypto hasn't had that yet. (Yes, I know there have been previous Crypto-winters, but that was before it became a household name. The current downcycle will be the real test.)</p><p>In the end, I think this is a question mark, still, but it should be kept in mind when trying to figure an eventual buying strategy.</p><p><b>Is there a clear and disruptive threat to its core business?</b></p><p>I think competition will always be a threat, so that's not really what I'm after here (competitive threats will usually show up clearly in revenues, which we already checked). Even with some unknowns, I still think 3-5 years from now NVIDIA's business will be strong and even if we have a big downcycle with the stock price, I'm still inclined to classify this as a secular growth stock, so I'm not worried much about disruptive threats this cycle.</p><p><b>Has NVDA stock experienced a recent super-cycle?</b></p><p>If I have one single question about NVIDIA that I'm truly uncertain about, I think this is the one. Generally speaking, I think the wider market could certainly have experienced a 2000-like super-cyclical peak at the end of 2021. This can cause a problem for a strategy like mine that measures declines from peak prices because if the peak prices are ridiculously high, then a stock might fall -60% or more off its highs as NVIDIA has and still not exactly be a good value.</p><p>I don't have a clear way to identify super-cycles. It's kind of an "I'll know it when I see it" sort of thing. But my quick way to check is to look at a log-scale version of a long-term historical price chart. Super-cycles tend to show up pretty well on these charts without giving as many false positives as a normal long-term price chart might.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36c6dc4e9a19065db7b57ea7f9538a1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA data by YCharts</span></p><p>NVIDIA stock's historical price behavior from 1999 until about 2016 is about what we would expect from a deeply cyclical stock. What is much more difficult to discern is whether the run from 2015 through today is the result of a super upcycle, or simply the result of faster secular growth. It is very difficult to tell. We have a lot of businesses who benefitted from the unique circumstances of the combination of COVID lockdowns and government stimulus in 2020 and 2021. And, without a doubt NVIDIA was one of them. But their hyper-growth (on almost every metric, not just the stock price) actually started much earlier, back in 2015. So I honestly don't think the answer is especially clear.</p><p>While I think it's fair to say that having a deep buy price about -85% off NVIDIA's highs for one potential purchase is a pretty easy call given its history, estimating a good first and shallower buy price, is more difficult. I think any price from -60% off its highs, which is where the stock is today, down to about -75% off its highs, would be defensible, depending on where one stood regarding the super-cycle vs secular growth debate. When I initially looked at NVIDIA and started actively tracking it a year or two ago, my initial instinct was to aim for shallow buy price about -65% off its highs. But after reviewing it more closely, I've decided to lower that down to an initial buy price that's -70% off the highs. Here's why.</p><p>While P/E ratios are not particularly good at valuing deeply cyclical stocks, they can be useful when measuring basic valuations across cyclical peaks. The idea is that the peak P/E can give you an estimate of the valuation going into a decline, and if the valuation is higher (or lower) than previous cyclical peaks, then the stock price might fall more (or less) off its highs during the current downturn. In 2007, the monthly P/E cyclical peak for NVIDIA according to FAST Graphs was about 30. The P/E cyclical peak during the current cycle was about 81. NVIDIA was much more richly valued going into the current decline than in the 2007 decline, and remember, the stock price fell a full -85% during the 2007 decline.</p><p>It is very important to remember here if a person buys a stock when it is -70% off its highs, and it eventually falls -85% off its highs, that you do not experience a -15% drawdown, you experience a -50% drawdown. For example, imagine a stock peaked at $100 and you bought it $30 (-70% off its peak), but it continued to fall to $15 (-85% off its peak), the distance between $30 and $15 is -50%. So, there is actually a pretty big gap between buying after a -70% decline and buying after a -85% decline. Toss in the uncertainty about Crypto's future and aiming for an initial buy price when the stock is -70% off its highs seems very reasonable to me.</p><p><b>Is management corrupt or incompetent?</b></p><p>I haven't seen any signs this might be the case.</p><p><b>How is the company's debt-to-equity compared to previous cycles?</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa7face715f66aef629b8d8918da508b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA Debt to Equity Ratio data by YCharts</span></p><p>Usually I take pause if I see a debt-to-equity ratio over 1.0 and also elevated compared to where it has been historically. In this case I see neither, so not much of an issue for me.</p><p><b>Has the price dropped enough to produce alpha in the past?</b></p><p>For this backtest, I will be using both the 2001 and the 2007 downcycles and I will be testing what sort of returns an investor would have achieved if they bought the stock after a -70% drawdown and also a -85% drawdown, both of which would have hit during these recessions. I will assume the stock was held until it recovered its previous high (which is usually when I take profits in deep cyclical stocks). I will then annualize that return and compare it to the S&P 500 if bought and sold on the same dates, annualized simple return. The goal is to see if historically this would be an alpha-producing strategy, so the last column is the alpha produced by the investment annualized relative to the S&P 500. If you buy after a -70% decline and sell when the stock price recovers its high, you will produce about a 230% return, so that will be the basic return in the table below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9d541071dc74c8937c0d8782198ee25\" tg-width=\"917\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We can see that buying after a -70% decline off the highs would have produced both good absolute and relative returns. It's worth noting that investors would have had to be very patient, though, with the 2007 decline taking over seven years to recover its old highs. Typically, I don't buy cyclical stocks if historically it has taken over five years for the stock to recover its old highs unless the returns are very good. In NVIDIA's case, they still managed almost 30% simple annualized returns so it still works out, but it helps bolster the case that it's worth aiming for very low buy prices when the recovery times can be expected to be very long. Additionally, an investor would have had to still be able to sit through a big drawdown if they bought after a -70% decline.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd34148e686b4d5fabc91d05ea92ff29\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA data by YCharts</span></p><p>An investor who bought after a -70% <i>still</i> would have had to sit through a further -60% decline in 2002.</p><p>Next, let's move on to what the numbers look like if an investor would have bought after an -85% decline (which would produce a little over a 600% basic return after a full stock price recovery).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0bc789336b0c4591e8fe1b0da67692d\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As we can see, both absolute and relative returns here are excellent, but an investor would have still needed lots of patience in order to benefit from the full recovery.</p><p>Certainly the odds of NVIDIA stock falling this much again, are fairly low, but if we were to have a moderately bad recession, investors, at the very least, need to be prepared mentally to handle this sort of decline.</p><p><b>Additional Strategic Considerations</b></p><p>The way I am approaching the handful of deeply cyclical semiconductor stocks I intend to buy twice during thisdowncycleis that for the first, and shallower purchase, I am currently holding about 25-30% cash, and the funds for that purchase will come from the cash. For the second, and deeper potential purchase, it's likely that if the prices go that low, I will have invested most of my cash already into the market, and I don't have any special cash earmarked for the second purchase, so what will likely happen is I will sell a stock or two that is either lower beta or lower quality to fund the purchase. I had a question in my Micron article asking for an example of what stock this might be. Of my current holdings, a low-beta and not especially high quality example, would be Altria (MO), or Tyson Foods (TSN), both of which are unlikely to fall nearly as deeply as NVIDIA in a recession, but which are both also less likely to provide the great returns of NVIDIA during the next upcycle. So those are the sorts of stocks I would tap for cash if we get into a very deep bear market.</p><p>Because it is possible that NVIDIA may have recently experienced a much bigger super-cycle than I am currently factoring in (remember the 2007 30 peak P/E compared to the 81 peak P/E this time) I think it's worth mentioning that just because a stock has had a super-upcycle doesn't mean it's uninvestable during the super-downcycle. But, typically what I do if I am more certain of the super-upcycle is to wait for a reasonably clear double-bottom instead of buying the stock on the way down. When super-upcycles come down they can be extremely brutal, but I have had success in the past with stocks like 3D Systems (DDD) and Albemarle (ALB) simply waiting for a somewhat clear bottom after a super-cycle, and I think that's a reasonable strategy here as well. I decided not to use it because my buy prices are already so low I'm sort of prepared for a super-downcycle already.</p><p>Putting all this together, my first buy price for NVIDIA is about -25% lower from today's price at $103.94, and my second, deeper buy price, is $51.97. Importantly, these are not what many refer to as "price targets", which imply that I'm predicting with some high level of confidence and probability the stock will hit these prices. What I am saying is these are the prices at which I will be a buyer if they hit. The shallower buy price I do think has a greater than 50% chance of hitting, and the lower one, perhaps closer to a 10-15% chance of hitting. The important thing for investors to know is that if we have a recession, then it is <i>normal</i> for NVIDIA's stock price to move down to these levels. NVIDIA stock can literally fall -85% off its highs and that price movement doesn't tell you anything about the quality of the business itself, other than the business is cyclical. So, if you hold NVIDIA stock and you believe in the long-term, I think this article can be useful to you as well if it helps prevent you from selling (likely to someone like me) near the bottom.</p><p><i>This article was written by Cory Cramer </i><i>for reference only.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-09 13:49 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539763-here-is-the-price-ill-start-buying-nvidia><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long history of very deep earnings and price cyclicality.A new down cycle has started, and I compare where ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539763-here-is-the-price-ill-start-buying-nvidia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539763-here-is-the-price-ill-start-buying-nvidia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266975278","content_text":"SummaryNVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long history of very deep earnings and price cyclicality.A new down cycle has started, and I compare where NVDA stock stands today compared to previous down cycles.I also share the two price points I would be willing to buy NVIDIA stock should the price fall that far.And I take readers through my process for arriving at these buy prices.anilakkus/iStock via Getty ImagesIntroduction1999 was not a great year to be buying initial public offerings in the stock market. The vast majority of stocks that went public that year are no longer around. They either crashed and were bought out at very low prices, orthey went bankrupt. Most of the rest have never recovered the stock prices achieved at their IPOs or soon after. There are two exceptions to this dismal trend that I'm aware of, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is one of them. (BlackRock (BLK) is the other, if you are curious.)NVDA Total Return Price data by YChartsIt's difficult to find a stock from the late 1990s that has returned over 35K%. NVIDIA has without a doubt made a lot of investors rich. That is unless they bought the stock during the past two years. Most of those folks are severely underwater right now.I've never written on NVIDIA before, mostly because I didn't start writing full-time about investing until 2018, I like to buy stocks when they are very cheap, and NVIDIA has never been very cheap during the past five years. But I have successfully invested in other semiconductor stocks like Micron (MU) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) and written about them publicly. I also happen to think this particular downturn we are headed into is probably going to offer a very good buying opportunity for semiconductor-related stocks generally, and now is the time to develop a plan for when to buy them if you haven't already.I have an atypical investing approach when it comes to stocks like NVIDIA, and while I do occasionally write warning articles when these stocks get really overvalued (as NVIDIA was last year) I find that readers are more receptive to my investing style after the stock price has fallen a bit off its highs. Readers seem less likely to pay any attention to my warnings and expectations until the start of a decline. Now that NVIDIA is trading down a little bit, my hope is I'll have a more receptive audience.NVIDIA's Historical Earnings CyclicalityThe first thing I check for every stock I analyze is to see what its historical earnings cyclicality looks like. The reason I do this is because I want to know if this is a stock that fits the profile of a stock I would consider investing in, and also I want to know which strategy and techniques are the most appropriate to analyze the stock in question.FAST GraphsThe dark green shaded area in the FAST Graph above represents NVIDIA's historical earnings per share. Earnings were very deeply cyclical in 2009, falling -82% off their highs, but they did stay positive. During the other three declining periods after 2009, EPS growth declines were modest-to-moderately deep. It is possible that without massive government stimulus and the unusual nature of the pandemic decline in 2020, NVIDIA would have experienced a deeper earnings decline during this period, but we will never know for sure. As it stands, NVIDIA's earnings exploded to record highs during fiscal years 2021 and 2022. The current year is expected to be NVIDIA's first really deep decline in EPS since the last true recession in 2009, and I think it's likely the earnings decline will continue into next year as well. Given that the Fed is still raising rates at this time and there probably will not be any more government stimulus, combined with the huge upcycle over the past two years, I think investors should be prepared for earnings growth to fall around -70% from peak to trough. It may or may not happen, but investors really need to understand that the risk of this sort of earnings decline over the short-to-medium-term is very real.The primary reason I check earnings cyclicality is so that I can determine what sort of strategy is appropriate to use for a stock. My basic guideline is that if EPS has fallen more than -50% in the past, then I do not use an earnings and earnings-growth based analysis because earnings fluctuate too much to be a reliable guide for when to buy. In fact, earnings metrics like P/E ratios can often send the exact wrong signal for when to buy and sell cyclical stocks. Since NVIDIA saw EPS fall -82% in 2009, and I certainly expect EPS from peak to trough to fall at least -50% during the current downturn, I will be treating NVIDIA as a deeply cyclical stock.So, instead of using an earnings-based valuation system, I use historical price cyclicality to help guide me when it comes to the prices I am willing to buy. Also, because these stocks can be extremely volatile, each position I take is only weighted approximately 1% of my portfolio.Versus NVIDIA Stock's Historical PriceCyclicalityNext, I'm going to examine NVIDIA's historical price cyclicality in order to help guide a potential purchase price of the stock. While patterns don't offer a perfect map to the future, they at least offer pretty good guideposts that have a high probability of producing good medium-term returns over the course of 2-5 years.NVDA data by YChartsAs we can see in the historical drawdown chart above, NVIDIA stock has historically been subject to some very deep price drawdowns. During \"normal\" recessions, the stock price has fallen deeper than -75% off its highs every time. Below I have put these drawdowns in table form so we can get a clearer picture. I have excluded the drawdown that immediately occurred after their IPO in 1999 since it's pretty normal for an IPO to fall more than -75% off its highs.First, as I noted earlier, despite NVIDIA's fantastic historical returns, the stock's price drawdowns have been extremely deep. During the 2002 recession the price fell a full -90% off its highs, and during the GFC it fell -85%. These sorts of declines can be brutal for investors to hold through. Additionally, we have seen big price declines during non-recessionary times, like in 2018, when the price fell more than -50%. Already during the current downcycle, the price is down about -60% off its peak.One of the more interesting things that I think is worth paying attention to in this case, is how long it has taken historically for the stock to bottom during recessions (which is probably where we are headed in the near future in the US). Typically, NVIDIA stock takes roughly 12-15 months before it bottoms (which is actually very fast for declines of -85% and deeper). But right now we are only about 9 months into the current decline. Interestingly, -60% is about what we would expect to see at this point if the stock were to bottom -85% off its highs over the course of about 12-15 months. So far, NVIDIA's stock price is having a typical drawdown that we should expect during a recessionary period. From what we are seeing right now, absolutely nothing about the stock price behavior seems \"different this time\".Of course, we all know, that things really are a little different (maybe even more than a little different) than they were in 2008. But the truth of the matter is that often the stock market does not care all that much about those potential differences. So, in order to get the best prices (and therefore the best returns) sometimes we need forget the narratives and stories and pay close attention to market behavior. Humans, including investors, are basically identical to what they were in 2001 and 2008, and ultimately it is humans who are investing in the market.I will frame my thoughts within the framework that my expectation is for a recession in the near future. Unlike 2018 and 2020 when economic growth slowed and the Federal Reserve and Federal Government came to the rescue with economic stimulus, we basically have the opposite happening right now. In an effort to fight inflation, the Fed is determined to raise interest rates, and if after the US elections in November we have a split government, I think we shouldn't count on anymore stimulus after that, even if the economy falls off a cliff, because there is no incentive for Republicans to help the Biden Administration avoid a bad recession. Putting all this together, my base-case is for a recession to start around Q1 2023 unless something changes between now and then. So, we need to probably take the idea of a shallower NVIDIA stock price dip off the table. (And since the stock price is already down -60%, that seems reasonable.)Usually, if we have a recession, NVIDIA stock drops -85% off its highs, so I certainly feel comfortable being a buyer of the stock at that point. The more difficult question is whether to have an additional shallower buy price because NVIDIA appears to be in a strong secular growth trend over the past 7 or 8 years. Often (as was the case with my Micron article earlier this week) if a cyclical stock is also in a strong secular growth trend, I will have both a shallow and a deep buy price. One, based on the strength of the secular growth, and one based on the deep cyclicality of the stock. (I will share more detailed thoughts on this a little later in the article.)My investing approach for deep cyclicals attempts to find historical patterns and then assume they will roughly repeat. However, I do check several things in order to see if there are obvious signs that this cycle really might be different this time and not repeat. I call these checks \"impairment tests\" and usually they take the form of questions. In the next section, I will run through this list of tests with NVIDIA stock.Impairment TestsAre revenues this cyclical peak higher than the last one?NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YChartsThis is a pretty easy one. Revenues this cycle are about triple what they were in 2018. And we have pretty good overall strength since 2006. The post-2008 recovery was a little slow, but NVIDIA eventually got there even before the blast-off after 2016.Could the business have a hidden fatal flaw?Since, by definition, the fatal flaw in the business model is \"hidden\" and cannot be easily seen, my test for this is whether the cyclical business in question has experienced two full business cycles because, typically, recessions are where the flaws are exposed, and sometimes businesses can get lucky and avoid trouble in one recession but have the flaw eventually catch up to them during the next. I typically pre-screen for this before I write an article, and we can see that NVIDIA has survived a couple of decades and been a proven winner and survivor, so I think we are generally safe in this regard.That said, if we just take the recent years, and the growth associated with it, I do think it's possible that the rise of Crypto during this time, could potentially be a sort of a fatal flaw, at least with regard to the recent level of growth. I am generally bearish on the usefulness and legality of Crypto in the US, and I don't think we have seen the end of the Crypto bear market. If NVIDIA's recent success has had a lot to do with the popularity of Crypto, that's something to keep in mind. It often takes a big downcycle to expose the truth of the situation, and, in my opinion, Crypto hasn't had that yet. (Yes, I know there have been previous Crypto-winters, but that was before it became a household name. The current downcycle will be the real test.)In the end, I think this is a question mark, still, but it should be kept in mind when trying to figure an eventual buying strategy.Is there a clear and disruptive threat to its core business?I think competition will always be a threat, so that's not really what I'm after here (competitive threats will usually show up clearly in revenues, which we already checked). Even with some unknowns, I still think 3-5 years from now NVIDIA's business will be strong and even if we have a big downcycle with the stock price, I'm still inclined to classify this as a secular growth stock, so I'm not worried much about disruptive threats this cycle.Has NVDA stock experienced a recent super-cycle?If I have one single question about NVIDIA that I'm truly uncertain about, I think this is the one. Generally speaking, I think the wider market could certainly have experienced a 2000-like super-cyclical peak at the end of 2021. This can cause a problem for a strategy like mine that measures declines from peak prices because if the peak prices are ridiculously high, then a stock might fall -60% or more off its highs as NVIDIA has and still not exactly be a good value.I don't have a clear way to identify super-cycles. It's kind of an \"I'll know it when I see it\" sort of thing. But my quick way to check is to look at a log-scale version of a long-term historical price chart. Super-cycles tend to show up pretty well on these charts without giving as many false positives as a normal long-term price chart might.NVDA data by YChartsNVIDIA stock's historical price behavior from 1999 until about 2016 is about what we would expect from a deeply cyclical stock. What is much more difficult to discern is whether the run from 2015 through today is the result of a super upcycle, or simply the result of faster secular growth. It is very difficult to tell. We have a lot of businesses who benefitted from the unique circumstances of the combination of COVID lockdowns and government stimulus in 2020 and 2021. And, without a doubt NVIDIA was one of them. But their hyper-growth (on almost every metric, not just the stock price) actually started much earlier, back in 2015. So I honestly don't think the answer is especially clear.While I think it's fair to say that having a deep buy price about -85% off NVIDIA's highs for one potential purchase is a pretty easy call given its history, estimating a good first and shallower buy price, is more difficult. I think any price from -60% off its highs, which is where the stock is today, down to about -75% off its highs, would be defensible, depending on where one stood regarding the super-cycle vs secular growth debate. When I initially looked at NVIDIA and started actively tracking it a year or two ago, my initial instinct was to aim for shallow buy price about -65% off its highs. But after reviewing it more closely, I've decided to lower that down to an initial buy price that's -70% off the highs. Here's why.While P/E ratios are not particularly good at valuing deeply cyclical stocks, they can be useful when measuring basic valuations across cyclical peaks. The idea is that the peak P/E can give you an estimate of the valuation going into a decline, and if the valuation is higher (or lower) than previous cyclical peaks, then the stock price might fall more (or less) off its highs during the current downturn. In 2007, the monthly P/E cyclical peak for NVIDIA according to FAST Graphs was about 30. The P/E cyclical peak during the current cycle was about 81. NVIDIA was much more richly valued going into the current decline than in the 2007 decline, and remember, the stock price fell a full -85% during the 2007 decline.It is very important to remember here if a person buys a stock when it is -70% off its highs, and it eventually falls -85% off its highs, that you do not experience a -15% drawdown, you experience a -50% drawdown. For example, imagine a stock peaked at $100 and you bought it $30 (-70% off its peak), but it continued to fall to $15 (-85% off its peak), the distance between $30 and $15 is -50%. So, there is actually a pretty big gap between buying after a -70% decline and buying after a -85% decline. Toss in the uncertainty about Crypto's future and aiming for an initial buy price when the stock is -70% off its highs seems very reasonable to me.Is management corrupt or incompetent?I haven't seen any signs this might be the case.How is the company's debt-to-equity compared to previous cycles?NVDA Debt to Equity Ratio data by YChartsUsually I take pause if I see a debt-to-equity ratio over 1.0 and also elevated compared to where it has been historically. In this case I see neither, so not much of an issue for me.Has the price dropped enough to produce alpha in the past?For this backtest, I will be using both the 2001 and the 2007 downcycles and I will be testing what sort of returns an investor would have achieved if they bought the stock after a -70% drawdown and also a -85% drawdown, both of which would have hit during these recessions. I will assume the stock was held until it recovered its previous high (which is usually when I take profits in deep cyclical stocks). I will then annualize that return and compare it to the S&P 500 if bought and sold on the same dates, annualized simple return. The goal is to see if historically this would be an alpha-producing strategy, so the last column is the alpha produced by the investment annualized relative to the S&P 500. If you buy after a -70% decline and sell when the stock price recovers its high, you will produce about a 230% return, so that will be the basic return in the table below.We can see that buying after a -70% decline off the highs would have produced both good absolute and relative returns. It's worth noting that investors would have had to be very patient, though, with the 2007 decline taking over seven years to recover its old highs. Typically, I don't buy cyclical stocks if historically it has taken over five years for the stock to recover its old highs unless the returns are very good. In NVIDIA's case, they still managed almost 30% simple annualized returns so it still works out, but it helps bolster the case that it's worth aiming for very low buy prices when the recovery times can be expected to be very long. Additionally, an investor would have had to still be able to sit through a big drawdown if they bought after a -70% decline.NVDA data by YChartsAn investor who bought after a -70% still would have had to sit through a further -60% decline in 2002.Next, let's move on to what the numbers look like if an investor would have bought after an -85% decline (which would produce a little over a 600% basic return after a full stock price recovery).As we can see, both absolute and relative returns here are excellent, but an investor would have still needed lots of patience in order to benefit from the full recovery.Certainly the odds of NVIDIA stock falling this much again, are fairly low, but if we were to have a moderately bad recession, investors, at the very least, need to be prepared mentally to handle this sort of decline.Additional Strategic ConsiderationsThe way I am approaching the handful of deeply cyclical semiconductor stocks I intend to buy twice during thisdowncycleis that for the first, and shallower purchase, I am currently holding about 25-30% cash, and the funds for that purchase will come from the cash. For the second, and deeper potential purchase, it's likely that if the prices go that low, I will have invested most of my cash already into the market, and I don't have any special cash earmarked for the second purchase, so what will likely happen is I will sell a stock or two that is either lower beta or lower quality to fund the purchase. I had a question in my Micron article asking for an example of what stock this might be. Of my current holdings, a low-beta and not especially high quality example, would be Altria (MO), or Tyson Foods (TSN), both of which are unlikely to fall nearly as deeply as NVIDIA in a recession, but which are both also less likely to provide the great returns of NVIDIA during the next upcycle. So those are the sorts of stocks I would tap for cash if we get into a very deep bear market.Because it is possible that NVIDIA may have recently experienced a much bigger super-cycle than I am currently factoring in (remember the 2007 30 peak P/E compared to the 81 peak P/E this time) I think it's worth mentioning that just because a stock has had a super-upcycle doesn't mean it's uninvestable during the super-downcycle. But, typically what I do if I am more certain of the super-upcycle is to wait for a reasonably clear double-bottom instead of buying the stock on the way down. When super-upcycles come down they can be extremely brutal, but I have had success in the past with stocks like 3D Systems (DDD) and Albemarle (ALB) simply waiting for a somewhat clear bottom after a super-cycle, and I think that's a reasonable strategy here as well. I decided not to use it because my buy prices are already so low I'm sort of prepared for a super-downcycle already.Putting all this together, my first buy price for NVIDIA is about -25% lower from today's price at $103.94, and my second, deeper buy price, is $51.97. Importantly, these are not what many refer to as \"price targets\", which imply that I'm predicting with some high level of confidence and probability the stock will hit these prices. What I am saying is these are the prices at which I will be a buyer if they hit. The shallower buy price I do think has a greater than 50% chance of hitting, and the lower one, perhaps closer to a 10-15% chance of hitting. The important thing for investors to know is that if we have a recession, then it is normal for NVIDIA's stock price to move down to these levels. NVIDIA stock can literally fall -85% off its highs and that price movement doesn't tell you anything about the quality of the business itself, other than the business is cyclical. So, if you hold NVIDIA stock and you believe in the long-term, I think this article can be useful to you as well if it helps prevent you from selling (likely to someone like me) near the bottom.This article was written by Cory Cramer for reference only.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938029518,"gmtCreate":1662525189734,"gmtModify":1676537080710,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good advice ","listText":"Good advice ","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938029518","repostId":"2265838091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9931231919,"gmtCreate":1662463911531,"gmtModify":1676537065639,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Useful info","listText":"Useful info","text":"Useful info","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931231919","repostId":"2265105088","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939972067,"gmtCreate":1662047523062,"gmtModify":1676536796016,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dark clouds ahead","listText":"Dark clouds ahead","text":"Dark clouds ahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939972067","repostId":"1122895763","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122895763","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662045547,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122895763?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-01 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122895763","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Earlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face "considerable trouble."</li><li>We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&P 500.</li><li>We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.</li></ul><p>Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett's partner at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire Hathaway </a> - recently opined that "considerable trouble" was coming for markets at the Daily Journal's (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:</p><blockquote><i>What we're getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it's like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they're having so much fun getting drunk that they don't think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that's the way it's usually worked in the past.</i></blockquote><p>He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:</p><blockquote><i>Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there's a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There's never been anything quite like what we're doing now. We do know from what's happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We're closer to terrible trouble than we've been in the past, but it may still be a long way off."</i></blockquote><p>While the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF</a> has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the "considerable trouble" of which Mr. Munger spoke:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9e327d28d335c1ba952173a78d8bcb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts</p><p>However, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger's remarks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GME</a> continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a461d8b52be2c08bfdea7bd63aa4a6f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>GME data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657129e113ae6df9d1e40ca014384412\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c7438df5f55651979a20fdff9651ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY data by YCharts</p><p>However, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6eb93157e6cb1f12a1b5b0d7519ff8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YCharts</p><p>In this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.</p><h3>Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be Lackluster</h3><p>The biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger's remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:</p><p>1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.</p><p>2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.</p><p>3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve's latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.</p><p>When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.</p><h3>Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable Future</h3><p>That said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.</p><p>On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute's notice.</p><h3>Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very Possible</h3><p>As already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:</p><p>1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.</p><p>2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.</p><h3>Investor Takeaway</h3><p>While these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:</p><p>1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.</p><p>2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.</p><p>3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61315c652f099418782c73479f3dd50a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIXdata by YCharts</p><p>For those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCharlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-01 23:19 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122895763","content_text":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&P 500.We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire Hathaway - recently opined that \"considerable trouble\" was coming for markets at the Daily Journal's (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:What we're getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it's like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they're having so much fun getting drunk that they don't think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that's the way it's usually worked in the past.He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there's a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There's never been anything quite like what we're doing now. We do know from what's happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We're closer to terrible trouble than we've been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.\"While the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the \"considerable trouble\" of which Mr. Munger spoke:SPY Total Return Price data by YChartsHowever, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger's remarks, GME continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:GME data by YChartsWe can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YChartsWe can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:SPY data by YChartsHowever, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YChartsIn this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be LacklusterThe biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger's remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve's latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable FutureThat said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute's notice.Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very PossibleAs already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.Investor TakeawayWhile these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.VIXdata by YChartsFor those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9078864157,"gmtCreate":1657671449979,"gmtModify":1676536042651,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I believe ","listText":"I believe ","text":"I believe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078864157","repostId":"1193691775","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193691775","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657639889,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193691775?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-12 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Good News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193691775","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patien","content":"<div>\n<p>Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patient accumulation will be rewarded.In a bear market, good news can always be spun as bad news.Nvidia(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/07/nvda-stock-good-news-is-bear-news-for-nvidia/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Good News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGood News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-12 23:31 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/07/nvda-stock-good-news-is-bear-news-for-nvidia/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patient accumulation will be rewarded.In a bear market, good news can always be spun as bad news.Nvidia(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/07/nvda-stock-good-news-is-bear-news-for-nvidia/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/07/nvda-stock-good-news-is-bear-news-for-nvidia/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193691775","content_text":"Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patient accumulation will be rewarded.In a bear market, good news can always be spun as bad news.Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) investors were reminded of this on July 5.The good news is that the chip shortage may be easing. Prices for used gaming cards have plunged. Young gamers who wanted a graphics card for years can now get one, at list prices and lower.But this good news is also bad news. The new supply, from broken crypto miners, is coming as production falls. There are reports Nvidia is cutting back orders from its manufacturing partner, Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM).The result is that NVDA stock, which was at $286/share in April, traded recently below $144/share.Short Term WeaknessDuring the bull market, Nvidia was a ferociously expensive stock. Now it’s just pricey.At its July 5 price, the company’s market cap of $362 billion is still almost 39 times last year’s earnings, and over 13 times last year’s sales of $27 billion.The good news is that underestimates the company’s power. First-quarter revenue came in at$8.3 billion, up 46%from a year earlier. Non-GAAP earnings were also up 49% from a year ago. But costs from the cancelled acquisition of ARM Holdings meant GAAP earnings were down 16%.The problem is that investors buy tomorrow, not yesterday. If prices for gaming chips continue to fall, Nvidia’s list prices will as well. That will cut earnings because a lot of the company’s revenue still comes from gamers.Nvidia is due to report its current quarter on Aug. 24, for the three months ending in July. Analysts currently expect $1.03/share of earnings and$8.11 billion of revenue. Field reports of slowing demand, however, indicate it could fall short. The most recent chip stock to report, Micron Technologies(NASDAQ:MU), gave weak guidance. They’re expecting a storm. Nvidia’s ship is being tossed, too.Long Term StrengthAnalysts continue pounding the table for NVDA stock, even as they cut their price targets.The reason is that lower prices open huge new opportunities. Car makers can now bring those autonomous driving features to the market. Nvidia’s artificial intelligence software can now be offered as a service, with Hewlett Packard Enterprise(NYSE:HPE) bringing it to the network edge. Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL) cloud gaming service, Stadia, may now be able to fulfill its promise with an Nvidia upgrade.Even while edge applications for Nvidia chips slow, like gaming and crypto, the cloud continues to grow. Data centers were the biggest buyers of Nvidia chips in the first quarter. Capital spending from the cloud czars, especially Google, Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), remains strong. Lower prices may just mean they’ll buy more Nvidia graphics chips for new applications. Eventually, cloud services at the network center will spur demand for support from the network edge, as prices for things like Meta Network(NASDAQ:FB) headsets come down. Meta, by the way, has been a big buyer of Nvidia chips for its “metaverse” activities.The Bottom Line for NVDA StockBear markets end.When they do, tech stocks will be the first to rise again. Companies like Nvidia make new money-saving ideas practical. They create new markets and growth. This has driven the economy forward for a half-century. It’s not changing.But bear markets also require patience. It’s easy to say, “buy the dip.” The problem right now is many investors have no cash with which to do that. That means the best advice is to hold your nerve.Nvidia may not rise again for several months. It may even go lower. No one is paying 13 times revenue for anything right now. The next few months may be brutal.The snapback, however, when it comes, will be something to behold. You’ll want to behold it from inside the Nvidia tent rather than outside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026972813,"gmtCreate":1653318593132,"gmtModify":1676535259790,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good advice ","listText":"Good advice ","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026972813","repostId":"2237884509","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021233037,"gmtCreate":1653056862029,"gmtModify":1676535216024,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092922656715030","authorIdStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok won't eat the apple now","listText":"Ok won't eat the apple now","text":"Ok won't eat the apple now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021233037","repostId":"2236670897","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}