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暗涌 它日 mochekYao
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2023-05-08
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U.S. Markets Fear Recession and See Interest Rate Cuts Ahead As Fed Loan Survey Looms
Some investors see a hard landing for the U.S. economy this year resulting from the sharply higher i
U.S. Markets Fear Recession and See Interest Rate Cuts Ahead As Fed Loan Survey Looms
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2023-05-08
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AI Could Be a $14 Trillion Opportunity by 2030: Here Are 2 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy Now
The future looks bright for all of these AI-powered stocks.
AI Could Be a $14 Trillion Opportunity by 2030: Here Are 2 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy Now
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2022-08-23
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2022-07-21
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2022-07-19
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它日 mochekYao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4d2fb5cfce52c0c6c677c5256368e431","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098343358404650","idStr":"4098343358404650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947453000","repostId":"2333425404","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2333425404","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1683528127,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2333425404?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-08 14:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Markets Fear Recession and See Interest Rate Cuts Ahead As Fed Loan Survey Looms","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2333425404","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Some investors see a hard landing for the U.S. economy this year resulting from the sharply higher i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Some investors see a hard landing for the U.S. economy this year resulting from the sharply higher interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve to quell inflation and tighter credit conditions in the wake of regional bank sector stress, while others note that consumer spending and employment growth remains healthy, but the Federal Reserve's loan officer survey due this week may provide more clarity on which view is more accurate.</p><p>"The last two rate hikes were nuts, to be blunt," said Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, in a phone interview. The Fed "could really cause a problem coming and going."</p><p>Concerns still swirl around the banking industry after the failure of Silicon Valley, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in the past two months and the bond market is expressing the view that the Fed will have to cut interest rates as a result, despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushing back on that notion on May 3, the day it announced a 10th straight increase in rates.</p><p>"He did his utmost to convince market participants that the Fed is not going to be lowering interest rates, but will probably keep them where they are for a while," said Yardeni. "The market's anticipating a hard landing."</p><p>But "I'm anticipating a soft landing that will allow the Fed to maintain the fed-funds rate" at the current level possibly through the end of the year, said Yardeni. The federal-funds rate is now at a target range of 5% to 5.25%, after the central bank's rate hike of a quarter point on May 3.</p><p>"If they just stop here," he said, "all hope isn't lost."</p><p>Yardeni, who sees a 60% chance of a soft-landing scenario and a 40% probability of a hard landing, expects the stock market to be higher by year-end. In his view, October 12 marked the bear-market low for the S&P 500 index, which he said could finish 2023 at 4,600. That's about 11% above Friday's close.</p><p>The U.S. stock market ended sharply higher Friday, with the S&P 500 closing at 4,136 for a year-to-date gain of 7.7%, according to FactSet data. But stocks were mostly down for the week, with the S&P 500 falling 0.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding 1.2% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite eking out a 0.1% weekly gain.</p><p>"We're cautious," said David Bianco, chief investment officer for the Americas at DWS, in a phone interview. "We're moderately underweight equities."</p><p>Bianco expects the S&P 500 will be "pretty flat" this year, estimating a fair value of 3,700 -- 4,000. He thinks the index may fall to the low end of that range amid worries over the U.S. debt-ceiling and the path of Fed policy, before moving back up to 4,000 at the end of 2023 "if all goes fairly well."</p><p>According to Yardeni, the S&P 500 will probably keep fluctuating around 4,000 through the summer, as the market needs "to get a better handle on what the Fed is going to be doing for the rest of the year" and the debt-ceiling debate has to be resolved before the fast-approaching deadline</p><p>The Fed has indicated for a while it wants to bring rates to a restrictive level and keep them there, he said. "I think the banking crisis confirms that they got there."</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed's senior loan officer opinion survey on bank lending practices will be released on Monday. "It's hard to imagine that it shows anything but credit conditions continuing to tighten," said Yardeni. "It will certainly include responses reflecting the banking crisis."</p><p>Bianco said he's been keeping an eye on the availability and cost of credit as well as "how it affects the willingness of businesses to invest."</p><h3>Economy-wide recession?</h3><p>The bond market seems to be counting on a recession of at least average magnitude taking care of the U.S. inflation problem, as yields have slid recently despite the Fed hiking rates, according to Bianco.</p><p>The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell 14.4 basis points this past week to 3.920%, its largest weekly decline since the stretch ending March 17 based on 3 p.m. Eastern Time levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data. On March 12, the Fed announced an emergency program to help banks meet the needs of their depositors after Silicon Valley Bank's sudden collapse.</p><p>Ten-year Treasury yields dipped almost one basis point this past week to 3.445%, declining along with two-year yields for a second straight week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>In Bianco's view, the Fed won't cut rates unless there's a "significant, unmistakable recession of greater-than-average magnitude with rapid deterioration in the labor force." He described an average U.S. recession as having a 2% peak-to-trough contraction in gross domestic product over about a year.</p><p>Bianco is expecting a "shallow" recession to begin some time in 2023. "To me, the most constructive outlook is the Fed not having to do anything for the rest of the year," he said. Rate cuts by year-end would not come with "risk-friendly conditions," warned Bianco. "If that occurs, get out of the way."</p><h3>Rolling recession?</h3><p>There's "a great deal of pessimism out there" about the U.S. economic outlook, according to Yardeni, who said he tends to be more "optimistic."</p><p>He thinks the U.S. has been in "a rolling recession, where different industries have been hit at different times by recessionary pressures," as opposed to an economy-wide contraction that many investors are fearing this year.</p><p>"We've been kind of rolling through one, without the kind of dire consequences that an economy-wide recession would have," said Yardeni.</p><p>For example, the rolling recession hit the single-family housing market last year as the Fed began raising rates, but multi-family housing remained "quite strong," he said. Then retailers saw a recession after being stuck with inventory following consumers' "buying binge" for goods during the pandemic before shifting their spending to services.</p><p>"The labor market remains strong because the service economy has done really well," he said.</p><p>The unemployment rate in the U.S. remains historically low, dipping to 3.4% in April, according to a report Friday from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U.S. economy added 253,000 jobs last month, exceeding the forecast from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, while wages rose.</p><p>Investors will get a reading on April inflation next week, with data from the consumer-price index due out on Wednesday. The previous monthly measure from the consumer-price index showed that inflation in March was sticky.</p><p>"Sure, we're off the highs, but it's still too high for too long," said Bianco.</p><h3>Fed's 'credibility issue'</h3><p>Yardeni sees the Fed having "this credibility issue that they're obsessed about" after taking too long to raise rates to fight inflation. It was "an embarrassment to them that they let the inflation genie out of the bottle without responding faster," he said. "Now I think they want to be tough," said Yardeni, so "they're going to do whatever it takes to bring inflation down."</p><p>Meanwhile, fed-funds futures and the yield on the two-year Treasury note are "screaming that interest rates are going to be heading down over the next year," said Yardeni. On Friday, traders in fed-funds futures were largely expecting the Fed to pause its interest-rate hikes at its June policy meeting, while betting on rate cuts in the second half of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.</p><p>"Financial stability concerns are going to be an issue at some point, and there is going to be some sort of tightening in credit conditions and standards," said John Madziyire, head of U.S. Treasurys and TIPS at Vanguard Group in a phone interview. He expects "the Fed is close to the end" of its rate hiking cycle.</p><h3>'Powell's Plateau'</h3><p>Yardeni says his estimation of a 40% chance of a hard landing acknowledges he has perceived the Fed could break something in the financial system with its aggressive rate increases. The regional-bank failures in mid-March and the start of May seem signs of the Fed having finally broken something, but the central bank continued raising rates later that month and again this past week to fight inflation.</p><p>The Fed has done "a pretty good job" containing the banking crisis, partly through its emergency bank term funding program created in mid-March, Yardeni said. He expects the central bank will now pause its rate hikes but might not have to cut them this year as an economy-wide recession may not be imminent.</p><p>"They're going to try and achieve Powell's plateau," potentially keeping the Fed's benchmark rate at the current level for a while, he said. "I think that overtime, that will, in fact, help to bring inflation down without causing a recession."</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Markets Fear Recession and See Interest Rate Cuts Ahead As Fed Loan Survey Looms</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Markets Fear Recession and See Interest Rate Cuts Ahead As Fed Loan Survey Looms\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-05-08 14:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Some investors see a hard landing for the U.S. economy this year resulting from the sharply higher interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve to quell inflation and tighter credit conditions in the wake of regional bank sector stress, while others note that consumer spending and employment growth remains healthy, but the Federal Reserve's loan officer survey due this week may provide more clarity on which view is more accurate.</p><p>"The last two rate hikes were nuts, to be blunt," said Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, in a phone interview. The Fed "could really cause a problem coming and going."</p><p>Concerns still swirl around the banking industry after the failure of Silicon Valley, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in the past two months and the bond market is expressing the view that the Fed will have to cut interest rates as a result, despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushing back on that notion on May 3, the day it announced a 10th straight increase in rates.</p><p>"He did his utmost to convince market participants that the Fed is not going to be lowering interest rates, but will probably keep them where they are for a while," said Yardeni. "The market's anticipating a hard landing."</p><p>But "I'm anticipating a soft landing that will allow the Fed to maintain the fed-funds rate" at the current level possibly through the end of the year, said Yardeni. The federal-funds rate is now at a target range of 5% to 5.25%, after the central bank's rate hike of a quarter point on May 3.</p><p>"If they just stop here," he said, "all hope isn't lost."</p><p>Yardeni, who sees a 60% chance of a soft-landing scenario and a 40% probability of a hard landing, expects the stock market to be higher by year-end. In his view, October 12 marked the bear-market low for the S&P 500 index, which he said could finish 2023 at 4,600. That's about 11% above Friday's close.</p><p>The U.S. stock market ended sharply higher Friday, with the S&P 500 closing at 4,136 for a year-to-date gain of 7.7%, according to FactSet data. But stocks were mostly down for the week, with the S&P 500 falling 0.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding 1.2% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite eking out a 0.1% weekly gain.</p><p>"We're cautious," said David Bianco, chief investment officer for the Americas at DWS, in a phone interview. "We're moderately underweight equities."</p><p>Bianco expects the S&P 500 will be "pretty flat" this year, estimating a fair value of 3,700 -- 4,000. He thinks the index may fall to the low end of that range amid worries over the U.S. debt-ceiling and the path of Fed policy, before moving back up to 4,000 at the end of 2023 "if all goes fairly well."</p><p>According to Yardeni, the S&P 500 will probably keep fluctuating around 4,000 through the summer, as the market needs "to get a better handle on what the Fed is going to be doing for the rest of the year" and the debt-ceiling debate has to be resolved before the fast-approaching deadline</p><p>The Fed has indicated for a while it wants to bring rates to a restrictive level and keep them there, he said. "I think the banking crisis confirms that they got there."</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed's senior loan officer opinion survey on bank lending practices will be released on Monday. "It's hard to imagine that it shows anything but credit conditions continuing to tighten," said Yardeni. "It will certainly include responses reflecting the banking crisis."</p><p>Bianco said he's been keeping an eye on the availability and cost of credit as well as "how it affects the willingness of businesses to invest."</p><h3>Economy-wide recession?</h3><p>The bond market seems to be counting on a recession of at least average magnitude taking care of the U.S. inflation problem, as yields have slid recently despite the Fed hiking rates, according to Bianco.</p><p>The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell 14.4 basis points this past week to 3.920%, its largest weekly decline since the stretch ending March 17 based on 3 p.m. Eastern Time levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data. On March 12, the Fed announced an emergency program to help banks meet the needs of their depositors after Silicon Valley Bank's sudden collapse.</p><p>Ten-year Treasury yields dipped almost one basis point this past week to 3.445%, declining along with two-year yields for a second straight week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>In Bianco's view, the Fed won't cut rates unless there's a "significant, unmistakable recession of greater-than-average magnitude with rapid deterioration in the labor force." He described an average U.S. recession as having a 2% peak-to-trough contraction in gross domestic product over about a year.</p><p>Bianco is expecting a "shallow" recession to begin some time in 2023. "To me, the most constructive outlook is the Fed not having to do anything for the rest of the year," he said. Rate cuts by year-end would not come with "risk-friendly conditions," warned Bianco. "If that occurs, get out of the way."</p><h3>Rolling recession?</h3><p>There's "a great deal of pessimism out there" about the U.S. economic outlook, according to Yardeni, who said he tends to be more "optimistic."</p><p>He thinks the U.S. has been in "a rolling recession, where different industries have been hit at different times by recessionary pressures," as opposed to an economy-wide contraction that many investors are fearing this year.</p><p>"We've been kind of rolling through one, without the kind of dire consequences that an economy-wide recession would have," said Yardeni.</p><p>For example, the rolling recession hit the single-family housing market last year as the Fed began raising rates, but multi-family housing remained "quite strong," he said. Then retailers saw a recession after being stuck with inventory following consumers' "buying binge" for goods during the pandemic before shifting their spending to services.</p><p>"The labor market remains strong because the service economy has done really well," he said.</p><p>The unemployment rate in the U.S. remains historically low, dipping to 3.4% in April, according to a report Friday from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U.S. economy added 253,000 jobs last month, exceeding the forecast from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, while wages rose.</p><p>Investors will get a reading on April inflation next week, with data from the consumer-price index due out on Wednesday. The previous monthly measure from the consumer-price index showed that inflation in March was sticky.</p><p>"Sure, we're off the highs, but it's still too high for too long," said Bianco.</p><h3>Fed's 'credibility issue'</h3><p>Yardeni sees the Fed having "this credibility issue that they're obsessed about" after taking too long to raise rates to fight inflation. It was "an embarrassment to them that they let the inflation genie out of the bottle without responding faster," he said. "Now I think they want to be tough," said Yardeni, so "they're going to do whatever it takes to bring inflation down."</p><p>Meanwhile, fed-funds futures and the yield on the two-year Treasury note are "screaming that interest rates are going to be heading down over the next year," said Yardeni. On Friday, traders in fed-funds futures were largely expecting the Fed to pause its interest-rate hikes at its June policy meeting, while betting on rate cuts in the second half of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.</p><p>"Financial stability concerns are going to be an issue at some point, and there is going to be some sort of tightening in credit conditions and standards," said John Madziyire, head of U.S. Treasurys and TIPS at Vanguard Group in a phone interview. He expects "the Fed is close to the end" of its rate hiking cycle.</p><h3>'Powell's Plateau'</h3><p>Yardeni says his estimation of a 40% chance of a hard landing acknowledges he has perceived the Fed could break something in the financial system with its aggressive rate increases. The regional-bank failures in mid-March and the start of May seem signs of the Fed having finally broken something, but the central bank continued raising rates later that month and again this past week to fight inflation.</p><p>The Fed has done "a pretty good job" containing the banking crisis, partly through its emergency bank term funding program created in mid-March, Yardeni said. He expects the central bank will now pause its rate hikes but might not have to cut them this year as an economy-wide recession may not be imminent.</p><p>"They're going to try and achieve Powell's plateau," potentially keeping the Fed's benchmark rate at the current level for a while, he said. "I think that overtime, that will, in fact, help to bring inflation down without causing a recession."</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2333425404","content_text":"Some investors see a hard landing for the U.S. economy this year resulting from the sharply higher interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve to quell inflation and tighter credit conditions in the wake of regional bank sector stress, while others note that consumer spending and employment growth remains healthy, but the Federal Reserve's loan officer survey due this week may provide more clarity on which view is more accurate.\"The last two rate hikes were nuts, to be blunt,\" said Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, in a phone interview. The Fed \"could really cause a problem coming and going.\"Concerns still swirl around the banking industry after the failure of Silicon Valley, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in the past two months and the bond market is expressing the view that the Fed will have to cut interest rates as a result, despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushing back on that notion on May 3, the day it announced a 10th straight increase in rates.\"He did his utmost to convince market participants that the Fed is not going to be lowering interest rates, but will probably keep them where they are for a while,\" said Yardeni. \"The market's anticipating a hard landing.\"But \"I'm anticipating a soft landing that will allow the Fed to maintain the fed-funds rate\" at the current level possibly through the end of the year, said Yardeni. The federal-funds rate is now at a target range of 5% to 5.25%, after the central bank's rate hike of a quarter point on May 3.\"If they just stop here,\" he said, \"all hope isn't lost.\"Yardeni, who sees a 60% chance of a soft-landing scenario and a 40% probability of a hard landing, expects the stock market to be higher by year-end. In his view, October 12 marked the bear-market low for the S&P 500 index, which he said could finish 2023 at 4,600. That's about 11% above Friday's close.The U.S. stock market ended sharply higher Friday, with the S&P 500 closing at 4,136 for a year-to-date gain of 7.7%, according to FactSet data. But stocks were mostly down for the week, with the S&P 500 falling 0.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding 1.2% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite eking out a 0.1% weekly gain.\"We're cautious,\" said David Bianco, chief investment officer for the Americas at DWS, in a phone interview. \"We're moderately underweight equities.\"Bianco expects the S&P 500 will be \"pretty flat\" this year, estimating a fair value of 3,700 -- 4,000. He thinks the index may fall to the low end of that range amid worries over the U.S. debt-ceiling and the path of Fed policy, before moving back up to 4,000 at the end of 2023 \"if all goes fairly well.\"According to Yardeni, the S&P 500 will probably keep fluctuating around 4,000 through the summer, as the market needs \"to get a better handle on what the Fed is going to be doing for the rest of the year\" and the debt-ceiling debate has to be resolved before the fast-approaching deadlineThe Fed has indicated for a while it wants to bring rates to a restrictive level and keep them there, he said. \"I think the banking crisis confirms that they got there.\"Meanwhile, the Fed's senior loan officer opinion survey on bank lending practices will be released on Monday. \"It's hard to imagine that it shows anything but credit conditions continuing to tighten,\" said Yardeni. \"It will certainly include responses reflecting the banking crisis.\"Bianco said he's been keeping an eye on the availability and cost of credit as well as \"how it affects the willingness of businesses to invest.\"Economy-wide recession?The bond market seems to be counting on a recession of at least average magnitude taking care of the U.S. inflation problem, as yields have slid recently despite the Fed hiking rates, according to Bianco.The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell 14.4 basis points this past week to 3.920%, its largest weekly decline since the stretch ending March 17 based on 3 p.m. Eastern Time levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data. On March 12, the Fed announced an emergency program to help banks meet the needs of their depositors after Silicon Valley Bank's sudden collapse.Ten-year Treasury yields dipped almost one basis point this past week to 3.445%, declining along with two-year yields for a second straight week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.In Bianco's view, the Fed won't cut rates unless there's a \"significant, unmistakable recession of greater-than-average magnitude with rapid deterioration in the labor force.\" He described an average U.S. recession as having a 2% peak-to-trough contraction in gross domestic product over about a year.Bianco is expecting a \"shallow\" recession to begin some time in 2023. \"To me, the most constructive outlook is the Fed not having to do anything for the rest of the year,\" he said. Rate cuts by year-end would not come with \"risk-friendly conditions,\" warned Bianco. \"If that occurs, get out of the way.\"Rolling recession?There's \"a great deal of pessimism out there\" about the U.S. economic outlook, according to Yardeni, who said he tends to be more \"optimistic.\"He thinks the U.S. has been in \"a rolling recession, where different industries have been hit at different times by recessionary pressures,\" as opposed to an economy-wide contraction that many investors are fearing this year.\"We've been kind of rolling through one, without the kind of dire consequences that an economy-wide recession would have,\" said Yardeni.For example, the rolling recession hit the single-family housing market last year as the Fed began raising rates, but multi-family housing remained \"quite strong,\" he said. Then retailers saw a recession after being stuck with inventory following consumers' \"buying binge\" for goods during the pandemic before shifting their spending to services.\"The labor market remains strong because the service economy has done really well,\" he said.The unemployment rate in the U.S. remains historically low, dipping to 3.4% in April, according to a report Friday from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U.S. economy added 253,000 jobs last month, exceeding the forecast from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, while wages rose.Investors will get a reading on April inflation next week, with data from the consumer-price index due out on Wednesday. The previous monthly measure from the consumer-price index showed that inflation in March was sticky.\"Sure, we're off the highs, but it's still too high for too long,\" said Bianco.Fed's 'credibility issue'Yardeni sees the Fed having \"this credibility issue that they're obsessed about\" after taking too long to raise rates to fight inflation. It was \"an embarrassment to them that they let the inflation genie out of the bottle without responding faster,\" he said. \"Now I think they want to be tough,\" said Yardeni, so \"they're going to do whatever it takes to bring inflation down.\"Meanwhile, fed-funds futures and the yield on the two-year Treasury note are \"screaming that interest rates are going to be heading down over the next year,\" said Yardeni. On Friday, traders in fed-funds futures were largely expecting the Fed to pause its interest-rate hikes at its June policy meeting, while betting on rate cuts in the second half of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"Financial stability concerns are going to be an issue at some point, and there is going to be some sort of tightening in credit conditions and standards,\" said John Madziyire, head of U.S. Treasurys and TIPS at Vanguard Group in a phone interview. He expects \"the Fed is close to the end\" of its rate hiking cycle.'Powell's Plateau'Yardeni says his estimation of a 40% chance of a hard landing acknowledges he has perceived the Fed could break something in the financial system with its aggressive rate increases. The regional-bank failures in mid-March and the start of May seem signs of the Fed having finally broken something, but the central bank continued raising rates later that month and again this past week to fight inflation.The Fed has done \"a pretty good job\" containing the banking crisis, partly through its emergency bank term funding program created in mid-March, Yardeni said. He expects the central bank will now pause its rate hikes but might not have to cut them this year as an economy-wide recession may not be imminent.\"They're going to try and achieve Powell's plateau,\" potentially keeping the Fed's benchmark rate at the current level for a while, he said. \"I think that overtime, that will, in fact, help to bring inflation down without causing a recession.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.6,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947459731,"gmtCreate":1683528255424,"gmtModify":1683528259349,"author":{"id":"4098343358404650","authorId":"4098343358404650","name":"暗涌 它日 mochekYao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4d2fb5cfce52c0c6c677c5256368e431","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098343358404650","idStr":"4098343358404650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947459731","repostId":"2333442688","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2333442688","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1683517837,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2333442688?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-08 11:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AI Could Be a $14 Trillion Opportunity by 2030: Here Are 2 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2333442688","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The future looks bright for all of these AI-powered stocks.","content":"<div>\n<p>This year has seen windfall gains for several artificial intelligence (AI) companies and start-ups. The launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT and the rapid expansion of its user base (100 million active monthly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/05/07/ai-could-be-a-14-trillion-opportunity-by-2030-here/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI Could Be a $14 Trillion Opportunity by 2030: Here Are 2 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI Could Be a $14 Trillion Opportunity by 2030: Here Are 2 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-08 11:50 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/05/07/ai-could-be-a-14-trillion-opportunity-by-2030-here/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This year has seen windfall gains for several artificial intelligence (AI) companies and start-ups. The launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT and the rapid expansion of its user base (100 million active monthly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/05/07/ai-could-be-a-14-trillion-opportunity-by-2030-here/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ISRG":"直觉外科公司","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/05/07/ai-could-be-a-14-trillion-opportunity-by-2030-here/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2333442688","content_text":"This year has seen windfall gains for several artificial intelligence (AI) companies and start-ups. The launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT and the rapid expansion of its user base (100 million active monthly users in January) triggered an intense race in the tech sector to rapidly explore and commercialize AI capabilities. Ark Investment Management's Big Ideas 2023 report claims that AI software can earn up to $14 trillion in revenues by 2030.Despite all the excitement, it makes sense for retail investors to take a step back and learn to differentiate fantasy from reality. Betting on companies with unproven AI projects and technologies seems to be a risky proposition. Instead, opting for well-established companies with proven AI technologies can be an excellent way to tap into the $14 trillion AI revolution.With that in mind, here's why Microsoft and Intuitive Surgical can prove to be top-notch AI stocks for long-term investors.MicrosoftOnce known mostly for its office-productivity software and industry-leading applications such as Word, Excel, and Powerpoint, Microsoft successfully established itself as a prominent cloud-infrastructure provider. According to Synergy Research estimates, Microsoft's Azure accounted for a 23% share of the global cloud infrastructure services market in the first quarter of 2023, two percentage points higher since the third quarter of 2022. Azure has been gradually diminishing Amazon's advantage, which saw Amazon Web Services' (AWS) market share drop by a percentage point from 34% to 33% in the same time frame.Thanks to the partnership with OpenAI, Microsoft is focusing on strengthening its existing offerings by adding generative AI capabilities. The company launched a ChatGPT-integrated version of its Bing search engine (with improved search results), which is making rapid inroads in the internet search market. Microsoft integrated AI tools in its suite of office software to improve productivity and user experience. Finally, Microsoft's Azure cloud platform now offers a range of services, including AI-powered accessibility solutions and AI-as-a-Service (processing and storage power, framework, and other infrastructure) for clients to build and run their own AI and machine-learning applications.While the actual monetization potential of these AI capabilities is not yet apparent, Microsoft's recent quarterly performance (ending March 31, 2023) raises hopes. The company's revenues rose by 7% year over year to $52.9 billion, driven by robust growth in AI-driven areas such as cloud and productivity and business processes. Net income is also up by 9% year over year to $18.3 billion.Microsoft is currently trading at 33 times earnings, significantly higher than the Nasdaq Composite's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.5. While the company may seem relatively expensive, the premium valuation is justified. Unlike many technology companies that make the Nasdaq Composite index, Microsoft is a highly profitable company that returns significant value to shareholders as dividends and share repurchases. Microsoft is also at the forefront of the ongoing AI revolution. Hence, I consider this a smart pick for May 2023.Intuitive SurgicalIt's no secret that Intuitive Surgical is a leader in the minimally invasive robotic-assisted surgery space. While the decline in the volume of elective surgeries in the early days of the Covid-19 outbreak and subsequent supply chain challenges affected the company's financials in the short run, this medical device player has mostly recovered from the shock.Intuitive Surgical's da Vinci Surgical platform leverages the power of AI and machine learning to analyze data about previously performed procedures and generate insights. This helps surgeons improve pre-surgical planning as well as decision-making during an operation, which in turn leads to better patient outcomes. The company plans to use AI for a range of other activities, such as training medical students and residents and selecting the best patient candidates for surgery.The recent investment of $12.9 million in Kela Health, a platform that uses AI to reduce surgical complications, is expected to further add to the company's AI capabilities in the medtech space.Intuitive Surgical reported impressive Q1 (ending March 31, 2023) results despite foreign-exchange headwinds and COVID-19-related disruptions in China. Revenues and earnings surpassed consensus estimates, driven mainly by a 26% year-over-year jump in da Vinci procedure volume. The company's installed base grew by 12% year over year to 7,779 da Vinci systems.Intuitive Surgical is trading at nearly 82 times earnings, while the U.S. medical equipment industry is trading at a P/E multiple of 74. However, the premium valuation seems justified considering da Vinci's large installed base and the success of its razor-and-blade business model. The sale of a new da Vinci system not only brings in upfront revenues but also significant recurring revenues for the accessories and disposables used by these machines. The company's AI-driven robotic surgery system also benefits from high switching costs. Hence, with Intuitive Surgical well positioned to maintain its market-leading position in the coming years, investors can consider picking this stock in May 2023.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,"ISRG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992976429,"gmtCreate":1661256467864,"gmtModify":1676536483456,"author":{"id":"4098343358404650","authorId":"4098343358404650","name":"暗涌 它日 mochekYao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4d2fb5cfce52c0c6c677c5256368e431","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098343358404650","idStr":"4098343358404650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ADBE\">$Adobe(ADBE)$</a>ok","listText":"<a 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