$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ the weather has been a little dry and hot for a few days now and the spring time Qing Ming rain is a good respite, both for myself and the plants I see while walking around. Got caught by a random downpour though, so that was a little annoying. The Good Friday/Easter Sunday combo is also a nice break, and whether you observe the holiday, the fun side of enjoying various chocolate is a thing for all ages. I have been enjoying some self made chocolate egg myself.
$POP MART(09992)$ has been in total anarchy. Despite posting reasonable numbers, it seems the market has determined that Labubu falling off the hype train is a killer blow and started dumping the shares, leading to constant slides. Maybe it was exacerbated by the chaotic global environment due to the Iran US war, but it likely will keep taking a beating until morale improves, or somehow Pop Mart strikes gold. I believe there's an avenue for Pop Mart to pursue collaborations with known and popular IP to create a win-win scenario, but that would not be as significant.
There will be more pain ahead, if Iran was the tired party and USA can thump its chest saying that it has won, maybe it will be a start of something good, because everyone is still so beholden to the US markets. Embarrassingly enough, Iran has been stubborn enough and USA looks to be an extremely frustrated figure, constantly having to declare that they have won, will win, yet still continue fighting. There will now be a more problematic Iran in the region who will not hesitate to lash out at anyone. The biggest curiosity I have is how the markets will react if it is obvious that the US did not win, will it simply celebrate the war ending and go up, or will it worry about further shakiness and stay anaemic.
Also, with rising energy costs, AI stocks will take a hit because they guzzle on electricity. They are struggling to even make money, and constantly have to burn cash to keep up with the latest chip to have the best computing power. The next few quarters will start to reflect a spike in expenditure for energy and the market will not respond kindly. Openai might just be dead in the water even before they get listed.
I see some light tremors going through the market now, oil prices are slowly creeping back up, diesel is truly up to concerning levels, concerns about fertilisers (urea production in the gulf countries) for the next planting season... the dominoes will continue falling. As it is, everything is pricier due to hormuz being choked, but further stoppages will directly impact food prices (not just through the increased cost of transportation) if fertiliser availability for the window is affected (although I remain unconvinced that even if the war stopped today, everything can continue as it was without any hiccups). I don't see why there should even be any optimism for the market to be in the green, because the war ending is not a guarantee.
Am I the only one waiting for the next big meltdown? I simply do not believe that Iran will back off easily. They will use everything in their arsenal (including cheaper shahed drones) to batter USA and Israel, and surrounding gulf states to ensure maximum pain for everyone. The strait of hormuz is a reflection of the war, USA may be stronger in sheer force, but they are helpless if Iran does not play ball. Once the market truly abandons faith in the beautiful words by Trump, everything should take a huge dive then it is time to buy.
It is ridiculous that despite the chaos sowed by the us president, the world is still so beholden to the usd and to the us treasury bonds. So much so that gold faces a slide while the war rages on. All because gold does not gain interest, but the war holds interest rates up and therefore it was deemed better to head back into us markets because interest rates will not be coming down any time soon.
$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ it is a little shocking to see that PDD missed estimates and yet made a rally on the market. Maybe there is strong optimism on the market for their future, especially with the Xi and Trum0 summit still to come, which could allow for better business opportunities for chinese companies. Then again, chinese stocks have been making some gains through the Iran war, so on some level, the positivity reflected could be related. I would be skeptical about how the prices spiked, albeit with the opening and closing being reasonably close, because there is nothing absolutely concrete that can be a reason for the wild prices being paid on the day.
Ah didn't make the poll in time, but I would gave expected an increase of less than 3%. And would have been wrong. Interesting how wildly the prices swung, I am surprised by the interest and will read up their earnings, there has to be good prospects ahead and solid fundamentals to attract some wild buys.