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- TH13TH13
  ·2022-03-14
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  The Fed's boots landed this week, can we buy the bottom?
  美联储加息之后，就是美股抄底之时？历史经验表明，美股在利率上升后将经历更大的波动，但这并不意味着牛市已经结束。事实上，根据LPL Financial的数据，在之前的8个加息周期中，标普500指数在每次
  The Fed's boots landed this week, can we buy the bottom?
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Historical experience shows that U.S. stocks will experience greater volatility after rising interest rates, but this does not mean that the bull market is over. In fact, according to LPL Financial, in the previous eight rate hike cycles, the S&P 500 index rose in the year after each of its first rate hike. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is superimposed on the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations. The three major U.S. stock indexes have been very weak this year. However, on the other hand, the short-term rapid decline has released some risks, which has made the stock indexes more attractive. After all, U.S. stocks are YYDS.</p><p>Of the three major stock indexes, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is currently down the most, down 17.9% year-to-date. The S&P 500 index fell nearly 12%, ranking fourth in the worst start in the history of U.S. stocks. The top three were 2009, 2020, and 1935, which corresponded to the global financial crisis, the global outbreak of the new crown, and the U.S. economic crisis. But the miraculous thing is that the S&P 500 index has all risen sharply in the past three years to the end of the year. This time we will wait and see.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a1f4c3daebe6531bc63c89d464fc94\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of market sentiment, the risk appetite of the whole market is now declining rapidly, similar to that in 2008 and 2015, but there is still a certain distance from the panic in early 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a801f787feca93a0896535a1106f7d51\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bank of America's panic index has also reached the vicinity of extreme fear, and it has been going on for nearly two weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9054da0bdf5f02b31b06cd8baba3e52\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Panic selling by hedge funds has also reached an extreme in the short term. Hedge funds' U.S. stock positions have fallen by 3% in the past two weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9de9be7eb59a648971081ccc69bbfe2a\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the intraday volatility of the U.S. stock market has also returned to the level at the beginning of 2020, indicating that the panic in the market has further spread.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1ecf8535511f48ae987dfe758ff2e3\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Historical experience shows that U.S. stocks will experience greater volatility after rising interest rates, but this does not mean that the bull market is over. In fact, according to LPL Financial, in the previous eight rate hike cycles, the S&P 500 index rose in the year after each of its first rate hike.</p><p>This week, the \"Super Central Bank Week\" kicked off, led by the Federal Reserve. Britain, Japan, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia will all announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>On March 17 (Thursday), the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce interest rate decisions, policy statements and economic expectations, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also hold a press conference afterwards.</p><p>Affected by factors such as the uncertain situation in Ukraine, increased European and American sanctions against Russia, and soaring commodity prices, the entire financial market may continue to fluctuate violently. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will be cautious about rate hike and may not be at every FOMC meeting this year. rate hike, and there may not be a single 50 basis point rate hike this year. In addition, economists also expect the Fed dot plot to show four to five rate hike this year.</p><p>However, at present, fund companies are generally not optimistic about the US stock market outlook. After Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end S&P 500 target from 5,100 points to 4,900 points in February, its latest report lowered it to 4,700 points again. The main reason is that economic fundamentals will face more challenges and the performance growth rate of listed companies is lower than expected.</p><p>Many economists on Wall Street predict that there may be a stagflation in the U.S. and global economies in the near future, and the probability of the economy falling into recession next year will reach 35%.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's boots landed this week, can we buy the bottom?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's boots landed this week, can we buy the bottom?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-14 14:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After the Federal Reserve's rate hike, is it the time for US stocks to buy bottoms? Historical experience shows that U.S. stocks will experience greater volatility after rising interest rates, but this does not mean that the bull market is over. In fact, according to LPL Financial, in the previous eight rate hike cycles, the S&P 500 index rose in the year after each of its first rate hike. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is superimposed on the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations. The three major U.S. stock indexes have been very weak this year. However, on the other hand, the short-term rapid decline has released some risks, which has made the stock indexes more attractive. After all, U.S. stocks are YYDS.</p><p>Of the three major stock indexes, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is currently down the most, down 17.9% year-to-date. The S&P 500 index fell nearly 12%, ranking fourth in the worst start in the history of U.S. stocks. The top three were 2009, 2020, and 1935, which corresponded to the global financial crisis, the global outbreak of the new crown, and the U.S. economic crisis. But the miraculous thing is that the S&P 500 index has all risen sharply in the past three years to the end of the year. This time we will wait and see.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a1f4c3daebe6531bc63c89d464fc94\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of market sentiment, the risk appetite of the whole market is now declining rapidly, similar to that in 2008 and 2015, but there is still a certain distance from the panic in early 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a801f787feca93a0896535a1106f7d51\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bank of America's panic index has also reached the vicinity of extreme fear, and it has been going on for nearly two weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9054da0bdf5f02b31b06cd8baba3e52\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Panic selling by hedge funds has also reached an extreme in the short term. Hedge funds' U.S. stock positions have fallen by 3% in the past two weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9de9be7eb59a648971081ccc69bbfe2a\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the intraday volatility of the U.S. stock market has also returned to the level at the beginning of 2020, indicating that the panic in the market has further spread.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1ecf8535511f48ae987dfe758ff2e3\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Historical experience shows that U.S. stocks will experience greater volatility after rising interest rates, but this does not mean that the bull market is over. In fact, according to LPL Financial, in the previous eight rate hike cycles, the S&P 500 index rose in the year after each of its first rate hike.</p><p>This week, the \"Super Central Bank Week\" kicked off, led by the Federal Reserve. Britain, Japan, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia will all announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>On March 17 (Thursday), the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce interest rate decisions, policy statements and economic expectations, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also hold a press conference afterwards.</p><p>Affected by factors such as the uncertain situation in Ukraine, increased European and American sanctions against Russia, and soaring commodity prices, the entire financial market may continue to fluctuate violently. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will be cautious about rate hike and may not be at every FOMC meeting this year. rate hike, and there may not be a single 50 basis point rate hike this year. In addition, economists also expect the Fed dot plot to show four to five rate hike this year.</p><p>However, at present, fund companies are generally not optimistic about the US stock market outlook. After Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end S&P 500 target from 5,100 points to 4,900 points in February, its latest report lowered it to 4,700 points again. The main reason is that economic fundamentals will face more challenges and the performance growth rate of listed companies is lower than expected.</p><p>Many economists on Wall Street predict that there may be a stagflation in the U.S. and global economies in the near future, and the probability of the economy falling into recession next year will reach 35%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191557560","content_text":"美联储加息之后，就是美股抄底之时？历史经验表明，美股在利率上升后将经历更大的波动，但这并不意味着牛市已经结束。事实上，根据LPL Financial的数据，在之前的8个加息周期中，标普500指数在每次首次加息后的一年时间里都会有所上升。俄乌冲突叠加美联储加息预期，美股三大股指今年来走势非常弱，但是从另一面来看，短期急速下跌释放部分风险，反而让股指更具有吸引力，毕竟美股是YYDS。三大股指中，以科技股为重的纳斯达克指数目前下跌幅度最大，年初至今下跌17.9%。标普500指数跌近12%，这在美股历史上最差开局排第四位，排在前三位的是2009、2020以及1935年，这三次分别对应全球金融危机、全球新冠爆发以及美国经济危机。但神奇的是，这三年到年末的时候标普500指数全部大幅上涨，这一次拭目以待。从市场情绪来看，现在全市场风险偏好迅速下降，和2008年、2015年类似，但是相较于2020年初的恐慌情绪还有一定距离。美银的恐慌指数也来到极度恐惧附近，而且已经持续了近两周。对冲基金的恐慌性抛售在短期内也达到一个极端。近两周时间对冲基金的美股仓位下降3%。另外美股市场的日内波动率也回到2020年初的水平，表明市场的恐慌情绪进一步扩散。历史经验表明，美股在利率上升后将经历更大的波动，但这并不意味着牛市已经结束。事实上，根据LPL Financial的数据，在之前的8个加息周期中，标普500指数在每次首次加息后的一年时间里都会有所上升。本周，“超级央行周”拉开大幕，由美联储领衔，英国、日本以及巴西、土耳其、印尼均将公布利率决议。3月17日（周四），美联储FOMC将公布利率决议、政策声明及经济预期，美联储主席鲍威尔也在此后将召开新闻发布会。受到乌克兰局势不确定、欧美对俄制裁加码和大宗商品价格飙升等因素影响，整个金融市场可能会持续剧烈波动，预计美联储将会对加息持谨慎态度，今年可能不会在每次FOMC会议上加息，并且今年可能不会有单次50个基点的加息幅度。此外，经济学家还预计美联储点阵图将会显示今年加息四至五次。不过，目前基金公司普遍对美股后市不太乐观。高盛继2月将年底标普500目标位由5100点下降至4900点后，其最新报告再度下调至4700点，主要理由是经济基本面将面临更多挑战，上市公司业绩增速低于预期。华尔街不少经济学家预计，美国和全球经济近期有可能会出现滞涨，明年经济陷入衰退的概率达35%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}