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- YongYong9002YongYong9002
  ·2022-11-04
  04.11. 2022
  Meta And Alphabet: Both Are Screaming Bargains, But One Is The Smarter Buy
  SummaryBoth META and GOOG have been crushed in recent weeks, as advertising has slowed along with th
  Meta And Alphabet: Both Are Screaming Bargains, But One Is The Smarter Buy
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- YongYong9002YongYong9002
  ·2022-10-10
  Summary of short ETF strategy
  Time to Short For Profit?--All Markets and Industries Short ETFs
  @WallStreet_Tiger：
  1、Why Need to Short ?The market is more pessimistic about the general market expectations.The CPI has soared to 8.6%. CPI, PPI and other inflation indicators have broken through historical extremes, which is a huge uncertainty for the market.Continued upward inflation has put increasing pressure on the FED to raise interest rates, and the end rate expectation for the current round of rate hikes has risen from about 2.25% at the beginning of the year to the current 3.25% to 4.0%. And behind the interest rate hike, there are growing fears of a recession in the United States.According to statistics, there have been 19 times since the world war II when the S&P 500 has fallen more than 15% at a time. Among them, the combination of economic downturn + Fed rate h
  Time to Short For Profit?--All Markets and Industries Short ETFs
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- YongYong9002YongYong9002
  ·2022-07-21
  Great article! I would like to share it.
  Tesla Q2 Fair But Not Spectacular
  SummaryQ2 revenues in line while earnings beat on Bitcoin sales.Automotive margins were a little dis
  Tesla Q2 Fair But Not Spectacular
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- YongYong9002YongYong9002
  ·2022-07-21
  Great article! I would like to share it.
  Tesla Q2 Fair But Not Spectacular
  SummaryQ2 revenues in line while earnings beat on Bitcoin sales.Automotive margins were a little dis
  Tesla Q2 Fair But Not Spectacular
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- YongYong9002YongYong9002
  ·2022-03-17
  Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
  3 Growth Stocks You Won't Regret Buying in This Market Correction
  Their share prices are beaten down, but their underlying businesses are strong.
  3 Growth Stocks You Won't Regret Buying in This Market Correction
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- YongYong9002YongYong9002
  ·2022-03-16
  Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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It could deliver almost 60% annual returns through 2027, if Zuckerberg can deliver the expected growth.</li><li>Mark Zuckerberg has 55% voting power and is effectively the king of Meta, and no one on earth can stop him from spending $180 billion on the Metaverse.</li><li>There are currently 100 million VR users, spending $500 billion in the global metaverse. META has 1.6% market share and very few people are embracing Meta&#39;s vision. Reality Labs is the most expensive, speculative &#34;build it and they will come&#34; bet in history.</li><li>In contrast, GOOG is a global advertising dynamo with a 26% growing cloud business that&#39;s expected to be generating $9 billion in operating profit by 2027, years before Realty Labs MIGHT break even. GOOG is an AA-rated, Ultra SWAN (sleep well at night) blue-chip with 93rd percentile risk management according to S&amp;P. META has the potential for 4X returns in 5 years, but GOOG could nearly triple, and deliver 21% annual returns. Even though META and GOOG are both screaming buys, I consider GOOG the safer, less speculative, and smarter buy right now.</li><li>I do much more than just articles at The Dividend Kings: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fe52b994194e54b84e654197a9f5330\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At some point, big tech was bound to start missing earnings, having grown too large to be immune from a slowing economy.</p><p>This earnings season that proved to be the case, with Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), Meta (NASDAQ:META) and Amazon (AMZN), all disappointing on earnings and/or guidance.</p><p>The results for the stock prices were ferocious and swift. Here were the peak declines right after missing earnings, including after hours.</p><ul><li>MSFT: -8% (the next day)</li><li>GOOG: -9% (the next day)</li><li>AMZN: -23% (after hours)</li><li>META: -27% (after-hours)</li></ul><p>All told $360 billion in market cap were wiped out last week, and the number would have been much larger had it not been for a two week bear market rally driven by technicals including yet another &#34;Fed pivot&#34; hopium rally.</p><p>When some of the world&#39;s biggest and best blue chips collapse, it naturally causes many investors to wonder if the investment thesis is broken or if it&#39;s a great chance to be &#34;greedy when others are fearful.&#34;</p><p>Several DK members have requested updates on these blue chips so today I want to take a look at META and GOOG to provide the best and most up-to-date fundamentals-focused analysis of each company&#39;s prospects.</p><p>So let&#39;s take a look at the good, bad, and ugly for META and GOOG to see why META might possibly be broken, while GOOG can still make you rich.</p><p>Let&#39;s start with META, the most troubled of the FAANG stocks.</p><p>Meta Platforms: A Potentially Wonderful Company At The Mercy Of A Mad King<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94b7c077967965756e234a35664742a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>Mark Zuckerberg holds the title as the person responsible, at least in large part, for the second greatest decline in investor wealth in history, an impressive $800 billion.</p><ul><li>META is down 78% off its record highs</li></ul><p>This was the second 20%-plus single day crash for Meta,</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706204351d633b8db7c62d0aa7eaa395\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Back in February, Meta became the first company in history to lose a quarter trillion in value in a single day.</p><p>This time the decline was about $60 billion owing to Meta having fallen to a $300 billion market cap.</p><p>Why did Wall Street gut Meta so ferociously?</p><p>Was it Meta&#39;s struggles to grow its global user base?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84447a607d2353f7986396e76143f54\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>investor presentation</p><p>Not really. Total users are growing at a slow pace, but still growing and the percent of monthly users who are using Meta&#39;s platforms daily remains steady at 79%. What about sales?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06ac6fe99afe499d7c54249692ded889\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>investor presentation</p><p>While sales are down from last year, that&#39;s mostly due to the overall pullback in advertising spend and Q3 revenue was stable compared to Q1 and Q2.</p><p>What about revenue per family/user?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c18c27bea2158ab29ea17321b73bd226\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>investor presentation</p><p>That&#39;s been steady for two years now, which isn&#39;t great in terms of sales growth. But again, part of that is from the fact that global advertising is struggling right now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/493c782e7fe88c7d31ccbc5c125f2a63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Daily Shot</p><p>So what caused the market to freak out over META and send shares down as much as 27% in a matter of hours?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4311b4965b6c8f91931fc8f2cf0e140d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>investor presentation</p><p>META has a big spending problem, almost doubling its growth spending on Reality Labs, its massive 10-year bet on the Metaverse.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e2cd70c06797efd8d8e30e25fdbe8da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>investor presentation</p><p>META&#39;s EPS has been hammered by spending at Reality Labs, and is now expected to decline 34% in 2022 and another 15% in 2023.</p><p>Why? Partially due to the 2023 recession the bond market now considers a 100% certainty.</p><p>But also because of this.</p><blockquote><b>We do anticipate that Reality Labs operating losses in 2023 will grow significantly year-over-year.</b>Beyond 2023, we expect to pace Reality Labs investments such that we can achieve our goal of growing overall company operating income in the long run.&#34; - Mark Zuckerberg, Q3 conference call (emphasis added)</blockquote><p>Last year META lost $10 billion on the Metaverse, and this year it&#39;s expected to lose even more. And per its CEO and founder, next year &#34;significantly more&#34; still.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4e892aa9bb18f5f8d13a588dae8dd1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>Based on Zuckerberg&#39;s comments about &#34;pacing&#34; spending beyond 2023 analysts expect capex to remain elevated by about 2X compared to before Meta changed its name and went all in on the Metaverse.</p><p>Mark Zuckerberg: The Mad King Is The Biggest Reason Meta Is A Speculative Blue Chip</p><p>Mark Zuckerberg holds 55% of voting power at META, thanks to his class B shares. Until now, that hasn&#39;t been a problem, even though he&#39;s been effectively the &#34;emperor&#34; of Facebook since the beginning.</p><p>But now that former COO Sheryl Sandberg, who built the META ad model into a free cash flow minting machine, has left? Well, it appears there&#39;s no one with the credibility in META&#39;s c-suite to stand up to the mad king and his potentially disastrous $100-plus billion boondoggle.</p><p>But isn&#39;t Zuckerberg a visionary? A mad genius who turned a simple and what many thought was a stupid idea into a formerly $1.1 trillion company?</p><p>Yes, but there&#39;s a fine line between genius and madness and Zuckerberg is potentially on the wrong side of it. Why?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8c05494f0e487fb3a61b3f300f45626\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Statista</p><p>The potential market for VR in general is about 100 million people today and that&#39;s expected to grow to about 130 million by 2027.</p><p>META is struggling to grow its user base beyond its current 3 billion, because it&#39;s largely saturated its addressable market of Internet-0connected people around the world.</p><p>Zuckerberg has a grand vision of a Meta, controlled Metaverse, a digital world in which we all wear VR goggles and live second lives online.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d11876b87180b39c2b209e00ea94ac32\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Engadget</p><p>Meta&#39;s &#34;significantly higher losses&#34; in Reality Labs next year is due to launching the Quest Pro, a $1,500 VR headset that costs 5X more than the Quest 2 headset.</p><p>META&#39;s timing on the Metaverse literally came at the worst possible time.</p><ul><li>the company pivoted to massive spending on new and untested tech that it admits might not make money for 10 years.</li><li>just as the speculative tech bubble burst</li><li>and now is launching a $1500 VR headset that costs more than an iPhone during a recession</li><li>today even Apple is starting to struggle with iPhone sales</li><li>and the Quest Pro is much less useful or desirable than an iPhone</li></ul><p>And I&#39;m not the only one skeptical of Meta&#39;s giant pivot into a sci-fi future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab726475339a2554c9db03d4b123b08a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"201\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>Reality Labs revenue was about $721 million in 2021 and growing at 9% annually in recent years.</p><ul><li>not exactly a thrilling level of growth</li></ul><p>That grow rate isn&#39;t expected to improve until 2025, and even by 2027, when Metaverse revenue is expected to double, it&#39;s expected to total $2.8 billion, just over 1% of the company&#39;s sales.</p><p>All while generating $20.3 billion in operating losses, by 2025.</p><p>Reality Labs was founded in 2021, when Meta changed its name and its mission.</p><ul><li>$79.5 billion in cumulative operating losses through 2025</li><li>with no signs of declining annual losses, much less profits</li></ul><p>Zuckerberg is either crazy or a genius, and so far all the evidence points to crazy.</p><ul><li>Potentially $180 to $200 billion in Metaverse losses by 2030 if they keep burning $20 billion after 2025</li></ul><p>But what if Zuckerberg is a Steve Jobs style genius? Jobs famously said that you often can&#39;t ask customers what they want in a product, because true innovation is so revolutionary they don&#39;t know they want it.</p><blockquote><i>If I</i>had<i>asked</i>people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” - Henry Ford</blockquote><p>How many people were excited about the iPod when it was introduced in 2001? It was just a better, sleeker, and cooler MP3 player. And yet it transformed Apple into a cash flow machine.</p><p>And then gave Steve Jobs the credibility and &#34;reality distortion field&#34; to change the world with the iPhone.</p><p>In other words, truly revolutionary change requires a &#34;build it and they will come&#34; mindset. At least that&#39;s how Mark Zuckerberg is spinning his $200 billion bet.</p><p>The difference between Zuckerberg and Henry Ford and Steve Jobs is that neither of them risked even a fraction of the money Zuckerberg is planning on.</p><p>For what&#39;s objectively a very speculative bet.</p><p>For every 10 mad geniuses trying to change the world with their inventions, nine of them fail. And none of them have ever had the resources or power of Mark Zuckerberg, the mad king of Facebook.</p><p>It Wasn&#39;t All Bad</p><blockquote>Our positive takeaways from Meta’s results were that the network effect remains intact given the firm’s encouraging user count and engagement metrics, which we think position Meta to accelerate revenue growth in late 2023, with the assumption that macro uncertainty eases.</blockquote><blockquote>In addition, Reels is creating incremental engagement time per user and has also displayed early signs of high monetization potential. Plus, the firm continues to invest in enhancing its ad measurement capabilities while adding new advertising options for businesses, which we think will further drive a turnaround.&#34; - Morningstar</blockquote><p>META has been very badly hurt by Apple&#39;s change in private policy, which automatically blocks data tracking unless users specifically opt-in. Just 25% of iOS users have opted in and that number appears to be stable but not improving.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10a5a150ede879f1ebd43fb55d4fb8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Statista</p><p>iPhone has 55% market share in the US, the most lucrative digital ad market in the world. This means that with this single privacy policy change, social media companies saw their user data collapse by 42% and it might never be coming back.</p><p>META, GOOG, and AMZN are the three giants of digital advertising, and each one is hurt to a different degree by this privacy policy change.</p><ul><li>META most of all</li><li>GOOG less so because it has alternative data sources (more than 7 services with over 1 billion global users)</li><li>AMZN least of all because its ad-algos are mostly running on its own proprietary data</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd8dea4f3c18e533cf6877b3017340f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>Meta&#39;suser baseis expected to grow slowly over time, but the 58 analysts that cover META (more than any other company on Wall Street) don&#39;t believe the Social Media king is dying.</p><p>Average revenue per user is also expected to recover once the recession is over, though grow by just a modest 15% by 2025.</p><p>And<b>free cash flow, which has been cut in half in the last 12 months, is expected to nearly triple to $43 billion by 2027.</b></p><p>And thanks to a much lower market cap,<b>Meta&#39;s consensus buybacks of $93 billion from 2023 to 2027</b>could buy back a lot of stock.</p><ul><li>34% of shares at current valuations</li><li>up to 10% of shares each year</li></ul><p>And what about Meta&#39;s growth prospects after it gets past the 2023 recession and this painful pivot to the Metaverse?</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Investment Strategy</b></td><td><b>Yield</b></td><td><b>LT Consensus Growth</b></td><td><b>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</b></td><td><b>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</b></td><td><b>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</b></td><td><b>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</b></td><td><p><b>10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</b></p></td></tr><tr><td><b>Meta Platforms</b></td><td><b>0%</b></td><td><b>15.3%</b></td><td><b>15.3%</b></td><td><b>10.7%</b></td><td><b>8.4%</b></td><td><b>8.5</b></td><td><b>2.25</b></td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq</td><td>0.8%</td><td>11.5%</td><td>12.3%</td><td>8.6%</td><td>6.3%</td><td>11.4</td><td>1.85</td></tr><tr><td>Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF</td><td>3.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>12.1%</td><td>8.4%</td><td>6.2%</td><td>11.7</td><td>1.82</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>11.1%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.5%</td><td>13.1</td><td>1.71</td></tr><tr><td><b>Alphabet</b></td><td><b>0.0%</b></td><td><b>11.1%</b></td><td><b>11.1%</b></td><td><b>7.8%</b></td><td><b>5.5%</b></td><td><b>13.1</b></td><td><b>1.71</b></td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.8%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>10.3%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>14.6</td><td>1.62</td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Ycharts, Morningstar)</i></p><p>Analysts remain bullish on META, far more so than Alphabet in fact, expecting META to potentially deliver 15.3% long-term returns while GOOG is expected to match the aristocrats and modestly beat the S&amp;P over time.</p><p>And that doesn&#39;t include valuation, and there&#39;s no question that at 4.9X cash adjusted trough 2023 earnings, META is trading at a fire sale price.</p><p>Meta Is A Screaming Buy... If You Trust Zuckerberg&#39;s Vision</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>Historical Fair Value Multiples (8-Years)</b></td><td><b>2021</b></td><td><b>2022</b></td><td><b>2023</b></td><td><b>2024</b></td><td><b>2025</b></td><td><p><b>12-Month Forward Fair Value</b></p></td></tr><tr><td>Earnings</td><td>26.84</td><td>$369.59</td><td>$224.38</td><td>$224.38</td><td>$286.92</td><td>$364.22</td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td>$369.59</td><td>$224.38</td><td>$224.38</td><td>$286.92</td><td>$364.22</td><td><b>$224.38</b></td></tr><tr><td>Current Price</td><td>$94.82</td></tr><tr><td><p>Discount To Fair Value</p></td><td>74.34%</td><td>57.74%</td><td>57.74%</td><td>66.95%</td><td>73.97%</td><td><b>57.74%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Upside To Fair Value</td><td>289.78%</td><td>136.64%</td><td>136.64%</td><td>202.59%</td><td>284.12%</td><td><b>136.64%</b></td></tr><tr><td>2022 EPS</td><td>2023 EPS</td><td>2022 Weighted EPS</td><td>2023 Weighted EPS</td><td>12-Month Forward EPS</td><td><i><b>12-Month Average Fair Value Forward PE</b></i></td><td><i><b>Current Forward PE</b></i></td><td><p><i><b>Current Forward Cash-Adjusted PE</b></i></p></td></tr><tr><td>$8.36</td><td>$8.36</td><td>$1.13</td><td>$7.23</td><td>$8.36</td><td><i><b>26.8</b></i></td><td><i><b>11.3</b></i></td><td><i><b>4.9</b></i></td></tr></tbody></table><p>IF META does grow at 15% over time, then historically it&#39;s worth about 27X earnings and today it trades at 11.3, and just 4.9X cash-adjusted earnings.</p><ul><li>a bargain by even private equity standards</li></ul><p>Its PEG ratio is 0.32, hyper-growth (potentially) at an absurdly wonderful price.</p><p>Meta 2024 Consensus Total Return Potential<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62054bc6735d5b3012c6d1da25de4e92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>If META can grow as expected and return to market-determined fair value consistent with its expected growth rate, then within two years it could nearly triple, delivering 63% annual returns.</p><ul><li>about 6X more than the S&amp;P 500</li></ul><p>Meta 2027 Consensus Total Return Potential<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b8d1f772339dbea925e58d0134800da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>META has Amazon like return potential over the next five year, IF the turnaround is successful.</p><ul><li>326% consensus return potential through 2027</li><li>32% CAGR</li><li>about 7X more than the S&amp;P 500</li></ul><p>Meta Investment Decision Tool<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9bd4292ef2e7e5731cd633b4998777\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>DK</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0937d49464fcb7f2e82aaaf59250190b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool)</p><p><i>(Source: Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool)</i></p><p>META is as close to a perfect<i>speculative</i>hyper-growth blue-chip opportunity as exists on Wall Street for anyone comfortable with its risk profile. Look at how it compares to the S&amp;P 500.</p><ul><li><b>57% discount to fair value vs. 2% S&amp;P = 55% better valuation</b></li><li><b>almost 50% better long-term annual return potential</b></li><li><b>about 4X higher risk-adjusted expected returns</b></li></ul><p>Alphabet: One Of The World&#39;s Best Growth Blue-Chips Is Doing Just Fine</p><p>Bottom line up front, GOOG is a far safer and better run company than Meta.</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Company</b></td><td><b>Meta Platforms</b></td><td><b>Alphabet</b></td><td><b>META Wins</b></td><td><b>GOOG Wins</b></td></tr><tr><td>LT Growth Consensus</td><td><b>15.3%</b></td><td>11.1%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Total Return Potential</td><td><b>15.3%</b></td><td>11.1%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>LT Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td><b>10.7%</b></td><td>7.7%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td><b>8.4%</b></td><td>5.5%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Years To Double</td><td><b>8.5</b></td><td>13.0</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Historical Total Return</td><td>11.6%</td><td><b>19.8%</b></td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>12-Month Consensus Total Return Potential</td><td><b>68%</b></td><td>40%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>12-Month Fundamentally Justified Total Return Potential</td><td><b>137%</b></td><td>47%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>5-Year Consensus Return Potential</td><td><b>29% to 45%</b></td><td>19% to 21%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Discount To Fair Value</td><td><b>57%</b></td><td>32%</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Cash-Adjusted PE</td><td><b>4.9</b></td><td>9.7</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>DK Rating</td><td><b>Ultra Value Buy</b></td><td>Very Strong Buy</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend King&#39;s Automatic Investment Decision Score</td><td><b>100% A+ Excellent</b></td><td><b>100% A+ Excellent</b></td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Quality Score</td><td>84%</td><td><b>97%</b></td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Safety Score</td><td><b>100%</b></td><td><b>100%</b></td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Dependability Score</td><td>67%</td><td><b>94%</b></td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P LT Risk Management Global Percentile</td><td>63% Above-Average, Low Risk</td><td><b>93% Exceptional (Very Low Risk)</b></td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Credit Rating</td><td>AA- Stable</td><td><b>AA+ Stable</b></td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>30-Year Bankruptcy Risk</td><td>0.55%</td><td><b>0.29%</b></td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Return On Capital (12-Months)</td><td>46%</td><td><b>68%</b></td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Return On Capital Industry Percentile</td><td>60%</td><td><b>64%</b></td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Return On Capital (13-Year Median)</td><td>95%</td><td><b>74%</b></td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Return On Capital (5-Year trend)</td><td>-16%</td><td><b>-1.0%</b></td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td><b>Sum</b></td><td><b>14</b></td><td><b>11</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Zen Research Terminal)</i></p><p>Meta is the better value, BUT only if you are comfortable with its speculative nature and risk profile.</p><p>Mad king Mark is running the show and if he wants to run it straight into the ground you have no say in the matter.</p><p>META&#39;s AA-stable credit rating is excellent, but GOOG&#39;s AA+ stable rating is slightly better, with just 0.29% 30-year bankruptcy risk according to S&amp;P.</p><p>META&#39;s 68th S&amp;P long-term risk management percentile is above-average bordering on good, indicating low risk.</p><p>But GOOG&#39;s 93rd percentile risk management is exceptional, indicating a very low risk, and you don&#39;t have to worry about a CEO king who for now looks to have lost his mind.</p><p>GOOG&#39;s historical profitability is superior to META&#39;s, and its wide moat has been far more stable in recent years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43f1ca84d4462833213817298e24e113\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Daily Shot</p><p>And YouTube, the crown jewel in GOOG&#39;s social media crown, is far more popular with young people than Facebook or Instagram.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a1a3b04fa6ad74bec76f543d4b551bc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>And unlike META, which is 100% reliant on advertising, GOOG is a far more diversified company.</p><ul><li>its #4 in Cloud Computing</li></ul><p>GOOG&#39;s &#34;other bets&#34; it&#39;s moonshot programs, are expected to have $2.8 billion in sales in 2027, just like Reality Labs. The only difference is that GOOG spends about $3.2 billion annually on other bets, and that part of the GOOG empire could be worth$50 billion.</p><p>Or to put it another way, META is spending 4X as much money on Reality Labs as GOOG is on Other Bets, and GOOG plans to cut back on that spending in the next year. META plans to increase its spending by about 20%.</p><p>GOOG has so far lost $27 billion on Other Bets, searching for its next world-beater business. META plans to potentially lose $200 billion or 8X as much, on Reality Labs, and for a business model that so far only 100 million people say they are interested in using.</p><ul><li>100 million global VR users, not META VR users</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259efcc5572a42720a588533421b02fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Daily Shot</p><p>GOOG Cloud is a fast growing business. It&#39;s not yet profitable but is expected to become profitable in 2025, a year when META is expected to lose over $20 billion on Reality Labs.</p><p>By 2027 analysts expect Google Cloud to be generating $76 billion in sales (vs $2.8 billion for Reality Labs) and converting that into $9.3 billion in operating income.</p><p>In other words, Google Cloud is a 26% CAGR growing business that&#39;s expected to be minting money far faster than Reality Labs, assuming the Metaverse ever achieves profitability for META.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46de34fc9eecf6693ab7b75e73afab83\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>IOT Analytics</p><p>And unlike the Metaverse which is expected to have 130 million users (maybe) by 2027, cloud computing is a proven industry, growing at 15% per year and which could become a $2 trillion to $10 trillion industry by 2030.</p><blockquote><b>The global Metaverse revenue opportunity could approach $800 billion in 2024 vs. about $500 billion in 2020</b>, based on our analysis and Newzoo, IDC, PWC, Statista and Two Circles data. The primary market for online game makers and gaming hardware may exceed $400 billion in 2024 while opportunities in live entertainment and social media make up the remainder.&#34; -Bloomberg</blockquote><p>Now in fairness to Mr. Zuckerberg and fans of the Metaverse, the Metaverse is already a $500 billion global market. But that&#39;s 80% gaming which META is getting only a small handful off.</p><ul><li>META&#39;s market share in the Metaverse is currently 1.6%</li></ul><p>In other words, with Alphabet the big growth driver is a 26% growing business in a bigger and proven model.</p><p>GOOG&#39;s ability to generate meaningful cash flow from cloud is not speculative, just look at how AWS and Azure are minting money for AMZN and MSFT.</p><p>And speaking of cash flow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e44d44de216c22eb1bb6c72a5bdcb469\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>While META&#39;s FCF is expected to get cut in half to $16 billion in 2022, GOOG&#39;s is expected to remain stable at $68 billion.</p><p>In 2027 META is expected to generate a solid $43 billion in FCF. But GOOG is expected to generate $159 billion, the most in human corporate history.</p><p>2027 FCF Consensus Forecasts:</p><ol><li>GOOG: $159 billion</li><li>AAPL: $155 billion</li><li>AMZN: $137 billion</li><li>MSFT: $101 billion</li><li>META: $43 billion</li></ol><p>And while META is expected to buy back a very healthy $93 billion in stock in the coming years, GOOG is expected to spend $365 billion between 2023 and 2027.</p><p>In fact, in 2027 alone GOOG&#39;s consensus buybacks of $92 billion is as much as analysts expect META to spend over the next four years combined.</p><p>Alphabet Valuation: Potentially A Very Strong Buy And Close To An Ultra Value Buy</p><blockquote>Alphabet reported disappointing third-quarter results as revenue growth decelerated further, driven by the stronger dollar and economic uncertainty, which is increasing hesitancy in ad spending. Assuming less uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, plus the monetization of YouTube Shorts, we expect advertising revenue growth to return to double-digit levels in 2023. Unlike advertising, the cloud business maintained impressive growth.&#34; - Morningstar</blockquote><p>GOOG&#39;s 9% plunge post-earnings was purely for cyclical reasons, nothing to do with its core business. Advertisers are pulling back due to the slowing economy and coming recession.</p><p>Nothing about GOOG&#39;s fundamental core business is broken, unlike META which has chosen to make a $200 billion speculative pivot.</p><ul><li>GOOG is not a turnaround story (20% or less max risk cap rec)</li><li>META is a turnaround story (2.5% or less max risk cap rec)</li></ul><blockquote>YouTube Shorts has already reached 1.5 billion monthly active viewers, reducing fears that Tok-Tok is hurting the business. With the strong network effect present on YouTube, the strength of Google search, and the firm’s ad-tech powered measuring capabilities, Google’s ad revenue miss wasn’t significantly due to Apple privacy changes either.&#34; - Morningstar</blockquote><p>While META is struggling to compete with Tok-Tok (and losing for now), GOOG&#39;s YouTube is holding its own.</p><p>And while META&#39;s user data feed was gutted by Apple&#39;s privacy change, GOOG was barely affected at all.</p><ul><li>GMAIL has almost 2 billion global users</li><li>4.3 billion people use Google Search</li><li>GOOG has over seven services with over 1 billion users.</li></ul><p>This is how GOOG is able to replace that user data that META can&#39;t.</p><p>And the more Google Cloud grows, the more data of all kinds it will have to improve its algorithms even faster.</p><p>META has no plans for cloud computing, and no way to increase its user data feed, unless everyone buys into its Metaverse vision.</p><ul><li>the most passionate Metaverse advocates hate META with a passion</li><li>they view Zuckerberg&#39;s vision as a &#34;Ready Player One&#34; style dystopia</li></ul><p>So with GOOG you have a more diversified and better run business, with far better long-term risk-management according to S&amp;P.</p><p>You have a clear path to growth and far less execution risk than what META faces.</p><p>And most of all, you don&#39;t have a single person who reigns over the company as a potentially mad god king who no one can stop from running into the ground, which is the largest risk to META today.</p><p>Alphabet: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful Price</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>Historical Fair Value Multiples (all years)</b></td><td><b>2021</b></td><td><b>2022</b></td><td><b>2023</b></td><td><b>2024</b></td><td><b>2025</b></td><td><b>12-Month Forward Fair Value</b></td></tr><tr><td>Earnings</td><td>25.79</td><td>$144.68</td><td>$122.76</td><td>$138.75</td><td>$163.25</td><td>$196.26</td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td>$144.68</td><td>$122.76</td><td>$138.75</td><td>$163.25</td><td>$196.26</td><td><b>$136.60</b></td></tr><tr><td>Current Price</td><td>$92.11</td></tr><tr><td><p>Discount To Fair Value</p></td><td>36.34%</td><td>24.97%</td><td>33.61%</td><td>43.58%</td><td>53.07%</td><td><b>32.57%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Upside To Fair Value</td><td>57.08%</td><td>33.28%</td><td>50.64%</td><td>77.23%</td><td>113.07%</td><td><b>48.30%</b></td></tr><tr><td>2022 EPS</td><td>2023 EPS</td><td>2022 Weighted EPS</td><td>2023 Weighted EPS</td><td>12-Month Forward PE</td><td><i><b>12-Month Average Fair Value Forward PE</b></i></td><td><i><b>Current Forward PE</b></i></td><td><p><i><b>Current Forward Cash-Adjusted PE</b></i></p></td></tr><tr><td>$4.76</td><td>$5.38</td><td>$0.64</td><td>$4.66</td><td>$5.30</td><td><i><b>25.8</b></i></td><td><i><b>17.4</b></i></td><td><i><b>9.8</b></i></td></tr></tbody></table><p>GOOG has historically been valued by billions of investors at about 26X earnings, even when it was growing at 4%.</p><p>Thus I&#39;m confident that GOOG growing at 11% (those estimates might increase post-recession) is still worth about 26X earnings.</p><p>Today GOOG trades at 17.4X earnings, but just 9.8X cash-adjusted earnings.</p><ul><li>a PEG of 0.88</li><li>growth at a reasonable price, and in an AA-rated Ultra-SWAN quality 93rd percentile risk management package</li></ul><p>Alphabet 2024 Consensus Total Return Potential<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23868f3dfc1869c9442f0ad0672d2a09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)</p><p>If GOOG grows as expected and returns to historical fair value, it could deliver 73% returns, or 29% CAGR.</p><ul><li>more than 2X greater than the S&amp;P 500</li></ul><p>Alphabet 2027 Consensus Total Return Potential<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c3e07e1e806a11b6863540e10944c6e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)</p><p>If GOOG grows as expected through 2027 it could deliver 165% total returns, or 21% CAGR.</p><ul><li>Buffett-like returns from a blue-chip bargain hiding in plain sight</li><li>about 2.5X more than the S&amp;P 500</li><li><b>19% to 21% CAGR consensus return potential range</b></li></ul><p>GOOG Corp Investment Decision Tool<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9bd4292ef2e7e5731cd633b4998777\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>DK</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6470c914e395e501c75702109cc80d34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool)</p><p>GOOG is as close to a perfect growth blue-chip opportunity as exists on Wall Street for anyone comfortable with its risk profile. Look at how it compares to the S&amp;P 500.</p><ul><li><b>32% discount to fair value vs. 2% S&amp;P = 30% better valuation</b></li><li><b>10% better long-term annual return potential (but with far better safety, quality, and risk-management)</b></li><li><b>about 2X higher risk-adjusted expected returns</b></li></ul><p>Bottom Line: Both META And Alphabet Are Screaming Bargains But The Mad King Zuckerberg Makes GOOG The Smarter, Safer, And Less Speculative Buy Today</p><p>META has become cheap for a good reason, the speculative turnaround plan that CEO/King Zuckerberg has doubled down on.</p><p>I&#39;m personally skeptical that Reality Labs will pay off big, and expect that META will pivot and significantly reduce its spending plans on the Metaverse.</p><p>That&#39;s why I still own the stock, though just a 1% position (2.5% OR LESS is the max recommended position size).</p><p>In contrast, GOOG, while not as undervalued, is also a higher-quality, more diversified, and stronger company in terms of balance sheet and free cash flow generation.</p><p>It&#39;s 93rd percentile risk management and AA+ stable credit rating are a testament to it being one of the greatest world-beaters in existence.</p><p>And with its big growth plan being Google Cloud, a 26% growing business with a $2 trillion addressable market and clear path to profitability, I consider GOOG the safer, less speculative, and smarter investment today.</p><p>Both META and GOOG could make you Buffett-like returns over the next five years, if they grow as expected. But with GOOG I&#39;m a lot more confident that GOOG won&#39;t just meet growth forecasts, but potentially exceed them by a wide margin.</p><p>With META? Well, it&#39;s ride or die with mad king Zuckerberg, and his Ford/Jobs like strategy of &#34;if you build it they will come.&#34; I join with all META shareholders in hoping that king Zuckerberg will spend a lot less than $180 billion on testing his theory and bringing his vision to life.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meta And Alphabet: Both Are Screaming Bargains, But One Is The Smarter Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeta And Alphabet: Both Are Screaming Bargains, But One Is The Smarter Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-04 14:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4551990-meta-alphabet-are-bargains-but-one-is-smarter-buy><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBoth META and GOOG have been crushed in recent weeks, as advertising has slowed along with the economy.META is 57% historically undervalued, trading at just 4.9X cash-adjusted earnings and a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4551990-meta-alphabet-are-bargains-but-one-is-smarter-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4551990-meta-alphabet-are-bargains-but-one-is-smarter-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1169878705","content_text":"SummaryBoth META and GOOG have been crushed in recent weeks, as advertising has slowed along with the economy.META is 57% historically undervalued, trading at just 4.9X cash-adjusted earnings and a PEG of 0.32. It could deliver almost 60% annual returns through 2027, if Zuckerberg can deliver the expected growth.Mark Zuckerberg has 55% voting power and is effectively the king of Meta, and no one on earth can stop him from spending $180 billion on the Metaverse.There are currently 100 million VR users, spending $500 billion in the global metaverse. META has 1.6% market share and very few people are embracing Meta's vision. Reality Labs is the most expensive, speculative \"build it and they will come\" bet in history.In contrast, GOOG is a global advertising dynamo with a 26% growing cloud business that's expected to be generating $9 billion in operating profit by 2027, years before Realty Labs MIGHT break even. GOOG is an AA-rated, Ultra SWAN (sleep well at night) blue-chip with 93rd percentile risk management according to S&P. META has the potential for 4X returns in 5 years, but GOOG could nearly triple, and deliver 21% annual returns. Even though META and GOOG are both screaming buys, I consider GOOG the safer, less speculative, and smarter buy right now.I do much more than just articles at The Dividend Kings: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.At some point, big tech was bound to start missing earnings, having grown too large to be immune from a slowing economy.This earnings season that proved to be the case, with Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), Meta (NASDAQ:META) and Amazon (AMZN), all disappointing on earnings and/or guidance.The results for the stock prices were ferocious and swift. Here were the peak declines right after missing earnings, including after hours.MSFT: -8% (the next day)GOOG: -9% (the next day)AMZN: -23% (after hours)META: -27% (after-hours)All told $360 billion in market cap were wiped out last week, and the number would have been much larger had it not been for a two week bear market rally driven by technicals including yet another \"Fed pivot\" hopium rally.When some of the world's biggest and best blue chips collapse, it naturally causes many investors to wonder if the investment thesis is broken or if it's a great chance to be \"greedy when others are fearful.\"Several DK members have requested updates on these blue chips so today I want to take a look at META and GOOG to provide the best and most up-to-date fundamentals-focused analysis of each company's prospects.So let's take a look at the good, bad, and ugly for META and GOOG to see why META might possibly be broken, while GOOG can still make you rich.Let's start with META, the most troubled of the FAANG stocks.Meta Platforms: A Potentially Wonderful Company At The Mercy Of A Mad KingYchartsMark Zuckerberg holds the title as the person responsible, at least in large part, for the second greatest decline in investor wealth in history, an impressive $800 billion.META is down 78% off its record highsThis was the second 20%-plus single day crash for Meta,BloombergBack in February, Meta became the first company in history to lose a quarter trillion in value in a single day.This time the decline was about $60 billion owing to Meta having fallen to a $300 billion market cap.Why did Wall Street gut Meta so ferociously?Was it Meta's struggles to grow its global user base?investor presentationNot really. Total users are growing at a slow pace, but still growing and the percent of monthly users who are using Meta's platforms daily remains steady at 79%. What about sales?investor presentationWhile sales are down from last year, that's mostly due to the overall pullback in advertising spend and Q3 revenue was stable compared to Q1 and Q2.What about revenue per family/user?investor presentationThat's been steady for two years now, which isn't great in terms of sales growth. But again, part of that is from the fact that global advertising is struggling right now.Daily ShotSo what caused the market to freak out over META and send shares down as much as 27% in a matter of hours?investor presentationMETA has a big spending problem, almost doubling its growth spending on Reality Labs, its massive 10-year bet on the Metaverse.investor presentationMETA's EPS has been hammered by spending at Reality Labs, and is now expected to decline 34% in 2022 and another 15% in 2023.Why? Partially due to the 2023 recession the bond market now considers a 100% certainty.But also because of this.We do anticipate that Reality Labs operating losses in 2023 will grow significantly year-over-year.Beyond 2023, we expect to pace Reality Labs investments such that we can achieve our goal of growing overall company operating income in the long run.\" - Mark Zuckerberg, Q3 conference call (emphasis added)Last year META lost $10 billion on the Metaverse, and this year it's expected to lose even more. And per its CEO and founder, next year \"significantly more\" still.FactSet Research TerminalBased on Zuckerberg's comments about \"pacing\" spending beyond 2023 analysts expect capex to remain elevated by about 2X compared to before Meta changed its name and went all in on the Metaverse.Mark Zuckerberg: The Mad King Is The Biggest Reason Meta Is A Speculative Blue ChipMark Zuckerberg holds 55% of voting power at META, thanks to his class B shares. Until now, that hasn't been a problem, even though he's been effectively the \"emperor\" of Facebook since the beginning.But now that former COO Sheryl Sandberg, who built the META ad model into a free cash flow minting machine, has left? Well, it appears there's no one with the credibility in META's c-suite to stand up to the mad king and his potentially disastrous $100-plus billion boondoggle.But isn't Zuckerberg a visionary? A mad genius who turned a simple and what many thought was a stupid idea into a formerly $1.1 trillion company?Yes, but there's a fine line between genius and madness and Zuckerberg is potentially on the wrong side of it. Why?StatistaThe potential market for VR in general is about 100 million people today and that's expected to grow to about 130 million by 2027.META is struggling to grow its user base beyond its current 3 billion, because it's largely saturated its addressable market of Internet-0connected people around the world.Zuckerberg has a grand vision of a Meta, controlled Metaverse, a digital world in which we all wear VR goggles and live second lives online.EngadgetMeta's \"significantly higher losses\" in Reality Labs next year is due to launching the Quest Pro, a $1,500 VR headset that costs 5X more than the Quest 2 headset.META's timing on the Metaverse literally came at the worst possible time.the company pivoted to massive spending on new and untested tech that it admits might not make money for 10 years.just as the speculative tech bubble burstand now is launching a $1500 VR headset that costs more than an iPhone during a recessiontoday even Apple is starting to struggle with iPhone salesand the Quest Pro is much less useful or desirable than an iPhoneAnd I'm not the only one skeptical of Meta's giant pivot into a sci-fi future.FactSet Research TerminalReality Labs revenue was about $721 million in 2021 and growing at 9% annually in recent years.not exactly a thrilling level of growthThat grow rate isn't expected to improve until 2025, and even by 2027, when Metaverse revenue is expected to double, it's expected to total $2.8 billion, just over 1% of the company's sales.All while generating $20.3 billion in operating losses, by 2025.Reality Labs was founded in 2021, when Meta changed its name and its mission.$79.5 billion in cumulative operating losses through 2025with no signs of declining annual losses, much less profitsZuckerberg is either crazy or a genius, and so far all the evidence points to crazy.Potentially $180 to $200 billion in Metaverse losses by 2030 if they keep burning $20 billion after 2025But what if Zuckerberg is a Steve Jobs style genius? Jobs famously said that you often can't ask customers what they want in a product, because true innovation is so revolutionary they don't know they want it.If Ihadaskedpeople what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” - Henry FordHow many people were excited about the iPod when it was introduced in 2001? It was just a better, sleeker, and cooler MP3 player. And yet it transformed Apple into a cash flow machine.And then gave Steve Jobs the credibility and \"reality distortion field\" to change the world with the iPhone.In other words, truly revolutionary change requires a \"build it and they will come\" mindset. At least that's how Mark Zuckerberg is spinning his $200 billion bet.The difference between Zuckerberg and Henry Ford and Steve Jobs is that neither of them risked even a fraction of the money Zuckerberg is planning on.For what's objectively a very speculative bet.For every 10 mad geniuses trying to change the world with their inventions, nine of them fail. And none of them have ever had the resources or power of Mark Zuckerberg, the mad king of Facebook.It Wasn't All BadOur positive takeaways from Meta’s results were that the network effect remains intact given the firm’s encouraging user count and engagement metrics, which we think position Meta to accelerate revenue growth in late 2023, with the assumption that macro uncertainty eases.In addition, Reels is creating incremental engagement time per user and has also displayed early signs of high monetization potential. Plus, the firm continues to invest in enhancing its ad measurement capabilities while adding new advertising options for businesses, which we think will further drive a turnaround.\" - MorningstarMETA has been very badly hurt by Apple's change in private policy, which automatically blocks data tracking unless users specifically opt-in. Just 25% of iOS users have opted in and that number appears to be stable but not improving.StatistaiPhone has 55% market share in the US, the most lucrative digital ad market in the world. This means that with this single privacy policy change, social media companies saw their user data collapse by 42% and it might never be coming back.META, GOOG, and AMZN are the three giants of digital advertising, and each one is hurt to a different degree by this privacy policy change.META most of allGOOG less so because it has alternative data sources (more than 7 services with over 1 billion global users)AMZN least of all because its ad-algos are mostly running on its own proprietary dataFactSet Research TerminalMeta'suser baseis expected to grow slowly over time, but the 58 analysts that cover META (more than any other company on Wall Street) don't believe the Social Media king is dying.Average revenue per user is also expected to recover once the recession is over, though grow by just a modest 15% by 2025.Andfree cash flow, which has been cut in half in the last 12 months, is expected to nearly triple to $43 billion by 2027.And thanks to a much lower market cap,Meta's consensus buybacks of $93 billion from 2023 to 2027could buy back a lot of stock.34% of shares at current valuationsup to 10% of shares each yearAnd what about Meta's growth prospects after it gets past the 2023 recession and this painful pivot to the Metaverse?Investment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnMeta Platforms0%15.3%15.3%10.7%8.4%8.52.25Nasdaq0.8%11.5%12.3%8.6%6.3%11.41.85Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF3.6%8.5%12.1%8.4%6.2%11.71.82Dividend Aristocrats2.6%8.5%11.1%7.8%5.5%13.11.71Alphabet0.0%11.1%11.1%7.8%5.5%13.11.71S&P 5001.8%8.5%10.3%7.2%4.9%14.61.62(Sources: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Ycharts, Morningstar)Analysts remain bullish on META, far more so than Alphabet in fact, expecting META to potentially deliver 15.3% long-term returns while GOOG is expected to match the aristocrats and modestly beat the S&P over time.And that doesn't include valuation, and there's no question that at 4.9X cash adjusted trough 2023 earnings, META is trading at a fire sale price.Meta Is A Screaming Buy... If You Trust Zuckerberg's VisionMetricHistorical Fair Value Multiples (8-Years)2021202220232024202512-Month Forward Fair ValueEarnings26.84$369.59$224.38$224.38$286.92$364.22Average$369.59$224.38$224.38$286.92$364.22$224.38Current Price$94.82Discount To Fair Value74.34%57.74%57.74%66.95%73.97%57.74%Upside To Fair Value289.78%136.64%136.64%202.59%284.12%136.64%2022 EPS2023 EPS2022 Weighted EPS2023 Weighted EPS12-Month Forward EPS12-Month Average Fair Value Forward PECurrent Forward PECurrent Forward Cash-Adjusted PE$8.36$8.36$1.13$7.23$8.3626.811.34.9IF META does grow at 15% over time, then historically it's worth about 27X earnings and today it trades at 11.3, and just 4.9X cash-adjusted earnings.a bargain by even private equity standardsIts PEG ratio is 0.32, hyper-growth (potentially) at an absurdly wonderful price.Meta 2024 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)If META can grow as expected and return to market-determined fair value consistent with its expected growth rate, then within two years it could nearly triple, delivering 63% annual returns.about 6X more than the S&P 500Meta 2027 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)META has Amazon like return potential over the next five year, IF the turnaround is successful.326% consensus return potential through 202732% CAGRabout 7X more than the S&P 500Meta Investment Decision ToolDK(Source: Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool)(Source: Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool)META is as close to a perfectspeculativehyper-growth blue-chip opportunity as exists on Wall Street for anyone comfortable with its risk profile. Look at how it compares to the S&P 500.57% discount to fair value vs. 2% S&P = 55% better valuationalmost 50% better long-term annual return potentialabout 4X higher risk-adjusted expected returnsAlphabet: One Of The World's Best Growth Blue-Chips Is Doing Just FineBottom line up front, GOOG is a far safer and better run company than Meta.CompanyMeta PlatformsAlphabetMETA WinsGOOG WinsLT Growth Consensus15.3%11.1%1Total Return Potential15.3%11.1%1LT Risk-Adjusted Expected Return10.7%7.7%1Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Expected Return8.4%5.5%1Years To Double8.513.01Historical Total Return11.6%19.8%112-Month Consensus Total Return Potential68%40%112-Month Fundamentally Justified Total Return Potential137%47%15-Year Consensus Return Potential29% to 45%19% to 21%1Discount To Fair Value57%32%1Cash-Adjusted PE4.99.71DK RatingUltra Value BuyVery Strong Buy1Dividend King's Automatic Investment Decision Score100% A+ Excellent100% A+ Excellent11Quality Score84%97%1Safety Score100%100%11Dependability Score67%94%1S&P LT Risk Management Global Percentile63% Above-Average, Low Risk93% Exceptional (Very Low Risk)1Credit RatingAA- StableAA+ Stable130-Year Bankruptcy Risk0.55%0.29%1Return On Capital (12-Months)46%68%1Return On Capital Industry Percentile60%64%1Return On Capital (13-Year Median)95%74%1Return On Capital (5-Year trend)-16%-1.0%1Sum1411(Source: DK Zen Research Terminal)Meta is the better value, BUT only if you are comfortable with its speculative nature and risk profile.Mad king Mark is running the show and if he wants to run it straight into the ground you have no say in the matter.META's AA-stable credit rating is excellent, but GOOG's AA+ stable rating is slightly better, with just 0.29% 30-year bankruptcy risk according to S&P.META's 68th S&P long-term risk management percentile is above-average bordering on good, indicating low risk.But GOOG's 93rd percentile risk management is exceptional, indicating a very low risk, and you don't have to worry about a CEO king who for now looks to have lost his mind.GOOG's historical profitability is superior to META's, and its wide moat has been far more stable in recent years.Daily ShotAnd YouTube, the crown jewel in GOOG's social media crown, is far more popular with young people than Facebook or Instagram.FactSet Research TerminalAnd unlike META, which is 100% reliant on advertising, GOOG is a far more diversified company.its #4 in Cloud ComputingGOOG's \"other bets\" it's moonshot programs, are expected to have $2.8 billion in sales in 2027, just like Reality Labs. The only difference is that GOOG spends about $3.2 billion annually on other bets, and that part of the GOOG empire could be worth$50 billion.Or to put it another way, META is spending 4X as much money on Reality Labs as GOOG is on Other Bets, and GOOG plans to cut back on that spending in the next year. META plans to increase its spending by about 20%.GOOG has so far lost $27 billion on Other Bets, searching for its next world-beater business. META plans to potentially lose $200 billion or 8X as much, on Reality Labs, and for a business model that so far only 100 million people say they are interested in using.100 million global VR users, not META VR usersDaily ShotGOOG Cloud is a fast growing business. It's not yet profitable but is expected to become profitable in 2025, a year when META is expected to lose over $20 billion on Reality Labs.By 2027 analysts expect Google Cloud to be generating $76 billion in sales (vs $2.8 billion for Reality Labs) and converting that into $9.3 billion in operating income.In other words, Google Cloud is a 26% CAGR growing business that's expected to be minting money far faster than Reality Labs, assuming the Metaverse ever achieves profitability for META.IOT AnalyticsAnd unlike the Metaverse which is expected to have 130 million users (maybe) by 2027, cloud computing is a proven industry, growing at 15% per year and which could become a $2 trillion to $10 trillion industry by 2030.The global Metaverse revenue opportunity could approach $800 billion in 2024 vs. about $500 billion in 2020, based on our analysis and Newzoo, IDC, PWC, Statista and Two Circles data. The primary market for online game makers and gaming hardware may exceed $400 billion in 2024 while opportunities in live entertainment and social media make up the remainder.\" -BloombergNow in fairness to Mr. Zuckerberg and fans of the Metaverse, the Metaverse is already a $500 billion global market. But that's 80% gaming which META is getting only a small handful off.META's market share in the Metaverse is currently 1.6%In other words, with Alphabet the big growth driver is a 26% growing business in a bigger and proven model.GOOG's ability to generate meaningful cash flow from cloud is not speculative, just look at how AWS and Azure are minting money for AMZN and MSFT.And speaking of cash flow.FactSet Research TerminalWhile META's FCF is expected to get cut in half to $16 billion in 2022, GOOG's is expected to remain stable at $68 billion.In 2027 META is expected to generate a solid $43 billion in FCF. But GOOG is expected to generate $159 billion, the most in human corporate history.2027 FCF Consensus Forecasts:GOOG: $159 billionAAPL: $155 billionAMZN: $137 billionMSFT: $101 billionMETA: $43 billionAnd while META is expected to buy back a very healthy $93 billion in stock in the coming years, GOOG is expected to spend $365 billion between 2023 and 2027.In fact, in 2027 alone GOOG's consensus buybacks of $92 billion is as much as analysts expect META to spend over the next four years combined.Alphabet Valuation: Potentially A Very Strong Buy And Close To An Ultra Value BuyAlphabet reported disappointing third-quarter results as revenue growth decelerated further, driven by the stronger dollar and economic uncertainty, which is increasing hesitancy in ad spending. Assuming less uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, plus the monetization of YouTube Shorts, we expect advertising revenue growth to return to double-digit levels in 2023. Unlike advertising, the cloud business maintained impressive growth.\" - MorningstarGOOG's 9% plunge post-earnings was purely for cyclical reasons, nothing to do with its core business. Advertisers are pulling back due to the slowing economy and coming recession.Nothing about GOOG's fundamental core business is broken, unlike META which has chosen to make a $200 billion speculative pivot.GOOG is not a turnaround story (20% or less max risk cap rec)META is a turnaround story (2.5% or less max risk cap rec)YouTube Shorts has already reached 1.5 billion monthly active viewers, reducing fears that Tok-Tok is hurting the business. With the strong network effect present on YouTube, the strength of Google search, and the firm’s ad-tech powered measuring capabilities, Google’s ad revenue miss wasn’t significantly due to Apple privacy changes either.\" - MorningstarWhile META is struggling to compete with Tok-Tok (and losing for now), GOOG's YouTube is holding its own.And while META's user data feed was gutted by Apple's privacy change, GOOG was barely affected at all.GMAIL has almost 2 billion global users4.3 billion people use Google SearchGOOG has over seven services with over 1 billion users.This is how GOOG is able to replace that user data that META can't.And the more Google Cloud grows, the more data of all kinds it will have to improve its algorithms even faster.META has no plans for cloud computing, and no way to increase its user data feed, unless everyone buys into its Metaverse vision.the most passionate Metaverse advocates hate META with a passionthey view Zuckerberg's vision as a \"Ready Player One\" style dystopiaSo with GOOG you have a more diversified and better run business, with far better long-term risk-management according to S&P.You have a clear path to growth and far less execution risk than what META faces.And most of all, you don't have a single person who reigns over the company as a potentially mad god king who no one can stop from running into the ground, which is the largest risk to META today.Alphabet: A Wonderful Company At A Wonderful PriceMetricHistorical Fair Value Multiples (all years)2021202220232024202512-Month Forward Fair ValueEarnings25.79$144.68$122.76$138.75$163.25$196.26Average$144.68$122.76$138.75$163.25$196.26$136.60Current Price$92.11Discount To Fair Value36.34%24.97%33.61%43.58%53.07%32.57%Upside To Fair Value57.08%33.28%50.64%77.23%113.07%48.30%2022 EPS2023 EPS2022 Weighted EPS2023 Weighted EPS12-Month Forward PE12-Month Average Fair Value Forward PECurrent Forward PECurrent Forward Cash-Adjusted PE$4.76$5.38$0.64$4.66$5.3025.817.49.8GOOG has historically been valued by billions of investors at about 26X earnings, even when it was growing at 4%.Thus I'm confident that GOOG growing at 11% (those estimates might increase post-recession) is still worth about 26X earnings.Today GOOG trades at 17.4X earnings, but just 9.8X cash-adjusted earnings.a PEG of 0.88growth at a reasonable price, and in an AA-rated Ultra-SWAN quality 93rd percentile risk management packageAlphabet 2024 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)If GOOG grows as expected and returns to historical fair value, it could deliver 73% returns, or 29% CAGR.more than 2X greater than the S&P 500Alphabet 2027 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)If GOOG grows as expected through 2027 it could deliver 165% total returns, or 21% CAGR.Buffett-like returns from a blue-chip bargain hiding in plain sightabout 2.5X more than the S&P 50019% to 21% CAGR consensus return potential rangeGOOG Corp Investment Decision ToolDK(Source: Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool)GOOG is as close to a perfect growth blue-chip opportunity as exists on Wall Street for anyone comfortable with its risk profile. Look at how it compares to the S&P 500.32% discount to fair value vs. 2% S&P = 30% better valuation10% better long-term annual return potential (but with far better safety, quality, and risk-management)about 2X higher risk-adjusted expected returnsBottom Line: Both META And Alphabet Are Screaming Bargains But The Mad King Zuckerberg Makes GOOG The Smarter, Safer, And Less Speculative Buy TodayMETA has become cheap for a good reason, the speculative turnaround plan that CEO/King Zuckerberg has doubled down on.I'm personally skeptical that Reality Labs will pay off big, and expect that META will pivot and significantly reduce its spending plans on the Metaverse.That's why I still own the stock, though just a 1% position (2.5% OR LESS is the max recommended position size).In contrast, GOOG, while not as undervalued, is also a higher-quality, more diversified, and stronger company in terms of balance sheet and free cash flow generation.It's 93rd percentile risk management and AA+ stable credit rating are a testament to it being one of the greatest world-beaters in existence.And with its big growth plan being Google Cloud, a 26% growing business with a $2 trillion addressable market and clear path to profitability, I consider GOOG the safer, less speculative, and smarter investment today.Both META and GOOG could make you Buffett-like returns over the next five years, if they grow as expected. But with GOOG I'm a lot more confident that GOOG won't just meet growth forecasts, but potentially exceed them by a wide margin.With META? Well, it's ride or die with mad king Zuckerberg, and his Ford/Jobs like strategy of \"if you build it they will come.\" I join with all META shareholders in hoping that king Zuckerberg will spend a lot less than $180 billion on testing his theory and bringing his vision to life.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917084677,"gmtCreate":1665389207799,"gmtModify":1676537597659,"author":{"id":"4110264838576252","authorId":"4110264838576252","name":"YongYong9002","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b046cefb8de99036772b75cc6defb6be","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110264838576252","authorIdStr":"4110264838576252"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Summary of short ETF strategy&nbsp;","listText":"Summary of short ETF strategy&nbsp;","text":"Summary of short ETF strategy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917084677","repostId":"9052423933","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9052423933,"gmtCreate":1655205297175,"gmtModify":1676535582433,"author":{"id":"9000000000000419","authorId":"9000000000000419","name":"WallStreet_Tiger","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1fdbba25bcf5dea3f281241ba1320d10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000419","authorIdStr":"9000000000000419"},"themes":[],"title":"Time to Short For Profit?--All Markets and Industries Short ETFs","htmlText":"1、Why Need&nbsp;to&nbsp;Short&nbsp;?The market is more pessimistic about the general market expectations.The&nbsp;CPI has soared to 8.6%. CPI, PPI and other inflation indicators have broken through historical extremes, which is a huge uncertainty for the market.Continued upward inflation has put increasing pressure on the FED to raise interest rates, and the end rate expectation for the current round of rate hikes has risen from about 2.25% at the beginning of the year to the current 3.25% to 4.0%. And behind the interest rate hike, there are growing fears of a recession in the United States.According to statistics, there have been 19 times since the world&nbsp;war&nbsp;II when the S&amp;P 500 has fallen more than 15% at a time. Among them, the combination of economic downturn + Fed rate h","listText":"1、Why Need&nbsp;to&nbsp;Short&nbsp;?The market is more pessimistic about the general market expectations.The&nbsp;CPI has soared to 8.6%. CPI, PPI and other inflation indicators have broken through historical extremes, which is a huge uncertainty for the market.Continued upward inflation has put increasing pressure on the FED to raise interest rates, and the end rate expectation for the current round of rate hikes has risen from about 2.25% at the beginning of the year to the current 3.25% to 4.0%. And behind the interest rate hike, there are growing fears of a recession in the United States.According to statistics, there have been 19 times since the world&nbsp;war&nbsp;II when the S&amp;P 500 has fallen more than 15% at a time. Among them, the combination of economic downturn + Fed rate h","text":"1、Why Need to Short ?The market is more pessimistic about the general market expectations.The CPI has soared to 8.6%. CPI, PPI and other inflation indicators have broken through historical extremes, which is a huge uncertainty for the market.Continued upward inflation has put increasing pressure on the FED to raise interest rates, and the end rate expectation for the current round of rate hikes has risen from about 2.25% at the beginning of the year to the current 3.25% to 4.0%. And behind the interest rate hike, there are growing fears of a recession in the United States.According to statistics, there have been 19 times since the world war II when the S&P 500 has fallen more than 15% at a time. Among them, the combination of economic downturn + Fed rate h","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/48bcfb89e2c095e8e61fbfabac76d78a","width":"1024","height":"1024"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/370630362705e7239715eb2cc1cb8f52","width":"910","height":"628"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e76b0694e489c7fdbf8af3d179f43ff","width":"930","height":"865"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052423933","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074579018,"gmtCreate":1658380177934,"gmtModify":1676536150750,"author":{"id":"4110264838576252","authorId":"4110264838576252","name":"YongYong9002","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b046cefb8de99036772b75cc6defb6be","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110264838576252","authorIdStr":"4110264838576252"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article! I would like to share it.","listText":"Great article! I would like to share it.","text":"Great article! I would like to share it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074579018","repostId":"1198482191","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198482191","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658375462,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198482191?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-21 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Q2 Fair But Not Spectacular","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198482191","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryQ2 revenues in line while earnings beat on Bitcoin sales.Automotive margins were a little dis","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Q2 revenues in line while earnings beat on Bitcoin sales.</li><li>Automotive margins were a little disappointing.</li><li>Production ramp to continue nicely in back half of the year.</li></ul><p>After the bell on Wednesday, we received second quarter results from electric vehicle maker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which can be seen in this shareholder letter. We knew that overall results would be down sequentially from Q1 levels thanks to the Shanghai factory being shut down for a number of weeks. Investors were curious to see how this would impact profitability, especially when combined with two new factories ramping, and what this meant for the second half of 2022.</p><p>As I detailed in my earnings preview article, I wasn&#39;t going to be overly concerned with the headline numbers unless they were really out there one way or another. For the quarter, Tesla came in a little under $17 billion in revenue, right around what the street was expecting. I was a little light all around, except for leasing revenue that dropped sequentially. My guess is that I overestimated the stronger dollar impact here, plus it seems Tesla ramped solar and services a bit more than most expectations. Credit sales also came in higher than I was looking for, but still dropped significantly sequentially thanks to Q1&#39;s one-time benefit. In the graphic below, you can see the overall numbers against my three earnings cases. Dollar values are in millions except per share amounts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa1c563724b0f9eaf8f641f9c1a5b9e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Q2 Results (Author Estimates, Company Report)</p><p>While I was low on revenues, I also was low on the cost of goods sold. I thought Tesla would surprise a bit with margins as it recently has, but that was not the case here. GAAP automotive gross margins fell by 5 percentage points sequentially to 27.9%, falling 90 basis points shy of my estimate, while non-GAAP fell by 3.8 percentage points to 26.2%. Tesla&#39;s gross profit dollar figure came in above my base case but was still below my bull case. The company made nice improvements in energy and services margins as those segments saw revenues jump sequentially.</p><p>On the operating side, Tesla&#39;s expenses came in lower than my projections. Research and development costs dropped about $200 million sequentially, which seems a little odd given all the products the company is supposedly working on at the moment. The major difference here was that restructuring and other costs were $400 million less than I figured. The reason here is that Tesla converted most of its Bitcoin to fiat currency during Q2, so there wasn&#39;t a massive impairment charge that many were looking for. The Bitcoin sale was a surprise given Elon Musk&#39;s past comments about holding the cryptocurrency.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s non-GAAP EPS came in above all three of my cases, mainly driven by the Bitcoin sale and other income items, which can vary wildly from quarter to quarter. Again, I&#39;m not going to make too much of the $2.18 figure beating the $1.80 average street estimate for Q2, given the Bitcoin sale and a variety of other one-time items for the quarter. I&#39;m guessing analysts will call this a &#34;better than feared&#34; quarter, but it wasn&#39;t exactly a blockbuster that bulls can really rally around.</p><p>On the cash flow front, Tesla reported free cash flow of $621 million, a bit less than the just under $1 billion the street was looking for. Tesla&#39;s cash balance rose to more than $18 billion, helped a bit by the Bitcoin sale. The one item that worried me a bit is that despite the huge drop in production, accrued liabilities and accounts payable rose again. This meant that Tesla&#39;s days payable outstanding rose to 80 from 72 in Q1 and 71 at the end of June 2021, so the 80 figure represents the highest value since Tesla started disclosing this metric.</p><p>Cash flow numbers are certainly helped when you continue to stretch out payments to your suppliers. Critics also might say that the Bitcoin sale was due to Tesla being in a little bit of a cash crunch. Even though cash rose to a quarter-ending record, the company reported less interest income in Q2 than it did in Q1, and that&#39;s despite interest rates rising. For a company with over $18 billion in cash, a quarterly interest income figure of just $26 million seems rather low.</p><p>Perhaps the biggest update we got in the shareholder letter was with regard to production capacity. For the first time in a while, Tesla management updated the Shanghai number, which now exceeds 750,000 vehicles a year as the graphic below shows. The company is close to 2 million units per year of installed capacity, and current expectations call for deliveries of about 1.4 million units this year. Tesla continued its forecast for long-term growth of 50% per year but didn&#39;t give an explicit figure for this year in the letter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad4c881ae60c13cff4b7d44453ad349a\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Q2 Installed Annual Capacity (Q2 Earnings Report)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Q2 Fair But Not Spectacular</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Q2 Fair But Not Spectacular\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524590-tesla-q2-fair-but-not-spectacular?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryQ2 revenues in line while earnings beat on Bitcoin sales.Automotive margins were a little disappointing.Production ramp to continue nicely in back half of the year.After the bell on Wednesday, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524590-tesla-q2-fair-but-not-spectacular?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524590-tesla-q2-fair-but-not-spectacular?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198482191","content_text":"SummaryQ2 revenues in line while earnings beat on Bitcoin sales.Automotive margins were a little disappointing.Production ramp to continue nicely in back half of the year.After the bell on Wednesday, we received second quarter results from electric vehicle maker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which can be seen in this shareholder letter. We knew that overall results would be down sequentially from Q1 levels thanks to the Shanghai factory being shut down for a number of weeks. Investors were curious to see how this would impact profitability, especially when combined with two new factories ramping, and what this meant for the second half of 2022.As I detailed in my earnings preview article, I wasn't going to be overly concerned with the headline numbers unless they were really out there one way or another. For the quarter, Tesla came in a little under $17 billion in revenue, right around what the street was expecting. I was a little light all around, except for leasing revenue that dropped sequentially. My guess is that I overestimated the stronger dollar impact here, plus it seems Tesla ramped solar and services a bit more than most expectations. Credit sales also came in higher than I was looking for, but still dropped significantly sequentially thanks to Q1's one-time benefit. In the graphic below, you can see the overall numbers against my three earnings cases. Dollar values are in millions except per share amounts.Tesla Q2 Results (Author Estimates, Company Report)While I was low on revenues, I also was low on the cost of goods sold. I thought Tesla would surprise a bit with margins as it recently has, but that was not the case here. GAAP automotive gross margins fell by 5 percentage points sequentially to 27.9%, falling 90 basis points shy of my estimate, while non-GAAP fell by 3.8 percentage points to 26.2%. Tesla's gross profit dollar figure came in above my base case but was still below my bull case. The company made nice improvements in energy and services margins as those segments saw revenues jump sequentially.On the operating side, Tesla's expenses came in lower than my projections. Research and development costs dropped about $200 million sequentially, which seems a little odd given all the products the company is supposedly working on at the moment. The major difference here was that restructuring and other costs were $400 million less than I figured. The reason here is that Tesla converted most of its Bitcoin to fiat currency during Q2, so there wasn't a massive impairment charge that many were looking for. The Bitcoin sale was a surprise given Elon Musk's past comments about holding the cryptocurrency.Tesla's non-GAAP EPS came in above all three of my cases, mainly driven by the Bitcoin sale and other income items, which can vary wildly from quarter to quarter. Again, I'm not going to make too much of the $2.18 figure beating the $1.80 average street estimate for Q2, given the Bitcoin sale and a variety of other one-time items for the quarter. I'm guessing analysts will call this a \"better than feared\" quarter, but it wasn't exactly a blockbuster that bulls can really rally around.On the cash flow front, Tesla reported free cash flow of $621 million, a bit less than the just under $1 billion the street was looking for. Tesla's cash balance rose to more than $18 billion, helped a bit by the Bitcoin sale. The one item that worried me a bit is that despite the huge drop in production, accrued liabilities and accounts payable rose again. This meant that Tesla's days payable outstanding rose to 80 from 72 in Q1 and 71 at the end of June 2021, so the 80 figure represents the highest value since Tesla started disclosing this metric.Cash flow numbers are certainly helped when you continue to stretch out payments to your suppliers. Critics also might say that the Bitcoin sale was due to Tesla being in a little bit of a cash crunch. Even though cash rose to a quarter-ending record, the company reported less interest income in Q2 than it did in Q1, and that's despite interest rates rising. For a company with over $18 billion in cash, a quarterly interest income figure of just $26 million seems rather low.Perhaps the biggest update we got in the shareholder letter was with regard to production capacity. For the first time in a while, Tesla management updated the Shanghai number, which now exceeds 750,000 vehicles a year as the graphic below shows. The company is close to 2 million units per year of installed capacity, and current expectations call for deliveries of about 1.4 million units this year. Tesla continued its forecast for long-term growth of 50% per year but didn't give an explicit figure for this year in the letter.Q2 Installed Annual Capacity (Q2 Earnings Report)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074570705,"gmtCreate":1658380139107,"gmtModify":1676536150742,"author":{"id":"4110264838576252","authorId":"4110264838576252","name":"YongYong9002","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b046cefb8de99036772b75cc6defb6be","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110264838576252","authorIdStr":"4110264838576252"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article! I would like to share it.","listText":"Great article! I would like to share it.","text":"Great article! I would like to share it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074570705","repostId":"1198482191","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198482191","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658375462,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198482191?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-21 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Q2 Fair But Not Spectacular","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198482191","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryQ2 revenues in line while earnings beat on Bitcoin sales.Automotive margins were a little dis","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Q2 revenues in line while earnings beat on Bitcoin sales.</li><li>Automotive margins were a little disappointing.</li><li>Production ramp to continue nicely in back half of the year.</li></ul><p>After the bell on Wednesday, we received second quarter results from electric vehicle maker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which can be seen in this shareholder letter. We knew that overall results would be down sequentially from Q1 levels thanks to the Shanghai factory being shut down for a number of weeks. Investors were curious to see how this would impact profitability, especially when combined with two new factories ramping, and what this meant for the second half of 2022.</p><p>As I detailed in my earnings preview article, I wasn&#39;t going to be overly concerned with the headline numbers unless they were really out there one way or another. For the quarter, Tesla came in a little under $17 billion in revenue, right around what the street was expecting. I was a little light all around, except for leasing revenue that dropped sequentially. My guess is that I overestimated the stronger dollar impact here, plus it seems Tesla ramped solar and services a bit more than most expectations. Credit sales also came in higher than I was looking for, but still dropped significantly sequentially thanks to Q1&#39;s one-time benefit. In the graphic below, you can see the overall numbers against my three earnings cases. Dollar values are in millions except per share amounts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa1c563724b0f9eaf8f641f9c1a5b9e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Q2 Results (Author Estimates, Company Report)</p><p>While I was low on revenues, I also was low on the cost of goods sold. I thought Tesla would surprise a bit with margins as it recently has, but that was not the case here. GAAP automotive gross margins fell by 5 percentage points sequentially to 27.9%, falling 90 basis points shy of my estimate, while non-GAAP fell by 3.8 percentage points to 26.2%. Tesla&#39;s gross profit dollar figure came in above my base case but was still below my bull case. The company made nice improvements in energy and services margins as those segments saw revenues jump sequentially.</p><p>On the operating side, Tesla&#39;s expenses came in lower than my projections. Research and development costs dropped about $200 million sequentially, which seems a little odd given all the products the company is supposedly working on at the moment. The major difference here was that restructuring and other costs were $400 million less than I figured. The reason here is that Tesla converted most of its Bitcoin to fiat currency during Q2, so there wasn&#39;t a massive impairment charge that many were looking for. The Bitcoin sale was a surprise given Elon Musk&#39;s past comments about holding the cryptocurrency.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s non-GAAP EPS came in above all three of my cases, mainly driven by the Bitcoin sale and other income items, which can vary wildly from quarter to quarter. Again, I&#39;m not going to make too much of the $2.18 figure beating the $1.80 average street estimate for Q2, given the Bitcoin sale and a variety of other one-time items for the quarter. I&#39;m guessing analysts will call this a &#34;better than feared&#34; quarter, but it wasn&#39;t exactly a blockbuster that bulls can really rally around.</p><p>On the cash flow front, Tesla reported free cash flow of $621 million, a bit less than the just under $1 billion the street was looking for. Tesla&#39;s cash balance rose to more than $18 billion, helped a bit by the Bitcoin sale. The one item that worried me a bit is that despite the huge drop in production, accrued liabilities and accounts payable rose again. This meant that Tesla&#39;s days payable outstanding rose to 80 from 72 in Q1 and 71 at the end of June 2021, so the 80 figure represents the highest value since Tesla started disclosing this metric.</p><p>Cash flow numbers are certainly helped when you continue to stretch out payments to your suppliers. Critics also might say that the Bitcoin sale was due to Tesla being in a little bit of a cash crunch. Even though cash rose to a quarter-ending record, the company reported less interest income in Q2 than it did in Q1, and that&#39;s despite interest rates rising. For a company with over $18 billion in cash, a quarterly interest income figure of just $26 million seems rather low.</p><p>Perhaps the biggest update we got in the shareholder letter was with regard to production capacity. For the first time in a while, Tesla management updated the Shanghai number, which now exceeds 750,000 vehicles a year as the graphic below shows. The company is close to 2 million units per year of installed capacity, and current expectations call for deliveries of about 1.4 million units this year. Tesla continued its forecast for long-term growth of 50% per year but didn&#39;t give an explicit figure for this year in the letter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad4c881ae60c13cff4b7d44453ad349a\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Q2 Installed Annual Capacity (Q2 Earnings Report)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Q2 Fair But Not Spectacular</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Q2 Fair But Not Spectacular\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524590-tesla-q2-fair-but-not-spectacular?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryQ2 revenues in line while earnings beat on Bitcoin sales.Automotive margins were a little disappointing.Production ramp to continue nicely in back half of the year.After the bell on Wednesday, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524590-tesla-q2-fair-but-not-spectacular?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524590-tesla-q2-fair-but-not-spectacular?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198482191","content_text":"SummaryQ2 revenues in line while earnings beat on Bitcoin sales.Automotive margins were a little disappointing.Production ramp to continue nicely in back half of the year.After the bell on Wednesday, we received second quarter results from electric vehicle maker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which can be seen in this shareholder letter. We knew that overall results would be down sequentially from Q1 levels thanks to the Shanghai factory being shut down for a number of weeks. Investors were curious to see how this would impact profitability, especially when combined with two new factories ramping, and what this meant for the second half of 2022.As I detailed in my earnings preview article, I wasn't going to be overly concerned with the headline numbers unless they were really out there one way or another. For the quarter, Tesla came in a little under $17 billion in revenue, right around what the street was expecting. I was a little light all around, except for leasing revenue that dropped sequentially. My guess is that I overestimated the stronger dollar impact here, plus it seems Tesla ramped solar and services a bit more than most expectations. Credit sales also came in higher than I was looking for, but still dropped significantly sequentially thanks to Q1's one-time benefit. In the graphic below, you can see the overall numbers against my three earnings cases. Dollar values are in millions except per share amounts.Tesla Q2 Results (Author Estimates, Company Report)While I was low on revenues, I also was low on the cost of goods sold. I thought Tesla would surprise a bit with margins as it recently has, but that was not the case here. GAAP automotive gross margins fell by 5 percentage points sequentially to 27.9%, falling 90 basis points shy of my estimate, while non-GAAP fell by 3.8 percentage points to 26.2%. Tesla's gross profit dollar figure came in above my base case but was still below my bull case. The company made nice improvements in energy and services margins as those segments saw revenues jump sequentially.On the operating side, Tesla's expenses came in lower than my projections. Research and development costs dropped about $200 million sequentially, which seems a little odd given all the products the company is supposedly working on at the moment. The major difference here was that restructuring and other costs were $400 million less than I figured. The reason here is that Tesla converted most of its Bitcoin to fiat currency during Q2, so there wasn't a massive impairment charge that many were looking for. The Bitcoin sale was a surprise given Elon Musk's past comments about holding the cryptocurrency.Tesla's non-GAAP EPS came in above all three of my cases, mainly driven by the Bitcoin sale and other income items, which can vary wildly from quarter to quarter. Again, I'm not going to make too much of the $2.18 figure beating the $1.80 average street estimate for Q2, given the Bitcoin sale and a variety of other one-time items for the quarter. I'm guessing analysts will call this a \"better than feared\" quarter, but it wasn't exactly a blockbuster that bulls can really rally around.On the cash flow front, Tesla reported free cash flow of $621 million, a bit less than the just under $1 billion the street was looking for. Tesla's cash balance rose to more than $18 billion, helped a bit by the Bitcoin sale. The one item that worried me a bit is that despite the huge drop in production, accrued liabilities and accounts payable rose again. This meant that Tesla's days payable outstanding rose to 80 from 72 in Q1 and 71 at the end of June 2021, so the 80 figure represents the highest value since Tesla started disclosing this metric.Cash flow numbers are certainly helped when you continue to stretch out payments to your suppliers. Critics also might say that the Bitcoin sale was due to Tesla being in a little bit of a cash crunch. Even though cash rose to a quarter-ending record, the company reported less interest income in Q2 than it did in Q1, and that's despite interest rates rising. For a company with over $18 billion in cash, a quarterly interest income figure of just $26 million seems rather low.Perhaps the biggest update we got in the shareholder letter was with regard to production capacity. For the first time in a while, Tesla management updated the Shanghai number, which now exceeds 750,000 vehicles a year as the graphic below shows. The company is close to 2 million units per year of installed capacity, and current expectations call for deliveries of about 1.4 million units this year. Tesla continued its forecast for long-term growth of 50% per year but didn't give an explicit figure for this year in the letter.Q2 Installed Annual Capacity (Q2 Earnings Report)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035957704,"gmtCreate":1647493070403,"gmtModify":1676534237380,"author":{"id":"4110264838576252","authorId":"4110264838576252","name":"YongYong9002","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b046cefb8de99036772b75cc6defb6be","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110264838576252","authorIdStr":"4110264838576252"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035957704","repostId":"2219768133","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2219768133","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647481149,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2219768133?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-17 09:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Growth Stocks You Won't Regret Buying in This Market Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2219768133","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Their share prices are beaten down, but their underlying businesses are strong.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>No one likes to make a bad decision. Studies have found that the pain of losing is much more intense than the pleasure associated with winning. This aversion to risk could cause you to be afraid of buying any stocks at all during the current market downturn.</p><p>However, history shows that investing in times like these often pay off handsomely over the long run. Here are three growth stocks you won&#39;t regret buying in this market correction.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6c60ed63ce5f3575aca7b16e0af5abb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>1. Teladoc Health</h2><p><b>Teladoc Health</b> (NYSE:TDOC) began falling a lot sooner than the overall stock market did. The stock is down more than 70% from its high in early 2021. Investors have been worried that growth would slow for the virtual care provider as COVID-19 concerns wane.</p><p>However, I think the view that Teladoc&#39;s fortunes are tied to COVID-19 is one of several major misconceptions about the company. Actually, Teladoc&#39;s revenue and its revenue per member increased last year despite the reopening of the U.S. economy.</p><p>Teladoc estimates that it has a $75 billion opportunity within its existing membership base, largely through promoting the use of multiple products. Its total addressable market including reaching additional customers is much larger -- more than $260 billion in the U.S. alone.</p><p>Virtual care offers cost savings for payers and convenience for patients. Teladoc stands as the leader in the industry with its breadth of services and large customer base. With a market cap of around $8 billion, this stock appears to be dirt cheap in light of its tremendous growth opportunities.</p><h2>2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MELI\">MercadoLibre</a></h2><p><b>MercadoLibre</b> (NASDAQ:MELI) is another one-time high-flying stock that has had its wings clipped. Its shares have fallen more than 50% since September 2021.</p><p>Was MercadoLibre&#39;s steep decline warranted? Not really. The company continues to rack up impressive numbers. It reported a blockbuster fourth quarter with strong growth across the board.</p><p>It&#39;s easy for investors to only view MercadoLibre as a Latin American e-commerce powerhouse. The company certainly qualifies as one. And it has massive growth potential in the region, with an e-commerce penetration rate of only 9% in 2021.</p><p>However, MercadoLibre is also a fintech powerhouse in Latin America. The company&#39;s fintech revenue increased even faster in Q4 than its e-commerce revenue. Don&#39;t be surprised if MercadoLibre actually makes more money from fintech than it does from e-commerce within the next few years.</p><p>Like Teladoc, MercadoLibre&#39;s valuation looks attractive based on its growth prospects. The company&#39;s market cap is under $45 billion. I think it could easily be worth several times more by the end of the decade.</p><h2>3. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> Holdings</h2><p><b>PayPal Holdings</b> (NASDAQ:PYPL) ranks as one of the biggest fintech stocks around. However, it&#39;s a lot smaller now than it was a few months ago. PayPal&#39;s shares have plunged nearly 70% since mid-2021.</p><p>The primary concern about PayPal is that its user growth is slowing. PayPal even retracted its goal of reaching 750 million accounts. But don&#39;t think for a second that the company is a lost cause. Instead, PayPal looks like a great stock to buy right now.</p><p>Importantly, PayPal hasn&#39;t changed its overall revenue, earnings, and free cash flow growth targets. The company is simply changing its focus to increasing revenue per user rather than adding a greater number of customers who aren&#39;t as profitable.</p><p>Also, the long-term tailwinds for PayPal aren&#39;t subsiding at all. The shift from cash to digital payments for both online and in-store purchases continues full steam ahead. PayPal remains the most widely accepted digital wallet in the world by far. When the stock market rebounds -- and it will (sooner or later) -- PayPal&#39;s shares should return to their winning ways.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Growth Stocks You Won't Regret Buying in This Market Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Growth Stocks You Won't Regret Buying in This Market Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-17 09:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/16/3-growth-stocks-you-wont-regret-buying-in-this-mar/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>No one likes to make a bad decision. Studies have found that the pain of losing is much more intense than the pleasure associated with winning. This aversion to risk could cause you to be afraid of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/16/3-growth-stocks-you-wont-regret-buying-in-this-mar/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","MELI":"MercadoLibre","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","PYPL":"PayPal","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4167":"医疗保健技术","BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/16/3-growth-stocks-you-wont-regret-buying-in-this-mar/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2219768133","content_text":"No one likes to make a bad decision. Studies have found that the pain of losing is much more intense than the pleasure associated with winning. This aversion to risk could cause you to be afraid of buying any stocks at all during the current market downturn.However, history shows that investing in times like these often pay off handsomely over the long run. Here are three growth stocks you won't regret buying in this market correction.Image source: Getty Images.1. Teladoc HealthTeladoc Health (NYSE:TDOC) began falling a lot sooner than the overall stock market did. The stock is down more than 70% from its high in early 2021. Investors have been worried that growth would slow for the virtual care provider as COVID-19 concerns wane.However, I think the view that Teladoc's fortunes are tied to COVID-19 is one of several major misconceptions about the company. Actually, Teladoc's revenue and its revenue per member increased last year despite the reopening of the U.S. economy.Teladoc estimates that it has a $75 billion opportunity within its existing membership base, largely through promoting the use of multiple products. Its total addressable market including reaching additional customers is much larger -- more than $260 billion in the U.S. alone.Virtual care offers cost savings for payers and convenience for patients. Teladoc stands as the leader in the industry with its breadth of services and large customer base. With a market cap of around $8 billion, this stock appears to be dirt cheap in light of its tremendous growth opportunities.2. MercadoLibreMercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) is another one-time high-flying stock that has had its wings clipped. Its shares have fallen more than 50% since September 2021.Was MercadoLibre's steep decline warranted? Not really. The company continues to rack up impressive numbers. It reported a blockbuster fourth quarter with strong growth across the board.It's easy for investors to only view MercadoLibre as a Latin American e-commerce powerhouse. The company certainly qualifies as one. And it has massive growth potential in the region, with an e-commerce penetration rate of only 9% in 2021.However, MercadoLibre is also a fintech powerhouse in Latin America. The company's fintech revenue increased even faster in Q4 than its e-commerce revenue. Don't be surprised if MercadoLibre actually makes more money from fintech than it does from e-commerce within the next few years.Like Teladoc, MercadoLibre's valuation looks attractive based on its growth prospects. The company's market cap is under $45 billion. I think it could easily be worth several times more by the end of the decade.3. PayPal HoldingsPayPal Holdings (NASDAQ:PYPL) ranks as one of the biggest fintech stocks around. However, it's a lot smaller now than it was a few months ago. PayPal's shares have plunged nearly 70% since mid-2021.The primary concern about PayPal is that its user growth is slowing. PayPal even retracted its goal of reaching 750 million accounts. But don't think for a second that the company is a lost cause. Instead, PayPal looks like a great stock to buy right now.Importantly, PayPal hasn't changed its overall revenue, earnings, and free cash flow growth targets. The company is simply changing its focus to increasing revenue per user rather than adding a greater number of customers who aren't as profitable.Also, the long-term tailwinds for PayPal aren't subsiding at all. The shift from cash to digital payments for both online and in-store purchases continues full steam ahead. PayPal remains the most widely accepted digital wallet in the world by far. When the stock market rebounds -- and it will (sooner or later) -- PayPal's shares should return to their winning ways.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032544142,"gmtCreate":1647409949180,"gmtModify":1676534226505,"author":{"id":"4110264838576252","authorId":"4110264838576252","name":"YongYong9002","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b046cefb8de99036772b75cc6defb6be","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4110264838576252","authorIdStr":"4110264838576252"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032544142","repostId":"2219340567","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}