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FNMY
FNMY
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05-31
I guess everyone is going to buy into Nvdia. buy calls at 115!
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FNMY
FNMY
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2024-10-02
$SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF(SPYD)$
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FNMY
FNMY
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2022-11-18
$Boeing(BA)$
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FNMY
FNMY
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2022-11-18
$Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$
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FNMY
FNMY
·
2022-11-18
Ok
Bullard Sets Tone for Fed Officials Signaling Hikes Will Roll On
Borrowing costs should be high enough to curb inflationTightening has had limited effect on prices s
Bullard Sets Tone for Fed Officials Signaling Hikes Will Roll On
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FNMY
FNMY
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2022-09-24
$Occidental(OXY)$
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FNMY
FNMY
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2022-09-15
$Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$
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FNMY
FNMY
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2022-08-25
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VTI: Passive Investors Face A Lost Decade
SummaryThe VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better of
VTI: Passive Investors Face A Lost Decade
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FNMY
FNMY
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2022-08-23
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3 Things You Should Know About the Tesla Stock Split
Tesla's stock split will take place after close of trading on Aug. 24. How will that impact your portfolio and taxes?
3 Things You Should Know About the Tesla Stock Split
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FNMY
FNMY
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2022-08-19
Ok
2 Top Stocks to Buy During a Bear Market (And It's Not Even Close)
A bear market also brings about good buying opportunities, provided you choose wisely.
2 Top Stocks to Buy During a Bear Market (And It's Not Even Close)
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}\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBullard Sets Tone for Fed Officials Signaling Hikes Will Roll On\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-18 09:57 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/fed-s-bullard-says-more-hikes-needed-to-get-to-restrictive-level><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Borrowing costs should be high enough to curb inflationTightening has had limited effect on prices so far, he saysSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policymakers should raise interest rates to...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/fed-s-bullard-says-more-hikes-needed-to-get-to-restrictive-level\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/fed-s-bullard-says-more-hikes-needed-to-get-to-restrictive-level","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103280772","content_text":"Borrowing costs should be high enough to curb inflationTightening has had limited effect on prices so far, he saysSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policymakers should raise interest rates to at least 5% to 5.25%, hitting financial markets as investors recalibrated bets on how high officials would go.“In the past I have said 4.75% to 5%,” he told reporters Thursday after giving a speech in Louisville, Kentucky. “Based on this analysis today, I would say 5% to 5.25%. That’s a minimum level. According to this analysis, that would at least get us in the zone.”Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that rates will need to rise more than previously expected due to disappointing inflation data, while suggesting that officials could moderate the size of their increases going forward. A key reading on consumer prices since then was better than expected but policymakers continue to stress the need to keep raising rates.Officials in September had projected rates rising to around 4.6% next year from a current target range of 3.75% to 4%. Those projections will be updated at the Fed’s Dec. 13-14 meeting.US 10-year Treasury yields climbed after Bullard became the latest official to say that interest rates had further to rise to curb the strongest inflation in 40 years.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Wednesday that “somewhere between 4.75 and 5.25 seems a reasonable place to think about” for the level that officials should raise rates to then go on hold.Bullard’s hawkish tone was echoed later on Thursday by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, whosaidit’s an “open question” how far the central bank has to go with rates to bring demand back into balance.“I need to be convinced that inflation has at least stopped climbing, that we’re not falling further behind the curve before I would advocate stopping a progression of future rate hikes, so we’re not there yet,” he told the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce’s 2022 Economic Summit.“The Fed is still maintaining a outward appearance of hawkishness pending another month of inflation data,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. “One month of lower inflation doesn’t mean the war is over.”Data last week showed consumer inflation rising by a less-than-expected 7.7% in the 12 months through October. November’s reading will be released on Dec. 13, before officials begin their two days of policy deliberations.During his presentation, Bullard showed charts that indicated rates will need to be between about 5% to 7% to meet policymakers’ goal of being “sufficiently restrictive” to curb inflation near a four-decade high.The calculation used different versions of a Taylor Rule, a popular monetary policy guideline developed by Stanford University’s John Taylor.‘Minimal’ Level“It’s easy to make arguments that before this is all over you’d have to go to much higher levels of the policy rate” than 5.25%, said Bullard, who votes on policy this year. “But for now I’d be happy to get to the minimal level and that’s why I think the committee is going to have to do more.”The St. Louis Fed leader, who has been among the more hawkish policymakers this year, was the latest central banker to call for additional action.The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Nov. 2 for the fourth straight time as part of its most aggressive tightening since the 1980s to curb an inflation that started in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic disruptions.Bullard didn’t say whether he would favor a 50 or 75 basis-point move at the Fed’s December meeting, telling reporters that he would look to Powell to set the direction.A number of his colleagues have called for a downshift in the size of the next rate increase following last week’s consumer price report, which showed a softening in core consumer goods inflation in October.Investors expect the Fed will raise rates by a half percentage point next month and see rates peaking around 5% next year.The St. Louis Fed president said he expected officials to keep rates high for an extended period to avoid the kind of monetary policy mistakes of the 1970s that resulted in persistently high inflation.“We certainly don’t want to replay that episode,” he told reporters. “So we’re going to have to see very tangible evidence that inflation’s coming down meaningfully toward target, and I think we’re going to want to err on the side of staying higher for longer in order to get that to happen.”Bullard said while he expected inflation to come down next year, there’s been relatively little evidence of that so far.“Thus far, the change in the monetary-policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023,” Bullard said in his prepared remarks, adding rate hikes so far have caused little financial 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OXY\">$Occidental(OXY)$</a>","text":"$Occidental(OXY)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b7833a20f5a72a81dc4c1d9f8dc16fee","width":"1080","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913233517","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934960447,"gmtCreate":1663185247989,"gmtModify":1676537220573,"author":{"id":"4115693528173732","authorId":"4115693528173732","name":"FNMY","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/352adbcac591de817917c49023219125","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115693528173732","idStr":"4115693528173732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CHWY\">$Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CHWY\">$Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$</a>","text":"$Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b52faac699ddbbb12bf7408ec9b8079c","width":"1080","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934960447","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995368076,"gmtCreate":1661411759997,"gmtModify":1676536514093,"author":{"id":"4115693528173732","authorId":"4115693528173732","name":"FNMY","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/352adbcac591de817917c49023219125","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115693528173732","idStr":"4115693528173732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995368076","repostId":"1175427057","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175427057","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661410598,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175427057?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-25 14:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"VTI: Passive Investors Face A Lost Decade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175427057","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better of","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better off in real terms by the year 2032.</li><li>Historically, investors who bought U.S. stocks at similar PE valuations as the VTI currently could expect to see long-term real returns of around 2-3% annually.</li><li>However, profit margin mean reversion and weaker real GDP growth suggest that future returns will be far lower than this.</li><li>The good news is that passive investors do not have to settle for such meager returns as there are several overseas markets that offer much stronger prospects.</li></ul><p>I last wrote about the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA:VTI) back in May 2021 when I argued that the market was in a '3-sigma' bubble and that rising inflation threatened to be the pin to burst it (<i>see ‘VTI: Rising Inflation May Burst This 3-Sigma Bubble’)</i>. While the VTI went on to rise a further 13% to its December peak, it has since given back all its gains, including the impact of dividend payments. It may pain passive investors to learn that even after the recent decline the VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better off in real terms by the year 2032 and subjecting them to significant volatility in the coming years.</p><p><b>The VTI ETF</b></p><p>The VTI tracks the performance of the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index which measures the total investable U.S. equities market. While the ETF has a similar composition as the SPY, it also included small- and mid-cap companies, and the underlying index has a larger market capitalization of USD44trn versus the S&P500’s USD36trn. The VTI trades at even more extreme valuations relative to the S&P500, while paying an even lower dividend yield.</p><p>The VTI is a popular ETF among buy-and-hold investors as it captures the entire U.S. market and charges an expense ratio of just 0.03% per year. The VTI is a favored market for followers of the Jack Bogle philosophy that 'time in the market beats timing the market'. While this is a good rule of thumb to invest by for most people most of the time, it does not tell the full story. There appears to be a large gap between the returns that passive investors expect to achieve over the long term and the returns that are likely based on current valuations. For those disciplined investors who are committed to dollar cost averaging as stock valuations fall, this may not be a problem, but this is easier said than done. There is an overwhelming urge to sell during bear markets as the red ink piles up, and this is particularly the case if stock weakness occurs amid economic weakness and job security declines.</p><p><b>Valuations Are Still Extreme</b></p><p>The VTI's valuations have fallen somewhat since last year's peak, driven by a fall in equity prices and a rise in earnings. The trailing PE ratio now sits at 22x. The forward PE ratio (based on expectations of earnings over the next 12 months) sits at 18.9x, which may seem reasonable, particularly relative to the 2020 peak of 29.9x. Historically, investors who bought U.S. stocks at similar PE valuations could expect to see long-term real returns of around 2-3% annually. Considering the long-term average is around 6%, this is already low, but there are two reasons that suggests future returns are likely to be much lower than this, and quite likely negative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c3ab64632e1f5546b71c5bf8e134e5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US Stocks: PE Ratio Vs Future 10-Year Annual Returns(Robert Shiller)</p><p><b>Profit Margins Are Unsustainably High:</b> I have written a number of articles about how unsustainably high U.S. profit margins are and how structural economic forces are likely to drive them lower over the long term (<i>see ‘SPX: Expect A Bear Market In Profit Margins’</i>). The current profit margin on the VTI is 10.2% which is significantly above its 10-year average of 8.5%. While data for the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index only goes back 10 years, data for the economy as a whole goes back to the 1940s and shows that profit margins are 60% above their long-term average. I fully expect to see profit margins revert to their long-term mean of 7% over the next decade, which would act as a 4-5% annual drag on equity prices assuming no change in the PE ratio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e0762399bd27a508aa286b12931511f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US Corporate Earnings, % of GDP(Bloomberg)</p><p><b>Real GDP Growth Will Be Much Lower:</b> Additionally, the 2-3% real returns that have been historically associated with current valuations have been supported by strong real GDP growth, which has averaged over 3%. Such growth rates will be extremely difficult to achieve going forward simply based on slowing population growth, with the working-age population no longer growing at all. When we add in the impact of weaker productivity growth as explained in ‘Brace For Sub-1% Long-Term Growth’, we will be lucky to achieve 1% growth over the next decade.</p><p>Taken together, an elevated PE ratio, unsustainably high profit margins, and a weak real GDP growth outlook suggest that the VTI should be expected to post negative returns over the next decade after taking into account inflation.</p><p><b>There Are Many Alternatives With Higher Return Prospects</b></p><p>The good news is that passive investors do not have to settle for such meagre returns as there are several overseas markets that offer much stronger prospects. As value investors GMO noted in their recent 7-year Asset Class Forecast, emerging market value stocks are now prices to return over 8% in real terms over the next 7 years. If emerging market stocks seem too risky, a long position here can be combined with U.S. Treasuries, which would help to reduce volatility and the risk of a large drawdown, while still providing returns far higher than the VTI. The U.S 10-year Treasury not only offers a higher yield than investors can expect to receive in the VTI, but it also comes with a track record of performing well during equity market weakness. This is likely to come in handy in preventing the urge to panic during any major equity market selloff.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9328cf20ef5b79bb94b886f0312a71d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>7-Year Real Asset Class Forecasts(GMO)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>VTI: Passive Investors Face A Lost Decade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVTI: Passive Investors Face A Lost Decade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-25 14:56 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536581-vti-etf-likely-underperform-inflation-over-next-decade><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better off in real terms by the year 2032.Historically, investors who bought U.S. stocks at similar PE ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536581-vti-etf-likely-underperform-inflation-over-next-decade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536581-vti-etf-likely-underperform-inflation-over-next-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175427057","content_text":"SummaryThe VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better off in real terms by the year 2032.Historically, investors who bought U.S. stocks at similar PE valuations as the VTI currently could expect to see long-term real returns of around 2-3% annually.However, profit margin mean reversion and weaker real GDP growth suggest that future returns will be far lower than this.The good news is that passive investors do not have to settle for such meager returns as there are several overseas markets that offer much stronger prospects.I last wrote about the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA:VTI) back in May 2021 when I argued that the market was in a '3-sigma' bubble and that rising inflation threatened to be the pin to burst it (see ‘VTI: Rising Inflation May Burst This 3-Sigma Bubble’). While the VTI went on to rise a further 13% to its December peak, it has since given back all its gains, including the impact of dividend payments. It may pain passive investors to learn that even after the recent decline the VTI is likely to underperform inflation over the next decade leaving holders no better off in real terms by the year 2032 and subjecting them to significant volatility in the coming years.The VTI ETFThe VTI tracks the performance of the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index which measures the total investable U.S. equities market. While the ETF has a similar composition as the SPY, it also included small- and mid-cap companies, and the underlying index has a larger market capitalization of USD44trn versus the S&P500’s USD36trn. The VTI trades at even more extreme valuations relative to the S&P500, while paying an even lower dividend yield.The VTI is a popular ETF among buy-and-hold investors as it captures the entire U.S. market and charges an expense ratio of just 0.03% per year. The VTI is a favored market for followers of the Jack Bogle philosophy that 'time in the market beats timing the market'. While this is a good rule of thumb to invest by for most people most of the time, it does not tell the full story. There appears to be a large gap between the returns that passive investors expect to achieve over the long term and the returns that are likely based on current valuations. For those disciplined investors who are committed to dollar cost averaging as stock valuations fall, this may not be a problem, but this is easier said than done. There is an overwhelming urge to sell during bear markets as the red ink piles up, and this is particularly the case if stock weakness occurs amid economic weakness and job security declines.Valuations Are Still ExtremeThe VTI's valuations have fallen somewhat since last year's peak, driven by a fall in equity prices and a rise in earnings. The trailing PE ratio now sits at 22x. The forward PE ratio (based on expectations of earnings over the next 12 months) sits at 18.9x, which may seem reasonable, particularly relative to the 2020 peak of 29.9x. Historically, investors who bought U.S. stocks at similar PE valuations could expect to see long-term real returns of around 2-3% annually. Considering the long-term average is around 6%, this is already low, but there are two reasons that suggests future returns are likely to be much lower than this, and quite likely negative.US Stocks: PE Ratio Vs Future 10-Year Annual Returns(Robert Shiller)Profit Margins Are Unsustainably High: I have written a number of articles about how unsustainably high U.S. profit margins are and how structural economic forces are likely to drive them lower over the long term (see ‘SPX: Expect A Bear Market In Profit Margins’). The current profit margin on the VTI is 10.2% which is significantly above its 10-year average of 8.5%. While data for the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index only goes back 10 years, data for the economy as a whole goes back to the 1940s and shows that profit margins are 60% above their long-term average. I fully expect to see profit margins revert to their long-term mean of 7% over the next decade, which would act as a 4-5% annual drag on equity prices assuming no change in the PE ratio.US Corporate Earnings, % of GDP(Bloomberg)Real GDP Growth Will Be Much Lower: Additionally, the 2-3% real returns that have been historically associated with current valuations have been supported by strong real GDP growth, which has averaged over 3%. Such growth rates will be extremely difficult to achieve going forward simply based on slowing population growth, with the working-age population no longer growing at all. When we add in the impact of weaker productivity growth as explained in ‘Brace For Sub-1% Long-Term Growth’, we will be lucky to achieve 1% growth over the next decade.Taken together, an elevated PE ratio, unsustainably high profit margins, and a weak real GDP growth outlook suggest that the VTI should be expected to post negative returns over the next decade after taking into account inflation.There Are Many Alternatives With Higher Return ProspectsThe good news is that passive investors do not have to settle for such meagre returns as there are several overseas markets that offer much stronger prospects. As value investors GMO noted in their recent 7-year Asset Class Forecast, emerging market value stocks are now prices to return over 8% in real terms over the next 7 years. If emerging market stocks seem too risky, a long position here can be combined with U.S. Treasuries, which would help to reduce volatility and the risk of a large drawdown, while still providing returns far higher than the VTI. The U.S 10-year Treasury not only offers a higher yield than investors can expect to receive in the VTI, but it also comes with a track record of performing well during equity market weakness. This is likely to come in handy in preventing the urge to panic during any major equity market selloff.7-Year Real Asset Class Forecasts(GMO)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VTI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992377115,"gmtCreate":1661269989539,"gmtModify":1676536486702,"author":{"id":"4115693528173732","authorId":"4115693528173732","name":"FNMY","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/352adbcac591de817917c49023219125","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115693528173732","idStr":"4115693528173732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992377115","repostId":"2261819523","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2261819523","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1661263959,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2261819523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-23 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Things You Should Know About the Tesla Stock Split","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2261819523","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tesla's stock split will take place after close of trading on Aug. 24. How will that impact your portfolio and taxes?","content":"<div>\n<p>Tesla's 3-for-1 stock split proposal won shareholder approval at the 2022 annual shareholders' meeting this month. Now, the electric vehicle maker is gearing up for its second stock split after close ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/22/3-things-you-should-know-about-the-tesla-stock-spl/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Things You Should Know About the Tesla Stock Split</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Things You Should Know About the Tesla Stock Split\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-23 22:12 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/22/3-things-you-should-know-about-the-tesla-stock-spl/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla's 3-for-1 stock split proposal won shareholder approval at the 2022 annual shareholders' meeting this month. Now, the electric vehicle maker is gearing up for its second stock split after close ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/22/3-things-you-should-know-about-the-tesla-stock-spl/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/22/3-things-you-should-know-about-the-tesla-stock-spl/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2261819523","content_text":"Tesla's 3-for-1 stock split proposal won shareholder approval at the 2022 annual shareholders' meeting this month. Now, the electric vehicle maker is gearing up for its second stock split after close of trading on Aug. 24. Shareholders of record on Aug. 17 will receive a stock dividend of two extra shares for every one share they currently own.If you've been wondering how stock splits work and what will happen to your Tesla shares, here are three quick items to jot down.Image source: Getty Images.1. You'll have more Tesla shares after the stock splitA stock split increases the number of shares outstanding, giving investors more shares in their account for every one share they previously owned.After a stock split, the value of each share will be reduced to a lower price. This makes it easy for more retail investors to get their hands on a whole share of stock, because the stock price appears more affordable. If you're already an investor, your shares will be split into bite-sized pieces, but the total value of your shares will not increase.Let's say you have one share of Tesla's stock. On the day of the 3-for-1 stock split, the company will grant you two additional shares. Each share in your portfolio would be valued at one-third the price of the original share. If one Tesla share is trading at $900 before the stock split, you'll have three Tesla shares valued at $300 each after the stock split. As you can see, the total value of your shares is still $900.Here's how many shares you will have after the stock split based on the number of shares you have on record as of Aug. 17. All you have to do is look at the number of shares you have now, and multiply the total by three. That's how many shares you'll have after a stock split.1 share of Tesla stock = 3 shares2 shares of Tesla stock = 6 shares3 shares of Tesla stock = 9 shares4 shares of Tesla stock = 12 shares5 shares of Tesla stock = 15 shares2. You won't have to report the stock split itself on your tax returnA stock split doesn't increase a company's market capitalization or increase the value of your shares. You may have more shares in your account, but the original value of your shares remains the same. Therefore, a stock split in itself is not considered a taxable event. There are no IRS reporting requirements you need to adhere to during tax time.3. You may have to pay taxes if you sell your extra Tesla sharesAlthough a stock split in itself is not taxable, selling stock for a profit after a stock split can lead to taxes. This is the case if you sell stock in a taxable brokerage account. Earning money in the stock market leads to capital gains taxes. You will be taxed at the short-term or long-term capital gains tax rate, depending on how long you had your Tesla stock before selling it. Your brokerage firm will send you the details of your transaction, so you can properly report the sale to the IRS during tax time.Stock splits can be exciting and pain-free in the eyes of the investor. You wake up to more shares in your account after a stock split, and you don't have to worry about any tax obligations. But as soon as you decide to sell, you'll need to report your moves to the IRS. Before you make a move after a stock split, pay attention to the impact it will have on your portfolio and taxes, so you won't be surprised later.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998007584,"gmtCreate":1660890167250,"gmtModify":1676536419606,"author":{"id":"4115693528173732","authorId":"4115693528173732","name":"FNMY","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/352adbcac591de817917c49023219125","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115693528173732","idStr":"4115693528173732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998007584","repostId":"2260326073","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2260326073","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1660881347,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2260326073?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-19 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Top Stocks to Buy During a Bear Market (And It's Not Even Close)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2260326073","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"A bear market also brings about good buying opportunities, provided you choose wisely.","content":"<div>\n<p>While no one likes to see their stocks lose value, it can also create a buying opportunity. The S&P 500 officially entered a bear market a couple of months ago, and when that happens, you can purchase...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/18/2-top-stock-to-buy-during-a-bear-market-and-its-no/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Top Stocks to Buy During a Bear Market (And It's Not Even Close)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Top Stocks to Buy During a Bear Market (And It's Not Even Close)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-19 11:55 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/18/2-top-stock-to-buy-during-a-bear-market-and-its-no/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While no one likes to see their stocks lose value, it can also create a buying opportunity. The S&P 500 officially entered a bear market a couple of months ago, and when that happens, you can purchase...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/18/2-top-stock-to-buy-during-a-bear-market-and-its-no/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COST":"好市多","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/18/2-top-stock-to-buy-during-a-bear-market-and-its-no/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2260326073","content_text":"While no one likes to see their stocks lose value, it can also create a buying opportunity. The S&P 500 officially entered a bear market a couple of months ago, and when that happens, you can purchase high-quality companies at a discount -- provided you choose wisely and have patience.Since the start of the year, Costco Wholesale and Apple have seen their stock prices drop by about 3.9% and 2.5%, respectively, and that's after regaining some ground over the past month. With both down for the year, this makes it an opportune time to see if their long-term prospects remain strong.Image source: Getty Images.CostcoCostco Wholesale has had a lot of success over the years by executing a simple concept: providing a range of high-quality goods and services at low unit prices. Customers at its warehouses pay annual membership fees to shop there.But they don't seem to mind. Paid membership continues to increase, finishing the fiscal third quarter (ended May 8) with 64.6 million members, up from 53.9 million for the quarter ended Sept. 1, 2019, before the pandemic began. With renewal rates hovering around 90% for years, it has garnered a loyal membership base, too.Loyal and growing members have added up to consistently growing profitability. In the most recent quarter, same-store sales (excluding the impacts of foreign currency translations and gasoline prices), increased by 11%. Operating income, despite confronting higher costs that have also affected other retailers, increased by 7.7% to about $1.8 billion.In a positive sign about its growth prospects, Costco continues to open new warehouses. This year, it has expanded by 14, ending the third quarter with 830 warehouses. Management expected to open an additional 10 in the last quarter of the year.AppleApple has built a loyal following by producing and selling must-have products such as the iPhone, Mac, iPad, and AirPods. It also provides various services, including technical, advertising, and digital content via its App store.On the surface, Apple didn't have a great quarter. In the fiscal third quarter, ended June 25, revenue grew by 1.9% to nearly $83 billion. Operating income fell by $1 billion to $23.1 billion. But I am optimistic this will prove a temporary blip.First, iPhone sales, which comprise 49% of Apple's latest quarterly revenue, grew by 2.8% to $40.7 billion. And that should improve as the company reportedly prepares to release its new version. Given people's desire to rush out to buy the latest iPhone, this should prove a boon to sales.Secondly, services grew by better than 12%, to $19.6 billion. Advertising, cloud, and AppleCare were the primary drivers. These should continue growing quickly. Notably, advertising represents a fast-growing area.With innovative products and high-quality service offerings, it won't take long before Apple's top line begins experiencing high growth again.It's encouraging that Costco and Apple continue to execute the strategies that have brought them a lot of success. In Costco's case, it's offering members a value proposition. Apple builds in-vogue products for which people clamor. There's no reason to think that each won't produce long-term sales and profit growth that will get their stock prices trending back up.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COST":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}