Callum_Thomas

Head of Research, Founder: @topdowncharts Global Macro & Asset Allocation Research

    • Callum_ThomasCallum_Thomas
      ·04-28 21:48

      Daily Charts - Most of the world's stock markets declined

      1.Inconvenient issue from the 1930's bear market (which was in part triggered by tariffs) Most of the world's stock markets declined -- there wasn't anywhere to hide...Image2.we just saw a spike in Gold market implied volatility (common exhaustion indicator; suggests a period of consolidation). Sentiment and positioning are also rolling over from overbought levelsGold topping signal... 👀(you tend to see gold $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ spikes at turning points and around trend exhaustions; best case is a period of consolidation)ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commissio
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      Daily Charts - Most of the world's stock markets declined
    • Callum_ThomasCallum_Thomas
      ·04-27 22:13

      Daily Charts - April tends to be the best month of the year during Bear Markets

      1.Fun Fact: during Bear Markets, April tends to be the best month of the year in terms of average return and percentage of instances positive.May & June tend to be rougher and tougher during bear markets (and Aug-Sep is the worst) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Sell in May?if it's a bull market, maybe don't bother...(but) if it's a Bear Market, it could be the right move at the right time from a historical seasonality standpoint.Image3.One piece of the Gold puzzle...Humanity is finding less and less gold... the difficulty of gold mining is rising.Remember, price is a function of demand AND supply. $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ Im
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      Daily Charts - April tends to be the best month of the year during Bear Markets
    • Callum_ThomasCallum_Thomas
      ·04-26 23:48

      Daily Charts - US Tech Stock dominance vs global tech stocks

      1.US Tech Stock dominance vs global tech stocks and vs US non-tech stocks has been a major theme in Global Equities.But there are signs that this huge strength in US markets may become a weakness in the months/years ahead... $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Image2.The Inheritance Economy? Thanks in part to generally higher asset prices, we’re seeing a clear uptrend and multi-decades high in inheritance flows as a proportion of national output...Image3.Ounces of Gold to buy a New House in the USA closing in on all-time lowsGood for gold holders $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy pri
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      Daily Charts - US Tech Stock dominance vs global tech stocks
    • Callum_ThomasCallum_Thomas
      ·04-24

      Daily Charts - Non-recessionary bears tend to be short and small

      1.Non-recessionary bears tend to be short and small 🧐 (problem is, it looks like recession is highly likely this year... risk manage accordingly!) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Want gold? Work Longer.The hours of work required for the average worker in the USA to buy an ounce of gold has broken out to a new all-time high.Who's the winner/loser here? $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ Image3.Trump is right.The Fed got it Wrong bigly.They hiked way too Late, missed the window to cut, and now might even have to hike rates... 😳(structural + cyclical uplift in chaos)ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today an
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      Daily Charts - Non-recessionary bears tend to be short and small
    • Callum_ThomasCallum_Thomas
      ·04-24

      Daily Charts - The worst chart you will see this year

      1.This may be the worst chart you will see this year...Heading into 2025 US Assets were trading at record high expensive levels -- priced for perfection but now plunged into imperfection.If 2009 was the best for investors, 2025 is the worst. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Image2."The Great Restructuring" ? 🤔 (maybe not so great for investors, but certainly things are shifting and changing and in a bigger and faster way than most can get their heads around)Image3.All That Glitters...While gold is pushing o
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      Daily Charts - The worst chart you will see this year
    • Callum_ThomasCallum_Thomas
      ·04-23

      Daily Charts - SPX Death Cross?

      1.Death Cross? 🤔"36 of the 49 instances saw the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ realize *gains* while the Death Cross was in effect. The problem is the losing trades were very large. And even most of the winners saw a sizable round-trip lower before they were able to carve out some gains" (Rob Hanna of Quantifiable Edges)Basically: don’t rely on this indicator, but definitely raise your focus on risk management and other factors when it’s active.Image2.While bearishness abounds, and there are very real downside risks, it's important not to lose sight of the opposite..."What's the best that could happen?"ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade
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      Daily Charts - SPX Death Cross?
    • Callum_ThomasCallum_Thomas
      ·04-23

      US Tech Stock Leadership

      A big part of the US vs global equity dominance has been the rise and rise of US Tech Stocks. We see similar types of dynamics as discussed above playing out in this chart too. Trend persistence, cycles, extremes, and trend-ends + cycle-turns.The shock rise in US (geo)political risk comes at a time where US tech stocks reached extremes in valuations and concentration (e.g. record high market cap weights), and an extreme surge in relative performance by US tech vs non-tech and global tech; all of which now appear to be at a trend exhaustion point… $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading lim
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      US Tech Stock Leadership
    • Callum_ThomasCallum_Thomas
      ·04-22

      Daily Charts - why are US stocks down?

      1.Tired: "why are US stocks down?"Wired: "why aren't US stocks down more?"From a Governance standpoint the USA is acting and talking like an Emerging Market.Should US stocks really be trading at a Premium vs rest of world, or more in line with EM? (i.e. ~36x or ~16x) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Image2.Global Equities "Relative Value Trinity"...something for those focused on the next 3-5 years and beyond (vs the next 3-5 days or hours for that matter!)Image3.Gold Miners are breaking out!And yet... inves
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      Daily Charts - why are US stocks down?
    • Callum_ThomasCallum_Thomas
      ·04-19

      Daily Charts - Gold vs Silver ETF assets

      1.Gold vs Silver ETF assetsSilver being left behind (...for now?)With retail finally starting to wake-up to gold, it makes you wonder when silver will start to join the party. $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ $Silver - main 2505(SImain)$ Image2.This chart shows foreign holdings of US equities vs their total holdings of US financial assets; you can see just how much foreign investors have been crowding into US stocks — just compare and contrast the peak of the dot com bubble vs the depths of the financial crisis. And the reality is foreign flows have been a critical part of the story above; driving things higher on the way up. $S&P 500(.SPX)$
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      Daily Charts - Gold vs Silver ETF assets
    • Callum_ThomasCallum_Thomas
      ·04-19

      Daily Charts - Chinese retail investors are chasing gains in Gold

      1.Chinese retail investors are chasing gains in Gold $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ Image2."Cutting your nose off to spite your trading partners" China vs USAStockmarket edition...Dragon's jaws set to close?Image3.Global Equities: best place to be in the coming years?= Literally Anywhere other than the USA.Developed Markets ex-USEmerging MarketsFrontier MarketsAll boast higher expected returns...ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here:Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading.💰J
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      Daily Charts - Chinese retail investors are chasing gains in Gold