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RichardKoid
RichardKoid
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2022-11-29
Appl the best
Apple’s Stock Buyback Bonanza Helps to Buoy Shares in Market Slump
Apple has spent $550 billion on repurchases in a decadeCash returns help offset short-term concerns
Apple’s Stock Buyback Bonanza Helps to Buoy Shares in Market Slump
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RichardKoid
RichardKoid
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2022-11-29
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RichardKoid
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2022-11-28
Thanks 😊
Year-End Rally? Bullish Stock-Market Pattern Set to Collide With Stagflation Fears
'The tricky part for investors in a stagflation scenario would be confusion over where to invest,' s
Year-End Rally? Bullish Stock-Market Pattern Set to Collide With Stagflation Fears
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Solid earnings and generous buybacks have become a central part of the investment thesis, making the stock more attractive during turbulent times.</p><h3>Massive Buybacks</h3><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5bdcde57916bace21e91d2ef7beada\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"351\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>“That’s how they get the safe haven, the gold standard view from investors,” said Gene Munster, who covered Apple during a 21-year career as an analyst before co-founding venture-capital firm Loup Ventures. “When they just keep showing up and generating the kind of cash they do and buying their own stock back, it sends a strong message and I think they’ll continue to do that as much as they can.”</p><p>The next signpost for investors about Apple’s appetite for its own stock will come in April, which is when the company typically tops up its repurchase authorization. It’s added $90 billion to the program in each of the past two years. It’s still generating the earnings to replenish its bank account: It was the only megacap to rally in the wake of its results this quarter, and the report kept analysts from dramatically slashing estimates, in contrast to widespread cuts at its peers.</p><h3>Net Cash Neutral</h3><p>Even with economies slowing around the world, demand is still strong for Apple’s most expensive iPhones, analysts say. The problem now is manufacturing delays because of Covid lockdowns in China, leading to what analysts say are record wait times for deliveries just as the holiday shopping season kicks off. While that may cause a short-term hit to revenue, there’s no sign it’s denting the longer-term case for the stock.</p><p>Apple accumulated cash for years under co-founder Steve Jobs, and Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook has been working on ways to better invest the money and return it to shareholders. Apple, which ended last quarter with $169 billion in cash and marketable securities, aims to have net cash -- cash minus debt outstanding -- of zero in the future.</p><p>“This is an aggressive bet that they made, something that Steve Jobs would have never done, and it’s paid off nicely for the company and its investors in part because the stock has done well during that period,” Munster said of the share repurchases.</p><p>Apple, the world’s largest company with a market value of almost $2.3 trillion, also is in a league of its own when it comes to share buybacks.</p><p>In two of the last five years, it has outspent the second-highest repurchaser by least $50 billion. It spent almost $90 billion last year, about equal to the market value of Citigroup Inc.</p><h3>Dominating Buyback Charts</h3><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e504e54952af625c58fcc077c57dc4c2\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Investors like buybacks because they reduce a company’s share count and thereby provide a lift to earnings per share. The risk is that a company overpays, buying at a time when the stock is overvalued. Apple, though, says it’s paid an average price of $47 a share since it began buying back stock a decade ago, compared with the current share price of $144.22.</p><p>Apple has steered clear from using its cash pile to make large acquisitions, at a time when scrutiny of the size and clout of megacap tech firms is rising. Bulls say buybacks have been a good strategy for the company, until it turns its resources to a new product category like automotive, which could prove more capital intensive.</p><p>“In general, investors would like to see cash being used to generate growth,” said Lewis Grant, senior portfolio manager for global equities at Federated Hermes Ltd. “But when you look at a company the size of Apple and the amount of cash that we’re really talking about, deploying tens of billions of dollars every year to generate growth is perhaps overly ambitious.”</p><p>Apple also pays a cash dividend, but it’s almost an afterthought. The quarterly payout of 23 cents a share equals 0.6% of the stock price, one of the lowest yields in the S&P 500 index. Apple raised the payout by a penny in May and said it’s committed to annual increases.</p><p>However, investors don’t seem overly concerned how the company chooses to return capital, as long as they continue to do so.</p><p>“We actually don’t care which way you send the capital back to us,” said Mark Stoeckle, Adams Funds’ chief executive officer, adding that Apple would have to raise its dividend by “an enormous amount” to get to a yield that would matter. “We just don’t see that happening, so we’re just as happy with the stock buyback.”</p><h3>Tech Chart of the Day</h3><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa7ca1712e341191ddece38007542608\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Activision Blizzard Inc. analysts are growing more positive on the video-game maker, seeing value in the stock even as Microsoft Corp.’s planned acquisition looks increasingly dicey. At least six firms have upgraded their ratings in November, including three on Monday. The trend has lifted the Bloomberg consensus rating on the stock -- a ratio of its buy, hold and sell ratings -- to 4.6 out of 5, its highest since January, and up from an April low of 3.94. This has made Activision nearly as well liked among Wall Street analysts as Take-Two Interactive Software Inc., which boasts a consensus rating of 4.57, and above Electronic Arts Inc., which has a consensus rating of 4.29.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple’s Stock Buyback Bonanza Helps to Buoy Shares in Market Slump</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple’s Stock Buyback Bonanza Helps to Buoy Shares in Market Slump\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-29 20:09 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-29/apple-aapl-stock-buyback-bonanza-helps-to-buoy-stock-in-market-slump?srnd=premium><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple has spent $550 billion on repurchases in a decadeCash returns help offset short-term concerns on iPhone outputApple Inc. has shelled out more than $550 billion buying back its own shares over ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-29/apple-aapl-stock-buyback-bonanza-helps-to-buoy-stock-in-market-slump?srnd=premium\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-29/apple-aapl-stock-buyback-bonanza-helps-to-buoy-stock-in-market-slump?srnd=premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123801521","content_text":"Apple has spent $550 billion on repurchases in a decadeCash returns help offset short-term concerns on iPhone outputApple Inc. has shelled out more than $550 billion buying back its own shares over the past decade, more than any other US company, and the technology juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down.Even with the stock under pressure the past few days because of production delays for its newest handsets, Apple has fared better than other megacap tech companies in this year’s bear market. Solid earnings and generous buybacks have become a central part of the investment thesis, making the stock more attractive during turbulent times.Massive Buybacks“That’s how they get the safe haven, the gold standard view from investors,” said Gene Munster, who covered Apple during a 21-year career as an analyst before co-founding venture-capital firm Loup Ventures. “When they just keep showing up and generating the kind of cash they do and buying their own stock back, it sends a strong message and I think they’ll continue to do that as much as they can.”The next signpost for investors about Apple’s appetite for its own stock will come in April, which is when the company typically tops up its repurchase authorization. It’s added $90 billion to the program in each of the past two years. It’s still generating the earnings to replenish its bank account: It was the only megacap to rally in the wake of its results this quarter, and the report kept analysts from dramatically slashing estimates, in contrast to widespread cuts at its peers.Net Cash NeutralEven with economies slowing around the world, demand is still strong for Apple’s most expensive iPhones, analysts say. The problem now is manufacturing delays because of Covid lockdowns in China, leading to what analysts say are record wait times for deliveries just as the holiday shopping season kicks off. While that may cause a short-term hit to revenue, there’s no sign it’s denting the longer-term case for the stock.Apple accumulated cash for years under co-founder Steve Jobs, and Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook has been working on ways to better invest the money and return it to shareholders. Apple, which ended last quarter with $169 billion in cash and marketable securities, aims to have net cash -- cash minus debt outstanding -- of zero in the future.“This is an aggressive bet that they made, something that Steve Jobs would have never done, and it’s paid off nicely for the company and its investors in part because the stock has done well during that period,” Munster said of the share repurchases.Apple, the world’s largest company with a market value of almost $2.3 trillion, also is in a league of its own when it comes to share buybacks.In two of the last five years, it has outspent the second-highest repurchaser by least $50 billion. It spent almost $90 billion last year, about equal to the market value of Citigroup Inc.Dominating Buyback ChartsInvestors like buybacks because they reduce a company’s share count and thereby provide a lift to earnings per share. The risk is that a company overpays, buying at a time when the stock is overvalued. Apple, though, says it’s paid an average price of $47 a share since it began buying back stock a decade ago, compared with the current share price of $144.22.Apple has steered clear from using its cash pile to make large acquisitions, at a time when scrutiny of the size and clout of megacap tech firms is rising. Bulls say buybacks have been a good strategy for the company, until it turns its resources to a new product category like automotive, which could prove more capital intensive.“In general, investors would like to see cash being used to generate growth,” said Lewis Grant, senior portfolio manager for global equities at Federated Hermes Ltd. “But when you look at a company the size of Apple and the amount of cash that we’re really talking about, deploying tens of billions of dollars every year to generate growth is perhaps overly ambitious.”Apple also pays a cash dividend, but it’s almost an afterthought. The quarterly payout of 23 cents a share equals 0.6% of the stock price, one of the lowest yields in the S&P 500 index. Apple raised the payout by a penny in May and said it’s committed to annual increases.However, investors don’t seem overly concerned how the company chooses to return capital, as long as they continue to do so.“We actually don’t care which way you send the capital back to us,” said Mark Stoeckle, Adams Funds’ chief executive officer, adding that Apple would have to raise its dividend by “an enormous amount” to get to a yield that would matter. “We just don’t see that happening, so we’re just as happy with the stock buyback.”Tech Chart of the DayActivision Blizzard Inc. analysts are growing more positive on the video-game maker, seeing value in the stock even as Microsoft Corp.’s planned acquisition looks increasingly dicey. At least six firms have upgraded their ratings in November, including three on Monday. The trend has lifted the Bloomberg consensus rating on the stock -- a ratio of its buy, hold and sell ratings -- to 4.6 out of 5, its highest since January, and up from an April low of 3.94. This has made Activision nearly as well liked among Wall Street analysts as Take-Two Interactive Software Inc., which boasts a consensus rating of 4.57, and above Electronic Arts Inc., which has a consensus rating of 4.29.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962056373,"gmtCreate":1669682613492,"gmtModify":1676538222213,"author":{"id":"4132659789490822","authorId":"4132659789490822","name":"RichardKoid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4132659789490822","authorIdStr":"4132659789490822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$ </a>","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a70a3130b393420d7ef8679283cdb338","width":"1080","height":"2197"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962056373","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966417819,"gmtCreate":1669610020331,"gmtModify":1676538213438,"author":{"id":"4132659789490822","authorId":"4132659789490822","name":"RichardKoid","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4132659789490822","authorIdStr":"4132659789490822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks 😊 ","listText":"Thanks 😊 ","text":"Thanks 😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966417819","repostId":"2286370103","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2286370103","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1669590879,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2286370103?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-11-28 07:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Year-End Rally? Bullish Stock-Market Pattern Set to Collide With Stagflation Fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286370103","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"'The tricky part for investors in a stagflation scenario would be confusion over where to invest,' s","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>'The tricky part for investors in a stagflation scenario would be confusion over where to invest,' said Mark Neuman, founder of Atlanta-based Constrained Capital.</p><p>The period between now and year-end marks a historically bullish final stretch of the year for U.S. stocks, particularly just before and after Christmas. The question for investors is whether favorable seasonal factors will be outweighed by economic fundamentals.The momentum toward a year-end rush to stocks seems to only be getting stronger now that the S&P 500 has rallied 12.6% from its October low -- fueled by better-than-expected inflation reports for last month and business-friendly Republicans' narrow win of the House.</p><p>Dow industrials have jumped nearly 20% since a late-September low, on the cusp of the threshold that would mark an exit from a bear market, while the Nasdaq Composite has put in a middling performance as investors remain in a wait-and-see crouch about the Federal Reserve's December rate decision, further inflation data, and geopolitical risks overseas.</p><p>Major indexes logged gains in a holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week, with the Dow up 1.8%, the S&P 500 gaining 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 0.7%.</p><p>And then there's a seasonal end-of-year tailwind. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P 500 has risen 71% of the time in the stretch from Thanksgiving to year-end, based on figures going back to 1950. On average, the large-cap benchmark has risen 1.8% in that period. Such data can be a rough guide for investors, but is no guarantee of performance in a given year, as the red lines in the chart below illustrate.</p><p>And that favorable seasonal pattern could be set to collide with fears that 2023 could bring stagflation: the worst-of-all-possible economic outcomes and one that investors would be hard-pressed to be prepared for. Stagflation is defined as a period of slow economic growth plus persistently high inflation, a dynamic that may already be under way in the U.S.</p><p>Warnings of a possibly deep U.S. recession ahead are flashing regularly in the bond market, where the widely followed spread between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields remains near minus 80 basis points -- meaning the 10-year rate stands nearly 0.8 percentage point below the 2-year yield. The curve in the past week hit its most deeply inverted since 1981. Such inversions are seen as a reliable recession indicator.</p><p>U.S. growth turned positive in the third quarter and inflation appears to be easing, based on October's consumer-price index in which the annual headline rate dropped to 7.7% from 8.2% previously. Yet price gains are not coming off fast enough for the Federal Reserve to completely abandon aggressive rate hikes, which could tip the world's largest economy into a downturn."The tricky part for investors in a stagflation scenario would be confusion over where to invest," said Mark Neuman, founder of Atlanta-based Constrained Capital and creator of the ESG Orphans Index which tracks stocks with $3 trillion in combined market capitalization.</p><p>That's a reversal from the market trends which prevailed for much of this year and "is due partly to extreme investor positioning in these trades being flipped by the fear of missing out [on] a year-end rally," said Jason Draho, head of asset allocation for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.Adding to the past month's bullish tone in stocks has been October's stronger-than-expected retail sales plus a weaker-than-expected producer-price report, both of which show that "the economy is holding up well, despite the ongoing rise in short-term rates," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA Research in New York. "Seasonality will offer a bit of a lift to stocks toward the end of the year, and I think investors are expecting the Federal Reserve to hike by 50 basis points in December and maybe not be all that hawkish in their statement," Stovall said via phone. "Right now, the stock market is assuming we don't fall into a recession or, if we do have a recession, it will be mild and that the Fed will likely lower interest rates in the latter part of 2023."He said that CFRA's economic outlook calls for the U.S. economy to narrowly miss a recession, yet still fall into stagflation, followed by a U-shaped, rather than a V-shaped, recovery.</p><p>"If the direction of inflation continues to be downward -- that is, inflation gradually but consistently falling -- that would be enough to make investors feel pretty good in my opinion," Stovall told MarketWatch. "In addition, we are expecting to see an improvement in corporate profit growth as we move into 2023."According to Stephen Suttmeier, chief equity technical strategist for BofA Securities, the last 10 trading sessions of December through the first 10 sessions of January has proven to be a bullish period for the S&P 500, time and time again: The index is up 72% of the time on an average return of 1.19% during the last 10 trading sessions of December, he said. That strength tends to carry over into the new year, with the S&P 500 up 64% of the time on an average return of 0.72% during the first 10 days of January.</p><p>Mark Hulbert: 'Santa Claus rally' for stocks is likely this year -- but you won't be opening presents until after ChristmasThose year-end seasonal factors run alongside a well-known pattern that has seen stocks put in their best performance over a six-month stretch beginning in November.</p><p>The six-month period from November to April tends to particularly favor equities across a swath of cyclical stocks, according to strategist Rob Anderson and analyst Thanh Nguyen at Ned Davis Research. NDR's Broad Cyclical Index, which includes the industrial, consumer-discretionary and materials sectors, has outperformed a defensive basket made up of staples, healthcare, utility and telecommunications companies, on average, between those six months since 1972.They also said that technical reasons support the case for a year-end rally in U.S. stocks, while noting that "outside forces can overwhelm seasonal trends."</p><p>The highlights for the week ahead include Thursday's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge for October and Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for November.On Monday, MarketWatch interviews St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. Tuesday brings the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. home price index, the FHFA U.S. home price index, and November's consumer-confidence index.</p><p>Wednesday's major data releases include the ADP employment report, a revision to third-quarter GDP, the Chicago purchasing managers index, updates on job openings and quits for October, and the Fed's Beige Book report. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also set to speak at the Brookings Institution.Thursday's data batch includes weekly jobless claims, October's personal-consumption expenditures price index, the S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI, and ISM's manufacturing index. On Friday, November's nonfarm payrolls data and unemployment rate are released.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Year-End Rally? Bullish Stock-Market Pattern Set to Collide With Stagflation Fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYear-End Rally? Bullish Stock-Market Pattern Set to Collide With Stagflation Fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-28 07:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>'The tricky part for investors in a stagflation scenario would be confusion over where to invest,' said Mark Neuman, founder of Atlanta-based Constrained Capital.</p><p>The period between now and year-end marks a historically bullish final stretch of the year for U.S. stocks, particularly just before and after Christmas. The question for investors is whether favorable seasonal factors will be outweighed by economic fundamentals.The momentum toward a year-end rush to stocks seems to only be getting stronger now that the S&P 500 has rallied 12.6% from its October low -- fueled by better-than-expected inflation reports for last month and business-friendly Republicans' narrow win of the House.</p><p>Dow industrials have jumped nearly 20% since a late-September low, on the cusp of the threshold that would mark an exit from a bear market, while the Nasdaq Composite has put in a middling performance as investors remain in a wait-and-see crouch about the Federal Reserve's December rate decision, further inflation data, and geopolitical risks overseas.</p><p>Major indexes logged gains in a holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week, with the Dow up 1.8%, the S&P 500 gaining 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 0.7%.</p><p>And then there's a seasonal end-of-year tailwind. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P 500 has risen 71% of the time in the stretch from Thanksgiving to year-end, based on figures going back to 1950. On average, the large-cap benchmark has risen 1.8% in that period. Such data can be a rough guide for investors, but is no guarantee of performance in a given year, as the red lines in the chart below illustrate.</p><p>And that favorable seasonal pattern could be set to collide with fears that 2023 could bring stagflation: the worst-of-all-possible economic outcomes and one that investors would be hard-pressed to be prepared for. Stagflation is defined as a period of slow economic growth plus persistently high inflation, a dynamic that may already be under way in the U.S.</p><p>Warnings of a possibly deep U.S. recession ahead are flashing regularly in the bond market, where the widely followed spread between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields remains near minus 80 basis points -- meaning the 10-year rate stands nearly 0.8 percentage point below the 2-year yield. The curve in the past week hit its most deeply inverted since 1981. Such inversions are seen as a reliable recession indicator.</p><p>U.S. growth turned positive in the third quarter and inflation appears to be easing, based on October's consumer-price index in which the annual headline rate dropped to 7.7% from 8.2% previously. Yet price gains are not coming off fast enough for the Federal Reserve to completely abandon aggressive rate hikes, which could tip the world's largest economy into a downturn."The tricky part for investors in a stagflation scenario would be confusion over where to invest," said Mark Neuman, founder of Atlanta-based Constrained Capital and creator of the ESG Orphans Index which tracks stocks with $3 trillion in combined market capitalization.</p><p>That's a reversal from the market trends which prevailed for much of this year and "is due partly to extreme investor positioning in these trades being flipped by the fear of missing out [on] a year-end rally," said Jason Draho, head of asset allocation for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.Adding to the past month's bullish tone in stocks has been October's stronger-than-expected retail sales plus a weaker-than-expected producer-price report, both of which show that "the economy is holding up well, despite the ongoing rise in short-term rates," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA Research in New York. "Seasonality will offer a bit of a lift to stocks toward the end of the year, and I think investors are expecting the Federal Reserve to hike by 50 basis points in December and maybe not be all that hawkish in their statement," Stovall said via phone. "Right now, the stock market is assuming we don't fall into a recession or, if we do have a recession, it will be mild and that the Fed will likely lower interest rates in the latter part of 2023."He said that CFRA's economic outlook calls for the U.S. economy to narrowly miss a recession, yet still fall into stagflation, followed by a U-shaped, rather than a V-shaped, recovery.</p><p>"If the direction of inflation continues to be downward -- that is, inflation gradually but consistently falling -- that would be enough to make investors feel pretty good in my opinion," Stovall told MarketWatch. "In addition, we are expecting to see an improvement in corporate profit growth as we move into 2023."According to Stephen Suttmeier, chief equity technical strategist for BofA Securities, the last 10 trading sessions of December through the first 10 sessions of January has proven to be a bullish period for the S&P 500, time and time again: The index is up 72% of the time on an average return of 1.19% during the last 10 trading sessions of December, he said. That strength tends to carry over into the new year, with the S&P 500 up 64% of the time on an average return of 0.72% during the first 10 days of January.</p><p>Mark Hulbert: 'Santa Claus rally' for stocks is likely this year -- but you won't be opening presents until after ChristmasThose year-end seasonal factors run alongside a well-known pattern that has seen stocks put in their best performance over a six-month stretch beginning in November.</p><p>The six-month period from November to April tends to particularly favor equities across a swath of cyclical stocks, according to strategist Rob Anderson and analyst Thanh Nguyen at Ned Davis Research. NDR's Broad Cyclical Index, which includes the industrial, consumer-discretionary and materials sectors, has outperformed a defensive basket made up of staples, healthcare, utility and telecommunications companies, on average, between those six months since 1972.They also said that technical reasons support the case for a year-end rally in U.S. stocks, while noting that "outside forces can overwhelm seasonal trends."</p><p>The highlights for the week ahead include Thursday's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge for October and Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for November.On Monday, MarketWatch interviews St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. Tuesday brings the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. home price index, the FHFA U.S. home price index, and November's consumer-confidence index.</p><p>Wednesday's major data releases include the ADP employment report, a revision to third-quarter GDP, the Chicago purchasing managers index, updates on job openings and quits for October, and the Fed's Beige Book report. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also set to speak at the Brookings Institution.Thursday's data batch includes weekly jobless claims, October's personal-consumption expenditures price index, the S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI, and ISM's manufacturing index. On Friday, November's nonfarm payrolls data and unemployment rate are released.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286370103","content_text":"'The tricky part for investors in a stagflation scenario would be confusion over where to invest,' said Mark Neuman, founder of Atlanta-based Constrained Capital.The period between now and year-end marks a historically bullish final stretch of the year for U.S. stocks, particularly just before and after Christmas. The question for investors is whether favorable seasonal factors will be outweighed by economic fundamentals.The momentum toward a year-end rush to stocks seems to only be getting stronger now that the S&P 500 has rallied 12.6% from its October low -- fueled by better-than-expected inflation reports for last month and business-friendly Republicans' narrow win of the House.Dow industrials have jumped nearly 20% since a late-September low, on the cusp of the threshold that would mark an exit from a bear market, while the Nasdaq Composite has put in a middling performance as investors remain in a wait-and-see crouch about the Federal Reserve's December rate decision, further inflation data, and geopolitical risks overseas.Major indexes logged gains in a holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week, with the Dow up 1.8%, the S&P 500 gaining 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 0.7%.And then there's a seasonal end-of-year tailwind. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P 500 has risen 71% of the time in the stretch from Thanksgiving to year-end, based on figures going back to 1950. On average, the large-cap benchmark has risen 1.8% in that period. Such data can be a rough guide for investors, but is no guarantee of performance in a given year, as the red lines in the chart below illustrate.And that favorable seasonal pattern could be set to collide with fears that 2023 could bring stagflation: the worst-of-all-possible economic outcomes and one that investors would be hard-pressed to be prepared for. Stagflation is defined as a period of slow economic growth plus persistently high inflation, a dynamic that may already be under way in the U.S.Warnings of a possibly deep U.S. recession ahead are flashing regularly in the bond market, where the widely followed spread between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields remains near minus 80 basis points -- meaning the 10-year rate stands nearly 0.8 percentage point below the 2-year yield. The curve in the past week hit its most deeply inverted since 1981. Such inversions are seen as a reliable recession indicator.U.S. growth turned positive in the third quarter and inflation appears to be easing, based on October's consumer-price index in which the annual headline rate dropped to 7.7% from 8.2% previously. Yet price gains are not coming off fast enough for the Federal Reserve to completely abandon aggressive rate hikes, which could tip the world's largest economy into a downturn.\"The tricky part for investors in a stagflation scenario would be confusion over where to invest,\" said Mark Neuman, founder of Atlanta-based Constrained Capital and creator of the ESG Orphans Index which tracks stocks with $3 trillion in combined market capitalization.That's a reversal from the market trends which prevailed for much of this year and \"is due partly to extreme investor positioning in these trades being flipped by the fear of missing out [on] a year-end rally,\" said Jason Draho, head of asset allocation for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.Adding to the past month's bullish tone in stocks has been October's stronger-than-expected retail sales plus a weaker-than-expected producer-price report, both of which show that \"the economy is holding up well, despite the ongoing rise in short-term rates,\" said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA Research in New York. \"Seasonality will offer a bit of a lift to stocks toward the end of the year, and I think investors are expecting the Federal Reserve to hike by 50 basis points in December and maybe not be all that hawkish in their statement,\" Stovall said via phone. \"Right now, the stock market is assuming we don't fall into a recession or, if we do have a recession, it will be mild and that the Fed will likely lower interest rates in the latter part of 2023.\"He said that CFRA's economic outlook calls for the U.S. economy to narrowly miss a recession, yet still fall into stagflation, followed by a U-shaped, rather than a V-shaped, recovery.\"If the direction of inflation continues to be downward -- that is, inflation gradually but consistently falling -- that would be enough to make investors feel pretty good in my opinion,\" Stovall told MarketWatch. \"In addition, we are expecting to see an improvement in corporate profit growth as we move into 2023.\"According to Stephen Suttmeier, chief equity technical strategist for BofA Securities, the last 10 trading sessions of December through the first 10 sessions of January has proven to be a bullish period for the S&P 500, time and time again: The index is up 72% of the time on an average return of 1.19% during the last 10 trading sessions of December, he said. That strength tends to carry over into the new year, with the S&P 500 up 64% of the time on an average return of 0.72% during the first 10 days of January.Mark Hulbert: 'Santa Claus rally' for stocks is likely this year -- but you won't be opening presents until after ChristmasThose year-end seasonal factors run alongside a well-known pattern that has seen stocks put in their best performance over a six-month stretch beginning in November.The six-month period from November to April tends to particularly favor equities across a swath of cyclical stocks, according to strategist Rob Anderson and analyst Thanh Nguyen at Ned Davis Research. NDR's Broad Cyclical Index, which includes the industrial, consumer-discretionary and materials sectors, has outperformed a defensive basket made up of staples, healthcare, utility and telecommunications companies, on average, between those six months since 1972.They also said that technical reasons support the case for a year-end rally in U.S. stocks, while noting that \"outside forces can overwhelm seasonal trends.\"The highlights for the week ahead include Thursday's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge for October and Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for November.On Monday, MarketWatch interviews St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. Tuesday brings the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. home price index, the FHFA U.S. home price index, and November's consumer-confidence index.Wednesday's major data releases include the ADP employment report, a revision to third-quarter GDP, the Chicago purchasing managers index, updates on job openings and quits for October, and the Fed's Beige Book report. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also set to speak at the Brookings Institution.Thursday's data batch includes weekly jobless claims, October's personal-consumption expenditures price index, the S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI, and ISM's manufacturing index. On Friday, November's nonfarm payrolls data and unemployment rate are released.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}