I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Asset Management II. Key Market Themes i. Trump Threatens Powell from Afar: Where Are the Opportunities in a Weak Dollar? Last Wednesday, the U.S. March retail sales data came in, showing a 1.4% month-on-month increase. While slightly exceeding market expectations, it marked the largest monthly rise in nearly 30 months. However, the market did not view this as entirely positive。 On one hand, the robust data further reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. On the other hand, the market widely interpreted the surge as panic buying driven by American households’ fear of impending tariffs. Breaking down the components, the automotive sector alone contributed nearly 70% of the growth—a
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Asset Management II. Key Market Themes i. Tariff Relief and Treasury Turmoil: Turning Point or Trap? Last week saw dramatic swings in global financial assets. As anticipated, U.S. stocks briefly bottomed out, then staged a strong rebound after Trump announced a 90-day pause on retaliatory tariffs. The Nasdaq surged over 12% last Wednesday, marking its third-largest single-day gain in nearly 40 years. However, this might not be a positive sign—historically, such massive one-day rallies in U.S. equities have often coincided with market crises, such as the 2000 dot-com bubble, the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, or the 1987 Black Monday crash. Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Asset Management Meanwhile, last week's U
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices II. Key Market Themes Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Asset Management i. PCE Commentary: Expected Data Triggers Predictable Market Sell-Off Tariffs Hit Hard, Fed Refuses to Coordinate: Has Short-Term Pressure on U.S. Stocks Bottomed Out? Last week, Trump's tariff measures finally took effect, with severity exceeding all expectations—imposing the most severe "countermeasures" right from the start. First, a 10% minimum baseline tariff was set for all global trade partners, followed by additional reciprocal tariffs on specific countries: 34% on China, 20% on the EU, 46% on Vietnam, 24% on Japan, and others. This instantly plunged markets into panic. The day after the tariffs were announced, U.S. stocks plummeted, with the S&P 500 and
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Asset Management II. Key Market Themes i. PCE Commentary: Expected Data Triggers Predictable Market Sell-Off Last Friday, the U.S. February PCE inflation data unsurprisingly surged again. The core PCE rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations. Consequently, the three-month and six-month annualized moving averages of core PCE reversed upward to 3.58% and 3.08% respectively, once again moving further away from the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% inflation target. Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Asset Management Meanwhile, U.S. household personal income rose by 0.8% month-on-month, significantly exceeding expectations; however, personal spending growth was only 0.4%, falling
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Asset Management II. Key Market Themes i. FOMC Commentary: Slowing Balance Sheet Runoff Fails to Mask Stagflation Gloom; Forced Composure Unable to Alleviate Macroeconomic Concerns. Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting unfolded as scheduled, with most actions aligning with market expectations. The central bank maintained its policy rate unchanged, while Chair Powell reiterated the Fed's position of being in no rush to cut rates. Although the dot plot continues to signal two rate cuts within this year, policymakers have adopted a more cautious stance compared to December 2022, with over 40% of officials now supporting either a single rate cut or none at all for 2024. Correspondingly, the F
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Inflation Data Improves, Consumption Continues to Surge, Will US Stocks Begin to Rebound or Continue to Decline? Last week, the US February inflation data came in below market expectations across the board, slightly easing the tense market sentiment. Specifically, both CPI and core CPI increased by 0.22% and 0.23% month-over-month, respectively, both slightly below the expected 0.3%. Moreover, PPI and core PPI surprisingly showed a rare month-over-month decline. However, immediately after, Nick, the Fed's mouthpiece, along with major investment banks, raised their forecasts for the February PCE. Currently, Wall Street's expectations for the month-over-month
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Trump Sparks a U.S. Version of the "Debt Reduction Movement" – When Will the Slumping U.S. Stock Market Bottom Out? Trump Sparks a U.S. Version of the "Debt Reduction Movement" – When Will the Slumping U.S. Stock Market Bottom Out?** Recently, the sharp decline in U.S. stocks has undoubtedly been the most pressing concern for investors. Since mid-to-late February, over just a dozen trading days, the Nasdaq has plunged approximately 12%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has led the downturn with a 16% drop; and the once red-hot "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks have suffered significant losses. Tesla has been cut in half, Nvidia has retraced 30% from its pe
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. NVIDIA’s Stellar Earnings, Yet Stock Plummets—Is the U.S. Market Narrative Over? Last week, U.S. tech giant NVIDIA $英伟达(NVDA)$ released its latest earnings report, showing an astounding 78% year-over-year revenue growth and an 80% surge in profits—once again exceeding market expectations. In terms of performance, NVIDIA’s report was nearly flawless. The only notable downside was a sequential decline in gross margin, which was already anticipated, given the higher costs and lower margins of the new Blackwell architecture. However, despite the strong earnings, NVIDIA’s stock price fell nearly 8% in a single day, trigg
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Greater China Market Volatility Intensifies as Trump Announces China Restrictions—How to Position for the Future? Recently, Greater China tech stocks have continued to lead the global market. Alibaba’s latest earnings report revealed a quarterly capital expenditure of $31.7 billion, further igniting investment enthusiasm in China’s AI sector. However, over the weekend, the White House released a presidential memorandum on the “America First” investment policy, restricting both Chinese capital from investing in core U.S. assets and U.S. capital from flowing into related Chinese enterprises. This has caused significant market fluctuations in Greater China. In
I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Greater China Tech Stocks Surge—Is It Too Late to Invest? Recently, driven by DeepSeek’s impact, the Greater China technology sector has experienced a significant rally. Since February, the Hang Seng Tech Index has surged over 15%, with Alibaba leading the charge, rising nearly 40% in just half a month. Additionally, trading volume in the Hang Seng Tech Index has surged, exceeding HKD 1 trillion in just two weeks. If this trend continues, February’s total trading volume could reach a historic high. Despite the rally, Greater China tech stocks remain undervalued. Current data shows that the Hang Seng Tech Index’s P/E ratio