I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Highlights ◼ Last week, U.S. equities staged a strong Thanksgiving rebound, with the Nasdaq rising nearly 5%. The market is currently trading along two main threads. First, investors are focused on whether the Fed will actually deliver a rate cut in December. With aggressive market pricing already in place combined with expectations of a BOJ rate hike-any disappointment this month could pressure high-valuation sectors. Second, the Al narrative is diverging: the "Google ecosystem" strengthened while the "OpenAl ecosystem" came under pressure. That said, we believe Al's long-term growth potential far outweighs any zero-sum competitive framing. Each frontier model developer has distinct advantages, and
I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Highlights ◼ U.S. equities saw widening volatility and continued declines last week, as active funds cooled and market sentiment turned cautious. Ahead of the December FOMC meeting, both macro data and Fed communication will enter a relative quiet period, likely keeping indices in a phase of high-volatility consolidation. Even so, buybacks and allocation flows are providing notable downside support. Within the Fed, views on a possible December rate cut are clearly divided. We believe the probability of no cut in December is higher, but the Fed may compensate with a more dovish forward path for next year. In AI, NVIDIA delivered strong earnings but was suppressed by macro headwinds. Meanwhile, Google
I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Highlights ◼ Last week, U.S. equities saw heightened volatility, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ending roughly flat. On the earnings front, the U.S. market remained resilient: among companies that have reported Q3 results, 82% beat EPS expectations, and the S&P 500’s net profit margin is expected to reach 13.1%, a 15-year high. Meanwhile, macro indicators softened, and the probability of a December rate cut has fallen to below 50%. However, due to high fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply, the medium-term easing trend remains unchanged. ◼From a structural perspective, high-beta sectors have become crowded and appear expensive, increasing the risk of pullbacks. We recommend trimming hi
I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Highlights ◼ Last week, U.S. equities weakened amid prolonged government shutdown risks and renewed debates over AI capital spending. The Nasdaq fell nearly 3%, marking its largest weekly drop since April. Although the government shutdown set a new record for duration, the crisis has since eased, and related macro risks have largely subsided. Meanwhile, tech giants such as Meta and Oracle issued over USD 75 billion in new debt within two months to expand AI infrastructure, triggering volatility in credit markets. Nevertheless, we believe these short-term concerns will not derail the broader AI trend — the key drivers for U.S. equities in the medium term remain earnings delivery and the pace of capit
I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Highlights ◼ Last week, US equities edged higher amid the US-China ceasefire and strong tech earnings. The two sides reached a one-year trade truce, easing macro uncertainty and providing more stable expectations for corporate profits and investment. In addition, the Fed delivered the widely-expected 25bp rate cut and announced the end of QT. Although Powell's tone was slightly hawkish, the overall stance remained accommodative - he believes inflation is approaching target and the labour market is cooling gradually. Meanwhile, the four major tech giants generally beat expectations, driving upward revisions to S&P 500 earnings forecasts. While elevated Al capex raised concerns about short-term re
I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Highlights ◼ Last week, U.S. equities moved higher amid easing U.S.–China tensions and cooling inflation. Following the Kuala Lumpur meeting, both sides released positive signals, and September CPI data came in better than expected across the board. Markets now broadly anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points this week, temporarily alleviating macro risks. However, concerns over long-term inflation and technological rivalry remain. Tight liquidity and public fund rebalancing could amplify volatility, while corporate buybacks in November are expected to provide support. This week’s tech giants’ earnings will set the market tone — AI leaders may continue to outperform, wit
I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Highlights ◼ Last week, U.S. equities experienced heightened volatility as market sentiment swung between U.S.–China negotiations, credit events, policy signals, and AI-related earnings. Trump’s softened stance toward China eased expectations of extreme trade friction, yet competition between the two nations in semiconductors and strategic resources is set to persist. A credit fraud scandal at a regional bank triggered brief panic, but solid results from major banks suggested limited systemic risk. Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks indicated the balance sheet reduction may be nearing its end, reinforcing rate-cut expectations. The tech sector remained resilient — with stellar earnings from ASML and
I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Highlights ◼ Last week, U.S. equities came under short-term pressure due to multiple disruptions, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting notable pullbacks. However, the VIX only rose to around 20, while both U.S. Treasuries and gold strengthened, suggesting the absence of systemic risk. The latest tariff escalation appears to be more of a pre-APEC negotiation maneuver, with limited extreme risk. AI and rare earths have emerged as key battlegrounds, and semiconductor volatility may intensify. Despite weak macro sentiment, the U.S. AI value chain continues to demonstrate strong earnings visibility, with upstream hardware and cloud infrastructure reinforcing the long-term investment case. Overall, the
I. Performance of Global Equity Indices (in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Highlights ◼ Last week, Chair Powell openly noted that U.S. equity valuations appear stretched, triggering a short-term pullback. Nonetheless, macro fundamentals and earnings continue to provide a floor. Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8%, while August core PCE came in at 2.9% YoY—evidence of economic resilience and contained inflation. Labor market cooling has had limited impact in the context of a rate-cutting cycle, allowing the “Goldilocks” narrative to persist. Consumption remains broadly stable but increasingly reliant on high-income households, with weak sentiment among low-income families posing medium-term risks. On the earnings side, demand from AI continues to drive recovery, with S&P 500
I. Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Highlights ◼ Last week, the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut. Internal divergence was limited, and the dot plot shifted lower, suggesting the possibility of 1–2 additional cuts within the year. The SEP revised up growth forecasts while lowering the medium- to long-term inflation outlook. Chair Powell emphasized this move as a “risk-management cut,” reiterating that policy remains data-dependent and future pacing may adjust with economic surprises. We believe markets may be underestimating the downside potential for interest rates, and the benchmark rate could decline to 2.5% next year. In U.S. equities, the main narrative remains intact: AI hardware and growth sectors contin