$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is losing market share in China and US. Being targeted as usual given they have the leading AI chip but with US gov disruptive policies on tariff, sanctions etc which clearly hurt and destroy US companies market share and in the process handicapping US tech companies from leading innovation and setting standards for the world. Short US ech stocks and sell into any rally (if there is) for the near term earning is clearly diminished and the trade war started by trump and his yes men with China will not yield results let alone any deal with the US side acting like an entitled spoilt kid thinking his father owns the world. US economy will contract sharply and a recession is 100% imminent. Without a deal with China
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Bearish for the next 6 mths. Sales dropping worldwide, autonomous drive inferiority against competition due to camera only tech while others are equipped with radar/LiDAR etc. Delay in model Y, lack of conviction on autonomous deployment roadmap, humanoid plans, etc... short Tesla.
This will further accelerate the pace of internal solution for China tech/semiconductor chip progress despite sanctions and blatant bullying by U.S. gov against China Tech companies. The action by US gov is akin to a defending champion in 100m sprint baning shoe companies from selling shoe to competitors because if compete in similar tools, they just cannot win. Short US market and long China specifically ALIBABA, SMIC (main fab for China semis), Kuaishou, Tencent.
Huawei just launched a new AI architecture system (cloudMatrix384) to rival Nvidia's NVL72 system. With continuous tech progress by tech firms, SMIC is the key beneficiary in all these by being the sole fabrication house in China via its 7nm process. It is not clear if the latest product by Huawei will be built on 7nm or there will be breakthrough in 5nm by SMIC. Necessity is the mother of creation and I believe China will succeed in this breakthrough. Long SMIC, long china tech blue chips such as ALIBABA, Kuaishou!
For US Tech stocks, ito sell into any rally or Green Day. earning will be fuzzy and likely guided down if there is any guidance at all. CAPEX will be halted or reduced given the uncertainty of the US tariff threat and chaos. China will not blink so expect zero trade with US and all the US semiconductor supply chain vendors will all be impacted by import tariffs of 145% and many might bleed immediately and if prolonged will fold. The whole re-industrialization of US is not planned well and therefore will only damage US economically hence lower GDP for sure. You can't have income from tariff and at the same time wants to re-industrialize US by forcing manufacturing back to US and at the same time still keep the USD reserve status. US needs to choose 1 and be very good at it. Also to ke
China export to U.S. is only 12.9% of its total export in 2024. For anyone to think the latest 50% tariff tit-for-tat childish gamble by Trump is going to make China cave in to his threat is a joke. When one don't produce much and yet is the largest consumer, you don't impose tariff on import. trade deficit is a result of lazy politicians who never focus on building US up through industry 4.0 and infrastructure expansion such as bullet train, green energy, battery tech and most of all the need to maintain the dollar as a reserve currency. US can't have its cake and still eat it. Either US lose its reserve currency status to boost the start of re-industrialization /reshoring of manufacturing in US, or keep the global currency status and keep buying cheap stuffs. US citizens s
Risk on? Or temporary bounce? For now, odds are better to stick with China H/A shares. Consumption boost is imminent and will be relentless when the time comes as and when the timing is right. Long China!
Nvda result tonight should beat analysts expectatio, key is guidance and with many hyperscalers committing billions into CAPEX for AI infrastructure expansion, it should gap up and drive China tech to 2-3 year high. likewise HSI should break above 24k and perhaps touch 25k again in the next 2 weeks. Cheers!
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