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2021-06-27

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Slap the Fed in the face? Bank of America: The United States will usher in "hyperinflation" in the next four years

美联储在制定货币政策时总是称“通胀是暂时的”，但是“通胀长期论者”，如美银美林全球研究部门首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett认为，这次通胀绝对不是暂时的，反而可能将持续长达四年。 Mich

Slap the Fed in the face? Bank of America: The United States will usher in "hyperinflation" in the next four years

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Bank of America: The United States will usher in \"hyperinflation\" in the next four years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113335274","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储在制定货币政策时总是称“通胀是暂时的”，但是“通胀长期论者”，如美银美林全球研究部门首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett认为，这次通胀绝对不是暂时的，反而可能将持续长达四年。\nMich","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve always calls \"inflation is temporary\" when formulating monetary policy, but \"inflation long-term theorists\", such as Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research, believe that,<b>This inflation is definitely not temporary, but may last for up to four years.</b></p><p>Michael Hartnett's reasons are twofold:</p><p>First, with the promotion of vaccines in the United States, the control of the epidemic and the general recovery of social and economic order, economic data is recovering significantly. Second, under the fiscal stimulus of money and trillions of dollars, the velocity of money circulation is also rising.<b>This will accelerate the recovery of the U.S. economy and even return to overheating</b>。 Michael Hartnett pointed out that the previously announced inflation expectation for May reached a 10-year peak, and the U.S. CPI (including food and energy inflation rates) rose to 5% in May, the largest increase since 2008, which may trigger a long-term inflation boom.</p><p>In addition, in Michael Hartnett's view,<b>Biden's \"big infrastructure plan\" will exacerbate the upward trend of inflation.</b></p><p>The two parties in the U.S. Senate have reached a consensus on a $1.2 trillion infrastructure plan. Judging from the current situation, the U.S. real estate market has been rising continuously for more than seven years, and the median existing home price reached a record high in May this year. At the same time,<b>There is also a severe labor shortage in the United States, which has led to an upward trend in labor prices.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Large companies have recently promised to raise minimum and average wages.</p><p>Overall, Michael Hartnett believes that there will be asset inflation rather than austerity in the decade beyond 2020, and real assets will outperform financial assets.</p><p>In addition, although U.S. stocks have recently hit record highs, this will gradually weaken growth with higher inflation and tougher central banks.</p><p>After the release of the FOMC interest rate resolution last week, the US Dollar Index recorded its largest single-day increase since the new crown epidemic in March last year, and long-term U.S. bond yields fell to their lowest since February.</p><p>The latest dot plot released by the Federal Reserve last Wednesday showed that more than 70% of Fed officials expect a rate hike in 2023, and more than 60% expect two rate hike in the same year.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted this week that the current inflation rate in the United States and the duration of high inflation have exceeded previously expected.</p><p>However, Powell said the Fed will not be forced to raise interest rates immediately due to inflationary pressures.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Slap the Fed in the face? 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Bank of America: The United States will usher in \"hyperinflation\" in the next four years\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-27 08:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve always calls \"inflation is temporary\" when formulating monetary policy, but \"inflation long-term theorists\", such as Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research, believe that,<b>This inflation is definitely not temporary, but may last for up to four years.</b></p><p>Michael Hartnett's reasons are twofold:</p><p>First, with the promotion of vaccines in the United States, the control of the epidemic and the general recovery of social and economic order, economic data is recovering significantly. Second, under the fiscal stimulus of money and trillions of dollars, the velocity of money circulation is also rising.<b>This will accelerate the recovery of the U.S. economy and even return to overheating</b>。 Michael Hartnett pointed out that the previously announced inflation expectation for May reached a 10-year peak, and the U.S. CPI (including food and energy inflation rates) rose to 5% in May, the largest increase since 2008, which may trigger a long-term inflation boom.</p><p>In addition, in Michael Hartnett's view,<b>Biden's \"big infrastructure plan\" will exacerbate the upward trend of inflation.</b></p><p>The two parties in the U.S. Senate have reached a consensus on a $1.2 trillion infrastructure plan. Judging from the current situation, the U.S. real estate market has been rising continuously for more than seven years, and the median existing home price reached a record high in May this year. At the same time,<b>There is also a severe labor shortage in the United States, which has led to an upward trend in labor prices.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Large companies have recently promised to raise minimum and average wages.</p><p>Overall, Michael Hartnett believes that there will be asset inflation rather than austerity in the decade beyond 2020, and real assets will outperform financial assets.</p><p>In addition, although U.S. stocks have recently hit record highs, this will gradually weaken growth with higher inflation and tougher central banks.</p><p>After the release of the FOMC interest rate resolution last week, the US Dollar Index recorded its largest single-day increase since the new crown epidemic in March last year, and long-term U.S. bond yields fell to their lowest since February.</p><p>The latest dot plot released by the Federal Reserve last Wednesday showed that more than 70% of Fed officials expect a rate hike in 2023, and more than 60% expect two rate hike in the same year.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted this week that the current inflation rate in the United States and the duration of high inflation have exceeded previously expected.</p><p>However, Powell said the Fed will not be forced to raise interest rates immediately due to inflationary pressures.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113335274","content_text":"美联储在制定货币政策时总是称“通胀是暂时的”，但是“通胀长期论者”，如美银美林全球研究部门首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett认为，这次通胀绝对不是暂时的，反而可能将持续长达四年。\nMichael Hartnett的理由有两个：\n\n 第一，随着美国疫苗的推广、疫情的控制和社会经济秩序普遍恢复，经济数据在显著恢复。第二，在货币和数万亿美元的财政刺激下，货币流通速度也在上升，\n 这将使得美国经济加速复苏，甚至恢复过热。\n\nMichael Hartnett指出，此前公布的5月通胀预期达到了10年来峰值，美国5月CPI（包括食品和能源通胀率在内）上涨至5%，创下2008年以来最大增幅，这有可能引发长期的通胀热潮。\n此外，在Michael Hartnett看来，拜登的“大基建计划”会加剧通胀的上行。\n\n 美国参议院两党已对1.2万亿美元基建计划达成一致协议。从目前情况来看，美国房地产市场已经连续上涨超过7年，今年5月份成屋价格中值已创下历史新高。\n\n与此同时，美国还出现了严重的劳动力短缺，导致劳动力价格的上行。麦当劳、美国银行等额大型企业最近纷纷承诺提高最低和平均工资。\n总的来说，Michael Hartnett认为，在2020年以后的这十年里，将出现资产通胀而不是紧缩，实物资产的表现将超过金融资产。\n此外，尽管美股近期创下历史新高，但这也会随着更高的通胀和更强硬的央行，而使增长逐渐走向疲软。\n在上周FOMC议息决议发布后，美元指数创下自去年3月新冠疫情以来单日最大涨幅，长端美债收益率跌至2月以来最低。\n美联储上周三最新公布的点阵图显示，七成以上美联储官员都预计2023年会加息，六成以上预计同年加息两次。\n美联储主席鲍威尔本周承认，目前美国的通胀率以及高通胀的持续时间超出了此前预期。\n但是，鲍威尔表示，美联储当前不会迫于通胀压力立即提高利率。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1722,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}