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飞鸟跌穴298884
2021-06-23

5 trillion funds are "hiding" from the Federal Reserve, and the inflection point of global liquidity is approaching!

“水漫金山”已经成为现实，美国资本市场上泛滥的资金正面临着无处可去的境地。

5 trillion funds are "hiding" from the Federal Reserve, and the inflection point of global liquidity is approaching!

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隨缘呗
·2021-06-23
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":129729459,"tweetId":"129729459","gmtCreate":1624398684971,"gmtModify":1703835323504,"author":{"id":3574164671299178,"idStr":"3574164671299178","authorId":3574164671299178,"authorIdStr":"3574164671299178","name":"飞鸟跌穴298884","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a86a1d7644d8cfdcbb622860fd749e7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129729459","repostId":1184471845,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184471845","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1624338169,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184471845?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 13:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"5 trillion funds are \"hiding\" from the Federal Reserve, and the inflection point of global liquidity is approaching!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184471845","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"“水漫金山”已经成为现实，美国资本市场上泛滥的资金正面临着无处可去的境地。","content":"What are institutions worried about? In the biblical story, in order to escape the great flood of the world, the animals boarded Noah's Ark and survived.Nowadays, \"flooding Jinshan\" has become a reality, and the flooding funds in the American capital market are facing the situation of nowhere to go.In recent weeks, the use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchases has set new records almost every day. As of June 18, this transaction volume reached 747.1 billion US dollars (about 4.8 trillion yuan), and the scale of the previous day was as high as 756 billion US dollars, which is rare in history.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35d704eca454097f1c1fd735cad294c9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The previous record was $485.3 billion on May 27, and the last record was $476 billion at the end of December 2015.The increasingly high scale of reverse repurchase is precisely the serious excess liquidity going to Noah's Ark.1. Reverse repurchase surges, what are institutions worried about?The reverse repurchase in the United States is just the opposite of that in China. Financial institutions purchase bond securities from the Federal Reserve, which is equivalent to the central bank recovering part of market liquidity. The initiator of the transaction is financial institutions. The situation of \"muzzle guidance\" cannot be said to do not exist, but it is rare in history.In other words, financial institutions are voluntarily returning some liquidity to the central bank, and this willingness is getting stronger and stronger.There are three direct reasons for this phenomenon:First, the reduction of the Federal Reserve's TGA account has accelerated the investment of liquidity into the market in the short term。TGA-The Treasury General Account can be simply understood as the deposit account opened by the U.S. Treasury Department in the central bank. This account does not create additional new liquidity, but stores part of the liquidity brought by the Federal Reserve's QE.During the epidemic last year, the Federal Reserve's TGA account climbed from less than US $500 billion to more than US $1.7 trillion. Since March this year, the Ministry of Finance has begun to significantly reduce pressure and \"transfuse blood\" into the banking system, with the goal of reducing the cash balance in the account by the end of July. to $450 billion. As of early June, about $940 billion had been released.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9d8018820ef426e4f3872833bd62fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Second, the June FOMC meeting raised the reverse repurchase rate by 5 BP to 0.05%.After more than a year of large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus, the assets under management of the federal government money market fund exceeded $4 trillion for the first time last month, and its investment was limited to Treasury Bond, which caused too many funds to pour into short-term Treasury Bond and other securities assets in the near future; On the other hand, the U.S. Treasury Department has recently reduced the issuance of short-term Treasury Bond.With demand exceeding supply, some short-term Treasury Bond yields have fallen to 0% in the near future, and are expected to move towards negative territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1732c6801df2cc0e7ffdb2ad11943391\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This has the big money turning their sights to the Fed's overnight reverse repo, although before the FOMC meeting, this rate was 0%.Third, seasonal adjustment.Conventionally speaking, the surge of overnight reverse repurchases often occurs at the end of the quarter, because Basel III requires financial institutions to temporarily shrink their balance sheets to comply with the norms.In March, the Federal Reserve announced that the SLR exemption would not be renewed, and regulatory standards were improved. Launching an overnight reverse repurchase application to the Federal Reserve can effectively take deposits off the balance sheet and achieve the purpose of reducing total leverage.To sum up,The flood of liquidity has put great pressure on short-term interest rates. Financial institutions have chosen to lock in some cash at reverse repurchase rates due to concerns about negative interest rates. The increase in interest rates at the FOMC meeting has further stimulated the expansion of trading volume。In the Interest Rate Corridor set by the Federal Reserve, the upper limit is the excess deposit reserve rate, and the lower limit is the overnight reverse repurchase rate, because commercial banks are not willing to lend in the market at interest rates lower than those that can be obtained by directly depositing cash with the Federal Reserve. So, as Powell said at the press conference, overnight reverse repos \"worked well... to protect the interest rate floor.\"At present, the demand for tools to control short-term interest rates has reached new highs continuously. No matter what Fed officials say, it indicates that a liquidity tightening is approaching.2. How far is the inflection point of liquidity?Croce said that all history is contemporary history.The present and the past may be different in details, but the logic of things remains the same.Since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1914, this is the third time that funds have launched a large-scale \"attack\" on overnight reverse repurchases, most recently in 2013. At that time, the economy entered the recovery channel but the unemployment rate was still around 7%, while inflation was expected to be strong, and short-term market interest rates continued to fall under pressure, which was generally the same as it is now.The scale of reverse repurchase that began at the end of 2013 has surged all the way, reaching its peak in December 2016. Major events experienced in the middle include: in February 2014, the Federal Reserve made it clear that it would withdraw from QE in the autumn of that year, and announced a rate hike on December 16, 2015.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9561b4c095ecbae6c3ec18367deb73\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, the change of reverse repurchase runs through the entire rate hike cycle, and it is not surprising that it is regarded as a signal that the turning point of liquidity is coming.Rate hike expectations rise, discuss, release signals, announce implementation, is the consistent process of the Fed's policy change. The figure of reverse repurchase is not enough to predict when the QE exit or rate hike time will come, but it undoubtedly represents that the most dovish period has passed.If it is already at the bottom of the valley, the next step will be upward.The June FOMC meeting released a \"hawkish\" signal. The dot plot shows that 13 of 18 officials support at least one rate hike before the end of 2023, compared with 7 in March; Eleven officials expect at least two rate hike by the end of 2023; Seven commissioners are expected to start rate hike in 2022.Referring to the past few rate hike processes, the most panicked period for the market is often the period from the clear tightening signal to the formal implementation, and before the signal is confirmed, worries have begun to dominate the market. During the panic in 2013, risk-free interest rates (mainly short-term Treasury Bond) rose significantly, the US Dollar Index rose, emerging market stock markets plummeted, and the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver plummeted.The risk appetite of investors in the market can be roughly divided into\"Bitcoin-Commodities-Stock Market-Reverse Repurchase\"。 Obviously, the current wind bias of investors is gradually declining. First, the cryptocurrency collapsed, and BTC fell from 60,000 US dollars to more than 30,000 US dollars; The commodity bubble is also constantly being squeezed out. LME copper fell more than 13% from a high of $10,700. U.S. stocks fluctuated at high levels, and reverse repurchase transactions surged.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/825c1bd33decd250ca5600a35a173af6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As the conditions of the liquidity tightening gradually mature, the market will gradually reduce the wind bias, and this impact will be transmitted to the stock market along the chain. The impact may not be trending, but there will still be pressure on high-valued stocks, similar to that in February. The wave of killing.Before the inflection point comes, the panic caused by expectations is the main factor affecting asset prices.3. ConclusionEveryone understands that the inflection point of global liquidity will eventually come, but when it will land depends only on the Federal Reserve, not even on inflation.\"Don't go against the Fed\" doesn't mean that you can continue to chase higher in casinos. Don't forget, even in China, where liquidity is the first to turn, liquidity is still plentiful, and stability is only maintained in stages. Once the inflection point signal is established, it is reasonable logic to have another wave of killing to complete the value return.Charlie Munger once said that if I knew where I would die, I would never go there. But the only lesson history has taught people is that people have never learned any lessons in history, and most people feel that they will not be the last receiver.In the cold winter, survival is more important than anything else.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 trillion funds are \"hiding\" from the Federal Reserve, and the inflection point of global liquidity is approaching!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 trillion funds are \"hiding\" from the Federal Reserve, and the inflection point of global liquidity is approaching!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n格隆汇投资学苑 \n2021-06-22 13:02\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWhat are institutions worried about? In the biblical story, in order to escape the great flood of the world, the animals boarded Noah's Ark and survived.Nowadays, \"flooding Jinshan\" has become a reality, and the flooding funds in the American capital market are facing the situation of nowhere to go.In recent weeks, the use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchases has set new records almost every day. As of June 18, this transaction volume reached 747.1 billion US dollars (about 4.8 trillion yuan), and the scale of the previous day was as high as 756 billion US dollars, which is rare in history.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35d704eca454097f1c1fd735cad294c9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The previous record was $485.3 billion on May 27, and the last record was $476 billion at the end of December 2015.The increasingly high scale of reverse repurchase is precisely the serious excess liquidity going to Noah's Ark.1. Reverse repurchase surges, what are institutions worried about?The reverse repurchase in the United States is just the opposite of that in China. Financial institutions purchase bond securities from the Federal Reserve, which is equivalent to the central bank recovering part of market liquidity. The initiator of the transaction is financial institutions. The situation of \"muzzle guidance\" cannot be said to do not exist, but it is rare in history.In other words, financial institutions are voluntarily returning some liquidity to the central bank, and this willingness is getting stronger and stronger.There are three direct reasons for this phenomenon:First, the reduction of the Federal Reserve's TGA account has accelerated the investment of liquidity into the market in the short term。TGA-The Treasury General Account can be simply understood as the deposit account opened by the U.S. Treasury Department in the central bank. This account does not create additional new liquidity, but stores part of the liquidity brought by the Federal Reserve's QE.During the epidemic last year, the Federal Reserve's TGA account climbed from less than US $500 billion to more than US $1.7 trillion. Since March this year, the Ministry of Finance has begun to significantly reduce pressure and \"transfuse blood\" into the banking system, with the goal of reducing the cash balance in the account by the end of July. to $450 billion. As of early June, about $940 billion had been released.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9d8018820ef426e4f3872833bd62fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Second, the June FOMC meeting raised the reverse repurchase rate by 5 BP to 0.05%.After more than a year of large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus, the assets under management of the federal government money market fund exceeded $4 trillion for the first time last month, and its investment was limited to Treasury Bond, which caused too many funds to pour into short-term Treasury Bond and other securities assets in the near future; On the other hand, the U.S. Treasury Department has recently reduced the issuance of short-term Treasury Bond.With demand exceeding supply, some short-term Treasury Bond yields have fallen to 0% in the near future, and are expected to move towards negative territory.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1732c6801df2cc0e7ffdb2ad11943391\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This has the big money turning their sights to the Fed's overnight reverse repo, although before the FOMC meeting, this rate was 0%.Third, seasonal adjustment.Conventionally speaking, the surge of overnight reverse repurchases often occurs at the end of the quarter, because Basel III requires financial institutions to temporarily shrink their balance sheets to comply with the norms.In March, the Federal Reserve announced that the SLR exemption would not be renewed, and regulatory standards were improved. Launching an overnight reverse repurchase application to the Federal Reserve can effectively take deposits off the balance sheet and achieve the purpose of reducing total leverage.To sum up,The flood of liquidity has put great pressure on short-term interest rates. Financial institutions have chosen to lock in some cash at reverse repurchase rates due to concerns about negative interest rates. The increase in interest rates at the FOMC meeting has further stimulated the expansion of trading volume。In the Interest Rate Corridor set by the Federal Reserve, the upper limit is the excess deposit reserve rate, and the lower limit is the overnight reverse repurchase rate, because commercial banks are not willing to lend in the market at interest rates lower than those that can be obtained by directly depositing cash with the Federal Reserve. So, as Powell said at the press conference, overnight reverse repos \"worked well... to protect the interest rate floor.\"At present, the demand for tools to control short-term interest rates has reached new highs continuously. No matter what Fed officials say, it indicates that a liquidity tightening is approaching.2. How far is the inflection point of liquidity?Croce said that all history is contemporary history.The present and the past may be different in details, but the logic of things remains the same.Since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1914, this is the third time that funds have launched a large-scale \"attack\" on overnight reverse repurchases, most recently in 2013. At that time, the economy entered the recovery channel but the unemployment rate was still around 7%, while inflation was expected to be strong, and short-term market interest rates continued to fall under pressure, which was generally the same as it is now.The scale of reverse repurchase that began at the end of 2013 has surged all the way, reaching its peak in December 2016. Major events experienced in the middle include: in February 2014, the Federal Reserve made it clear that it would withdraw from QE in the autumn of that year, and announced a rate hike on December 16, 2015.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9561b4c095ecbae6c3ec18367deb73\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, the change of reverse repurchase runs through the entire rate hike cycle, and it is not surprising that it is regarded as a signal that the turning point of liquidity is coming.Rate hike expectations rise, discuss, release signals, announce implementation, is the consistent process of the Fed's policy change. The figure of reverse repurchase is not enough to predict when the QE exit or rate hike time will come, but it undoubtedly represents that the most dovish period has passed.If it is already at the bottom of the valley, the next step will be upward.The June FOMC meeting released a \"hawkish\" signal. The dot plot shows that 13 of 18 officials support at least one rate hike before the end of 2023, compared with 7 in March; Eleven officials expect at least two rate hike by the end of 2023; Seven commissioners are expected to start rate hike in 2022.Referring to the past few rate hike processes, the most panicked period for the market is often the period from the clear tightening signal to the formal implementation, and before the signal is confirmed, worries have begun to dominate the market. During the panic in 2013, risk-free interest rates (mainly short-term Treasury Bond) rose significantly, the US Dollar Index rose, emerging market stock markets plummeted, and the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver plummeted.The risk appetite of investors in the market can be roughly divided into\"Bitcoin-Commodities-Stock Market-Reverse Repurchase\"。 Obviously, the current wind bias of investors is gradually declining. First, the cryptocurrency collapsed, and BTC fell from 60,000 US dollars to more than 30,000 US dollars; The commodity bubble is also constantly being squeezed out. LME copper fell more than 13% from a high of $10,700. U.S. stocks fluctuated at high levels, and reverse repurchase transactions surged.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/825c1bd33decd250ca5600a35a173af6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As the conditions of the liquidity tightening gradually mature, the market will gradually reduce the wind bias, and this impact will be transmitted to the stock market along the chain. The impact may not be trending, but there will still be pressure on high-valued stocks, similar to that in February. The wave of killing.Before the inflection point comes, the panic caused by expectations is the main factor affecting asset prices.3. ConclusionEveryone understands that the inflection point of global liquidity will eventually come, but when it will land depends only on the Federal Reserve, not even on inflation.\"Don't go against the Fed\" doesn't mean that you can continue to chase higher in casinos. Don't forget, even in China, where liquidity is the first to turn, liquidity is still plentiful, and stability is only maintained in stages. Once the inflection point signal is established, it is reasonable logic to have another wave of killing to complete the value return.Charlie Munger once said that if I knew where I would die, I would never go there. But the only lesson history has taught people is that people have never learned any lessons in history, and most people feel that they will not be the last receiver.In the cold winter, survival is more important than anything else.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184471845","content_text":"机构在担心什么？\n\n在圣经的故事中，为了躲避旷世的大洪灾，动物们登上了诺亚方舟得以幸免于难。\n如今，“水漫金山”已经成为现实，美国资本市场上泛滥的资金正面临着无处可去的境地。\n近几周，美联储的隔夜逆回购的使用量几乎每天都在刷新历史记录。截止到6月18日，这一交易额达到了7471亿美元（约合人民币4.8万亿元），前一天的规模更是高达7560亿美元，历史罕见。\n\n前一次创纪录是5月27日的4853亿美元，再上一次则要追溯到2015年12月末的4760亿美元。\n日益高企的逆回购规模，正是严重过剩的流动性在奔赴“诺亚方舟”。\n1、逆回购激增，机构在担心什么？\n美国的逆回购和中国恰好相反，是由金融机构向美联储购债证券，相当于央行回收一部分市场流动性，而交易的发起方是金融机构，“枪口指导”的情况不能说不存在，但历史上并不多见。\n换言之，金融机构在主动交还给央行一部分流动性，并且这个意愿愈发强烈。\n导致这一现象的直接原因有三：\n第一，美联储TGA账户削减，造成短期内流动性加速投向市场。\nTGA——The Treasury General Account，可以简单地理解为美国财政部在中央银行开设的存款账户，这一账户并不会额外创造新的流动性，而是储存一部分美联储QE带来的流动性。\n去年疫情期间美联储TGA账户从不到5000亿美元攀升至超过1.7万亿美元，今年3月份以来，财政部开始大幅压降，向银行体系“输血”，目标是7月末将账户上的现金余额缩减为4500亿美元。截止到6月初，已释放约9400亿美元。\n\n第二，6月FOMC会议将逆回购利率上调5个BP至0.05％。\n经过一年多的大规模货币和财政刺激，联邦政府货币市场基金的管理资产在上个月首次超过4万亿美元，而其投资又仅限于国债，这使得太多的资金于近期涌入短期国债和其他证券资产；另一方面，美国财政部近期减少了短期国债发行规模。\n供不应求之下，一些短期国债收益率在近期跌至0%，并且预期在向负值行进。\n\n这使得大资金将目光转向了美联储的隔夜逆回购，尽管在FOMC会议之前，这一利率为0%。\n第三，季节性调整。常规而言，季度末往往也会发生隔夜逆回购激增的现象，因为巴塞尔协定III要求，金融机构需要暂时收缩资产负债表以符合规范。\n3月份美联储宣布SLR豁免不续作，监管标准提高，而向美联储发起隔夜逆回购申请可以有效使得存款脱表，达到降低总杠杆的目的。\n总结下来就是，流动性泛滥对短期利率造成极大的压力，金融机构出于对负利率的担忧，选择以逆回购利率锁定一部分现金，而FOMC会议上调利率进一步刺激了交易量的扩大。\n美联储设定的利率走廊中，上限是超额存款准备金利率，下限则是隔夜逆回购利率，因为商业银行不会愿意在市场上以低于直接将现金存放在美联储所能获得的利率放贷。因此，正如鲍威尔在记者会上所说，隔夜逆回购“很好地发挥了作用……保护了利率下限”。\n当前，控制短期利率的工具需求用量连续创新高，无论美联储官员表态如何，都预示着流动性收紧的临近。\n2、流动性拐点还有多远？\n克罗齐说，一切历史都是当代史。当下和过去，或许在细枝末节上会有所不同，但事物运行的逻辑万变不离其宗。\n自1914年美联储成立以来，这是第三次资金在隔夜逆回购上发动大规模“攻击”，最近的一次是2013年。当时，经济进入复苏通道但失业率尚在7%附近，而通胀出现较强的预期，短期市场利率不断承压下降，大体上和现在如出一辙。\n2013年末开始的逆回购规模一路激增，在2016年12月达到峰值，中间经历的重大事件包括：2014年2月美联储明确表示将于当年秋季退出QE，2015年12月16日宣布加息。\n\n也就是说，逆回购的异动贯穿整个加息周期，被当成流动性拐点即将到来的信号也不足为奇。\n加息预期抬升、讨论、释放信号、宣布实施，是美联储政策转变的一贯流程，逆回购的数字并不足以预测QE退出或者加息时点会在什么时候到来，但毫无疑问代表着最鸽派的时期已经过去。\n如果已经在谷底了，接下来怎么都是向上。\n6月FOMC会议释放“鹰派”信号。点阵图显示，18位官员中有13人支持在2023年底前至少加息一次，而3月为7位；11位官员预计到2023年底至少加息两次；7名委员预计在2022年开始加息。\n参考过去几次加息流程，市场最恐慌的时期往往是在明确发出收紧信号到正式实施的一段时间，而在信号得到确定之前，担忧情绪已经开始主导市场。2013年的恐慌期间，无风险利率（主要是短期国债）明显上行，美元指数走高，新兴市场股市暴跌，黄金、白银等贵金属价格大跌。\n市场中投资者的风险偏好按照等级，大致可以分为“比特币—大宗商品—股市—逆回购”。显然，当前投资者的风偏正在逐渐下降，先是加密货币崩盘，BTC从6万美元跌至3万多美元；大宗商品的泡沫也在不断挤出，LME铜从10700美元高位跌超13%，美股在高位震荡，逆回购交易激增。\n\n随着流动性收紧的条件逐渐成熟，市场将慢慢降低风偏，这一影响将会顺着链条传导到股市中，影响可能不是趋势性的，但高估值股票仍然会有压力，类似于2月份那波下杀。\n在拐点来临之前，预期带来的恐慌是影响资产价格的主因。\n3、结语\n所有人都明白，全球流动性拐点终将到来，但何时落地，只在于美联储，甚至不在于通胀。\n“不要和美联储作对”，并不意味着可以继续在赌场追高。别忘了，即使是流动性最先转弯的中国，流动性依然是宽裕的，阶段性维稳而已。一旦拐点信号确立，再来一波下杀完成价值回归，才是合理的逻辑。\n查理·芒格曾说，如果我知道自己会在哪里死去，我就永远都不去那儿。但历史给人的唯一教训，就是人们从未在历史中吸取过任何教训，大多数人都觉得，自己不会成为最后一个接盘侠。\n在寒冬将至的时候，活下来比任何事都重要。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2820,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":4965029,"commentId":"4965029","gmtCreate":1624408895002,"gmtModify":1663229761647,"authorId":3578402372027784,"author":{"id":3578402372027784,"idStr":"3578402372027784","authorId":3578402372027784,"name":"隨缘呗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d112fbb709c85fd78977ffa119acab4d","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":129729459,"objectIdStr":"129729459","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"[惊讶]","text":"[惊讶]","html":"[惊讶]","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}