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飞鸟跌穴298884
2021-07-14

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U.S. inflation continues to fever, and it's time to test the Fed

美国6月物价再度爆表，美联储的“通胀暂时论”还能否站得住脚，以及货币政策将如何作出应对，成为市场关注的焦点。北京时间周二晚间公布的数据显示，美国6月CPI及核心CPI环比、同比均高于预期及前值，多项数据创新高。今年以来，美国通胀节节走高，但美联储一直坚称物价上涨只是“暂时的”，随着疫情封锁进一步放松、供应赶上被压抑的需求，通胀将消退。当地时间周三和周四，美联储主席鲍威尔将接受国会议员的质询。

U.S. inflation continues to fever, and it's time to test the Fed

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隨缘呗
·2021-07-16
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":144020889,"tweetId":"144020889","gmtCreate":1626254764641,"gmtModify":1703756424849,"author":{"id":3574164671299178,"idStr":"3574164671299178","authorId":3574164671299178,"authorIdStr":"3574164671299178","name":"飞鸟跌穴298884","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a86a1d7644d8cfdcbb622860fd749e7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>?</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>?</p></body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144020889","repostId":2151593458,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151593458","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626228999,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151593458?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-14 10:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. inflation continues to fever, and it's time to test the Fed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151593458","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国6月物价再度爆表，美联储的“通胀暂时论”还能否站得住脚，以及货币政策将如何作出应对，成为市场关注的焦点。北京时间周二晚间公布的数据显示，美国6月CPI及核心CPI环比、同比均高于预期及前值，多项数据创新高。今年以来，美国通胀节节走高，但美联储一直坚称物价上涨只是“暂时的”，随着疫情封锁进一步放松、供应赶上被压抑的需求，通胀将消退。当地时间周三和周四，美联储主席鲍威尔将接受国会议员的质询。","content":"<p>Prices in the United States exploded again in June. Whether the Federal Reserve's \"temporary inflation theory\" can still be tenable and how monetary policy will respond has become the focus of market attention.</p><p>Data released on Tuesday evening, Beijing time, showed that the U.S. CPI and core CPI in June were both higher than expected and previous values month-on-month and year-on-year, and many data hit new highs. Among them, CPI rose by 5.4% year-on-year, the highest increase since August 2008, much higher than the 5% increase in May and the 4.9% increase previously predicted by economists.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1c1b19fafe4fccf8df811ab9531e0be\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p>Industries directly affected by the pandemic saw the biggest price increases, with travel-related expenses such as air tickets soaring, and semiconductor shortages also sending used car prices soaring. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, used car prices rose 10.5% month-on-month in June, contributing one-third of last month's CPI increase.</p><p>After the data was released, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate hike rose sharply, U.S. bond yields jumped intraday, and the yield curve flattened. Under the threat of inflation, the dollar strengthened further, approaching a three-month high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e83a31c11d1be5a229daf643f2d3ae\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p><h2>Challenges for the Fed</h2>U.S. inflation has been rising steadily this year, but the Federal Reserve has insisted that price increases are only \"temporary\" and will subside as epidemic lockdowns are further eased and supply catches up with pent-up demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce1f249aafa91beb78c3bda811d915d\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed predicted that its favored gauge of core inflation would rise 3% this year and fall back to 2.1% in 2022.</p><p>In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals that surprised the market last month, suggesting that there will be two rate hike in 2023. The minutes of the meeting showed that the Fed has begun to discuss the Taper matter within, but no consensus can be reached, and the discussion will continue in the future.</p><p>But Tuesday's unexpectedly high inflation data could put pressure on the Fed to consider reducing asset purchases at a faster pace than previously expected, slowing monetary stimulus.</p><p>St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard said on Tuesday that as the U.S. economy grows at a rate of 7% and the epidemic is getting better and better under control, it is now time to lift the Fed's stimulus measures. Bullard has always been known as a \"dove\", and his hawkish remarks have aroused great concern in the market.</p><p>But the New York Fed president<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>On Monday, the U.S. economy has not yet reached the conditions for the Federal Reserve to reduce the scale of asset purchases. San Francisco Fed President Daly also warned on Friday that premature withdrawal from the stimulus plan would pose great risks as the Delta variant strain continues to spread.</p><p>On Wednesday and Thursday local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be questioned by members of Congress. Investors will pay close attention to whether Powell will signal that he will start discussing tapering asset purchases at the July Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Dutch International</a>James Knightley, chief international economist at the Group (ING), said that there seems to be no reason for the Fed to continue its quantitative easing plan of buying $120 billion in assets per month, and we will look for hints about impending tapering from Powell's testimony and the August Jackson Hole meeting.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>Analysts wrote in a note on Tuesday that if the Fed sticks to its average inflation target, putting the rate hike ahead of market expectations, it could mean increased interest rate volatility in the future.</p><p>Wells Fargo analysts pointed out that the Fed will face more challenges in communication in the future. On the one hand, it hopes to continue to be patient; on the other hand, the market does not seem to \"buy\" the Fed's new strategy to deal with inflation. These contradictions should aggravate the future volatility of macro markets.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. inflation continues to fever, and it's time to test the Fed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. inflation continues to fever, and it's time to test the Fed\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-14 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Prices in the United States exploded again in June. Whether the Federal Reserve's \"temporary inflation theory\" can still be tenable and how monetary policy will respond has become the focus of market attention.</p><p>Data released on Tuesday evening, Beijing time, showed that the U.S. CPI and core CPI in June were both higher than expected and previous values month-on-month and year-on-year, and many data hit new highs. Among them, CPI rose by 5.4% year-on-year, the highest increase since August 2008, much higher than the 5% increase in May and the 4.9% increase previously predicted by economists.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1c1b19fafe4fccf8df811ab9531e0be\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p>Industries directly affected by the pandemic saw the biggest price increases, with travel-related expenses such as air tickets soaring, and semiconductor shortages also sending used car prices soaring. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, used car prices rose 10.5% month-on-month in June, contributing one-third of last month's CPI increase.</p><p>After the data was released, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate hike rose sharply, U.S. bond yields jumped intraday, and the yield curve flattened. Under the threat of inflation, the dollar strengthened further, approaching a three-month high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e83a31c11d1be5a229daf643f2d3ae\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Zerohedge)</p><p><h2>Challenges for the Fed</h2>U.S. inflation has been rising steadily this year, but the Federal Reserve has insisted that price increases are only \"temporary\" and will subside as epidemic lockdowns are further eased and supply catches up with pent-up demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce1f249aafa91beb78c3bda811d915d\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed predicted that its favored gauge of core inflation would rise 3% this year and fall back to 2.1% in 2022.</p><p>In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve released hawkish signals that surprised the market last month, suggesting that there will be two rate hike in 2023. The minutes of the meeting showed that the Fed has begun to discuss the Taper matter within, but no consensus can be reached, and the discussion will continue in the future.</p><p>But Tuesday's unexpectedly high inflation data could put pressure on the Fed to consider reducing asset purchases at a faster pace than previously expected, slowing monetary stimulus.</p><p>St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard said on Tuesday that as the U.S. economy grows at a rate of 7% and the epidemic is getting better and better under control, it is now time to lift the Fed's stimulus measures. Bullard has always been known as a \"dove\", and his hawkish remarks have aroused great concern in the market.</p><p>But the New York Fed president<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>On Monday, the U.S. economy has not yet reached the conditions for the Federal Reserve to reduce the scale of asset purchases. San Francisco Fed President Daly also warned on Friday that premature withdrawal from the stimulus plan would pose great risks as the Delta variant strain continues to spread.</p><p>On Wednesday and Thursday local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be questioned by members of Congress. Investors will pay close attention to whether Powell will signal that he will start discussing tapering asset purchases at the July Federal Reserve meeting.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Dutch International</a>James Knightley, chief international economist at the Group (ING), said that there seems to be no reason for the Fed to continue its quantitative easing plan of buying $120 billion in assets per month, and we will look for hints about impending tapering from Powell's testimony and the August Jackson Hole meeting.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>Analysts wrote in a note on Tuesday that if the Fed sticks to its average inflation target, putting the rate hike ahead of market expectations, it could mean increased interest rate volatility in the future.</p><p>Wells Fargo analysts pointed out that the Fed will face more challenges in communication in the future. On the one hand, it hopes to continue to be patient; on the other hand, the market does not seem to \"buy\" the Fed's new strategy to deal with inflation. These contradictions should aggravate the future volatility of macro markets.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635336\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd1549a90968778a7afdc56cd660b1b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635336","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151593458","content_text":"美国6月物价再度爆表，美联储的“通胀暂时论”还能否站得住脚，以及货币政策将如何作出应对，成为市场关注的焦点。\n北京时间周二晚间公布的数据显示，美国6月CPI及核心CPI环比、同比均高于预期及前值，多项数据创新高。其中CPI同比上涨5.4%，创下2008年8月以来的最高涨幅，远高于5月份的5%和经济学家此前预测的4.9%的涨幅。\n\n（图片来源：Zerohedge）\n受疫情直接影响的行业的价格涨幅最大，机票等差旅相关费用飙升，半导体短缺也导致二手车价格飙升。美国劳工统计局的数据显示，6月二手车价格环比上涨了10.5%，贡献了上个月CPI上涨的三分之一涨幅。\n数据公布后，市场对美联储加息预期陡升，美债收益率盘中跃升，收益率曲线趋平。通胀威胁下，美元进一步走强，逼近三个月来高位。\n\n（图片来源：Zerohedge）\n美联储面临的挑战\n今年以来，美国通胀节节走高，但美联储一直坚称物价上涨只是“暂时的”，随着疫情封锁进一步放松、供应赶上被压抑的需求，通胀将消退。\n\n在6月的FOMC会议上，美联储预测，其青睐的核心通胀指标今年将上升3%，2022年将回落至2.1%。\n货币政策方面，美联储上月释放出令市场意外的鹰派信号，暗示2023年会有两次加息。会议纪要显示，美联储内部已经开始讨论Taper事宜，不过无法达成共识，未来将继续讨论。\n但周二意外高企的通胀数据可能会给美联储带来压力，迫使其考虑以比此前预期更快的速度减少资产购买，从而放缓货币刺激。\n美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德周二表示，随着美国经济以7%的速度增长，以及疫情得到越来越好的控制，现在是取消美联储的刺激措施了。布拉德一直以来以“鸽派”著称，他的鹰派言论引发了市场高度关注。\n但纽约联储行长威廉姆斯周一称，美国经济尚未达到美联储减少资产购买规模的条件。旧金山联储总裁戴利也在上周五警告，由于Delta变种毒株持续蔓延，过早退出刺激计划将造成极大的风险。\n当地时间周三和周四，美联储主席鲍威尔将接受国会议员的质询。投资者将密切关注鲍威尔会否释放在7月美联储会议上开始讨论缩减资产购买规模的信号。\n荷兰国际集团(ING)首席国际经济学家James Knightley表示，美联储似乎没有理由继续每月购买1200亿美元资产的量化宽松计划，我们将从鲍威尔的证词以及8月杰克逊霍尔会议上寻找有关即将缩减规模的暗示。\n富国银行分析们在周二的一份报告中写道，如果美联储坚守平均通胀目标，使得加息的时点超过市场预期，那么这可能意味着未来利率波动将加剧。\n富国分析师们指出，未来美联储在沟通方面将面临更多挑战，一方面它希望能够继续保持耐心，另一方面市场对美联储对待通胀的新策略似乎并不“买账”，这些矛盾应该会加剧宏观市场未来的波动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QID":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2622,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5235111,"commentId":"5235111","gmtCreate":1626399160451,"gmtModify":1663231042240,"authorId":3578402372027784,"author":{"id":3578402372027784,"idStr":"3578402372027784","authorId":3578402372027784,"name":"隨缘呗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d112fbb709c85fd78977ffa119acab4d","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":144020889,"objectIdStr":"144020889","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}