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2021-07-12

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U.S. inflation outlook for June: High fever may be difficult to subside

美国6月CPI或居高不下，主要受到食品汽油价格、低端收入上涨和车价上行带领。

U.S. inflation outlook for June: High fever may be difficult to subside

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Thanks","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146460358","repostId":2150533008,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150533008","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626095884,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2150533008?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-12 21:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. inflation outlook for June: High fever may be difficult to subside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150533008","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国6月CPI或居高不下，主要受到食品汽油价格、低端收入上涨和车价上行带领。","content":"The U.S. Department of Labor will release inflation data for June tomorrow evening, Beijing time. Last month, the U.S. CPI rose 5% year-on-year, and the growth rate hit a 13-year high; Core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, hitting a 28-year high. Is last month's inflation the peak of the year?Judging from the inflation balance expectation represented by the US Treasury Bond interest rate, it peaked in mid-May. From the high of 2.54% to the current 2.22%, it has dropped by 0.32 percentage points. At the same time, the base effect in June will also ease by 0.5 percentage points. But will U.S. inflation subside in June?I'm afraid not yet.Judging from the main expectations of research institutions: the U.S. CPI may remain high in June. Month-on-month, it will record a 0.5% increase this month after rising 0.8% in May. YoY CPI increased by 4.9-5%, almost the same as the May high. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 4% year-on-year, the largest increase in nearly 30 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8696f0cf9e7fa892316808daf9fc2555\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc9c9ea03ac85f748941fca18fa4293\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Note: The picture above shows that the median CPI of Wall Street's inflation forecast is 5%, which is the same as last month; The median core CPI was 3.9%, slightly above the previous month's level.The driving forces to promote the upward trend of CPI mainly include the following aspects:1. Rising food and gasoline pricesFactors such as constrained supply, cost pass-on pressure from food producers, and the intensified \"drought\" in western states of the United States are jointly pushing up food prices in the American market. Business Insider, an American media, published a list of the most serious shortages currently experiencing in the United States. These products include computer chips, palm oil, chicken, bacon and hot dogs, imported foods (such as cheese, coffee and olive oil), corn and dozens of other products. Supplies closely related to American economic life. In addition, the continued rise in gasoline prices has also made transportation costs more expensive across the United States.2. Wages for low-income workers have risen sharplyAs the current employment contradiction intensifies, the latest signs of strong wage growth in low-income fields are shocking: Atlanta Fed research shows that production and unregulated wages in the leisure and hospitality industries have risen by 8.25% this year, and the wage increase of newly hired workers in low-income services is particularly strong. According to a survey by the New York Fed, workers who normally earn less than $60,000 a year said they would take a job if they were paid 26% more than before the pandemic.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The study noted that labor-intensive low-wage industries shifted almost all of their labor costs to inflation. Every 1% increase in low-end wages will push the core inflation rate up by 5-15 basis points, and this is still a moderate degree, without taking into account the unexpected increase in wages.3. New and used car prices continue to riseResearch firm J.D. According to Power data, about three-quarters of all vehicles sold in the United States in mid-June sold at or above the suggested retail price of U.S. automakers, up from 67% at the end of May. During the same period, Manheim's wholesale used car value index continued to be 36% higher than the same period last year, and its growth rate once exceeded 50% in April.Overall, supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages amid demand recovery remain the main driving forces of exacerbating inflationary pressures.","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. inflation outlook for June: High fever may be difficult to subside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. inflation outlook for June: High fever may be difficult to subside\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-07-12 21:18\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. Department of Labor will release inflation data for June tomorrow evening, Beijing time. Last month, the U.S. CPI rose 5% year-on-year, and the growth rate hit a 13-year high; Core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, hitting a 28-year high. Is last month's inflation the peak of the year?Judging from the inflation balance expectation represented by the US Treasury Bond interest rate, it peaked in mid-May. From the high of 2.54% to the current 2.22%, it has dropped by 0.32 percentage points. At the same time, the base effect in June will also ease by 0.5 percentage points. But will U.S. inflation subside in June?I'm afraid not yet.Judging from the main expectations of research institutions: the U.S. CPI may remain high in June. Month-on-month, it will record a 0.5% increase this month after rising 0.8% in May. YoY CPI increased by 4.9-5%, almost the same as the May high. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 4% year-on-year, the largest increase in nearly 30 years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8696f0cf9e7fa892316808daf9fc2555\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc9c9ea03ac85f748941fca18fa4293\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Note: The picture above shows that the median CPI of Wall Street's inflation forecast is 5%, which is the same as last month; The median core CPI was 3.9%, slightly above the previous month's level.The driving forces to promote the upward trend of CPI mainly include the following aspects:1. Rising food and gasoline pricesFactors such as constrained supply, cost pass-on pressure from food producers, and the intensified \"drought\" in western states of the United States are jointly pushing up food prices in the American market. Business Insider, an American media, published a list of the most serious shortages currently experiencing in the United States. These products include computer chips, palm oil, chicken, bacon and hot dogs, imported foods (such as cheese, coffee and olive oil), corn and dozens of other products. Supplies closely related to American economic life. In addition, the continued rise in gasoline prices has also made transportation costs more expensive across the United States.2. Wages for low-income workers have risen sharplyAs the current employment contradiction intensifies, the latest signs of strong wage growth in low-income fields are shocking: Atlanta Fed research shows that production and unregulated wages in the leisure and hospitality industries have risen by 8.25% this year, and the wage increase of newly hired workers in low-income services is particularly strong. According to a survey by the New York Fed, workers who normally earn less than $60,000 a year said they would take a job if they were paid 26% more than before the pandemic.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The study noted that labor-intensive low-wage industries shifted almost all of their labor costs to inflation. Every 1% increase in low-end wages will push the core inflation rate up by 5-15 basis points, and this is still a moderate degree, without taking into account the unexpected increase in wages.3. New and used car prices continue to riseResearch firm J.D. According to Power data, about three-quarters of all vehicles sold in the United States in mid-June sold at or above the suggested retail price of U.S. automakers, up from 67% at the end of May. During the same period, Manheim's wholesale used car value index continued to be 36% higher than the same period last year, and its growth rate once exceeded 50% in April.Overall, supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages amid demand recovery remain the main driving forces of exacerbating inflationary pressures.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635187\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd1549a90968778a7afdc56cd660b1b","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635187","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150533008","content_text":"美国劳工部将于北京时间明日晚间公布6月通胀数据，上月美国CPI同比涨5%，增速创13年新高；核心CPI同比涨3.8%，创28年以来新高。上月的通胀是年内的峰值了么？\n从美国国债利率代表的通胀平衡预期来看，已于5月中旬见顶。从高点2.54%回落到当前的2.22%，已经下行了0.32个百分点。同时6月基数效应也会缓和0.5个百分点。但美国6月通胀会退烧么？\n恐怕还没有。\n从研究机构的主要预期来看：美国6月CPI或居高不下。环比继5月上涨0.8%之后，本月将录得上涨0.5%。同比CPI增长4.9-5% ，几乎与5月高点持平。剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨4%，再创近30年来最大涨幅。\n\n\n注：上图为华尔街见闻通胀预测的CPI中值为5%，与上月持平；核心CPI中值为3.9%，略高于上月水平。\n推动CPI上行的动力主要有以下几方面：\n1、食品和汽油价格的上涨\n供给受限、食品生产商成本转嫁压力、美国西部各州加剧的“大旱”等因素正共同推高美国市场上的食品价格。美国媒体Business Insider公布的美国目前正在经历的最严重短缺列表，这些产品包括计算机芯片、棕榈油、鸡肉、培根和热狗、进口食品（如奶酪，咖啡和橄榄油）及玉米等等数十种和美国经济生活密切相关的用品。 另外，汽油价格的继续上行也使得在全美范围内的运输成本变得更加昂贵。\n2、低收入工人的工资大幅上涨\n随着当前就业矛盾的加剧，最新的低收入领域薪资的强劲增长迹象令人震惊：亚特兰大联储的研究显示，今年以来，休闲和酒店行业的生产和非监管类工资已经上涨了8.25%，低薪服务业新雇佣工人的工资涨幅尤其强劲。纽约联储的一项调查显示，正常年收入低于6万美元的工人表示，他们要比疫情前高出26%的工资才会接受一份工作。\n高盛研究指出，劳动力密集的低工资行业几乎将他们的全部劳动力成本转移到通货膨胀上。低端工资每增长1%，会推动核心通胀率上升5-15个基点，而这还是一个温和的程度，还没考虑薪资超预期增长的情况。\n3、新车和二手车价格继续上行\n研究公司J.D. Power的数据，6月中旬美国销售的所有车辆中，约有四分之三的车辆售价达到或超过了美国汽车制造商的建议零售价，这一比例高于5月底的67%。同期Manheim的二手车价值批发指数继续比去年同期高出36%，4月份时其增长率一度超过了50%。\n整体而言，需求复苏下的供应链瓶颈和劳动力短缺依然是加剧通胀压力的主要推手。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}