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2021-06-30

Why would you choose to cut your losses when a good stock falls out of a golden trap?

近期，A股市场持续分化，消费、医药、科技三大主线依旧向好，其他不少板块却震荡不已，尤其是里面一些龙头个股，明明是人人看好的好公司，却跌个不停，持续考验着投资者的信心。面对好股票持续下跌，越来越多的投

Why would you choose to cut your losses when a good stock falls out of a golden trap?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":153848156,"tweetId":"153848156","gmtCreate":1625019001775,"gmtModify":1703850238866,"author":{"id":3571363097076123,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorId":3571363097076123,"authorIdStr":"3571363097076123","name":"Lim User","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/91c6957c7961e8d3966f52c4aaf62afe","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":16,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153848156","repostId":1133732318,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133732318","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625018575,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133732318?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Why would you choose to cut your losses when a good stock falls out of a golden trap?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133732318","media":"苏宁金融研究院","summary":"近期，A股市场持续分化，消费、医药、科技三大主线依旧向好，其他不少板块却震荡不已，尤其是里面一些龙头个股，明明是人人看好的好公司，却跌个不停，持续考验着投资者的信心。\n面对好股票持续下跌，越来越多的投","content":"Recently, the A-share market has continued to diverge. The three main themes of consumption, pharmaceuticals, and technology remain positive, while many other sectors have fluctuated. In particular, some leading stocks, which are clearly favored by everyone, have continued to fall, continuously testing investors' confidence.Faced with the continued decline of good stocks, more and more investors are choosing to cut their losses because they can't stand the inner torment and hope that cutting their losses will be the end of it all. You might find temporary psychological relief, but you can't hold onto good stocks. In the long run, investing to get rich becomes just empty talk.Significant divergence in A-share industriesStrictly speaking, the bull market since 2019 has only been a bull market for some industries; many other industries are in a bear market.Taking the ten-year trend since 2010 as a measurement range, there are still many industries whose P/E percentile is below 10%, that is, the P/E level is below 90% of the trading days over the past ten years, which is at the bottom of the valuation range. Meanwhile, some industries have P/E percentiles that reach or even exceed 90%, placing them at the top of their valuation range.On June 23, 2021, the P/E percentiles of five industries—real estate (0.2%), building decoration (1.7%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (5.9%), media (9%), and non-bank financial institutions (9.4%)—were all below 10%. Meanwhile, the P/E percentiles of food and beverage (95.1%), leisure services (89.7%), and automobiles (89.7%) were around 90%, showing a clear polarization.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e5a5386dd588efa779e3aa097423dd6\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Putting A-shares aside, let's first explore a question from the perspective of investment philosophy. As an investor, do you agree with the following view that, in the long run, buying and holding industries with low P/E will significantly outperform industries with high P/E?In terms of philosophy, I believe many investors agree with this. Everyone believes that \"buying undervalued and holding for the long term\" is the only way to make money in investing, which is why many people call themselves value investors.However, if we return to the reality of A-shares, P/E in sectors such as real estate, construction and decoration, and non-bank financial institutions are currently at historical lows. Would you be willing to buy now and hold them for the long term?I believeOnce reality returns, many people will hesitate because they can easily find a whole host of reasons to be pessimistic about these industries.For example, in the real estate and building decoration industries, investors might say that the overall logic is broken due to factors such as the principle of \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" and an aging population. For example, in the insurance industry, people believe that long-term declining interest rates will suppress insurance companies' investment returns, and that the internet will make competition in insurance products more transparent, which will lower the underwriting profits of insurance products, etc.Similarly, in terms of investment philosophy, everyone highly praises and agrees with Buffett's saying, \"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.\" However, during the 2008 financial crisis, the stock market plummeted. When Buffett issued an article calling on everyone to buy stocks, few responded, because given the specific market environment at the time, people could easily find a bunch of reasons to be bearish.It is evident that buying or holding stocks that are not favored by the market is never an easy task.\"This time is different.\"Many investment gurus have said the same thing: the five most expensive words in investing are \"this time it's different.\"The Dutch tulip bubble of the 17th century is the most influential speculative bubble event recorded in human history. People learned many lessons from it, including that any bubble will burst. One hundred years later, during the South China Sea bubble incident, investors thought \"this time is different,\" but the bubble still burst, and a large number of investors went bankrupt. Even during the dot-com speculation bubble of the 1990s, investors still believed that \"this time is different,\" and the result was that the bubble burst and a large number of investors went bankrupt.This is true during bubble periods, and it is also true during panic periods.In terms of concepts, investors believe in mean regression, believe that trees will not grow to the sky, believe that others are greedy and fearful, and believe that others are fearful and greedy. But when we return to the reality of investing, we can always find various reasons to convince ourselves that \"this time is different,\" until we pay a huge price.Three to five years later, everyone will forget their lessons and continue the story of \"this time it's different,\" repeating the cycle.Only a few people can break out of this vicious cycle and maintain stable investment returns in the long term. These investors rely on trusting common sense and believing in the regression of the mean. Especially at specific points in time, we should not dwell on the optimistic or pessimistic views of the mainstream market, but rather look at issues from a higher level and a longer-term perspective, and act against the trend. As Peter Lynch said:“Whenever I feel worried and disappointed about the big picture, I try to focus on the ‘even bigger picture.’ If you expect to maintain confidence in the stock market, you must understand the concept of the ‘bigger picture.’ The ‘bigger picture’ is looking at the stock market from a longer-term perspective.” From this passage, it can be seen that Peter Lynch is not convincing himself from a rational or logical perspective that the current situation is not worth worrying about. On the contrary, he believes that the situation is worrying and disappointing, but in order not to be affected by this emotion, he uses a longer and farther perspective to convince himself not to be afraid.Ultimately,When the market falls into panic, outstanding investors do not refute the market from the facts, but rather take a longer view, using long-term rationality to overcome short-term rationality and simple common sense to overcome panic.Returning to the A-share market, if an investor holds insurance stocks, the current P/E of the insurance sector is at a ten-year historical low (0.9%). From the perspective of long-term mean reversion, now is the best time to hold firmly and wait for a reversal. However, if we look at the industry fundamentals, many problems remain unanswered in the short term, and there is no hope for the gradual decline in stock prices. It seems that \"the valuation bottom is different this time\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c593b63faa09c6219f83f6c2be0f54\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In fact, it is precisely because it is often difficult to make choices purely from a logical analysis perspective that investors need to rely on investment systems to assist in decision-making.Breaking out of the logical dead endEvery investment system contains many principles of mechanical operation. It is through these principles that investors are able to break out of the dead end of logic and grasp the bigger picture.In the value investing system, mean regression is the core belief. When fundamentals and market sentiment conflict with it, value investors should stand on the side of mean regression; otherwise, they will not have the courage to hold against the trend.For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, the fundamentals were hopeless, and the stock market plummeted. At that time, value investors bought at the bottom not because they saw hope in the Federal Reserve's bailout policy, but because they were mechanically buying based on the belief in \"mean regression\". To put it bluntly, it wasn't because I had much confidence, but simply because the stock market had fallen too badly that I bought it.Howard Marks once recalled that he had a leveraged product, and at the height of the crisis, he raised supplementary funds from a pension institution. Howard used historical averages to explain the success rate of investing at this time to investors, only to be repeatedly asked, \"What if things were worse?\"Clearly, investors at this point no longer care about historical average performance and have begun to pursue 100% certainty in extreme market environments, abandoning the most basic odds thinking. No one can guarantee 100% certainty, and as a result, Howard failed to raise funds and had to pay out of his own pocket to supplement the funds.In hindsight, Howard made a fortune, but he emphasized that being correct after the fact does not mean that the decisions made beforehand were 100% correct. All he could grasp when making his decision was his firm belief in the regression of the mean, and he firmly believed that buying at that time would have an extremely high success rate.For investors,Under no circumstances should we walk into a logical dead end by expecting 100% certainty; what is truly important is to always remain skeptical. When pessimism breeds greater pessimism, investors need to rely on skepticism to summon optimism; When optimistic situations breed greater optimism, it is also necessary to rely on skepticism to summon pessimism.Similarly, investors in A-share sectors such as insurance are unrealistically pursuing 100% certainty if they are still worried about the short-term performance of fundamentals when the sector's P/E is nearing its historical low. What we really need to do now is embrace skepticism, use skepticism to summon optimism, hold firmly with the belief that \"after a sharp drop, it will inevitably rise back,\" and even buy against the trend.A sluggish market is a good option for value investors.Regardless of the school of thought, making money in stocks cannot be separated from four words: buy low and sell high. From a value investing perspective, the fundamentals corresponding to buying low and selling high must be pessimistic in the short term and optimistic in the long term. This is the only way to ensure that the price is low when buying and high when selling later. Therefore, a sluggish market is a friend of value investing.When your stocks continue to fall, examine their fundamentals and repeatedly assess their long-term development prospects. As long as the medium- to long-term prospects are promising and the stock price falls, the fall presents a buying opportunity.So, when you're right, learn to persevere and be patient. Finally, let's end with an example from Philip A. Fisher:“We asked a person to look at the moon at 8 p.m. and then told him that as time went by, the moon would slide across the sky. He would gaze at the moon with great interest and intentness, but he couldn’t feel the moon’s movement. So he just watched it intently and calmly.” At 8:02 a.m., there was still no change in the moon's position. A minute passed, and there was still no movement. Another minute passed, and everything was still the same, so he had no choice but to give up in disappointment. He felt that this kind of thing had no meaning and no value. But at 2 a.m., when he looked up at the sky again, he discovered that the miraculous change that had made him so impatient at 8:04 p.m. had finally occurred.","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why would you choose to cut your losses when a good stock falls out of a golden trap?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy would you choose to cut your losses when a good stock falls out of a golden trap?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n苏宁金融研究院2021-06-30 10:02\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nRecently, the A-share market has continued to diverge. The three main themes of consumption, pharmaceuticals, and technology remain positive, while many other sectors have fluctuated. In particular, some leading stocks, which are clearly favored by everyone, have continued to fall, continuously testing investors' confidence.Faced with the continued decline of good stocks, more and more investors are choosing to cut their losses because they can't stand the inner torment and hope that cutting their losses will be the end of it all. You might find temporary psychological relief, but you can't hold onto good stocks. In the long run, investing to get rich becomes just empty talk.Significant divergence in A-share industriesStrictly speaking, the bull market since 2019 has only been a bull market for some industries; many other industries are in a bear market.Taking the ten-year trend since 2010 as a measurement range, there are still many industries whose P/E percentile is below 10%, that is, the P/E level is below 90% of the trading days over the past ten years, which is at the bottom of the valuation range. Meanwhile, some industries have P/E percentiles that reach or even exceed 90%, placing them at the top of their valuation range.On June 23, 2021, the P/E percentiles of five industries—real estate (0.2%), building decoration (1.7%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (5.9%), media (9%), and non-bank financial institutions (9.4%)—were all below 10%. Meanwhile, the P/E percentiles of food and beverage (95.1%), leisure services (89.7%), and automobiles (89.7%) were around 90%, showing a clear polarization.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e5a5386dd588efa779e3aa097423dd6\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Putting A-shares aside, let's first explore a question from the perspective of investment philosophy. As an investor, do you agree with the following view that, in the long run, buying and holding industries with low P/E will significantly outperform industries with high P/E?In terms of philosophy, I believe many investors agree with this. Everyone believes that \"buying undervalued and holding for the long term\" is the only way to make money in investing, which is why many people call themselves value investors.However, if we return to the reality of A-shares, P/E in sectors such as real estate, construction and decoration, and non-bank financial institutions are currently at historical lows. Would you be willing to buy now and hold them for the long term?I believeOnce reality returns, many people will hesitate because they can easily find a whole host of reasons to be pessimistic about these industries.For example, in the real estate and building decoration industries, investors might say that the overall logic is broken due to factors such as the principle of \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" and an aging population. For example, in the insurance industry, people believe that long-term declining interest rates will suppress insurance companies' investment returns, and that the internet will make competition in insurance products more transparent, which will lower the underwriting profits of insurance products, etc.Similarly, in terms of investment philosophy, everyone highly praises and agrees with Buffett's saying, \"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.\" However, during the 2008 financial crisis, the stock market plummeted. When Buffett issued an article calling on everyone to buy stocks, few responded, because given the specific market environment at the time, people could easily find a bunch of reasons to be bearish.It is evident that buying or holding stocks that are not favored by the market is never an easy task.\"This time is different.\"Many investment gurus have said the same thing: the five most expensive words in investing are \"this time it's different.\"The Dutch tulip bubble of the 17th century is the most influential speculative bubble event recorded in human history. People learned many lessons from it, including that any bubble will burst. One hundred years later, during the South China Sea bubble incident, investors thought \"this time is different,\" but the bubble still burst, and a large number of investors went bankrupt. Even during the dot-com speculation bubble of the 1990s, investors still believed that \"this time is different,\" and the result was that the bubble burst and a large number of investors went bankrupt.This is true during bubble periods, and it is also true during panic periods.In terms of concepts, investors believe in mean regression, believe that trees will not grow to the sky, believe that others are greedy and fearful, and believe that others are fearful and greedy. But when we return to the reality of investing, we can always find various reasons to convince ourselves that \"this time is different,\" until we pay a huge price.Three to five years later, everyone will forget their lessons and continue the story of \"this time it's different,\" repeating the cycle.Only a few people can break out of this vicious cycle and maintain stable investment returns in the long term. These investors rely on trusting common sense and believing in the regression of the mean. Especially at specific points in time, we should not dwell on the optimistic or pessimistic views of the mainstream market, but rather look at issues from a higher level and a longer-term perspective, and act against the trend. As Peter Lynch said:“Whenever I feel worried and disappointed about the big picture, I try to focus on the ‘even bigger picture.’ If you expect to maintain confidence in the stock market, you must understand the concept of the ‘bigger picture.’ The ‘bigger picture’ is looking at the stock market from a longer-term perspective.” From this passage, it can be seen that Peter Lynch is not convincing himself from a rational or logical perspective that the current situation is not worth worrying about. On the contrary, he believes that the situation is worrying and disappointing, but in order not to be affected by this emotion, he uses a longer and farther perspective to convince himself not to be afraid.Ultimately,When the market falls into panic, outstanding investors do not refute the market from the facts, but rather take a longer view, using long-term rationality to overcome short-term rationality and simple common sense to overcome panic.Returning to the A-share market, if an investor holds insurance stocks, the current P/E of the insurance sector is at a ten-year historical low (0.9%). From the perspective of long-term mean reversion, now is the best time to hold firmly and wait for a reversal. However, if we look at the industry fundamentals, many problems remain unanswered in the short term, and there is no hope for the gradual decline in stock prices. It seems that \"the valuation bottom is different this time\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c593b63faa09c6219f83f6c2be0f54\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In fact, it is precisely because it is often difficult to make choices purely from a logical analysis perspective that investors need to rely on investment systems to assist in decision-making.Breaking out of the logical dead endEvery investment system contains many principles of mechanical operation. It is through these principles that investors are able to break out of the dead end of logic and grasp the bigger picture.In the value investing system, mean regression is the core belief. When fundamentals and market sentiment conflict with it, value investors should stand on the side of mean regression; otherwise, they will not have the courage to hold against the trend.For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, the fundamentals were hopeless, and the stock market plummeted. At that time, value investors bought at the bottom not because they saw hope in the Federal Reserve's bailout policy, but because they were mechanically buying based on the belief in \"mean regression\". To put it bluntly, it wasn't because I had much confidence, but simply because the stock market had fallen too badly that I bought it.Howard Marks once recalled that he had a leveraged product, and at the height of the crisis, he raised supplementary funds from a pension institution. Howard used historical averages to explain the success rate of investing at this time to investors, only to be repeatedly asked, \"What if things were worse?\"Clearly, investors at this point no longer care about historical average performance and have begun to pursue 100% certainty in extreme market environments, abandoning the most basic odds thinking. No one can guarantee 100% certainty, and as a result, Howard failed to raise funds and had to pay out of his own pocket to supplement the funds.In hindsight, Howard made a fortune, but he emphasized that being correct after the fact does not mean that the decisions made beforehand were 100% correct. All he could grasp when making his decision was his firm belief in the regression of the mean, and he firmly believed that buying at that time would have an extremely high success rate.For investors,Under no circumstances should we walk into a logical dead end by expecting 100% certainty; what is truly important is to always remain skeptical. When pessimism breeds greater pessimism, investors need to rely on skepticism to summon optimism; When optimistic situations breed greater optimism, it is also necessary to rely on skepticism to summon pessimism.Similarly, investors in A-share sectors such as insurance are unrealistically pursuing 100% certainty if they are still worried about the short-term performance of fundamentals when the sector's P/E is nearing its historical low. What we really need to do now is embrace skepticism, use skepticism to summon optimism, hold firmly with the belief that \"after a sharp drop, it will inevitably rise back,\" and even buy against the trend.A sluggish market is a good option for value investors.Regardless of the school of thought, making money in stocks cannot be separated from four words: buy low and sell high. From a value investing perspective, the fundamentals corresponding to buying low and selling high must be pessimistic in the short term and optimistic in the long term. This is the only way to ensure that the price is low when buying and high when selling later. Therefore, a sluggish market is a friend of value investing.When your stocks continue to fall, examine their fundamentals and repeatedly assess their long-term development prospects. As long as the medium- to long-term prospects are promising and the stock price falls, the fall presents a buying opportunity.So, when you're right, learn to persevere and be patient. Finally, let's end with an example from Philip A. Fisher:“We asked a person to look at the moon at 8 p.m. and then told him that as time went by, the moon would slide across the sky. He would gaze at the moon with great interest and intentness, but he couldn’t feel the moon’s movement. So he just watched it intently and calmly.” At 8:02 a.m., there was still no change in the moon's position. A minute passed, and there was still no movement. Another minute passed, and everything was still the same, so he had no choice but to give up in disappointment. He felt that this kind of thing had no meaning and no value. But at 2 a.m., when he looked up at the sky again, he discovered that the miraculous change that had made him so impatient at 8:04 p.m. had finally occurred.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2YozTtjsIBm5X9KQ3AmlFg\">苏宁金融研究院</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2YozTtjsIBm5X9KQ3AmlFg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133732318","content_text":"近期，A股市场持续分化，消费、医药、科技三大主线依旧向好，其他不少板块却震荡不已，尤其是里面一些龙头个股，明明是人人看好的好公司，却跌个不停，持续考验着投资者的信心。\n面对好股票持续下跌，越来越多的投资者选择割肉，因为实在受不了内心煎熬，希望割肉之后一了百了。心理上也许得到一时的解脱，但好股票拿不住，长此以往，投资致富就成了一句空话。\nA股行业大分化\n严格意义上说，2019年以来的牛市，仅是部分行业的牛市，还有很多行业处于熊市行情中。\n以2010年以来的十年走势为计量区间，当前仍有不少行业市盈率的分位值低于10%，即市盈率水平低于十年来90%的交易日，处于估值区间底部；同时，也有一些行业市盈率分位值达到甚至超过90%，处于估值区间顶部。\n2021年6月23日，房地产（0.2%）、建筑装饰（1.7%）、农林牧渔（5.9%）、传媒（9%）、非银金融（9.4%）五个行业的市盈率分位值均低于10%，同时食品饮料（95.1%）、休闲服务（89.7%）、汽车（89.7%）三个行业的市盈率分位值处在90%左右，出现明显的两极分化。\n\n把A股放一边，我们先从投资理念上探讨一个问题，作为投资者，你是否认可以下观点，即：长期来看，买入并持有低市盈率的行业，业绩表现会明显超过买入并持有市盈率处于高位的行业。\n就理念论理念，我相信很多投资者都是认可的，大家都相信“低估买入并长期持有”是投资赚钱的不二法门，这也是很多人自称价值投资者的原因。\n但若我们回归A股现实，当前房地产、建筑装饰、非银金融等行业的市盈率处于历史低位，你是否愿意现在买入并长期持有呢？\n我相信一旦回归现实，很多人会犹豫起来，因为大家能轻易找出一大堆看衰这些行业的理由。比如房地产和建筑装饰业，投资者会说，受房住不炒、人口老龄化等因素影响，大逻辑坏掉了；再比如保险业，大家又认为，长期利率下行压制保险公司投资收益，互联网使保险产品竞争透明化，会拉低保险产品的承保利润，等等。\n同样，从投资理念上，大家对巴菲特的“在别人贪婪的时候恐惧，在别人恐惧的时候贪婪”大加赞赏，深以为然；但2008年金融危机之下，股市跌得令人发吐，巴菲特发文号召大家买入股票时，却响应者寥寥，因为具体到当时的市场环境，大家能轻易找到一堆看空的理由。\n可见，买入或持有不被市场看好的股票，从来就不是一件容易的事。\n“这次不一样”\n很多投资大师说过同样的话，投资中最昂贵的五个字就是“这次不一样”。\n17世纪的荷兰郁金香泡沫是人类历史上有记载的最具影响力的投机泡沫事件，人们从中学到了很多教训，包括任何泡沫都会破灭；100年之后的南海泡沫事件中，投资者认为“这次不一样”，结果泡沫照样破灭，大批投资者破产；一直到上世纪90年代的互联网投机泡沫，投资者依旧认为“这次不一样”，结果依旧是泡沫破灭，大批投资者破产。\n泡沫期如此，恐慌阶段也是如此。\n就理念谈理念，投资者相信均值回归，相信树不会长到天上，相信别人贪婪我恐惧、别人恐惧我贪婪；但回到投资现实时，总是能找到各种理由来说服自己，相信“这次不一样”，直至付出巨大代价。三五年后，大家又会忘记教训，继续着“这次不一样”的故事，周而复始。\n只有少数人能跳出这个怪圈，得以长期保持稳健的投资收益，这些投资者依靠的就是相信常识、相信均值回归。尤其在特定的时间点，不纠结于市场主流的乐观或悲观见解，而是从更高的层面、更远的视角来看问题，做到逆势而动。正如彼得·林奇所说：\n\n “每当我对目前的大局（big picture）感到忧虑和失望时，我就会努力让自己关注于‘更大的大局’（even bigger picture）。如果你期望自己能够对股市保持信心的话，你就一定要了解‘更大的大局’这个概念。‘更大的大局’是从更长更远的眼光来看股市。”\n\n从这段话里可以看出，彼得·林奇并非从理性或逻辑的角度说服自己当前局势不值得忧虑，相反，他也认为局面令人感到忧虑和失望，只是为不受这种情绪影响，他用更长更远的视角来说服自己不恐惧。\n归根结底，当市场陷入恐慌情绪时，卓越的投资者们并非从事实上去驳倒市场，而是把眼光拉长，用长期理性战胜短期理性，用简单常识战胜恐慌情绪。\n回到A股，如果一个投资者持有保险股，当前保险板块市盈率处于十年来历史底部（0.9%）。站在长期均值回归的视角，现在正是坚定持有、等待反转的最佳时点，但如果着眼于行业基本面，很多难题短期内还未见答案，股价阴跌还看不到希望，似乎“这次的估值底部不一样”。\n\n事实上，正是因为很多时候纯粹从逻辑分析层面不好抉择，投资者才需要依靠投资体系辅助决策。\n跳出逻辑死胡同\n任何一个投资体系，都含有很多机械操作的原则，正是依靠这些原则，投资者才得以从逻辑的死胡同中跳脱出来，把握更大的大局。\n在价值投资体系下，均值回归是最核心的信念，当基本面、市场情绪与之相左时，价值投资者应站在均值回归这一边，否则便不可能拥有逆势持有的勇气。\n比如2008年金融危机时，基本面看不到希望，股市更是一泻千里，此时的价值投资者抄底买入，并非从美联储救市政策中看到了希望，而是基于“均值回归”信念进行的机械式买入。说白了，并非因为本身产生了多大的信心，纯粹是因为股市跌得太惨了，所以出手买入。\n霍华德·马克斯曾回忆这段历史，他有一只产品带有杠杆，危机最严重的时候，他曾经向一家养老金机构募集补充资金。霍华德从历史均值出发，向投资者解释此时注资的胜率，结果被一再追问“如果情况更糟一些呢”。\n显然，此时的投资者已不在乎历史平均表现，在极端市场环境下开始追求100%的确定性，放弃了最基本的赔率思维。没有人能保证100%的确定性，结果霍华德募资失败，只好自掏腰包补充资金。\n事后来看，霍华德赚得盘满钵满，但他却强调，事后正确不代表事前决策100%地正确。他决策时所能把握的，只是对均值回归的坚定信念，他坚信当时买入会有极高的胜率。\n对投资者而言，任何情况下都不能因奢求100%的确定性而走入逻辑的死胡同，真正重要的是始终保持怀疑主义。当悲观情绪滋生更大的悲观情绪时，投资者需依靠怀疑主义来召唤乐观主义；当乐观情况滋生更大的乐观情绪时，也需要依靠怀疑主义来召唤悲观主义。\n同样，当前A股诸如保险等板块的投资者，在板块市盈率接近历史底部时，若还在纠结基本面的短期表现，何尝不是不切实际地追求100%的确定性呢。此时真正要做的是拥抱怀疑主义，用怀疑主义来召唤乐观主义，抱着“跌多了必然涨回去”的信念坚定持有，甚至逆势买入。\n行情低迷，是价值投资的朋友\n无论什么流派，炒股赚钱都离不开四个字：低买高卖。站在价值投资的角度看，低买高卖对应的基本面必然是短期悲观、长期看好，这样才能确保前面买入时价格低，后面卖出时价格高。所以，行情低迷，是价值投资的朋友。\n当你持有的股票跌跌不休时，检查其基本面，反复研判其中长期发展前景，只要中长期前景看好，股价下跌，跌出来的正是买入机会。\n所以，当你是对的时候，要学会坚持，多点耐心。最后，我们用菲利普·A·费雪举过的一个例子作为结束：\n\n “我们让一个人在晚上8时的时候去看看月亮，然后告诉他，随着时间的流逝，月亮会滑过天空。他会兴味盎然、聚精会神地去凝视月亮的运动，但却无法感受到月亮的运动。于是，他就这样凝神静气地看下去。\n\n\n 到了8时零2分，仍然看不到月亮的位置有什么变化。过了1分钟，还是没有任何动静，又过了1分钟，一切依然如故，于是他只好失望地放弃。\n\n\n 他觉得这种事没有任何意义，也没有任何价值。\n\n\n 但到了凌晨2时，再次仰望天空的他，却发现晚上8时零4分曾经让他等得不耐烦的神奇变化终于出现了。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"GCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}