good-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

1
Comment
Favorite

Jun Yee
2021-06-29

good

Netflix's Next Step: Becoming Disney?

面对大举反攻的影视巨头，Netflix 虽然已经开始赚钱，但这远远不够。 Netflix 开始学习迪士尼了。就在爱优腾还在和短视频行业较劲的当口，早已盈利的 Netflix 推出了 Netflix

Netflix's Next Step: Becoming Disney?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

1

Report

Comment

Top
Latest

empty

No comments yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":159837189,"tweetId":"159837189","gmtCreate":1624954929741,"gmtModify":1703848748063,"author":{"id":3585803365128858,"idStr":"3585803365128858","authorId":3585803365128858,"authorIdStr":"3585803365128858","name":"Jun Yee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0754ef9c1dfeb0bb908c0592c33ea546","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.44%","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>good</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>good</p></body></html>","text":"good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159837189","repostId":1138372330,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138372330","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624953281,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138372330?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 15:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Netflix's Next Step: Becoming Disney?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138372330","media":"极客公园","summary":"面对大举反攻的影视巨头，Netflix 虽然已经开始赚钱，但这远远不够。\nNetflix 开始学习迪士尼了。\n就在爱优腾还在和短视频行业较劲的当口，早已盈利的 Netflix 推出了 Netflix ","content":"<p>In the face of the film and television giants who are aggressively counterattacking, although Netflix has begun to make money, this is far from enough.</p><p>Netflix Starts Learning<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>Yeah, I've got it.</p><p>Just as Aiyouteng was still competing with the short video industry, Netflix, which was already profitable, launched Netflix Shop and entered the e-commerce field for the first time.</p><p>The Netflix Shop currently has a very limited number of items on sale, but 18. Among them, up to $135<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Alarm clocks, there are also T-shirts for $30, but mainly clothing priced between $30 and $80. In the future, Netflix will also launch a series of products such as Stranger Things The Witcher.</p><p><b>What these products have in common is that they are all peripheral products of Netflix's IP.</b></p><p>It's hard not to think of the top player in the IP licensing market-Disney. According to data from the International Licensing Industry Association (LIMA), global sales of licensed goods in 2019 were US $292.8 billion. Disney, the first place, accounted for US $54.7 billion, which is twice Netflix's full-year revenue in 2020.</p><p>Clearly, Netflix is targeting the IP licensing cake. Behind this are Netflix's hidden worries and ambitions.</p><p><b>Netflix's worries</b></p><p>2020 was almost the best year for Netflix since its inception. Because of the epidemic, many people's entertainment activities have turned online. As a result, Netflix also increased by 37 million paying subscribers, breaking the company's growth record, and the total number of paying subscribers also exceeded 200 million historically. Correspondingly, the full-year profit increased by 76%.</p><p>This company, which was founded as a DVD rental business, turned to streaming media in time at the end of the golden age of television. Since then, it has achieved double-digit growth in paying users year after year.</p><p><b>As a company with a market value of $230 billion, Netflix's business model is extremely simple-producing high-quality content and attracting consumers to pay for subscriptions.</b>In 2019, 98.52% of Netflix's revenue came from membership fees. Analogy to domestic long video platforms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>, membership fees only account for about 50% of its total revenue, and other revenue mainly comes from online advertising and content distribution. It can be said that the growth of Netflix's revenue depends entirely on the growth of users.<b>The flip side of this statement is that once paying subscribers fail to grow continuously, Netflix's business model will usher in a crisis.</b></p><p>As the pioneer of streaming media platforms and the largest number of users, Netflix may hit the ceiling of users earlier. Streaming platforms are essentially robbing subscribers from pay TV. Take the U.S. pay TV market as an example. After reaching a peak of 101 million paying users in 2011, it has declined year by year. At present, Netflix has about 67 million users in the United States, which means that more than half of potential users have already paid for Netflix. Just in the first quarter of 2021, Netflix added only 4 million new subscribers, lower than the expected 6 million, and Netflix's stock price fell 11%.</p><p>A poor quarter of performance isn't a serious problem for Netflix, the real bone-breaking thing-Netflix's market share may be being eroded by competitors.</p><p>In order to cope with the revenue pressure brought about by the slowdown in user growth, Netflix's membership fee has increased five times. The most recent one occurred in October 2020, when the basic package remained unchanged at $8.99, and the standard and basic packages increased by $1 and $2 to $13.99 and $17.99.</p><p>This price is not much different from Netflix's main competitors for more than a decade, HBO NOW ($14.99 for ad-free version) and HULU ($11.99 for ad-free version), but it is not much different from Disney,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Compared with these ambitious new generation of entrants, there is no advantage. Disney + costs just $7.99 a month, and Apple TV + costs even less at just $4.99.</p><p>The past year has almost been the Warring States Period of global streaming media, with giants Disney, Apple, and Paramount entering the market one after another.</p><p>When asked at an earnings analysis conference in the first quarter of this year how he viewed the current competition, Reed Hastings, the founder of Netflix, responded this way: Obviously, there is always new competition. But when we look at the past data, the company has been growing because we are also confident.</p><p>The confidence of the founders is one aspect, but the giants' encroachment on Netflix is also real. In 2020, Netflix's market share of original programming fell to 50% from 56% at the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3168aceb52ba01af09cfda9ca74654a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Global Original Programming Market Share. Data Source : Parrot Analytics. Image Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a></p><p>Behind this is the loss of content from Netflix. Because of the launch of Disney +, Netflix removed a series of Disney IP content. HBO, on the other hand, also got back the copyrights of Friends, The Big Bang Theory, Studio Ghibli and other works. Similarly, the old sitcom \"The Office\" was taken back by NBC.</p><p>Among the viewing time of subscribers, Netflix's self-produced dramas only account for 30% of the total, and the rest come from external copyrights. According to the data of \"China Business News\" magazine, the top three works on Netflix in 2018 were \"The Office\", \"Friends\" and \"Grey's Anatomy.\" New content may be the key to driving user growth, but for old audiences, they are more inclined to choose works they are familiar with.</p><p>Netflix, which has been making efforts in original content, has withdrawn most of its production plans due to the epidemic. Currently, Netflix doesn't have any big return series.</p><p>Netflix's model is more or less like a one-shot deal. After the user watches the episode, he will no longer have contact with the show. Netflix's Stranger Things \"House of Cards\" has a large number of diehard fans, but a single subscription payment model cannot fully tap the value of these IPs. This leads to a strange phenomenon: on the one hand, there are fans holding banknotes and screaming Shut up and take my money, and on the other hand, there are indifferent officials.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8ff18c69d2bd4df4d5c3788a0149e63\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Credit: memegenetator</p><p>Last year, Netflix's self-produced documentary \"Tiger King\" was watched by 34.3 million people within 10 days of its launch, making it Netflix's most successful series. A large number of \"Tiger King\" peripherals immediately appeared on the e-commerce brand Esty. But except for all, they are all copycats.</p><p>Searching for Tiger King on Esty still yields 8195 results. Credit: Esty</p><p>It's not difficult to understand why Netflix wants to launch an online mall. In the official Netflix blog, Josh Simon, head of Netflix Shop and vice president of consumer goods division, wrote:<b>We love seeing good stories go beyond the screen and become part of people's lives.</b>」「<b>We are constantly thinking about how we can expand our story world for fans, from costumes and toys to immersive events and games.</b>That's why today we're launching Netflix.shop as an exciting new destination that combines carefully curated products and rich stories in a unique Netflix shopping experience.</p><p>There's one thing reading between the lines:<b>We want to be Disney!</b></p><p><b>Disney Magic</b></p><p>In 1929, a man went to a hotel to find Walter Disney, offered $300 and asked for the image of Mickey Mouse to be printed on a writing table. The $300 became Disney's first franchise revenue. Nearly a hundred years later, this $300 became a big business of $54.7 billion.</p><p>Open Disney's IP list, and you will find that this is almost an endless list. In addition to its own original IPs, such as Mickey Mouse, * the Bear, Disney Princess, Lion King, etc., Disney also frantically acquired Pixar, Marvel Comics, Lucasfilm, and 20th Century Fox in the first 20 years of the 21st century. In other words, except Mickey Mouse, all the IPs you are familiar with such as Avengers, Star Wars, Avatar and Toy Story belong to Disney.</p><p>Family portraits of Disney's IP characters. Image credit: psu.edu</p><p>According to TitleMax data in 2019, 8 of the 20 most profitable IPs in the world are from Disney, with a cumulative economic value of US $355.182 billion. Among them, * the Bear, Mickey Mouse and Star Wars ranked 3rd, 4th and 5th respectively. These old IPs, which have been more than 40 years or even nearly a hundred years old, still explode with amazing vitality.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e949ad901d47454456f46fa01087221f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"3408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The remaining TOP 20 Disney IPs are Disney Princess at No. 7, Marvel Universe at No. 11, Spider-Man at No. 12, Cars at No. 18 and Toy Story at No. 19. Credit: TITLEMAX</p><p>In Hollywood, there is a famous locomotive theory:<b>The movie itself may not make money, but it must drive the development of related products</b>。 Walt Disney clearly knows this well. As early as 1957, he drew a sketch that clearly described Disney's business model.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c6a77415a665f0ec24a5f0dc2a0a794\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Disney business model painted by Walt Disney. Credit: kottke.org</p><p>In this sketch, the film studio is in a clear central position, surrounded by music, television, licensed merchandise, theme parks and publications. Take magazines, for example, movies provide articles for magazines, and magazines can promote movies and Disneyland. Each piece is closely connected, cooperating with each other and complement each other.</p><p>To this day, Disney still hasn't broken away from the underlying logic of this model. Disney never regards the animated images created as disposable consumer goods, but digs deeply as a gold mine that can be consumed for a long time. When Disney makes a movie, the company doesn't just think about the movie itself, but how to transform the story into goods, services, experiences and other derivative products. As former Disney CFO Jay Rasulo said: Every aspect of the company is brand-oriented and franchise-oriented.</p><p>Today, Disney's model is called<b>Round revenue</b>。</p><p>First of all, Disney will launch movies with IP stories as the core at a high cost, and earn the first round of revenue through the box office.</p><p>Then, Disney will sell the film rights to streaming platforms to earn a second round of revenue</p><p>At the same time, every time Disney launches a new movie, it will add corresponding new characters to the theme park, and earn the third round of revenue through Disneyland.</p><p>Finally, earn a fourth round of revenue through franchising, publishing, retail, etc.</p><p>Through these four rounds of revenue, Disney clearly squeezed out the profits of every IP. These various profit channels give Disney a key advantage over Netflix and continue the vitality of its IP.</p><p><b>Build love for stories and turn love into money</b></p><p>Unlike Disney, Netflix has no plans to build offline stores. Currently, Netflix has cooperated with Target,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>, H&M, Sephora and other retailers have signed licensing agreements for hundreds of peripheral products.</p><p>Netflix has also developed an online mall system together with e-commerce platform Shopify. Previously, Shopify has provided technical support for Allbirds, Kith, The New York Times, and Kim Kardashian's brand Skims.</p><p>Simon, the project leader of Netflix Shop, once stayed at Disney Studios for six years as the production and development director.</p><p>All these messages seem to indicate Netflix's determination: Hey! We are not playing tickets, we are serious!</p><p>For years, Netflix has shied away from being an entertainment company or a tech company. Just recently, Hastings, the founder of Netflix, declared: We are really an entertainment company.</p><p>According to Matthew Ball, a former Amazon Studio executive,<b>Essentially, an entertainment company does only three things:</b></p><p><ol><li><b>Create/tell a story</b></p><p></li><li><b>Build love for these stories</b></p><p></li><li><b>Turn love into money</b></p><p></li></ol>By that standard, Disney is easily the best company on the planet. Think about it, how many little girls want to wear Elsa's long blue dress while visiting Disneyland? How many parents will pay for it?</p><p>Netflix has done a good enough job of telling stories and building love, but can it turn love into money?</p><p>Mark A Cohen, director of retail research at Columbia Business School, expressed doubts: Most of them (Netflix's hits) have short shelf lives, unlike Disney's IPs, which are a long journey of a generation.</p><p>Despite a lot of uncertainty, this is undoubtedly Netflix's best year financially. The company has borrowed a total of $16 billion in the past 10 years. Late last year, Netflix said in its fourth-quarter earnings report that it no longer needed to seek borrowings to fund the company. In other words, Netflix has become a truly profitable company.</p><p>And its other streaming competitors are still losing money, including Disney.</p>","source":"jkgy","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix's Next Step: Becoming Disney?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix's Next Step: Becoming Disney?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">极客公园</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 15:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the face of the film and television giants who are aggressively counterattacking, although Netflix has begun to make money, this is far from enough.</p><p>Netflix Starts Learning<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>Yeah, I've got it.</p><p>Just as Aiyouteng was still competing with the short video industry, Netflix, which was already profitable, launched Netflix Shop and entered the e-commerce field for the first time.</p><p>The Netflix Shop currently has a very limited number of items on sale, but 18. Among them, up to $135<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Alarm clocks, there are also T-shirts for $30, but mainly clothing priced between $30 and $80. In the future, Netflix will also launch a series of products such as Stranger Things The Witcher.</p><p><b>What these products have in common is that they are all peripheral products of Netflix's IP.</b></p><p>It's hard not to think of the top player in the IP licensing market-Disney. According to data from the International Licensing Industry Association (LIMA), global sales of licensed goods in 2019 were US $292.8 billion. Disney, the first place, accounted for US $54.7 billion, which is twice Netflix's full-year revenue in 2020.</p><p>Clearly, Netflix is targeting the IP licensing cake. Behind this are Netflix's hidden worries and ambitions.</p><p><b>Netflix's worries</b></p><p>2020 was almost the best year for Netflix since its inception. Because of the epidemic, many people's entertainment activities have turned online. As a result, Netflix also increased by 37 million paying subscribers, breaking the company's growth record, and the total number of paying subscribers also exceeded 200 million historically. Correspondingly, the full-year profit increased by 76%.</p><p>This company, which was founded as a DVD rental business, turned to streaming media in time at the end of the golden age of television. Since then, it has achieved double-digit growth in paying users year after year.</p><p><b>As a company with a market value of $230 billion, Netflix's business model is extremely simple-producing high-quality content and attracting consumers to pay for subscriptions.</b>In 2019, 98.52% of Netflix's revenue came from membership fees. Analogy to domestic long video platforms<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>, membership fees only account for about 50% of its total revenue, and other revenue mainly comes from online advertising and content distribution. It can be said that the growth of Netflix's revenue depends entirely on the growth of users.<b>The flip side of this statement is that once paying subscribers fail to grow continuously, Netflix's business model will usher in a crisis.</b></p><p>As the pioneer of streaming media platforms and the largest number of users, Netflix may hit the ceiling of users earlier. Streaming platforms are essentially robbing subscribers from pay TV. Take the U.S. pay TV market as an example. After reaching a peak of 101 million paying users in 2011, it has declined year by year. At present, Netflix has about 67 million users in the United States, which means that more than half of potential users have already paid for Netflix. Just in the first quarter of 2021, Netflix added only 4 million new subscribers, lower than the expected 6 million, and Netflix's stock price fell 11%.</p><p>A poor quarter of performance isn't a serious problem for Netflix, the real bone-breaking thing-Netflix's market share may be being eroded by competitors.</p><p>In order to cope with the revenue pressure brought about by the slowdown in user growth, Netflix's membership fee has increased five times. The most recent one occurred in October 2020, when the basic package remained unchanged at $8.99, and the standard and basic packages increased by $1 and $2 to $13.99 and $17.99.</p><p>This price is not much different from Netflix's main competitors for more than a decade, HBO NOW ($14.99 for ad-free version) and HULU ($11.99 for ad-free version), but it is not much different from Disney,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Compared with these ambitious new generation of entrants, there is no advantage. Disney + costs just $7.99 a month, and Apple TV + costs even less at just $4.99.</p><p>The past year has almost been the Warring States Period of global streaming media, with giants Disney, Apple, and Paramount entering the market one after another.</p><p>When asked at an earnings analysis conference in the first quarter of this year how he viewed the current competition, Reed Hastings, the founder of Netflix, responded this way: Obviously, there is always new competition. But when we look at the past data, the company has been growing because we are also confident.</p><p>The confidence of the founders is one aspect, but the giants' encroachment on Netflix is also real. In 2020, Netflix's market share of original programming fell to 50% from 56% at the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3168aceb52ba01af09cfda9ca74654a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Global Original Programming Market Share. Data Source : Parrot Analytics. Image Source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">The New York Times</a></p><p>Behind this is the loss of content from Netflix. Because of the launch of Disney +, Netflix removed a series of Disney IP content. HBO, on the other hand, also got back the copyrights of Friends, The Big Bang Theory, Studio Ghibli and other works. Similarly, the old sitcom \"The Office\" was taken back by NBC.</p><p>Among the viewing time of subscribers, Netflix's self-produced dramas only account for 30% of the total, and the rest come from external copyrights. According to the data of \"China Business News\" magazine, the top three works on Netflix in 2018 were \"The Office\", \"Friends\" and \"Grey's Anatomy.\" New content may be the key to driving user growth, but for old audiences, they are more inclined to choose works they are familiar with.</p><p>Netflix, which has been making efforts in original content, has withdrawn most of its production plans due to the epidemic. Currently, Netflix doesn't have any big return series.</p><p>Netflix's model is more or less like a one-shot deal. After the user watches the episode, he will no longer have contact with the show. Netflix's Stranger Things \"House of Cards\" has a large number of diehard fans, but a single subscription payment model cannot fully tap the value of these IPs. This leads to a strange phenomenon: on the one hand, there are fans holding banknotes and screaming Shut up and take my money, and on the other hand, there are indifferent officials.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8ff18c69d2bd4df4d5c3788a0149e63\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Credit: memegenetator</p><p>Last year, Netflix's self-produced documentary \"Tiger King\" was watched by 34.3 million people within 10 days of its launch, making it Netflix's most successful series. A large number of \"Tiger King\" peripherals immediately appeared on the e-commerce brand Esty. But except for all, they are all copycats.</p><p>Searching for Tiger King on Esty still yields 8195 results. Credit: Esty</p><p>It's not difficult to understand why Netflix wants to launch an online mall. In the official Netflix blog, Josh Simon, head of Netflix Shop and vice president of consumer goods division, wrote:<b>We love seeing good stories go beyond the screen and become part of people's lives.</b>」「<b>We are constantly thinking about how we can expand our story world for fans, from costumes and toys to immersive events and games.</b>That's why today we're launching Netflix.shop as an exciting new destination that combines carefully curated products and rich stories in a unique Netflix shopping experience.</p><p>There's one thing reading between the lines:<b>We want to be Disney!</b></p><p><b>Disney Magic</b></p><p>In 1929, a man went to a hotel to find Walter Disney, offered $300 and asked for the image of Mickey Mouse to be printed on a writing table. The $300 became Disney's first franchise revenue. Nearly a hundred years later, this $300 became a big business of $54.7 billion.</p><p>Open Disney's IP list, and you will find that this is almost an endless list. In addition to its own original IPs, such as Mickey Mouse, * the Bear, Disney Princess, Lion King, etc., Disney also frantically acquired Pixar, Marvel Comics, Lucasfilm, and 20th Century Fox in the first 20 years of the 21st century. In other words, except Mickey Mouse, all the IPs you are familiar with such as Avengers, Star Wars, Avatar and Toy Story belong to Disney.</p><p>Family portraits of Disney's IP characters. Image credit: psu.edu</p><p>According to TitleMax data in 2019, 8 of the 20 most profitable IPs in the world are from Disney, with a cumulative economic value of US $355.182 billion. Among them, * the Bear, Mickey Mouse and Star Wars ranked 3rd, 4th and 5th respectively. These old IPs, which have been more than 40 years or even nearly a hundred years old, still explode with amazing vitality.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e949ad901d47454456f46fa01087221f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"3408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The remaining TOP 20 Disney IPs are Disney Princess at No. 7, Marvel Universe at No. 11, Spider-Man at No. 12, Cars at No. 18 and Toy Story at No. 19. Credit: TITLEMAX</p><p>In Hollywood, there is a famous locomotive theory:<b>The movie itself may not make money, but it must drive the development of related products</b>。 Walt Disney clearly knows this well. As early as 1957, he drew a sketch that clearly described Disney's business model.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c6a77415a665f0ec24a5f0dc2a0a794\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Disney business model painted by Walt Disney. Credit: kottke.org</p><p>In this sketch, the film studio is in a clear central position, surrounded by music, television, licensed merchandise, theme parks and publications. Take magazines, for example, movies provide articles for magazines, and magazines can promote movies and Disneyland. Each piece is closely connected, cooperating with each other and complement each other.</p><p>To this day, Disney still hasn't broken away from the underlying logic of this model. Disney never regards the animated images created as disposable consumer goods, but digs deeply as a gold mine that can be consumed for a long time. When Disney makes a movie, the company doesn't just think about the movie itself, but how to transform the story into goods, services, experiences and other derivative products. As former Disney CFO Jay Rasulo said: Every aspect of the company is brand-oriented and franchise-oriented.</p><p>Today, Disney's model is called<b>Round revenue</b>。</p><p>First of all, Disney will launch movies with IP stories as the core at a high cost, and earn the first round of revenue through the box office.</p><p>Then, Disney will sell the film rights to streaming platforms to earn a second round of revenue</p><p>At the same time, every time Disney launches a new movie, it will add corresponding new characters to the theme park, and earn the third round of revenue through Disneyland.</p><p>Finally, earn a fourth round of revenue through franchising, publishing, retail, etc.</p><p>Through these four rounds of revenue, Disney clearly squeezed out the profits of every IP. These various profit channels give Disney a key advantage over Netflix and continue the vitality of its IP.</p><p><b>Build love for stories and turn love into money</b></p><p>Unlike Disney, Netflix has no plans to build offline stores. Currently, Netflix has cooperated with Target,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>, H&M, Sephora and other retailers have signed licensing agreements for hundreds of peripheral products.</p><p>Netflix has also developed an online mall system together with e-commerce platform Shopify. Previously, Shopify has provided technical support for Allbirds, Kith, The New York Times, and Kim Kardashian's brand Skims.</p><p>Simon, the project leader of Netflix Shop, once stayed at Disney Studios for six years as the production and development director.</p><p>All these messages seem to indicate Netflix's determination: Hey! We are not playing tickets, we are serious!</p><p>For years, Netflix has shied away from being an entertainment company or a tech company. Just recently, Hastings, the founder of Netflix, declared: We are really an entertainment company.</p><p>According to Matthew Ball, a former Amazon Studio executive,<b>Essentially, an entertainment company does only three things:</b></p><p><ol><li><b>Create/tell a story</b></p><p></li><li><b>Build love for these stories</b></p><p></li><li><b>Turn love into money</b></p><p></li></ol>By that standard, Disney is easily the best company on the planet. Think about it, how many little girls want to wear Elsa's long blue dress while visiting Disneyland? How many parents will pay for it?</p><p>Netflix has done a good enough job of telling stories and building love, but can it turn love into money?</p><p>Mark A Cohen, director of retail research at Columbia Business School, expressed doubts: Most of them (Netflix's hits) have short shelf lives, unlike Disney's IPs, which are a long journey of a generation.</p><p>Despite a lot of uncertainty, this is undoubtedly Netflix's best year financially. The company has borrowed a total of $16 billion in the past 10 years. Late last year, Netflix said in its fourth-quarter earnings report that it no longer needed to seek borrowings to fund the company. In other words, Netflix has become a truly profitable company.</p><p>And its other streaming competitors are still losing money, including Disney.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/m--XabEJEHyLq5PY_bXcWw\">极客公园</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2224e6b43e75f835dbd8bb6d8c4972c","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞","DIS":"迪士尼","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/m--XabEJEHyLq5PY_bXcWw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138372330","content_text":"面对大举反攻的影视巨头，Netflix 虽然已经开始赚钱，但这远远不够。\nNetflix 开始学习迪士尼了。\n就在爱优腾还在和短视频行业较劲的当口，早已盈利的 Netflix 推出了 Netflix Shop，首次进入了电商领域。\nNetflix Shop 目前在售的商品数量还很有限，不过 18 种。其中有高达 135 美元的机器人闹钟，也有 30 美元的 T 恤，但主要还是价位在 30 至 80 美元的服饰。未来，Netflix 还会推出《怪奇物语》《猎魔人》等系列商品。\n这些商品的共同点在于——它们都是 Netflix 旗下 IP 的周边产品。\n这很难让人不联想到 IP 授权市场里的那个顶级玩家——迪士尼。根据国际授权业协会（LIMA）数据显示，2019 年全球授权商品的销售额为了 2928 亿美元。第一名迪士尼就占了 547 亿美元，这个数字，是 Netflix 2020 全年收入的两倍。\n显然，Netflix 瞄准了 IP 授权的蛋糕。这背后，是 Netflix 的隐忧，和野心。\nNetflix 的隐忧\n2020 年几乎是 Netflix 诞生以来最好的一年。因为疫情宅家的原因，许多人的娱乐活动都转向了线上。Netflix 也因此增长了 3700 万付费用户，打破了该公司的增长纪录，总付费用户数也历史性地突破 2 亿。相应的，全年利润增长了 76%。\n这家创立时做 DVD 租赁生意的公司，在电视黄金时代的末尾，及时转向了流媒体业务。此后年年实现了付费用户两位数以上的增长。\n作为一家市值 2300 亿美元的公司，Netflix 的商业模式却极其简单——生产优质内容，吸引消费者付费订阅。2019 年，Netflix 98.52% 的收入都来自会员费。类比国内的长视频平台爱奇艺，会员费仅占其总营收的约 50%，其它的收入主要来自在线广告和内容分发。可以说，Netflix 营收的增长完全取决于用户的增长。这句话的另一面是，一旦付费用户无法持续增长，Netflix 的商业模式就会迎来危机。\n作为流媒体平台的先驱和用户数量最庞大的 Netflix，可能更早撞上用户天花板。流媒体平台本质上是抢夺了付费电视的用户。以美国付费电视市场为例，在 2011 年付费用户达到 1.01 亿的顶峰后就逐年下滑。目前 Netflix 的美国用户约为 6700 万，也就是说，超过半数的潜在用户已经为 Netflix 买了单。就在 2021 年第一季度，Netflix 新增用户仅为 400 万，低于预期的 600 万，Netflix 的股价应声下跌了 11%。\n一个季度的糟糕表现对 Netflix 来说并不是什么严重的问题，真正伤筋动骨的是——Netflix 的市场份额可能正在被竞争对手蚕食。\n为了应对用户增长放缓带来的营收压力，Netflix 的会员费先后上涨过 5 次。最近的一次发生在 2020 年 10 月份, 基础套餐维持在 8.99 美元不变，标准和基础套餐别上涨了 1 美元和 2 美元，至 13.99 美元和 17.99 美元。\n这个价格与 Netflix 过于十几年来的主要竞争对手 HBO NOW（无广告版 14.99 美元）、HULU（无广告版 11.99 美元）差别不大，但是和迪士尼、苹果这些野心勃勃的新一代入场者相比，就没有什么优势了。迪士尼+的月费仅为 7.99 美元，苹果 TV+的费用甚至更低，仅为 4.99 美元。\n过去一年几乎是全球流媒体的战国时代，巨头迪士尼、苹果、派拉蒙相继入场。\n在今年一季度的财报分析会议上，当被问及如何看待当下的竞争时，Netflix 的创始人里德·黑斯廷斯（Reed Hastings）是这么回应的：「很明显，新的竞争一直存在。但是当我们翻看过往的数据，公司一直在保持增长，因为我们也很有信心。」\n创始人的信心是一方面，但巨头们对 Netflix 的蚕食也是实实在在。2020 年，Netflix 原创节目的市场份额从年初的 56% 跌至了 50%。\n全球原创节目市场份额。数据来源：Parrot Analytics。图片来源：纽约时报\n这背后，是 Netflix 的内容流失。因为迪士尼+的上线，Netflix 下架了一系列迪士尼 IP 内容。而 HBO，也拿回了《老友记》《生活大爆炸》、吉卜力工作室等作品的版权。同样的，老牌情景喜剧《办公室》也被 NBC 收回旗下。\n在订阅用户的观看时长中，Netflix 自制剧仅占总数的 30%，其它都来自外部版权。根据《第一财经》杂志的数据，2018 年 Netflix 播放时长前三的作品正是《办公室》《老友记》和《实习医生格蕾》。新内容可能是拉动用户增长的关键，但是对于老观众来说，他们更倾向于选择自己熟悉的作品。\n一直在原创内容发力的 Netflix，因为疫情的缘故，撤回了大部分制作计划。目前，Netflix 还没有任何大型的回归系列。\nNetflix 的模式多少像是一锤子买卖。用户观看完剧集后，就和这部剧不再发生联系。Netflix 旗下的《怪奇物语》《纸牌屋》有大批的死忠粉丝，但单一的订阅付费模式并不能完全挖掘这些 IP 的价值。这就出现了一种奇怪的现象：一边是手握钞票嗷嗷叫着「Shut up and take my money」的粉丝，一边是「无动于衷」的官方。\n图片来源：memegenetator\n去年 Netflix 自制纪录片《虎王》上线 10 天就有 3430 万人观看，是 Netflix 最成功的剧集。在电商品牌 Esty 上立刻出现了大量《虎王》周边。但无一列外，它们都是山寨的。\n在 Esty 上搜索「虎王」，仍有 8195 条结果。图片来源：Esty\n这就不难理解为什么 Netflix 要推出线上商城。在 Netflix 官方博客中，Netflix Shop 的负责人、消费品部门副总裁约什·西蒙（Josh Simon）如此写道：「我们喜欢看到好故事超越屏幕，成为人们生活的一部分。」「我们一直在考虑如何为粉丝们拓展我们的故事世界，从服装和玩具到身临其境的事件和游戏。这也是为什么今天我们推出 Netflix.shop，将其作为一个令人兴奋的新目的地，将精心策划的产品和丰富的故事结合在一个独特的 Netflix 购物体验中。」\n这字里行间都在说一件事：我们想要成为迪士尼！\n迪士尼魔法\n1929 年，有一个人到旅馆找到沃尔特·迪士尼（Walter Disney），拿出 300 美元，要求把米老鼠的形象印在写字桌上。这 300 美元成了迪士尼的第一笔「特许经营」收入。近百年后，这 300 美元成了 547 亿美元的大生意。\n翻开迪士尼的 IP 清单，你会发现这几乎是一本长不见底的名录。除了自有的原创 IP，如米老鼠、小熊维尼、迪士尼公主、狮子王等，迪士尼在 21 世纪的头 20 年还疯狂收购了皮克斯、漫威、卢卡斯影业、二十世纪福克斯。也就是说，除了米老鼠，你所熟悉的复仇者联盟、星球大战、阿凡达、玩具总动员这些 IP 全部都属于迪士尼。\n迪士尼旗下 IP 人物全家福。图片来源：psu.edu\n根据 TitleMax 2019 年的数据，全球最赚钱的 20 个 IP 中有 8 个来自迪士尼，累计经济价值达 3551.82 亿美元。其中小熊维尼、米老鼠、星球大战分别位列第 3、4、5 位。这些超过了 40 年甚至近百年的老 IP，依旧爆发出了惊人的生命力。\n其余 TOP 20 的迪士尼 IP 分别是第 7 位的迪士尼公主、11 位的漫威宇宙、12 位的蜘蛛侠、18 位的赛车总动员和 19 位的玩具总动员。图片来源：TITLEMAX\n在好莱坞，有一个著名的火车头理论：电影本身可以不赚钱，但它必须带动相关产品的发展。沃尔特·迪士尼显然深谙此道。早在 1957 年，他就画下了一张草图，清晰描述了迪士尼的商业模式。\n沃尔特·迪士尼画下的迪士尼商业模式。图片来源：kottke.org\n在这张草图中，电影制片厂处在了明确的中心位置，音乐、电视、授权商品、主题乐园和出版物都环绕在四周。拿杂志来说，电影为杂志提供了文章内容，杂志则可以宣传电影和迪士尼乐园。每一部分都紧密联系在一起，相互配合，相互补充。\n时至今日，迪士尼公司依旧没有脱离这套模式的底层逻辑。迪士尼从不把创作出的动画形象看成一次性消费品，而是作为一个可长久消费的金矿去深度挖掘。当迪士尼制作一部电影时，公司不仅仅是考虑电影本身，而如何将故事转化为商品、服务、体验和其它衍生产品。正如迪士尼前首席财务官杰·拉苏洛（Jay Rasulo）所说：「公司的每个方面都是面向品牌和特许经营的。」\n在今天，迪士尼的这种模式被叫做轮次收入。\n首先，迪士尼会以高成本推出以 IP 故事为核心的电影，通过票房赚取第一轮收入。\n然后，迪士尼会把影片版权卖给流媒体平台，赚取第二轮收入\n同时，迪士尼每推出一部新电影就会在主题乐园中增加相应的新人物，通过迪士尼乐园赚取第三轮收入。\n最后，通过特许经营、出版、零售等方式赚取第四轮收入。\n通过这四轮收入，迪士尼明明白白地「榨干」了每一个 IP 的利润。这些多种多样的盈利渠道使迪士尼比 Netflix 拥有了关键的优势，更加延续了旗下 IP 的生命力。\n为故事建立爱，把爱变成钱\n与迪士尼不同，Netflix 并没有建立线下门店的计划。目前，Netflix 已经和 Target、沃尔玛、亚马逊、H&M、丝芙兰等零售商签订了数百种周边产品的许可协议。\nNetflix 还和电商平台 Shopify 一起开发了线上商城系统。此前，Shopify 已经为 Allbirds、Kith、《纽约时报》和金·卡戴珊（Kim Kardashian）的品牌 Skims 提供过技术支持。\n而 Netflix Shop 的项目负责人西蒙，就曾经在迪士尼工作室呆过六年，担任制作和开发总监。\n这些信息似乎都在表明 Netflix 的决心：「嘿！我们可不是在玩票，我们是认真的！」\n多年来，Netflix 一直回避自己是一家娱乐公司还是科技公司。就在最近，Netflix 创始人黑斯廷斯宣称：「我们真的是一家娱乐公司。」\n按照亚马逊工作室（Amazon Studio）前高管马修·鲍尔（Matthew Ball）的说法，从本质上讲，一家娱乐公司只做三件事：\n\n创造/讲述故事\n为这些故事建立爱\n把爱变成钱\n\n按照这个标准来说，迪士尼无疑是这个星球上做得最好的公司。想想看，有多少小女孩想在逛迪士尼乐园的时候穿上爱莎的蓝色长裙？又有多少家长会为此买单？\n在讲故事和建立爱上，Netflix 已经做得足够好了，但它能把爱变成钱吗？\n哥伦比亚商学院的零售研究主任马克·A·科恩（Mark A Cohen）就表示了怀疑：「它们（Netflix 的热播剧）大多数的保质期都很短，不像迪士尼的 IP，那是一代人的漫长旅程。」\n尽管有非常多的不确定性，但当下无疑是 Netflix 财务状况最好的一年。这家公司在过去 10 年总共借款达 160 亿美元。去年年底，Netflix 在第四季度财报上表示，它不再需要寻求借款来为公司提供资金。换句话说，Netflix 成为了一家真正盈利的公司。\n而它的其它流媒体竞争对手，都还在亏着钱，包括迪士尼。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"DIS":0.9,"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1805,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}