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dong114
2021-06-18

Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?

全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息

Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":168161471,"tweetId":"168161471","gmtCreate":1623966368093,"gmtModify":1703824710065,"author":{"id":3567486329036828,"idStr":"3567486329036828","authorId":3567486329036828,"authorIdStr":"3567486329036828","name":"dong114","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a123b3f44d0b293a9717c62600ddbc3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168161471","repostId":1111690771,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111690771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623935139,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111690771?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 21:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111690771","media":"杠杆游戏","summary":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息","content":"Global attention, whether the United States is rate hike, and when will it be rate hike?On June 16, local time, the Federal Reserve issued an economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its forecasts for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021 respectively, and the dot plot released together showed that more than half of the FOMC members gave expectations for advance rate hike. The median forecast suggested that the Fed would rate hike 2 times before 2023.Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Overall, the Fed's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to emerge. What impact will this have on China's stock market and property market? Let's talk about the leverage game according to the details of this interest rate meeting.1. The hawkish turn signal deserves attention!Thirteen of the 18 committee members support at least one rate hike before the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is more confident in the U.S. economy. They believe that U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared with the forecast of 6.5% at the March meeting.The Federal Reserve also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the previous forecast of 2.2%. With the better recovery of the economy, price and monetary policy issues naturally come.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Huatai Futures made a statistic, and the leverage game felt very meaningful, and thanked you.The dot plot of the rate hike path of Fed officials shows that by the end of 2023, the Fed may rate hike twice.The June dot plot of the FOMC (the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee) showed that 13 of the 18 members supported at least one rate hike before the end of 2023, compared with 7 in March.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)Eleven members are expected to hold at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven members are expected to start rate hike in 2022. In March, it was 4.The median dot plot forecast in March implies that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2023.2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. The key is why?Of course, the Federal Reserve is preparing to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%. That is to say, in the face of excess liquidity, the Federal Reserve is actually making appropriate moves.However, it is very clear that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion in Treasury Bond and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month until substantial progress is made on the goals of full employment and price stability.Here, the leverage game needs to be said more. What is the goal of full employment and price stability?For example, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States in April and May was 278,000 and 559,000 respectively, both lower than expected. Compared with the pre-black swan level, the number of employed people in May still decreased by about 7.6 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart source | Northeast Securities (thanks hereby)The Fed expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% in 2021 (the same as its March forecast), and to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively-at this point, returning to very low levels, probably considered qualified;At the same time, Powell believes that inflation may remain high in the coming months before it eases-the price indicator should be considered to be up to standard.Therefore, my conclusion is that what Americans care about is the economy, simply put, employment indicators.3. The normalization of U.S. monetary policy may accelerate, which deserves attention, but the stock market should be worry-free for the time being.Judging from the above changes in the number of Fed members' attitudes towards rate hike, the leverage game can basically be considered that the pace of rate hike is much faster than before.While there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. At the same time, Powell is ready to discuss reducing bond purchases, and the hawks are undoubtedly revealed. Then the US dollar will be supported in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will mainly fluctuate.But because liquidity in China and the United States is generally loose. For example, our M2 was 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.At the same time, no matter the central banks of China and the United States, the communication with the market is relatively full and transparent, and no one will suddenly change monetary policy.Therefore, the stock market will not panic as a whole, and the trend downward trend will not occur.4. Domestic demand is still a bit weak, and external demand supports high production boom. Real estate and investment should not be too cold at this time.June 16 was a very interesting day. The United States announced some statements of their interest rate meeting, and we released a number of economic indicators.We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, and external demand is still an important support.According to the statistics of Beijing Capital Securities, for example, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in May was 6.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart source | Beijing Capital Securities (thanks hereby)The compound growth rate of export delivery value has dropped significantly, echoing the sharp drop in exports in May. However, without the high growth of exports, industrial data will decline even more.Generally speaking, external demand has peaked and fallen, and production and exports will have a slight impact in the next step.In terms of fixed investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the newly started housing area has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, and the completed area has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive to 5.0% year-on-year. Real estate investment is still supported in the short term, and there is certain pressure for a long time.At the same time, with the strengthening of debt management, there is a high probability of fixed investment falling.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Social retail sales increased by 12.4% in May, slightly lower than market expectations of 12.8%, and the previous value was 17.7%.Generally speaking, the leverage game believes that domestic demand is so-so and exports have peaked. Then, real estate suppression is suppression and cannot be made too ugly.5. It is worth noting whether there is a liquidity inflection point in the United States in the third quarter.Regardless of global housing prices, commodities, or the U.S. stock market, this round of surge in asset prices is essentially dominated by liquidity.Now the question is, is there an inflection point in U.S. liquidity in the third quarter? As mentioned in the leverage game above, the Federal Reserve has signals of shrinking, and the excess reserve interest rate has increased slightly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)In the third quarter, the leverage game believes that the first amplitude is small, and the second is a test. At the same time, the last round of cards played by China's central bank has proved that \"I am the mainstay\"-as long as the United States does not rate hike, the world trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high returns should not come.From this perspective alone, in 2021, my country's stock market will not be bearish; The property market only shows an extremely strict attitude towards speculation. As mentioned above, economic stability still needs it.It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss cutting QE, and began cutting QE at the end of 2021 or early 2022. These are basically within market expectations.Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on the monetary policy of any country.6. Conclusion: The stock market will basically not be affected by the United States in 2021, and the property market will be dominated by me.The former leverage game means, don't worry about liquidity.What I mean by the latter is that the property market will crack down on speculation throughout 2021. However, the local trading ability of the property market is becoming more and more proficient, and it has always had its own way to ensure a certain price and sales volume.Besides, the water hasn't decreased.","source":"lsy1574902984297","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hawkish Signal! 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The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n杠杆游戏2021-06-17 21:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nGlobal attention, whether the United States is rate hike, and when will it be rate hike?On June 16, local time, the Federal Reserve issued an economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its forecasts for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021 respectively, and the dot plot released together showed that more than half of the FOMC members gave expectations for advance rate hike. The median forecast suggested that the Fed would rate hike 2 times before 2023.Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Overall, the Fed's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to emerge. What impact will this have on China's stock market and property market? Let's talk about the leverage game according to the details of this interest rate meeting.1. The hawkish turn signal deserves attention!Thirteen of the 18 committee members support at least one rate hike before the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is more confident in the U.S. economy. They believe that U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared with the forecast of 6.5% at the March meeting.The Federal Reserve also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the previous forecast of 2.2%. With the better recovery of the economy, price and monetary policy issues naturally come.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Huatai Futures made a statistic, and the leverage game felt very meaningful, and thanked you.The dot plot of the rate hike path of Fed officials shows that by the end of 2023, the Fed may rate hike twice.The June dot plot of the FOMC (the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee) showed that 13 of the 18 members supported at least one rate hike before the end of 2023, compared with 7 in March.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)Eleven members are expected to hold at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven members are expected to start rate hike in 2022. In March, it was 4.The median dot plot forecast in March implies that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2023.2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. The key is why?Of course, the Federal Reserve is preparing to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%. That is to say, in the face of excess liquidity, the Federal Reserve is actually making appropriate moves.However, it is very clear that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion in Treasury Bond and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month until substantial progress is made on the goals of full employment and price stability.Here, the leverage game needs to be said more. What is the goal of full employment and price stability?For example, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States in April and May was 278,000 and 559,000 respectively, both lower than expected. Compared with the pre-black swan level, the number of employed people in May still decreased by about 7.6 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart source | Northeast Securities (thanks hereby)The Fed expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% in 2021 (the same as its March forecast), and to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively-at this point, returning to very low levels, probably considered qualified;At the same time, Powell believes that inflation may remain high in the coming months before it eases-the price indicator should be considered to be up to standard.Therefore, my conclusion is that what Americans care about is the economy, simply put, employment indicators.3. The normalization of U.S. monetary policy may accelerate, which deserves attention, but the stock market should be worry-free for the time being.Judging from the above changes in the number of Fed members' attitudes towards rate hike, the leverage game can basically be considered that the pace of rate hike is much faster than before.While there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. At the same time, Powell is ready to discuss reducing bond purchases, and the hawks are undoubtedly revealed. Then the US dollar will be supported in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will mainly fluctuate.But because liquidity in China and the United States is generally loose. For example, our M2 was 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.At the same time, no matter the central banks of China and the United States, the communication with the market is relatively full and transparent, and no one will suddenly change monetary policy.Therefore, the stock market will not panic as a whole, and the trend downward trend will not occur.4. Domestic demand is still a bit weak, and external demand supports high production boom. Real estate and investment should not be too cold at this time.June 16 was a very interesting day. The United States announced some statements of their interest rate meeting, and we released a number of economic indicators.We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, and external demand is still an important support.According to the statistics of Beijing Capital Securities, for example, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in May was 6.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart source | Beijing Capital Securities (thanks hereby)The compound growth rate of export delivery value has dropped significantly, echoing the sharp drop in exports in May. However, without the high growth of exports, industrial data will decline even more.Generally speaking, external demand has peaked and fallen, and production and exports will have a slight impact in the next step.In terms of fixed investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the newly started housing area has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, and the completed area has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive to 5.0% year-on-year. Real estate investment is still supported in the short term, and there is certain pressure for a long time.At the same time, with the strengthening of debt management, there is a high probability of fixed investment falling.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Social retail sales increased by 12.4% in May, slightly lower than market expectations of 12.8%, and the previous value was 17.7%.Generally speaking, the leverage game believes that domestic demand is so-so and exports have peaked. Then, real estate suppression is suppression and cannot be made too ugly.5. It is worth noting whether there is a liquidity inflection point in the United States in the third quarter.Regardless of global housing prices, commodities, or the U.S. stock market, this round of surge in asset prices is essentially dominated by liquidity.Now the question is, is there an inflection point in U.S. liquidity in the third quarter? As mentioned in the leverage game above, the Federal Reserve has signals of shrinking, and the excess reserve interest rate has increased slightly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)In the third quarter, the leverage game believes that the first amplitude is small, and the second is a test. At the same time, the last round of cards played by China's central bank has proved that \"I am the mainstay\"-as long as the United States does not rate hike, the world trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high returns should not come.From this perspective alone, in 2021, my country's stock market will not be bearish; The property market only shows an extremely strict attitude towards speculation. As mentioned above, economic stability still needs it.It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss cutting QE, and began cutting QE at the end of 2021 or early 2022. These are basically within market expectations.Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on the monetary policy of any country.6. Conclusion: The stock market will basically not be affected by the United States in 2021, and the property market will be dominated by me.The former leverage game means, don't worry about liquidity.What I mean by the latter is that the property market will crack down on speculation throughout 2021. However, the local trading ability of the property market is becoming more and more proficient, and it has always had its own way to ensure a certain price and sales volume.Besides, the water hasn't decreased.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw\">杠杆游戏</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111690771","content_text":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息的预期，中位数预测暗示，美联储将在2023年前加息2次。\n利率或从0.1%升至0.6%。\n\n总体来说，美联储对物价的担忧提高，鹰派信号初现。这对我国股市、楼市会有什么影响，杠杆游戏根据此次议息会议的细节，展开谈一谈。\n1、鹰派转向信号值得重视！\n18位委员中有13人支持在2023年底前，至少加息1次。美联储对美国经济比较有信心，他们认为2021年美国GDP将增长7.0%，而3月份会议的预测为6.5%。\n美联储还将2023年的实际GDP预测，从之前预期的2.2%上调至2.4%。伴随经济的较好复苏，物价和货币政策问题自然来了。\n\n华泰期货做了一个统计，杠杆游戏觉得非常有意义，并致谢。\n美联储官员的加息路径点阵图显示，到2023年底，美联储或许将加息2次。\nFOMC（美联储的公开市场委员会）6月点阵图显示，18 位委员中有13人支持在2023 年底前至少加息1次，而3月为7位。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n11位委员预计到2023年底至少加息2次，7名委员预计在2022年开始加息。3月为4位。\n而3月份的点阵图中位数预测值暗示，到2023年底前不会加息。\n2、美联储主席鲍威尔总体认为，现在讨论加息还为时过早，关键是为什么？\n当然，美联储准备将超额准备金利率（IOER）从0.1%，调整至0.15%，也就是说，面对流动性过剩，美联储其实也在适当出手。\n不过说得很清楚，将继续每月增持至少800亿美元的国债，以及至少400亿美元的住房抵押贷款支持证券，直到充分就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进展。\n这里杠杆游戏要多一句嘴，什么算充分就业和物价稳定目标？\n比如美国4月、5月新增非农就业人口分别为27.8万和55.9万，均低于预期。与黑天鹅前水平相比，5月就业人数依然减少了约760万。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n美联储预计2021年失业率将降至4.5%（与3月的预测持平），2022年和2023年失业率将分别降至3.8%和3.5%——到此，回到非常低的水平，大概算是合格；\n同时鲍威尔认为通货膨胀可能在未来几个月继续居高不下，然后才会有所缓和——物价指标应该算达标。\n所以，我的结论就是，美国人在乎的是经济，简单说就是就业指标。\n3、美国货币政策正常化可能加快，值得重视，但股市应该暂时无忧。\n从上文美联储委员对加息的态度人数变化看，杠杆游戏基本可以认为，加息节奏较此前大大加快。\n虽然目前还没有加息的信号，但提前到来是可能的。同时，鲍威尔已经准备讨论缩减购债，鹰派显露无疑，那么美元短期内有支撑，人民币汇率震荡为主。\n但因为中美流动性总体宽松。如我们的M2，5月末227.54万亿元，同比增长8.3%，增速比上月末高0.2个百分点。\n同时无论中美央行，与市场的沟通都较为充分、透明，谁都不会货币政策突然转向。\n所以股市总体不会恐慌，趋势性下跌不会出现。\n4、内需还是有点弱，外需支撑生产高景气，房地产和投资这个时候不能太凉。\n6月16日是很有意思的一天，美国通报他们的议息会议部分声明，我们发布了多项经济指标。\n我们可以看，工业生产其实略走弱，外需仍是重要支撑。\n首创证券统计发现，比如5月规上工业增加值两年平均增速为6.6%，较前值略降0.2个百分点。\n\n图表来源|首创证券（特此感谢）\n出口交货值复合增速有较大回落，与5月出口大幅回落相呼应，但如果没有出口的高增长，工业数据会下滑更多。\n总体来说，外需见顶回落，生产和出口下一步略有影响是一定的。\n而固投方面，同比增长15.4%。但房屋新开工面积连续两个月负增长，竣工面积本月大幅提速，同比转正为5.0%，短期内房地产投资仍有支撑，长期存在一定的压力。\n同时债务管理的加强，固定投资的回落大概率。\n\n5月社零销售增长12.4%，小幅低于市场预期的12.8%，前值为17.7%。\n总的来说，杠杆游戏认为，内需马马虎虎，出口见顶，那么，房地产打压归打压，不能搞得太难看。\n5、三季度美国是否有流动性拐点，值得注意。\n无论全球房价，还是大宗商品，以及美国股市，资产价格大涨本质这一轮都是流动性主导的。\n现在问题来了，三季度美国流动性是否有拐点？上文杠杆游戏写了，美联储有缩量的信号，超额准备金利率略有提高。\n\n图表来源|浙商证券（特此感谢）\n3季度杠杆游戏认为，第一幅度小，第二是个试探，同时我国央行上一轮的出牌已经证明，“以我为主”——只要美国不加息，资金回美追求高收益的世界趋势，应该不会到来。\n单这个角度说，2021年，我国股市不至于看空；楼市，只是对投机表现出异常严厉的态度，如上所述，经济的稳定还需要它。\n需要注意的是，3季度，比如7、8月，美联储始正式讨论削减QE，2021年底或2022年初开始削减QE，这些基本已在市场预期内。\n尽管如此，这对任何国家的货币政策，起码都是掣肘。\n6、结论：2021年股市基本不会受美国影响，楼市以我为主。前者杠杆游戏的意思是，不要担心流动性。\n后者我的意思是，楼市打击投机，将贯穿2021年始终。但地方对楼市的操盘能力，也是越来越纯熟，保障一定的价格和销量，从来都有自己办法。\n何况，水又没减少。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1221,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}