??-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community

Like
Comment
Favorite

sgczhao
2021-06-11

Terrible Impact or September Coming! New Debt King: A huge amount of water released seriously distorts the economy

美国联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型

Terrible Impact or September Coming! New Debt King: A huge amount of water released seriously distorts the economy

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment

Top
Latest

No comments yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":181926274,"tweetId":"181926274","gmtCreate":1623371243998,"gmtModify":1704201825194,"author":{"id":3564398777411265,"idStr":"3564398777411265","authorId":3564398777411265,"authorIdStr":"3564398777411265","name":"sgczhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/463ea3f31ed77071863bce732e8e8336","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>??</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>??</body></html>","text":"??","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181926274","repostId":1174161709,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174161709","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623329027,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174161709?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 20:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Terrible Impact or September Coming! New Debt King: A huge amount of water released seriously distorts the economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174161709","media":"腾讯美股 ","summary":"美国联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型","content":"The U.S. federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program extends the time people can receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covers self-employed, part-time and gig workers, as well as mixed-income unemployment compensation (MEUC) program to support those who are self-employed and mixed-income earners. All these plans will expire on September 6th this year. Gundlach, the new debt king, predicted that by then, the economy would suffer a \"major impact\", because people's discretionary income would be greatly reduced.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1128c45336de836d2faa4cd00f221686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand, it is the slow restart in the post-epidemic era, and on the other hand, it is the fiscal stimulus of the federal government. According to Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder of Double Line Capital, the interaction of the two has caused \"serious distortions\" to the US economy.The famous \"debt king\" pointed out in a webcast on Tuesday that at the national level, countless enterprises, large and small, are finding it extremely difficult to recruit enough people to keep the company running and expand its operations. Although \"a large number of jobs are vacant, they can't be filled in time, all because the federal government is competing with private enterprises\". Double Line Capital manages more than $140 billion in investments. What Gundlach is referring to here is obviously too generous unemployment benefits. During Tuesday's more than 90-minute webcast, he also talked about his many other views on the economy in the post-epidemic era.Inflation expectationsGundlach said that although inflation is rising rapidly now, it may only be temporary. At present, food prices are high, and manufacturing inventory levels are at their lowest point in nearly two decades. \"None of this is obviously likely to put downward pressure on inflation.\"The producer price index (PPI), which measures the long-term changes in the sales prices of goods and services in the United States, has also been rising, but no one knows how long this rise will last. Gundlach predicted that even if the price will continue to rise, the rise rate of the index may slow down.Distorted departments\"What we're not really looking at right now are special areas of the economy, such as used cars,\" Gundlach analyzed. \"The price of these goods has almost doubled in the past year.\" He also recently found that the price of used trucks is now close to that of new trucks, and in fact they are almost out of stock across the United States. \"This situation is clearly unsustainable.\" Gundlach added that these high prices are clearly \"not enough to create a disinflationary trend.\"Housing inventory is also a \"highly distorted\" sector of the economy. Gundlach pointed out that the residential inventory in the United States has now dropped to the only level seen in many years, and in some areas, there are no homes for sale. He said that in many places, the number of real estate brokers is even ten times that of the houses they sell. \"This is not good news for brokerage houses\".Demand for residential construction and renovation materials also remained high, directly leading to the explosion of lumber prices, joining the army of skyrocketing prices of other commodities, but Gundlach believes that these troubles may have peaked.Office real estate prices continue to plummet, and occupancy rates continue to remain low. \"Although the recovery in all fields of the economy is in progress, and it has also led to the emergence of these inflationary pressures,\" the process of everyone returning to the company office is very slow. Gundlach predicted that \"unless there is a recurrence of the epidemic,\" the change of going back to office will usher in a peak by the end of summer.But even so, I'm afraid the business operation will not be the same as before. \"Many people have expressed the hope of working from home more days. Now that virtual technology is so developed, reality has proven that in some cases, working from home can actually improve efficiency because a lot of communication time is removed.\"Overseas Stocks vs. USDFor many years, the performance of the U.S. stock market has been better than that of overseas stock markets. Recently, however, the gap between the two is narrowing. \"Non-U.S. stocks have started to keep pace with U.S. stocks and no longer let the latter outperform.\" Gundlach noted that if the dollar starts to weaken, the situation could become more favorable for overseas stocks. He has recently started investing in overseas stock markets for the first time in his career.\"There are strong signs that the dollar will weaken in the medium to long term,\" Gundlach added, adding that in the short term, he would be neutral on the dollar for the time being.From a long-term perspective, the eventual decline of the US dollar exchange rate is an almost unchangeable trend. After all, the trade deficit and budget deficit of the United States have now \"doubled compared with the level we once thought was terrible\". After Americans get their stimulus checks from the government, many people use them to buy products, many of which are produced in Asia, which can only further widen the trade deficit.\"Retail investors have suddenly emerged recently, and their strength is astonishing. In fact, it is also a distortion, and its root lies in the discretionary income from the government.\"Unemployment Claims' Shock 'The number of weekly initial jobless claims has inevitably increased significantly during the pandemic, and this data has not yet returned to normal levels. Although the unemployment rate in various states has begun to normalize, it is completely \"delusional\" to truly normalize it. Gundlach said, this is because the federal stimulus benefits are still being distributed.The federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program extends the time people can receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covers self-employed, part-time and gig workers, as well as the Mixed-Income Unemployment Compensation (MEUC) program to support those who are self-employed and mixed-income earners. All these plans will expire on September 6th this year. Gundlach predicted that by then, the economy would suffer a \"major impact\", because people's discretionary income would be greatly reduced.This shock may reverse some of the current jaw-dropping momentum, such as the severe scarcity of homes and cars. Gundlach said that this may be \"the strongest basis for thinking that inflation will only be a temporary phenomenon-but it also means that the economy may suffer a major reversal as a result\".","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Terrible Impact or September Coming! New Debt King: A huge amount of water released seriously distorts the economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTerrible Impact or September Coming! New Debt King: A huge amount of water released seriously distorts the economy\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n腾讯美股 2021-06-10 20:43\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program extends the time people can receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covers self-employed, part-time and gig workers, as well as mixed-income unemployment compensation (MEUC) program to support those who are self-employed and mixed-income earners. All these plans will expire on September 6th this year. Gundlach, the new debt king, predicted that by then, the economy would suffer a \"major impact\", because people's discretionary income would be greatly reduced.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1128c45336de836d2faa4cd00f221686\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand, it is the slow restart in the post-epidemic era, and on the other hand, it is the fiscal stimulus of the federal government. According to Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder of Double Line Capital, the interaction of the two has caused \"serious distortions\" to the US economy.The famous \"debt king\" pointed out in a webcast on Tuesday that at the national level, countless enterprises, large and small, are finding it extremely difficult to recruit enough people to keep the company running and expand its operations. Although \"a large number of jobs are vacant, they can't be filled in time, all because the federal government is competing with private enterprises\". Double Line Capital manages more than $140 billion in investments. What Gundlach is referring to here is obviously too generous unemployment benefits. During Tuesday's more than 90-minute webcast, he also talked about his many other views on the economy in the post-epidemic era.Inflation expectationsGundlach said that although inflation is rising rapidly now, it may only be temporary. At present, food prices are high, and manufacturing inventory levels are at their lowest point in nearly two decades. \"None of this is obviously likely to put downward pressure on inflation.\"The producer price index (PPI), which measures the long-term changes in the sales prices of goods and services in the United States, has also been rising, but no one knows how long this rise will last. Gundlach predicted that even if the price will continue to rise, the rise rate of the index may slow down.Distorted departments\"What we're not really looking at right now are special areas of the economy, such as used cars,\" Gundlach analyzed. \"The price of these goods has almost doubled in the past year.\" He also recently found that the price of used trucks is now close to that of new trucks, and in fact they are almost out of stock across the United States. \"This situation is clearly unsustainable.\" Gundlach added that these high prices are clearly \"not enough to create a disinflationary trend.\"Housing inventory is also a \"highly distorted\" sector of the economy. Gundlach pointed out that the residential inventory in the United States has now dropped to the only level seen in many years, and in some areas, there are no homes for sale. He said that in many places, the number of real estate brokers is even ten times that of the houses they sell. \"This is not good news for brokerage houses\".Demand for residential construction and renovation materials also remained high, directly leading to the explosion of lumber prices, joining the army of skyrocketing prices of other commodities, but Gundlach believes that these troubles may have peaked.Office real estate prices continue to plummet, and occupancy rates continue to remain low. \"Although the recovery in all fields of the economy is in progress, and it has also led to the emergence of these inflationary pressures,\" the process of everyone returning to the company office is very slow. Gundlach predicted that \"unless there is a recurrence of the epidemic,\" the change of going back to office will usher in a peak by the end of summer.But even so, I'm afraid the business operation will not be the same as before. \"Many people have expressed the hope of working from home more days. Now that virtual technology is so developed, reality has proven that in some cases, working from home can actually improve efficiency because a lot of communication time is removed.\"Overseas Stocks vs. USDFor many years, the performance of the U.S. stock market has been better than that of overseas stock markets. Recently, however, the gap between the two is narrowing. \"Non-U.S. stocks have started to keep pace with U.S. stocks and no longer let the latter outperform.\" Gundlach noted that if the dollar starts to weaken, the situation could become more favorable for overseas stocks. He has recently started investing in overseas stock markets for the first time in his career.\"There are strong signs that the dollar will weaken in the medium to long term,\" Gundlach added, adding that in the short term, he would be neutral on the dollar for the time being.From a long-term perspective, the eventual decline of the US dollar exchange rate is an almost unchangeable trend. After all, the trade deficit and budget deficit of the United States have now \"doubled compared with the level we once thought was terrible\". After Americans get their stimulus checks from the government, many people use them to buy products, many of which are produced in Asia, which can only further widen the trade deficit.\"Retail investors have suddenly emerged recently, and their strength is astonishing. In fact, it is also a distortion, and its root lies in the discretionary income from the government.\"Unemployment Claims' Shock 'The number of weekly initial jobless claims has inevitably increased significantly during the pandemic, and this data has not yet returned to normal levels. Although the unemployment rate in various states has begun to normalize, it is completely \"delusional\" to truly normalize it. Gundlach said, this is because the federal stimulus benefits are still being distributed.The federal government's Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PUEC) program extends the time people can receive weekly unemployment benefits, while the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program covers self-employed, part-time and gig workers, as well as the Mixed-Income Unemployment Compensation (MEUC) program to support those who are self-employed and mixed-income earners. All these plans will expire on September 6th this year. Gundlach predicted that by then, the economy would suffer a \"major impact\", because people's discretionary income would be greatly reduced.This shock may reverse some of the current jaw-dropping momentum, such as the severe scarcity of homes and cars. Gundlach said that this may be \"the strongest basis for thinking that inflation will only be a temporary phenomenon-but it also means that the economy may suffer a major reversal as a result\".\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/D0R8RIuBdSQ_YXcKnU3ksQ\">腾讯美股 </a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1128c45336de836d2faa4cd00f221686","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/D0R8RIuBdSQ_YXcKnU3ksQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174161709","content_text":"美国联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型收入者提供支持。所有这些计划都将在今年9月6日期满。新债王冈拉克预言说，到那时，经济就会受到“重大冲击”，因为人们的可任意支配所得将大幅度减少。\n一方面是后疫情时代的重启步履迟缓，一方面是联邦政府的财政刺激，在双线资本创始人冈拉克（JeffreyGundlach）看来，两者交相作用，已经使得美国经济受到“严重扭曲”。\n这位鼎鼎大名的“债王”在周二的网络广播当中指出，全美层面，无数大大小小的企业都发现，想要招募到足够公司运转下去和扩大经营的人手正变得极端困难。虽然“为数众多的岗位都空缺着，但是却无法及时得到填补，这都是因为联邦政府在同私人企业竞争的缘故”。双线资本旗下管理着超过1400亿美元投资，冈拉克这里所指的，显然是过于慷慨大度的失业救济补贴。在周二长达九十多分钟的网络广播当中，他还谈到了自己对后疫情时代经济的许多其他看法。\n通货膨胀预期\n冈拉克表示，虽然通货膨胀现在正在急速抬头，但是这真的可能只是暂时性的。目前，食品价格高企，制造业库存水平处在近二十年来的最低点。“这些显然都不可能对通货膨胀造成下行的压力。”\n度量全美商品和服务销售价格长期变化的生产者价格指数（PPI）也一直在上涨，但是没有人知道这涨势会持续多久。冈拉克预言说，即便价格还会继续走高，但是指数的上涨速度可能将会放缓。\n被扭曲的部门\n“我们现在并没有真正认真去研究的，其实是经济当中的一些特殊领域，比如二手汽车。”冈拉克分析道，“这些商品的价格在过去一年时间里几乎翻了一番。”他最近还发现，现在二手卡车的价格已经和新卡车相去无几，而且事实上几乎是在全美范围内断货了。“这种局面显然是不可持久的。”冈拉克补充说，这些高企的价格显然“不足以形成反通货膨胀趋势”。\n住宅库存也是经济当中被“高度扭曲”的一个部门。冈拉克指出，现在全美住宅库存已经跌到了多年以来仅见的水平，在一些地区，甚至已经找不到待售的住宅了。他说，在许多地方，房地产经纪商的数量甚至要十倍于他们销售的住宅，“这对于经纪行来说可不是什么好消息”。\n住宅建筑和翻修材料的需求也居高不下，直接导致木材价格大爆炸，加入了其他商品价格暴涨的大军，但是冈拉克认为，这些麻烦可能已经见顶了。\n办公房地产价格还在持续暴跌，入住率持续保持低水平。“虽然经济各个领域当中的复苏都在进行当中，而且还导致了这些通货膨胀压力的出现”，但是大家回公司办公的进程却很迟缓。冈拉克预计说，“除非疫情出现反复”，不然到夏季结束的时候，回去办公的变化就会迎来峰值。\n不过即便如此，企业经营恐怕也不会再像以前那样了。“许多人都表示，希望多一点在家办公的日子，现在虚拟技术已经如此发达，而且现实已经证明，在一些情况下，因为去除了大量沟通的时间，在家上班反而能够提高效率。”\n海外股票与美元\n此前的许多年时间当中，美国股市的表现一直都要好于海外股市。不过近期以来，两者之间的差距正在缩小。“非美股票已经开始与美国股票表现并驾齐驱，不再让后者专美于前。”冈拉克指出，如果美元汇率开始走低，局面就可能变得对海外股票更加有利。他近期已经职业生涯第一次开始投资海外股市。\n“有充分的迹象显示，中期到长期之内，美元将会趋向疲软。”冈拉克补充道，只是短期之内，他会暂时对美元持中立立场。\n长期角度看来，美元汇率最终走低已经是近乎不可改变的趋势，毕竟美国的贸易赤字和预算赤字现在已经“较之我们曾经以为很糟糕的水平又翻了一番”。美国人从政府拿到他们的刺激支票之后，很多人都将其用于购买产品了，而这些产品当中许多都是在亚洲生产的，而这只能让贸易赤字进一步扩大。\n“散户投资者近来异军突起，强势惊人，其实同样是一种扭曲，而其根源就在于来自政府的可任意支配收入。”\n失业救济“冲击”\n在疫情期间，每周首度申报失业救济人数不可避免地大幅增加，而这一数据至今尚未恢复正常水平。各州的失业率虽然已经开始趋向常态，但是要真正正常化完全是“妄想”，冈拉克说，这是因为联邦刺激福利还在持续发放。\n联邦政府的疫情紧急失业补偿（PUEC）计划延长了人们能够领取周失业救济的时间，而疫情失业援助（PUA）计划则覆盖了自雇、兼职和零工人群，还有混合收入者失业补偿（MEUC）计划，为那些自雇者和混合型收入者提供支持。所有这些计划都将在今年9月6日期满。冈拉克预言说，到那时，经济就会受到“重大冲击”，因为人们的可任意支配所得将大幅度减少。\n这一冲击也许会扭转目前一些令人瞠目结舌的势头，比如住宅和汽车的严重稀缺。冈拉克说，这也许是“认为通货膨胀将只是暂时性现象的最有力根据——不过，这同时也意味着经济可能因此遭遇重大反转”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1944,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}