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2021-06-15

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Beware of the risk of US dollar rebound, the RMB exchange rate is easy to depreciate but difficult to rise in the second half of the

近一段时间以来，人民币汇率走势牵动着市场神经。自央行决定上调金融机构外汇存款准备金率后，人民币对美元汇率已由6.35的近期高点贬至6.39上方。市场分析师普遍认为，人民币汇率趋近贬值拐点，下半年大概率会出现贬值压力。　　影响人民币汇率的因素是多方面的，其中美元升值风险将是最直接的一项。华创证券首席宏观分析师张瑜预计，美元在中长期会有较大反弹，人民币或已接近贬值拐点。预计美联储大概率将在三季度释放QE缩减的信号。

Beware of the risk of US dollar rebound, the RMB exchange rate is easy to depreciate but difficult to rise in the second half of the

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Recently, the trend of RMB exchange rate has affected the nerves of the market. Since the central bank decided to raise the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has depreciated from the recent high of 6.35 to above 6.39. Market analysts generally believe that the RMB exchange rate is approaching the inflection point of depreciation, and there is a high probability that there will be depreciation pressure in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89cccc1aedcab6c848cb4f7d42a07318\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are many factors affecting the RMB exchange rate, among which the risk of US dollar appreciation will be the most direct one.</p><p>Higher U.S. bond yields in the first quarter of this year pushed the US Dollar Index to appreciate in stages. At the end of March, the US Dollar Index reached a staged high of 93.18. Since then, short-term factors such as faster vaccination in Europe have weakened the US dollar in the past two months, but the US Dollar Index has recently found a strong support level around 90, and the market speculates that this is likely to be the medium-term bottom of the US dollar. Yu zhang, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities, predicts that the US dollar will rebound significantly in the medium and long term, and the RMB may be close to the inflection point of depreciation.</p><p>All signs of universal immunization, economic recovery, rising inflation, and tightening monetary policy are pointing to the final realization of the logic of dollar appreciation.</p><p>Developed countries such as the United States are expected to basically achieve herd immunity in the third quarter, and PMIs in Europe and the United States have reached new highs recently.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>Dong Qi, chief macro analyst, said that this shows that thanks to vaccination, the momentum of economic recovery is significantly strengthened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601328\">Bank of Communications</a>Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Center for Financial Research, said that a strong recovery of the U.S. economy in the second half of the year may lead to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar again.</p><p>Recently, 27 states in the United States have announced tightening of unemployment benefits. Dong Qi predicts that the job market will gradually return to the normal repair track and will not constrain the Fed's tightening of monetary policy. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely release a signal of QE reduction in the third quarter.</p><p>At present, the new U.S. government is planning and promoting a new round of fiscal stimulus plan, and plans to launch a $6 trillion fiscal stimulus plan in the near future. \"Although there will be a series of difficulties in the implementation of this plan, considering the optimistic expectations for the future of the U.S. economy and the actual effects of some measures, it may become one of the driving forces for the phased strengthening of the U.S. dollar.\" said Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment and director of the institute. Yu Zhang also pointed out that the United States is still insisting on fiscal stimulus, which is beneficial to the economic benefits and inflation of the United States.</p><p>As global commodity prices continue to rise and fluctuate at high levels, U.S. inflation levels have risen significantly. The U.S. CPI announced on June 10 rose 5% year-on-year, hitting a new high in nearly 13 years. The market expects that the Fed's tightening of monetary policy may be imminent. Recently, the the US Dollar Index has encountered strong downward resistance around 90, and it can't break through for a long time. The possibility of a sharp rebound in the future cannot be ruled out.</p><p>\"In the second half of 2021, the expectation of rate hike from the Federal Reserve will return, and the policy window of rate hike will be revealed at the end of the year and early next year.\" Lian Ping said. Yu zhang said that the United States, or the first developed country in the world to shift its monetary policy, has a higher probability of the appreciation of the US dollar. Lian Ping further pointed out that once there is a rate hike in the United States, and my country will most likely not follow up quickly, the interest rate spread between China and the United States will further narrow, and there may even be a periodic reverse interest rate spread, which will push the US dollar to strengthen.</p><p>From the perspective of US dollar liquidity, Dong Qi pointed out that the marginal inflection point of US dollar liquidity is approaching. According to the bond issuance plan announced by the U.S. Treasury Department, the U.S. Treasury Department is expected to significantly increase the net financing scale of the private market to US $821 billion in the third quarter, compared with US $401 billion and US $463 billion in the first two quarters respectively; The U.S. Treasury TGA account will also rise from $450 billion at the end of July to $750 billion in September. Dong Qi pointed out that it can be seen that the U.S. Treasury Department plans to increase the scale of bond issuance in the third quarter, and the TGA account will be re-expanded after bottoming out at the end of July, thus completing the transition from water release to water pumping.</p><p>In addition, Lian Ping also pointed out that at present, the US dollar and the US Treasury Bond market are still important safe havens in the world. Global geopolitical risks will cause international safe-haven funds to favor US dollar bonds, pushing up US dollar demand in stages.</p><p>In the final analysis, economic fundamentals are the decisive factor in the exchange rate. Dong Qi pointed out that as the pace of economic recovery in the United States accelerates, the comparative advantage of China's economic fundamentals will narrow. Tang Jianwei believes that China's economy will be high at first and then low in 2021, while the United States and the world may be low at first and then high. In the second half of the year, the economic growth gap between China and the United States will narrow or put pressure on the RMB exchange rate.</p><p>\"Therefore, although the RMB exchange rate has continued to rise in recent times, it will not go out of the unilateral upward trend, and the RMB exchange rate will face depreciation pressure in the second half of the year.\" Tang Jianwei pointed out that although China's foreign exchange administration has withdrawn from its normalized intervention in the foreign exchange market, it will still guide market expectations through some policy tools and promote the two-way fluctuation characteristics of the RMB exchange rate.</p><p>Pan Gongsheng, Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, spoke at the 13th<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600663\">Lujiazui</a>The forum stated that macro-prudential management and expectation guidance will be strengthened to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. From the perspective of corporate financial stability, Pan Gongsheng emphasized that corporate exchange rate risk management should adhere to the principle of serving the main business and \"exchange rate risk neutrality\", prudently arrange the currency structure of assets and liabilities, and avoid \"pro-cyclical\" and \"streaking\" behaviors of foreign exchange risk management. Don't bet on the appreciation or depreciation of RMB. If you gamble for a long time, you will lose.</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beware of the risk of US dollar rebound, the RMB exchange rate is easy to depreciate but difficult to rise in the second half of the</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeware of the risk of US dollar rebound, the RMB exchange rate is easy to depreciate but difficult to rise in the second half of the\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金融时报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 08:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>All signs of universal immunization, economic recovery, rising inflation, and tightening monetary policy are pointing to the final realization of the logic of dollar appreciation. Recently, the trend of RMB exchange rate has affected the nerves of the market. Since the central bank decided to raise the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has depreciated from the recent high of 6.35 to above 6.39. Market analysts generally believe that the RMB exchange rate is approaching the inflection point of depreciation, and there is a high probability that there will be depreciation pressure in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89cccc1aedcab6c848cb4f7d42a07318\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are many factors affecting the RMB exchange rate, among which the risk of US dollar appreciation will be the most direct one.</p><p>Higher U.S. bond yields in the first quarter of this year pushed the US Dollar Index to appreciate in stages. At the end of March, the US Dollar Index reached a staged high of 93.18. Since then, short-term factors such as faster vaccination in Europe have weakened the US dollar in the past two months, but the US Dollar Index has recently found a strong support level around 90, and the market speculates that this is likely to be the medium-term bottom of the US dollar. Yu zhang, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities, predicts that the US dollar will rebound significantly in the medium and long term, and the RMB may be close to the inflection point of depreciation.</p><p>All signs of universal immunization, economic recovery, rising inflation, and tightening monetary policy are pointing to the final realization of the logic of dollar appreciation.</p><p>Developed countries such as the United States are expected to basically achieve herd immunity in the third quarter, and PMIs in Europe and the United States have reached new highs recently.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>Dong Qi, chief macro analyst, said that this shows that thanks to vaccination, the momentum of economic recovery is significantly strengthened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601328\">Bank of Communications</a>Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Center for Financial Research, said that a strong recovery of the U.S. economy in the second half of the year may lead to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar again.</p><p>Recently, 27 states in the United States have announced tightening of unemployment benefits. Dong Qi predicts that the job market will gradually return to the normal repair track and will not constrain the Fed's tightening of monetary policy. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely release a signal of QE reduction in the third quarter.</p><p>At present, the new U.S. government is planning and promoting a new round of fiscal stimulus plan, and plans to launch a $6 trillion fiscal stimulus plan in the near future. \"Although there will be a series of difficulties in the implementation of this plan, considering the optimistic expectations for the future of the U.S. economy and the actual effects of some measures, it may become one of the driving forces for the phased strengthening of the U.S. dollar.\" said Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment and director of the institute. Yu Zhang also pointed out that the United States is still insisting on fiscal stimulus, which is beneficial to the economic benefits and inflation of the United States.</p><p>As global commodity prices continue to rise and fluctuate at high levels, U.S. inflation levels have risen significantly. The U.S. CPI announced on June 10 rose 5% year-on-year, hitting a new high in nearly 13 years. The market expects that the Fed's tightening of monetary policy may be imminent. Recently, the the US Dollar Index has encountered strong downward resistance around 90, and it can't break through for a long time. The possibility of a sharp rebound in the future cannot be ruled out.</p><p>\"In the second half of 2021, the expectation of rate hike from the Federal Reserve will return, and the policy window of rate hike will be revealed at the end of the year and early next year.\" Lian Ping said. Yu zhang said that the United States, or the first developed country in the world to shift its monetary policy, has a higher probability of the appreciation of the US dollar. Lian Ping further pointed out that once there is a rate hike in the United States, and my country will most likely not follow up quickly, the interest rate spread between China and the United States will further narrow, and there may even be a periodic reverse interest rate spread, which will push the US dollar to strengthen.</p><p>From the perspective of US dollar liquidity, Dong Qi pointed out that the marginal inflection point of US dollar liquidity is approaching. According to the bond issuance plan announced by the U.S. Treasury Department, the U.S. Treasury Department is expected to significantly increase the net financing scale of the private market to US $821 billion in the third quarter, compared with US $401 billion and US $463 billion in the first two quarters respectively; The U.S. Treasury TGA account will also rise from $450 billion at the end of July to $750 billion in September. Dong Qi pointed out that it can be seen that the U.S. Treasury Department plans to increase the scale of bond issuance in the third quarter, and the TGA account will be re-expanded after bottoming out at the end of July, thus completing the transition from water release to water pumping.</p><p>In addition, Lian Ping also pointed out that at present, the US dollar and the US Treasury Bond market are still important safe havens in the world. Global geopolitical risks will cause international safe-haven funds to favor US dollar bonds, pushing up US dollar demand in stages.</p><p>In the final analysis, economic fundamentals are the decisive factor in the exchange rate. Dong Qi pointed out that as the pace of economic recovery in the United States accelerates, the comparative advantage of China's economic fundamentals will narrow. Tang Jianwei believes that China's economy will be high at first and then low in 2021, while the United States and the world may be low at first and then high. In the second half of the year, the economic growth gap between China and the United States will narrow or put pressure on the RMB exchange rate.</p><p>\"Therefore, although the RMB exchange rate has continued to rise in recent times, it will not go out of the unilateral upward trend, and the RMB exchange rate will face depreciation pressure in the second half of the year.\" Tang Jianwei pointed out that although China's foreign exchange administration has withdrawn from its normalized intervention in the foreign exchange market, it will still guide market expectations through some policy tools and promote the two-way fluctuation characteristics of the RMB exchange rate.</p><p>Pan Gongsheng, Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, spoke at the 13th<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600663\">Lujiazui</a>The forum stated that macro-prudential management and expectation guidance will be strengthened to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. From the perspective of corporate financial stability, Pan Gongsheng emphasized that corporate exchange rate risk management should adhere to the principle of serving the main business and \"exchange rate risk neutrality\", prudently arrange the currency structure of assets and liabilities, and avoid \"pro-cyclical\" and \"streaking\" behaviors of foreign exchange risk management. Don't bet on the appreciation or depreciation of RMB. If you gamble for a long time, you will lose.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632888\">金融时报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab1815ec48bd4c5f20d5928cc3337253","relate_stocks":{"CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632888","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"2143178705","content_text":"全民免疫、经济复苏、通胀加剧、货币政策收紧，种种迹象都在指向美元升值逻辑的最终实现。\n\n近一段时间以来，人民币汇率走势牵动着市场神经。自央行决定上调金融机构外汇存款准备金率后，人民币对美元汇率已由6.35的近期高点贬至6.39上方。市场分析师普遍认为，人民币汇率趋近贬值拐点，下半年大概率会出现贬值压力。影响人民币汇率的因素是多方面的，其中美元升值风险将是最直接的一项。\n今年一季度美债收益率走高推动美元指数出现阶段性升值，3月末美元指数曾达到93.18的阶段性高点。此后，欧洲疫苗接种较快等短期因素使美元近两月走弱，但美元指数近期已在90附近寻找到强力支撑位，市场猜测这很可能是美元的中期底部。华创证券首席宏观分析师张瑜预计，美元在中长期会有较大反弹，人民币或已接近贬值拐点。\n全民免疫、经济复苏、通胀加剧、货币政策收紧，种种迹象都在指向美元升值逻辑的最终实现。\n美国等发达国家预计将在3季度基本实现群体免疫，近期欧美PMI连创新高。国泰君安首席宏观分析师董琦表示，这表明受益于疫苗接种，经济复苏动能正显著加强。交通银行金融研究中心首席研究员唐建伟表示，下半年美国经济如果强劲复苏可能再次导致美元走强。\n近期美国已有27个州宣布收紧失业金发放，董琦预计，就业市场会逐渐回归正常修复轨道，不会对美联储收紧货币政策形成掣肘。预计美联储大概率将在三季度释放QE缩减的信号。\n目前美国新政府正在筹划和推动新一轮财政刺激计划，计划近期推出6万亿美元的财政刺激方案。“尽管这一计划落实会有一系列困难，但考虑到对美国经济未来的乐观预期和部分举措落地之后带来的实际效应，有可能成为美元阶段性走强的动力之一。”植信投资首席经济学家兼研究院院长连平说。张瑜也指出，美国仍在坚持财政刺激，利好美国的经济效益和通胀。\n随着全球大宗商品价格持续走高并在高位波动，美国通胀水平明显上升。6月10日公布的美国CPI同比大涨5%，创出近13年的新高。市场预计美联储收紧货币政策或已箭在弦上。近日美元指数在90附近遇较强下行阻力，久久不能突破，不排除未来大幅反弹的可能性。\n“2021年下半年，美联储加息的预期将卷土重来，年底和明年初将会显现出加息的政策窗口。”连平说。张瑜说，美国或是全球第一个货币政策转向的发达国家，美元升值概率更高。连平进一步指出，一旦美国加息，而我国大概率不会迅速跟进，中美利差会进一步收窄，甚至可能会出现阶段性的反向利差，其将推动美元走强。\n从美元流动性角度看，董琦指出，美元流动性边际拐点将至。根据美国财政部公布的发债计划，美国财政部预计将在三季度大幅增加私人市场净融资规模至8210亿美元，而前两个季度分别为4010亿和4630亿美元；美国财政部TGA账户也将从7月底的4500亿美元回升至9月的7500亿美元。董琦指出，由此可见，美国财政部计划在三季度加大发债规模，TGA账户将在7月底见底后重新扩容，由此完成放水到抽水的转变。\n此外，连平还指出，目前美元和美国国债市场仍是全球重要的避险港湾。全球地缘政治风险会造成国际避险资金青睐美元债券，阶段性推高美元需求。\n归根结底，经济基本面是汇率的决定性因素。董琦指出，随着美国经济复苏步伐加快，中国经济基本面相对优势将收窄。唐建伟认为，中国经济2021年将是前高后低的走势，而美国和全球可能是前低后高，下半年中美经济增速差缩小或使人民币汇率承压。\n“因此，虽然人民币汇率近一段时间持续走高，但不会走出单边上涨趋势，下半年人民币汇率面临走贬压力。”唐建伟指出，中国外汇管理部门虽然退出对外汇市场的常态化干预，但仍会通过一些政策工具引导市场预期，促成人民币汇率的双向波动特征。\n人民银行副行长、外汇局局长潘功胜在第十三届陆家嘴论坛上表示，将加强宏观审慎管理和预期引导，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。从企业财务稳健的角度看，潘功胜强调，企业汇率风险管理应坚持服务主业和“汇率风险中性”原则，审慎安排资产负债货币结构，避免外汇风险管理的“顺周期”和“裸奔”行为，不要赌人民币升值或贬值，久赌必输。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UCmain":0.9,"CNHmain":0.9,"CYB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1213,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}