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teh1234
2021-06-14

The monarch's strategy: get out of the fog of inflation and welcome the rise under the light

本报告导读市场关心的通胀问题正随预期曲线脱虚向实走向确定，估值挣脱负向束缚，市场将在震荡蓄力后继续拉升。行业配置上，看好券商/新能车/电子/医药/新兴消费等行业。摘要大势研判：挣脱通胀束缚，震荡

The monarch's strategy: get out of the fog of inflation and welcome the rise under the light

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":185590430,"tweetId":"185590430","gmtCreate":1623658321020,"gmtModify":1704207973136,"author":{"id":3583135297870207,"idStr":"3583135297870207","authorId":3583135297870207,"authorIdStr":"3583135297870207","name":"teh1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>se</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>se</body></html>","text":"se","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185590430","repostId":1111262113,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111262113","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623657143,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111262113?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 15:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The monarch's strategy: get out of the fog of inflation and welcome the rise under the light","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111262113","media":"陈显顺策略研究","summary":"本报告导读\n市场关心的通胀问题正随预期曲线脱虚向实走向确定，估值挣脱负向束缚，市场将在震荡蓄力后继续拉升。行业配置上，看好券商/新能车/电子/医药/新兴消费等行业。\n摘要\n大势研判：挣脱通胀束缚，震荡","content":"Introduction to this reportThe inflation issue that the market is concerned about is determining as the expected curve shifts from virtual to real, valuations break free from negative constraints, and the market will continue to rise after shocks and accumulate momentum. In terms of industry allocation, we are optimistic about securities firms/new energy vehicles/electronics/medicine/emerging consumption and other industries.SUMMARYGeneral trend research and judgment: Break free from the shackles of inflation, the shock will not last long, and then it will rise.This week, the market continued to fluctuate within a narrow range of around 3,600 points. We believe that it will rise again after the shock accumulates power. The core driving force lies in the accelerated downward trend of risk assessment on the denominator side.1) Denominator side: The determination of the acceleration of inflation drives the risk assessment to continue to decline.Since March, with the rapid rise of PPI, the market has entered the fog of inflation, and the market cannot get out of the volatile pattern due to high uncertainty. By late May, the uncertainty of inflation, liquidity and other issues that the market was concerned about gradually converged, driving the risk assessment margin downward, and the market reached the first level. At present, with the economic data in May settled, domestic inflation has reached its high point during the year as scheduled, the market will get out of the fog of inflation, and the downward trend in risk assessment will accelerate again. From the historical market conditions of China and the United States, we have all seen that as uncertainty declines, the core equity index is likely to rise. Superimposed with the cooperation of risk-free interest rates that are easy to go down but difficult to go up, the kinetic energy of the denominator is strong.2) Molecular end: There is no need to be pessimistic about weakened profits.The market ignored the possibility of negative profit growth in the fourth quarter, but negative profit growth is actually a disaster and a blessing. Historically, when the profit growth rate turned from positive to negative, liquidity was easy to loosen but difficult to tighten. We believe that negative profit growth will help relieve the pressure on the denominator side, so there is no need to be pessimistic.The inflation expectation curve has shifted from virtual to real, the uncertainty continues to converge, and the risk assessment continues to decline.Under the influence of a low base, the domestic PPI in May increased by 9.0% year-on-year and peaked as scheduled. The second highest point that may occur in the fourth quarter is difficult to exceed May, and the high point during the year has already appeared. Judging from the CPI anchored by the policy, the 1.3% year-on-year increase in May did not meet expectations. The central bank's judgment that the CPI will be below 2% for the whole year also shows that inflation is worry-free. In the United States, CPI increased by 5% year-on-year in May as scheduled, and the high point of the year will come in June. With the emergence of inflation highs in China and the United States, the inflation expectation curve is moving away from virtual to real, and the trend is certain. In addition, the problem of credit contraction is also becoming certain. In May, the growth rate of social financing dropped by 0.7 points from the previous month. The fastest downward phase is basically over, and it is expected to rebound to around 11% by the end of the year. As the trend of inflation and credit contraction, which the market is most concerned about, is determined, their impact on valuation will transition from negative constraints in the early stage to a smooth transition. The future increase of DR007 may be a hidden danger in the downward trend of uncertainty, but we believe that more will follow the Federal Reserve and will not take the initiative to raise in the current window.The risk assessment is downward, the market transaction structure is quietly changing, and the real main line is the mid-cap blue chip.Although the heavyweight stocks represented by the Mao Index have rebounded recently, in fact, most of the stocks with the highest gains since May are concentrated in mid-cap blue chips in sub-sectors, not large-cap blue chips. From the perspective of trading, it can also be observed that the real main line of the market is in the second-line mid-market and growth style. Since mid-May, market trading activity has risen again, and the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has reached the trillion mark many times. During this round of upward market activity, there are three obvious characteristics: 1) The concentration trend of market activity from large-cap stocks to mid-cap stocks is obvious; 2) The market prefers growth and balance stocks, while the preference for value stocks weakens; 3) Most of the core assets represented by the Mao Index have shrunk, while most of the heavy-volume stocks have growth styles. The Mao Index is just following. The current trillion-dollar trading volume has begun to be more inclined towards mid-cap blue chips with profitability elasticity and early stagflation, and is moving towards technological growth with sustained high prosperity.The risk assessment is downward, and buy varieties with large marginal improvement from uncertainty to certainty.According to the degree of benefit of risk assessment to industry allocation, the key recommendations are: 1) If the risk assessment is downward, securities firms/banks are the first; 2) The starting point of technological growth: new energy vehicles/electronics/computers/military industry/medicine; 3) The recovery in the post-epidemic era is accelerating: domestic consumption/emerging consumption/high-end consumption; 4) The next cycle of carbon neutrality and new technological opportunities: building materials/steel/architectural engineering; 5) Midstream manufacturing oversold counterattack under the expected marginal easing of cost constraints: home appliances/machinery.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2bcd796be925b82e0d3da9d761c3e6b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7884823692794a84559db1302659e75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">1、Accumulate power in the shock, and then pull upGeneral trend research and judgment: Break free from the shackles of inflation, the shock will not last long, and then it will rise.This week, the market continued to fluctuate within a narrow range of around 3,600 points. We believe that it will rise again after the shock accumulates power. The core driving force lies in the accelerated downward trend of risk assessment on the denominator side. 1）Denominator side: The acceleration of inflation is determined, driving risk assessment to continue to decline.Since March, with the rapid rise of PPI, the market has entered the fog of inflation, and the market cannot get out of the volatile pattern due to high uncertainty. By late May, the uncertainty of inflation, liquidity and other issues that the market was concerned about gradually converged, driving the risk assessment margin downward, and the market reached the first level. At present, with the economic data in May settled, domestic inflation has reached its high point during the year as scheduled, the market will get out of the fog of inflation, and the downward trend in risk assessment will accelerate again. From the historical market conditions in China and the United States, we can all see that as uncertainty declines, the core equity index is likely to rise. Superimposed with the cooperation of risk-free interest rates that are easy to go down but difficult to go up, the kinetic energy of the denominator is strong. 2）Molecular end: There is no need to be pessimistic about weakened profits.The market ignored the possibility of negative profit growth in the fourth quarter, but negative profit growth is actually a disaster and a blessing. Historically, when the profit growth rate turned from positive to negative, liquidity was easy to loosen but difficult to tighten. We believe that negative profit growth will help relieve the pressure on the denominator side, so there is no need to be pessimistic.2、The expected curve shifts from real to virtual, and the uncertainty continues to convergeThe inflation expectation curve has shifted from virtual to real, the uncertainty continues to converge, and the risk assessment continues to decline.Under the influence of a low base, the domestic PPI in May increased by 9.0% year-on-year and peaked as scheduled. The second highest point that may occur in the fourth quarter is difficult to exceed May, and the high point during the year has already appeared. Judging from the CPI anchored by the policy, the 1.3% year-on-year increase in May did not meet expectations. The central bank's judgment that the CPI will be below 2% for the whole year also shows that inflation is worry-free. In the United States, CPI increased by 5% year-on-year in May as scheduled, and the high point of the year will come in June. With the emergence of inflation highs in China and the United States, the inflation expectation curve is moving away from virtual to real, and the trend is certain. In addition, the problem of credit contraction is also becoming certain. In May, the growth rate of social financing dropped by 0.7 points from the previous month. The fastest downward phase is basically over, and it is expected to rebound to around 11% by the end of the year. As the trend of inflation and credit contraction, which the market is most concerned about, is determined, their impact on valuation will transition from negative constraints in the early stage to a smooth transition. The future increase of DR007 may be a hidden danger in the downward trend of uncertainty, but we believe that more will follow the Federal Reserve and will not take the initiative to raise in the current window.3、Quietly changing structure: the real main line is in the mid-cap blue chipThe risk assessment is downward, the market transaction structure is quietly changing, and the real main line is the mid-cap blue chip.Although the heavyweight stocks represented by the Mao Index have rebounded recently, in fact, most of the stocks with the highest gains since May are concentrated in mid-cap blue chips in sub-sectors, not large-cap blue chips. From the perspective of trading, it can also be observed that the real main line of the market is in the second-line mid-market and growth style. Since mid-May, market trading activity has risen again, and the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has reached the trillion mark many times. During this round of upward market activity, there are three obvious characteristics: 1) The concentration trend of market activity from large-cap stocks to mid-cap stocks is obvious; 2) The market prefers growth and balance stocks, while the preference for value stocks weakens; 3) Most of the core assets represented by the Mao Index have shrunk, while most of the heavy-volume stocks have growth styles. The Mao Index just follows. The current trillion-dollar trading volume has begun to be more inclined towards mid-cap blue chips with profitability elasticity and early stagflation, and is moving towards technological growth with sustained high prosperity. Under the downward trend of risk assessment, we should continue to firmly adhere to the investment idea of \"mid-cap blue chips leading and large-cap blue chips following\" in the future.4、Industry allocation: brokerages take the lead, growth relayThe risk assessment is downward, and buy varieties with large marginal improvement from uncertainty to certainty.According to the degree of benefits of risk assessment to industry allocation, key recommendations are: 1) If risk assessment is downward, securities firms are the first to recommend (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>), banks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600919\">Bank of Jiangsu</a>）； 2) The starting point of technological growth: new energy vehicles (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">Ganfeng Lithium</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300014\">EVE Lithium Energy</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688567\">Funeng Technology</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300450\">Pilot intelligence</a>), electronic (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002475\">Luxshare Precision</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300458\">Allwinner Technology</a>), computer (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300872\">Tianyang Technology</a>), military industry (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600760\">AVIC Shenfei</a>), medicine; 3) The recovery in the post-epidemic era is accelerating: domestic consumption, emerging consumption, and high-end consumption; 4) The next cycle of carbon neutrality and new technological opportunities: building materials (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601636\">Kibing Group</a>), steel (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000932\">Valin Steel</a>Architectural engineering (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000928\">Sinosteel International</a>）； 5) Midstream manufacturing oversold counterattack under the expected marginal easing of cost constraints: home appliances (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600060\">Hisense Video</a>), machinery.5、Five-dimensional data panorama<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caab272868b55107c6a023088a6aedd0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22615a7438ba57d26ceaa09c9b7b1707\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/405b8c9d96a3c7110cfb91be669a30dd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc735ff8f2740719cc57843575c1f1c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"lsy1605406758829","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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In terms of industry allocation, we are optimistic about securities firms/new energy vehicles/electronics/medicine/emerging consumption and other industries.SUMMARYGeneral trend research and judgment: Break free from the shackles of inflation, the shock will not last long, and then it will rise.This week, the market continued to fluctuate within a narrow range of around 3,600 points. We believe that it will rise again after the shock accumulates power. The core driving force lies in the accelerated downward trend of risk assessment on the denominator side.1) Denominator side: The determination of the acceleration of inflation drives the risk assessment to continue to decline.Since March, with the rapid rise of PPI, the market has entered the fog of inflation, and the market cannot get out of the volatile pattern due to high uncertainty. By late May, the uncertainty of inflation, liquidity and other issues that the market was concerned about gradually converged, driving the risk assessment margin downward, and the market reached the first level. At present, with the economic data in May settled, domestic inflation has reached its high point during the year as scheduled, the market will get out of the fog of inflation, and the downward trend in risk assessment will accelerate again. From the historical market conditions of China and the United States, we have all seen that as uncertainty declines, the core equity index is likely to rise. Superimposed with the cooperation of risk-free interest rates that are easy to go down but difficult to go up, the kinetic energy of the denominator is strong.2) Molecular end: There is no need to be pessimistic about weakened profits.The market ignored the possibility of negative profit growth in the fourth quarter, but negative profit growth is actually a disaster and a blessing. Historically, when the profit growth rate turned from positive to negative, liquidity was easy to loosen but difficult to tighten. We believe that negative profit growth will help relieve the pressure on the denominator side, so there is no need to be pessimistic.The inflation expectation curve has shifted from virtual to real, the uncertainty continues to converge, and the risk assessment continues to decline.Under the influence of a low base, the domestic PPI in May increased by 9.0% year-on-year and peaked as scheduled. The second highest point that may occur in the fourth quarter is difficult to exceed May, and the high point during the year has already appeared. Judging from the CPI anchored by the policy, the 1.3% year-on-year increase in May did not meet expectations. The central bank's judgment that the CPI will be below 2% for the whole year also shows that inflation is worry-free. In the United States, CPI increased by 5% year-on-year in May as scheduled, and the high point of the year will come in June. With the emergence of inflation highs in China and the United States, the inflation expectation curve is moving away from virtual to real, and the trend is certain. In addition, the problem of credit contraction is also becoming certain. In May, the growth rate of social financing dropped by 0.7 points from the previous month. The fastest downward phase is basically over, and it is expected to rebound to around 11% by the end of the year. As the trend of inflation and credit contraction, which the market is most concerned about, is determined, their impact on valuation will transition from negative constraints in the early stage to a smooth transition. The future increase of DR007 may be a hidden danger in the downward trend of uncertainty, but we believe that more will follow the Federal Reserve and will not take the initiative to raise in the current window.The risk assessment is downward, the market transaction structure is quietly changing, and the real main line is the mid-cap blue chip.Although the heavyweight stocks represented by the Mao Index have rebounded recently, in fact, most of the stocks with the highest gains since May are concentrated in mid-cap blue chips in sub-sectors, not large-cap blue chips. From the perspective of trading, it can also be observed that the real main line of the market is in the second-line mid-market and growth style. Since mid-May, market trading activity has risen again, and the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has reached the trillion mark many times. During this round of upward market activity, there are three obvious characteristics: 1) The concentration trend of market activity from large-cap stocks to mid-cap stocks is obvious; 2) The market prefers growth and balance stocks, while the preference for value stocks weakens; 3) Most of the core assets represented by the Mao Index have shrunk, while most of the heavy-volume stocks have growth styles. The Mao Index is just following. The current trillion-dollar trading volume has begun to be more inclined towards mid-cap blue chips with profitability elasticity and early stagflation, and is moving towards technological growth with sustained high prosperity.The risk assessment is downward, and buy varieties with large marginal improvement from uncertainty to certainty.According to the degree of benefit of risk assessment to industry allocation, the key recommendations are: 1) If the risk assessment is downward, securities firms/banks are the first; 2) The starting point of technological growth: new energy vehicles/electronics/computers/military industry/medicine; 3) The recovery in the post-epidemic era is accelerating: domestic consumption/emerging consumption/high-end consumption; 4) The next cycle of carbon neutrality and new technological opportunities: building materials/steel/architectural engineering; 5) Midstream manufacturing oversold counterattack under the expected marginal easing of cost constraints: home appliances/machinery.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2bcd796be925b82e0d3da9d761c3e6b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7884823692794a84559db1302659e75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">1、Accumulate power in the shock, and then pull upGeneral trend research and judgment: Break free from the shackles of inflation, the shock will not last long, and then it will rise.This week, the market continued to fluctuate within a narrow range of around 3,600 points. We believe that it will rise again after the shock accumulates power. The core driving force lies in the accelerated downward trend of risk assessment on the denominator side. 1）Denominator side: The acceleration of inflation is determined, driving risk assessment to continue to decline.Since March, with the rapid rise of PPI, the market has entered the fog of inflation, and the market cannot get out of the volatile pattern due to high uncertainty. By late May, the uncertainty of inflation, liquidity and other issues that the market was concerned about gradually converged, driving the risk assessment margin downward, and the market reached the first level. At present, with the economic data in May settled, domestic inflation has reached its high point during the year as scheduled, the market will get out of the fog of inflation, and the downward trend in risk assessment will accelerate again. From the historical market conditions in China and the United States, we can all see that as uncertainty declines, the core equity index is likely to rise. Superimposed with the cooperation of risk-free interest rates that are easy to go down but difficult to go up, the kinetic energy of the denominator is strong. 2）Molecular end: There is no need to be pessimistic about weakened profits.The market ignored the possibility of negative profit growth in the fourth quarter, but negative profit growth is actually a disaster and a blessing. Historically, when the profit growth rate turned from positive to negative, liquidity was easy to loosen but difficult to tighten. We believe that negative profit growth will help relieve the pressure on the denominator side, so there is no need to be pessimistic.2、The expected curve shifts from real to virtual, and the uncertainty continues to convergeThe inflation expectation curve has shifted from virtual to real, the uncertainty continues to converge, and the risk assessment continues to decline.Under the influence of a low base, the domestic PPI in May increased by 9.0% year-on-year and peaked as scheduled. The second highest point that may occur in the fourth quarter is difficult to exceed May, and the high point during the year has already appeared. Judging from the CPI anchored by the policy, the 1.3% year-on-year increase in May did not meet expectations. The central bank's judgment that the CPI will be below 2% for the whole year also shows that inflation is worry-free. In the United States, CPI increased by 5% year-on-year in May as scheduled, and the high point of the year will come in June. With the emergence of inflation highs in China and the United States, the inflation expectation curve is moving away from virtual to real, and the trend is certain. In addition, the problem of credit contraction is also becoming certain. In May, the growth rate of social financing dropped by 0.7 points from the previous month. The fastest downward phase is basically over, and it is expected to rebound to around 11% by the end of the year. As the trend of inflation and credit contraction, which the market is most concerned about, is determined, their impact on valuation will transition from negative constraints in the early stage to a smooth transition. The future increase of DR007 may be a hidden danger in the downward trend of uncertainty, but we believe that more will follow the Federal Reserve and will not take the initiative to raise in the current window.3、Quietly changing structure: the real main line is in the mid-cap blue chipThe risk assessment is downward, the market transaction structure is quietly changing, and the real main line is the mid-cap blue chip.Although the heavyweight stocks represented by the Mao Index have rebounded recently, in fact, most of the stocks with the highest gains since May are concentrated in mid-cap blue chips in sub-sectors, not large-cap blue chips. From the perspective of trading, it can also be observed that the real main line of the market is in the second-line mid-market and growth style. Since mid-May, market trading activity has risen again, and the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has reached the trillion mark many times. During this round of upward market activity, there are three obvious characteristics: 1) The concentration trend of market activity from large-cap stocks to mid-cap stocks is obvious; 2) The market prefers growth and balance stocks, while the preference for value stocks weakens; 3) Most of the core assets represented by the Mao Index have shrunk, while most of the heavy-volume stocks have growth styles. The Mao Index just follows. The current trillion-dollar trading volume has begun to be more inclined towards mid-cap blue chips with profitability elasticity and early stagflation, and is moving towards technological growth with sustained high prosperity. Under the downward trend of risk assessment, we should continue to firmly adhere to the investment idea of \"mid-cap blue chips leading and large-cap blue chips following\" in the future.4、Industry allocation: brokerages take the lead, growth relayThe risk assessment is downward, and buy varieties with large marginal improvement from uncertainty to certainty.According to the degree of benefits of risk assessment to industry allocation, key recommendations are: 1) If risk assessment is downward, securities firms are the first to recommend (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>), banks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600919\">Bank of Jiangsu</a>）； 2) The starting point of technological growth: new energy vehicles (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">Ganfeng Lithium</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300014\">EVE Lithium Energy</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688567\">Funeng Technology</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300450\">Pilot intelligence</a>), electronic (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002475\">Luxshare Precision</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300458\">Allwinner Technology</a>), computer (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300872\">Tianyang Technology</a>), military industry (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600760\">AVIC Shenfei</a>), medicine; 3) The recovery in the post-epidemic era is accelerating: domestic consumption, emerging consumption, and high-end consumption; 4) The next cycle of carbon neutrality and new technological opportunities: building materials (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601636\">Kibing Group</a>), steel (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000932\">Valin Steel</a>Architectural engineering (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000928\">Sinosteel International</a>）； 5) Midstream manufacturing oversold counterattack under the expected marginal easing of cost constraints: home appliances (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600060\">Hisense Video</a>), machinery.5、Five-dimensional data panorama<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caab272868b55107c6a023088a6aedd0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22615a7438ba57d26ceaa09c9b7b1707\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/405b8c9d96a3c7110cfb91be669a30dd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc735ff8f2740719cc57843575c1f1c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lXIrz9JhVNfLrXE5yn4PCA\">陈显顺策略研究</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lXIrz9JhVNfLrXE5yn4PCA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111262113","content_text":"本报告导读\n市场关心的通胀问题正随预期曲线脱虚向实走向确定，估值挣脱负向束缚，市场将在震荡蓄力后继续拉升。行业配置上，看好券商/新能车/电子/医药/新兴消费等行业。\n摘要\n大势研判：挣脱通胀束缚，震荡不长久，此后是拉升。本周市场继续在3600点上下窄幅震荡，我们认为震荡蓄力之后将是再次拉升，核心驱动在于分母端风险评价的加速下行。1）分母端：通胀加速走向确定驱动风险评价继续下行。3月以来随着PPI快速走高，市场走入通胀迷雾，不确定性高企下行情走不出震荡格局。至5月下旬，市场关心的通胀、流动性等问题不确定性逐渐收敛，驱动风险评价边际下行，行情迈上第一个台阶。当前随着5月经济数据落定，国内通胀年内高点如期出现，市场将走出通胀迷雾，风险评价下行再度加速。从中美历史行情中，我们均看到随着不确定性下降，核心权益指数大概率上涨。叠加无风险利率易下难上的配合，分母端动能强劲。2）分子端：不必对弱化的盈利悲观。市场忽视了四季度盈利负增长的可能，但盈利负增实则祸兮福所倚。历史上盈利增速由正转负时，流动性均呈现易松难紧的特征，我们认为盈利负增有助于释缓分母端压力，不必悲观。\n通胀预期曲线脱虚向实，不确定性收敛不息，风险评价下行不止。国内5月PPI在低基数影响下同比高增9.0%如期见顶，四季度可能出现的次高点难超5月，年内高点已现。从政策锚定的CPI来看，5月同比上涨1.3%并未及预期，央行对CPI全年2%以下的判断亦显示通胀无忧。美国方面，5月CPI同比增长5%如期冲高，年内高点将于6月来临。随着中美通胀高点的先后出现，通胀预期曲线正脱虚向实，走向确定。此外信用收缩问题亦在走向确定，5月社融增速较上月回落0.7个点，最快的下行阶段基本结束，年底有望反弹至11%附近。随着市场最为关心的通胀与信用收缩走向确定，两者对估值影响将从前期的负向束缚向平稳过渡。未来DR007的调升可能是不确定性下行中的隐患，但我们认为更多会跟随美联储，并不会在当前窗口主动调升。\n风险评价下行，市场交易结构悄然变化，真正的主线在中盘蓝筹。尽管近期以茅指数为代表的权重股有所反弹，但事实上5月以来涨幅靠前的个股大多集中于细分行业的中盘蓝筹，并非大盘蓝筹。从交易视角来看，亦可观察到市场真正的主线在二线中盘与成长风格。5月中旬以来市场交易活跃度重新上行，沪深两市成交额多次站上万亿关口。在本轮市场活跃度上行过程中，呈现三个明显特征：1）市场活跃度从大盘股向中盘股集中趋势明显；2）市场更青睐成长与平衡股，而价值股偏好减弱；3）茅指数为代表的核心资产大多出现缩量，放量个股则多为成长风格。茅指数仅仅是跟随，当前万亿成交量已开始更偏向具备盈利弹性、前期滞涨的中盘蓝筹，并向持续高景气的科技成长挪动。\n风险评价下行，买从不确定到确定边际改善大的品种。按照风险评价对于行业配置的受益先后程度，重点推荐：1）风险评价下行，首推券商/银行；2）科技成长起点：新能源车/电子/计算机/军工/医药；3）后疫情时代复苏加速：国货消费/新兴消费/高端消费；4）碳中和下周期及科技新机遇：建材/钢铁/建筑工程；5）成本受制预期边际缓和下中游制造超跌反攻：家电/机械。\n\n1、震荡中蓄力，此后是拉升\n大势研判：挣脱通胀束缚，震荡不长久，此后是拉升。本周市场继续在3600点上下窄幅震荡，我们认为震荡蓄力之后将是再次拉升，核心驱动在于分母端风险评价的加速下行。1）分母端：通胀加速走向确定驱动风险评价继续下行。3月以来随着PPI快速走高，市场走入通胀迷雾，不确定性高企下行情走不出震荡格局。至5月下旬，市场关心的通胀、流动性等问题不确定性逐渐收敛，驱动风险评价边际下行，行情迈上第一个台阶。当前随着5月经济数据落定，国内通胀年内高点如期出现，市场将走出通胀迷雾，风险评价下行再度加速。从中美的历史行情中，我们均可以看到随着不确定性下降，核心权益指数大概率上涨。叠加无风险利率易下难上的配合，分母端动能强劲。2）分子端：不必对弱化的盈利悲观。市场忽视了四季度盈利负增长的可能，但盈利负增实则祸兮福所倚。历史上盈利增速由正转负时，流动性均呈现易松难紧的特征，我们认为盈利负增有助于释缓分母端压力，不必悲观。\n2、预期曲线脱实向虚，不确定性继续收敛\n通胀预期曲线脱虚向实，不确定性收敛不息，风险评价下行不止。国内5月PPI在低基数影响下同比高增9.0%如期见顶，四季度可能出现的次高点难超5月，年内高点已现。从政策锚定的CPI来看，5月同比上涨1.3%并未及预期，央行对CPI全年2%以下的判断亦显示通胀无忧。美国方面，5月CPI同比增长5%如期冲高，年内高点将于6月来临。随着中美通胀高点的先后出现，通胀预期曲线正脱虚向实，走向确定。此外信用收缩问题亦在走向确定，5月社融增速较上月回落0.7个点，最快的下行阶段基本结束，年底有望反弹至11%附近。随着市场最为关心的通胀与信用收缩走向确定，两者对估值影响将从前期的负向束缚向平稳过渡。未来DR007的调升可能是不确定性下行中的隐患，但我们认为更多会跟随美联储，并不会在当前窗口主动调升。\n3、悄然变化的结构：真正主线在中盘蓝筹\n风险评价下行，市场交易结构悄然变化，真正的主线在中盘蓝筹。尽管近期以茅指数为代表的权重股有所反弹，但事实上5月以来涨幅靠前的个股大多集中于细分行业的中盘蓝筹，并非大盘蓝筹。从交易视角来看，亦可观察到市场真正的主线在二线中盘与成长风格。5月中旬以来市场交易活跃度重新上行，沪深两市成交额多次站上万亿关口。在本轮市场活跃度上行过程中，呈现三个明显特征：1）市场活跃度从大盘股向中盘股集中趋势明显；2）市场更青睐成长与平衡股，而价值股偏好减弱；3）茅指数为代表的核心资产大多出现缩量，放量个股则多为成长风格。茅指数仅仅只是跟随，当前万亿成交量已开始更偏向具备盈利弹性、前期滞涨的中盘蓝筹，并向持续高景气的科技成长挪动。风险评价下行之下，未来应继续坚定“中盘蓝筹领跑，大盘蓝筹跟随”的投资思路。\n4、行业配置：券商打头，成长接力\n风险评价下行，买从不确定到确定边际改善大的品种。按照风险评价对于行业配置的受益先后程度，重点推荐：1）风险评价下行，首推券商（东方财富）、银行（江苏银行）；2）科技成长起点：新能源车（赣锋锂业/亿纬锂能/孚能科技/先导智能）、电子（立讯精密/全志科技）、计算机（天阳科技）、军工（中航沈飞）、医药；3）后疫情时代复苏加速：国货消费、新兴消费、高端消费；4）碳中和下周期及科技新机遇：建材（旗滨集团）、钢铁（华菱钢铁）、建筑工程（中钢国际）；5）成本受制预期边际缓和下中游制造超跌反攻：家电（海信视像）、机械。\n5、五维数据全景图","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1315,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}