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2021-03-18

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Goldman Sachs "admitted mistakes": miscalculated the Fed

美联储公布本周货币政策会议决议后，高盛承认其错估了美联储。该行此前对美联储货币政策进行预测时曾表示，预计到2023年联邦基金利率预期中值将有所上升，一度引起市场慌乱。美联储若发出短期加息信号，将引发整

Goldman Sachs "admitted mistakes": miscalculated the Fed

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If the Federal Reserve sends a short-term rate hike signal, it will trigger a \"repricing\" of the entire interest rate system, which will inevitably affect risky assets.<b>But now it turns out that this median expectation of the Fed continues to remain unchanged.</b></p><p>According to the Fed's forecast, the median long-term Federal Funds rate expectation is 2.5%, compared with 2.5% in December last year;<b>From the end of 2021 to the end of 2023, the median Federal Funds rate expectation is 0.1%, which is the same as the expectation in December last year.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs admitted in the report that it had previously miscalculated the Fed and blamed some<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">newly born</a>Factor, namely, \"some Federal Open Market Committee members believe that the inflation threshold should be higher than 2.1%.\" In other words, when the Fed tapers its bond purchases or considers rate hike, the economy is really overheating.</p><p>Goldman Sachs still expects the Fed to begin tapering its bond purchases in early 2022 and Federal Funds rate to remain unchanged until the first half of 2024.</p><p>In the latest report, Goldman Sachs analyst Hatzius stated the following views:</p><p>1. Members of the FOMC of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee unanimously agreed to keep the target level of the policy interest rate Federal Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, and maintain the current policy outlook characteristics and asset purchase policy. The statement of this meeting continues to reiterate the serious impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the current economic situation, but this time it acknowledges that the pace of recovery has \"recently accelerated\" after the previous slowdown.</p><p>The wording about falling oil prices \"suppressing\" inflation was also deleted from the meeting statement, and it was more clearly stated as \"inflation continues to be below 2%\". At the same time, the FOMC increased the single counterparty limit of the overnight reverse repurchase facility (RRP) from US $30 billion in a single day to US $80 billion.</p><p>2.<b>The median forecast for policy rates in the Summary of Economic Forecasts remains unchanged and is at odds with our rate hike expectations. FOMC participants, however, expressed different views</b>，<b>Of the 7 participants who are expected to be in rate hike at least once by the end of 2023 (previously 5, while our bank expects 11), 6 are expected to be in rate hike multiple times. In addition, 4 participants are expected to arrive in rate hike by the end of 2022 (previously there was only 1 person, while our bank expects 2 people).</b>The median medium and long-term forecast for Federal Funds rate remained unchanged at 2.5% as expected.</p><p>3. The Federal Reserve has significantly raised its GDP forecast for this year, possibly reflecting the impact of the U.S. economic relief bill and improved public health conditions. The expected GDP growth rate in 2021 will be raised by 2.3 percentage points (pp) to 6.5% (the expected growth rate in 2022 and 2023 will not change much, with an increase of 0.1 pp and a decrease of 0.2 pp respectively from the previous one).</p><p><b>While the core inflation rate (PCE) for 2021 has been sharply revised up by 0.4 pp to 2.2%, the rest of expectations show no signs of overheating in the medium term</b>: The unemployment rate forecast to 2023 is only lowered by 0.2 pp to 3.5%, and the long-term unemployment rate is lowered by 0.1 pp to 4.0%; PCE inflation forecasts for 2023 were raised by 0.1 pp to 2.1%, and only one participant expected to exceed 2.2%.</p><p>Finally, in terms of Goldman Sachs' revised expectations for the Fed's policy response, Hatzius wrote: \"March forecasts indicate that some FOMC members have set an inflation threshold above 2.1%. We still expect the Fed to start tapering bond purchases in early 2022. Federal Funds rate will remain unchanged until the first half of 2024.\"</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs \"admitted mistakes\": miscalculated the Fed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs \"admitted mistakes\": miscalculated the Fed\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 10:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After the Federal Reserve announced the resolution of this week's monetary policy meeting,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Admitting that it miscalculated the Fed.</p><p>When the bank previously forecasted the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, it said that it expected the median Federal Funds rate expectation to rise by 2023, which once caused market panic. If the Federal Reserve sends a short-term rate hike signal, it will trigger a \"repricing\" of the entire interest rate system, which will inevitably affect risky assets.<b>But now it turns out that this median expectation of the Fed continues to remain unchanged.</b></p><p>According to the Fed's forecast, the median long-term Federal Funds rate expectation is 2.5%, compared with 2.5% in December last year;<b>From the end of 2021 to the end of 2023, the median Federal Funds rate expectation is 0.1%, which is the same as the expectation in December last year.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs admitted in the report that it had previously miscalculated the Fed and blamed some<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABCD\">newly born</a>Factor, namely, \"some Federal Open Market Committee members believe that the inflation threshold should be higher than 2.1%.\" In other words, when the Fed tapers its bond purchases or considers rate hike, the economy is really overheating.</p><p>Goldman Sachs still expects the Fed to begin tapering its bond purchases in early 2022 and Federal Funds rate to remain unchanged until the first half of 2024.</p><p>In the latest report, Goldman Sachs analyst Hatzius stated the following views:</p><p>1. Members of the FOMC of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee unanimously agreed to keep the target level of the policy interest rate Federal Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, and maintain the current policy outlook characteristics and asset purchase policy. The statement of this meeting continues to reiterate the serious impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the current economic situation, but this time it acknowledges that the pace of recovery has \"recently accelerated\" after the previous slowdown.</p><p>The wording about falling oil prices \"suppressing\" inflation was also deleted from the meeting statement, and it was more clearly stated as \"inflation continues to be below 2%\". At the same time, the FOMC increased the single counterparty limit of the overnight reverse repurchase facility (RRP) from US $30 billion in a single day to US $80 billion.</p><p>2.<b>The median forecast for policy rates in the Summary of Economic Forecasts remains unchanged and is at odds with our rate hike expectations. FOMC participants, however, expressed different views</b>，<b>Of the 7 participants who are expected to be in rate hike at least once by the end of 2023 (previously 5, while our bank expects 11), 6 are expected to be in rate hike multiple times. In addition, 4 participants are expected to arrive in rate hike by the end of 2022 (previously there was only 1 person, while our bank expects 2 people).</b>The median medium and long-term forecast for Federal Funds rate remained unchanged at 2.5% as expected.</p><p>3. The Federal Reserve has significantly raised its GDP forecast for this year, possibly reflecting the impact of the U.S. economic relief bill and improved public health conditions. The expected GDP growth rate in 2021 will be raised by 2.3 percentage points (pp) to 6.5% (the expected growth rate in 2022 and 2023 will not change much, with an increase of 0.1 pp and a decrease of 0.2 pp respectively from the previous one).</p><p><b>While the core inflation rate (PCE) for 2021 has been sharply revised up by 0.4 pp to 2.2%, the rest of expectations show no signs of overheating in the medium term</b>: The unemployment rate forecast to 2023 is only lowered by 0.2 pp to 3.5%, and the long-term unemployment rate is lowered by 0.1 pp to 4.0%; PCE inflation forecasts for 2023 were raised by 0.1 pp to 2.1%, and only one participant expected to exceed 2.2%.</p><p>Finally, in terms of Goldman Sachs' revised expectations for the Fed's policy response, Hatzius wrote: \"March forecasts indicate that some FOMC members have set an inflation threshold above 2.1%. We still expect the Fed to start tapering bond purchases in early 2022. Federal Funds rate will remain unchanged until the first half of 2024.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624145\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","GS":"高盛","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624145","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120131537","content_text":"美联储公布本周货币政策会议决议后，高盛承认其错估了美联储。该行此前对美联储货币政策进行预测时曾表示，预计到2023年联邦基金利率预期中值将有所上升，一度引起市场慌乱。美联储若发出短期加息信号，将引发整个利率体系的“重新定价”，势必影响风险资产。但如今证明，美联储这一预期中值继续保持不变。根据美联储预测，长期联邦基金利率预期中值为2.5%，去年12月预期为2.5%；2021年底到2023年底，联邦基金利率预期中值均为0.1%，与去年12月预期持平。高盛在报告中承认自己此前错估了美联储，并将此归咎于一些新生因素，即“一些联邦公开市场委员会成员认为通胀门槛要高于2.1%”。换句话说，当美联储缩减购债规模或考虑加息时，经济就是真的过热了。高盛仍然预计，美联储将在2022年初开始缩减购债规模，联邦基金利率将保持不变，直到2024年上半年。最新发布的报告中，高盛分析师Hatzius陈述了以下观点:1. 联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标水平保持在0-0.25%不变，并维持当前的政策前景特征和资产购买政策。本次会议声明继续重申新冠疫情对当前经济形势的严重影响，但相较之前，这次它承认了复苏步伐在此前放缓后“最近有所加快”。会议声明中也删除了关于油价下跌“抑制”通货膨胀的措辞，更明确地表述为“通货膨胀继续低于2%”。同时，FOMC将隔夜逆回购工具（RRP）单个对手限额从单日300亿美元提高至800亿美元。2. 《经济预测摘要》中对政策利率的预测中值保持不变，与我们加息的预期相左。然而，FOMC参会者表达了不同的观点，预计到2023年底至少加息一次的7名参会者中（此前是5人，而我行预计为11人），有6名预计会多次加息。此外，4名参会者预计会在2022年底加息（此前仅1人，而我行预计为2人）。联邦基金利率的中长期预测中值如预期一样维持在2.5%不变。3.美联储大幅上调了今年GDP预期，可能反映了美国经济救济法案的影响和公共卫生状况的改善。2021年GDP预期增速上调2.3个百分点（pp）至6.5%（2022年和2023年预期增速变化不大，分别较此前上调0.1pp和下调0.2pp)。虽然2021年的核心通货膨胀率（PCE）大幅上调0.4pp至2.2%，但其余预期并未显示出中期经济过热的迹象：到2023年的失业率预期仅下调0.2pp至3.5%，长期失业率下调0.1pp至4.0%；2023年PCE通胀预期上调0.1pp至2.1%，且只有一名参会者预计会超过2.2%。最后，就高盛修正后的美联储政策反应预期而言，Hatzius写道：“3月份的预测表明，一些FOMC成员设定的通胀门槛高于2.1%。我们仍然预计，美联储将从2022年初开始缩减购债规模，联邦基金利率将保持不变，直到2024年上半年。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QID":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"GS":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1358,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}