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RUMBLE
2021-03-03

After being stuck for half a year, SMIC finally took a breath

“芯片危机”的赢家？ “中芯国际获美国14nm许可。” 昨天这则消息，搅动了今天的市场情绪，CNBC、《华尔街时报》等西方媒体也报道了相关新闻。去年12月，美国商务部将中芯国际列入“实体清单”，

After being stuck for half a year, SMIC finally took a breath

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":365602217,"tweetId":"365602217","gmtCreate":1614732248439,"gmtModify":1704774527323,"author":{"id":3563315459541876,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorId":3563315459541876,"authorIdStr":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>??</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>??</body></html>","text":"??","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365602217","repostId":1113167033,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113167033","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1614730873,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113167033?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-03 08:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"After being stuck for half a year, SMIC finally took a breath","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113167033","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"“芯片危机”的赢家？\n\n“中芯国际获美国14nm许可。”\n昨天这则消息，搅动了今天的市场情绪，CNBC、《华尔街时报》等西方媒体也报道了相关新闻。\n\n去年12月，美国商务部将中芯国际列入“实体清单”，","content":"The winner of the \"chip crisis\"?“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Obtained the US 14nm license. \"Yesterday's news stirred up today's market sentiment, and Western media such as CNBC and The Wall Street Journal also reported related news.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34033eeb8e6d504b9b220624b1510de7\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In December last year, the US Department of Commerce will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Included in the \"Entity List\" suppressed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Valuation. The relaxation of \"sanctions\" this time may be related to the current global shortage of chips-the \"seven injuries\" of the US imperialist may have made itself uncomfortable.01\"Sanctions\" relaxed, in line with expectationsThe relaxation of \"sanctions\" is basically in line with expectations.It can be seen from the news that among some suppliers in the United States, Company A has obtained relevant licenses, while Company L and Company K are still waiting for the results. They will also obtain licenses one after another. The licenses take 10nm as the cutoff point, and 14nm and above process-related products have been licensed, but nodes of 10nm and below have not obtained licenses.A, L and K respectively refer to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>Applied Materials,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">RAM Study</a>(Lam Research), American business Kelei (KLA).Trump, who is known as \"America first\", may not have expected that beating any link in the global industrial chain would have unpredictable effects.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297e3e249ee82777b45b4bd1ee6ace91\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>In-depth cooperation with some US suppliers, sanctions will directly disrupt the supply chains of these companies。 SMIC's main American suppliers include A, L, and K, while downstream American customers also include Qualcomm and Broadcom.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45a374657acd2b3bfff3bf230d2c8e9f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">These companies attach great importance to the Chinese market and maintain good interactive relations with Chinese customers such as SMIC. previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>He once actively lobbied the Trump administration for Huawei. It can be speculated that the loosening of this policy was only due to the effective communication between American equipment manufacturers and SMIC.On the other hand, \"sanctions\" have disrupted the global chip supply chain and caused a backlash to the United States.Last year, Huawei began to hoard chips in response to US \"sanctions\", occupying<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And the production capacity of fabs such as MediaTek. Later, the production of wafer fabs slowed down due to the epidemic, resulting in a large backlog of orders. However, the orders during the epidemic have not been digested, and the economy has begun to recover again, bringing about an increase in chip demand in consumer electronics, automotive electronics, industrial production and other scenarios.The \"chip crisis\" quickly spread to U.S. consumer electronics, automobile and other industries, bringing violent shocks。 The revenue that the two major U.S. car companies-General Motors and Ford should have during the year has been lowered by about 1/3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>There are even plans to suspend production at three factories in North America for this purpose. Since the existing chip demand exceeds 30% of the supply capacity, it will take at least 3 to 4 quarters to achieve a balance between supply and demand, which means that the \"chip crisis\" may last until 2022.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8939d25e16c01a64dc1e3f4ce4cab17e\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">American companies can't wait so long. The Biden administration has just taken office,Representatives of several technology companies, auto industry and other business interest groups rushed to send letters to Biden, calling the issue a national priority。As a result, Trump acted as a demon and asked Biden to wipe his ass.After Biden took office, he immediately signed an executive order targeting the \"chip crisis\" and quickly cooperated with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>A cooperation has been reached. The latter will spend approximately 233.2 billion yuan to build six new 5nm chip factories in Arizona, USA. Construction will start at the beginning of this year and be put into production in 2024.But the distant water of 2024 cannot quench the near thirst of 2021.02The window period of \"breakthrough\"?The loosening of \"sanctions\" this time also exceeded expectations.The market may not have expected before that the approved license also covers the 14nm process.As early as December 31, it was reported that SMIC had obtained a license from the U.S. Department of Commerce for the equipment required for its mature manufacturing process, and would issue 40,000 to 50,000 pieces of equipment for production capacity at one time. In this regard, the previous market expectation was that process equipment above 28nm would be approved one after another.SMIC's 14nm is still the most advanced process that can be mass-produced for the time being. The 14nm process has been mass-produced in 2019Q4, and the yield rate has reached the industry's mass production level. At the same time, the second-generation FinFET has entered small-scale trial production.The 14nm process was also approved this time, which means that SMIC will get a respite in the mature process that contributes the most to revenue; In the field of advanced manufacturing processes, development will be supported and the dividends of the long process node of 14nm will continue to be enjoyed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/655da6c9b905daafadf40cdfae6383ca\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is an important window period.In terms of performance, SMIC will get orders to support operations。 In 2020Q4, SMIC experienced a decline in gross profit margin, which SMIC admitted was due to \"changes in the international ecology.\"SMIC is also bound to take this opportunity to carry out \"breakthrough\" work. Before the change of the U.S. government in December last year, there was news that SMIC and ASML were negotiating on EUV lithography equipment.The pressure caused by this \"chip crisis\" on the U.S. industry will become a bargaining chip for SMIC to further \"break through\".Of course, the United States still has restrictions on manufacturing processes below 10nm. The market has not expected too much of a further relaxation of \"sanctions\". After all, Biden has no reason to allow SMIC to achieve technological breakthroughs.Part of the reason why SMIC failed to master the 7nm process technology was that it could not obtain extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment from ASML, a Dutch lithography manufacturer. Behind this is also the United States-starting in 2018, the Netherlands has held at least four meetings with the United States to discuss whether to supply EUV lithography to Chinese companies.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f002d8139515fa6676857d61e75d490\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">After Biden took office,Although it tried its best to discredit the Trump administration, the political legacy of \"sanctions against China\" was ambiguously accepted, so far there are not many influential statements.Will continued sanctions hurt the global industrial chain? That's all Trump's pot!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c913f243d1bf5f2126d3c6565146560c\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">03SMIC's \"breakthrough\", where is the road ahead?For SMIC, the market's depressed sentiment will be eased in the short term, and the valuation will be further repaired. But in the long run, we still have to continue to be under pressure under \"sanctions\".Therefore, in order not to be controlled by others, SMIC is also silently trying to catch up with the level of \"top students\".In December 2020, Liang Mengsong, a big coffee in the chip industry, submitted a resignation letter to SMIC (although he later appeared in the list of executives), and revealed an important piece of information in the letter:The development of SMIC's 7nm technology has been completed and will immediately enter venture mass production in April next year。 The eight most critical and arduous technologies of 5nm and 3nm have also been launched in an orderly manner. Only after the arrival of EUV lithography, they can enter the comprehensive development stage.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c896767e601f175e478e00ca51e35f\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The reason for Liang Mengsong's resignation is said to be related to Jiang Shangyi, the godfather of chips that SMIC just invited back and the veteran of TSMC.Jiang Shangyi's return is an important move.It is Jiang's father's dream to develop advanced packaging and system integration technology in mainland China.And Jiang Shangyi has a good relationship with ASML. ASML dominates the global lithography market, Jiang Shangyi and others have contributed a lot。Jiang's father holds the red thread,SMIC can at least sit down with ASML and have a good talk, or seek other ways to bypass the US \"blockade\"。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467c977bcf09d36ca11667136d44899d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although, everything has not been confirmed yet.Capital naturally seeks advantages and avoids disadvantages. At present, it is unknown whether and how long the \"sanctions\" against SMIC will be relaxed. Only one thing is certain about the capital market:It is even more difficult for the American emperor at the top of the pyramid to give up the cake。","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After being stuck for half a year, SMIC finally took a breath</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter being stuck for half a year, SMIC finally took a breath\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n格隆汇投资学苑 \n2021-03-03 08:21\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe winner of the \"chip crisis\"?“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Obtained the US 14nm license. \"Yesterday's news stirred up today's market sentiment, and Western media such as CNBC and The Wall Street Journal also reported related news.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34033eeb8e6d504b9b220624b1510de7\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In December last year, the US Department of Commerce will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Included in the \"Entity List\" suppressed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Valuation. The relaxation of \"sanctions\" this time may be related to the current global shortage of chips-the \"seven injuries\" of the US imperialist may have made itself uncomfortable.01\"Sanctions\" relaxed, in line with expectationsThe relaxation of \"sanctions\" is basically in line with expectations.It can be seen from the news that among some suppliers in the United States, Company A has obtained relevant licenses, while Company L and Company K are still waiting for the results. They will also obtain licenses one after another. The licenses take 10nm as the cutoff point, and 14nm and above process-related products have been licensed, but nodes of 10nm and below have not obtained licenses.A, L and K respectively refer to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>Applied Materials,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">RAM Study</a>(Lam Research), American business Kelei (KLA).Trump, who is known as \"America first\", may not have expected that beating any link in the global industrial chain would have unpredictable effects.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297e3e249ee82777b45b4bd1ee6ace91\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>In-depth cooperation with some US suppliers, sanctions will directly disrupt the supply chains of these companies。 SMIC's main American suppliers include A, L, and K, while downstream American customers also include Qualcomm and Broadcom.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45a374657acd2b3bfff3bf230d2c8e9f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">These companies attach great importance to the Chinese market and maintain good interactive relations with Chinese customers such as SMIC. previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>He once actively lobbied the Trump administration for Huawei. It can be speculated that the loosening of this policy was only due to the effective communication between American equipment manufacturers and SMIC.On the other hand, \"sanctions\" have disrupted the global chip supply chain and caused a backlash to the United States.Last year, Huawei began to hoard chips in response to US \"sanctions\", occupying<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And the production capacity of fabs such as MediaTek. Later, the production of wafer fabs slowed down due to the epidemic, resulting in a large backlog of orders. However, the orders during the epidemic have not been digested, and the economy has begun to recover again, bringing about an increase in chip demand in consumer electronics, automotive electronics, industrial production and other scenarios.The \"chip crisis\" quickly spread to U.S. consumer electronics, automobile and other industries, bringing violent shocks。 The revenue that the two major U.S. car companies-General Motors and Ford should have during the year has been lowered by about 1/3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>There are even plans to suspend production at three factories in North America for this purpose. Since the existing chip demand exceeds 30% of the supply capacity, it will take at least 3 to 4 quarters to achieve a balance between supply and demand, which means that the \"chip crisis\" may last until 2022.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8939d25e16c01a64dc1e3f4ce4cab17e\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">American companies can't wait so long. The Biden administration has just taken office,Representatives of several technology companies, auto industry and other business interest groups rushed to send letters to Biden, calling the issue a national priority。As a result, Trump acted as a demon and asked Biden to wipe his ass.After Biden took office, he immediately signed an executive order targeting the \"chip crisis\" and quickly cooperated with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>A cooperation has been reached. The latter will spend approximately 233.2 billion yuan to build six new 5nm chip factories in Arizona, USA. Construction will start at the beginning of this year and be put into production in 2024.But the distant water of 2024 cannot quench the near thirst of 2021.02The window period of \"breakthrough\"?The loosening of \"sanctions\" this time also exceeded expectations.The market may not have expected before that the approved license also covers the 14nm process.As early as December 31, it was reported that SMIC had obtained a license from the U.S. Department of Commerce for the equipment required for its mature manufacturing process, and would issue 40,000 to 50,000 pieces of equipment for production capacity at one time. In this regard, the previous market expectation was that process equipment above 28nm would be approved one after another.SMIC's 14nm is still the most advanced process that can be mass-produced for the time being. The 14nm process has been mass-produced in 2019Q4, and the yield rate has reached the industry's mass production level. At the same time, the second-generation FinFET has entered small-scale trial production.The 14nm process was also approved this time, which means that SMIC will get a respite in the mature process that contributes the most to revenue; In the field of advanced manufacturing processes, development will be supported and the dividends of the long process node of 14nm will continue to be enjoyed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/655da6c9b905daafadf40cdfae6383ca\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is an important window period.In terms of performance, SMIC will get orders to support operations。 In 2020Q4, SMIC experienced a decline in gross profit margin, which SMIC admitted was due to \"changes in the international ecology.\"SMIC is also bound to take this opportunity to carry out \"breakthrough\" work. Before the change of the U.S. government in December last year, there was news that SMIC and ASML were negotiating on EUV lithography equipment.The pressure caused by this \"chip crisis\" on the U.S. industry will become a bargaining chip for SMIC to further \"break through\".Of course, the United States still has restrictions on manufacturing processes below 10nm. The market has not expected too much of a further relaxation of \"sanctions\". After all, Biden has no reason to allow SMIC to achieve technological breakthroughs.Part of the reason why SMIC failed to master the 7nm process technology was that it could not obtain extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment from ASML, a Dutch lithography manufacturer. Behind this is also the United States-starting in 2018, the Netherlands has held at least four meetings with the United States to discuss whether to supply EUV lithography to Chinese companies.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f002d8139515fa6676857d61e75d490\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">After Biden took office,Although it tried its best to discredit the Trump administration, the political legacy of \"sanctions against China\" was ambiguously accepted, so far there are not many influential statements.Will continued sanctions hurt the global industrial chain? That's all Trump's pot!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c913f243d1bf5f2126d3c6565146560c\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">03SMIC's \"breakthrough\", where is the road ahead?For SMIC, the market's depressed sentiment will be eased in the short term, and the valuation will be further repaired. But in the long run, we still have to continue to be under pressure under \"sanctions\".Therefore, in order not to be controlled by others, SMIC is also silently trying to catch up with the level of \"top students\".In December 2020, Liang Mengsong, a big coffee in the chip industry, submitted a resignation letter to SMIC (although he later appeared in the list of executives), and revealed an important piece of information in the letter:The development of SMIC's 7nm technology has been completed and will immediately enter venture mass production in April next year。 The eight most critical and arduous technologies of 5nm and 3nm have also been launched in an orderly manner. Only after the arrival of EUV lithography, they can enter the comprehensive development stage.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c896767e601f175e478e00ca51e35f\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The reason for Liang Mengsong's resignation is said to be related to Jiang Shangyi, the godfather of chips that SMIC just invited back and the veteran of TSMC.Jiang Shangyi's return is an important move.It is Jiang's father's dream to develop advanced packaging and system integration technology in mainland China.And Jiang Shangyi has a good relationship with ASML. ASML dominates the global lithography market, Jiang Shangyi and others have contributed a lot。Jiang's father holds the red thread,SMIC can at least sit down with ASML and have a good talk, or seek other ways to bypass the US \"blockade\"。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467c977bcf09d36ca11667136d44899d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although, everything has not been confirmed yet.Capital naturally seeks advantages and avoids disadvantages. At present, it is unknown whether and how long the \"sanctions\" against SMIC will be relaxed. Only one thing is certain about the capital market:It is even more difficult for the American emperor at the top of the pyramid to give up the cake。\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdb458f2c3eed8796a1e2ecf37309073","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","00981":"中芯国际"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113167033","content_text":"“芯片危机”的赢家？\n\n“中芯国际获美国14nm许可。”\n昨天这则消息，搅动了今天的市场情绪，CNBC、《华尔街时报》等西方媒体也报道了相关新闻。\n\n去年12月，美国商务部将中芯国际列入“实体清单”，压制了中芯国际的估值。而这一次“制裁”放宽，可能与目前全球芯片的短缺有关——美帝的“七伤拳”或已让自己都开始顶不顺。\n01\n“制裁”放宽，符合预期\n此次“制裁”放宽，基本符合预期。\n消息中可以看到，美国部分供应商中A公司已经拿到相关许可证，L公司和K公司还在等待结果，判断后边也会陆续拿到许可证，许可证以10nm为分界点，14nm及以上工艺制程相关产品获得许可，10nm及以下节点未拿到许可证。\nA、L、K分别指代应用材料（Applied Materials）、拉姆研究（Lam Research）、美商科磊（KLA）。\n号称“美国优先”的特朗普也许没想到，敲打全球化产业链的任何一个环节，都会造成难以预料的影响。\n\n一方面，中芯国际与部分美国供应商深入合作，制裁将直接扰乱这些公司的供应链。中芯国际的主要美国供应商就包括A、L、K三家，而下游的美国客户还包括高通和博通。\n\n这些公司重视中国市场，与中芯国际等中国客户也保持着良好的互动关系。此前高通曾经替华为积极游说特朗普政府。可以推测，在美国设备厂家和中芯国际的有效沟通下，才有了此次政策的松动。\n另一方面是“制裁”扰乱了全球芯片供应链，对美国造成反噬。\n去年华为为应对美国“制裁”开始囤积芯片，挤占了台积电和联发科等晶圆厂的产能。后来晶圆厂又因疫情导致生产放缓，大量订单积压。而疫情期间的订单还没消化完，经济又开始复苏，带来消费电子、汽车电子、工业生产等场景下芯片需求提升。\n“芯片危机”迅速传到到美国消费电子、汽车等行业，带来剧烈震荡。美国两大车企——通用、福特年内本应拥有的营收被拉低约1/3，通用汽车甚至计划为此暂停北美三座工厂的生产。由于现有芯片需求超过供应能力的30%，要实现供需平衡，至少需3~4个季度，这意味着“芯片危机”可能持续到2022年。\n\n美国公司等不了这么久了。拜登政府刚上任，多家技术公司、汽车行业和其他商业利益团体的协会代表，就急忙向拜登致信，称该问题为国家优先事项。\n结果特朗普作的妖，还要拜登擦屁股。\n拜登上台后，立即签署了针对“芯片危机”的行政命令，并很快与台积电达成了合作，后者将斥资约2332亿元人民币在美国亚利桑那州新建6座5nm芯片厂，今年初开工，2024年投产。\n可是2024的远水，不解2021的近渴。\n02\n“突围”的窗口期？\n这次“制裁”松绑也有超出预期的部分。\n此前市场可能没想到，获批许可证还涵盖14nm制程。\n早在12月31日就有消息，中芯国际获得美国商务部对其成熟制程所需设备的许可证，并将一次性发放4万~5万片产能所用的设备。对此，此前市场的预期是：28nm以上制程设备将陆续获批。\n中芯国际的14nm暂时还属于可量产的最先进制程。14nm工艺已在2019Q4量产，良品率达业界量产水准，同时第二代FinFET已进入小量试产。\n这次14nm制程也获通过，意味着中芯国际在营收贡献最大的成熟制程上将获喘息机会；在先进制程领域，发展将得到支持，持续享受14nm这个长工艺节点的红利。\n\n这是一个重要的窗口期。\n在业绩上，中芯国际将获得订单以支持运转。2020Q4中芯国际就出现了毛利率下降的情况，中芯国际承认是由于“国际生态的变动”所致。\n中芯国际也势必借此开展“突围”工作。去年12月美国政府换届前，就有消息曝出中芯国际与ASML就EUV光刻机设备谈判的消息。这次“芯片危机”对美国产业造成的压力，将成为中芯国际进一步“突围”的筹码。\n当然，美国方面对10nm以下的制程依然限制。市场对“制裁”进一步放宽也未抱过分期待，毕竟拜登不存在允许中芯国际取得技术突破的理由。\n中芯国际之所以未能掌握7nm制程工艺，部分原因在于不能获得荷兰光刻机大厂ASML的极紫外（EUV）光刻机设备。这背后也是美国——2018年开始，荷兰至少与美国展开4此会议，讨论是否向中国企业供应EUV光刻机。\n\n拜登上台后，虽然极力抹黑特朗普政府，但“对华制裁”这一政治遗产却是暧昧不明地接受了，截至目前没有太多有影响力的表态。\n继续制裁会伤害全球产业链？那可都是特朗普的锅！\n\n03\n中芯“突围”，前路何在？\n对于中芯国际而言，市场的压抑情绪将短期得到缓解，估值进一步修复。可长期来看，还是要在“制裁”之下继续承压。\n所以为了不受制于人，中芯国际也在默默努力追赶“尖子生”的水平。\n2020年12月，芯片界大咖梁孟松给中芯国际递交了一封辞职信（虽然后来他又出现在高管名单中），并在信中透露了一项重要信息：中芯国际7nm技术的开发已经完成，明年四月就可以马上进入风险量产。5nm和3nm最关键、也是最艰巨的8大项技术也已经有序展开，只待EUV光刻机的到来，就可以进入全面开发阶段。\n\n梁孟松辞职的原因，据说与中芯国际刚请回来的芯片教父级人物、台积电开朝元老蒋尚义有关。\n蒋尚义的回归是重要的一步棋。\n在大陆发展先进封装和系统整合技术，是蒋爸的梦想。而蒋尚义与ASML交好。ASML称霸全球光刻机市场，蒋尚义等人功不可没。\n有蒋爸牵红线，中芯至少可与ASML坐下来好好谈，或是寻求其他方式绕开美国“封锁”。\n\n尽管，一切还没有实锤。\n资本自然是趋利避害的。目前对中芯国际“制裁”会不会放宽、能放宽多久尚不可知。唯有一点对资本市场确定的：金字塔顶端的美帝，要让出蛋糕是难上加难。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":0.9,"00981":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1795,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}