?-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community

1
Comment
Favorite

海边的风
2021-04-23

Xiabuxiabu, whose stock price has been halved: boiling a small hot pot, requires big thinking

年前，火锅们惨的是业绩；年后，火锅们惨的是股价。从春节前的最后一个交易日算起，无论是“服务主义”的海底捞还是“价格主义”的呷哺呷哺，股价均已达到了腰斩的程度。但从走势来看，海底捞有企稳反弹迹象，呷

Xiabuxiabu, whose stock price has been halved: boiling a small hot pot, requires big thinking

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment

Top
Latest

No comments yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":372095026,"tweetId":"372095026","gmtCreate":1619155466565,"gmtModify":1704720509481,"author":{"id":3552273487943983,"idStr":"3552273487943983","authorId":3552273487943983,"authorIdStr":"3552273487943983","name":"海边的风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f185ca320f1804dd360c6b2ff607fb05","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372095026","repostId":1122556033,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122556033","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"记录新经济的每一个节点","home_visible":1,"media_name":"节点财经","id":"1021708884","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68a2a7c6368376fe8b5cf62e4c84b65e"},"pubTimestamp":1619151436,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122556033?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 12:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Xiabuxiabu, whose stock price has been halved: boiling a small hot pot, requires big thinking","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122556033","media":"节点财经","summary":"年前，火锅们惨的是业绩；年后，火锅们惨的是股价。\n从春节前的最后一个交易日算起，无论是“服务主义”的海底捞还是“价格主义”的呷哺呷哺，股价均已达到了腰斩的程度。\n但从走势来看，海底捞有企稳反弹迹象，呷","content":"Years ago, the miserable performance of hot pots was their performance; Years later, the stock price of hot pot companies was miserable.Counting from the last trading day before the Spring Festival, whether it is \"servicism\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>Or \"pricism\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00520\">Xiabuxiabu</a>, the stock price has reached the level of halving.However, judging from the trend, Haidilao shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding, and Xiabuxiabu is still mired in the mire.As of the close on April 22, Haidilao continued to recover, and its stock price rose 1.1% to close at HK $51.5 per share. Xiabuxiabu fell 1.82% that day, closing at HK $11.88 per share. On the previous 19th, Xiabuxiabu once fell 14.91%.Compared with the historical peak of HK $27.15 per share on February 11, in less than two and a half months, Xiabuxiabu's stock price fell by 56.24%, and its market value evaporated by more than HK $40 billion, while the Hang Seng Index only fell by 7%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9088d126fb74724d8055b038b82072c4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\">There must be a demon when it happens suddenly. Through market news and financial report data, Node Finance came to deeply understand the essence of Xiabuxiabu's \"demon\"./ 01 /Gather together the \"commander\" and run awayRevenue and profit both fellOn the news, the departure of the \"commander\" may be the main reason for the sharp drop in Xiabuxiabu's stock price.Last weekend, some media broke the news that Zhang Zhenwei, CEO of Xiabuxiabu's rapidly developing desktop hot pot brand, had resigned. At present, the news has also been confirmed by Xiabuxiabu.As the \"commander\" who single-handedly led the growth of Coucou, Zhang Zhenwei's resignation affected the overall situation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>According to the report, \"Zhang Zhenwei's execution is strong, especially in terms of store expansion. Investors need to pay attention to the risks associated with the CEO's departure, because no timetable for changing positions has been provided.\"The deeper reason, Node Finance believes, is also attributed to performance.In 2020, under the special background, we pay attention to the atmosphere and like the lively hot pot industry like a withered fish.The financial report shows that in 2020, Xiabuxiabu achieved operating income of 5.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%; Adjusted net profit was 131 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.1%; Profit attributable to shareholders was 1.837 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 99.36%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29ccdfa284bbb9ccbd5ce7379715bae0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Company financial reportCompared with Haidilao's revenue increase but not profit increase (revenue increased by 7.75%, profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 86.81%), the reality of Xiabuxiabu's revenue and net profit decline is even more tragic.In terms of business, the main brands, namely the popular brand Xiabuxiabu, the upgraded high-end brand Coucou, and condiments, performed differently.Among them, Xiabuxiabu restaurants achieved revenue of 3.46 billion yuan in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 25.9%, accounting for approximately 64.2% of total revenue, and are the main source of revenue for the group.Node Finance noticed that most of Xiabuxiabu restaurants are concentrated in North China, especially in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and other places where the epidemic was more severe last year. This may be one of the factors that led to the shrinkage of its profits.However, due to measures such as optimizing the product mix, regularly launching new products, and increasing the sales of delivery and first products, the per capita consumption of Xiabuxiabu customers increased from 55.8 yuan in 2019 to 62.3 yuan in 2020.To put it bluntly, the price has increased.As a regular customer of Xiabuxiabu, Xiaobian deeply realizes that in the past, 120 yuan was enough for two people to eat hot pot in Xiabu, but now 140 yuan is enough, and many dishes have quietly become expensive or quietly reduced. According to the introduction of public comments, the per capita consumption of Xiabuxiabu-related stores has reached 66 yuan.Coucou, another hot pot brand, achieved revenue of 1.689 billion yuan in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 40.75%, accounting for 30.99% of the group's total revenue. However, due to the increase in promotional discounts during the epidemic, its per capita consumption dropped from 131.5 yuan in 2019 to 126.6 yuan, and same-store sales were 964 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%.To achieve such results in the cold year of 2020, Coucou's efforts have been recognized.As Goldman Sachs said, \"Coucou Catering has been the main growth driver of Xiabuxiabu in recent years. Coucou Catering has recovered healthily since COVID-19 pandemic was controlled, and reached the level before the epidemic in March this year. The market also expects Coucou Catering to maintain strong room for expansion in the next few years.\"But to a certain extent, it is precisely because Coucou's contribution to Xiabuxiabu's performance is getting higher and higher that the resignation of the \"commander\" will inevitably make the market worry about its subsequent development, which will in turn affect the valuation pattern.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/614b608c085ef2aa08cf8791d078db93\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Xiabuxiabu financial reportThe condiment business, which started in the third quarter of 2018, saw a gratifying growth in 2020 due to the group's continuous expansion of sales channels and the launch of new products, recording sales of 1.478 billion yuan, a significant increase of 65% from 896 million yuan in 2019.In general, except for the main brand Xiabuxiabu, the revenue of the three major businesses of Xiabuxiabu declined, and the other two major businesses all performed well./ 02 /More and more stores are opening, and the turnover rate is getting lower and lowerXiabuxiabu originated from Taiwan Province, China and was founded in Beijing in 1998. In the first few years, the independent small hot pot model did not make Xiabuxiabu an instant hit, but hovered on the verge of bankruptcy. It is said that at the worst time, only 3 pots were sold a day.Until 2003, SARS created a rare opportunity, and the one-person hot pot with its own meal-sharing gene became the first choice for consumers to eat out. Xiabuxiabu took advantage of the situation and launched the slogan \"one person, one pot, SARS can't be infected\", and was instantly promoted to the market's \"Chosen Son\", once setting a dining record of 2,000 people per day.Since then, Xiabuxiabu's operation has been on the right track, and it was successfully listed in Hong Kong at the end of 2014, starting the road of expansion.According to its financial report, from 2014 to 2020, the number of Xiabuxiabu stores increased from 452 to 1,061, and the number of newly opened stores was 86, 100, 112, 155, 195, 243, and 129. Except for 2020, which was interrupted by the epidemic, there are more and more stores every year.However, with the increasing frequency of store opening and the increasing number of stores, the turnover rate of Xiabuxiabu has been declining.From 2014 to 2020, the turnover rates of Xiabuxiabu were 3.8 times, 3.4 times, 3.4 times, 3.3 times, 2.8 times, 2.6 times, and 2.3 times respectively.Specifically, by 2020, Xiabuxiabu's corresponding seat turnover rates in first-, second-, and third-tier cities will be 2.7 times, 2.1 times, and 2 times. Compared with 3.3 times, 2.3 times, and 2 times in 2019, the seat turnover rate in first-tier cities will drop significantly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/189ebe7a66b4b8b7240dc3cfc623b409\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Xiabuxiabu financial reportThe calculation method of turnover rate is to divide the revenue from restaurant catering sales during the year by the total flow of restaurant customers during the year, which indicates the reuse rate of dining tables and reflects the strength of profitability.For example, a table for 4 people, only when the table is full of 4 people, can the table turnover rate be doubled; If 2 people eat, the turnover rate is only 0.5 times; If one person eats, the table turnover rate is only 0.25 times.Generally speaking, the turnover rate is an unavoidable topic for any catering enterprise, and it is also one of the most important indicators to examine the operation of restaurants. A high turnover rate means that within limited space and limited business hours, the turnover rate of seats can be increased, and the revenue will be doubled, and vice versa.In response to the falling turnover rate, Xiabuxiabu CEO Zhao Yi previously said in an interview with the media that the decline in turnover rate is related to expansion and encryption after listing.The turnover rate of Coucou shows the same trend. From 2017 to 2020, the number of new stores opened in Coucou was 21, 48, 54, and 38 respectively. As of the end of 2020, Coucou had a total of 140 stores, with a turnover rate of 2.5 times, a decrease of 0.4 times from 2019.Combined with the aforementioned fact that the per capita consumption and same-store sales of Coucou restaurants have declined year-on-year, Node Finance believes that the growth of Coucou is likely to be a new increase made by the expansion of stores.Compared with Haidilao, which is also listed on H-shares, its turnover rate dropped from 5 in 2018 to 4.8 in 2019, and further dropped to 3.5 in 2020. Although it has also dropped a lot, it is still higher than Xiabuxiabu and Xiabuxiabu. Coucou.Regarding the store opening plan in 2021, Xiabuxiabu stated that it will continue to maintain the speed of expansion. The Xiabuxiabu brand will focus on East China, South China and other regions, and the Coucou brand will sink into second-and third-tier cities on the basis of the encryption of first-tier cities.There is an unwritten rule in both retail and catering industries, and expansion will cause the number of visitors to be \"averaged\". If the stores are opened too densely, they will \"fight in the same room\", the revenue of a single store in the retail industry will decline, and the turnover rate in the catering industry will decline. However, if the expansion is moderate, the total revenue will still rise.How to grasp this \"moderation\" is what Xiabuxiabu needs to consider./ 03 /Long road to transformationIs it difficult for Xiabuxiabu to \"boil\"?After a long period of popularity, the \"short, flat and fast\" leisure hot pot began to show signs of weakness in 2015.Faced with the general trend of consumption upgrading and the bottleneck of the development of affordable hot pot, Xiabuxiabu launched a plan to transform from fast food to light luxury dinner in 2016, launched a mid-to-high-end Coucou party restaurant, introduced a tea bar, and focused on hot pot + tea break. The new form, the target consumers shifted from those with a unit price of 40 yuan to those with a unit price of 200 yuan.From the beginning, Coucou formulated a \"rapid development\" brand strategy. According to Zhang Zhenwei's sharing at this year's \"China Catering Innovation Conference\", \"In the past four years, Coucou has opened a new store every 11 days on average, setting the fastest growth rate of directly operated catering stores.\"Through differentiated operations and national expansion, the revenue earned by Coucou has increased from 117 million yuan in 2017 to 1.689 billion yuan in 2020, and the proportion of revenue has increased from 0.32% in 2017 to more than 30% in 2020, gradually growing into a \"leading\" role.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c901a461e30bb90234d8c038ddf509b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Xiabuxiabu financial reportHowever, it is too early to think that Xiabuxiabu's transformation road is successful.Node Finance reviewed the financial report and found that since the upgrade, Xiabuxiabu's net profit has been declining, from 462 million yuan in 2018 to 1.837 million yuan in 2020. The road to transformation does not seem to be smooth.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff78532885b2d10d098369f6ad4d776\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Xiabuxiabu financial reportIn addition, Coucou, which shoulders the important task of opening up Xiabuxiabu's second profit curve and grabbing mid-to-high-end market share, also faces the risk of \"poaching\".In recent years, in order to make the brand refined, casual and literary, Xiabuxiabu brand has worked hard on various factors such as store image, product structure, tea drinks, environment, and services, trying to improve customer experience and brand recognition through new store shaping.However, the upgraded Xiabuxiabu store is becoming more and more similar to the \"good brothers\".For example, in a Xiabu store in Beijing, the decoration style has been changed to a stable classical design, with dim lighting, dark brown wooden furniture, and a sense of privacy separated by partitions. The feeling of walking in is not much different from that of Coucou, although the difference between the two is more than double the unit price.From the perspective of the competition situation in the industry, the upgrading road based on Coucou especially faces \"Big Mac\" rivals like Haidilao. Whether it is brand, product, or service, Coucou has a longer way to go. At the same time, it is also faced with the squeeze of hot pot brands such as Banu, Baheli, and Dayu. It is not easy for Xiabuxiabu to \"boil\" as a whole.It is worth recalling that starting from mid-March, various capitals began to sell Xiabuxiabu on a large scale. Morgan Stanley's shareholding ratio in Xiabuxiabu has been reduced from 9.25% to only 0.93%. Hillhouse Capital directly chose to clear the position.At the same time, since the company only added 3 new stores in the first quarter of this year, Goldman Sachs will reduce its forecast for the number of store expansions in 2021-2023 from 80, 76, and 81 to 60, 65, and 65. Based on the expected decline in Coucou's contribution, Xiabuxiabu's net profit forecast for 2021-2023 will be lowered by 2-6%.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xiabuxiabu, whose stock price has been halved: boiling a small hot pot, requires big thinking</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXiabuxiabu, whose stock price has been halved: boiling a small hot pot, requires big thinking\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1021708884\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/68a2a7c6368376fe8b5cf62e4c84b65e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n节点财经 \n2021-04-23 12:17\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nYears ago, the miserable performance of hot pots was their performance; Years later, the stock price of hot pot companies was miserable.Counting from the last trading day before the Spring Festival, whether it is \"servicism\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>Or \"pricism\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00520\">Xiabuxiabu</a>, the stock price has reached the level of halving.However, judging from the trend, Haidilao shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding, and Xiabuxiabu is still mired in the mire.As of the close on April 22, Haidilao continued to recover, and its stock price rose 1.1% to close at HK $51.5 per share. Xiabuxiabu fell 1.82% that day, closing at HK $11.88 per share. On the previous 19th, Xiabuxiabu once fell 14.91%.Compared with the historical peak of HK $27.15 per share on February 11, in less than two and a half months, Xiabuxiabu's stock price fell by 56.24%, and its market value evaporated by more than HK $40 billion, while the Hang Seng Index only fell by 7%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9088d126fb74724d8055b038b82072c4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\">There must be a demon when it happens suddenly. Through market news and financial report data, Node Finance came to deeply understand the essence of Xiabuxiabu's \"demon\"./ 01 /Gather together the \"commander\" and run awayRevenue and profit both fellOn the news, the departure of the \"commander\" may be the main reason for the sharp drop in Xiabuxiabu's stock price.Last weekend, some media broke the news that Zhang Zhenwei, CEO of Xiabuxiabu's rapidly developing desktop hot pot brand, had resigned. At present, the news has also been confirmed by Xiabuxiabu.As the \"commander\" who single-handedly led the growth of Coucou, Zhang Zhenwei's resignation affected the overall situation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>According to the report, \"Zhang Zhenwei's execution is strong, especially in terms of store expansion. Investors need to pay attention to the risks associated with the CEO's departure, because no timetable for changing positions has been provided.\"The deeper reason, Node Finance believes, is also attributed to performance.In 2020, under the special background, we pay attention to the atmosphere and like the lively hot pot industry like a withered fish.The financial report shows that in 2020, Xiabuxiabu achieved operating income of 5.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%; Adjusted net profit was 131 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.1%; Profit attributable to shareholders was 1.837 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 99.36%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29ccdfa284bbb9ccbd5ce7379715bae0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Company financial reportCompared with Haidilao's revenue increase but not profit increase (revenue increased by 7.75%, profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 86.81%), the reality of Xiabuxiabu's revenue and net profit decline is even more tragic.In terms of business, the main brands, namely the popular brand Xiabuxiabu, the upgraded high-end brand Coucou, and condiments, performed differently.Among them, Xiabuxiabu restaurants achieved revenue of 3.46 billion yuan in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 25.9%, accounting for approximately 64.2% of total revenue, and are the main source of revenue for the group.Node Finance noticed that most of Xiabuxiabu restaurants are concentrated in North China, especially in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and other places where the epidemic was more severe last year. This may be one of the factors that led to the shrinkage of its profits.However, due to measures such as optimizing the product mix, regularly launching new products, and increasing the sales of delivery and first products, the per capita consumption of Xiabuxiabu customers increased from 55.8 yuan in 2019 to 62.3 yuan in 2020.To put it bluntly, the price has increased.As a regular customer of Xiabuxiabu, Xiaobian deeply realizes that in the past, 120 yuan was enough for two people to eat hot pot in Xiabu, but now 140 yuan is enough, and many dishes have quietly become expensive or quietly reduced. According to the introduction of public comments, the per capita consumption of Xiabuxiabu-related stores has reached 66 yuan.Coucou, another hot pot brand, achieved revenue of 1.689 billion yuan in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 40.75%, accounting for 30.99% of the group's total revenue. However, due to the increase in promotional discounts during the epidemic, its per capita consumption dropped from 131.5 yuan in 2019 to 126.6 yuan, and same-store sales were 964 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%.To achieve such results in the cold year of 2020, Coucou's efforts have been recognized.As Goldman Sachs said, \"Coucou Catering has been the main growth driver of Xiabuxiabu in recent years. Coucou Catering has recovered healthily since COVID-19 pandemic was controlled, and reached the level before the epidemic in March this year. The market also expects Coucou Catering to maintain strong room for expansion in the next few years.\"But to a certain extent, it is precisely because Coucou's contribution to Xiabuxiabu's performance is getting higher and higher that the resignation of the \"commander\" will inevitably make the market worry about its subsequent development, which will in turn affect the valuation pattern.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/614b608c085ef2aa08cf8791d078db93\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Xiabuxiabu financial reportThe condiment business, which started in the third quarter of 2018, saw a gratifying growth in 2020 due to the group's continuous expansion of sales channels and the launch of new products, recording sales of 1.478 billion yuan, a significant increase of 65% from 896 million yuan in 2019.In general, except for the main brand Xiabuxiabu, the revenue of the three major businesses of Xiabuxiabu declined, and the other two major businesses all performed well./ 02 /More and more stores are opening, and the turnover rate is getting lower and lowerXiabuxiabu originated from Taiwan Province, China and was founded in Beijing in 1998. In the first few years, the independent small hot pot model did not make Xiabuxiabu an instant hit, but hovered on the verge of bankruptcy. It is said that at the worst time, only 3 pots were sold a day.Until 2003, SARS created a rare opportunity, and the one-person hot pot with its own meal-sharing gene became the first choice for consumers to eat out. Xiabuxiabu took advantage of the situation and launched the slogan \"one person, one pot, SARS can't be infected\", and was instantly promoted to the market's \"Chosen Son\", once setting a dining record of 2,000 people per day.Since then, Xiabuxiabu's operation has been on the right track, and it was successfully listed in Hong Kong at the end of 2014, starting the road of expansion.According to its financial report, from 2014 to 2020, the number of Xiabuxiabu stores increased from 452 to 1,061, and the number of newly opened stores was 86, 100, 112, 155, 195, 243, and 129. Except for 2020, which was interrupted by the epidemic, there are more and more stores every year.However, with the increasing frequency of store opening and the increasing number of stores, the turnover rate of Xiabuxiabu has been declining.From 2014 to 2020, the turnover rates of Xiabuxiabu were 3.8 times, 3.4 times, 3.4 times, 3.3 times, 2.8 times, 2.6 times, and 2.3 times respectively.Specifically, by 2020, Xiabuxiabu's corresponding seat turnover rates in first-, second-, and third-tier cities will be 2.7 times, 2.1 times, and 2 times. Compared with 3.3 times, 2.3 times, and 2 times in 2019, the seat turnover rate in first-tier cities will drop significantly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/189ebe7a66b4b8b7240dc3cfc623b409\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Xiabuxiabu financial reportThe calculation method of turnover rate is to divide the revenue from restaurant catering sales during the year by the total flow of restaurant customers during the year, which indicates the reuse rate of dining tables and reflects the strength of profitability.For example, a table for 4 people, only when the table is full of 4 people, can the table turnover rate be doubled; If 2 people eat, the turnover rate is only 0.5 times; If one person eats, the table turnover rate is only 0.25 times.Generally speaking, the turnover rate is an unavoidable topic for any catering enterprise, and it is also one of the most important indicators to examine the operation of restaurants. A high turnover rate means that within limited space and limited business hours, the turnover rate of seats can be increased, and the revenue will be doubled, and vice versa.In response to the falling turnover rate, Xiabuxiabu CEO Zhao Yi previously said in an interview with the media that the decline in turnover rate is related to expansion and encryption after listing.The turnover rate of Coucou shows the same trend. From 2017 to 2020, the number of new stores opened in Coucou was 21, 48, 54, and 38 respectively. As of the end of 2020, Coucou had a total of 140 stores, with a turnover rate of 2.5 times, a decrease of 0.4 times from 2019.Combined with the aforementioned fact that the per capita consumption and same-store sales of Coucou restaurants have declined year-on-year, Node Finance believes that the growth of Coucou is likely to be a new increase made by the expansion of stores.Compared with Haidilao, which is also listed on H-shares, its turnover rate dropped from 5 in 2018 to 4.8 in 2019, and further dropped to 3.5 in 2020. Although it has also dropped a lot, it is still higher than Xiabuxiabu and Xiabuxiabu. Coucou.Regarding the store opening plan in 2021, Xiabuxiabu stated that it will continue to maintain the speed of expansion. The Xiabuxiabu brand will focus on East China, South China and other regions, and the Coucou brand will sink into second-and third-tier cities on the basis of the encryption of first-tier cities.There is an unwritten rule in both retail and catering industries, and expansion will cause the number of visitors to be \"averaged\". If the stores are opened too densely, they will \"fight in the same room\", the revenue of a single store in the retail industry will decline, and the turnover rate in the catering industry will decline. However, if the expansion is moderate, the total revenue will still rise.How to grasp this \"moderation\" is what Xiabuxiabu needs to consider./ 03 /Long road to transformationIs it difficult for Xiabuxiabu to \"boil\"?After a long period of popularity, the \"short, flat and fast\" leisure hot pot began to show signs of weakness in 2015.Faced with the general trend of consumption upgrading and the bottleneck of the development of affordable hot pot, Xiabuxiabu launched a plan to transform from fast food to light luxury dinner in 2016, launched a mid-to-high-end Coucou party restaurant, introduced a tea bar, and focused on hot pot + tea break. The new form, the target consumers shifted from those with a unit price of 40 yuan to those with a unit price of 200 yuan.From the beginning, Coucou formulated a \"rapid development\" brand strategy. According to Zhang Zhenwei's sharing at this year's \"China Catering Innovation Conference\", \"In the past four years, Coucou has opened a new store every 11 days on average, setting the fastest growth rate of directly operated catering stores.\"Through differentiated operations and national expansion, the revenue earned by Coucou has increased from 117 million yuan in 2017 to 1.689 billion yuan in 2020, and the proportion of revenue has increased from 0.32% in 2017 to more than 30% in 2020, gradually growing into a \"leading\" role.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c901a461e30bb90234d8c038ddf509b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Xiabuxiabu financial reportHowever, it is too early to think that Xiabuxiabu's transformation road is successful.Node Finance reviewed the financial report and found that since the upgrade, Xiabuxiabu's net profit has been declining, from 462 million yuan in 2018 to 1.837 million yuan in 2020. The road to transformation does not seem to be smooth.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff78532885b2d10d098369f6ad4d776\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Xiabuxiabu financial reportIn addition, Coucou, which shoulders the important task of opening up Xiabuxiabu's second profit curve and grabbing mid-to-high-end market share, also faces the risk of \"poaching\".In recent years, in order to make the brand refined, casual and literary, Xiabuxiabu brand has worked hard on various factors such as store image, product structure, tea drinks, environment, and services, trying to improve customer experience and brand recognition through new store shaping.However, the upgraded Xiabuxiabu store is becoming more and more similar to the \"good brothers\".For example, in a Xiabu store in Beijing, the decoration style has been changed to a stable classical design, with dim lighting, dark brown wooden furniture, and a sense of privacy separated by partitions. The feeling of walking in is not much different from that of Coucou, although the difference between the two is more than double the unit price.From the perspective of the competition situation in the industry, the upgrading road based on Coucou especially faces \"Big Mac\" rivals like Haidilao. Whether it is brand, product, or service, Coucou has a longer way to go. At the same time, it is also faced with the squeeze of hot pot brands such as Banu, Baheli, and Dayu. It is not easy for Xiabuxiabu to \"boil\" as a whole.It is worth recalling that starting from mid-March, various capitals began to sell Xiabuxiabu on a large scale. Morgan Stanley's shareholding ratio in Xiabuxiabu has been reduced from 9.25% to only 0.93%. Hillhouse Capital directly chose to clear the position.At the same time, since the company only added 3 new stores in the first quarter of this year, Goldman Sachs will reduce its forecast for the number of store expansions in 2021-2023 from 80, 76, and 81 to 60, 65, and 65. Based on the expected decline in Coucou's contribution, Xiabuxiabu's net profit forecast for 2021-2023 will be lowered by 2-6%.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c2b3f524d36890527396679841a0a49","relate_stocks":{"00520":"呷哺呷哺"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122556033","content_text":"年前，火锅们惨的是业绩；年后，火锅们惨的是股价。\n从春节前的最后一个交易日算起，无论是“服务主义”的海底捞还是“价格主义”的呷哺呷哺，股价均已达到了腰斩的程度。\n但从走势来看，海底捞有企稳反弹迹象，呷哺呷哺仍然深陷泥淖。\n截至4月22日收盘，海底捞继续复苏的样子，股价上涨1.1%，收于51.5港元/股。呷哺呷哺则在当天下跌1.82%，收盘于11.88港元/股。此前的19日，呷哺呷哺更是一度大跌14.91%。\n相较2月11日27.15港元/股的历史峰值，不到两个半月的时间，呷哺呷哺股价深跌56.24%，市值蒸发400多亿港元，而恒指仅下滑7%。\n\n事发突然必有妖。透过市场消息和财报数据，节点财经来深扒呷哺呷哺“作妖”的本质。\n/ 01 /\n凑凑“指挥官”出走\n营收、利润双降\n消息面上，凑凑“指挥官”出走或是此番呷哺呷哺股价大跌的主要诱因。\n上周末，有媒体爆出呷哺呷哺旗下发展势头迅猛的台式火锅品牌凑凑CEO张振纬已经离职，目前该消息也得到了呷哺呷哺的确认。\n作为一手带领凑凑成长的“指挥官”，张振纬离职动关大局。高盛发表报告称，“张振纬执行力强劲，尤其是在门店扩张方面。投资者需要注意凑凑CEO离职的相关风险，因为尚未提供更换职位的时间表。”\n更深层次的原因，节点财经认为还要归因于业绩。\n特殊背景下的2020年，讲究氛围，喜欢热闹的火锅业如枯鱼涸辙。\n财报显示，2020年呷哺呷哺实现营业收入54.5亿元，同比下滑9.5%；经调整纯利1.31亿元，同比下滑67.1%；股东应占溢利183.7万元，同比下降99.36%。\n\n数据来源：公司财报\n相比海底捞的增收不增利（营收增长7.75%，股东应占溢利下降86.81%），呷哺呷哺营收和净利双降的现实更加惨烈。\n分业务看，主品牌，即消费者熟知的大众品牌呷哺呷哺、升级高端品牌凑凑、调味品三大板块表现各异。\n其中，2020年全年呷哺呷哺餐厅实现收入34.6亿元，同比减少25.9%，占总收入比重约64.2%，为集团主要收入来源。\n节点财经注意到，呷哺呷哺大多数餐厅集中在华北地区，特别是去年疫情较为严重的北京、天津、河北等地，这或许是导致其盈利缩水的因素之一。\n不过，因为优化产品组合、定期推出新产品，提升外送及先产品销量等措施，呷哺呷哺顾客人均消费由2019年的55.8元上升至2020年的62.3元。\n直白点说就是涨价了。\n小编作为呷哺呷哺的老熟客，深切地体会到，以前在呷哺吃火锅，两个人120元足够，现在140元都够呛，不少菜品都默默地变贵了，或者悄悄地减量了。大众点评介绍中，呷哺呷哺相关门店人均消费已经高达66元。\n另一火锅品牌凑凑2020年实现收入16.89亿元，同比增加40.75%，占集团总收入比重上升到30.99%。但受疫情期间加大促销折扣力度所致，其人均消费额由2019年的131.5元下降至126.6元，同店销售额9.64亿元，同比下滑9.5%。\n在寒冷的2020年能有如此成绩，凑凑的努力得到了认可。\n正如高盛所言，“近年来凑凑餐饮为呷哺呷哺主要的增长动力，凑凑餐饮自新冠疫情受控后健康复苏，在今年3月达到了疫情之前的水平。市场亦预期凑凑餐饮于未来数年保持强劲的扩张空间。”\n但在一定程度上，正是因为凑凑对呷哺呷哺业绩的贡献值越来越高，“指挥官”离职难免让市场忧虑其后续发展，进而影响到估值形态。\n\n数据来源：呷哺呷哺财报\n2018年三季度起步的调味品业务，由于集团不断扩张销售渠道和推出新产品，2020年涨势喜人，录得销售额14.78亿元，较2019年的8.96亿元大幅增加65%。\n总的来说，呷哺呷哺的三大业务除了主打品牌呷哺呷哺收入下降，其他两大业务均表现良好。\n/ 02 /\n店越开越多，翻座率越来越低\n呷哺呷哺源自中国台湾，1998年创立于北京。在最初几年，自主小火锅模式并没有让呷哺呷哺一炮走红，反而徘徊在倒闭边缘，据说最惨的时候一天只卖掉3锅。\n直到2003年，非典造就难得机遇，自带分餐制基因的一人火锅成为消费者外出就餐的首选，呷哺呷哺乘势打出“一人一锅，非典染不上”的口号，瞬间晋升为市场的“天选之子”，一度创出日客流量2000位的就餐记录。\n从那之后，呷哺呷哺的经营走上了正轨，并于2014年底成功赴港上市，开启扩张之路。\n据其财报显示，2014年-2020年，呷哺呷哺的门店数量由452家增加到了1061家，新开店数量分别为86家、100家、112家、155家、195家、243家、129家，除了被疫情打断的2020年，一年比一年多。\n然而，伴随着开店频率越来越高，门店数量越来越多，呷哺呷哺的翻座率却一路下跌。\n2014年至2020年，呷哺呷哺的翻座率分别为3.8倍、3.4倍、3.4倍、3.3倍、2.8倍、2.6倍、2.3倍。\n具体到2020年，呷哺呷哺在一、二、三线城市对应翻座率 2.7倍、2.1倍、2倍，对比2019年的 3.3 倍、2.3 倍、2倍，一线城市翻座率下滑较大。\n\n数据来源：呷哺呷哺财报\n翻座率的计算方式，以年内餐厅餐饮销售所得收入除以年内餐厅顾客总流量，表示餐桌重复使用率，映射出赚钱能力的强弱。\n举个例子，一张4人桌，只有当桌子坐满4个人，才能叫1倍翻台率；如果2人就餐，翻台率就只有0.5倍；如果1人就餐，翻台率就只有0.25倍。\n一般来说，翻座率是任何餐饮企业都绕不开的一个话题，也是考察餐厅经营状况的最重要的指标之一。翻座率高，意味着能在有限的空间和有限的营业时间内，让座位的流动率提高，营收也会成倍提升，反之亦然。\n针对一降再降的翻座率，此前呷哺呷哺CEO赵怡曾在接受媒体采访时表示，翻座率的下降与上市后进行扩张和加密有关。\n凑凑的翻座率呈同样走势。2017年-2020年，凑凑新开店数量分别为21家、48家、54家、38家。截至2020年底，凑凑共有140家门店，翻座率为2.5倍，较2019下降0.4倍。\n结合前述凑凑餐厅人均消费和同店销售额同比下滑的事实，节点财经认为凑凑的增长大概率还是靠门店的扩张而做出的新的增量。\n对比同样于H股上市的海底捞，其翻座率由2018年的5下降至2019年的4.8，并进一步降至2020年的3.5，虽然也下滑了不少，但仍高于呷哺呷哺和凑凑。\n对于2021年开店计划，呷哺呷哺表示将继续保持扩张速度，呷哺呷哺品牌重点布局华东、华南等地区，凑凑品牌在一线城市加密的基础上，进行二、三线城市下沉。\n零售业和餐饮业都有一条不成文的规律，扩张会造成来客数“被平均”。如果开店过密，就会“同室操戈”，零售业出现单店营收下降，餐饮业出现翻台率下降。但是，如果扩张适度，总营收还是会上升。\n如何才能把握好这个“适度”，是呷哺呷哺需要考虑的。\n/ 03 /\n转型路漫漫长\n呷哺呷哺难“沸腾”？\n“短、平、快”的休闲小火锅在经历了很长一段时间的火爆之后，2015年开始呈现疲软的迹象。\n面对消费升级大趋势，以及平价火锅的发展瓶颈，呷哺呷哺在2016年启动从快餐向轻奢正餐转型的计划，推出定位中高端的凑凑聚会餐厅，引入茶饮吧台，主打火锅+茶歇新形式，目标消费者从客单价40元的人群转移至客单价200元的人群。\n一开始，凑凑就制定“快速发展”的品牌战略。按照张振纬在今年“中国餐饮创新大会”上的分享，“过去4年，凑凑平均每11天开一家新店，创下了餐饮直营门店最快的增速。”\n通过差异化运营和全国扩张，凑凑赚取的收入从2017年的1.17亿元提升至2020年的16.89亿元，收入占比从2017年的0.32%提升至2020年的超过30%，逐渐成长为一个“挑大梁”的角色。\n\n数据来源：呷哺呷哺财报\n但就此认为呷哺呷哺的转型之路就是成功的或为时尚早。\n节点财经查阅财报发现，自打升级之后，呷哺呷哺的净利润就在不断下滑，从2018年的4.62亿元减少至2020年的183.70万元，转型之路似乎并不顺畅。\n\n数据来源：呷哺呷哺财报\n另外，肩负开辟呷哺呷哺第二条盈利曲线和抢夺中高端市场份额重任的凑凑还面临“挖墙脚”的风险。\n近年来，为了把品牌往精致化、休闲化、文艺化打造，呷哺呷哺品牌针对门店形象、产品结构、茶饮、环境、服务等各要素苦练功夫，试图通过新店整型来提升顾客体验和品牌认知。\n但升级后的呷哺呷哺门店，却与“好兄弟”凑凑愈长愈像。\n比如北京某呷哺门店，装修风格改为稳重的古典设计，昏暗的灯光，深棕色木质家具，隔断隔出的私密感，走进去的感觉和凑凑并无太大区别，虽然二者在客单价上面相差了一倍多。\n从行业竞争形势来看，以凑凑为主的升级之路尤其要面临海底捞这样的“巨无霸”对手，无论是品牌、产品，还是服务，凑凑都有更长的路要走，同时还要面临巴奴、八合里、大渝等火锅品牌的挤压，呷哺呷哺要想整体“沸腾”起来并不容易。\n值得回味的是，从3月中旬开始，各路资本开始大举抛售呷哺呷哺，大摩对呷哺呷哺的持股比例从9.25%减持到只剩0.93%，持仓长达6年的高瓴资本直接选择清仓。\n与此同时，由于公司今年首季仅新增加3家门店，高盛将凑凑2021-2023年门店扩张数量预期由80家、76家、81家下调至60家、65家、65家，并基于凑凑贡献预期下滑，将呷哺呷哺2021-2023年净利润预测下调2-6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00520":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2251,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}