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2021-04-25

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The Fed's interest rate decision is coming, and the market pays attention to these "signals"

北京时间4月29日凌晨，美联储将公布利率决议及政策声明。华尔街预计美联储官员下周将描绘强劲的经济图景，但同时不会暗示未来政策的改变。投资者越来越信任美联储官员，因为他们表示，即使经济正以近40年来最

The Fed's interest rate decision is coming, and the market pays attention to these "signals"

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Wall Street expects Fed officials to paint a strong economic picture next week, but at the same time will not hint at future policy changes.</p><p>Investors are increasingly trusting Fed officials as they say they won't begin to unwind accommodative policies until it's clear that a recovery has taken hold even as the economy is running at its hottest pace in nearly 40 years.</p><p>Since the pandemic last March, the Federal Reserve has kept short-term borrowing rates near zero and has continued to purchase at least $120 billion in bond-related assets every month. Asset purchases have brought the Fed's balance sheet to nearly $8 trillion, roughly double what it has since the crisis began.</p><p>However, financial markets have been skeptical that the Federal Reserve may be forced to start tightening policy as economic data gets stronger and inflationary pressures begin to increase.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>Group (Charles Schwab) Vice President of Trading and Derivatives Randy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRED\">Fred</a>Randy Frederick said: \"As long as the Fed maintains its current policy, the economic outlook is quite good, and the market has finally accepted their will. The liquidity provided by the Fed will drive the economic recovery, and the challenge is when they decide to withdraw this practice.\"</p><p><b>The Fed will be optimistic about economic outlook</b></p><p>Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to send a positive signal on economic expectations when it concludes its two-day meeting next week, but is unlikely to provide clues as to when policy will tighten.</p><p>Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, wrote that the Fed's statement may \"show a more optimistic attitude towards the economic outlook,\" and it may be the most positive statement issued by the Fed in some time.</p><p>Like many on Wall Street, Hunter expects Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues to elevate their views on the economy, but stressed that there is still some distance from the indicator of \"substantial further progress\" set by the FOMC in its recent post-meeting statement.</p><p>In a recent interview with CBS's \"60 Minutes\" program, Powell said that the U.S. economy has reached an \"inflection point\" in recovery, which caught the attention of the market. But he also went on to emphasize that the labor market needs to make great strides towards achieving full employment and achieving inclusion of different income, race and gender groups.</p><p>Similarly, at the post-meeting press conference, the Fed chair may want to be at least a bit cautious, especially on possible rate hike and tapering the pace of asset purchases.</p><p>Tom Graf, head of the fixed income department of Brown Consulting Company, believes that the Fed may keep its mouth shut and wait until the last minute. \"I doubt there will be tightening signals this month, and I think tightening signals will pop up.\"</p><p>There is an informal consensus on Wall Street that Powell may start talking about tapering bond purchases this summer, with bond purchases expected to modestly pull back by the end of the year.</p><p>Graf said: \"They want to reduce the scale of bond purchases for a while before raising interest rates. They want to create a little flexibility.\"</p><p><b>A possible \"timetable\" for reducing QE</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>David Mericle, an economist at Goldman Sachs, said he expects the Fed to \"hint at tightening\" at some point in the second half of the year and start moving in early 2022. He expects the Fed to initially cut asset purchases by $15 billion at each meeting. The Federal Reserve meets eight times a year, so the total is equal.</p><p>Those details are not expected to be released, though. Merrilk wrote in a note to clients: Despite the recent acceleration of economic growth, we believe it is clearly too early for the Federal Open Market Committee to start hinting at a tapering of bond purchases. \"Although Chairman Powell has recently started to describe the economy as being at an'inflection point '... we don't think he means that this is a signal about policy.\"</p><p>Andrew Hollenhorst, an economist at Citigroup, said that if the Fed decides to start tapering its bond purchases this year, it could start a rate hike as early as late 2022.</p><p>\"At the FOMC in April, we expect to see some fine-tuning, suggesting stronger near-term data, but no new formal guidance on tightening. This will likely be after strong employment data in April and/or May, both of which will be released before subsequent meetings.\"</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>Traders in the federal funds futures market, a federal watch tool, actually think that the possibility of a rate hike at next week's meeting is only 2.8%. This outlook will rise slightly by the end of the year, and by the end of the year, the market has priced in a 10.5% chance.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's interest rate decision is coming, and the market pays attention to these \"signals\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's interest rate decision is coming, and the market pays attention to these \"signals\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-25 10:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the early morning of April 29th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and policy statement. Wall Street expects Fed officials to paint a strong economic picture next week, but at the same time will not hint at future policy changes.</p><p>Investors are increasingly trusting Fed officials as they say they won't begin to unwind accommodative policies until it's clear that a recovery has taken hold even as the economy is running at its hottest pace in nearly 40 years.</p><p>Since the pandemic last March, the Federal Reserve has kept short-term borrowing rates near zero and has continued to purchase at least $120 billion in bond-related assets every month. Asset purchases have brought the Fed's balance sheet to nearly $8 trillion, roughly double what it has since the crisis began.</p><p>However, financial markets have been skeptical that the Federal Reserve may be forced to start tightening policy as economic data gets stronger and inflationary pressures begin to increase.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>Group (Charles Schwab) Vice President of Trading and Derivatives Randy<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRED\">Fred</a>Randy Frederick said: \"As long as the Fed maintains its current policy, the economic outlook is quite good, and the market has finally accepted their will. The liquidity provided by the Fed will drive the economic recovery, and the challenge is when they decide to withdraw this practice.\"</p><p><b>The Fed will be optimistic about economic outlook</b></p><p>Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to send a positive signal on economic expectations when it concludes its two-day meeting next week, but is unlikely to provide clues as to when policy will tighten.</p><p>Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, wrote that the Fed's statement may \"show a more optimistic attitude towards the economic outlook,\" and it may be the most positive statement issued by the Fed in some time.</p><p>Like many on Wall Street, Hunter expects Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues to elevate their views on the economy, but stressed that there is still some distance from the indicator of \"substantial further progress\" set by the FOMC in its recent post-meeting statement.</p><p>In a recent interview with CBS's \"60 Minutes\" program, Powell said that the U.S. economy has reached an \"inflection point\" in recovery, which caught the attention of the market. But he also went on to emphasize that the labor market needs to make great strides towards achieving full employment and achieving inclusion of different income, race and gender groups.</p><p>Similarly, at the post-meeting press conference, the Fed chair may want to be at least a bit cautious, especially on possible rate hike and tapering the pace of asset purchases.</p><p>Tom Graf, head of the fixed income department of Brown Consulting Company, believes that the Fed may keep its mouth shut and wait until the last minute. \"I doubt there will be tightening signals this month, and I think tightening signals will pop up.\"</p><p>There is an informal consensus on Wall Street that Powell may start talking about tapering bond purchases this summer, with bond purchases expected to modestly pull back by the end of the year.</p><p>Graf said: \"They want to reduce the scale of bond purchases for a while before raising interest rates. They want to create a little flexibility.\"</p><p><b>A possible \"timetable\" for reducing QE</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>David Mericle, an economist at Goldman Sachs, said he expects the Fed to \"hint at tightening\" at some point in the second half of the year and start moving in early 2022. He expects the Fed to initially cut asset purchases by $15 billion at each meeting. The Federal Reserve meets eight times a year, so the total is equal.</p><p>Those details are not expected to be released, though. Merrilk wrote in a note to clients: Despite the recent acceleration of economic growth, we believe it is clearly too early for the Federal Open Market Committee to start hinting at a tapering of bond purchases. \"Although Chairman Powell has recently started to describe the economy as being at an'inflection point '... we don't think he means that this is a signal about policy.\"</p><p>Andrew Hollenhorst, an economist at Citigroup, said that if the Fed decides to start tapering its bond purchases this year, it could start a rate hike as early as late 2022.</p><p>\"At the FOMC in April, we expect to see some fine-tuning, suggesting stronger near-term data, but no new formal guidance on tightening. This will likely be after strong employment data in April and/or May, both of which will be released before subsequent meetings.\"</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>Traders in the federal funds futures market, a federal watch tool, actually think that the possibility of a rate hike at next week's meeting is only 2.8%. This outlook will rise slightly by the end of the year, and by the end of the year, the market has priced in a 10.5% chance.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a53fe2bfff34fe94bc5b38381b06e0b7","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2130362553","content_text":"北京时间4月29日凌晨，美联储将公布利率决议及政策声明。华尔街预计美联储官员下周将描绘强劲的经济图景，但同时不会暗示未来政策的改变。\n投资者越来越信任美联储官员，因为他们表示，即使经济正以近40年来最火热的速度运行，他们也不会开始取消宽松的政策，直到明确复苏已站稳脚步。\n自去年3月疫情以来，美联储一直将短期借款利率维持在接近于零的水平，并持续每月购买至少1200亿美元的债券相关资产。购买资产使美联储的资产负债表达到近8万亿美元，大约是危机开始以来的两倍。\n不过，随着经济数据日益强劲，通胀压力开始增加，金融市场一直对美联储可能被迫开始收紧政策持怀疑态度。\n嘉信理财集团（Charles Schwab）交易与衍生品副总裁兰迪·弗雷德里克（Randy Frederick）表示：“只要美联储保持当前政策，经济前景就相当好，市场终于接受了他们的意愿。美联储提供的流动性将推动经济复苏，挑战在于他们何时决定收回这一做法。”\n美联储将对经济前景持乐观态度\n华尔街预期，美联储在下周结束为期两天的会议时，将对经济预期发出积极信号，但不太可能提供政策何时收紧的线索。\n凯投宏观(Capital Economics)资深美国经济学家Andrew Hunter写道，美联储的声明可能“对经济前景表现出更乐观的态度”，这可能是一段时间以来美联储发布的最积极的声明。\n与许多华尔街人士一样，亨特预计美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)及其同僚将提升对经济的看法，但他强调，目前距离联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在最近的会后声明中设定的“实质性进一步进展”指标仍有一定距离。\n鲍威尔最近在接受哥伦比亚广播公司“60分钟”节目采访时说，美国经济已经到达复苏的“拐点”，引起了市场的注意。但他也继续强调，劳动力市场需要在实现充分就业方面取得长足进展，实现对不同收入、种族和性别群体的包容。\n同样，在会后的新闻发布会上，美联储主席可能希望至少表现得有点谨慎，尤其是在可能加息和缩减资产购买步伐的问题上。\n布朗咨询公司固定收益部门负责人汤姆•格拉夫认为，美联储可能会三缄其口，等到可能的最后一刻再行动。“我怀疑这个月是否会有收紧信号，而且我认为收紧信号会突然出现。”\n华尔街有一种非正式的共识，即鲍威尔可能会在今年夏天开始谈论缩减购债规模，预计到今年年底，债券购买规模将温和回落。\n格拉夫称：“他们希望在升息前先缩减购债规模一段时间，他们希望创造一点灵活性。\"\n一个可能的缩减QE“时间表”\n高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家戴维•梅里尔克(David Mericle)表示，他预计美联储将在今年下半年的某个时间点“暗示紧缩”，2022年初开始行动。他预计，美联储最初将在每次会议上削减150亿美元资产购买规模。美联储一年开会八次，所以总数是相等的。\n不过，这些细节预计还不会公布。梅里尔克在一份给客户的报告中写道：尽管最近经济增长加速，但我们认为，对联邦公开市场委员会来说，开始暗示缩减购债显然还为时过早。“尽管鲍威尔主席最近开始将经济描述为处于一个‘拐点’……我们不认为他的意思是这是一个有关政策的信号。”\n花旗集团(Citigroup)经济学家安德鲁•霍伦霍斯特(Andrew Hollenhorst)表示，如果美联储决定今年开始缩减购债规模，它最早可能会在2022年底开始加息。\n“在4月的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)上，我们预计会看到一些微调，暗示近期数据会更强劲，但不会有关于紧缩的新正式指导。这可能是在4月和/或5月就业数据强劲之后，这两份数据都将在随后的会议之前发布。”\n根据芝加哥商品交易所的联邦观察工具，联邦基金期货市场的交易员实际上认为，下周会议上加息的可能性只有2.8%。到今年年底，这一前景将会略有上升，到今年年底，市场已经消化了10.5%的可能性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2067,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}