To The Moon

On February 19, 2025, Intel’s ( $Intel(INTC)$ ) stock soared 16.06%, closing at $27.29, marking its biggest single-day gain since March 2020. The rally was sparked by a flurry of reports: Silver Lake is nearing a deal to acquire a majority stake in Intel’s Altera programmable chip unit, while Broadcom ( $Broadcom(AVGO)$ ) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ( $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ ) are eyeing bids for other parts of the struggling chipmaker, potentially splitting it apart. After a punishing 2024 that saw Intel’s shares drop 60%, this surge reflects renewed investor hope—but with fundamentals unchanged, is it a fleeting peak to cash out on, or a sign of a long-term comeback?

Why Intel’s Stock Surged Today

The immediate trigger was a Bloomberg report that private equity firm Silver Lake is close to securing a majority stake in Altera, a programmable chips business Intel bought for $16.7 billion in 2015. This follows weekend buzz from The Wall Street Journal that Broadcom is mulling a bid for Intel’s chip design and marketing arm, while TSMC explores taking over some or all of its manufacturing plants, possibly via an investor consortium. These developments build on earlier momentum—a 23% weekly gain last week tied to U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s push for domestic AI chip production and hints of a TSMC joint venture. Bolstered by CHIPS Act subsidies, Intel’s strategic value is back in focus.

Yet, this isn’t Intel’s first brush with takeover rumours. Names like Qualcomm, Elon Musk, and Samsung have surfaced before, each briefly lifting the stock only to see it settle as talks fizzled. Today’s 16% jump fits this mould: a reaction to speculative “what ifs,” not confirmed deals.

The Takeover Rumor Rollercoaster: A Familiar Ride

History shows a pattern—rumours of acquisitions or breakups juice Intel’s stock by 10% or more, only to retreat when details stall. Past examples, like Qualcomm’s rumoured interest in 2023, saw quick spikes followed by pullbacks as fundamentals—weak revenue, thin margins—reasserted themselves. Today’s rally, driven by unconfirmed Silver Lake talks and “preliminary” Broadcom/TSMC discussions, echoes this. Posts on X highlight the split sentiment: some see a breakout, others a hype bubble. Without firm bids or deal closures, a near-term dip back toward $23-$25 seems likely, mirroring past cycles.

Fundamentals Still Lagging

Intel’s core story hasn’t shifted. The company’s 2024 woes—$13.4 billion in foundry losses, declining market share to TSMC and Nvidia, and a cash-strapped pivot to manufacturing—persist. The 18A process node, a potential game-changer, is sampling but unproven at scale. Today’s $27.29 close isn’t backed by earnings strength; it’s a bet on external saviours or a breakup premium. That gap between price and reality makes the rally vulnerable.

Why It’s a Good Time to Ship Today

Selling at $27.29 locks in a hefty gain—especially for those who bought at September’s $18.51 low. The Silver Lake deal, while promising cash for Intel, is still in negotiation, and Broadcom/TSMC talks remain informal. Regulatory hurdles, TSMC’s hesitation, and U.S. national security concerns could snag any breakup. This 16% pop is a rumour-driven peak—history suggests taking profits now beats chasing unconfirmed outcomes. Intel’s been here before: lift, then level off.

Still Bullish on Intel for the Long Term

Shipping doesn’t mean abandoning hope. Intel’s long game has legs. If 18A outperforms—potentially rivaling TSMC’s 2nm—it’s a reset. A Silver Lake-backed Altera spinoff or a Broadcom/TSMC deal could unlock value beyond today’s sum of parts. U.S. policy, from CHIPS Act billions to Trump-era domestic chip priorities, offers a slow-burn tailwind. At $27.29, the stock’s up but not overvalued against its potential—awaiting a dip to $23-$25 could be the play for patient bulls eyeing 2026 gains.

The Move: Cash Out, Reload Later

The data says to split the difference: sell now at $27.29, then watch for the pullback. Silver Lake’s Altera stake and Broadcom/TSMC buzz are rockets lifting Intel today, but gravity—unchanged fundamentals and deal uncertainty—looms. Pocket the 16%, stay poised. Intel’s not done, but it’s not $27-strong yet.

@TigerWire