To The Moon

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 🅱🅴🅰🆁🅸🆂🅷 📉📉

👀 Earnings on Monday after the 🔔

🚨📉💥 Tempus AI, Bearish Catastrophe Looms, $43 Plummet by March 💥📉🚨

“Even Yoda can’t save this Titanic freefall…”

Hold tight, traders, $TEM’s hype train just hit an iceberg, and the bears are steering it straight toward $43 by March. Tempus AI ($TEM) rocketed +180% YTD (X chatter, February 2025), but its 6-month chart screams capitulation. With Q4 earnings set for 24Feb25, insider sell-offs peaking, and technicals unravelling, this could be the ultimate bull trap.

As someone who’s chased AI moonshots, only to dodge bear traps at the last second, I’ve got a bad feeling about this one. Let’s dissect this Death Star of a setup, with surgical precision.

📊 Technical Breakdown, The Chart’s Screaming “Game Over”

The $TEM chart (as of 23Feb25) is a Guns N’ Roses tragedy, beautiful ascent, brutal collapse. A textbook rising wedge 🟥 (green trendlines from July 2024’s $30 to February’s $85.71 peak) shattered on 20Feb25, with Friday’s $68.09 close (-11.25%, WKRB News) plunging below the key $73 support.

The purple volume bars 📉 spike on down days, confirming seller panic, while the red horizontal line at $43 marks November, December 2024 support, the abyss ahead.

🔑 Key Chart Levels:

   •   Resistance: $70 🟡 — Now a brick wall after Thursday’s 14.5% drop, aligning with the upper wedge.

   •   Support: $55 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement), then $43 🔴 ~ The chart’s red line at $43 ties to prior consolidation and the wedge’s measured move.

Indicators Flashing Red:

   •   RSI: Crashed from overbought (72) to 48, signalling momentum’s death.

   •   MACD: Bearish crossover, locking in the downtrend.

   •   Volume Dynamics: Thursday’s 12.34M shares traded, below the 14.1M average, but spiked on the drop. X posts echo “sellers unloading.” No bounce confirms bearish control.

💡 $43 Target Logic: The wedge’s $30 height (peak $85.71 to base $55.71) subtracted from the $73 breakdown point gives us $43. This aligns perfectly with the red line intersecting late-2024 support, making $43 the ultimate downside magnet.

Short-term, Choppy decline. Medium-term, A Titanic plunge straight to $43.

🧮 Fundamentals, A House of Cards in AI Healthcare

$TEM’s AI diagnostics dazzle, but its financials? A horror flick. Market cap’s $10.72B, yet the company is bleeding heavily.

Vitals:

   •   EPS (TTM): -$8.52 😱

   •   ROA: -58.65%

   •   P/S Ratio: 16.74 — 🩸Nosebleed levels compared to;

      •   Guardant Health ($GH) ~8x

      •   Illumina ($ILMN) ~5x

      •   Exact Sciences ($EXAS) ~7x

Earnings Preview — 24Feb25:

   •   Expected EPS: -$0.20

   •   Revenue: $203.1M

   •   Analyst Ratings: 🟢 7 Buy | 🟡 4 Hold | 🔴 0 Sell (Yahoo Finance)

   •   Median 12-Month Price Target: $55 — a far cry from the $85.71 peak.

Growth is slowing — +35% YoY compared to 150%+ in 2023, while losses hit a staggering $801M in 2024. The $600M Ambry Genetics buyout (Business Wire, February 4) promises long-term growth but comes with dilutive shares and a $105M EBITDA loss, straining liquidity.

💥 In a cooling AI sector, $TEM’s premium is a glaring red flag, and this house of cards is wobbling.

🚨 Insider SOS — “Abandon Ship!”

Cue the Jaws theme. Insiders are bailing like it’s 1975 Amity Island;

   •   CEO Eric Lefkofsky: Sold 169,482 shares on 5Feb25 at $66.70-$68.07, plus 243K earlier at $70-$87 (~$19M total, TradingView).

   •   CFO & COO: Dumped 31,780+ shares on 18Feb25 (WKRB News, February 23).

   •   Total Insider Sales (12 months): $278.71M (Mi Valle).

Pre-earnings sales this massive scream lack of confidence. X chatter is loud with, “Insiders know the iceberg’s coming.”

Confidence? Sinking like the Titanic’s deck chairs.

📉 Market Context — Tech’s Wobbly Tightrope

The Nasdaq is up +8% YTD (as of 23Feb25) — but cracks are forming. High-growth, unprofitable tech like $TEM is faltering as hopes for Fed rate cuts wane (Bloomberg, February 21).

   •   AI hype is cooling, with $NVDA and $PLTR off their recent highs.

   •   $TEM’s P/S at 16.74 looks absurd against $SPY’s P/E of 22.

   •   Inflation is creeping up — 2.5% CPI (February 21) — triggering AI sector rotations.

💡 Rising inflation, sector rotation, and overvaluation, a recipe for a liquidity crunch.

🗓 Earnings Roulette — Hope or Hype?

February 24 is D-Day. $TEM’s Q4 earnings could either save the ship or sink it further.

Past Quarterly Performance:

Quarter End EPS Estimate Actual EPS Beat/Miss Surprise %

Sep 30, 2024 -0.31 -0.25 Beat +19.4%

Jun 30, 2024 -1.30 -0.63 Beat +51.5%

Mar 31, 2024 -0.66 -1.47 Miss -122.7%

Even with past beats, the slowing growth and insider selling don’t paint a bullish picture. Without a $210M+ revenue beat and stellar guidance, $43 seems inevitable.

💡 Actionable Trade Setups — Ride the Bear or Dodge the Blade

   •   Short Play: Enter below $70, target $55, then $43. Tight stop at $73.

   •   Swing Long (Risky): Consider a bounce at $43-$45 if earnings surprise — targeting $55.

   •   Key Watch: If $55 breaks, $43 is almost guaranteed.

   •   Options Play (Bearish): March 21, 2025, $65 puts — implied volatility ~45% could yield 2x-3x if $TEM hits $43.

💡 Newbies, watch volume spikes. Pros, hedge with puts or short CFDs.

🔥 The Bottom Line ~ My Take

$TEM is a sinking star in a galaxy of overhyped AI plays. The chart’s rising wedge breakdown 🟥, insider exodus, and shaky fundamentals scream “sell.”

Short interest is climbing, market winds are shifting, and the upcoming earnings feel like a last-ditch hail Mary. My call? $43 by March, a 37% drop from here.

As Han Solo once said, “I’ve got a bad feeling about this.”

🎤 Tiger Traders: Are you shorting this ride to $43, or banking on an earnings miracle? Drop your setups below, let’s battle it out Thunderdome style!

@TigerGPT: Is the plummet inevitable and what can you share about earnings on Monday?

📣 Please Like, Repost, Follow for razor-sharp setups and market zingers. Let’s outsmart the galaxy together! 🍀

Happy trading ahead! Cheers BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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