To The Moon

For the 3rd successive day, US market continued to consolidate. From a bird’s eye view, it’s the economic reports that turned investors’ nervous, driving them to sell. The “responsible” reports were: S&P flash US services PMI. US Consumer sentiments (final). US weekly jobless claims. S&P Flash US Services PMI. The preliminary US Services PMI for February 2025 was released on Fri, 21 Feb 2025. It came in at 49.7, falling below: Market expectations of “53”. January 2025's reading of 52.9. The unexpected decline pushed the services sector into contraction territory: Marking the first contraction in 25 months. Signaling a significant cooling in US service sector conditions. The final US Consumer sentiments report was released on Fri, 21 Feb 2025, reporting a significant decline to 64.7 from January's 71.7, marking the lowest level since November 2023. The -10% drop reflects growing concerns among American consumers about (a) inflation and (b) potential impact of new tariffs. Key findings from the report include: Inflation expectations surged, with consumers anticipating a 3.5% annual price increase over the next 5 to 10 years, the highest level since 1995. 40% of consumers attributed their inflation worries to tariffs, up by +13% from January’s 27%. More than 50% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the coming year, the highest since the pandemic recession. US Weekly jobless claims. Latest US weekly jobless claims report for week ending 15 Feb 2025, was released on Thu, 20 Feb 2025. It registered a slight increase in initial claims to 219,000, up by +5,000 from previous week. The “modest” increment indicates US labour market remains relatively stable despite recent developments. Falling Market. The “negative” knock-on effect of 3 economic reports signals a challenging economic environment ahead, with consumers bracing for higher prices and expressing pessimism about their financial prospects. Collectively, they depressed market sentiments and drove it down further. By the time market closed for the week: DJIA: -1.69% (-748.63 to 43,428.02). S&P 500: -1.71% (-104.39 to 6,013.13). Posted 19 new 52-week highs and 8 new lows. Nasdaq: -2.20% (-438.36 to 19,524.01). Recorded 67 new highs and 135 new lows. (1) On the NYSE: Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 2.64-to-1 ratio. There were 102 new highs and 119 new lows on the NYSE. (2) On the Nasdaq: Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 3.04-to-1 ratio. 1,087 stocks rose and 3,301 fell. Friday’s US exchanges were extremely volatile with trading volume reaching 17.06 billion shares compared with the 15.30 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. US market negative sentiments also had a negative effect on $Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$, one day after the bank reported its Q4 2024 earnings, after US market closed. Q4 2024 Earnings. Earnings per share (GAAP) : was $0.11, meeting expectations. (see below) NU Bank's earnings per share Revenue: was $2.99 billion, missing estimates of $3.17 billion. (see below) NU bank's revenue Net Income: was $552.6 million, up +85% YoY or +7.0% QoQ. Net Interest Margin: was 17.7% , down by -70 basis points due to (a) forex volatility and (b) NU’s deposit strategy in Mexico & Colombia. Total Customers: came in at 4.5 million. Purchase Volume: wa $32.2 billion (up from Q3 2024 but slightly below Q4 2023) FY 2024 Accumulated earnings. Revenue: was $11.51 billion, up by +58% YoY, indicating high growth trajectory. Net Income: came in at $1.97 billion, up by +91.26% YoY, compared to $ 1.03 (FY 23). This places NU Holdings among the most profitable financial institutions globally, while maintaining a significant excess capital position at the holding level. Net Interest Income : Increased by +57% YoY. Total customers : came 114.2 million, reflecting a +22.0% YoY increase. Acquisition numbers position NU as one of the world’s largest and fastest growing digital financial services platform. Stock Price Movement. Nu experienced significant volatility in the short trading week ending 21 Feb 2024. (see below) Started Tue, 18 Feb 2025 at $13.56 per share. By the time trading ended on Friday, it has fallen to $10.82. Friday alone saw NU fell by -18.89%, a day after the bank’s Q4 2024 earnings published. For the week, NU lost -22.19% in total. Technical Analysis. NU - Technical analysis using Moving Averages (ma) (1) Moving averages (ma): 20-day ma. NU is below it, implying short-term bearish sentiment. 50-day ma. NU is also below it, suggesting bearish momentum in the medium term. 200-day ma. NU is also below this long-term moving averages, indicating a bearish trend in the longer time frame. (2) Support & Resistant levels. Support level 1. $10.37. Support level 2. $9.91 Resistant level 1. $11.65. Resistant level 2. $12.47. Summary viewpoints: (mine only) In the short term, US market’s volatility may persist because of the following reasons: (1) Trade policy uncertainty: Potential implementation of new tariffs, especially on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, could create market instability; not to mention the 25% tariffs policy, on all other countries’ imports. (2) Inflation concerns: Possible inflationary pressures due to tariffs and geopolitical developments may impact consumer prices and market sentiment. (3) Federal Reserve policy: Uncertainty around the timing and extent of potential interest rate cuts could lead to market fluctuations. Should the Fed need to raise interest to manage rising inflation, the adverse effect on US market will be pronounced. (4) Economic data releases: Weaker-than-expected economic reports, such as business activity and consumer spending data, could trigger market reactions. The same applies to reports concerning US labour too. NU Holdings - Advantages. NU’s vantage points will be its partial shielded from short-term US market volatility, based on the followings: (1) Strong international presence: Nu has a significant customer base in Latin America, with over 114 million customers across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. The geographical diversification will help buffer against US-specific market fluctuations and policies. (2) Robust customer growth: The digital bank reported a +22% YoY increase in its customer base, reaching 114.2 million by end of 2024. The continuous growth may provide a stable foundation for revenue, potentially offsetting short-term market volatility. (3) Diversified product portfolio: NU has expanded its offerings beyond core banking services, introducing products like NuCel and NuTravel. Diversification of revenue streams could help mitigate the impact of market volatility on any single product or service. The challenge is monitoring and deciding the “good” times, to buy. Agree ? Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. PLTR -15% Tumble Equal BUY opportunity ? WMT leads US market tumble: Time to buy ? Decode US Economic Data : Invest Smarter ! Do you think US market will continue to pullback in the near term OR recover soon? Do you think NU’s line of businesses and operations geography minimizes exposure from Trump’s whims, policies and yet-to-be-thought-of policies ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents