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Worst-Case Scenario This Week

@OptionsDelta
When it comes to the tariff agreement, what exactly does Trump want? I don’t know. The market doesn’t know either. So, the approach seems to be to crash the market first and then figure things out later—hence the market drop. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Since we don’t know what the final tariff agreement will look like or what its future impact might be, newly opened options positions are concentrated on this week’s expiration dates. The thinking seems to be “just get through this week.” Institutions are selling calls at the 114–115 strikes and hedging with positions at 121–125. This suggests the stock’s upper limit this week is 114–115. On the bearish side, significant open interest has been observed for puts at the 105, 104, and 100 strikes. Among these: The 100 put is primarily dominated by sellers. The 105 and 104 puts are dominated by buyers. If the market is simply rehearsing a worst-case scenario, it’s likely the stock will finish above 100 this week. However, if the tariff agreement turns out worse than expected—if Trump demands excessively favorable terms—then it’s hard to predict. In that case, those buying strikes below 85 might be hedging against such an outcome. This week’s open interest is concentrated in the range of 100–115. For those selling puts, rolling positions could be a good idea. For selling calls, strikes above 122 are recommended. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ The stock with the most bearish sentiment this week appears to be $PLTR$, though it’s unclear why. One trader opened a position buying 56,600 contracts of the 60 put: $PLTR 20250425 60.0 PUT$ . Another trader opened 21,000 contracts of the 70 put: $PLTR 20250425 70.0 PUT$ . Both trades were executed on the exchange. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla, surprisingly, isn’t performing as poorly as expected. Institutions are selling calls at the 280–282.5 strikes and hedging with positions at 310–320, similar to last week’s upper limit for the stock price. On the bearish side, the expected lower limit is 220 under normal conditions. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ For $SPY$, this week’s expected price range is: Lower limit: 545 Upper limit: 570 $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ The most notable activity in Chinese stocks is in bearish options. For $KWEB$ and $FXI$, there has been a significant increase in volume for at-the-money puts expiring this week. As a result, Chinese stocks will likely track closely with U.S. markets this week.
Worst-Case Scenario This Week

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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