To The Moon

Elon Musk plans to resign from his role at DOGE by the end of May, potentially allowing him to refocus on Tesla. However, whether this shift will stabilize the automaker remains uncertain.

Tesla faces ongoing production challenges, weaker deliveries, and rising competition, raising concerns about further downside. With Q1 sales expected to drop significantly, will the data push the stock lower or trigger a relief rebound?

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Click titles to read the full analysis:

1. @Raj Tiger SG:

Key Points:

Elon Musk’s announcement to step down from his role at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) by late May has sparked mixed reactions. Musk claims his team has made significant progress in reducing the U.S. federal deficit by $1 trillion, cutting waste and fraud at an impressive rate of $4 billion daily. However, his involvement in the Trump administration has led to protests and backlash against Tesla, with critics targeting showrooms and expressing discontent over his political affiliations.

Tesla’s Q1 2025 delivery report is highly anticipated but may bring disappointing news. Analysts have revised their delivery estimates downward to between 351,000 and 375,000 units, citing challenges such as production changes for the Model Y and declining sales in key markets like Europe. If deliveries fall below expectations, it could mark Tesla’s worst quarterly performance since 2017. Despite this, some analysts remain optimistic about Tesla’s long-term growth potential.

The uncertainty surrounding Musk’s leadership and Tesla’s Q1 results raises concerns for investors. While Tesla stock saw a brief surge ahead of the delivery report, ongoing challenges—including overseas delivery issues and reduced demand—could weigh heavily on the company’s outlook. Musk’s departure from DOGE may allow him to refocus on Tesla, but whether this will stabilize the automaker remains to be seen.

2. @Emu23:

Key Points:

I don't expect Tesla to recover anytime soon. Whether or not he is in-charged of DOGE, Tesla will be boycotted by other countries and this will cause a downfall for it's stocks.

3. @Alpha Investing:

Key Points:

I believe current price has already priced in weakness barring black swan event. With musk withdrawing from doge, things should improve going forward.

4. @BtWin:

Key Points:

I don't expect it could bounce until new product launch and it must be cutting edge technology otherwise it could continue down to 150.

5. @KKLEE:

Key Points:

Q1 Deliveries: Will Tesla Disappoint Again?

Tesla’s Q1 2025 delivery numbers are expected soon, with analysts forecasting approximately 377,592 vehicles delivered. If this estimate holds, it would mark one of Tesla’s weakest quarters since Q3 2022, highlighting the growing challenges facing the company.

Several factors contribute to this weaker outlook:

Increased Competition: Companies like BYD continue to dominate the EV market in China, Tesla’s largest international market.

Production Constraints: Delays at Tesla’s Gigafactories have slowed production growth.

Brand Perception: Musk’s public persona and political involvement may have alienated certain customer segments.

If Tesla’s Q1 deliveries fall short of expectations, it could trigger another sell-off, further pressuring the stock price.

Stock Price Outlook: Can Tesla Hold $250?

With Tesla already experiencing a sharp decline in recent months, some investors wonder whether the stock can hold above $250 or if further downside is imminent. The bearish case suggests that continued production challenges, weaker deliveries, and increased competition could push Tesla even lower.

However, bulls argue that Musk stepping away from political distractions may allow him to refocus on Tesla’s core business, potentially improving investor sentiment. If Tesla manages to beat delivery expectations, it could provide short-term relief to the stock.

6. @Pigpen:

Key Points:

Musk took on a meaningless DOGE role that has only downside. his companies got targeted, sales are down. Unless he has a bigger game plan, doge didn't do him any favours.

7. @Ting2163:

Key Points:

I think the Tesla stock will continue to go down as the tariff war is not stop. Now it's just a beginning.

8. @KingDw:

Key Points:

Will Tesla Stock Drop to $220?

Technical Analysis:

• Support Levels: $220–$230 aligns with Tesla’s 2023 lows and represents a critical psychological and technical support zone. A break below this could trigger a slide toward $200 (pre-COVID highs) .

• Resistance: The failed breakout at $250 signals bearish momentum, with the 200-day moving average (~$260) now acting as resistance .

Fundamental Risks:

• Margins: Q1 gross margins are expected to fall to 11.1% (vs. 18.2% in 2023), potentially leading to an operating loss of $200–300 million .

• Demand: Weakness in key markets and rising competition (e.g., BYD, Xiaomi) could prolong the downturn .

Bear Case: If Q1 deliveries miss even the lowered consensus (~350,000) and margins disappoint, Tesla could test **$200–$****220** .

When to Buy the Dip? Strategic Entry Points

Aggressive Investors:

$200-$220: This range represents a 60%+ decline from 2023 highs and aligns with pre-COVID valuation levels. Accumulate if:

• Margins stabilize (gross margin >16%),

• Q2 deliveries show recovery (>410,000),

• Robotaxi/FSD updates reignite growth optimism.

Conservative Investors:

$150-$180: Wait for confirmation of demand recovery and margin improvement.

HSBC’s $130 target suggests deeper downside if fundamentals worsen.

Catalysts to Monitor:

• Q1 Earnings (April 2025): Margins and guidance will clarify the path forward.

• Robotaxi Event (August 8): Success here could shift focus to AI/software revenue .

• Policy Shifts: Trump’s potential EV tariff extensions or tax credits.

Questions for you:

With Q1 sales expected to drop significantly, will the data push the stock lower or trigger a relief rebound?

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⏰Duration

• 9 April (24pm EDT)