.SPX: Fatigue Factor & W-4
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!
1.
Fatigue Factor & W-4:
(1) The most relentless and blood-on-the-street w-3 of W-3 is complete at 4835 on Mon; an annoying phase--for both Bulls & Bears--the notorious w-4 starts now.
(2) the purpose of w-4 is to confuse ALL TRADERS, and take their money away--in other words, no logic, just sideway range bounds for a few days.
(3) One thing is crystal clear, that today's low at 4835 is not the low of this crash leg--no, far from it.
(4) using EWT terms, it is NOT EVEN THE BOTTOM OF W-3, let alone bottom of W-5.
(4) Based on the current structure, once 4835 is broken, the chopping range is getting larger and wider, throwing most traders under the bus.
(5) I have recommended the less experienced traders, also those with high blood pressure, forget the market for a few months, as it would be a miracle if you don't lose money.
(6) I will play some bear-side in the near future, as the DRUNKARD move early Monday released a lot of pressure--hitting most stops of bears and causing havoc / pains to those who are not fast enough--literally, there is simply NO WAY you can react in this type of market, where it jumped up & down 100+ points like nothing. The premiums of option are over the roof and very risky to play either side, if you fail to enter the RIGHT MOMENT and exit too.
(7) now, let's wait for Asia's open to examine further damage of this global tsunami. 🐼👁️🙏
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2.
Market for the Drunkard: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
(1) literally half drunk when the market opened with a large gap down--barely able to enter some 0dtx SPY 506 calls at $3.3 for another of my option account;
(2) a few minutes after filling, the price ticker seemed drunk too, with bid / ask switch randomly--with bids are 1 $ higher than asks, WTF.
(3) stopped out at $10 in half an hour. Then totally passed out. One hour snap later, now I am getting sober and finally realize what is going on--a fake news duped the market and then crashed back to reality.
(4) frankly, if I were not drunk, there is no way I will keep the position like this--as I fell asleep for 20-min after entering the position, right when the market got the rumor.
(5) Now, I am 100% cash, with 200K more to my account for the most ridiculous reason possible. I don't blame that, but I want to point out one thing: Only the drunkard can make money in this market. So, if you are rational and sober, get out of it, wait for it to make sense. [BTW, just heard on the news that Trump hiked another 50% tariff against China--wow, he is really playing with fire here--I know how Chinese authority would react to this type of pressure.]
(6) if SPX jumps again, I will buy more puts. For now, I am going to take a jet-lag nap. GLTA.
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