GOLD: Will it Enter the Shock Adjustment or Rebound Phase
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!
1.
Spot gold extended its losses on Monday (7 April), once losing the 3,000 round figure mark and refreshing its low since 13 March to $2,978.50, as international trade concerns rose, US stock index futures continued to plunge, and Japanese, Australian and New Zealand stock markets followed suit, as investors continued to sell gold to make up for their losses in the wider market meltdown.
Stocks in Europe and the US plunged on Friday and investors were already selling gold at the time, causing spot gold to plunge 2.47 % on Friday to close at $3,036.98. Fears of a full-blown trade war, possible EU countermeasures to full-blown US tariffs, US inflation data, and the RBNZ interest rate resolution will keep traders on their toes this week; after the drama surrounding US tariffs, this week's calendar of events in the US is relatively flat, with the more important releases being the Federal Reserve's minutes from its March meeting on Wednesday, the release of the US CPI on Thursday, and weekly jobless claims people University of Siegen Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$
2.
Looking at the daily chart, the price of gold has fallen sharply since its previous high near $3,168, and as of 7 April, it has fallen by nearly $200, the largest decline since this year's rally.
However, it is worth noting that the daily cycle of Bollinger bands did not open, which means that it is difficult to reverse the unilateral downward trend. From the MACD indicator, the DIFF line and DEA line above the zero axis of the dead cross, the green column gradually enlarged, but now the green column has signs of shortening, showing that the strength of the short side after the release of the previous period has weakened.
Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is currently at the level of 45 or so, in the neutral region, indicating that the market is relatively balanced between the forces of multiple and empty for the time being, but from the previous overbought region back down the trend is still more obvious. Overall, the daily chart shows that although gold has experienced a sharp decline, but the downward trend may be eased in the current position, the follow-up is expected to enter the shock adjustment or rebound phase .
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