To The Moon

On April 3, 2025, President Trump announced a global tariff policy, escalating trade tensions worldwide. Over the subsequent four trading days (from April 3), the stock performances of Tesla ( $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ), NVIDIA, and Apple diverged significantly. This article provides a horizontal comparison of their stock price movements, selling pressure, and underlying factors, with a focus on why Tesla emerged as the strongest performer among the three. We also examine Elon Musk's recent changes, his stance on the tariff policy, shifts in consumer and investor sentiment, the significance of the $220 price level for Tesla, and the ultimate drivers of its stock price.

Tesla

Stock Price Performance and Selling Pressure: A Four-Day Snapshot

Tesla

• Price Movement: Tesla's stock price remained remarkably stable over the four days, starting at $221.860 on April 3 and closing at $221.860 on April 8—a 0% change. The stock briefly dipped to $218.79 on April 8 but rebounded to $225.995 on April 9, reflecting resilience.

• Selling Pressure: Transaction volume showed minimal selling pressure. On April 3, volume was 92,877 with buying dominating (green bars). April 7 saw some selling (volume 62,585, red bars), but April 8 returned to buying (volume 31,292, green bars). Overall, Tesla experienced the least selling pressure among the three, with balanced buying and selling activity.

NVIDIA

• Price Movement: NVIDIA's stock declined by 3.02%, dropping from $99.300 on April 3 to $96.300 on April 8. The decline was steady, with the stock falling below key moving averages like the 50-day MA ($119.956), signaling a weakening trend.

• Selling Pressure: NVIDIA faced significant selling pressure, particularly on April 7, when volume spiked to 481,465 with selling dominating (red bars). April 3 and April 8 also showed selling (volumes of 240,833 and 341,249, respectively), reflecting strong bearish sentiment driven by tariff-related fears.

Apple

• Price Movement: Apple's stock fell by 2.27%, from $176.420 on April 3 to $172.420 on April 8. Like NVIDIA, it dropped below its 50-day MA ($226.999), indicating a bearish trend.

• Selling Pressure: Apple experienced moderate selling pressure. April 7 and April 8 showed selling dominance (volumes of 47,176 and 23,588, respectively, with red bars), but volumes were lower than NVIDIA's, suggesting less intense selling. April 3 and April 4 had buying dominance (volumes of 94,392 and 70,794, green bars), indicating a mixed response.

Summary of Performance

• Price Decline: TSLA: 0%, NVDA: 3.02%, AAPL: 2.27%. Tesla clearly outperformed, showing no net decline, while NVIDIA saw the largest drop.

• Selling Pressure: Tesla faced the least selling pressure, with balanced transaction volumes. NVIDIA experienced the most intense selling, particularly on April 7, while Apple's selling pressure was moderate.

Why Tesla Outperformed: Key Factors

Tesla's resilience amid Trump's global tariff policy can be attributed to several factors:

• Localized Production: Tesla's dual manufacturing bases in the U.S. and China (e.g., its Shanghai Gigafactory) reduce its direct exposure to tariffs. Unlike Apple, which heavily relies on Chinese manufacturing, or NVIDIA, which depends on Taiwan-based TSMC for chip production, Tesla can mitigate tariff impacts through localized production.

• Long-Term Growth Expectations: Despite recent challenges, investors remain optimistic about Tesla's future in autonomous driving and robotics. TipRanks (April 9) highlighted Tesla's potential in the $1 trillion robotaxi market, which may have bolstered investor confidence.

• Policy Dynamics: Some analysts speculate that Trump's tariff policies might favor domestic automakers like Tesla over traditional manufacturers (e.g., Ford, GM), providing a relative advantage.

In contrast, NVIDIA and Apple were more directly impacted:

• NVIDIA: Fears of reduced demand in China (18% of revenue via Singapore gray markets) and competition from China's DeepSeek AI model weighed heavily. The stock's high valuation also made it vulnerable to market corrections.

• Apple: Apple's reliance on Chinese manufacturing exposed it to cost increases (analysts predict a $350 price hike for high-end iPhones), while retaliatory Chinese tariffs threatened its sales in China.

Elon Musk's Recent Changes and Tariff Stance

Elon Musk's evolving role and public statements have played a significant part in shaping Tesla's narrative:

• Political Shift: Musk has shifted from a liberal stance to a more right-wing position, becoming a vocal supporter of Trump in 2024. In 2025, he served as a "special government employee" leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), aiming to cut federal spending. However, on April 1, Trump indicated Musk might soon leave DOGE, and by April 8, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed his departure post-DOGE, though he may remain an advisor.

• Tariff Opposition: Musk has openly opposed Trump's global tariff policy. On April 5, at an event with Italy's far-right Lega party, he advocated for "zero tariffs" between the U.S. and Europe, calling it a "free trade zone." On April 8, he posted a video of economist Milton Friedman on X, emphasizing free trade benefits. Despite private efforts to dissuade Trump, the latter announced a 50% tariff on Chinese imports on April 9 (totaling 104%), showing Musk's influence was limited.

• Criticism of Peter Navarro: Musk's feud with Navarro, Trump's tariff architect, escalated. On April 8 and 9, Musk called Navarro a "moron" and "dumber than a sack of bricks" on X, mocking Navarro's fabricated expert "Ron Vara." This public spat highlighted Musk's frustration with Trump's tariff direction, though it also raised concerns about his professionalism.

Consumer and Investor Sentiment: Data-Driven Insights

• Consumer Sentiment: YouGov's March 15 survey showed Tesla's U.S. impression score at a historic low of -12.7, with Democrats at -34.9. Protests intensified, including the "TeslaTakedown" in New York (March 1) and violence at dealerships (e.g., a Colorado dealership defaced, an Oregon dealership firebombed). AltIndex reported a 38% drop in online search interest and a 33% decline in website traffic, while German sales fell 76% in February (Washington Post).

• Investor Sentiment:

  Morgan Stanley's March 13 survey of 245 investors revealed 85% viewed Musk's political activities as "negative" or "extremely negative" for Tesla, with 59% expecting 2025 deliveries to decline (21% predicting a drop over 10%). Wedbush's Dan Ives called Q1 deliveries (336,681 vehicles, down 13%) "disastrous." However, Tesla's stock held steady from April 3 to 8, with buying dominating transaction volume, showing short-term investor resilience.

The Significance of the $220 Level for Tesla

TipRanks (April 9) highlighted $220 as a critical level for Tesla's stock:

• Technical Support: Historical data shows $220 as a psychological and technical support level, with lows around this mark in March (e.g., $227.75 on March 18) and April (e.g., $218.79 on April 8). The stock's rebound to $225.995 on April 9 suggests this level may hold in the short term.

• Analyst Perspective: Stone Fox Capital (via TipRanks) noted that holding above $220 could attract bullish investors betting on Tesla's robotaxi potential. However, a break below $220 might signal a bearish shift, prompting investors to "step aside and watch."

Ultimate Drivers of Tesla's Stock Price

While tariffs posed a challenge, Tesla's stock price over the four days was primarily driven by:

• Sales Performance: Q1 deliveries fell 13% to 336,681 vehicles, far below expectations (Morgan Stanley: 400,000). This led to a sharp drop earlier in April (from $268.11 on April 3 to $218.79 on April 8, an 18.4% decline), though the stock stabilized during the tariff days. Analysts like Deutsche Bank (predicting a 5% sales drop in 2025) and Munster (9% drop) underscore sales as a key concern.

• Consumer Sentiment: YouGov's data and protests highlight a brand crisis, with sales plummeting globally (e.g., 76% drop in Germany, 50% in China). This eroded Tesla's market share, particularly to Chinese competitors like BYD.

• Investor Confidence: Despite long-term concerns (85% of investors see Musk's politics as negative), short-term confidence held, as seen in the stable stock price and buying-dominated volume from April 3 to 8.

• Competition and Innovation: Tesla faces pressure from Waymo in the robotaxi space and delays in launching affordable models, which could further impact sales and investor optimism.

Conclusion

From April 3 to 8, 2025, Tesla outperformed NVIDIA and Apple amid Trump's global tariff policy, with a 0% price change compared to NVIDIA's 3.02% decline and Apple's 2.27% drop. Tesla's resilience stemmed from its localized production, long-term growth prospects, and potential policy advantages, while NVIDIA and Apple suffered from tariff-related supply chain fears and market exposure. Elon Musk's rightward political shift, his role in DOGE, and his vocal opposition to tariffs—coupled with his feud with Peter Navarro—added complexity to Tesla's narrative. Consumer sentiment toward Tesla deteriorated sharply (YouGov score: -12.7), driving sales declines, while investor confidence remained mixed, with short-term stability but long-term concerns over sales. The $220 level is a critical support for Tesla's stock, with a break below potentially signaling further declines. Ultimately, Tesla's stock price hinges on its ability to reverse its sales slump, rebuild consumer trust, and navigate competitive pressures in a tariff-laden environment.

@TigerWire