To The Moon

Was today the bottom? Are we finally in the clear?

That’s the question hanging in everyone's head right now -- from boardrooms to trading desks to Twitter feeds -- and after a day like this, it’s fair to ask. We just saw a broad, violent rally across indices. It wasn’t narrow. It wasn’t defensive. It looked and felt like the beginning of something.

But before we declare “blue skies ahead,” we need to be honest about where we are -- and what’s still missing.

Yes, today was progress. Meaningful progress. It was the first day in months where capital didn’t feel like it was just rotating between safety trades or hugging the sidelines. There was conviction. There was structure. There was breath.

But bottoms aren’t made in a day. They’re forged over time -- through repeated tests, failed rallies, recalibrated expectations, and finally, the emergence of clarity. And while today gave us a directional push, it didn’t give us closure. This wasn’t a V-shaped recovery, and it won’t become one. We’re still in the thick of a geopolitical regime shift -- one that’s not only rewriting our trade architecture but reshaping the entire framework through which capital allocates risk.

So yes, I’ve been cautious. Not because I’m bearish on innovation -- my portfolio is long 20 early disruptors in secular growth themes with plenty of runway. These are foundational infrastructure plays. But even with that conviction, I’ve kept some dry powder on the sidelines. When the rules of the game keep changing, you don’t go all-in. You wait. You watch. You protect optionality.

And then today happened. A signal. Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs -- for everyone except China. And while that might look like a footnote, it’s not. It’s a shift. A pivot from chaos to calibration. A sign that maybe -- just maybe -- we’re not driving policy off a cliff for the sake of theatrics. It’s not a peace treaty, but it’s the closest thing to a strategic signal we’ve seen in months.

Markets noticed. They ripped because, for the first time in a long time, the fog lifted. Just a bit. Enough to start modeling again. Enough to price forward.

But here’s where I’m holding the line:

I’m not taking the caution fully off the table until China comes to it. That’s the tell. That’s the endgame. Until we see re-engagement -- not rhetoric, but resolution -- this market remains in limbo. I’m not looking for a kumbaya moment. But I am looking for structure. A signed agreement. A framework for how this campaign ends. Because right now, we’re still in the thick of leverage games, not economic expansion. We’re still choosing who eats, not growing the pie.

If China signs? That’s a reset I can get behind. That’s when I pull the risk trigger. That’s when the “blue skies” call becomes real.

Until then, I need confirmation. I need to see $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ hold above 575 with volume and follow-through. I need $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ to sustain above 495. I need breadth to persist -- not just for a session, but for a sequence. I need to know this isn’t just another relief rally in a geopolitical market priced on tweets.

And let me be clear: I don’t expect a straight line up. There will be chop. There will be drawdowns. There will be fakeouts and failed breakouts. That’s the nature of bottoming in a market that’s being rewritten in real time.

But there’s a difference between navigating noise and flying blind. Today, we got a compass reading. Not a destination. Not even a roadmap. But direction. And that alone is enough to start re-engaging -- selectively, patiently, strategically.

Bottom line: I’m leaning in. Carefully. I’m rotating back into my highest-conviction names. I’m rebuilding exposure around the edges. I’m not betting the farm -- but I’m no longer sitting entirely in the bunker.

This may not be the bottom. But if it’s a bottom -- and if this move gets validated with structure, not just headlines -- then we’ll look back and say this is when the tone changed.

I’m here for it. I’m present. I’m ready.

And if China signs? I’ll be all in.

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