To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 🔥🚨 Why $252.81 Could Be My Signal for TSLA’s Next Big Rally 🚨

I’ve been glued to my screens, dissecting Tesla’s stock (TSLA) after its wild ride this week. Yesterday, I watched TSLA rocket up 22.69% to close at $272.20, its second-best single-day gain ever❗️❗️That surge hit me like a jolt of adrenaline, sparked by a broader market rally after Donald Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause, excluding China 🇨🇳 However now, as I sit here, I see the market has clawed back 60% of those gains, with TSLA trading around $253.83. Profit-taking is in full swing, and I’m wrestling with a question: is this dip my chance to jump in, or a sign to hold off?

For me, it all comes down to one number: $252.81. If TSLA closes above that level, I’m convinced it could kick off the next leg of a 🅱🆄🅻🅻🅸🆂🅷 run. Let me break down why I’m leaning this way, weaving together the technical signals flashing on my charts and the fundamental forces swirling in the background.

My Take on the Charts: A Setup I Can’t Ignore

I generally start with the technicals, they’re my compass in the chaos of the markets. Right now, TSLA’s chart is lighting up with signals that have me intrigued:

🟢 Stochastics at the Bottom: I’ve noticed the 5-minute stochastic oscillator has plunged to oversold territory. From my years of trading, I know this often means a bounce is brewing, especially when other pieces fall into place.

🟢 Gaps Waiting to Be Filled: I’m staring at open gaps above TSLA’s current price on the chart. These gaps, spaces where the price leapt between sessions, are like unfinished business to me. They tend to pull the stock back to fill them, and with gaps sitting higher up, I see potential for an upward move if momentum shifts.

🟢 VIX Pulling Back: I’ve been tracking the VIX, the market’s volatility gauge, and it’s just rejected higher levels. A falling VIX tells me fear is easing, which could give risk-on stocks like TSLA the breathing room to climb. If it stays below 50, I reckon the stage is set for a rebound.

The Bigger Picture: What’s Driving My Thinking

Charts are only half the story, I needed to dig into the fundamentals to see the full picture. Here’s what’s on my mind:

🟡 Tariff Pause Fallout: Trump’s tariff pause lit the fuse for yesterday’s rally, but I’m puzzled by the 60% retracement that followed. I suspect traders like me are cashing in, unsure how China might react to being left out of the deal. That uncertainty is a wildcard I can’t ignore.

🟡 Bonds in Freefall: I’ve been watching the bond market sell off, with the TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) sliding further. Normally, rising yields spook me for growth stocks like TSLA, hiking the cost of future cash flows. But I’m wondering if this is less about economics and more about geopolitics, could China be dumping Treasuries to flex its muscle? If so, I see it as a short-term hiccup, not a dealbreaker.

🟡 Market Mood Swings: I keep hearing whispers about the “Government Credit Card”, a nod to policy moves propping up markets. This tariff pause feels like one of those plays, but the quick profit-taking tells me confidence is shaky.

Why $252.81 Has My Attention

Here’s where I tie it all together. If TSLA closes above $252.81, I see a compelling case for a rally taking shape:

🟢 Support That Holds: I view $252.81 as a key support line. If it stands firm, I’ll take it as proof the pullback was just a breather in a bigger uptrend.

🟢 Momentum Ready to Flip: With stochastics oversold, I think a close above this level could flip the switch, pulling in buyers like me who’ve been waiting on the sidelines.

🟢 Gaps as Targets: Breaking $252.81 would give me confidence TSLA could sprint toward those open gaps, maybe even fast-tracking a double-digit move.

🟢 A Calmer Market: If the VIX keeps trending down and bonds settle, I believe the environment could fuel TSLA’s fire.

I’ve seen this playbook before. Late last year, I watched TSLA test a similar support after a big run, hold it, and then tack on 15% in a couple of weeks. I’m not saying it’s a sure thing, markets love to keep me guessing, but the pattern sticks in my head.

I also peeked at the options flow on Unusual Whales, and I spotted heavy call buying above $252.81. That tells me the smart money might be thinking along the same lines.

What Could Throw Me Off

I’d be lying if I said there’s no risk, I’ve been burned enough to know better. If TSLA can’t close above $252.81, I’ll start wondering if the profit-taking has more legs, maybe forcing a longer consolidation. And if the VIX spikes past 50 or bond yields keep soaring, I’ll feel the heat on TSLA’s downside.

🇨🇳 China’s next move is nagging at me too. If they’re selling Treasuries or stirring the pot, I could see markets wobble, dragging TSLA with them.

Where I Stand: Bullish, But Eyes Wide Open

So, here’s my call: I’m 🅱🆄🅻🅻🅸🆂🅷 on TSLA if it closes above $252.81. The technicals are screaming opportunity, and while the macro stuff is messy, I think the upside edges out the risks. I’m not diving in blind though, I’ll be glued to the VIX, bond yields, and any China headlines that could flip the script.

I’ve been poking around Unusual Whales’ options flow and it’s feeding my optimism with real-time trader moves. I’m curious what others make of this setup, bullish breakout or bearish trap? My gut says the former, but I’m always up for a good debate.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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