To The Moon

April 11, 2025

This Week in Review: Business as Usual... Isn’t

Uncertainty rules

Markets closed the week higher despite fresh tariff escalations, record inflation expectations, and shaken consumer sentiment. But underneath the rebound lies a powerful theme echoed across earnings calls, data releases, and executive commentary:

Nobody knows what comes next — and that’s the new baseline.

Banks Beat, But Caution Dominates Earnings Season Kickoff

First-quarter results from $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ , Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and BNY Mellon beat expectations. Still, the tone from the C-suite was marked by caution.

• Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick: “We do not know where trade policy will settle nor what the effects will be.”

• BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: “Uncertainty is dominating every client conversation.”

Despite early losses, bank stocks recovered with the KBW Bank Index closing up 0.6% Friday.

$XLF

Markets Rebound — For Now

• Dow Jones: +1.6%

• $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +1.8%

• $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +2.1% $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

All three major indexes snapped two-week losing streaks — even as China hiked tariffs from 84% to 125% and U.S. consumer sentiment hit a new low.

Data Signals a Consumer Squeeze

• University of Michigan Sentiment: Down over 30% since December

• Inflation Expectations: Jumped from 5% to 6.7% — highest since 1981

Retail demand, confidence, and spending behaviors are shifting rapidly as households feel the weight of both inflation and economic uncertainty.

Treasuries Lose Their Safe Haven Status

• 30-Year Yield: +0.48% → 4.873% — biggest weekly jump since 1987

• 10-Year Yield: +0.5% → 4.492% — largest since 2001

Investors sold both stocks and bonds this week, a disconcerting signal for traditional risk-parity strategies. As former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers noted: “U.S. debt is starting to trade like an emerging-market asset.”

Trade War Escalates, Clarity Evaporates

China’s latest tariff response effectively freezes trade flows with the U.S., while President Trump continues to raise stakes — waiting for a call from Xi Jinping that may never come.

Trade war

“There’s just no clarity,” said one supply chain broker. “Everyone’s guessing, and the rules change daily.”

The Week Ahead: Heavy Data, Key Earnings

Markets closed Friday for Good Friday. Before that:

Earnings:

• Monday: $Goldman Sachs(GS)$

• Tuesday: Bank of America, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson

• Wednesday: ASML, Abbott Labs, U.S. Bancorp

• Thursday: AmEx, Blackstone, $Netflix(NFLX)$ , Taiwan Semi, Charles Schwab

Economic Data:

• Wednesday: U.S. Retail Sales (Census Bureau)

• Thursday: ECB Monetary Policy Decision

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This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.