Trump’s 90-day pause on most tariffs could spur an S-REIT rebound amidst broad relief rally【CSOP Fixed Income Weekly】
【SRT】
Last week, SRT fell amid market risk-off sentiment following Trump’s escalating trade war. The decline was led by industrial, office and retail by subsectors and MLT, FLT, and MPACT by individual REITs.
Nevertheless, DBS notes that oversold S-REITs (~6.5% yields; ~4.0% yield spreads) has hit support levels. Trump’s 90-day pause on most tariffs could spur an S-REIT rebound amidst broad relief rally.
【MMF】
Last week, US Treasuries saw elevated volatility amidst the slew of tariff-headlines. Focus was on the trade-related news development and the FOMC minutes released was mostly ignored by the markets. Meanwhile, the latest CPI report released showed both headline and core CPI were 0.2% lower than consensus estimates on MoM basis.
We expect CSOPUMM to continue to deliver stable yield in the near term. As of 20250411, the fund has a net yield at 4.15%. ^
$CSOP US Dollar Money Market ETF Unlisted Share Class P(HK0000503836)$ Net 7-day Yield: +4.15%
^ 7-day net yield is calculated based on calendar days and NAVs in 5-decimal.
【CN】
Onshore-offshore funding spread widened last week, as renminbi weakened. This could be attributed to the economic impact of tariffs, which possibly resulted in the central bank being more prudent regarding its liquidity intervention. HSBC thinks this raises the probability of policy rate cuts in the coming days and weeks.
While some investors speculate that China could announce additional fiscal stimulus package to speed up spending (to counter US tariff hits), HSBC thinks it is unlikely in the near-term as the existing fiscal plan can still accommodate a speed up in spending, before considering additional stimulus later this year. As 1Y MLF loans worth RMB 100 bn mature next Tuesday and seasonal tax payment happens next Friday, funding premium could remain wide.
Looking at YTD performance as of 2025/04/10, CYC/CYB’s NAV gained +0.19% in CNY and fell -0.41% in USD*.
* CYC/CYB/CYX USD NAV is converted based on benchmark FX, subject to rounding error
Global Market Outlook
【SG】Singapore Responds to Escalating Global Trade Tensions: MAS Monetary Policy Easing and New Taskforce
All 14 economists polled by Bloomberg anticipate MAS to reduce the slope of the policy band of SGD’s nominal effective exchange rate. Separately, Prime Minister (PM) Lawrence Wong announced a new taskforce, chaired by Deputy PM Gan Kim Yong, to address economic uncertainties amidst escalating global trade tensions. This taskforce aims to bolster businesses and workers’ resilience and adjust to the new economic environment.
【US】Sparse Data This Week Shifts Attention to Trade Tensions and Fed Policy Clues
The data release calendar is relatively light, though markets will be bracing for any further tariff-related news. Speeches from FOMC members will also be scrutinised for clues on the Fed’s rate trajectory.
Source: CSOP, Bloomberg, JPM, and HSBC as of 2025/04/11.
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