To The Moon

$Chagee Holdings( $Chagee Holdings Limited(CHA)$ )$ $Mixue Group( $MIXUE GROUP(02097)$ )$ $Nayuki Holdings( $NAYUKI HLDGS LTD.(NYKHF)$ )$

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) burst onto the Nasdaq scene on Thursday, April 17, 2025, with a 15% surge, closing at $32.20 after peaking at $41.72—a wild 49% intraday spike. Yet, the stock closed below its opening price of $33.75, leaving investors wondering: Is this a signal to hold tight or cash out? Can Chagee mirror Mixue Group’s sustained success, or is it doomed to Nayuki’s downward spiral? Are market expectations overblown, and what’s a fair target price? Let’s dive into the data, comparisons, and analysis to unpack this IPO rollercoaster.

Chagee’s Big Day: Hype Meets Volatility

Chagee’s IPO priced at $28 per share, raising $411 million and pegging its valuation at $5.1 billion. The stock opened at $33.75 and soared to $41.72 before settling at $32.20—a 15% gain but a clear fade from its high. This volatility reflects strong initial demand (the IPO was oversubscribed) tempered by profit-taking or doubts about its staying power.

Here’s the breakdown:

Table: Chagee (CHA) First-Day Snapshot (April 17, 2025)

The tea chain’s fundamentals are robust: revenue nearly tripled to $1.7 billion in 2024, and net income jumped 213% to $344.5 million. With over 6,400 teahouses and plans for 1,000-1,500 more in 2025, Chagee’s growth story is tantalizing—but can it deliver?

Mixue’s Triumph vs. Nayuki’s Tumble: Where Does Chagee Fit?

Mixue Group (2097.HK)

Mixue crushed its Hong Kong IPO in March 2025, rocketing 43% on day one to HKD 290 ($37.10). Its affordable tea and ice cream, paired with a sprawling 46,000-store network, keep it thriving. The key? A low-cost, high-volume model that’s tough to beat in smaller cities.

Nayuki Holdings (2150.HK)

Nayuki’s premium tea play hasn’t aged well. After its 2021 IPO, it’s down 45% over the past year, languishing at HKD 1.71 in April 2025. High prices and a focus on saturated urban markets left it exposed to competition and economic slowdowns.

Chagee’s Position: Chagee leans premium like Nayuki but scales fast like Mixue. Its $5.1 billion valuation demands flawless execution—something Nayuki couldn’t manage. If Chagee nails expansion without sacrificing margins, it could chart Mixue’s course.

Are Market Expectations Too Lofty?

Chagee’s $5.1 billion valuation implies a 3x price-to-sales ratio—steep but not absurd for a growth stock. Bulls point to its 167% revenue surge and 20% net margins (outpacing Starbucks). Bears flag slowing same-store growth and a hefty $1.5 billion marketing tab in 2024. Plus, U.S.-China trade tensions could spook investors, though Chagee insists cross-border trade isn’t its core.

The 15% debut pop shows enthusiasm, but the drop from $41.72 to $32.20 hints at skepticism. Is $5.1 billion too rich? It depends on whether Chagee can keep its growth engine roaring.

Visualizing the Surge:

Target Price: Balancing Risk and Reward

• Bullish Case: If Chagee’s expansion pays off and margins hold, $38-$42 is in reach by Q4 2025.

• Bearish Case: Trade risks or growth hiccups could pin it at $28-$32.

• My View: I’m pegging a near-term target at $36. It’s a 12% upside from $32.20, reflecting solid fundamentals but factoring in volatility and macro uncertainty.

Hold or Fold?

• Hold: If you’re long-term bullish, hang on. Set a stop-loss at $29 to guard against a sharper dip.

• Sell: Locked in gains above $35? Consider taking profits—volatility could bite.

• Buy: Newcomers might wait for $30—a better entry if sentiment sours.

My Stance: I’d hold with caution. Chagee’s got legs, but the market’s jittery. Confidence hinges on its next earnings report.

Your Turn: Chagee’s Fate?

Will Chagee soar like Mixue or fade like Nayuki? What’s your price target? Sound off below—let’s hash it out!

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